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NBA Season Record: 207-152 (58%)
NFL Season Record (so far): 25-22, +14 units
Premium Record: 20-10, +16.35u
*MLB(1u): Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 9(-120)–6:07 PM CT
These two teams as well as the Red Sox find themselves in a battle for the 2 AL Wild Card spots entering this final week of the season. The Yankees enter this series riding high off a sweep in Boston, but the Blue Jays have caught fire over the past month to put themselves in this position. Rather than look at a side in this game, I think the Over has quite a bit of value. Blue Jays SP Hyun Jin Ryu has been reliable throughout his career, but he’s struggled to adjust to pitching in the Rogers Centre. In his 6 starts in Toronto this season, he has nabbed just 2 quality starts. The Yankees lineup is still prone to inconsistency, but they’ve shown me enough down the stretch of the regular season to lead me to believe they’ll put together some good swings tonight. After Ryu, I have little to no faith in the Blue Jays bullpen; the Yanks should have ample opportunities in the late innings to add some runs. However, Toronto’s offense is on another level, and they’ll get a favorable matchup tonight. Yankees SP Jameson Taillon had found his groove after the All Star Break but unfortunately has been on the IL for over 3 weeks. His overall numbers for the season aren’t great, and his 1.6 HR/9 especially doesn’t match up well with this dangerous Toronto offense. The Yankees bullpen is clearly more reliable than Toronto’s, but I still believe they’re prone to late inning meltdowns. I understand that totals will tick down as the games get more meaningful, but this is too big of an adjustment. I like the Over in this AL East showdown as my best bet tonight.
I started out the week 1-0 with a winner on the Cowboys last night, which brought my September record to 36-30-1, +12.66u. Today, I’m rolling with 2 MLB plays, 1 of which is reserved for premium members. Those plays have hit at a 67% clip and netted my members +16.35u in just 1 month. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*MLB(1u): Brewers/Cardinals F5 UNDER 3.5(-110)–6:45 PM CT
The Brewers have locked up the NL Central title, while the Cardinals have used a 16 game win streak to all but lock up a spot in the NL Wild Card game. However, each of these teams still have unfinished business over the final week of the regular season, and this division matchup sets up to be a low scoring game. Adam Wainwright is perhaps one of the easiest pitchers to back when pitching at home; this season, he has recorded a 2.72 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 0.7 HR/9 pitching at Busch Stadium. The Brewers are led by their pitching and frankly aren’t that impressive with the bats; Wainwright has good numbers against this Milwaukee lineup both this season and throughout his career. Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff also has good numbers against the opposing lineup and has a WHIP below 1.00 pitching at home and on the road this season. The Cardinals have done virtually everything well over their magical win streak, but this lineup is vulnerable to getting overmatched by a pitcher of Woodruff’s capability. I trust each of these SP’s far more than I trust either lineup, and considering the ramifications of this game, I’d expect to see a very low scoring game in St. Louis tonight.
Key Injuries:
Waiver Wire:
Non-Starters trending up for week 4:
Busts for week 4:
Nasty Sleeper: Chuba Hubbard. He will get all CMCs workload and more.
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Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers or tweet @SportsWagerU. Thank you very much for reading this and best of luck in your endeavors!
Respectfully,
Kiev O’Neil
Baseball is still happening and the MLB playoffs are upon us. Here’s my free play for your Tuesday slate– we’re a crazy 40-20 (66.6%) over the last 7 weeks! For premium plays in baseball, football, and every sport moving forward, click here and become a part of the winning team! Check out my results on Twitter, you won’t be disappointed!
Phillies/Braves under 7.5 (-105), 2 units: It’s been nearly two months since these two teams faced off and now they’re neck and neck leading up to the NL playoffs. Atlanta leads Philly by 2 games in the NL East and this series should decide who will take the crown. Tonight both teams will send out two of their better starters– Zach Wheeler for the visiting Phillies and Charlie Morton for the home team. Morton has seen some negative regression over the last month, averaging 4 hits and just over 2 runs allowed over his last 5 starts. Not bad overall, but I’m sure the bullpen and Morton expect better results. Zach Wheeler continues to perform at a very high level, permitting only 3 runs in his last 23 innings. This is one of those high-tension, primetime spots, in essence it’s a playoff series, and I expect these two commanding throwers to keep this game low scoring. I’m on the under.
*UCL: Borussia Dortmund Win & Over 1.5 Goals (-134) vs. Sporting Lisbon
The main thought behind this pick is simply that Dortmund are just the much better team who score lots of goals. Simple. After winning four Bundesliga games on the bounce, they lost a tough match against Monchengladbach on Saturday and will be keen to get back to winning ways. The game will be played at home for Dortmund who have yet to lose a single home game in the Bundesliga this season. Not only that, Dortmund have scored 17 goals in six games in the league which is second most, only trailing Bayern Munich. When looking at Sporting Lisbon, they have lost seven out of their last eight away games in the Champions League group stages, and also lost 12 in their last 13 previous matches away to German competition. They are very inexperienced on the Champions League stage and are playing a Dortmund side who succeed in this competition every season. Sporting were defeated 5-1 by Ajax earlier this month in the first group game where they looked very vulnerable defensively. They now play a Dortmund side who have riches of attacking talent that is seen as superior to Ajax’s, who smashed 5 goals past them. *Take Dortmund and Over 1.5 goals.
*Another quality pick would be to take Dortmund to win & BTTS (+230) Sporting have some decent attacking players to play through. They are good on the ball and can certainly score goals. Dortmund have allowed 12 goals in six Bundesliga games this season and allowed a weaker Besiktas side to score against them in the first group game. Still expect dortmund to win this game, but don’t be surprised if Sporting sneak a goal in somewhere along the way.
*UCL: Liverpool to Win vs. FC Porto (-125)
Liverpool head into this game in top form. They have scored three goals in each of their last five games and look very solid on both ends of the pitch. After a disappointing 3-3 draw against Brentford this weekend, another bounce back game is in order, it’s rare to see a team of Liverpool’s stature drop points and concede goals two games in a row. In a group dabbed as the “group of death” every single game is a must-win. No better time for the reds to get that win than against Porto, a side that has conceded more goals (11) in the Champions League against Klopp’s Liverpool than any other team. Not to mention, Liverpool have won four of their last five Champions League group stage matches away from home. In the group of death that consists of AC Milan and Atletico Madrid, this may be seen as the easiest game for Liverpool in the group this season, so expect them to pick up all three points. *Take Liverpool to win.
*PICKS:
We have a great show for you today! 23-18 in the NFL and 35-23 in College so far this year. Teasers were a hot commodity in the NFL betting world this week. First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Week 4 and NFL week 3 with some massive upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football week 5 and NFL Week 4. Next, Kiev gives out a nice College Football FREE PLAY for week 5! Then, D-Nasty comes on to discuss Fantasy football week 4! Who was injured this week? Waiver wire analysis. Non-starters trending up and players that could bust. Finally, the guys give out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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I took a step back in both CFB and the NFL over the weekend, but I’ve still been profitable in each this season(+9.81u in CFB, +1.35u in NFL). My premium plays have gone 20-10 and netted my members +16.35u over the last month. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NFL(1u): Cowboys -3(-120) vs Eagles–7:15 PM CT
The Cowboys enter their first home game of the season fresh off a road win against a very good Chargers team. Through 2 games, Dak Prescott looks like he hasn’t missed a beat; he’s completed 76.5% of his passes against TB and LAC. The run game improved mightily from Week 1 to Week 2, which is necessary to balance out their dangerous passing attack. Dallas will present a tougher test than Atlanta and San Fran did to this Eagles defense, and quite frankly, I’m not very high on this Eagles team. If you take away a single 91 yard completion to Quez Watkins last week, Jalen Hurts was just 11/22 with 99 yards against the 49ers defense. While the Cowboys’ defense still has its questions, they’ve been able to neutralize the run through 2 games. Tonight, I expect them to key in on Myles Sanders and make Jalen Hurts beat them with his arm and mind. Perhaps Hurts finds his rhythm throughout the season, but I have no trust that he can go back-and-forth with an efficient and proven QB like Dak Prescott. It’s also worth noting that this is Jalen Hurts’ first career road start with a full stadium. I think this line should be closer to 5 or 5.5, so I see quite a bit of value in laying the field goal with the home team here on Monday night.
