Today we have a higher total in this matchup between GB and NOR set at 49.5, with 72% of the $ on the UNDER. New Orleans comes into the season with the 4th ranked total defense but lost quite a few pieces from last year. Green Bay’s defense was better than expected last year ranking 9th in the NFL last year. I believe the money is on the under due to a couple of factors.
NOR comes into this one banged up, missing some offensive pieces and their kicker. With Winston starting for the first time in a couple seasons, perhaps people are expecting a learning curve. But with coach Sean Payton having the ability to stretch the field for the first time in a couple years I don’t expect GB to keep the Saints off the board for the whole game. I’m not as down on Winston as many are, I think he was a great pickup for the Saints last year.
We all know what Rodgers is capable of, and in the neutral setting of Jacksonville, crowd noise shouldn’t be an issue for either QB. Add to that, NOR’s CB Lattimore was questionable coming into this one and they have several new faces on the defensive side. I’ll go against the majority on this one, jump on the line move, and take the over!
We ended up 3-2 yesterday and bring our College Football picks to 9-2 on the year! I have 3 NFL plays for today and am giving out one of them below. Our recent track record is 28-12 (70%) L40 plays overall!! Get our Premium Picks, daily packages and subscriptions at the SPORTS PICK HUB!!
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The Los Angeles Chargers are on the road as they travel to the east coast to face the Washington Football Team Sunday afternoon. Last season, The Chargers were 18th in the league in scoring offense by averaging 24 points per game while they finished 23rd in scoring defense as they gave up an average of 26.6 points a contest. Justin Herbert is back after an outstanding rookie season under center. He completed 396 of 595 passes for 4,336 yards with 31 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Herbert was sacked 32 times for 218 yards in losses though he did finish with 234 rushing yards and five scores on the ground.
Last season, Washington was 25th in the league in passing offense with 216.6 yards per game while they were 26th in the league in rushing offense by grinding out 100.7 yards per contest. The Football Team was just 25th in scoring offense with an average of 20.9 points per contest though they were a sparkling fourth in scoring defense by limiting opposing teams to 20.6 points per game. Fitzpatrick steps up to run the offense after completing 183 of 267 passes for 2,067 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions with Miami last year. Seeing how the Chargers struggled defensively a season ago and the improvements that Washington made to their offense, in addition to the 10 am PT kickoff that the visitors have to contend with, you have to give the edge to the Football Team in this one. In addition, the sophomore slump is a real thing and he will be protected by a mediocre offensive line this season. That spells disaster for the Chargers as they are going up against on of the best D-lines in the NFL. I look for Herbert to struggle against Washington’s excellent defense and for their improved offense to take advantage of a bad Chargers defense. Take Washington ML -113
This game has the makings for a shootout but my question is, how much has Tennessee’s defense actually improved? Their top 3 free agency moves were Bud Dupree, Denico Autry and Janoris Jenkins. My issue with Tennessee is that they have a very soft secondary ranking 28th against the pass last year giving up 270+ yards though the air but they did some things to fix that over the preseason. I have to think that Mike Vrable is embarrassed by it. Arizona on the other hand got hot at offense adding AJ Green and Rondale Moore. They also beefed up that pass rush with the JJ Watt addition. As a whole, I do not like what Arizona has done in free agency and the draft to stop the run. I like JJ Watt but he is more of a pass rushing 5 technique. I like the Zaven Collins draft choice but I think some DTs were needed as well. Tennessee’s strength is obviously running the ball with Henry and that really plays into Arizona’s weakness of not being great against the run. I see many ways that the Titans cover this spread
Tennessee -3 – 2 stars and lean over 52
LA Chargers vs Washington PK O/U 44.5
This spread is pretty much saying what people’s perception is of the NFC East when the best team in that division is a home PK vs the 2nd perceived best team in the AFC West.mmI really like new coach Brandon Staley for this Chargers team. I think that him and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi will gel and create a very successful team. From a power ratings perspective, I have the Chargers 1.5 points better than Washington on a neutral field which should make Washington about a 1.5 point favorite. My problem with the Chargers is that new coaches do not usually do well their first game. As a matter of fact, it would be somewhat embarrassing for River Boat Ron to lose in this situation. I think that you get an extra push from your team. Now I am not sure who we are going to get at quarterback today. Fitzmagic or Fitztragic, but what I do know is that killer Washington defense will show up and that is the only thing for both teams that I can trust.
Washington PK – 2 stars
Teaser Time: We gave out our Teaser on the podcast but here is a small one that I am playing. Bears to +15 and the Browns to +10.5 – 1 star
Hi all! Throughout the NFL Season, every Sunday, I’ll list the Circa Picks I entered into the contest (follow our entry @FarleyBets), and I’ll post my survivor pick as well. Check it out every week and let me know if you have any questions (@ChrisRFarley1 on Twitter).
*3 Star Free Pick* The Denver Broncos defense was good last year, and it should be even better this season. Denver doesn’t have any real weaknesses as a defense. I’m especially impressed with their secondary. The Broncos have multiple very good defensive coaches on the staff, and they will make a lot of teams have a very difficult day this season.
The New York Giants defense was far better than many realize last year. They were put in terrible spots by an offense that was just brutal. They’ll be put in those same bad spots again this year, but I expect the defense to be solid again.
There is some wind in the forecast here, which is helpful for the under. Both of these quarterbacks are likely to be game managers in this one.
Take the under.
*Coming off an 8-0 day on paid plays. Join in today!*
Sunday card has the 100% Opening Week NFL Play of the Year along with an Executive Level TIER 1, The NFL Total of the Month, MLB and Soccer. NFL Comp Play below.
\The NFL Comp Play is on Atlanta at 1:00 eastern. The Falcons fit a solid early season Power System here today and we note that the host team has covered the last 5 in the series, while Philly has failed to cover 5 of 6 here over the years. The Falcons are 11-2 in their opening home game with Matt Ryan and 7-1 ats in the first 4 games vs NFC East teams. The Eagles are rebuilding and looked terrible in the preseason. The Eagles have struggled failing to cove 12 of the last 13 in dome games. Look for the Falcons to get the win and cover. On Sunday a huge card is up and led by the Perfect System Opening Week Play of the Year, the Executive Level TIER 1 Play, The Total of the Month and more. There is also Top Level MLB and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter toJump on and cash out. For the NFL Comp Play. Go with the Falcons. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
Last week, we started the season going 6-0 in College Football! I have 5 CFB plays for today and am giving out 2 below. Our recent track record is 25-10 (71%) L35 plays overall!! Get our Premium Picks, daily packages and subscriptions at the SPORTS PICK HUB!!
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The Texas A&M Aggies visit the Colorado Buffaloes Saturday at Empower Field at Mile High for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Aggies are fresh off of a 41-10 win over Kent State in its opener and Colorado cruised past Northern Colorado 35-7. Colorado will certainly have the home-field advantage, but this game is not being played in Boulder. Instead, the Buffaloes and Aggies will travel to Denver for this “neutral-site” game, however, it is just 29 miles away from CU campus. It will be interesting to see what the how each of these freshmen quarterbacks perform against better defenses in Week 2. Colorado QB Brendon Lewis got his first start against Northern Colorado and was decent, hitting on 10 of his 15 passes for 102 yards. With the Buffs getting out to the early lead and running the ball effectively, Lewis did not need to put the ball in the air much. Colorado ranked 23rd in the nation in running the football and has 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen back from last season. Last week, the Buffaloes ran the ball for 281 yards against Northern Colorado and had 16 of their 22 first downs come via the ground game. A&M returns nine starters on defense and ranked 2nd in the nation in rush defense a season ago, but there is still a lot of youth on that side. Kent State ran for 235 yards and averaged 5.0 yards per carry against the Aggies. A&M’s freshman quarterback Haynes King is dealing with plenty of pressure as he replaces Kellen Mond. King got off to a choppy start last week, completing 21 of 33 attempts for 292 yards with three interceptions and two touchdowns. He’ll need to be sharper this week as the talent level he’ll face takes a considerable step up. The Buffaloes have seven returning starters on the defensive side of the ball and have a decent pass rush so the Aggies new starters on the O-line will have to jell quickly in this game. Both of these squads will look to establish the run early and put pressure on the freshmen quarterbacks. The key to this game will be who can run the football more effectively. I am anticipating the Buffs to run the ball enough to make this game close and to cover the spread while keeping the total under the projected points scored. Take Colorado +17 and Under 50.5.
This got to +14 on Thursday and I put in a play on Buffalo
Buffalo, new head coach, returns just 4 starters on offense and they came out last week in their opener running the ball for over 300 yards and playing good defense. It was against Wagner who is a lower tier FCS team but the point is, this Buffalo team didn’t look to miss a beat.
Nebraska blew out Fordham last week but allowed 4.6 yards per carry and had only 1 sack on defense. I believe we learned a lot about Nebraska in their opener at Illinois with their coach coming into the season probably needing a good season to save his job and they didn’t look to have learned or improved on what they have struggled with in recent years.
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When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNaction, and I have one for you on Saturday in college football.
San Diego State travels to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night. The Aztecs feature a solid rushing based offense. They have 4 of 5 lineman back from last year and RB Greg Bell who averaged 5.6 Yards per carry in 2020. Arizona allowed almost 6 yards per carry on the ground last year. QB Jordan Brookshire for the Aztecs is however not great. He went 6 of 19 for 76 yards and a pick in the opener. The Aztecs defense is their strength. They return 7 of 11 starters from 2020 and look like they are primed for another good year slowing teams down.
Arizona has a new head coach and didnt play awful in their opener vs BYU. I’m not sold on BYU this year however so I dont think its any sort of an indicator that an 8 point loss to them shows improvement for AZ. They did throw the ball successfully for 345 yards against BYU, but really struggled rushing it totaling only 81 yards on the ground. That will continue to be a problem here against the experienced front 7 for SDSU. Arizona’s defense had a decent showing against BYU allowing 368 total yards, but their rushing defense is going to bite them tonight.
I have this game as San Diego -5.5, so getting points here makes this a really solid play. Good luck today and I’ll be watching late night with you this evening. SDSU +2.5 1.5 Units.
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CINCINNATI, OHIO - OCTOBER 04: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the 33-25 win against Jacksonville Jaguars at Paul Brown Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
*NFL(1u): Cardinals/Titans OVER 53.5(-110)–Sunday Noon CT
I fully acknowledge that this is a square play, but I’m still going to jump on this Over. Put simply, I believe there is too much offensive talent for each of these defenses to deal with. The Titans were already really good on offense last season, and now that they’ve added a truly elite WR in Julio Jones to pair with all-pro RB Derrick Henry, the sky is really the limit for Tennessee. The Cardinals defense is set up well for the future at the LB position, but the additions of JJ Watt and Malcolm Butler aren’t going to pay off the dividends most people think. With that said, this Titans defense is totally untrustable and will likely be in the bottom-third of the league once again this year. Kliff Kingsbury has a dynamic QB to work with in Kyler Murray as well as a star WR in Deandre Hopkins, so paired with Kingsbury’s genius offensive mind, the Cardinals should have a great gameplan here in Week 1. I acknowledge this is square, but I think we’ll see even more of a shootout than this total implies.
*NFL(1u): Vikings/Bengals OVER 47(-110)–Sunday Noon CT
There are many questions surrounding Joe Burrow’s effectiveness coming off a torn ACL, but I tend to think he’s going to be just fine. The Bengals wouldn’t be putting their franchise QB at risk in Week 1 if he wasn’t ready to go. While there’s questions surrounding the weapons around Burrow, it helps that the Vikings are nothing more than a mediocre defense. Luckily for the Vikings, the Bengals defense will feature a ton of new faces and shouldn’t provide much of a threat to their uber-experienced offense. Kirk Cousins gets a lot of hate, but he is plenty capable of managing an NFL offense, especially considering the amount of talent he has around him. I expect the Vikings to come out strong in this one, forcing the Bengals to go on the offensive when they have the ball. If the Bengals keep it close from the start, I still trust the Vikings offense down the stretch. There are too many situations in which the Over hits at this number, so I will play the value.
If you noticed, I put quotations around the “@ Saints” because this game will not be played in New Orleans. Rather, due to the hurricane that ravaged NOLA, the Saints will play this game in Jacksonville. Sure, Saints fans will likely travel pretty well, but they simply won’t enjoy the same home-field advantage that they would’ve in the Superdome. I’m all for second chances, but I have serious questions about Saints QB Jameis Winston entering this season. The talent has always been there, but INT’s have absolutely crippled the former #1 overall pick. The Packers defense isn’t great, but I would still consider them above average; they are more than capable of making a fool out of Winston on Sunday. While there was a ton of drama between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this offseason, I don’t see that carrying over to the field. Plenty of guys have had bad relationships with management only to see it have no impact once the helmet gets strapped on. Rodgers has a great connection with Davante Adams, and there is enough around him to expect a good Week 1 performance. This line is begging you to take the 3-and-a-hook with New Orleans; I’m going to put my faith in one of the greatest QB’s off all time and take the Packers to win this game by a TD.
