*NFL(1.5u): Panthers -4(-110) vs Jets–Sunday Noon CT
The verdict is still out on whether Zach Wilson is the man for the job for the Jets, but it’s clear that this is a tough spot for the rookie QB. With Christian McCaffery back healthy, I think the Panthers are a sleeper team that is being undervalued by the betting markets. Matt Rhule has a season in Carolina under his belt, and his OC Joe Brady now has a highly skilled QB to work with in… that’s right, former Jets QB Sam Darnold. I expect Darnold to fit in much better in Carolina under Brady than he did in New York, and you know he wants nothing more than to stick it to his former organization that set him up for failure. The Jets have a better coaching regime that sets them up for long-term success, but it’s unrealistic to expect Zach Wilson to go win on the road in his first career start with what’s still a below average roster. I think the Panthers jump out to an early lead and control this game from start to finish. This is my play of the week for the Week 1 NFL slate.
*NFL(1.5u): Steelers/Bills UNDER 48(-110)–Sunday Noon CT
Because the Steelers had a rough finish to the 2020 season following an 11-0 start, many people aren’t very high on them this year. I am not one of those people; this line(Bills -6.5) is a slap in the face. However, rather than play the Steelers side, I’m going to go heavy on the Under. Led by DE TJ Watt, this Steelers defense is going to give Josh Allen and the Bills all they can handle; being that it is Week 1, I don’t expect the Buffalo offense to be at their sharpest. Ben Roethlisberger has slimmed down almost 30 pounds since last season and figures to be a bigger asset for the Pittsburgh offense, but the Steelers will have nothing handed to them playing in a hostile environment. Pittsburgh’s issues last year stemmed from not being able to establish the run; while rookie RB Najee Harris figures to help change that narrative, this is not the matchup you’re going to see them start running the ball effectively. This total is simply too high given that it is just Week 1 and the environment expects to be pretty electric.
Oct 3, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren (middle) leads the team onto the field to play the Pittsburgh Panthers at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
*3 Star Free Pick on NC State* The NC State Wolfpack are a team I’m a lot higher on than most people this year. While NC State did go 8-4 last year, they were actually without their best quarterback (Devin Leary) for much of the season after he suffered a major injury. Bailey Hockman did a nice job for the team, but their upside is higher with Leary. Fortunately, Leary is back and the NC State offense is filled with a ton of skill position talent this year.
NC State’s Bam Knight and Ricky Person form a great tailback tandem. Both ran for over 100 yards last week against USF. It won’t come nearly as easy this week against a solid Mississippi State defense, but these are two good running backs. Leary is great at throwing the deep ball and that can really keep the defense honest.
NC State’s defense pitched a shutout against USF. Yes it was USF, but this NC State defense is clearly much improved unit. Cyrus Fagan, a transfer from Florida State, is a great leader in the secondary. Derek Pitts Jr., who transferred from Marshall, gives the team a top notch cover corner as well.
Mississippi State needed an epic 4th quarter comeback just to win by a point over LA Tech last week. The Bulldogs offense went 5 for 5 on scoring TD’s in the red zone and they needed every last point. Mike Leach’s offense still isn’t working that well with the current quarterbacks and the weakness at offensive line for Miss State.
I think NC State has the much higher upside and they are the more balanced team.
Huge Saturday Card has the 100% Non Conf. Play of the year and an Executive Level TIER 1 Total Headlining a tremendous College Football card, along with MLB September Specific Systems 3 top LEVEL Soccer Plays and the U.S Open Ladies Final. CFB Comp Play below.
The College Football Comp Play is on Wyoming at 1:30 eastern. The Cowboys escaped with a 3 point win over Montana St as a 19 point favorite. Expect a much better game here today as they travel to take on a Northern Illinois team that upset Georgia Tech on the road last week as a 19 point dog despite losing the yardage battler by nearly 130 yards. The Huskies are 1-8 to the spread at home vs winning teams and have failed to cover 11 of 13 here vs a team off a win. Wyoming has a stellar defense and is 6-0 ats off a spread loss and has covered 5 of 7 vs a winning team. With Northern Illinois failing to cover 5 of 6 off a win and 4 of 5 vs Mountain West Conference teams look for a Wyoming win and cover. On Saturday dont look anywhere else. Rob is white hot and has a Huge College Football card backed with the Non Conference Game of the Year, an Executive Level TIER 1 Total headlining a huge College Card that also has 3 TOP level Soccer Moves, the U.S Open Ladies Final, the MLB September Power System Plays and more. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on and cash out all day and night. For the College Football Comp Play Go with Wyoming. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
I finally have some time to sit down and cap the EPL, which is honestly one of my favorite things to do. The NHL hasn’t started yet, the PGA is on a break until next weeks Ryder Cup, so now is the week for some football (soccer) picks. The EPL is always tough to handicap given the talent & money some teams possess over others.
I got into soccer a few years back and fell in love with the sport. I’m glad it’s growing in the US because it’s nice to place a few bets on Saturday morning before College Football rolls in. So lets breakdown a few games on Saturday’s slate. Keep in mind, I tried to choose some games that will be streamed in the US so everyone can sweat out some early morning bets like myself.
Tottenham @ Crystal Palace
Information:
Kick-Off: 7:30 AM ET
Location: Sellhurst Park, London (Crystal Palace home)
TV Schedule: NBCSN
Odds:
Crystal Palace (+340)
Tottenham (-105)
Total: 2.5 (U 2.5 -125, O +110)
Preview/ Pick:
Tottenham currently sits at the top of the table after prevailing in a 1-0 victory vs Watford before the international break. Crystal Palace on the other hand are coming off a 2-2 draw vs West Ham United. After almost losing Harry Kane during the transfer window, he has committed to stay with Tottenham for the time being. The Spurs (Tottenham) are absolutely red hot right now and enter Selhurst Park on a 12 game unbeaten streak vs Crystal Palace. Given the form that they are in, I’ll lay the -105 and take Tottenham to continue their success.
PICK: Tottenham Spurs (-105)
Aston Villa @ Chelsea
Information:
Kick-Off: 12:30 PM ET
Location: Samford Bridge, London (Chelsea home)
TV Schedule: NBC
Odds:
Chelsea (-350)
Aston Villa (+1050) yes, that is correct
Total: 2.5 (U 2.5 +105, O -135)
Preview/ Pick:
Before we get started, I just want to say this is not a Chelsea ml pick. Yes, they will win but I will never lay -350 on the moneyline for any team. In this game, I’m going over 2.5 goals for the game. The addition of Lukaku has been a much need spark in their offense after Timo Werner couldn’t find the back of the net last season. Aston Villa on the other hand lost their star Jack Grealish to Manchester City during the transfer window. Chelsea fresh off a Champions League victory, have shown no signs of slowing down. Ollie Watkings and Danny Ings are both healthy for Aston Villa so they should start and provide some offense for them. This should be a 3-0 or 2-1 Chelsea victory but, either way I see it going over the total.
PICK: Chelsea/ Aston Villa OVER 2.5 (-135)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We’ll what a meet it was at Saratoga, there truly is no race course in the world like it. The atmosphere was absolutely electric this year especially with fans returning. The NYRA circuit will head to Belmont next week for the fall meet but until then we head to Kentucky Downs where we have a solid day of racing this weekend.
Some terrible news that just came out is that star Jockey Jose Ortiz will be out the rest of the Kentucky Downs meet with COVID-19.
I’ll be breaking down the two G2 Stakes Races that take place on Saturday.
The Calumet Turf Cup Stakes is carded as Race 9 and the Franklin-Simpson Stakes is carded as Race 10 on Saturday’s 11-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 12:20 p.m. EDT.
Other notable races on Saturday at Kentucky Downs:
Looking at the forecast, it looks to have no rain in sight so they should stay on the turf. The A/E will only run if we have some early scratches. All of my picks, do not include any A/E horses.
CHANNEL CAT’s last win comes back in May of this year in the G1 Man O’ War Stakes. After that win, he races twice. He followed up the Man O’ War win with a 7th place finish in the G1 Manhattan where he was tired. After that, he raced just three weeks later in the G2 Bowling Green Stakes to run 4th. He comes into this race off a layoff of a little over a month so he should have had some time to rest. He’s lengthened out here to a mile and a half, a distance that I think will benefit him given his past races.
TIDE OF THE SEA lost to the 20-1 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY in his last race the KY Downs TVG Preview Turf Cup Stakes. He ran 4th in that contest he set the pace early but gave in around the eighth pole and yielded. In the race prior, he ran at a distance at a mile and a half and finished second. He seems to enjoy this distance based off his previous finishes at a mile and a half. His last win was back in January of this year, but has run some decent speed figures in his last two races.
ARKLOW is the horse to beat in this race. In his last two races, he hasn’t been at his best but we’ll see if he can turn it around here. Two races ago, in the G1 United Nation Stakes he stumbled out of the gate to run 6th. In his most recent race, he ran 7th in the G2 Del Mar Handicap. Prior to those two races, he won the G2 Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes and the G3 Louisville Stakes. He’ll go back to a mile and a half where he has won his past three of four races at that distance. His last time at Kentucky Downs, he won the G3 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup.
AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM is horse that I don’t think will win this race, but has a solid probability of finishing inside the money. He lost to ARKLOW earlier this year in the G3 Louisville Stakes where he ran 4th. This horse has shown some real speed in his races earlier this year but didn’t have a great trip out in his last race. He seems to enjoy this distance so he should be in contention down the stretch.
ZULU ALPHA has only races twice this year, and hasn’t had great trips out in either race. His last win comes back in 2020, which was at this distance of a mile and a half. This 8 year old may have officially crossed the hill with his better days behind him. Unless he can recapture his form from last year, I don’t think he’ll be competitive in this race.
BLUEGRASS PARKWAY is a horse that seems to be coming into his own at five years old. He’s ran his two best speed figures his last two races and upset the field in the KY Downs TVG Preview Turf Cup Stakes his last out. He takes a step up in class here but has proven he can hang with some of these horses as he beat TIDE OF SEA last race. We’ll see if he can continue improving to make a run at the winner’s circle.
Other horses that should be interesting in this race include FANTASIOSO and GLYNN COUNTY.
Race Preview:
The early speed in this race will come from TIDE OF SEA, EPIC BROMANCE, and CHANNEL CAT who will set the pace. From there the rest of the pack will settle in, with the favorite ARKLOW closer to the back of the field. ZULU ALPHA will be a horse that settles off the pace with Joe Bravo looking to set him up to make a run down the stretch. ARKLOW will make a move late down the stretch with the rest of the field looking to hold him off.
If CHANNEL CAT is able to push the pace early, I’m not sure that anyone will be able to catch him. The key for the other contenders will be to try and stay within striking distance of him.
COUNTRY FINAL ran a solid race his last out to rally and run 2nd after he was bumped at the start. This was his only start in 2021 but competed in some pretty big races last year. He ran in the G2 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint and finished 6th. I’m not sure this gelding will win but he should be competitive. Joel Rosario will get the mount with his last time on him coming back in the G2 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.
NEXT will drop down in distance after racing his previous five races at a mile or greater. His last 6 1/2 Furlong sprint was at Kentucky Downs where he won. In his last race out he finished 4th in the G2 Hall of Fame Stakes where fellow entrant ANNEX ran 2nd. John Velasquez will stay on him. The drop is distance is the biggest thing for this horse, he’s had success in the past but will face tougher competition.
ANNEX is another horse that will take a drop down in distance. This colt has never run at this distance before so I’m really sure why they have entered him in this race. He’s struggled his past three races so that may be why. It’s hard to guess how this horse will handle this change in distance, it may be the change he needs to get back in the winner’s circle. The odds clearly reflect that this change in distance is a positive one. His last two workouts at a distance of 4F were encouraging so that may have also sparked the change.
POINT ME BY is the morning line favorite in this race due to his impressive record. This three year old colt only has three starts in his career but has won two of those. He won his first race in a 5 1/2 Furlong Sprint back in June. His last race was at a mile where he won the G1 Bruce D Stakes at Arlington. This horse is very impressive in his short career and will go back to a shorter distance. Looking at his speed figures from the last race, I’m not sure any horse in this race will beat him.
Other horses that should be interesting in this race include INTO THE SUNRISE, TANGO TANGO TANGO, and MISS AMULET.
Race Preview:
The pace setters in this race will be INTO THE SUNRISE, NEXT, and TANGO TANGO TANGO. There goal will be to try and push the pace to get as large of a lead as possible to prevent POINT BY ME from closing on them. ANNNEX will hang off the pace but Junior Alvarado may have a different strategy given this distance is new to him. COUNTRY FINAL will also be another horse that will be off the pace.
This race features a ton of horses that drop in distance from their usual mile + but have had success at shorter distances earlier in their career. This is a really tough race to handicap. The favorite POINT BY ME has the speed figures but the distance drop as previously mentioned worries me as he’ll have less time to close. For this race I’m going to rely on early speed, which may backfire. COUNTY FINAL is used to the distance and has shown some speed her last race. If she can get out to the front, I think she’ll be able to hold off the late charge. I also like the Asmussen/ Rosario combo.
Picks:
WIN: (3) COUNTY FINAL
EXACTA: 3 / 1, 7, 8,10
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Tonight we have a primetime matchup with the Dodgers returning home to open the series against the Padres. Lookout! The Padres are back in the last wildcard spot! I expect MAX effort tonight and with the Dodgers first home game off a road trip, the Padres should come out hotter. SD pitcher Musgrove had a decent outing in HOU after throwing a three hit 9-inning shutout at LAA. LAD pitcher Urias has been solid lately and shutout the Padres the last time he saw them. I made a play on SD F5 ML (+135) but I like the F5 UN 4 (+100) better with both pitching well lately and expecting the Dodgers come out flat off the road.
I went 5-0 on my NFL Win Totals for 2020. I have sent out 5 more for 2021 for Subscribers. I am posting Green Bay’s Total here for OddsBreaker’s Subscribers. Join for access to all Subscriber Plays here at the OddsBreakders https://theoddsbreakers.com/alan-cashman/
Green Bay Over 10.5 (2 Units)
Green Bay is coming off of a 13 win season with a 16 game schedule. I find it hard to believe this team drops off 3 wins with an extra game added to the 2021 schedule.
With Aaron Rodgers as well as the return of a solid run game and a top 10 defense, and they also get to play the NFC Central twice.
I am taking the Packers over 10.5 wins for 2 units
If you didn’t get your bets in earlier in the week, it’s best to look at the “stale” lines (or lines that haven’t moved much). You’ve already missed the best of most numbers, so the edge may not be there anymore. The best late-week or gameday options you have are to either go contrarian, identify any abnormality not accounted for in the line, or hope to be on the right side of split action. Full disclosure, although I review week one stats I rely mostly on last year’s numbers to avoid over reactions in week two.
Liberty (-4) at Troy Sat. 6pm
Large majority of $ is on Liberty to cover the 4 and go over the total of 62, both with good reason. Troy’s defense was weak last year giving up almost 26 ppg, but should be bolstered two Power 5 LB transfers this year. The strength of Troy’s offense is their passing game coming into the year, but Liberty returns a defense that was 12th vs Pass, and 11th total defense.
What forced my hand in this game is a prop at BetOnline, WHICH IS MY FAVORITE PROP OF THE WEEKEND!!! 3 straight scores by either team? YES-323/ NO+225. That’s the abnormality that has me thinking the oddsmakers had this one right, favoring LIB but expecting a tight one. Do they expect Troy to score 3 unanswered?!? I could see Liberty, perhaps, but I doubt it because Troy is not a bad team.
The line hasn’t budged so that tells me respected $ is on Troy. An experienced OL, defense, and a highly touted QB has me liking Liberty -4. So I’ll hedge my prop play with Liberty -4 assuming props-makers think Liberty may dominate this one because I can’t see Troy doing it.
Liberty -4 1.13u and 3 straight scores by either team NO +225 2u
Utah (-7) at BYU Sat. 9:15pm
87% of $ on Utah for The Holy War and for good reason. I can see BYU hanging around at home for awhile but the Cougs come into this one extraordinarily banged up, especially on the defensive side. We saw Arizona almost come back for the upset last week and let’s face it, Utah is much better. BYU will be looking to slow this one down as much as possible to keep that defense off the field.
Utah -7 (-111) 1.1u/ UN 49 (-105) 1.05u
NC State at Mississippi ST Total 55 1/2
This total moved down to 55 1/2 from 56 but is juiced to the over. Respected $ has come in to move it, but I can’t see this one being a low scoring game so the move may have been a syndicate bait and switch. NC ST’s defense is not bad, it’s just not consistent. MISS ST’s defense was mid-tier last year, but 105th vs Pass. NC ST wants to pass with QB Leary healthy and in his second year in the system. Mike Leach’s squad should also be ready and able now that he’s had a full offseason in his second year with the program.
NC ST/ MISS ST OV 55 1/2 (-115) 1.15u
For more of my plays I’m on Action Network APP at kris_lundborg
Even writing in “September 11th” in the title had me pause– please make sure to reflect upon those horrid events 20 years ago. As a post 9/11 veteran, I think the single greatest threat to America is our own lack of patriotism and community. It was rarely lacking in the military and it’s a shame it’s lacking so often day-to-day in our democracy. Remember how people respond during tragedy– with unadulterated love, acceptance, and courageous acts of heroism. That’s what America is all about. Onto our CFB free plays:
Pittsburgh -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: This line was at -3 and now it’s up to -3.5 at most books, and I understand why. Taking an away favorite is never an easy thing, and it surely challenges the good practices of a pro sports bettor. Still, I think the Panthers are primed for a very solid season and I don’t anticipate much push-back from the Volunteers on Saturday. Tennessee won an uninspiring opener against Bowling Green. They dominated on the ground, accumulating 331 yards rushing, and limited the Falcons to only 6 points. Let us pause for a slow clap (or perhaps, let us not). It’s unsettling that on third down conversions, where teams often have to rely on their passing game, the Volunteers were below-average last week (and again, that was against a BOWLING GREEN defense). Tennessee only managed to go 7/15 on 3rd down conversions and the Falcons were very much in the game until later in the 3rd quarter. PS– Tennessee was at home last week, too. Super Senior QB Kenny Pickett will lead the Panthers into Neyland Stadium. As expected, last week’s opener was never in question against UMass. The Panthers cruised to a 51-7 victory, showing off their talent on both sides of the ball. The Panthers bring a rush defense that was top 15 into Saturday, along with a proficient passing attack supported by a ton of talent at receiver. If this line climbed up into the 5s or 6s, I might consider a play on the Volunteers, but sometimes the ol’ away favorite is simply the better team. The Panthers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, while Tennessee is 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games against a team with a winning road record. I’m backing Pittsburgh for 1.5 units.
Air Force -6 (-110), 2 units: Last year the Air Force Fighting Falcons dominated the Midshipmen in a 40-7 rout. This year might not be too different. Navy’s inconsistency at QB has been an issue for 2 seasons and running and it could spell real problems against a very efficient and talented Air Force backfield. The Falcons earned a staggering 370 yards on the ground last week against Lafayette. Even more staggering: 12 different rushers participated in this attack. Running backs Brad Roberts and Micah Davis each ran for 100 yards and QB Haaziq Daniels added another 72 yards on 19 attempts for good measure. Nine other runners helped gain the other 86 yards. The battle between military academies is always contentious and I’m sure Navy will have some tricks up their collective sleeves, but a 49-7 thrashing from Marshall last week doesn’t give us a ton of hope in the Midshipmen. That game was also at Annapolis. Navy accumulated 337 yards on the ground themselves but they couldn’t turn it into points. They also possessed the ball for 69% of that contest (41:19 minutes), and STILL couldn’t get more than 7 points. Navy has serious problems defending the pass (and on defense in general), and while the Falcons don’t usually pass much, I think they’ll take advantage early and often to gain an edge. The Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points– I’ll take the military branch that I served in to cover– go Air Force!
