Monday night Football Play of the Month headlines along with a 5* MLB Diamond cutter System. Comp play below.
The MLB Comp play for Monday is on Oakland at 10:10 eastern. Oakland has lost 9 straight to Seattle and after getting swept at home by the Mainers look for an Oakland team looking to serve up some revenge. In fact Irvin for Oakland lost just a few days ago to Flexen and the Mariners. Oakland fits a nice September specific system. Look for the A/S to take the opener. Monday night Play of the Month in the NFL Headlines along with a 5* Diamond Cutter in baseball. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we start another big week. For the MLB Comp play. Go with Oakland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Can possibly get WAS at + money for First 5 Inning Run Line if you prefer
WAS 23-8 last 31 meetings
Rogers 1.88 Road ERA
Mahle 6.10 ERA at Home
Mahle 6.75 ERA last 3 starts vs WAS
MLB
Braves at Padres 4:10 pm
PICK : ATL Over 3.5 (-110) 1 unit
Atlanta SP uncertain but Musgrove is going for SD
ATL batting .358, SLG .756 vs Musgrove
ATL scored 4 or more runs in 6 straight games
Musgrove has allowed 3 or more runs in each of his last 3 starts
Musgrove 5.55 ERA last 5 starts vs ATL
Musgrove 5.09 ERA last 4 starts
SD bullpen 5.40 ERA last 10 games
Steve (@snormsnorm) and I (@ChrisRFarley1) haven’t had the most exceptional start in the Circa contest but hey, it’s a marathon not a sprint, right? Week 2 gets the best of even the sharpest handicappers; we’re looking forward to some improvement in Week 3.
Justin Fields will make his first career start today on the road against a legitimate playoff team in the Browns. On principle alone, I like to fade rookie QB’s making their first career road start, and it’s easier to do so when their offense has proven to be stagnant under a veteran QB. It would be a miracle in my mind for the Bears to reach the 20 point mark, and given the Browns athleticism on the defensive side of the ball, I think they can hold Chicago closer to 10. However, the Bears defense matches up well with Cleveland’s running attack and should be up for the challenge today. Baker Mayfield is less than 100% with a shoulder issue, and WR Jarvis Landry has already been ruled out. The priority in Cleveland right now is the get those guys healthy for the rest of the season, not to run up the score against a lowly Bears team. I expect a pretty vanilla game plan from the Browns, which should play right into the Bears’ hands. This game has Under written all over it.
*2 Team Teaser(1u): Bills -1 vs Washington FT, Dolphins/Raiders UNDER 51(-110)–12 PM CT
The Bills got right in Miami last week in an absolute thumping of the Dolphins. For as much hype as the WFT defense got entering the season, they sure haven’t looked very good against the pass, which sets up horribly against Buffalo’s pass-first offense. I can’t trust the WFT offense to go punch-for-punch with Josh Allen. The Bills very well could blow out Washington today, but I feel more confident in teasing them down to -1. The Dolphins will be led by Jacoby Brisset today; while I expect a better performance than he showed last week after coming off the bench, Miami can only go so far with him at the helm. While their offense is suspect right now, I still have faith in the Dolphins defense. Derek Carr isn’t 100%, and the Raiders aren’t dynamic enough offensively to make me worry about how the Dolphins will matchup. I’ll tease the total up and take the under.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams – Sunday, September 26th – 4:25 ET Kickoff
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to the west coast to take on the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Sunday. The Bucs are coming off a shellacking of the Falcons 48-25 while the Rams enter the contest after squeaking out a 27-24 win against the Colts. Over the first 2 games, Tampa Bay has been averaging 386 yards per game, 6.4 yards per play and 39.5 points per game while the Rams offense has been very similar producing 378 yards per game, 7 yards per play and 30.5 points per game. The Rams have only given up 19 points per game on defense but that was up against mediocre offenses (Chicago and Indianapolis) that average 4.8 yards per play and 18.5 points per game collectively. Enter the Brady bunch….this could be a rude awakening for the LA defense. Neither of these teams have run the ball effectively ranking 25th and 30th in the league but rank 5th and 7th in the NFL in passing yards per game. I mention that because both defenses have given up more passing yards than the opposing offenses have been averaging with TB allowing 342 YPG against offenses averaging 260 YPG and the Rams have given up 216 YPG against their opposition averaging 185 yards through the air per game. The Bucs also have an excellent rush defense, so I am anticipating this to be a back-and-forth game with most of the yardage gained being through the air. The over is 21-8 in the last 29 Buccaneers games versus conference opponents and the over is also 9-2 in the Rams last 11 games as an underdog. I expect this game to be in the 30s which will take us over the total comfortably.
*NFL(1.5u): Steelers -2.5(-120) vs Bengals–12 PM CT
The Steelers have had an odd start to the season. They opened with an outright win against the Bills only to return home last week and lose outright to the Raiders. The easy person to blame is Big Ben, but I still have hope that he’s capable of leading this team towards another playoff appearance. This sets up as a perfect bounce back spot for the Steelers, and they get the perfect “get right” opponent in Cincinnati. For as good as Joe Burrow is, this team has glaring issues across the board, but most notably at OL. The Steelers front four should be able to win that battle all day and put their offense in advantageous positions. This line is giving the Bengals far too much credit; I still believe they have a ways to go. I’ll lay the short number with Pittsburgh.
Sunday card is loaded with an Executive Level TIER 1 in NFL along with the Non Conference Total of the Year, the SNF Play of the Month and more. We have another big MLB September System and soccer. Comp Play below
The NFL Comp Play is on Minnesota at 4:25 eastern. The Vikings are taking a few points here in their home opener after a pair of tough and close road losses. Game 3 home dogs that lost the first 2 games have covered 75% the last few years and we should see a spirited effort here today. In fact the Vikings have covered 18 of 25 as a home pup including the last 5 playing off a loss. Seattle has failed to cover 5 of 6 as a road favorite and 6 of 7 vs teams under .500. The host team has covered 6 of 8 in the series. Make it Minnesota plus the 2 points here. On Sunday we have 5 plays in the NFL with the NFL Non conference Total of the Year, an Executive Level tier 1 side, the Sunday night Game of the Month, early 5* and more. There is also a big MLB Blowout System and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we are rolling in the NFL and look for another big day. For the NFL Comp Play. Go with the Vikings. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
This is the best game of the week with two potential super bowl teams facing off at the new SoFi stadium in LA. The Bucs have showed well beating the Cowboys and Falcons but their yardage doesn’t look so good on paper being out-gained in total yards so far and benefitting from turnovers. Both of these teams are pretty healthy so there should be no big edge there but I think that the Rams had the harder schedule up this this point and their stats show a bit better than the Buccaneers. My power ratings has this game the Rams by 1 point if you give them 2.5 points for home field but I think we can’t ignore what happened last year where the Rams went into Tampa and opened up a can of whoopass on them. Tampa bay has some of the best weapons in football, but the Rams have the best pass defense and should be able to contain the big plays from Godwin and Evans. Antonio Brown is out for the Bucks so I expect a heavy dose of Scottie Miller which has to be looked at as a downgrade. The Bucs have no answer for Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and now that the Rams have a better QB, they will have a lot more of the field to work with. That 27-24 final score last year when the Rams won in Tampa was misleading because the Rams were up by double digits most of this game until garbage time. Jason Pierre Paul will be out for the Bucs and that will hurt their pass rush on Stafford. I think that McVeigh wins this matchup at home.
Rams +1.5 is the play for 2 stars
Green Bay vs San Francisco -3.5 O/U 50
If Bucs/Rams is the best game of the week then Packers/49ers is the second best.
My handicap on this game used to be that the Packers can’t stop the run and Rodgers can’t win in California but that has since changed.
Green Bay made a move this year for Devondre Campbell at inside linebacker and it has actually worked out ok thus far being at least average at stopping the run.
Last year, the 49ers were injured but the Packers got that monkey off their back by beating them at Levi Stadium by double digits.
The 49ers are another team with some serious injury problems where the Packers can hurt them. They lost cornerback Jason Verrett the 1st game of the season and now Emmanuel Moseley is questionable. Not good for defending the pass.
Let’s not forget that the 49ers are very banged up at running back and I think this year Matt Lefleur will challenge Jimmy Garopollo to beat them passing the ball. This isn’t good for the 49ers.
My power ratings has the Packers the better football team here by 2.25 points and this game should be closer to a pickem especially with those injuries.
Packers +3.5 – 2.5 stars
Refuse To Lose 6pt Teaser is 1-1 (total premium teasers are 2-1) – Buffalo to -1.5 with Arizona -1.5 – 2 stars
Hugo Lloris makes save against Arsenal at Wembley Stadium in London, England (Photo by PremierLeague.com)
*EPL: Arsenal vs. Tottenham – 1st Half Correct Score 0-0 (+170)
*1-2 so far in Premier League action this weekend, but when analyzing both Arsenal and Tottenham this season, I very much expect a goalless first half in the North London derby. (+170)
Another pick with decently high odds and good value. One that I can admittedly say is not a certain lock, but a pick that seems destine to happen based on what we’ve seen so far from these North London rivals. Lets start with one quick negative before I hit you with the stats… Football is quite harsh in the sense that a goal can come from ANYWHERE and therefore this pick is a bit risky when thinking a lucky bounce, or cheap penalty can kill the bet so fast. BUT… both Arsenal and Tottenham haven’t looked at all convincing on the attacking end. Arsenal have only managed two goals in five games this season, while Tottenham have three, both of which are in the bottom four of the league in this category. Tottenham have already had three out of their five games finish 0-0 at half-time and are 19th out of 20 in shots created. Arsenal have only scored one first-half goal in their five games played this Premier League season. With both teams DESPERATE to avoid defeat and drop all three points, the approach from both sides will be safe. We’ve seen with Tottenham that they play every game safe, a tactic that Nuno Espirito Santo has been known to implement over the years with Wolves and now Spurs. Arsenal though, have looked very weak defensively, conceding nine goals this season so far, but I think the immense lack of creativity shown by Spurs will be no problem for the Gunners to go into the break with a clean sheet at home. I can certainly still see this game being 1-1 in the end, but I expect both sides to be tentative and kind of feel each other out in the first-half.
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Brian Ortega vs Alexander Volkanovski -185
Sometimes you just have to bet on ugly. This is going to be a great featherweight main event between top contender Brian Ortega and Champion Alexander Volkanovski and I expect some fireworks. Neither of these fighters like each other all that much and they have been taking jabs at each other over the last few months. Let’s look at how these guys match up. Alexander is 32 years old and 5’6 wearing hiking boots. He has some long arms for his size at 71″ reach. Volk is trained in Greco-Roman wrestling and kick boxing. Brian Ortega is 30 years old and 5’9 with a 69″ reach. He is well trained as a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has some of the best standup and ground game in his weight-class. Now the handicap on this fight for me is about points and strikes. Volkanovski is short and stocky with a long reach. He averages 6 significant strakes per minute to Brian Ortega’s 4.29 respectively. Alexander is also better at take downs 2.09 per 15 minutes to .8 for Ortega. Now Volk has faced some of the best fighters in his class and I do not think that Ortega can get the submission that he might need to win this fight. Vokanovski is just too good on the ground, too powerful, and he has almost no neck with a small head making it hard for fighters to submit him. He should be able to get out of compromising situations. I think this fight is about the points and Volkanovski has the best leg kicks in the sport. As a fan I want Ortega to win but sometimes our pocket-book doesn’t agree. I am going to grab the champion here and I think that there is a small chance that the belt will flip if it goes to decision. Alexander wins ugly by points.
Alexander Volkanovski -185 – 2.5 stars
Other Plays:
Valentina Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ -120 1.5 star – Ok, this is another 5 round championship bout between a seasoned champion in Valentina and a gap filler in Lauren Murphy. Lauren is a good fighter but she is no match for the best technical fighter in the sport in my opinion. Valentina can do it all and her price says it at -1500. Now even though Murphy has never been submitted or knocked out, I think that she will lose this fight by KO being that this is going 5 rounds and Valentina should be able to bludgeon her some. The problem with Murphy is that she will not take this fight to the ground because it will be end up pretty bad for her as Shevchenko has the massive advantage on the mat. I think we see a KO and if Murphy can go the distance, I am going to pay to see it.
Omar Morales -150 – 2 stars – Johnathan Pierce is coming into this fight at 10-4 with a ton of knockouts but he hasn’t faced anyone with a pulse as of yet. Morales has went the distance with Giga Chikadze whome I think is the number 1 contender in the featherweight division. Omar at 15-1 has the better ground game if his standup fails him and he will use it if needed. I will grab the battle tested fighter here in the first bout of the day.
