I’ve been watching this line all week and I don’t mind waiting on an Under play. Weird considering 99% of the money is on the OV 64 in this SunBelt v. AAC matchup, right?Although ARK ST is 60th in the nation in scoring OFF, TULSA is 113th. With Tulsa as an over 2 TD favorite (-14.5) I’m looking for Tulsa to control the line of scrimmage.
Tulsa has been more successful on the ground so far this year (147/ ypg) but has a 2:1 Pass/ Rush First Down Ratio largely due to their opening opponents. ARK ST has the same ratio but has been much more successful with the pass, averaging 370/ypg. ARK ST’s defense is better vs the run than the pass. Tulsa is better against the pass than the rush. Both good cases for the under.
ARK ST almost upset Memphis at home two weeks ago, losing 50-55. That high flying MEM/ ARK ST game does scare me, but Tulsa’s bread and butter last year was their defense. Memphis isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut. Tulsa returned the majority of their 18th ranked Pass Defense from last year, they should only improve off of an Ohio State beat down.
I expect Tulsa to lean on their defensive experience to get them through games while working out the offense. When ARK ST faced a good defense in Washington last week, they were almost shut out- losing 52-3. I don’t expect Tulsa to put up those kind of points and their defense may not be as good, but they’re only allowing 223 pass/ ypg. With 75% of the money on ARK ST to cover the +14.5, I’m looking to hedge the UN 64 with a correlated play on ARK ST in case Tulsa can’t get the separation. I think both could hit in this one.
ARK ST UN 64 (-108) 1.08u / ARK ST +14.5 (-108) 1.08u
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FAU vs Air Force -4.5 O/U 51.5
This game is more about matchup than power rating. Air Force had a nice start to the season beating Navy until they faced a team that could pass the ball in Utah State. Now Utah State wasn’t supposed to be good this year but they are certainly exceeding expectations. In Saying that, FAU played Florida pretty tough week 1 and they blew out another option team in Georgia Southern 38-6. FAU had a bad offense bad offense last year but N’Kosi Perry who transferred in from Miami won the starting job and his balling at 63% completions and a 7-0 TD to interception ratio. The most important thing to me in this handicap is that FAU returns 6 of their front 7 from last year and they know how to stop the run allowing only 4.15 rushing yards per attempt last year. I think that FAU can stop the option here and they hand Air Force their second loss of the season.
FAU +4.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Texas A&M vs Arkansas +5.5 O/U 47
This handicap slapped me in the face when I dove into it. It’s kinda simple to me. Who played the harder schedule? Both were pretty easy, but Arkansas had to play Texas while Texas A&M got Colorado. Slight advantage Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a massive +3.27 net yards per play and Texas A&M is at 2.67. Advantage Arkansas. Which team still has their starting quarterback in and which team doesn’t due to injury? Pig Pig Pig. Arkansas proved that they can stop the run vs Texas and Georgia Southern. They have a better EPA per rush at -.125 over Texas A&M at +.026. I think that the Razorbacks win this game outright and I think that this money line should be seasoned quite well here. Woo Pig Sooooi!
Arkansas +5.5 – 3 stars and fat sprinkle
Notre Dame vs Wisconsin -6.5 O/U 45
This is really going to be a fun game at Soldier Field and I was wondering why the heck it starts so early. These 2 teams are trying to creep into the top 10 and this big win might be good enough to get them in. Wisconsin has that loss to Penn state which isn’t a bad loss at all but at the same time, they should have won that game and they consistently blew their shot in the Red Zone. Notre Dame on the other hand keeps squeaking by team that are either bad or mediocre and last week vs Purdue showed some weakness in their secondary as well as in their overall offense. Let’s face it. Wisconsin’s problems have been in the Red zone over the past two seasons now and they need to get that monkey off of their back in order for me to really trust them. The good news for the Badgers is that they might get their second best player back from injury in LB Leo Chenal being that Jack Sanborn has been their leader and best player by far. On the other side of the coin, if you know the story, Notre Dame starting quarterback Jack Coan was a Badger and quite simply lost his job over a small injury last year and off the hype over quarterback Graham Mertz. I am certain that Coan wants to make a big statement this game but I am not sure that he has the talent to do so. Jack doesn’t have the arm strength to throw it deep over the defense as Clifford did for Penn State and I also do not think that they have the speed to beat out safeties. Graham Mertz himself has made many mistakes by fumbling RPOs and tripping our running backs and if that doesn’t get cleaned up, Wisconsin will not score many points against this Notre Dame defense. My Algorithm has the game 24.22 to 20.51 or the Badgers by about 3.75 points. My power ratings have the game Badgers by 3.5 points on the nose but factoring in Notre Dame’s injuries, I can understand it being around 6. I think that there is more upside with Mertz and the Badgers but no lean on this 6.5 spread tho I think Wisconsin wins this game. I also think points will be at a premium here so small lean to the under. I think if you tease both of these sides it could create a winning bet.
Tease the Under to 51 with Wisconsin to -.5 – 1.5 stars
We have a loaded day of racing at Parx Racing this Saturday with several graded stakes races on the card. The main race of the day is the G1 Pennsylvania Derby that features HOT ROD CHARLIE and MIDNIGHT BOURBON to name a few. MEDINA SPIRIT was scratched by Trainer Bob Baffert on Tuesday after the post positions were revealed. He was quoted as saying “Medina looks good, he is training well, I didn’t like that draw. There is too much speed. It’s a tough race. I have a lot of respect for those other two horses. There is not much separating them, but I would be at a disadvantage. That’s why I’m passing.” Even without the potential Kentucky Derby winner, yes were still waiting on a final decision from the Kentucky Racing committee, the race should still be exciting.
The Pennsylvania Derby is carded as Race 12 on Saturday’s 13-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 12:05 p.m. ET.
#1 FULSOME will try his luck again at Parx after winning the G3 Smarty Jones Stakes a little under a month ago. He ran a career best speed figure in that event and will run a similar distance here. Prior to that race he finished 3rd in the G3 Indiana Derby and won the G3 Matt Winn Stakes. This will be his first G1 Stakes attempt so we’ll see how he handles the tougher competition.
#2 KEEPMEINMIND will likely go off a shorter price as most horses will given that the morning line favorite is out. His only win comes back in 2020 when he captured the G2 Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. However, he has faced some steep competition and may have an opportunity to get back in the winner’s circle here. He last race was a month ago when he ran third in the G1 Runhappy Travers Stakes at Saratoga. His speed figures from the last three races also indicate that he’s in great form.
#3 SPEAKER’S CORNER only has three starts to his name but has won two of them. He ran an impressive 107 speed figure his last out to win an Allowance race at Saratoga. The main concerns for this horse is 1, how will he handle the jump in class and 2, he’s only raced in dirt sprints so we have no idea how he’ll handle the increase in length and change in surface.
#4 WEYBURN will give his first G1 Stakes race ago after competing in several G2 Stakes and winning a G3 Stakes race. It’s an interesting move for sure to have this horse jump up to a G1 Stakes but this field isn’t particularly all that strong anymore given the scratches. He’s coming into this race off a two month layoff after finishing 4th in the G2 Jim Dandy back in July. In that race fellow entrant KEEPMEINMIND finished 2nd. We’ll see if this layoff allows him to be at full strength. Another interesting note for this horse is that it’ll be his first time racing on Turf.
#5 I AM REDEEMED has been impressive to say the least winning three of his first four starts. This horse has has also posted some impressive speed figures in his last two races (111, 110). In his last out he won the Storm Cat Stakes at Parx a month ago. He’s only ever raced at Parx so he’s familiar with the course. Another positive was he seemed to respond well to the increase in distance his last out compared to his previous races.
#6 BOURBONIC is another horse that has faced some G1 Stakes competition before but has never been able to find the winners circle. In his last race he finished 3rd in the West Virginia Derby. Prior to that, he ran in the G1 Kentucky Derby finishing 13th and the G1 Belmont Stakes finishing 5th. His last win comes back in April of this year where he captured the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes. He’s also raced at this course before earlier this year where he ran 2nd in a AOC.
#7 HOT ROD CHARLIE also raced in the G1 Belmont and G1 Kentucky Derby with some better success than BOURBONIC. He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes. His last race out, the G1 Haskell Stakes, he won but was disqualified after drifting in front of MIDNIGHT BOURBON causing him to clip heels. With Medina Spirit scratched, this horse will go off as the favorite.
#8 MIDNIGHT BOURBON is off a 2nd place finish in the G1 Runhappy Travers Stakes at Saratoga. In that race, fellow entrant KEEPMEINMIND ran 4th. Prior to that race, he DNF in the Haskell as mentioned before due to HOT ROD CHARLIE cutting him off. He’ll be one of the main contenders in this race for sure as he seeks redemption from the Haskell. However, HOT ROD CHARLIE has seemed to have his number in the previous races they’ve faced off in.
#10 AMERICANREVOLUTION is another up and comer with winning three of his four career starts. In his last race, he posted a 108 speed figure winning the Albany Stakes at Saratoga. This will be another horse that may have some potential but will take a big step up in class here. Given the speed figure he posted in his last race at a Mile and an Eighth, I wouldn’t count him out.
Race Preview:
Well this race will definitely feature some speed. I AM REDEEMED, HOT ROD CHARLIE, and MIDNIGHT BOURBON will most likely all go to the front and try and push the pace given their running styles. SPEAKER’S CORNER, WEYBURN, and AMERICANREVOLUTION will try and hang off the pace which may be tough given the class of front runners in this race. Following up them will be the closers, FULSOME, KEEPMEINMIND, and BOURBONIC who will hope that the fast pace tires out the field and allows them to make a run down the stretch.
Robertino Diodoro who trains KEEPMEINMIND was quoted as saying this about the scratched of MEDINA SPIRIT “In a way you don’t mind seeing Medina Spirit out of there but with a horse like ours it’s going to take away a bit of the pace factor,” Diodoro said. “It helps a few horses, but not us.” However, the camps for HOT ROD CHARLIE and MIDNIGHT BOURBON were happy about the scratch as they had said it makes for an easier race. MEDINA SPIRIT is a front runner and would have likely pushed the pace a little more than the current horses in the field can.
Picks:
BEST BET WIN: 7 HOT ROD CHARLIE
LONGSHOT WIN: 3 SPEAKER’S CORNER
EXACTA PART WHEEL: 7/ 1, 3, 8
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday card has the 2021 College Dog of the Year, an Afternoon Blowout, an Executive LEVEL TIER 1 TOTAL and a Late night Bailout. There is also MLB September System plays and Soccer. CFB Comp play below
The Saturday Comp play is on Michigan at 3:30 eastern. Michigan has looked solid this year and has covered 7 of 8 as a home favorite and 5 of 6 after allowing 20 or less points. Today they qualify in a 29-8 Power System pertaining to winning conference home favorites at -26 or less off back to back wins, the last of which they scored 55 or more and won by 21 or more, and their opponent arrives of back to back wins and covers like Rutgers.. The Scarlet Knights have failed to cover 6 of 8 off a win and 4 of 5 after passing for 275+ yards. Rutgers has lost every game in the series and has been blown out every time here on the road. Play on the Wolverines. On Saturday a massive cad is up and led by an Executive Level TIER 1 Total, the 2021 College Dog of the Year, an Afternoon Blowout, Late night Bailout and a few more. There is also our September Specific MLB system Plays and Top level Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we Continue to cash. For the College Comp play. Make it Michigan. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNAction, and I have one for you on Saturday in college football.
So far the CFB season has been great. 20-14 record thus far with a nice 22% ROI. 2-0 on Free Late night plays
Late night pick this week features two perennial powerhouses of college football in New Mexico and UTEP. Both these teams come into this game at 2-1. Both have defeated New Mexico St already this year. NM beat them 34-25 at home while UTEP went on the road to get a 30-3 victory at NMSU in Week 0. New Mexico also has a win over Houston Baptist before they got pummeled 34-0 last week against A&M. UTEP has a win over Bethune-Cookman and a pummeling of their own at Boise St 54-13 in which they turned the ball over 6 times.
Both these teams are featuring run heavy offenses so far with NM running it 58% of the time and UTEP 66%. Both teams also play at a very slow tempo with NM at 95th for Plays per minute and UTEP at 123rd. Terry Wilson a Kentucky transfer is the QB for NM. He’s got a great completion percentage at 65.1 % so far with 6 TD and only 1 INT. They don’t throw downfield much though only averaging 6.7 Yards per attempt. UTEP has been more successful throwing the ball when they decide to do it at 10.5 YPA, but its still mostly run, run, run.
New Mexico’s defense has been stingy for the most part against the run, so I anticipate UTEP will have to adjust and throw the ball a little more in this game. IF they can take care of the ball I like them to have a slight edge in this matchup as they have been also very good against the run holding opponents to 3.4YPC.
There’s multiple plays for me on this game on both the side and the total. My favorite play is Under 54 -110 2 Units. – I have it at 47, so lots of value here. I don’t see this game somehow getting to 31-24 without a lot of turnovers and I expect a game filled with run, run, run, run, incomplete, punt. I also like the UTEP side a little better. They were playing ok against Boise outside of the turnovers and special teams miscues. That game was closer than the final score. I like UTEP +1.5 -110 for a unit, and UTEP ML +110 for 1 unit. And since we are already at this point and the Teaser sets up nice I am playing that as well. 6 Point Teaser UTEP +7.5, Under 60 2 Units.
Here’s to hoping we end Saturday night with a bang. You can get all my premium plays for this weekend for College Football and NFL here at TheOddsBreakers.
In addition to these 6 free plays, I have 4 premium plays in this Week 4 card for my premium members. My overall premium record is 18-7, +19.5u; if you’d like to become a member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9. 2021 College Football Record: 21-16-1, +12.86u.
*CFB(1u): UCLA -4.5(-110) @ Stanford–Sat. 5 PM CT
After an inept Week 1 performance against Kansas State, Stanford has recorded back-to-back wins against USC and Vanderbilt. Much of the success can be attributed to first-year starting QB Tanner McKee. McKee was a highly touted prospect coming out of HS, and after completing a 2-year Mormon mission, it doesn’t appear he’s missed a step. However, it’s important that we contextualize those 2 wins; USC is an unstable program that fired their HC due to the Stanford loss, and Vanderbilt is in year 1 of a major rebuilding project. In a stark contrast, UCLA feels like this is their year in year 4 under Chip Kelly. I’m not going to knock the Bruins too much for falling to Fresno State last week because the Bulldogs have proven to be one of the top Group of 5 teams in the country. For reference, Oregon only beat Fresno State by a touchdown in Week 1. UCLA is built to beat Stanford down in the trenches, and the Bruins proved in a win against LSU that they are capable of doing so. The Bruins employ a heavy ground attack, which sets up horribly for a Cardinal defense that’s biggest question coming into the year was whether they could stop the run. UCLA can stop the run, and I’m not a big believer in Stanford’s ground attack. As good as McKee has looked, he is still unproven against quality competition like UCLA. Lastly, Stanford’s home atmosphere provides little-to-no advantage for the Cardinal, so I would feel comfortable laying the points with the road team. I expect UCLA to respond strongly off of last week’s loss and match up well with Stanford.
*CFB(1u): Tennessee/Florida OVER 63.5(-110)–Sat. 6 PM CT
Many coaches in Josh Heupel’s situation would choose to try and run the clock and limit Florida’s possessions in this matchup. However, Heupel isn’t like other coaches, and he’s shown nothing throughout his HC career that suggests he will employ such a game plan. At both UCF and now at Tennessee, Heupel has run his offenses at a shockingly fast pace(for reference: UCF ran 6 more plays/game than any other team in the FBS last season). That style gives both his team and the opposition more chances to score. Florida’s offense found their rhythm in the second half against Alabama last week and will have a much easier matchup against this Volunteer defense. I have questions about the Vols defense at all 3 levels, and with catalyst Anthony Richardson likely to be back healthy for the Gators, I think UF can name their number in this game. However, by the shear number of plays they’ll run, I do think Tennessee’s offense can push the 25-30 point mark. Heupel has been quiet about the QB battle this week, but I believe Hendon Hooker will lead the Vols offense on Saturday. Hooker is experienced from his time at Virginia Tech and has proven to be effective as both a runner and passer. Florida’s defense is much improved from a year ago, but they are still vulnerable to some leakage. I think Florida’s offense sets the tone in this game and we see this one skyrocket over the posted total.
*CFB(1u): Cal/Washington UNDER 47(-110)–Sat. 8:30 PM CT
I would classify both of these offenses as disgusting. Washington put up just 17 points through their first two games, while Cal consistently finds ways to avoid the end zone. Justin Wilcox and Jimmy Lake are both defensive-minded HC’s, and this could very well be a “first to 20 wins” type of game. For as bad as the Huskies offense has looked in meaningful games this season, I am still a believer in their defense. Their front 7 should be able to stop the run and force Chase Garbers into obvious passing downs, which is not his strong suit. While Washington put up 52 against Arkansas State last week, I’m not sold that this offense has found their solution. The Huskies have had a hard time establishing the run and have put QB Dylan Morris in less-than-ideal situations. Cal hasn’t looked great defensively this season, but they should benefit from Washington’s offense being stagnant. This should be an ugly game where the Under is the only way I’ll look.
*CFB(1u): Arizona State -14(-110) vs Colorado–Sat. 9:30 PM CT
I backed Arizona State last week against BYU and have a hard time reconciling that loss. Jayden Daniels completed 72.5% of his passes and the RB’s averaged 6.65 YPC, but 4 turnovers crippled the Sun Devils in a game they had no business losing. Coming back home, I expect a much sharper performance from Arizona State this time around. Colorado is totally lost offensively; they recorded just 63 yards last week in a shutout against Minnesota. When you can’t move the chains, you put your defense in a horrible position. I really like this Arizona State defense and think they can dominate the Buffs offense like the Gophers did last week. From there, as long as Daniels and co. can take care of the ball, they’ve proven to be pretty consistent as a unit. I like ASU in a bounce back game late on Saturday night.
*ML Parlay(1u): TCU, Clemson, Oklahoma State(+131)–must be placed by Sat 11 AM CT
TCU takes on rival SMU in the early slate on Saturday. TCU has settled on former 5 star Zach Evans as their main RB, and combined with Max Duggan’s legs, I expect the Horned Frogs to run all over a soft SMU defense. From there, Gary Patterson should be able to scheme up a good game plan against first-year starter Tanner Mordecai. Clemson’s offense has looked wretched through 3 weeks of the season, but they can’t get much worse from here. The main key to NC State’s season was for them to keep star LB Payton Wilson healthy, and unfortunately he will be out for a significant period of time. NC State didn’t show me much offensively in their game against Mississippi State; for how bad the Clemson offense has been, they’ve looked fantastic defensively. This is a good price to buy low on Clemson, but I’ll just take them to find a way to win on the road. Oklahoma State has reverted to a run-first offense(something I never thought I’d say with Mike Gundy at the helm), but I think they’ll open things up on Saturday. QB Spencer Sanders started behind the 8-ball after missing the first game due to sickness, but he’s now had two games to get comfortable. I cannot trust the Kansas State offense with Will Howard at QB, and RB Deuce Vaughn could have a tough time running on what’s a very good Oklahoma State front 7. It could be ugly, but I have a hard time seeing the Cowboys losing this game.
*CFB(0.5u): Navy ML(+770) @ Houston–6 PM CT
This is a total longshot, but this is a principle bet for me. Teams that run the triple option and drain a lot of clock often find themselves to be competitive in games they have no business being competitive in. We saw Army take Oklahoma and Michigan into OT in recent years. I know Navy has been horrific this season, but at these odds, I’m willing to take a shot with them for half-a-unit. I identified Houston as an undisciplined team coming into the season, and the verdict is still out on whether they can stop the triple option. Very little sprinkle for me, but I think it’s worth it.
*CFB(2u): Iowa State -7(-110) @ Baylor–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Everybody seemed high on Iowa State coming into the season, and many went as far as to say they thought the Cyclones were set up to make the playoff. After another decisive loss to their rival Iowa, you’ve seen a lot of people turn on the Cyclones. However, the slow start for ISU shouldn’t have been a surprise; Matt Campbell has consistently struggled in the first few games of the season since he arrived in Ames. The Cyclones used last week’s trip to Las Vegas as a “get right” game; Brock Purdy completed 21/24 of his passes, Breece Hall ran for 100 yards, and the Cyclone defense held UNLV to just 3 points in an absolute drubbing. Fresh off a great performance, they’ll now travel to play one of the most fraudulent 3-0 teams in the country. Baylor has had a cakewalk of a schedule to this point(@ Texas State, Texas Southern, @ Kansas), and I believe they are in for a rude awakening entering conference play. Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon is still unproven as a passer against quality defenses, and that’s not what you want to have facing this Cyclone defense. ISU is good at all 3 levels, but because they can stop the run with their D-Line, they will have the luxury of dropping 8 and making Bohannon beat them with his arm(and mind). Baylor’s defense isn’t bad by any means, but the Cyclones have enough quality experience(4th year QB, star RB, safety net TE’s, cohesive OL) where I don’t think they’ll have much trouble. I really think ISU wins this game by 20 against a phony Baylor team; call it my best bet for this weekend.
*CFB(1.5u): Kentucky/South Carolina UNDER 48.5(-110)–Sat. 6:00 PM CT
Kentucky came into the season with a new offensive coordinator and preaching that they’ll start to open up the offense. However, when they played Missouri 2 weeks ago, the offense reverted back to a heavy ground attack as Will Levis attempted just 18 passes. While the Wildcats have 2 really good RB’s to work with, I think the Will Levis hype is unwarranted. If he was so good, he would’ve found a way to take the job from Sean Clifford at Penn State. South Carolina is obviously not set up to win in year 1 under Shane Beamer, but the one area that could keep them in this game is their D-Line. Just 2 weeks ago, the Gamecocks recorded 5 sacks against East Carolina. While Kentucky’s OL should match up better, I had very low expectations for their protection entering this season. Shane Beamer seems to have his team playing with a lot of effort, and I think they’ll surprise some people with their ability to get stops. That said, the Gamecock offense is totally inept, and Kentucky has proven time and time again they are reliable on defense. South Carolina’s best chance to keep this game tight is to make it ugly, and I think they’ll be somewhat successful in doing so. I think this one stays well under the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma 1H -9.5(-110) vs West Virginia–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
Oklahoma did not look good last week as they squeezed out an ugly 7 point win at home against Nebraska. Questions have started to emerge around QB Spencer Rattler and whether he’s as good as his predecessors. Those are valid, but in my mind totally irrelevant for the game at hand. Oklahoma fans have longing to play more night games at home, and they’ll get their wish here with a primetime game on ABC. That will create an even bigger home field advantage for the Sooners than they usually have and, in my mind, will totally rattle West Virginia. Neal Brown is a competent HC, but the Mountaineers offense has fallen off significantly since Dana Holgerson left the program. This Mountaineers return a lot of experience on that side of the ball, but QB Jarrett Doege severely limits their potential. OU’s defense is much improved, and with a raucous home crowd behind them, I think they’ll have a lot of success early. I was surprised to see how much the Sooners ran the ball last week; I think we all overlooked the fact that they didn’t have a “go-to” WR yet entering this season. However, with each week, those WR’s will develop better chemistry with Rattler, so I’d expect the downfield passing game to improve this week. The Mountaineers were a really good defense in 2020, but they lost a lot of production from that squad. Maryland(a dynamic offense) had no trouble moving the ball against WVU in Week 1, and this sets up as a tough matchup for Neal Brown’s defense. Oklahoma is an established front runner; they consistently start games at home with a huge lead to work with. I expect Saturday to look no different.
*CFB(1u): Western Kentucky TT OVER 27(-120) vs Indiana–Sat. 7 PM CT
If you don’t know who Bailey Zappe is, you need to learn the name. Zappe began his college career at Houston Baptist before transferring to Western Kentucky alongside his top target Josh Sterns. In just 2 games as a Hilltopper, Zappe has already thrown for 859 yards, 278 of those being distributed to Sterns. This offense is special, and coming off a BYE week, they’ve had ample time to prepare for this matchup with Indiana. I wonder where the Hoosiers’ psyche is following a disappointing 1-2 start; considering WKU presents less of a threat defensively than many of Indiana’s BigTen opponents, there’s a possibility Michael Penix and the Hoosiers offense can start to piece things together this week. All I know is the Hilltoppers are going to throw the ball all over the yard and they’ve shown nothing to this point to where I couldn’t trust them in this spot.
We are 11-5 (69%) on our CFB plays this season after ending the 2020 season hitting 57%!! Overall, we are 35-22 (62%) in our last 57 MLB, CFB, NFL plays!! Seven CFB packages and a 6-PACK of winners are loaded for Saturday at SPORTS PICK HUB !!
You can also get my monthly all access passHERE at The Odds Breakers.
The Ohio Bobcats and the Northwestern Wildcats will square off in Evanston, Illinois at Ryan Field on Saturday afternoon. The Bobcats are coming off an embarrassing display last Thursday night when they got blown out 49-14 by a very good Louisiana Lafayette squad. That gave them a couple more days to prepare for the Wildcats who are coming off a 30-23 loss to the Duke Blue Devils. Ohio comes in averaging 301 yards per game, 5.5 yards per play and just 16.3 points per game against defenses giving up 25.8 points per game. The strength of the Bobcats is running the football and I expect them to attack a vulnerable Northwestern defense who is giving up 5 yards per rush so far this season. The Wildcats enter this contest averaging 364 yards per game, 5.1 yards per play and 22.7 points per game. I mentioned that Ohio’s strength is their rushing offense, well their weakness is definitely their rush defense as they are giving up a healthy 5.5 yards per rush. Northwestern has been shaky holding onto the football as they average 2.5 giveaways per game this season, which is good enough for 115th in the nation. Neither of these teams have quick scoring offenses as Northwestern has the edge averaging 18.6 yards per point (97th in the nation) while the Bobcats need 25.9 yards between each point (118th in the country). Additionally, wind speeds of 10-13 mph are expected during game time which will also force both teams to run more. I expect this to be a grind it out game that will feature a heavy ground game with Northwestern winning this one by a score of 23-12 and to go under the total by 13 points. Take Under 48 points
We had a great start to football with 3 wins Thursday night (Marshall +7, Panthers -7.5 and a teaser on CAR/Total under 50)! Let’s keep it rolling as we tackle another weekend on the gridiron. Become part of the winning team and check out my premium picks here!
Troy -24 (-110), 2 units: The 2-1 Troy Trojans travel to Monroe, Louisiana to take on the 1-1 UL Monroe Warhawks. Troy started off their season with an impressive win over Southern, where they showed off a diverse amount of offensive talent in a 55-3 victory. I think this game could look a lot like that one. UL Monroe is a bottom-feeder in the Sun Belt Conference and their stats show it. Two games isn’t a huge sample size but if their performance against Kentucky was any indication of how they stack up against stiffer competition, the outlook isn’t great for their 8:00pm showdown Saturday with the Trojans. UL Monroe’s defense has been atrocious, allowing 424.5 yards per game in two contests. On the other side, their offense is only averaging 2 yards per rush and 168 total yards per game. The Trojans are in a different class– they showed a gritty defensive effort in one-score loss to Liberty and their offense is consistent and capable. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record – Take Troy!
Falcons +3 (-120), 2 units: The Falcons somehow started their season as favorites at home against the Eagles, but we were all over that one. After getting punked in Week 1 in Atlanta, the Falcons headed down to Tampa Bay to face the reigning Super Bowl Champions and things didn’t get much better. Personally, I took the Falcons at +12.5 since it was a divisional game and they’ve shown the moxie to hang with elite teams in the past. Not so much last Sunday. Matt Ryan sealed their loss with two straight pick-six interceptions and it was another blowout loss for the stumbling Falcons under new coach Arthur Smith. The Falcons are suffering from conservative play-calling, maybe that’s a first year coach thing, and a very shallow roster on defense. Still, Atlanta can put up points– they did against the Bucs and kept it close until the 4th quarter, which is more than we can often say for the New York Giants. My New York Giants (yes, I’m a fan, old news) started the season looking like the same old team we all knew, mustering only 13 points (and really they only scored 7, the last TD in garbage time was cheap) against the Broncos in Week 1. The Giants looked better last week against Washington but that’s nothing new for the G-Men. Danny Dimes was 4-0 against the Football Team coming into that game. For what it’s worth, Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense looked considerably better last Thursday night. Be that as it may, I just can’t trust the Giants as a favorite, even against the Falcons. Their defense has underperformed and their offense is too inconsistent and conservative, which is indicative of a Jason Garrett led scheme (aka a snooze fest). The Falcons are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 4-8 the last 4 years as a favorite and they were 0-2 ATS as a favorite last year, and as a Giants fan I can not-so-proudly attest to this pain. Take the Falcons to cover in a game they could very well win.
Cardinals/Jaguars over 52 (-110), 2 units: This is a game script bet that I really love. The Cardinals have been one of the most exciting teams to watch in the early part of the NFL season. Kyler Murray is showing 3.0 versions of himself in his 3rd year– he’s healthy, seemingly even quicker on his feet, and his arm looks refined. He’s also reading the field better and making much better decisions. Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence could only wish to share the same vantage point. Trevor spent his entire pre-professional career without any losses. After two NFL games against pro athletes, the kid hasn’t won yet. He’ll improve and in 2 weeks he’s unleashed a few really impressive throws, but the Urban Meyer-led offense clearly still has some kinks to work through. Arizona, on the other hand, has scored 34 and 38 points in their first two games against mid-tier, formidable defenses. Kyler looks unstoppable and it appears, key word appears, that Kliff Kingsbury’s schemes are starting to work. I love that narrative going up against the Jags defense. Jacksonville hasn’t been able to stop two average offenses in Denver and Houston, allowing them to score 37 and 23 points for an average of 437.5 yards per contest. That’s right on par with the Cardinals, who have averaged a whopping 467 yards per game thus far. Jacksonville’s offense hasn’t been stellar but they can move the ball down the field, and last week showed us that the Cardinals’ defense still has plenty to improve upon. I like this bet even more since Lawrence has shown a tendency to throw errant passes– he already has 5 INTs. The Cardinals should easily get into the 30s and I expect the Jags to at least eclipse the 20s– what’s Urban and this developing offense have to lose? I’m on the OVER.
We have a clash of the heavy weights in matchweek 6 of the English Premier League. Last years winners of the EPL currently sit at 5th in the Table (3-1-1, 10 points), while Champions League winners Chelsea sit on the top of the Table (4-1-0, 13 points). This will be the first time these two teams face off since Chelsea upset Manchester City in the Champions League final by a score of 1-0. This is the match of the week as these are two favorites to win the EPL this season. With a win here, Chelsea can move 6 points clear of City while if City win, they can tie Chelsea win points and move up in the Table. This should be a great game, lets breakdown this matchup and find some winners.
Manchester City @ Chelsea
Information:
Kick-Off: 7:30 AM ET
Location: Stamford Bridge – London, England (Chelsea home)
TV Schedule: NBC Peacock
Odds (via Draftkings):
Moneyline
Chelsea (+165)
Manchester City (+175)
Spread
Chelsea -0.5 (+165), Chelsea +0.5 (-200)
Manchester City +0.5 (-190), Manchester City -0.5 (+175)
Draw (+230)
Total: 2.5 (U 2.5 -125, O +100)
Preview:
Chelsea has yet to lose in the EPL this year, with four wins, and a draw through their first five fixtures. They also are leading the League with a +11 goal differential. They have only allowed one goal this season, which came back on August 22 when they drew Liverpool 1-1.
Manchester City has also been lights out as of recent after dropping the first League game 1-0 to Tottenham. Since that game, they have not allowed a goal against in their last four EPL matches. They have the second best goal differential in the League with a +10. In their most recent EPL game, they drew Southampton which was a massive shock as they were heavy favorites to win.
Both of these squads played in the League Cup earlier this week with Manchester City defeating the Wycombe Wonderers 6-1 and Chelsea knocking off Aston Villa 4-3 in Penalties.
Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea side currently on a three game unbeaten streak against Pep Guardiola’s Machester City squad. Chelsea knocked them out of the League Cup, defeated them in a Premier League fixture, and in the Champions League final as mentioned previously.
This should be a low scoring matchup given the games these teams have played against each other in the past. Thomas Tuchel prides himself on his squads ability to possess the ball and shut down any attacking threats from an opponent. However, with the addition of Striker Romelu Lukaku it has given Chelsea an attacking ability that they were desperately lacking last season.
Manchester City saw the departure of their long time Striker in Sergio Aguero to Barcelona in the summer transfer window. However, City replaced some attacking power with the signing forward Jack Grealish from Aston Villa for 100 million pounds.
Pick:
DRAW NO BET – Chelsea (-110)
Given the recent struggles that Pep Guardiola has had matching up against Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea side, I believe this game is a close one that ends in 1-0, 1-1. Chelsea have been in great form as of late and have shown no signs of slowing down. The addition of Lukaku it’s another aspect that Manchester City didn’t have to account for in previous matchups.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
