Here is a game where perception doesn’t seem to tell the full story. Both of these teams are coming off stellar seasons last year where Iowa was 1.08 net yards per play and Iowa State was .95. Both of these teams return a lot of production so that pretty much has to be called even Steven. Last year, Iowa State had the better offense and Iowa had the better defense. Brock Purdy is pretty good at slinging the ball and some of last year’s metrics back that up, but he’s not an NFL caliber QB in my opinion. Spencer Petras might not have to do much if they can get their running game going. Some of the advanced analytics say that Iowa State has the better offensive line and should be favored but I am calling some BS on that because Iowa was the more efficient team last year at 11.6 yards per point to Iowa State’s 13.3 yards per point. My Power ratings have Iowa the better team by about 2 points and this spread should be close to a pick-em in a game in Aims that will have fans from both teams. The Hawkeye’s have controlled this matchup and they won the last 5 games against the Clones. Iowa State’s last win this game was back in 2014. I’ll gladly take the points.
IOWA +4.5 – 4 stars and sprinkle
Rutgers vs Syracuse +2 O/U 51.5
Here is a game where both teams really took care of their business. Rutgers beat Temple by 47 points and Syracuse beat Ohio by a solid 20. I think that the reason this line is so close is because of the Orangeman’s big win here but looking at the Box score, Cuse only out-gained the Bobcat’s by 37 yards or so which tells me that I still can’t trust them. Looking at this line, I have Rutgers by a solid 3 points but looking at the direction of these 2 programs, I think that Rutgers going up and Cuse is dropping down. Let’s not kid ourselves, both of these programs have their issues but I think that Rutgers has been getting better transfers into their school over the past 2 seasons than Syracuse has and I think that I can trust Greg Schiano more than Dino Babers up to this point. Cuse is playing with a new Offensive line and even though that they should be better than what they were last year, Rutgers is now a defensive oriented team with Schiano running the program and I expect them to win in the Trenches. I am going to grab Rutgers under the 3 and I think that it will kickstart their season after a win at Syracuse.
Rutgers -2 – 2 stars
Washington vs Michigan -6.5 O/U 49
This is an interesting non-conference game where both of these schools used to be more respected
The Wolverines actually started the season well by beating Western Michigan 47-14. They played well in all 3 phases of football
The Huskies on the other hand played like crap vs Montana and lost their game outright. QB Dylan Morris through for 3 interceptions and could not get anything going.
Washington hasn’t been the same team since their great Coach Chris Peterson left in 2019 and I do not think that Jimmy Lake compares. As much crap as Jim Harbaugh gets from the media, he is the better coach here and has his team looking ok so far this season.
Looking at their performances, it feels like an over-reaction to bet on Michigan this week especially since the look ahead line was 1, but the truth of the matter, is that my Power ratings have Michigan 4 points better than Washington and I need to give Michigan at least 3.5 points for their home field. I gave this out at 6 but I like this all the way to 7.Michigan -6.5 – 2 stars
Thank you for being patient with us as the previous upload became corrupted.
It’s Episode 13 of Laying the Points and we MADE IT– the NFL Season is upon us! Check out this podcast every single Thursday for a full ATS Breakdown of every NFL contest!
(this is a redo of Thursday’s podcast from this week, which we had technical issues with)
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*CFB(1u): Boise State -26(-110) vs UTEP–Fri 8:30 PM CT
Boise State is coming off a disappointing Week 1 loss at UCF in which the offense completely melted down in the second half. Now, the Broncos return back home and get an absolute dream matchup. UTEP might be 2-0, but their wins have come against New Mexico State(widely regarded as the worst team in the FBS) and Bethune-Cookman(which was a mere 10 point victory). The Miners haven’t shown any signs of life in recent years against the Boise State’s of the world, so I see tonight as a perfect opportunity for the Broncos to find their rhythm and take out their frustrations on a clearly inferior opponent.
*CFB(1.5u): App State/Miami OVER 54(-110)–Saturday 6 PM CT
This is one of the more intriguing Week 2 matchups, and a single-digit line reflects that. However, rather than looking at a side in this one, I’m going to take a look towards this Over. While App State QB Chase Brice had his struggles at Duke last season, this new opportunity provides him a fresh start; last week, the super senior completed 20 of 27 passes and tossed for 2 TD’s in a win against East Carolina. He is afforded the luxury of having 2 great options at RB, each of whom rushed for 100 yards in last week’s game, as well as multiple dynamic receivers. There’s a notion that Miami HC Manny Diaz is some great defensive mind, but I refuse to believe it(as a Texas fan, ask me how I know). Even with 3 NFL-caliber DE’s on last year’s team, the defense had multiple blow-up performances(41 points allowed @ NC State, 62 points vs UNC). While it’s hard to knock them for losing to Alabama last week, the defense looked totally outmatched. I believe App State’s balance between the run and pass gives them an advantage entering this matchup. That being said, Miami’s offense should get back on track this week after facing possibly the best Alabama defense in the Saban era last week. While the ‘Canes couldn’t put together many chunk plays, D’Eriq King was still efficient, and Miami has a sizable athletic advantage matching up with App State’s defense. While I wouldn’t say I expect a shootout in Hard Rock Stadium, this total is simply too low given what each of these offenses can do.
*CFB(1u): Washington/Michigan UNDER 48.5(-110)–Saturday 7 PM CT
Washington might be out on the west coast, but they play much more of a “Big10” style of football than the novice fan would guess. While they aren’t expected to light up the scoreboard, there is no excuse for scoring 7 points against Montana, and they earned every bit of that loss last week. They had double the amount of first downs as Montana did in that game, but 3 turnovers from QB Dylan Morris put the nail in the coffin. I expect improvement this week, but this is Morris’s first true road test(there were no fans in Pac 12 games last season). I think Washington would be lucky to get to 21 in this game, but luckily for them, they’ve got a really stout defense to rely on. HC Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded HC that can rely on one of the stoutest front 7’s in the country; while there are some questions in the secondary, it helps that Michigan’s top WR Ronnie Bell was lost for the season last week. Michigan OC Josh Gattis deployed a very run-heavy attack in their opener; that simply won’t work against this Huskies front 7. Cade McNamara is a better QB than given credit for, but the loss of his top WR and a suspect OC could hold him back in this one. I don’t think either team eclipses the 24 point mark, and each defense should step up to keep this one under the total.
*CFB(1u): Utah/BYU UNDER 48.5(-110)–Sat 9:15 PM CT
The “Holy War” is one of the most intense and underrated rivalries in all of CFB. These two programs really don’t like each other, and when you combine that with the way these teams match up, I think we’re in for a rock fight in the late slate of action on Saturday. BYU was unimpressive in their 8 point win over lowly Arizona last week, and it’s clear that this offense doesn’t have what it takes to replace the explosivity last year’s team provided. Utah’s defense is consistently one of the best defenses in the Pac12, and because they specialize in the second level, I think they’ll force BYU QB Jaren Hall(making his first road start) into some uncomfortable situations. Utah looks much better on paper than BYU, but I’m not high on senior QB Charlie Brewer(I’ll die on the hill that the 2019 Baylor team was nothing more than a 7 win team that ran into a string of luck). A series of injuries have severely limited Brewer’s upside, and he is never going to lead an explosive offense. BYU was one of the best defenses in the country last year, and given that Utah looked sluggish against Weber State last week, I trust their defense to get stops and keep them in this game. This just missed being on my premium card, but it’s safe to say I really like this Under.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Virginia, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh(+147)–must be placed by Sat 10 AM CT
Virginia hosts Illinois very early on Saturday morning, and it’s clear they have the athletic advantage in this matchup. The Cavs looked solid in their opener last week, and I expect the versatility of QB Brennan Armstrong to be too much for the Illini to match. Illinois came back down to earth with a loss against UTSA last week, and their Week 0 win against Nebraska was due much more to the Cornhuskers’ inadequacies. Oklahoma State hosts in-state Tulsa in a rematch from one of the uglier games of the 2020 season. Tulsa had a solid 2020 season, but with LB Zaven Collins on to the NFL, I don’t know if there defense can be thought of in the same regard. In any case, their offense is pretty horrid, which was showcased last week in a 19-17 loss to UC Davis. Even with a talented QB in Zach Smith last season, the Golden Hurricanes left a lot to be desired on that side of the ball, so they don’t figure to match up well with a good Oklahoma State defense. While the Pokes squeaked by with only a 7 point win against Missouri State in the opener, much of that can be attributed to the late scratch of starting QB Spencer Sanders. Sanders is expected back for this game and provides a major upgrade from Shane Illingworth, so I think the Cowboys will display a much better product this week. Lastly, I’m very bullish on Pitt winning on the road at Tennessee. The Panthers are historically very bad in the red zone and struggle to establish the run, but Tennessee’s LB situation is pretty bleak at the moment. Kenny Pickett is as experienced as they come at the QB position, and Pat Narduzzi is accustomed to beating undisciplined teams like Tennessee. The Vols will run their offense with a lot more pace this season, but as far as I see it, that just gives Joe Milton more chances to screw up against what’s a stingy Pitt defense. Tennessee would be the sexy pick, but Pitt is the smart pick.
*CFB(2u): Cal +11.5(+100) @ TCU–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
This line is an overreaction to Cal’s loss to Nevada last week and also grossly overvalues this TCU team. Nevada is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country this year, and they feature a QB in Carson Strong who is one of the top prospects for the upcoming NFL Draft. Even so, Cal held Nevada to under 400 yards offensively, including just 61 yards on the ground. TCU is much better on the ground than they are through the air; while QB Max Duggan is mobile, he completed just 57.6% of his passes last year and can’t be trusted to make the throws needed to cover this number. While TCU’s defense is well coached, I expect a bounce back performance from the Cal offense this week. QB Chase Garbers is in his 4th year as Cal’s starter, and this environment will be no sweat for the veteran. The Golden Bears are a team that I expect to play a lot of close games this season; in other words, they are not going to excel as a favorite, but they are more than capable of covering this big of a number as underdogs. This is my best bet for Week 2, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Cal has a chance of winning this game late.
I cashed a 2u play on Rutgers last weekend as they absolutely demolished Temple 61-14. I identified the Scarlet Knights as a team that will have some value early in the season, and it appears the betting market has still not caught up to Rutgers’ true value, even after beating the closing line by 33 points last week. Syracuse is one of the worst(if not the worst) Power 5 teams this season, and while they get this game at home, I don’t see the Carrier Dome environment providing them much of an advantage. Syracuse QB Tommy DeVito might have experience, but his time at Syracuse has been a total dud. He lacks the mobility to excel against physical defenses; sacks have been an issue in the past, and I think that will continue on Saturday against an experienced and productive Rutgers front 7. What’s funny about Rutgers is that they weren’t even very productive offensively last week, yet they still managed to eclipse the 60 point barrier. Syracuse ranked 111th in yards allowed/game last season, so I would expect a more efficient performance from QB Noah Vedral through the air. Rutgers is a complete team that can score points in an abundance of ways, and I think they’ll totally outmatch the Orange on Saturday. I would advocate taking them on the ML to avoid any funny business on the -2 spread, but it shouldn’t end up mattering either way.
*CFB(1.5u): Iowa/Iowa State UNDER 46(-110)–Sat 3:30 PM CT
While I’m not saying to always look towards an Under in a rivalry game setting, it tends to work out more times than not. For reference, the Under has hit 13-2 in these teams’ last 15 meetings; with the way these teams match up this year, I expect that the Under trend to continue. Iowa managed to dominate Indiana last week, but the 34-6 final is a bit misleading if you don’t add some context. Iowa scored 20 points off of turnovers and managed just 303 yards of total offense. Hawkeyes QB Spencer Petras is an inefficient passer(56% completion in his career), and under the leadership of traditionalist Kirk Ferentz, this team runs their offense at a slow pace. Iowa State’s defense is effective in virtually every area, but led by LB Mike Rose, they specialize at the second level. That gives them a leg up to help stop an effective running attack and will likely put the game in the arm of Pedras. While I expect Iowa’s offense to struggle, you can’t discount how good their defense looked last week. Indiana was an effective offense in 2020, so not allowing a TD in the season opener is a major accomplishment. The public loves Iowa State’s offense, but I believe they are more ineffective than publicly perceived. Of course, RB Breece Hall is a dynamic back(I don’t deny that), but I’m not as high on Brock Purdy and the Cyclones passing attack as most. One good piece of news for ISU is they’ll welcome back TE Charlie Kolar from injury, who in my opinion is their catalyst and most important weapon. Even so, this Cyclones team is built more to sustain drives than they are to light up the scoreboard, and they’ll have no free yards against what could be an elite Iowa defense. I think this is a game where the first team to 20 wins; I think Iowa State will win by a FG and this game will stay under the total.
*CFB(1u): Western Kentucky +7 @ Army–Sat 10:30 AM CT
This line stood out to me like a sore thumb when I initially glanced at this Week 2 card. Western Kentucky added HBU transfer Bailey Zappe at QB as well as his top receiver from HBU(Jerreth Sterns), and suddenly the Hilltoppers have a real chance to put up record numbers offensively this season. Following a career at HBU that saw Zappe throw 78 TD’s, the senior shined in his first game at WKU last week, throwing for 424 yards and 7 TD’s. While Army will attempt to slow this game down through the use of their triple option scheme, I just don’t think they’re prepared for what’s coming with WKU’s prolific passing attack. Western Kentucky has a ton of new faces of defenses, and while they were effective last season, those question marks keep this at a 1u play. But, I’m more than willing to take a shot with a guy who’s done nothing but light up the scoreboard as a college QB, especially if you’re going to give me 7 points to work with.
*Week 2 MoneyLine Sprinkles(0.6u each)
*Western Kentucky ML(+215) @ Army
*Cal ML(+340) @ TCU
*Washington ML(+215) @ Michigan
These first two sprinkles are self-explanatory given that I took the points with each of those teams. As for this Washington pick, I think the market has overreacted to their Week 1 loss, which has driven this line up in Michigan’s favor. While that loss was inexcusable, I have a lot of confidence in Washington’s defense and think they will be able to hold a somewhat stagnant Michigan offense at bay. The Huskies lost last week because of 3 Dylan Morris turnovers, and he will certainly need to clean that up. I still think Washington is the better team, and they are worth a shot for me at greater than 2:1 odds.
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The Chicago White Sox and the Oakland Athletics play the rubber match in their 3- series today at RingCentral Coliseum. Right-hander Reynaldo Lopez will hone the mound for the ChiSox. He comes into this one owning a 2.08 ERA and 0.72 WHIP across 39 innings pitched this season. In what is a short sample size, Lopez has earned a 0.89 WHIP and 3.38 xFIP in 19 innings pitched on the road this year. Lefty Sean Manaea will go for the A’s. He has posted a 3.91 and 1.22 WHIP over 149.2 innings pitched this year. At home this season, Manaea owns a 4.15 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 4.26 FIP while posting similar numbers in the second half (1.28 WHIP and 4.86 FIP). Chicago owns the 5th best batting average (.281) over the past week while the A’s bats have been average hitting .249 in the past week. The White Sox also rank in the top 10 of the league in batting average (.274), OPS (.790), ISO (.179), wOBA (.339) and wRC+ (116) against left-handed pitching on the road this season. On the flip side, Oakland ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in hits (331), homeruns (48), runs scored (191) and batting average (.230) versus right-handed pitching at home this season. Additionally, the Athletics bullpen has pitched to a below average 1.30 WHIP, 5.00 ERA and a 24th ranked 4.89 xFIP over the past month while the White Sox own the 2nd best xFIP (3.66) over the same timeframe. I predict this should be a closer game with Chicago prevailing in the later innings. Take the White Sox +132
The Colorado Rockies travel to Philadelphia to start a 4-game series with the Phillies tonight at Citizens Bank Park. Right-hander Antonio Senzatela takes the mound for the Rockies. He is 4-9 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 132 innings pitched this season. Since the break, Senzatela owns a 1.09 WHIP, an on par .393 BABIP and 3.95 xFIP. Lefty Ranger Suarez will get the nod for the Phillies. He comes in posting a 6-4 record, 1.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across 72 innings pitched on the year. At home this season, Suarez has pitched to a 1.40 ERA, .161 opponent batting average, 0.88 WHIP and 2.49 FIP. These two offenses have struggled mightily lately ranking in the bottom 3rd of the league in batting average, wOBA and wRC+ in the past week. Colorado ranks dead last in hits (471), runs scored (59), batting average (.211), wOBA (.273) and wRC+ (68) on the road this season while Philly ranks 22nd in runs scored (206) and wRC+ (92) versus right-handed pitching at home this year. I don’t see many runs scored in this ballgame. Additionally, the sharps seem to be on this side and the market is moving in our favor. Take Under 8.5 runs
We have a MASSIVE show for you today so we had to do it in 2 parts! Las Vegas Cris @LasVegasCris @VegasSynergy is back to break down the NFL with some contest talk and a few games! First, Cris tells us which contests that he is entering and a few of them that he is considering. Then, Cris and Kiev talk about the importance of coaching and talent and try and differentiate the qualities of each. Next, Cris tells us why he compiled all of his records and the information that he was looking to find throughout his 5 year betting history. Then, Cris gets into what he likes to do for his approach when looking at the 5 stale lines that he is picking in NFL Contests and why it might be different than how he actually might wager. Next, the guys get into 2 NFL games and if they like a side or not. Next Kiev gives out an NFL game that he is playing this week. Finally, we get into some College Football and NFL Sharp money followed by a teaser for week 1!
Footballcontest.com – Circa millions – Westgate Super Contest – William Hill
NFL: Dallas vs Tampa Bay – Denver vs New York Giants
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*3 Star Free Pick* The Chicago White Sox have been elite against left handed pitching the last two years. Chicago ranks 4th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against left handed pitching. Sean Manaea has been up and down this year for the Athletics. He’ll likely find it tough to get through this one without allowing quite a bit of traffic on the bases. Manaea enters this game with 3 poor starts in his last 5 outings.
Reynaldo Lopez starts for the White Sox. Lopez has all the stuff necessary to be very good, but his control is lacking. Oakland busted out of an offensive slump yesterday, and the hitting conditions are quite a bit better in the daytime in Oakland than at night.
Adrian Johnson is the home plate umpire here, and he has been a very hitter-friendly umpire in the long run. He’ll likely make things tough on the pitchers in this one.
We have a MASSIVE show for you today so we had to do it in 2 parts! Tony George @TGeorgeSports from DocsSports.com is back to talk about some NFL and College Football! First, Kiev introduces our cappers for 2021 and talks about footballcontest.com. Next, Tony comes on and the guys get right into The Big 12 and all of the changes going on in college football. Then, Tony and Kiev get into some college football lines with some leans and some plays. After that, the guys talk some NFL football week 1 with some more leans and plays. Finally, Kiev gives out a few free college football plays! If you are a DFS capper and would like to contribute to TheOddsBreakers.com, please contact us on our website!
NCAA: Iowa vs Iowa State – Oregon vs Ohio State – Buffalo vs Nebraska – Rutgers vs Syracuse
NFL: LA Chargers vs Washington – Arizona vs Tennessee – Cleveland vs Kansas City
Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
Check out Footballcontest.com to get into the huge Las Vegas NFL contests this year and please be sure to tell them that The OddsBreakers sent you.
If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners, please become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves! Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. We are giving away a FREE THE ODDSBREAKERS T-shirt with all signups until October 1st. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.
