NC State Quarterback Devin Leary should be on a mission last year. He started only 4 games due to injury and his numbers were pretty nice throwing 8 TDs and only 2 Interceptions vs some pretty difficult teams. Coach Dave Doeren and offensive coordinator Tim Beck have the paced picked up for this team at 25 seconds per play and they had a nice average score over 30 points per game in the ACC. South Florida was a terrible team last year giving up over 6 yards per play and over 40 points per game in the American Athletic Conference. Their defense replaces 7 starters and I can’t imagine much of a change coming into this game. What also won’t change is that they play a very fast game at 23.9 seconds per play which doesn’t bode well for giving up points. Now I am not sure how many points USF can put up this game being that they only averaged 23 last year but I do think that NC State should score at least 6 touchdowns which should bring them over the team total of 38.5. Last year, USF Gave up 39 or more points in 5 of their last 5 games. Take a team total over on the Wolfpack.
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The South Florida Bulls will begin their season in Raleigh, North Carolina as they prepare to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Thursday night at Carter-Finley Stadium. NC State is coming off an 8-4 2020 season which included a loss to Kentucky in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl while USF finished 1-8 in Jeff Scott’s first season as Bulls’ head coach.
Thursday will be the fourth time USF and NC State have met on the gridiron and the first time since 2014. USF will look to quarterback Cade Fortin to lead this offense after last year’s starter and playmaker, Jordan McCloud, transferred to Arizona. Even with McCloud, USF ranked 90th in the nation in yards per game (365.3) last season. This will be Fortin’s fourth college season and just his third start. He only had 8 attempts last season and will be behind an offensive line that surrendered 30 sacks in nine games last year. USF does have an experienced group of receivers in Omarion Dollison and Latrell Williams. Bryce Miller also is back after leading the Bulls in receiving last year with 33 catches for 327 yards and three touchdowns and Xavier Weaver returns as the home-run threat. Running backs, Kelley Joiner and Brian Battie, are expected to split carries again this year as they both were the top two-yard gainers out of the backfield a year ago.
The Wolfpack are led by fourth-year sophomore quarterback Devin Leary, who started in three games in 2020 before suffering a broken left foot against Duke last October. In four games, Leary threw for 890 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. NC State looks to improve upon their 74th ranked offense last season and has a number of players returning including sophomore running back Zonovan “Bam” Knight and senior wide receiver Emeka Emezie. Knight was a first-team preseason All-ACC selection after compiling 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. Emezie, the 6-foot-3 receiver, pulled in 47 receptions for 738 yards and five touchdowns. He also ranks fifth in NC State history with 169 catches.
USF’s defense allowed 441.4 yards per game last season which ranked them 94th in the nation. USF should be better in Scott’s second season and returned their top two tacklers in linebackers Antonio Grier and Dwayne Boyles and their top interception leader in corner Daquan Evans. Something to build upon.
On the other sideline, NC State gave up 415 yards per game (71st in nation) and owned a -6-turnover margin (97th in nation) last season. The Wolfpack D welcomes back their top two linebackers and tacklers, Payton Wilson and Isaiah Moore. Both could have a huge day against the Bulls. NC State should have little trouble cruising to a season-opening victory at home. Wolfpack head coach said this about his defensive line this week, “We’ve got experience and depth on the defensive line. We expect those guys to battle in there for us, and create havoc and disruption, to beat the other team on plays in the backfield. I think it’s a hungry group. It’s a group that probably feels disrespected a little bit. I think there’s been a lot of things written about them in a negative way that they’ve read and I think there’s a chip on our shoulder.”
I anticipate the NC State defense having their way with the USF offensive line and I look for NC State to take a firm grip on this ballgame in the first half and slow the game down by running the ball and the clock in the second half.
Take Under 59 points
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Ladies and gentleman, we made it! Football season is officially here as we enter the REAL Week 1 of the college football season! Stadium lights will shine bright all over the nation as we kick off what should be an entertaining (and we’re praying, a more normal) season on the gridiron. Here’s my take on a huge big-10 showdown on Thursday night:
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Ohio State -14 (-110), 1.5 units: The mighty Ohio State Buckeyes will look different this year without Justin Fields and other key skill players that made their 2020 team so dominant. Exempting their loss to Alabama in the National Title game, Ohio State beat all 7 of their 2020 opponents by an average of 21.4 points. They had a top 10 offense and a bend-don’t-break defense, which led to a 4-4 ATS record. Of course, in a COVID year with limited fans, it’s hard to evaluate how much weight any ATS records carry into this season. We’ll monitor that moving forward.
Ohio State lost a ton of talented players in the draft– 10 to be exact– but that’s nothing unusual for one of the nation’s premiere organizations. The Buckeyes are no doubt a reload and revamp operation and we have little reason to believe 2021 will look much different. CJ Stroud will take over for Fields as Ohio State’s quarterback and while he may need time to grow, the size, talent, and football IQ is all there. If things get murky, he’d have to compete with high-school sensation Quinn Ewers– who left HS early to get a head-start on his football career– and redshirt Freshman Jack Miller isn’t out of the mix either. Regardless, the Buckeyes have a tremendous amount of talent across their offense once again. Their primary receiving target, Chris Olave, is back for another year and they’re loaded with new stars at RB, WR, TE, and along their OL. The defense will lose some of its depth but they have plenty of eager young athletes ready to make an impact.
P.J. Fleck and his Minnesota Gophers get a great spot, at home, against one of the nation’s best teams to start their reason. They’ll be AMPED, to say the least, and I expect that Minnesota crowd to make a difference early.
The main reason I’m fading Minnesota is because of their style of play. On paper, not much should change this year. The Gophers rely on a formidable running attack behind an exceptional offensive line– which they still have– and they like to manage the game behind a slow, cerebral attack. Quarterback Tanner Morgan is serviceable but his numbers have regressed with experience, which is typically not a great sign. He’s a game manager, at best. Their style of play can work early against a new-look Ohio State team that needs more experience on the field, but eventually OSU’s talent should overwhelm the home team. Minnesota still has plenty to be concerned about on defense (they were one of the worst defenses in the Big 10 last season), and as they game trudges on, it’ll become very difficult for the Minnesota offense to stay on pace with the Buckeyes.
The sharps are definitely on Minnesota in this game and it makes sense– there’s enough uncertainty about Ohio State to favor a home dog. Still, Ohio State is clearly the more talented unit, in every aspect, and I expect them to overwhelm the Gophers in the second half of this contest. Bottom line– they have a massive advantage in talent and coaching. If you like Minnesota, take them early. The Buckeyes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite; I expect them to cover in their opener.
We have a huge show for you today! Brad Powers @BradPowers7 from BradPowersSports.com comes on to break down a MASSIVE week 1 of college football. First, Kiev starts the show talking about the importance of bankroll management in order to mentally get through the ebbs and flows of sports betting within an entire season. Then, Brad Powers comes on to discuss a huge weekend in college football. The guys quickly discuss Brad’s history in sports betting as well as some of his philosophies used to attack the market. Next, Brad and Kiev get right into college football week 1B discussing some of the biggest games with some sides and some leans. Then, Brad and Kiev give out a few FREE plays that are way under the radar coming into the weekend. Finally, Kiev gives out a UFC play that he thinks is misprices for the weekend. Should you have any questions for any games this weekend or for next week’s episode, please feel free to reach out to us @theoddsbreakers on twitter!
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The Thursday Card has an Executive Level Tier 1 Total along with an Opening week Undefeated Power Side headlining College Football. We also have a World Cup Qualifier Soccer Total an MLB. Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on Oakland at 1:10 eastern. Oakland has owned Detroit winning 23 of the last 25 in the series. They are 5-1 of late on Thursdays and have won 8 of 10 vs a losing team. The Tigers are 24-65 at home vs a winning team and 17-37 on Thursdays. Montas for for Oakland has better numbers than Manning for Detroit. Look for Oakland to take the finale. On Thursday College Football takes center stage and we have an Executive Level Tier 1 Total and a Perfect System Side in Big 10 action. There is also MLB and a World Cup Qualifier Soccer total. See us on facebook or at goldencontender@aol.com to jump on. For the MLB Comp Play. Play on Oakland. Rob V- GC Sports
Welcome to September, people! We continue on after a nice win yesterday– we’re 36-15 the last four weeks! Onto today’s free pick:
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Giants -1.5 (+120 at Bovada), 2 units: This is a spot play on the team with the best record in baseball. San Francisco is holding onto a tiny 1/2 game lead in the NL West– here come the Dodgers!– and they’re in a rare position against the Brewers, at home, as losers of 4 of their last 5 games and 2 straight contests against the visiting team. That hasn’t happened often for the 2021 Giants and it won’t last. After a tough July, Kevin Gausman recalibrated and had another commanding month in August. I trust him today even though he’s up against a surging group of hitters. Few pitchers have been able to limit Milwaukee’s bats lately but Gausman is one of the few who can; and he’s been one of the most consistent major league pitchers all season. Four straight losses and a 5.40 ERA in August has the Brewers’ Brett Anderson as one of my fade candidates as we near the end of the regular season. This is a fantastic combination of factors in favor of the home team. The Giants are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 42-15 (74%) in their last 57 contests as a home favorite. I’m on the Giants by margin.
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*CFB(1u): Boise State +5(-110) @ UCF–Thursday 6:00 PM CT
This is one of the more interesting Week 1 matchups on the board featuring two of the top G5 programs in the country who are both breaking in new Head Coaches. UCF hands the reins over to former Auburn HC Gus Malzahn, who takes control of an offense that has been one of the most explosive in the country over the last few seasons. However, given Malzahn’s style, I’m not sure that will continue. UCF led the country by a wide margin in plays/game last season(88), while Malzahn’s Auburn team ran just 70 plays/game. He has the luxury of inheriting a phenomenal QB in Dillon Gabriel, but I wonder how well Gabriel will fit into Malzahn’s more methodical style of offense. UCF will have to integrate transfers in at both the RB and WR position as well, so it’s unlikely they’re on their A game out of the gate. Boise State HC Andy Avalos is a defensive-minded HC who inherits a defense that ranked in the top-third a year ago in yards/game and returns a ton of experience in the front 7. The Boise State offense might not be as sexy as UCF’s has been in previous years, but they are certainly very efficient. QB Hank Bachmeier has had to deal with an assortment of injuries through his first two seasons, but when he’s healthy, he’s been very effective. This is the same guy that, in his first career start as a true freshman, led Boise State to an outright road victory on the road against Florida State. He has a plethora of talented WR’s to work with and should have time to throw while playing behind an experienced OL that only got better through the transfer market this offseason. I don’t think UCF’s defensive struggles are being talked about enough entering this matchup; last season, they were 123rd in the country in yards/game(491.8) and consistently got shown up. While improvement is expected, it’s unrealistic to expect them to be a “good” defense in Game 1 considering how much they struggled last season. UCF is the flashier team that might have the better athletes, but Boise State plays a smarter and more efficient brand of football. The only thing that keeps this from being a multi-unit play is the home-field advantage UCF will enjoy, but I expect Boise State to keep this game within a field goal and very possibly win outright.
*CFB(2u): Rutgers TT OVER 32.5(-115) vs Temple–Thursday 5:30 PM CT
For the majority of programs, a 3-6 season would not be celebrated. But considering how far Rutgers had fallen prior to last season, a 3-6 2020 should be seen as a major step in the right direction. Head Coach Greg Schiano has turned Rutgers around once before, and it appears he’s gearing up to do the same thing. They’ll have the luxury of a sold out crowd for this season opener, and Schiano’s experienced group should be poised for a hot start to the season. The Rutgers offense saw major improvements last season, mostly due to the addition of Nebraska transfer QB Noah Vedral. Vedral was the primary starter for Rutgers last year and can beat teams with his arm as well as his legs. He’s joined in the backfield by 4th year RB Isaih Pachecho(who excels as a pass catcher) and surrounded by a talented WR group and an OL that returns all 5 starters. Temple is undermanned and inexperienced on the DL, meaning the experienced Rutgers OL should be able to set the tone for the offense. That bodes horribly for a Temple team that projects to be below average in the secondary. Rutgers was in the top-third in the country in plays per game last season(75.4 plays/game), so they should have plenty of opportunities to get over this number. I would lean towards laying the points with Rutgers as well, but Temple’s offense is a true wild card; they added Georgia transfer QB D’Wan Mathis as well as a few new skill position players in the offseason. I think the Rutgers TT is the best look because their offensive output should be independent of how Temple’s offense plays. If Mathis struggles with turnovers, that helps our case, and if he plays well, Rutgers will be forced to continue playing with a sense of urgency. There is a willingness for Greg Schiano and Rutgers to start this season off with a bang, and I think they’re more than equipped to do so against a lowly Temple team.
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The Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners play the finale of their 3-game set today at T-Mobile Park. Righty Jake Odorizzi will get the nod for the Astros. He is 6-6 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 84.2 innings pitched this season. Odorizzi has been good 1st time though the order posting a 2.84 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 4.05 FIP but after that he seems to be very hittable. Right-hander Logan Gilbert will go for the Mariners and brings in a 5-5 record while posting a 5.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over 86 innings on the year. Gilbert has really struggled since the break owning a 7.96 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 1.93 HR/9 and opponents are hitting .308 against him in 37.1 innings. Gilbert will be going up against a squad that leads the majors in hits (1214), batting average (.267), OPS (.778), wOBA (.335) and wRC+ (117) this season. Houston also owns the best batting average (.269) and 5th best wRC+(113) over the past 30 days while the Mariners rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in hits (213), runs scored (109), batting average (.230), wOBA (.299), and wRC+ (92) in the same monthly timeframe. Additionally, the Astros own the best batting average (.268) and 2nd best wOBA (.331) versus right-handed pitching on the road this season while the Mariners rank dead last in hits (304) and batting average (.217) at home against righties this year. Each team will want to put up runs early on these starters as both bullpens are solid ranking in the top 10 in WHIP and FIP in the past 30 days. I anticipate that Odorrizi will be on a short leach today and the pen will get more work with there being an off day tomorrow and look for the Astros to rough up Gilbert in the early innings today. Take the Astros -124
