Hello football betting fans! Last week we went 8-5 for +10 units on premium picks (and you might want to become a part of the winning team. That is, if you like to win money.. Click this link for a package!). I’m going to try something new this week and you tell me if you like it– I’ll lay out my reasoning for these bets in bulleted format. it takes away some of the art and enjoyment of writing, but the presentation may be easier to comprehend. Let me know what you think! Here are my favorite bets for Week 2:
Steelers -6 (-110), 1.5 units:
The Raiders played over their heads and ended up winning a sloppy game at home to open up “The Death Star” last Monday night against the Ravens. A let-down feels inevitable, especially under the leadership of Jon Gruden. Remember last year when the Raiders beat the Chiefs on the road? Next week they got exposed and they were ultimately smashed by the Bucs at home, ending in a 45-20 rout. Gruden’s team tends to take on his emotionally volatile personality.
The Steelers escaped Buffalo with a win that shocked many (not me) last week, and it was led by their defense (as usual). The modern-day Steel-Curtain sacked Josh Allen 3 times, held him under 300 yards passing, and limited the Bills’ offense to 8/18 on 3rd downs and only 16 points. They also scored a special teams touchdown. The Raiders offense, which thrived against a hurting Baltimore secondary last week, will not have the same advantages Sunday in Pittsburgh.
Las Vegas got the job done last week but they didn’t look great. Penalties, turnovers, and missed opportunities plagued their offense for most of that game. They should be thankful Darren Waller exists– Baltimore’s secondary could not stop him.
The Ravens earned 3 sacks against Vegas but it didn’t feel like it. Derek Carr often had time and space to get the ball off, resulting in long-gains down the field. Something tells me it’ll be a different experience at Heinz Field.
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers thrive at home. In 2020, the Steelers were 5-4 ATS, 7-1 straight up in front of their home fans. It only helps that the Raiders have to travel over 5 hours and 3 time-zones for an early game. Advantage, Pitt.
The Raiders defense got to Lamar Jackson Monday night and looked pretty good for the most part, but I expect some negative regression. At home in a spotlight game in Week 1, everything was in their favor. The Steelers have the talent and leadership to make the Raiders look pedestrian and let’s be honest, the Raiders probably are pedestrian.
Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC and 5-1 in their last 6 September games. I got the -5.5, which is advantageous, but this one could very easily be a blowout. Take the Steelers to cover and don’t look back.
Dolphins +3.5 (-110), 2 units:
It’s time we see the Dolphins as a different team, not the one that was terribly flawed for decades leading up to their most recent resurgence. Brian Flores routinely out-smarts even the best NFL coaches and Miami has legitimate talent on their roster, especially in their secondary. In their home opener, I expect Josh Allen to struggle 2 weeks in a row against what’s, to me, another top 5 NFL defense.
The Bills looked overly deflated after their home opening loss to the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh’s comeback in the 2nd half seemed to startle Josh Allen and their offense, resulting in only 6 points and a ton of missed opportunities in the final 30 minutes.
Miami’s home-field advantage is a real thing, especially in September. With temperatures routinely in the 80s and 90s. Sunday looks to be hot, humid, and potentially sloppy with some thunderstorms circling southern Florida. That has me leaning to the under and favoring Miami’s side in the trenches.
The Dolphins were out-played in several categories against the Patriots last week: third down conversion rate, passing yards, total yards, first downs, time of possession, etc. Still, they found a way to win and cover on the road. That’s the story of the modern Dolphins and I don’t see it being any different Sunday. They find a way.
Miami was the best ATS team in the NFL last year, going 7-1 ATS at home and 11-5 (68.8%) overall in 2020. With Vegas giving us the hook, it’s almost an automatic play on the Dolphins over the key number of 3.
Boosted by the addition of Jaylen Waddle, the Miami offense wasn’t overwhelming but it was effective enough against a solid defense in New England last week. Tua, as much as we criticize him, showed a renewed confidence and calm under pressure, managing the game throughout and capitalizing on opportunities when his team needed it. Luckily for Tua, his late game INT was vindicated by a Patriots fumble. When they were pinned down in their own end-zone, Tua stepped up and made the passes he needed to, securing the win and running out the clock. I like that mental fortitude.
The Miami Dolphins are a very live dog, at home, against a divisional opponent with a storied rivalry. Any time that’s the case– grabbing the hook at +3.5 is almost always the side we’ll take. I’m on Miami for 2 units!
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Central Florida at Louisville – Friday, September 17th – 7:30 ET Kickoff
The Central Florida Knights will travel to Cardinal Stadium to take on the Louisville Cardinals Friday night. This will be UCF’s first road game of the season. The Cardinals opened the season in underwhelming fashion with a 19-point loss against Ole Miss while allowing the Rebels 569 yards of total offense but got things back on track with a 30-3 home victory last week against Eastern Kentucky. Head coach Scott Satterfield said this of their 1st game of the season. “We learned a lot in the Ole Miss game. As you look at Central Florida, they move really fast and are not worried about trying to get the best play like some teams, they run fast plays and hope to catch the defense not lined up. Hopefully we learned some things to do good and correct from the Ole Miss game.“ UCF started the season with a close win versus Boise State and followed that up with an easy win against Bethune-Cookman. Central Florida’s run defense has been outstanding only giving up 1.1 yards per game, however, that was against teams averaging only 2.8 yards per rush. This will be their toughest task as the Cards are rushing for 4.1 YPR and 156 yards per game. New UCF head coach Gus Malzahn said this of the matchup, “It’s going to be a challenge. They run a lot of stretch and outside zone. We’ve not seen a lot of that. That will be a challenge.” Albeit UCF’s defensive line it the strength of the defense, UCF has yet to record a quarterback sack. Louisville will try to get on the edges to take advantage of the second and third level of that defense. That means quick passes, screens, toss sweeps, play action and midrange passes will be a big part of the game plan. In recent games, the Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 2-7 ATS in the past nine as a favorite while the Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. I believe the game versus Ole Miss will really pay some dividends in this one as they already saw a high tempo team and should improve from that showing. This will be the first time UCF has seen a dual threat QB this season, so it will be interesting to see how they handle the Cardinals when they get on the edges. I am not saying the Cardinals win here but I have them covering this spread.
*CFB(1u): Minnesota/Colorado UNDER 48.5(-110)–Sat. Noon PM CT
Minnesota might’ve lost star RB Mohamed Ibrahim for the season, but it doesn’t appear as if PJ Fleck has changed his strategy at all. Last week, the Gophers ran Trey Potts 34(!) times and had QB Tanner Morgan attempt just 17 passes. While I would expect Morgan to have a bigger role in this matchup, it’s clear that the Gophers’ staff don’t have much trust in their WR room and would rather keep things on the ground. Colorado’s defense showed out in a big way last week, limiting Texas A&M to just 10 points. I don’t know whether that can be expected ween in and week out, but I will say that HC Karl Dorrell is a defensive-minded HC; considering the Gophers’ vanilla brand of offense, I expect the Buffs defense to hold strong. For as good as Colorado’s defense played, they left a ton to be desired offensively against the Aggies last week. QB Brendon Lewis has a ton of talent, but he threw for just 89 yards on 25 attempts last week. Much like Minnesota, the Buffs seem content pounding the ground game and don’t seem to want to stretch the field with the pass. I think we will see a truly ugly game in Boulder where the first team to 20 wins. Under is the right play.
*CFB(1u): Georgia Tech/Clemson OVER 52(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
I’ve been on a lot of Unders this season, much to the dismay of the “Life’s too short to bet the Under” crowd. Lucky for you, I see a ton of value in this Over. Clemson’s O-Line failed them in a Week 1 loss to Georgia, but they won’t have to face another defense like that until the postseason. They certainly won’t see that sort of attack from this Yellow Jacket defense, who allowed a whopping 73 points to Clemson last season. While Geoff Collins’ program is on the rise, they aren’t at a point where they’re ready to compete in this game. With a get-right win under their belt from last week, I expect Clemson to have no problem reaching the 40 point barrier(in all reality, they could get to 52 themselves). However, through 3 seasons, we’ve learned Geoff Collins is not the kind of coach to throw in the towel when his team is out of a game. He’s going to coach for the full 60 minutes, and considering he’s got a lot of young weapons to work with offensively, I actually think the Jackets will get to 17 in this game. I don’t envision this game going way Over the total, but 52 is simply too low.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma State ML(+150) @ Boise State–Sat. 8 PM CT
Oklahoma State has had about as underwhelming of a start as any 2-0 team in the country. They squeaked out a 7 point win over Missouri State in Week 1 before beating Tulsa by 5 last week. However, some context is needed. QB Spencer Sanders was a late scratch in Week 1 and didn’t get a full week of practice in before the Tulsa game last week. Now that he has the chance to get in a rhythm heading into this Week 3 matchup, I think we’ll see a sharper Sanders in Boise. The Broncos present a feisty matchup towards OK State, especially considering the major question marks on the Cowboy O-Line. That being said, I think we see Sanders completely take over this game; he can do it with both his arm and his legs and has the ability to beat teams over the top with a solid deep ball. If Sanders can play to the level he did during his first two seasons in Stillwater, I believe the OK-State defense can take over from there. The Pokes defense is one of the most experienced in CFB and is solid in every facet; watch out for LB Malcolm Rogriguez to make some noise against a less talented Boise OL. While Boise responded with a convincing win over UTEP last week, I can’t get over how bad they looked in the second half of their opener at UCF. They took a 17 point lead into the half only to come out and go three-and-out 5 straight possessions. It’s important to remember that the Broncos are under new leadership; I’d give the major coaching edge to Mike Gundy over first-time HC Andy Avalos. Because of OKST’s poor start, I think we’re getting quite a bit of value on them here in a game they expect to win. I’ll take the road dog outright.
*CFB(1u): Arizona State -3.5(-110) @ BYU–Sat. 9:15 PM CT
BYU is coming off about as big of an emotional high as possible. They beat rival Utah last week for the first time since 2009, and the 26-17 win resulted in an epic field storm in the wee hours of the night. While they deserve a ton of credit for winning that game, I took away more negative from Utah than I did positive from BYU. Arizona State is a professionally run program led by HC Herm Edwards, and quite frankly, I think they’re gonna smoke BYU late on Saturday night. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels is now a junior with some big-game experience under his belt; so far this season, he has managed the offense very efficiently(73.2 completion %). While I think that trend will continue for him in Provo, this game will be won by the Arizona State defense. The Sun Devils defense racked up 5 sacks last week and are reliable at all 3 levels. I still have little trust in new BYU QB Jaren Hall, especially going into a game where his team is at a significant talent disadvantage. This just missed being a multi-unit play, but I have a strong feeling the Sun Devils blow out BYU.
*3 Team Teaser(0.8u): Nevada +5 @ Kansas State/Ohio State -18.5 vs Tulsa/Oklahoma State +9.5 @ Boise State(+155)–Sat. 1 PM CT
Kansas State was an undervalued team coming into the season, but the one thing that couldn’t happen for them has now happened: QB Skylar Thompson was injured. With the super senior now out indefinetly, the Wildcats now have to turn to Sophomore QB Will Howard, who lost his last 5 starts of the 2020 season. Nevada QB Carson Strong gets all the airtime, but the Wolfpack are a very complete team who have already knocked off a Power 5 team this season. I like Nevada to win, but I feel even better about them being teased to +5. Ohio State is coming off a crushing loss to Oregon that saw their defense fall apart often in the run game. I would imagine that there is a lot of built up frustration from last week that will spill over into this game in a good way. Tulsa’s offense is anything but explosive; in fact, I couldn’t think of a better “get right” spot for this Buckeyes defense. From there, I expect the talent on the Ohio State offense to win out and for this to be a blowout. Oklahoma State explanation is above.
*CFB(1.5u): Virginia Tech/West Virginia UNDER 50.5–Sat. 11 AM CT
West Virginia built a reputation for their high-flying offenses under Dana Holgerson, but that trend simply hasn’t continued under 3rd year HC Neal Brown. QB Jarrett Doege has a ton of experience at the college level, but his inability to hit on deep balls has really held back the Mountaineer offense. Even worse, their main RB Leddie Brown has averaged just 3.3 YPC to start the season. Essentially, WVU only excels in the short passing game before often having to punt. Virginia Tech has allowed just 24 points to start this season, including 10 to a potent North Carolina offense in Week 1; the Hokies’ ability to win in the trenches should be evident on Saturday. Unlike Dana Holgerson, though, Brown has gotten a solid output from his defense during his tenure in Morgantown. I don’t think too highly of the Virginia Tech offense; because they are so inexperienced at the WR position, they don’t fully trust QB Braxton Burmeister in the throw game yet, making them fairly one dimensional. Neither of their main RB’s is particularly explosive, and I like what I’ve seen from WVU’s defense in the Brown era. I expect this to be an ugly game, and I won’t even bother trying to pick a winner. Rather, I think the value is on the Under.
*CFB(1.5u): Oklahoma -22(-115) vs Nebraska–Saturday 11 AM CT
Many people are concerned with the Sooners after they squeaked out a mere 5 point win in Week 1 against Tulane. Some digging would tell you that they led that game 37-14 at the Half before completely falling apart in the second half. That’s no new problem in Norman, either; the Sooners are a notorious front-runner. That being said, they should be glad that scare happened in Week 1, and I think that wake-up call was all they needed to make sure that doesn’t happen again. I have absolutely zero doubt the Sooners will come out hot offensively, and with the reminder of the Tulane game fresh in their minds, I don’t think they’ll let up in the second half, either. Nebraska is totally outmatched in virtually every matchup I look at(including coaching), but the one catalyst they have is the feet of QB Adrian Martinez. The problem is: they are unwilling to commit to the QB run as their main offensive threat. Martinez has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 of the first 3 weeks, yet the offense still hasn’t lit up the scoreboard. Martinez can’t be trusted going toe-to-toe with Spencer Rattler, and Scott Frost’s arrogance about what he’d like his offense to look like is going to backfire in a big way. There is a ton of motivation for Oklahoma to win this game in a blowout, and I think they’ll do just that.
*CFB(1.5u): Auburn/Penn State UNDER 53(-110)–Sat. 6:30 PM CT
This primetime game will feature over 100,000 rowdy Penn State fans looking to rattle Bo Nix and the Auburn Tigers. In the past, Nix has struggled miserably on the road, and this SEC-like environment and Penn State defense figures to continue that trend. While Auburn has looked good to start the season, they’ve played two weak opponents(Akron and Alabama State). This is a huge step in class, and nothing makes me believe they’ll be up for it. However, I do think their defense can keep them in this game. Bryan Harsin inherited a very good situation defensively, and Auburn’s specialization at the LB and CB position figures to match up well with this Penn State offense. The Nittany Lions got a huge win in Week 1 at Wisconsin, but that had little to do with Sean Clifford and their offense. Clifford did make clutch throws on third down, but this Auburn defense is no slouch. Because the throw game doesn’t come easy to either of these two teams, I think both defenses have the edge. I expect a lot of usage for each of these teams’ RB units, which could lead to these teams trading a lot of punts. In any case, this total is too high. I’m rolling with the Under.
*CFB(1u): Louisiana Tech +12.5 vs SMU–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
*ML Sprinkle(0.5u): Louisiana Tech ML(+380) vs SMU
I wonder what this line would look like had Louisiana Tech not blown a 20 point lead against Mississippi State in Week 1. They led that game 34-14 in the 4th quarter before bottling up and losing by 1. While that’s an indictment on HC Skip Holtz, it does tell me something that they were even in that game to begin with. QB Austin Kendall has played much stiffer competition than this throughout his career and can be relied upon as this heavy of a ‘dog. However, I feel confident in this pick because I think SMU is heavily overvalued at this point in the season. They’ve played two weak-links through 2 games, and although they’ve looked good on both sides of the ball, Sonny Dykes-led teams rarely cover this big of spreads because he doesn’t put a great emphasis on defense. Not only that, but this is a potential look-ahead spot with SMU gearing up to play their hated rival TCU next week. This line is inflated because SMU did what they were supposed to do against inferior competition; I like LaTech to cover, and I think there’s a very real chance they win this game.
Friday card has the Top Level College Football Platinum Supreme totals Play and a Powerful MLB Card led by our Friday night Hot side and 2 big Totals. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play for Friday is on the Under 7.5 runs in the Philadelphia at NY. Mets game at 7:30 eastern. Philly has Wheeler going and he has allowed 3 run in 13 innings this year pitching at Citi against hid former team. He opposes Mets righty T. Walker who has allowed 2 runs in 9 innings here against the Phillies here this year. The Mets have stayed under 11 of 14 on Fridays, 8 of 11 as a dog and 8 of 9 vs a pitcher with a 1.15 or less Whip. The Phillies are 5 of 7 under vs teams under .500 and 5 of the last 6 here have played under the total. Look for this one to stay under. On Friday The Friday night Hot Side with a 16-0 system headlines the MLB Card with 2 big Power totals. In College we have our Top level Platinum Supreme total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we get the weekend started fast. For the MLB Comp play. Play the Mets and Phillies Under the total. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
When betting the tight NFL market, there’s nothing you can do to help yourself more than to make your own power rankings. It’s not too late! Numbers, however subjective, are a great starting point for comparison to what oddsmakers put out there and how the market reacts. My most successful NFL betting seasons are in large part to the fact that I sit down every week and build an Excel sheet (yes it’s rudimentary- but go with what you know). Before I get into my NFL power rankings, in case anyone wants to know, this is my basic process…
I start my season by using the consensus NFL future win totals. VegasInsider.com had a nice list I used this year, (2021 NFL Win Totals Odds | Team Over Under Wins Future Odds (vegasinsider.com)). From there, a basic approach would be to add points all the way down the list of projected wins. For example, KC was projected 12.5 wins and HOU 4 wins, therefore HOU would have an -8.5 spread against HOU on a neutral field. If KC were at home, they would be an 11.5 favorite. Personally, I adjust those numbers to what I think the lines should be but the lines that are up are great for comparison as well.
The most influential part of my handicap is the injury report, (NFL Injury Report – Football Player Injuries – CBSSports.com). How you weigh these position players makes a difference. Outside of the QB, injuries to the OL and DL are the most significant. That’s where I think I’m different from the general NFL market. By position I tend to grade as follows QB/OL=1, DL/ LB=0.75, WR/DB=0.25, with exceptions, of course, based on talent.
After the injury report, I like to look at team statistics and what I use the most is Pro Football Reference, (2021 NFL Standings & Team Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com). I’ll use these notes for a bigger picture of what’s going on with a team and to see how a team matches up with an opponent. Then, I’ll consider the opening lines and narratives around the teams.
That being said, I am writing this later than I would like. These are my numbers prior to the Thursday game. This chart is hard to read as the conversion from Excel is not great but, if I would have gone with my Week 2 numbers on the Thursday game I would have done well last night. I had NYG -6 behind the best team and WAS -6.5. Factor in the 3 points for homefield and I had WAS -2.5 instead of the WAS -3.5 closing number. Making the right plays are another conversation.
I wanted to put these out earlier in the week but, life… I will adjust these numbers Saturday once finalized injury reports are out. Again, Excel conversion looks like shit but a look into how I build my rankings… and what I have. Use them to fade or follow but wanted to put something out there because I like to look at power rankings myself. If any interest in my power rankings throughout the year let me know on Twitter @kooziekris or @theoddsbreakers.
*3 Star Free Pick* The Louisville Cardinals have a weak defense. In the past Louisville was able to win games with their elite skill position talent on offense. Now, it is Cunningham by himself and it is a real struggle. With no Atwell or Hawkins around him, I find it hard to believe Cunningham will do very well here against a UCF defense that is especially strong on the defensive line.
UCF had ugly defensive numbers last year, but remember this team had a bunch of opt outs and COVID issues through the year last year. The Knights are much better defensively this year.
The perception likely isn’t as high on UCF as it should be. Their season opening tight win over Boise State was misleading. UCF dominated the box score in that contest.
On offense, Dillon Gabriel and UCF are going to be tremendous in their uptempo system all year. With this line sitting at just less than a touchdown, I see value on the Knights.
Take UCF.
(My “Kyle Hunter Totally Totals Package is now available at The Oddsbreakers! 8-0 SWEEP on my CFB premium selections last Saturday. Join in!)
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