Tonight we have a pretty high team total for the Reds sitting at 5.5 hosting Jon Lester and the Cards. Cincy’s bats seemed to have went cold with a shocking series loss in Miami. But looking at the Reds at home is a different story. They’ve only gone UN their 5.5 total 3 times in their L12 at home. Ballparkpal.com also has the Great American ball park as the most hitter friendly ball park tonight with winds blowing to LF.
Cardinals’ pitcher Lester looked good in his last start against the Tigers, but we all know he can get blown up real quick. Both teams are live in the Wild Card so this one could be a tight one. The markets are saying otherwise with 83% of the $ on the OV 9. Since Castillo is pitching and the STL bats have been nonexistent at times, I’m thinking the Reds will be providing the runs here and taking OVER the high TT of 5.5 at plus money.
Another positive week in the books. 14-10-1 in MLB up 6.7 Units. Didn’t have the big weekend we were hoping for, but still came out on the positive side for the 5th straight week. Interested in all my picks? Reach out on Twitter @thegreatknoche
For today’s Free Play Monday I am looking directly at riding on the broad right shoulder of Zach Wheeler. Wheeler has struggled in August with one CG Shutout and 4 not so great starts. I think Joe Girardi has been riding his key starters in Wheeler and Nola way too much and they appear like they are starting to run out of gas a little. You’d ride those two guys as well if you had the Phillies bullpen and their league leading 27 Blown Saves at your disposal. Overall he’s 10-9 with a 2.90 ERA, a 10.83 K/9 and a 1.83 BB/9. Great ratios. The record is diminished due to the 3.46 RS/9 Wheeler has gotten in 2021. Last two times out against the Nationals, Wheeler pitched well. He allowed 2 ER total through the first 5 innings of both starts running into trouble in the 7th inning of both games. Razzball Streamonator has this start with +$15.0 and looks to be another solid play for Zack.
He is opposed by Josiah Grey who will be making his 7th major league start. Grey has three quality offerings and he currently has a 3.75 ERA, but is due for some negative regression. Opponents have a .217 BABIP against him and he has 100% LOB rate. Both way out of line as evidenced by his 6.33 FIP and 4.61 xFIP. He has also shown the long-ball can be had against him as he has allowed 12 HR in 36 IP. Both these offenses are middle of the road in most categories vs RHP so I am leaning to the early success Wheeler has had and hoping the Phillies can at least get him a little run support early on.
Hello and happy Monday! We hit our 2 free plays yesterday in baseball, making us 13-1 this past week and 35-14 overall the last month– LET’S GO! As I announced on Twitter, I will only be giving out ONE free play per day for the remainder of the MLB season. If you want more picks, sign up for my premium plays here or DM me on Twitter!
Red Sox/Rays over 9 (+103, BetOnline.ag), 1.5 units: The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the hottest teams in baseball and it’s their turn to host their AL East Rival on Monday; I think this one will offer plenty of offense. Out of the 12 games that Boston and Tampa have opposed each other this season, 10 of those contests have resulted in 9 runs or more and 9/12 of those contests have resulted in 10 runs or more. And what makes this bet even better– the Red Sox and Rays have been two of the best offenses in MLB over the last 2 weeks. Here’s how they rank among 30 teams in major categories:
wOBA: TB- 2nd, BOS- 4th
SLG %: TB- 2nd, BOS- 4th
AVG: TB- 4th, BOS- 12th
OBP: TB- 6th, BOS- 8th
Homeruns: TB- 8th, BOS- 2nd
Runs: TB- 1st, BOS- 8th
That’s top 5 in many categories and top 10 in all but one category between these two big-hitting lineups. Nick Pivetta (BOS RHP, 4.57 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 130 innings) and Luis Patino (TB RHP, 4.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP over 51.2 innings) take the mound today and while they’re formidable throwers, they’re not elite. It’ll be perfectly warm at Tropicana Field and this series means a ton in the AL East, especially for a Boston team that’s dropped a full 8 games under Tampa for 1st place. One has to believe their bats will be primed and ready to explode. The over is 10-4-1 in Rays last 15 games as a favorite and 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. I’m on over 9 for plus money!
These are two of the top teams in the league, so you might be wondering why I’d be willing to lay a run-and-a-half with the road team. Well, the Brewers obviously have a significant advantage on the mound, but it’s their offense that could be the difference tonight. This Brewers lineup excels at hitting on the road; since July 1st, the Brewers are hitting .278(best in baseball) with 41 HR’s away from Miller Park. They’ll get a manageable matchup tonight facing Johnny Cueto(1.30 WHIP), and the hitting conditions in the Bay Area are much more hitter-friendly than the Brewers are accustomed to in the Midwest. Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is easily my favorite pitcher to bet on; to go along with a 2.30 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season, his 1.64 FIP indicates that he’s actually pitched better than his numbers indicate. The Giants handle righties well(especially at home), but I think they’ll be fatigued tonight coming off a 9 game road trip with zero days rest heading into tonight’s game. Burnes is allowing just 0.3 HR/9 this season, and quite frankly, he has the ability to overmatch much of this Giants order. The Brewers back-end of the bullpen is steady and can be trusted to hold a lead. This is a situational play, but the success that Burnes and this Brewers lineup(on the road) has had is too hard to ignore.
*MLB(1u): Nationals F5 TT UNDER 1.5(-110) vs Phillies–6:05 PM CT
The Nationals will face one of the best SP’s in the league tonight in Phillies SP Zack Wheeler. Despite struggling over his last few starts, Wheeler still carries a 2.90 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the season in addition to an exceptional 5.67 K/BB rate. Wheeler has better numbers at home, but it’s worth noting that Nationals Park is considerably easier to pitch in than Citizens Bank Park. While the Nationals have had success against Wheeler this season, many of the guys who did that damage were shipped off at the deadline. Now, the Nationals lineup contains Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and a bunch of guys who are probably better suited for AAA. Wheeler has been steady virtually all season long, and considering the lack of talent he’ll face tonight, I’m willing to bet he gets back on track with a dominant outing.
The Round 1 U.S. Open Head to head knockout is on Camila Giorgi at 11:05 Am Eastern. Giorgi has won 6 of her last 7 including a tournament win at the Canadian Masters. he lost in the first Round prepping for this tournament and she should be fresh here. Simona Halep has lost 4 of her last 5 the last of which was a w.o.. She beat Giorgi 6 years ago in Miami but Giorgi is far more polished now and here big serve and sweeping ground strokes will make this a very difficult first round match for Halep. No surprise at all to see Giorgi who has the better overall recent form to advance. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Taking a small flier on the Timbers to get a 1H lead on the Sounders tonight. Many reasons not to like the Timbers here as they just aren’t a good team. POR has not been impressive on the road this season, but they’ve shown some life in their L2 with a draw and a victory. As bad as they’ve been, they’re still alive for the last playoff spot in the West. Their recent success was against the two teams above them in the West conference, RSL and SJ.
SEA is slumping a little in their L2, with a draw and a loss. What is different about this game is SEA had 6 starters in the MLS vs Liga MX All-stars game last week. I’m looking for the Sounders to come out a little flat. I like the recent momentum the Timbers have had on the road. This is the oldest rivalry in pro US soccer, and the Timbers should come out aggressive after getting embarrassed in Portland two weeks ago.
The Sounders are the better team so that keeps me off of the outright upset. But, I believe there is decent value on POR 1H ML +410. The 1H +1/2 is juiced heavier at -131 than SEA’s -1/2 at +111 which tells me books are leaning towards the same.
Sunday card has the NFLX Total of the Year Headlining along with a 5* CFL Power System Play, MLB and Soccer. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on Tampa Bay on the Run at 1:05 eastern. Tampa has won 11 of 12 here , 38 of 51 in game 3 of a series and 7 of 8 as a road favorite.. The Orioles have lost 50 of 60 vs teams that are .600 or better and have dropped 6 of 7 in game 3 of a series. Baltimore has lost 8 straight starts with Watkins on the hill all of which were by more than a Run. The Rays fit a 60-21 road favorite system as well. Look for the Rays to take another. On Sunday a Powerful Card is up with our Highest rated triple perfect NFLX Total of the year, Early soccer, a 5* CFL System play and our Exclusive MLB System Plays. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on as we end the week big. For the MLB Comp Play. Go with Tampa on the run line. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We went 0-1 last night so we look to bounce right back today and we have 3 Premium plays for clients. I am giving away 2 of them below here at The Odds Breakers! The Top Play today is an barking dog and we have been hitting 16-5 (76%) in our last 21 underdog plays!! Grab it HERE!
Our record of late is 12-2 (86%) in our last 14 plays, 31-12 (72%) in our last 43 plays and 46-24 (66%) in our last 70 plays.
Get a DISCOUNTED monthly all access passHERE at The Odds Breakers or pick from 11 different subscriptions at the SPORTS PICK HUB.
The Milwaukee Brewers and the Minnesota Twins continue their 3 game set today at Target Field. Righty Adrian Houser will take the mound for the Brewcrew. He is 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 107.1 innings pitched on the year. On the road this season, Hauser has pitched to a 3.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 4.22 xFIP and owns a 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, a very low .190 BABIP and a very high 5.48 xFIP (more than 3 runs higher than his ERA). Left-hander Charlie Barnes will get the nod for the Twins. He is 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.63 WHIP across 23.1 innings pitched this season. In what is a very small sample size, Barnes has posted a low .241 and a high 5.30 xFIP in 9.2 innings at home this season. In the past week, both of these teams rank in the top 10 in OPS, wOBA and wRC+. Minnesota has hit the 5th most homeruns (64) and own a 7th best ISO (.195) versus right-handed pitching at home this season while Milwaukee has been excellent on the road this season hitting to a 2nd best .322 wOBA and scoring the 5th most runs (317). I expect both starters to regress closer to the mean today while the offenses look to take advantage of the matchup. Take Over 10 runs
The Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians play game 2 of their 4-game set today at Progressive Field. Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi will get the start for the Sox. He is 10-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 145 innings pitched this season. On the road, Eovaldi owns a 5.02 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a 3.92 xFIP this season. The Indians will counter with rookie Cal Quantrill. The right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 109.2 innings on the year. Since the break, Quantrill has posted a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP amd 3.11 FIP and owns a 2.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this season. Both of these teams come into this game owning a top 5 wOBA in the past 7 days and hit a combined 27 homeruns during that stretch. Additionally, the offenses on both squads have been hitting .264 each in the past 30 days, good enough for 4th in the league in the past month. Boston’s bullpen comes in owning the worst WHIP (1.61), 4th worst opponent batting average (.273) and 3rd worst ERA (5.80) in the past month. Cleveland has a better pen but it hasn’t been dazzling as they have pitched to a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 4.40 xFIP over that same stretch. On paper this looks to be a great pitching matchup but I see these thriving bats to continue to produce with the Indians coming out on top in the later innings. Take Over 9 runs
