- Dallas out-gained Tampa Bay 451 to 431 and lost 31-29, they also benefitted from a 1-4 turnover ratio. Bad coaching and Brady/Gronk got em.
- The Bills out-gained the Steelers 371 to 252 yet lost 23-16. A 1-0 turnover ratio hurt and that Steeler D was fierce.
- Minnesota out-gained Cincinnati 403 to 366 yet lost in overtime 27-24. 1-0 turnover ratio hurt in OT
- Cleveland out-gained Kansas City 457-397 yet lost 33-29. A 2-0 turnover ratio killed them in the second half. They blew this game.
- The Patriots out-gained the Dolphins 393 to 259 yet lost 17-16. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt them. They also benefited from a bad roughing the passer call.
NFL Week 1 Misleading Final Scores
September 16th NFL Pick
I stayed hot last night with a 2-0, +2.95u performance in the MLB slate. That included a 1.5u premium winner, which boosted my premium record to 13-5, +15.3u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NFL(1u): Giants/Washington Football Team 1H UNDER 20(-110)–7:20 PM CT
While 20 is a very low 1H total, it’s important to realize that it is set that low for a reason. Washington has one of the top defenses in the NFL, as evidenced last week when they held a potentially prolific Chargers offense to just 20 points. This week’s matchup sets up to be much easier; the Giants looked totally inept in Denver last Sunday, and it appears there is little to no continuity between QB Daniel Jones and his WR’s. It also helps that the Giants ran their offense at one of the slowest paces in the NFL last season. That being said, the Giants defense is consistently undervalued by the oddsmakers, and they should be able to keep the WFT offense at bay. After QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went down with an injury last week, Ron Rivera will turn towards backup Taylor Heinicke to run his offense tonight. Heinicke can be an effective QB at this level(as evidenced by his playoff performance against Tampa Bay last year), but you can’t expect him to be in peak form this early in the season. With only 3 days to prepare for this game, I believe Washington will keep the ball on the ground and play things very close to the chest; because the Giants don’t present much of a threat towards their defense, that sort of gameplan should be enough to earn them a win. I don’t want to play the FG total in case we see one team have to turn heavily towards the pass, but early in this game, I expect points to be at a premium.
Laying the Points with FarleyBets – NFL Week 2 ATS Breakdown
Every Thursday, Chris (@farleybets) and Steve (@snormsnorm) review every NFL game from an ATS perspective! Last week Chris’ bets earned +10 units and Steve’s bets earned +11 units! What a start! Follow us on Twitter and–
Check out our full Week 2 betting analysis, exclusively on YouTube this week!
(PS- Laying the Points will look and sound different starting next week – we’re DONE with these technical issues! Thank you for bearing with us through these unproduced episodes!)
Podcast 62 – 21 – With Marco D’Angelo – NFL Week 2 and College Football Week 3 Info and Plays – Sharp Line Movements – UFC – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from Wagertalk.com is back to break down some Saturday and Sunday pigskin! First, Kiev discusses the format of our show and get’s into what over reaction week means as well as the importance of weather. Second, Kiev talks about a big waiver move made in fantasy football. Next, Marco comes on to discuss more how over reactions pertain to the betting market, some strategies to attack that market, as well as some of the lines that fit the bill. Then, the guys get into some NFL football games with a lot of agreement on their free plays. Next, Marco and Kiev get into College Football week 3 with some agreement and a little disagreement in some of their plays. After that, Kiev gives out his REFUSE TO LOSE teaser that went 11-6 last year in the NFL. Then, we talk about some sharp action in both the professional and college scene. Finally, Kiev gives out a FREE UFC PLAY for your weekend pleasure!
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College Football Week 2 Misleading Final Scores
- Coastal Carolina only outgained Kansas 460 to 412 yet won 49-22. They actually were the ones with the garbage yards in the 4th.
- Western Kentucky out-gained Army 477 to 416 yet lost 38-35. Equal turnovers and this game got close.
- Tulsa out-gained Oklahoma State 347 t0 313 yet lost 28-23. They also won the turnover battle 2-0 so explain that! Bad efficiency.
- Miami Ohio Out-gained Minnesota 341 to 287 yet lost 31-26. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt.
- Ohio State out-gained Oregon 612 to 505 yet lost 35-28. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad efficiency hurt them. 6/15 on 3rd downs was a big stat and they also had twice as many penalties as the Ducks.
- Northern Illinois out-gained Wyoming 477 to 395 yet lost 50-43. A 3-1 turnover ratio at home hurt.
- Syracuse out-gained Rutgers 258 – 195 yet lost 17-7. A 3-0 turnover ratio did them in.
- Iowa State out-gained Iowa 339 to 173, a 4-0 turnover ratio killed them but that Iowa D is what really stood out to me. If this was played again I make Iowa a 3 point favorite on a neutral.
- Memphis and Arkansas State had equal yards at 680 yet Memphis had 2 turnovers and still won the game on the road 55-50.
- NC State out-gained Mississippi State 335 to 316 yet lost 24-10. 3-0 turnover ratios will do that.
- FIU out-gained Texas State 400 to 336 yet lost 23-17. A nasty 3-0 turnover ratio smoked em.
- Bad news Notre Dame, Florida State just lost and was out-gained by Jacksonville State. Can’t wait to hear the aftermath on that one.
- I think that there will be value on Washington going forward. Just wanted to say that.
- Colorado State out-gained Vanderbilt 445 to 342 yet lost 24-21. Even turnovers and bad defense in the 3rd quarter.
- USC out-gained Stanford 408 to 375 but lots of that was garbage comeback yards so this score was right.
Rob Vinciletti: Thursday MLB Totals Play +NYG vs Washington Info
The Thursday night NFL Total system of the Month headlines in the NFL. In College Football we have Our Power System Play of the Week and a September Specific MLB Totals System. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on the Over 10 runs in the NYY at Baltimore game at 7:05 eastern. Look for a higher scoring game here tonight in the series finale. Baltimore has gone over the last 3 vs a lefty and 25 of 34 at home vs a winning team as well as 5 of 6 in game 3 of a series. NY has gone over he last 4 on Thursdays and 5 of 6 vs a right. Ellis for the Orioles went 5 inning sand allowed just 1 hit vs NYY 2 weeks ago in 5 innings. Now that they have seen him they should do much better against him. Look for the Orioles to get a few runs off Montgomery and push this game over the total. In the NFL we have our NFL Thursday night Football Total of the Month backed with a huge Thursday specific system. There is the College Football Play of the Week and another Powerful MLB Play with a September Specific System. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now and cash out. For the NLB Comp Play. Play NY and Baltimore over the total. Rob V- GC Sports
Free MLB Premium Pick with Analysis for Wednesday, September 15th
We passed on yesterday’s card but look to get back to executing the edge today and increase our recent track record, which is 30-15 (67%) L45 plays overall!! I have 2 Premium Picks today and am giving one of them below and, so far, I have released 4 CFB plays (9-2 on the year) and 2 NFL plays (1-2) to clients for this week. JOIN NOW and get all of our Premium Picks, daily packages and subscriptions at the SPORTS PICK HUB!!
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The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners finish up their 3- set today at T-Mobile Park. Rookie right-hander Tanner Houck will get the nod for the BoSox. He is 0-4 with a 3-54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 53.1 innings pitched this season. Since the break, Houck has pitched excellent owning a 3.35 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, an on par .302 BABIP, 3.09 FIP and 3.76 xFIP in 43 innings. Lefty Marco Gonzales will take the mound for the M’s. He posts a 8-5 record with a 4.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 118.1 innings this year. Gonazales has posted an outstanding 2.34 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in the second half of the season, however, it doesn’t look like that will last much longer as he owns a very low .219 BABIP and very high 5.23 xFIP in the past 61.2 innings pitched. Look for Gonzales to regress back to the mean and that should start today against one of the top offenses in the league. The Red Sox rank in the top 5in the majors in hits (124), batting average (.271), OPS (.811) and wOBA (.344) in the past 2 weeks while Seattle ranks in the bottom 3rd of the league in those same stats in the same 14 day timeframe. Additionally, Boston has scored the 2nd most runs this season versus left-handed pitching while the Mariners rank dead last in hits (324), batting average (.215) and wOBA (.292) against righties at home this season. I have Houck earning his first win of the season while the Red Sox bats assist in Gonzales’ negative regression. Take the Red Sox -121
Rob V: Hump Day MLB Comp Play
Hump Day Card has a Late night Power System Ply in the SD at SF Game, a Champions League Soccer Total and a Platinum Supreme MLS Soccer Play. MLB Totals Play below.
The Hump Day Comp Play is on the Under in the Colorado at Atlanta game at 7:20 eastern. Look for a tight game here as 4 of the last 5 here have stayed under. The Braves have Ynoa on the mound and have played under in 6 of his last 8 starts. Colorado Counters with Sentazela who has allowed 3 or less runs in 6 straight starts with 6 of his last 7 starts staying under the total. The Rockies are 7 of 8 under on the road vs a winning team. The Braves are 7 of 8 under vs N.L. West teams , 6 of 7 in game twos. Look for this one to stay under. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
September 15th MLB Pick
In addition to this free play, I have one premium play in the MLB today. Since beginning my premium plays with The OddsBreakers on August 30th, those plays have gone 12-5 and netted me +13.8u. If you’re interested in becoming a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 ML(+145) @ Mets–6:10 PM CT
Put the stats aside for a second. This matchup will feature a rookie SP who has zero experience in playoff atmospheres; he’ll pitch opposite a 3x World Series champion SP who has excelled pitching in crucial moments late in the season. When that veteran is catching this much value as an underdog, you can bet I’m going to try to find a way to back him and his team. That guy is Jon Lester, and while he’s had a rough season overall, he seems to have turned a corner just in time to push his team into the postseason. In his last 4 starts, Lester has allowed just 4 runs in 23.2 IP; 3 of those 4 starts came against the Brewers or Reds. I don’t know what to tell you if you’re still trying to trust this Mets offense; they are atrocious. While Mets SP Tylor Megill has been reliable over his 15 starts as a rookie(4.06 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), he has had some trouble giving up the home run ball(1.7 HR/9 this season). The Cardinals have come out of nowhere over the last month and find themselves in prime position for a Wild Card spot; they are not a team I want to bet against right now. With everything I laid out, the Cardinals are simply getting too much value for me to pass up. I’ll play them in the F5 because I want nothing to do with either of these bullpens.
September 15th Premium MLB Pick
*MLB(1.5u): Red Sox TT OVER 4.5(+100) @ Mariners–3:10 PM CT
These teams find themselves in a battle for an AL Wild Card spot, with Boston currently 3 games ahead of the Mariners. These teams have split the first two games of this 3 game set, but luckily for Boston, I think they’ll have an advantageous matchup at the plate today. Seattle SP Marco Gonzales has turned a corner as of late, but overall this season has pitched below expectations. It’s important to note that he has faced just 1 opponent currently in the playoff race in his last 12 starts. Basically, he has drawn the easiest of matchups for about 2.5 months; while that helps his overall stats, it also leaves him unprepared entering this start against a dangerous Red Sox lineup. Even with Gonzales’s recent success, his FIP is still 1.35 runs higher than his ERA due to the fact that he has gotten lucky in leaving 82% of baserunners stranded. The Red Sox order is filled with righties who have had past success against Gonzales, and considering they’ve scored 12 runs through the first 2 games in this series, I’m willing to trust them in this spot tonight. While the Seattle bullpen has performed well this season, I do expect them to regress over the last few weeks of the season. Many of these guys have been asked to pitch in extended roles for about 2 months now, and I simply don’t think that’s sustainable. At even-money, I’m all over the Red Sox TT as my best bet tonight.
