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NFL – Full Season Preview Part 4 – NFC South/West

By
Shawn Knoche
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We have now reached the final full weekend of Pre-Season which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 5 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures there.  I have gone through the entire schedule, game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top 5 plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

NFC South – The Ageless Wonder, GOAT, luckiest man alive, whatever you want to call Tom Brady it doesn’t matter. Bottom line is he wins. He’s back for his 22nd season, and is defending champ once again after getting his 7th Super Bowl win with the Bucs. After getting in the playoffs as a wild card the Bucs have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL and should be the class of this division as they lose almost no one. In New Orleans Drew Brees is now retired. Is Jameis Winston the answer? We will find out soon. They still have Alvin Kamara on offense, but the receiver core is a huge question mark. Gone from defense are the top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, linebacker Kwon Alexander and one of the better cover corners Janoris Jenkins. I don’t see this team being as strong as last year unless Winston learned to stop throwing interceptions during his year on the bench. The Falcons made the decision to not draft a QB with the 4th pick which means this is still Matt Ryan’s team. Arthur Smith who helped turn around Ryan Tannenhill comes in as Head Coach to try and revamp the offense. The thing is The Falcons weren’t awful last year. -18 point differential on a 4-12 team makes you wonder about how the season could have gone. The defense has been the major issue the last few seasons and if they improve this team could be more of a threat than most are predicting including me. The Panthers will turn to former top pick Sam Darnold. I love Matt Rhule as a coach and hope he can get things figured out. Getting CMC back should improve their offense which struggled mightily last season. Their defense is young and improving, but I still think needs one more year of solid draft pieces. The NFC South gets the NFC East and AFC East as common opponents.

Tampa Bay 11-6

New Orleans 8-9

Atlanta 7-10

Carolina 6-11

NFC West – To be honest, I had to go back through my game by game projections once I got done with the NFC West. It was the last division I completed and something just wasn’t adding up. The reason it wasn’t adding up is I ended up with all four teams in this division winning 10 games.  Toughest division in football no question. They are going to beat up on each other and then beat up everyone else in the NFL. I am drinking the kool-aid when it comes to the Los Angeles Rams. It’s not just because of the trade for Matt Stafford who with the weapons on the outside is going to carve up opposing defenses. It’s because they have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey back. They’ll have to replace a few pieces around them and a DC, but with those two as anchors they should be formidable once again. The 49ers should bounce back from their 6-10 campaign last year. The injury bug got them bad as they led the NFL with 32 IR transactions. The question on offense will be whether they turn the keys to the car over to Trey Lance or stick with Jimmy G. Garoppolo has been successful when healthy going 24-9 as a starter in SF. The defense will have a new coordinator, but also has 4 1st round picks on the line. The back end is also solid and if they stay healthy this unit should be a top 5 performer in the league. Seattle won this division in 2020 and should compete again. Russell Wilson had another great season, but ended up struggling down the stretch. His protection was rough last year and they get a big upgrade at guard in Gabe Jackson from the Raiders. The defense was average last year and their pass rush is not good. Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright are not getting any younger. The trade for Jamaal Adams should greatly improve the secondary as they look to recreate a new Legion of Boom. The Cardinals were 8-8 with a highly efficient offense. Kyler Murray makes the offense go and if he takes another step forward like I expect they will put up some serious points this year. Getting Green at WR gives Murray a great 1-2 punch with Hopkins good as any other team in the league. On defense their secondary has taken a step back, but if JJ Watt stays healthy even getting a year older, he can still disrupt on the line. The NFC West gets the NFC North and AFC South as common opponents

Los Angeles 13-4

San Francisco 12-5

Seattle 10-7

Arizona 10-7

Free Picks: Los Angeles Rams over 9.5 -127 This is my number 1 team total win play. Truth be told I got this line in early August and you likely won’t find it now. Most books are up to 10.5 with plus money on the over. I’d still play it confidently, but not quite as good as where it was a month ago.

 

 

MLB Play 8/28- TOR @ DET

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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This one seems like a no brainer with Toronto’s Manoah facing Urena in what looks like it will be a bullpen game for Detroit. We all know Manoah has been great and Urena is fresh off the 10-day IL. With only 61% of the money on TOR full game I wonder if I’m missing something.

Toronto’s roster looks intact, maybe there’s questions about Toronto’s motivation as they are almost out of the postseason picture. Regardless, the starting pitching matchup is lopsided here. With Manoah as one of the best pitchers this young team has, I have to believe the team will rally around him. Because it’s a look at the starters, I’ll keep it to the F5.

TOR F5 -1/2 (-140) 1.4u

Saratoga Preview & Picks – (GI) Travers Stakes Preview & Picks

By
Patrick Gates
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The Travers is carded as Race 12 on Saturday’s 13-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 11:35 p.m. EDT.

Other notable races on Saturday at Saratoga:

  • Race 4: G2 Ballston Spa Stakes (1:17 PM ET)
  • Race 7: G1 Ketel One Ballerina Handicap (3:03 PM ET)
  • Race 8: G1 Forego Stakes (3:37 PM ET)
  • Race 9: G1 H. Allen Jerkins Memorial Stakes (4:12 PM ET)
  • Race 10: G1 Personal Ensign Stakes (4:47 PM ET)
  • Race 11: G1 Sword Dancer (5:25 PM ET)

 

Travers Stakes

Race Information:

  • Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 12
  • Post Time: 6:12 PM ET
  • Length: 1 1/4 Miles
  • Purse: $1,250,000
  • Division: Colts | 3 Years Old
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers

 

Field:

  1. Midnight Bourbon (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 9-2
  2. Essential Quality (Luis Saez), 4-5
  3. Keepmeinmind (Joel Rosario), 6-1
  4. Dynamic One (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 6-1
  5. Miles D (Flavien Prat), 12-1
  6. Masqueparade (Miguel Mena), 8-1
  7. King Fury (Jose Ortiz), 15-1

 

Horse Preview:

MIDNIGHT BOURBON comes into the Travers off a DNF in the G1 Haskell Stakes after losing Paco Lopez. Prior to that, he took second in the G1 Preakness Stakes. He hasn’t won is his last five starts, with his last win coming back in January of this year in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. This will also be his first start at Saratoga in his career.

ESSENTIAL QUALITY is the morning line favorite at 4-5 and deservedly so. In his eight career starts, he has only lost one race. Even in the race he lost, the G1 Kentucky Derby, he still ran fourth. He was held out the Preakness and ran again in the G1 Belmont where he won. In his last out he won the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga running a 107 Equibase speed figure.

KEEPMEINMIND finished second to ESSENTIAL QUALITY in the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes in his last start. He’s also faced ESSENTIAL QUALITY two times prior, in the G1 Preakness, and G1 Kentucky Derby, where he finished behind him in both races. He ran his best two speed figures in his last two races but will still need a better performance if he wants to take down the favorite. His last win was back in 2020 when he won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

DYNAMIC ONE has also seen ESSENTIAL QUALITY before when he finished dead last in the G1 Kentucky Derby. He was held out two months then ran again last month in the Curlin Stakes where he won. He has one of the best jockey and trainer combos with Irad Ortiz Jr and Todd Pletcher so we’ll see if he can capture his first graded stakes win here.

MILES D has the least experience out of any horse in this race with only three starts to his name. In his last out he ran second to DYNAMIC ONE in the Curlin Stakes. He was bumped slightly in that race, and still managed to run second. In his two starts prior he finished first and fourth in MSW contests.

MASQUEPARADE enters the G1 Travers Stakes off a third place finish in the G2 Jim Dandy finishing behind ESSENTIAL QUALITY (1) and KEEPMEINMIND (2). He won his three starts prior to that race, most notably the G3 Ohio Derby. He’s shown some speed in his last three starts so we’ll see he can continue to improve here.

KING FURY returns to dirt after finishing tenth in the G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes his last out. Prior to that, he ran second to MASQUEPARADE in the G3 Ohio Derby. His last win was three starts ago when he captured the G3 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes at Keeneland back in April of 2021. He’s ran in three G1 Stakes in his career with a best finish of seventh in TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

 

Race Preview:

Front Runner: Midnight Bourbon

Stalk/ Off the Pace: Essential Quality, Miles D, Masqueparade

Closer: Keepmeinmind, Dynamic One, King Fury

 

There’s tons of class in the ‘Midsummer Derby’ but one horse really shines, which is the favorite, Essential Quality. He beat fellow entrants Keepmeinmind and Masqueparade in his last out. Keepmeinmind challenged him down the stretch but was outmatched. Midnight Bourbon hasn’t been his best as of late but, will get his chance here to prove he’s one of the top three year old’s.

 

Picks:

WIN/ PLACE/ SHOW: 2 ESSENTIAL QUALITY

EXACTA BOX: 2,3,4

 

MLB, CFB, and UFC Best Bets – August 28, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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Sep 22, 2018; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Nebraska head coach Scott Frost on the sidelines against Michigan at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirthmon F. Dozier/Detroit Free Press via USA TODAY Sports

 

“The Streak” continues! The Yankees won Friday and now we’re 11-0 this week in MLB free picks (hopefully you’ve been following me here and on Twitter)! Eventually it will end, of course, but you have to savor this while it lasts. Here are my best free plays for Saturday’s jam-packed slate of baseball, football, and UFC!

I will have Premium Picks all weekend in NFL, MLB, and UFC.
Click the hyperlink to sign up for my favorite plays every day!

Blue Jays -1.5 (-120), 2 units: One of the best offenses in baseball has been ice cold as of late but positive regression is peeking around the corner. I think this might be an ideal spot for the struggling Jays. Alek Manoah (3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 78.1% LOB rate, 3.55 xERA over 68 innings) will take the mound for Toronto and he’s been one of my favorite young starters to play on. Manoah has had a few clunkers, including a 7 run allowance against the Nationals recently, but that game and a few others have inflated his numbers in a way that’s misleading. In 9 of his 13 starts, Manoah has allowed 2 runs or less. Toronto leads MLB in slugging % and their top 5 in a slew of other offensive categories, yet they’re in the bottom 3rd the past 2 weeks. I expect that to change today when they line up against Jose Urena (6.19 ERA, 5.96 xERA, 1.65 WHIP over 80 innings). Urena has been consistently bad all year, permitting way too many runs and way too often. The Jays are sinking in the AL East rankings and if they have a shot at the postseason, they have to turn it around now. The Blue Jays are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. a team with a losing record and they’re in a great spot for positive regression Saturday– I’m on Toronto by margin.

Illinois +7 (-110), 1.5 units: The Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the opening game of the college football season and I’m on the home dog. The last time these two teams clashed, Illinois shredded Nebraska by a score of 41-23 in late November, slashing them for 285 yards on the ground and forcing 5 turnovers in a lopsided contest in Lincoln. Now Scott Frost, who’s consistently disappointed in his short tenure with the Cornhuskers, marches into Champaign Illinois on the proverbial “hot seat.” To put it bluntly, I just don’t trust Frost. Although the visitors are the more talented team here (and they were last year too), Frost has yet to demonstrate true command and influence over his players. Nebraska has been mistake-prone, undisciplined, and a turnover-machine throughout his stint as head coach. Illinois has plenty of weaknesses to expose, but if they can avoid turnovers and maintain a solid rushing attack, it’ll be tough for the Cornhuskers to gain margin today. Nebraska is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Take the dog– there’s little to no value in an underwhelming favorite on the road.

Giga Chikadze (EVEN), 1.5 units: We’re going to buck the trend and go against Edson Barboza in what should be an entertaining striking-battle between these two featherweights. Barboza certainly has more experience and those kicks are forever lethal, but Chikadze has displayed a patience and technical prowess that fighters like Barboza really struggle with. Edson likes to push the pace and force his opponents into bad defense, but we don’t see Chikadze being fooled. The Georgian mixed martial artist has won 8 bouts in a row and he’s on a 6-0 streak since fighting in the UFC. His last two fights ended with first round TKOs from Chikadze, making quick work of big-bodied Jamey Simmons and UFC legend Cub Swanson. At 33, Chikadze is in his prime and while Barboza is always dangerous, we can’t make the same claims for the Brazilian; he’s been fighting since 2009. I think Chikadze takes the fight to Barboza for a late TKO or decision victory.

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday MLB Pick and Preview

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Saturday card has an Executive Level NFLX Play headlining along with a 5* College Football play, a Soccer Platinum Supreme move and a Powerful MLB Card. MLB Comp Play below.

The MLB Comp Play is on the NY. Mets on the run line at 7:10 eastern. The Mets fit a powerful database system based on last night heavy home favored 1 run loss where both teams scored 2 or less runs. NY is 7-1 this year as a home favorite of 140 or more off a home favored loss. Washington is 1-8 as a road dog off a road dog win. The Nats have Nolin going and he has allowed 7 runs in 7 innings. Stroman for the Mets has a superb 2.84 era. Look for the Mets to get the multiple run win. On Saturday a huge card is up and led by an Executive Level NFL TIER 1, A platinum Supreme Soccer Move, College Football 5* and a Powerful MLB Card. See us on facebook or at goldencontender@aol.com to Jump on and Cash out. For the  MLB Comp play. Make it the Mets on the run line. Rob V- GC Sports

MLB Total Play 8/27- WAS @ NYM

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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Tonight we have a matchup in which there is a “buy low” plus $ play on the total. With 94% of the $ on the UNDER, I realize I am out here on an island looking at the OVER 9. A few indicators I am looking at are- the F5 total 4.5 is juiced to the over, the YRFI (Yes- run in first inning) is juiced, and WAS is the 2nd best batting team against LHP on the road. I realize the NYM bats are cold going OV only once in their L9, but that was in 4 series vs the SFG and the LAD. The Mets have something to prove tonight against the Nats, needing this series to save face and keep their season around the .500 mark.

Nats pitcher Espino has struggled in his last few starts and I never understood why the Mets went after Rich Hill at the deadline Although, Hill has been decent lately, so that does worry me. However, the WAS hitters have proven they are still fighting- hitting UN their TT of 3.5 in only five of their L15. To boot, WAS has only gone UN in three times in their L10. Ballparkpal.com also has Citi Field has it’s 3rd most hitter friendly park tonight. Take the OVER 9 in this one!

WAS/ NYM OV 9 (+102)- 0.98 u. Many books at 8.5!

August 27th MLB Pick

By
Michael Fordham
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*MLB(1u): Phillies -1.5(-125) vs D-Backs–6:05 PM CT

I would not recommend consistently taking run-lines with this heavy of juice, but this is too good of a situation to pass up. The Diamondbacks beat the Phillies 8-7 last night, but Philly mustered together 5 runs in the 9th inning to make it a game. I believe that they will carry that momentum into tonight’s game and light up the scoreboard. Arizona SP Taylor Widener has given up 1.9 HR/9 so far this season, and a FIP at 5.68 suggests he’s a bottom-tier SP. The D-Backs bullpen is clearly the worst in the league(as shown last night) and can’t be trusted in any situation. Phillies SP Aaron Nola has great career numbers pitching at Citizens Bank Park, and that trend has continued into this season. His 4.33 ERA is not reflective of the kind of pitcher he is; I look more towards his 1.12 WHIP and 3.50 FIP, as well as his career numbers. This Diamondbacks lineup isn’t horrible, but they pose one of the easier matchups SP’s across the league can ask for. Like I said, I wouldn’t recommend making these types of plays a habit. But, tonight, I think it’s warranted. I like the Phillies to win big tonight.

MLB Friday Free Pick – A Winning Streak Will End

By
Shawn Knoche
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Happy Friday! Been a good week so far. Sitting at 10-4 Overall this week and 23-12-1 last 36 plays. The Oddsbreakers MLB Cappers have been on fire the last 3 weeks or so. Hoping to ride the wave all the way to the end of the year. I’ve got a total of five plays today. Reach out to me on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche if interested in the whole card or any packages. Football is right around the corner also, if interested in those picks let me know!

Today I’ve got a free play featuring two teams riding a winning streak.  The Rays come into the matchup today winners of 4 in a row and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their opponent the Orioles are riding a 2 game winning streak now after snapping that little 19 game losing streak they were riding. (If you missed the tweet, it’s not counted in my record as it was a personal play, but I did call the Orioles to win on Wednesday night before they took the lead and cashed a nice +211 Live Bet)

So how have these teams matched up so far this year heading into their final series? Well the Rays are 15-1 against the Orioles this year and 13-3 on the run line. They are 7-0 in the month of August and have outscored the orange birds 65-23 this month in their matchups covering the run line in every single game.

Pitching matchups place Shane McClanahan on the bump for the Rays while Matt Harvey gets the ball for the Orioles. McClanahan has a 3.63 ERA for the year with a 10.78K/9 and a 2.96 BB/9. Those are elite ratios folks. Matt Harvey has a 6.27 ERA with a 7.07 K/9 and a 2.70 BB/9. Not quite as elite. Harvey has actually pitched better in July posting three straight wins to end that month and not allowing an earned run. Once August hit he was right back to normal and is rocking a 6.63 ERA in his August starts and allowed 5 ERs to these Rays on Aug 16th over 4.2 IP. McClanahan is 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA his last 7 starts including 3 starts vs the Orioles in which he has allowed 5 ER over 17 IP.

Who am I to go against the trends? I see value in the run line even with some juice on it. Gimme the Rays Run Line -145 for 1 unit. 

Week 0 CFB Picks

By
Michael Fordham
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*CFB(1u): Nebraska/Illinois UNDER 54.5(-110)–Saturday Noon CT

This is an interesting handicap to open up the 2021 College Football season. Nebraska has had issues with the NCAA in recent weeks, and the Scott Frost camp is starting to grow thinner and thinner. Meanwhile, Illinois feels like they got their guy with Bret Bielema taking the reins in Champaign. Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez is entering his 4th season, but he has failed to live up to the Heisman hype he was once receiving. He lost his most dangerous weapon in Wan’Dale Robinson to the transfer portal and will be best served relying on his TE’s, especially early in the season. However, Illinois’ strength on defense is their Linebackers, and I think they’ll be able to stall out Nebraska’s offense and force Martinez into some mistakes. Illinois’ best chance at winning this game is to run the clock and try to shorten this game. They have a game-manager, pro-style QB in Brandon Peters to go along with 2 solid RB’s. Wide Receiver is a complete mystery for the Illini, so I’d expect to see lots of ground-and-pound football from them. Does Nebraska have the potential to break out offensively and show signs of improvement this season? Of course they do. However, I’ve yet to see any reason to trust them, and this won’t be a cake walk game for them. Early in the season and context considered, I think the Under is the best look in this game. 

*CFB(1.5u): Fresno State 1H TT OVER 24.5(-115) vs UCONN–Saturday 1 PM CT

If you don’t remember much about UCONN’s 2020 season, it’s because they didn’t have one. The last time the Huskies took the field was November 30th, 2019, a game that saw them lose 49-17 to Temple. That season, they went just 2-10(wins over Wagner and UMASS); in those 10 losses, their average margin of defeat was an astonishing 28.3 PPG. Point being, this was a bad team before, and we can only expect them to be worse coming off a year of no competition. Fresno State’s offense projects to be one of the best in the Mountain West this season with senior QB Jake Haener(336.8 YPG last year) leading the way. The Bulldogs WR room features 3 separate options that could emerge as leading receivers this season, and the running game found its rhythm towards the end of last season. Fresno State ran the 5th most plays per game in the country last season, meaning they should go fast and give themselves plenty of opportunities to reach this number. Perhaps the UCONN offense could surprise us in this game, but I’m almost certain the UCONN defense will be ill-prepared to match up with this potentially prolific Fresno State offense. I think the Bulldogs come out hot and reach the 30 point barrier by Halftime, covering this 1st Half team total with ease.

Rob Vinciletti: Friday NFLX Power System Card- Eagles at Jets Preview

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Friday card has our NFLX Preseason Game Of The Year backed with a 100% System dating to 1983, along with an MLB Friday night Hot side Blowout and Soccer NFL Total below.

The NFLX Comp play is on the Under 33.5 in the Philadelphia at NY. Jets game at 7:30 eastern. The Jet are on a 9-0 Under run at home in NFLX Action and this yearly Preseason Series with the Eagles is one of the Lowest scoring as they average 22 points per game. The Eagles have not looked good on offense putting up just 16 points thus far. The Jets were decent getting 23 in Green Bay but have been Inconsistent. The Jets defense has played well allowing just 21 in the first two games. Look for this game to stay Under. Friday the NFLX Play of the Year headlines from a perfect System dating to 1983. There is also a powerful top level Soccer Play and an MLB Friday night Hot Side Blowout. See us on facebook or at goldencontender@aol.com to Jump on as we start the weekend fast. For the NFL Comp totals play. Go Under Eagles and Jets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

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