UTEP has been the laughingstock of college football for some time now (along with UConn, UMass & NMSU). However, the Miners weren’t as bad as usual last year, actually sitting 3-1 before COVID-19 disruptions sidetracked the season. They have veteran coach Dana Dimel, who was regarded as an up-and-comer a generation ago at Wyoming and Houston and has patiently patched together a more competitive product at the Sun Bowl. The seeds have been planted for an upgraded offense if junior QB Gavin Hardison can smooth out some of the rough edges after flashing some upside last fall, and punishing north-south RB Deion Hankins scored 9 TDs in 7 games. Meanwhile, wideouts Justin Garrett and Jacob Cowing have proved they can stretch the field. Mostly, however, UTEP progressed enough on defense last fall to stay competitive, with Dimel finally hitting the jackpot on a handful of juco recruits, including DTs Kelton Moss and Keenan Stewart. New defensive coordinator Bradley Dale Peveto has been around the block after spending most of the last 15 years in the SEC, and he’ll be aligning UTEP in 4-2-5 looks he hopes can unleash the line and minimize some depth concerns at linebacker. In the big picture, if Dimel could win 3 in the truncated COVID-19 season, he can take the next step to 4 wins and maybe 5 with a schedule that could easily begin 2-0 with nearby New Mexico State and Bethune-Cookman out of the chute and a very winnable game at the Sun Bowl against New Mexico later in September before tackling the C-USA slate which includes Old Dominion.
I’ll make this one short and sweet as we shouldn’t invest too much into these exhibition games unless we see some significant value. I see light value on a few plays but I have no unit allocation– that’s up to you! Is it the regular season yet?!?!
Colts -2 (-110): Apparently Dan Campbell and the Lions don’t care much about the preseason, which shows me he may be sharper than his beastly appearance, but the Colts are just deeper and more experienced. I’m on Indy to end the preseason strong and snatch a win from Detroit in what should be a common occurrence this year for both teams.
Ravens -3.5 (-110): Do I need to explain? The Ravens are deeper and care way more about winning this– 3.5 is a tricky line but I don’t think the ol’ Football Team cares much about this contest. Battle of MD notwithstanding, this should be another Ravens win by margin. Don’t let me down, Harbaugh!
Texans +4 (-110): The Texans are playing surprisingly fierce in these exhibition games thus far and the Bucs are completely uninterested. If Brady plays, it won’t be for long. Why not bet on another Texans win? Well, I know why not. But they have the value.
Rams/Broncos under 33.5 (-110): Sean McVay continues to stiff-arm preseason play, which makes him wiser than most, and that usually results in low totals (the first two games sure did). Along with a deep defense, we think another under will hit.
Giants +3.5 (-110): The Giants coaching staff has said that Daniel Jones and other starters will indeed play, and they’ll possibly play for the majority of the first half. That’s enough for me to bet on the Giants as dogs against the unproven Mac Jones and a struggling Cam Newton, not to mention a NY defense that vastly improved last year.
The Yankees open up a 4-game set at Oakland Coliseum looking to continue their playoff surge against the Athletics. These are 2 teams headed in different directions with the Yankees riding an 11 game winning streak while the A’s are on a 4 game skid. In a vacuum, this is a great spot to bet on the Yankees. It’s hard to do it when they’re on an 11-game winning streak, with a loss feeling imminent, but a good rule to follow in betting is to ride the wave instead of guessing when it will end. With recent results out the window, the Yankees are undoubtedly the stronger offense, They’ve posted a 123 wRC+ over the last 2 weeks to rank 5th in baseball, bringing up their ISO to .228 over that span. The walks are still coming at a ridiculous pace, and the strikeouts have come in bunches too, but the home runs and extra base hits that were so obviously missing have finally come to fruition. Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Yanks. He is 8-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 123.1 innings pitched this season. Since the break, Taillon has pitched to an excellent 1.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 3.29 FIP in 40.2 innings pitched. Righty James Kapriellian will toe the rubber tonight for the A’s. He is 7-4 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 88.2 innings this year. Kapriellian has regressed a bit in the 2nd half where he has pitched to a 4.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 5.19 xFIP in 26.2 innings since the break. Kaprellian, who has been effective this season in the face of underwhelming barrel and hard-hit rates. With hard contact his nemesis, it’s going to be a tricky proposition to face a Yankees team with a beefy 11.2% barrel rate over the last 14 days, a number which leads the major leagues by a considerable margin. The Yankees have been thriving in all facets of the game lately and rank in the top 5 of the majors in slugging percentage (.494), OPS (.822), ISO (.259), wOBA (.351) and wRC+ (124) in the past week. On the other hand, Oakland’s bats rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in hits (42), homeruns (5th), runs scored (19th), batting average (.213), wOBA (.277) and wRC+ (78) in the past 7 days. Again, the A’s have sputtered at the plate in August and Jameson Taillon has been adequate, to the tune of a 3.18 ERA. He’s been one of the very best pitchers in baseball in the 2nd half and matches up quite nicely against a team which has struggled to drive the ball lately. The bullpens on both teams have been pitching well by posting a WHIP below 1.16 and both have ERAs under 3.20 in the past 30 days. The edge goes to the Yankees to continue their surge and take Game 1 of the series on the road.
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The Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox square off in the rubber match of their 3-game set tonight at Fenway Park. Right-hander John Gant will get the start for the Twins. He is 4-7 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across 164.2 innings pitched this season. Gant has posted a 3.31 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .246 BABIP and a high 5.23 xFIP on the road this season. Veteran lefty Chris Sale goes for the Red Sox and in his first 2 starts of the season owns a 2-0 record with a 1.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 10 innings. Boston comes into this ballgame owning a 2nd ranked wOBA in the past week while the Twins aren’t far off ranking 11th. Additionally, both teams rank 5th and 6th, respectively, in wRC+ in the past 30 days and have scored a combined 129 runs in the past 2 weeks. Minnesota ranks in the top 10 of the league in doubles and homeruns versus left-handed pitching on the road this season while the Red Sox lead the league in batting average and is 3rd overall with a .350 wOBA versus righties at home this year. Both of these bullpens have really struggled of late allowing 133 combined runs in 209.1 combined innings pitched. I could see the Red Sox scoring 10 on their own here with the Twins scoring a couple off the pen after Sale gives way, as he will not get the chance to go the distance in his 3rd start of the year so look for the Boston pen to give up a couple runs. Take Over 10 runs
The New York Yankees and the Oakland Athletics are set for game 1 of their 4-game series on the west coast at RingCentral Coliseum. These are 2 teams headed in different directions with the Yankees riding an 11 game winning streak while the A’s are on a 4 game skid. Right-hander Jameson Taillon will take the mound for the Yanks. He is 8-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 123.1 innings pitched this season. Since the break, Taillon has pitched to an excellent 1.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 3.29 FIP in 40.2 innings pitched. Righty James Kapriellian will toe the rubber tonight for the A’s. He is 7-4 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 88.2 innings this year. Kapriellian has regressed a bit in the 2nd half where he has pitched to a 4.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 5.19 xFIP in 26.2 innings since the break. The Yankees have been thriving in all facets of the game lately and rank in the top 5 of the majors in slugging percentage (.494), OPS (.822), ISO (.259), wOBA (.351) and wRC+ (124) in the past week. On the other hand, Oakland’s bats rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in hits (42), homeruns (5), runs scored (19), batting average (.213), wOBA (.277) and wRC+ (78) in the past 7 days. The bullpens on both teams have been pitching well by posting a WHIP below 1.16 and both have ERAs under 3.20 in the past 30 days. There is only one way to play this one in my opinion and look for New York to extend the streak. Take the Yankees -109
These teams couldn’t be on more opposite trajectories right now. The Yankees enter tonight’s game on an 11 game win streak, while the A’s have dropped 8 of their last 10. The Yankees’ bats have started to heat up, and I’ve reached the point where I’m willing to trust them. Oakland SP James Kaprielian has had a solid rookie campaign(3.25 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), but I’m not as high on him as other handicappers are. His FIP is nearly a full point higher than his ERA, and he’s allowed 1.2 HR/9 this season. Those numbers will play well against most teams, but this Yankees lineup has the ability to expose him tonight. Most importantly, being a rookie, Kaprielian doesn’t have the experience pitching meaningful games late in the season. Yankees SP Jameson Taillon has really turned things around in the second half of the season and draws a favorable matchup with an A’s lineup that has scored just 27 runs in their last 10 games. Taillon has had his struggles on the road, but Oakland’s ballpark dimensions tend to favor the pitcher, and the wind won’t be a major factor tonight. I hesitate to play the Yankees full game because these bullpens are equally reliable, but I give the edge early in this game to the hottest team in baseball with the more established pitcher.
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Angels/Orioles over 11 (-110), 2 units: If you can’t beat em, join em! Sometimes you have to buck your desire to fade the trends and just go with what makes sense. The Angels seemed to be enjoying their stay in Baltimore before the incomparable (and I mean that sarcastically) Orioles made a comeback last night and ended their horrid losing streak at 18 games. Today it’ll be another hot and humid day in Baltimore (trust me I know, I live here), with even more moisture creeping up in the mid-afternoon. That should create a perfect hitting scenario and it’s even more ideal against the pitchers at Camden Yards today. James Barria (5.87 ERA, 1.47 WHIP over 30.2 innings) hasn’t exactly been dominant in his short 2021 stint, and Keegan Akin (7.92 ERA, 1.81 WHIP over 63.2 innings) has abysmal, indefensible numbers. The Orioles have plenty to work on but it’s their rotation that needs the real evolution. The O’s can hit, the A’s can hit, they’ve collectively scored 38 runs in 2 games and it’s an idyllic hot-bed in Charm City today. The over is 35-14-4 in Orioles last 53 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game– take it.
Reds (+101), 1.5 units: I’m taking a shot on Cincinnati today. Sonny Gray (STL, RHP, 5-6) and Brett Anderson (MIL, LHP, 4-7) have shockingly similar numbers at face value. Today’s starters both display a 4.15 ERA and WHIPs of 1.32/1.31, respectively. But there are some major differences. Gray has xERA (3.44) and xFIP (3.48) marks that suggest he’s overdue for positive regression and that sheer bad luck has plagued the 31 year old. He also owns a solid 77% LOB rate and has considerably more strikeouts (111, compared to Anderson’s 51) than his foe. Cincinnati cannot afford to keep dropping games to Milwaukee, who now leads the NL Central by a solid 9.5 games after earning two more victories in this series. The Brewers own a 10-8 series lead this season. The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game and their pitcher and offense are way overdue for positive regression– I’ll take the Reds for plus money.
Sneaky Line Alert! The Giants are -125 as a favorite: Just something to point out here. The San Francisco Giants have the best record in MLB, they’ve won their last 4 games, they’ve beaten the Mets in 2 straight contests, they’re 4-1 against New York this year, and they have the superior pitcher today in the consistent arm of Alex Wood (Carrasco has looked BAD). Yet here we are and they’re only a -125 road favorite against the Mets today. Buyer beware– this line is daring us to take the Giants (much like the Red Sox line yesterday), and something or someone is implying that the Mets will pull off a surprise win. Consider a bet on the Mets or avoid this contest altogether.
We have a great show for you today! Kyle Hunter from Huntersportspicks.com @KyleHunterPicks and Bryan Leonard @BLeonardSports from @Wagertalk come back on to discuss some college football and some NFL! First, Kiev talks about why he keeps some of his sponsors around rather than making a common switch. Next, Kyle comes on and the guys get right into discussing which coaching and coordinator changes will affect the pace in some of the 2021 college football teams. That is very important information! Then, Kyle and Kiev discuss some season win total plays and some best bets for College Football week 1! Next, Bryan comes on and the guys start talking NFL and some changes that happened in 2020 that may or may not stay consistent in 2021. Then, Bryan and Kiev discuss some new NFL season win totals as well as NFL week 1 games and plays. Finally, Kiev gives out a UFC on ESPN free play for some MMA action this coming weekend.
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The Europa League no doubt rout is on FC Copenhagen. Game 235634 AT 1:00 Eastern. Copenhagen takes on Turkish League Sivasspor. Copenhagen carries great momentum coming in playing off a 2-0 Clean sheet win over SnderjyskE. They are unbeaten over the last 5 in Danish SuperLiga Play. Sivasspor has regressed in form and has lost the last 3 over all competitions. Copenhagen likely gets the win here and advances as they have the deeper and better defensive team. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports.
I’ll keep this one brief. This line opened -1.5 and is now at 6. Markets understand the NYL’s top scorer is out. Phoenix is vying to stay relevant in the postseason mix, seeking revenge on their earlier loss to NYL, and is coming in hotter. To avoid the worst of the number, I’ll look to make a smaller play 1H because I think they’re capable.
Today we have two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum as far as totals are concerned. TB has only gone UN three times their L17 while PHI has only gone OV twice in their L16. The Ray’s bats have been on fire while the Phillies have cooled off. What to do?
Philly looks to avoid being swept at home tonight so I expect them to bring their ‘A’ game. I don’t see the Phillies stopping the hot TB bats and although their bullpen has improved of late, they’re capable of meltdowns. Although TB’s SP Yarborough pitched well in his last outing he got rocked in the two before that.
As far as the market is concerned, this total opened at 8.5 and dropped to 8. 68% of the tickets are on the under, yet 67% of the money is on the over. The contradictory tickets v. money numbers make me want to look at the over. I’ll follow the money on this one.
