Hi all! Throughout the NFL Season, every Sunday, I’ll list the Circa Picks I entered into the contest (follow our entry @FarleyBets), and I’ll post my survivor pick as well. Check it out every week and let me know if you have any questions (@ChrisRFarley1 on Twitter).
Circa Picks:
Survivor Pick:
Broncos/Giants under 42
*3 Star Free Pick* The Denver Broncos defense was good last year, and it should be even better this season. Denver doesn’t have any real weaknesses as a defense. I’m especially impressed with their secondary. The Broncos have multiple very good defensive coaches on the staff, and they will make a lot of teams have a very difficult day this season.
The New York Giants defense was far better than many realize last year. They were put in terrible spots by an offense that was just brutal. They’ll be put in those same bad spots again this year, but I expect the defense to be solid again.
There is some wind in the forecast here, which is helpful for the under. Both of these quarterbacks are likely to be game managers in this one.
Take the under.
*Coming off an 8-0 day on paid plays. Join in today!*
Sunday card has the 100% Opening Week NFL Play of the Year along with an Executive Level TIER 1, The NFL Total of the Month, MLB and Soccer. NFL Comp Play below.
\The NFL Comp Play is on Atlanta at 1:00 eastern. The Falcons fit a solid early season Power System here today and we note that the host team has covered the last 5 in the series, while Philly has failed to cover 5 of 6 here over the years. The Falcons are 11-2 in their opening home game with Matt Ryan and 7-1 ats in the first 4 games vs NFC East teams. The Eagles are rebuilding and looked terrible in the preseason. The Eagles have struggled failing to cove 12 of the last 13 in dome games. Look for the Falcons to get the win and cover. On Sunday a huge card is up and led by the Perfect System Opening Week Play of the Year, the Executive Level TIER 1 Play, The Total of the Month and more. There is also Top Level MLB and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter toJump on and cash out. For the NFL Comp Play. Go with the Falcons. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
Last week, we started the season going 6-0 in College Football! I have 5 CFB plays for today and am giving out 2 below. Our recent track record is 25-10 (71%) L35 plays overall!! Get our Premium Picks, daily packages and subscriptions at the SPORTS PICK HUB!!
You can also get my monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers.
The Texas A&M Aggies visit the Colorado Buffaloes Saturday at Empower Field at Mile High for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Aggies are fresh off of a 41-10 win over Kent State in its opener and Colorado cruised past Northern Colorado 35-7. Colorado will certainly have the home-field advantage, but this game is not being played in Boulder. Instead, the Buffaloes and Aggies will travel to Denver for this “neutral-site” game, however, it is just 29 miles away from CU campus. It will be interesting to see what the how each of these freshmen quarterbacks perform against better defenses in Week 2. Colorado QB Brendon Lewis got his first start against Northern Colorado and was decent, hitting on 10 of his 15 passes for 102 yards. With the Buffs getting out to the early lead and running the ball effectively, Lewis did not need to put the ball in the air much. Colorado ranked 23rd in the nation in running the football and has 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen back from last season. Last week, the Buffaloes ran the ball for 281 yards against Northern Colorado and had 16 of their 22 first downs come via the ground game. A&M returns nine starters on defense and ranked 2nd in the nation in rush defense a season ago, but there is still a lot of youth on that side. Kent State ran for 235 yards and averaged 5.0 yards per carry against the Aggies. A&M’s freshman quarterback Haynes King is dealing with plenty of pressure as he replaces Kellen Mond. King got off to a choppy start last week, completing 21 of 33 attempts for 292 yards with three interceptions and two touchdowns. He’ll need to be sharper this week as the talent level he’ll face takes a considerable step up. The Buffaloes have seven returning starters on the defensive side of the ball and have a decent pass rush so the Aggies new starters on the O-line will have to jell quickly in this game. Both of these squads will look to establish the run early and put pressure on the freshmen quarterbacks. The key to this game will be who can run the football more effectively. I am anticipating the Buffs to run the ball enough to make this game close and to cover the spread while keeping the total under the projected points scored. Take Colorado +17 and Under 50.5.
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Buffalo at Nebraska 3:30
PICK: Buffalo +14 1 unit
This got to +14 on Thursday and I put in a play on Buffalo
Buffalo, new head coach, returns just 4 starters on offense and they came out last week in their opener running the ball for over 300 yards and playing good defense. It was against Wagner who is a lower tier FCS team but the point is, this Buffalo team didn’t look to miss a beat.
Nebraska blew out Fordham last week but allowed 4.6 yards per carry and had only 1 sack on defense. I believe we learned a lot about Nebraska in their opener at Illinois with their coach coming into the season probably needing a good season to save his job and they didn’t look to have learned or improved on what they have struggled with in recent years.
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When I first started chatting with the main man here at The Oddsbreakers Kiev, I explained to him that as a man in the central time zone with family that goes to bed early I love studying the late night games hard so I have some skin in the game with whatever is on TV late. We have coined these plays Late Night KNaction, and I have one for you on Saturday in college football.
San Diego State travels to Tucson to take on the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night. The Aztecs feature a solid rushing based offense. They have 4 of 5 lineman back from last year and RB Greg Bell who averaged 5.6 Yards per carry in 2020. Arizona allowed almost 6 yards per carry on the ground last year. QB Jordan Brookshire for the Aztecs is however not great. He went 6 of 19 for 76 yards and a pick in the opener. The Aztecs defense is their strength. They return 7 of 11 starters from 2020 and look like they are primed for another good year slowing teams down.
Arizona has a new head coach and didnt play awful in their opener vs BYU. I’m not sold on BYU this year however so I dont think its any sort of an indicator that an 8 point loss to them shows improvement for AZ. They did throw the ball successfully for 345 yards against BYU, but really struggled rushing it totaling only 81 yards on the ground. That will continue to be a problem here against the experienced front 7 for SDSU. Arizona’s defense had a decent showing against BYU allowing 368 total yards, but their rushing defense is going to bite them tonight.
I have this game as San Diego -5.5, so getting points here makes this a really solid play. Good luck today and I’ll be watching late night with you this evening. SDSU +2.5 1.5 Units.
Interested in all my picks? 5-2 So far this year in College Football, hit me up on Twitter @thegreatknoche for some great packages.
*NFL(1u): Cardinals/Titans OVER 53.5(-110)–Sunday Noon CT
I fully acknowledge that this is a square play, but I’m still going to jump on this Over. Put simply, I believe there is too much offensive talent for each of these defenses to deal with. The Titans were already really good on offense last season, and now that they’ve added a truly elite WR in Julio Jones to pair with all-pro RB Derrick Henry, the sky is really the limit for Tennessee. The Cardinals defense is set up well for the future at the LB position, but the additions of JJ Watt and Malcolm Butler aren’t going to pay off the dividends most people think. With that said, this Titans defense is totally untrustable and will likely be in the bottom-third of the league once again this year. Kliff Kingsbury has a dynamic QB to work with in Kyler Murray as well as a star WR in Deandre Hopkins, so paired with Kingsbury’s genius offensive mind, the Cardinals should have a great gameplan here in Week 1. I acknowledge this is square, but I think we’ll see even more of a shootout than this total implies.
*NFL(1u): Vikings/Bengals OVER 47(-110)–Sunday Noon CT
There are many questions surrounding Joe Burrow’s effectiveness coming off a torn ACL, but I tend to think he’s going to be just fine. The Bengals wouldn’t be putting their franchise QB at risk in Week 1 if he wasn’t ready to go. While there’s questions surrounding the weapons around Burrow, it helps that the Vikings are nothing more than a mediocre defense. Luckily for the Vikings, the Bengals defense will feature a ton of new faces and shouldn’t provide much of a threat to their uber-experienced offense. Kirk Cousins gets a lot of hate, but he is plenty capable of managing an NFL offense, especially considering the amount of talent he has around him. I expect the Vikings to come out strong in this one, forcing the Bengals to go on the offensive when they have the ball. If the Bengals keep it close from the start, I still trust the Vikings offense down the stretch. There are too many situations in which the Over hits at this number, so I will play the value.
*NFL(1u): Packers -3.5 “@” Saints–Sunday 3:25 PM CT
If you noticed, I put quotations around the “@ Saints” because this game will not be played in New Orleans. Rather, due to the hurricane that ravaged NOLA, the Saints will play this game in Jacksonville. Sure, Saints fans will likely travel pretty well, but they simply won’t enjoy the same home-field advantage that they would’ve in the Superdome. I’m all for second chances, but I have serious questions about Saints QB Jameis Winston entering this season. The talent has always been there, but INT’s have absolutely crippled the former #1 overall pick. The Packers defense isn’t great, but I would still consider them above average; they are more than capable of making a fool out of Winston on Sunday. While there was a ton of drama between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this offseason, I don’t see that carrying over to the field. Plenty of guys have had bad relationships with management only to see it have no impact once the helmet gets strapped on. Rodgers has a great connection with Davante Adams, and there is enough around him to expect a good Week 1 performance. This line is begging you to take the 3-and-a-hook with New Orleans; I’m going to put my faith in one of the greatest QB’s off all time and take the Packers to win this game by a TD.
*NFL(1.5u): Panthers -4(-110) vs Jets–Sunday Noon CT
The verdict is still out on whether Zach Wilson is the man for the job for the Jets, but it’s clear that this is a tough spot for the rookie QB. With Christian McCaffery back healthy, I think the Panthers are a sleeper team that is being undervalued by the betting markets. Matt Rhule has a season in Carolina under his belt, and his OC Joe Brady now has a highly skilled QB to work with in… that’s right, former Jets QB Sam Darnold. I expect Darnold to fit in much better in Carolina under Brady than he did in New York, and you know he wants nothing more than to stick it to his former organization that set him up for failure. The Jets have a better coaching regime that sets them up for long-term success, but it’s unrealistic to expect Zach Wilson to go win on the road in his first career start with what’s still a below average roster. I think the Panthers jump out to an early lead and control this game from start to finish. This is my play of the week for the Week 1 NFL slate.
*NFL(1.5u): Steelers/Bills UNDER 48(-110)–Sunday Noon CT
Because the Steelers had a rough finish to the 2020 season following an 11-0 start, many people aren’t very high on them this year. I am not one of those people; this line(Bills -6.5) is a slap in the face. However, rather than play the Steelers side, I’m going to go heavy on the Under. Led by DE TJ Watt, this Steelers defense is going to give Josh Allen and the Bills all they can handle; being that it is Week 1, I don’t expect the Buffalo offense to be at their sharpest. Ben Roethlisberger has slimmed down almost 30 pounds since last season and figures to be a bigger asset for the Pittsburgh offense, but the Steelers will have nothing handed to them playing in a hostile environment. Pittsburgh’s issues last year stemmed from not being able to establish the run; while rookie RB Najee Harris figures to help change that narrative, this is not the matchup you’re going to see them start running the ball effectively. This total is simply too high given that it is just Week 1 and the environment expects to be pretty electric.
*3 Star Free Pick on NC State* The NC State Wolfpack are a team I’m a lot higher on than most people this year. While NC State did go 8-4 last year, they were actually without their best quarterback (Devin Leary) for much of the season after he suffered a major injury. Bailey Hockman did a nice job for the team, but their upside is higher with Leary. Fortunately, Leary is back and the NC State offense is filled with a ton of skill position talent this year.
NC State’s Bam Knight and Ricky Person form a great tailback tandem. Both ran for over 100 yards last week against USF. It won’t come nearly as easy this week against a solid Mississippi State defense, but these are two good running backs. Leary is great at throwing the deep ball and that can really keep the defense honest.
NC State’s defense pitched a shutout against USF. Yes it was USF, but this NC State defense is clearly much improved unit. Cyrus Fagan, a transfer from Florida State, is a great leader in the secondary. Derek Pitts Jr., who transferred from Marshall, gives the team a top notch cover corner as well.
Mississippi State needed an epic 4th quarter comeback just to win by a point over LA Tech last week. The Bulldogs offense went 5 for 5 on scoring TD’s in the red zone and they needed every last point. Mike Leach’s offense still isn’t working that well with the current quarterbacks and the weakness at offensive line for Miss State.
I think NC State has the much higher upside and they are the more balanced team.
Take NC State.
Sharp NFL Sides. Lots of lines have already moved too long ago but here is some recent stuff.
Sharp Sides
Sharp Totals
