This line is extremely fishy, but the love we’re seeing the Mets get from the oddsmakers is not warranted. Mets SP Taijuan Walker had a great first half to the season, but he has simply not been the same pitcher he was just a month ago. Compared to a 2.50 ERA in his first 16 starts, his last 7 starts has seen his ERA jump all the way up to 3.86. This San Francisco lineup handles righties very well, especially in the power department. While lefties have struggled against Walker this season and the Giants figure to stack lefties per usual, they’ve proven all season long that they have what it takes to come through. Giants SP Johnny Cueto is well past his prime, but he has plenty left in the tank to hold down this Mets lineup tonight. We all know the Mets’ lineup looks good on paper, but until they can put it together in real games, I’m not going to trust them. They were shut out by the SFG staff last night and have been totally unreliable all year(29th in runs this season). The Giants bullpen didn’t have to expend any of their main pieces last night, and while NYM didn’t need to either, the Giants have a +0.24 advantage in bullpen WHIP. The situation around the Giants feels somewhat similar to what we saw with the New York Knicks this past NBA season; the oddsmakers consistently undervalue them only to be made a fool of once the game is played. I’m more than willing to take the Giants tonight at a plus-price.
After a crazy finish to The Northern Trust, Tony Finau wins his first tournament in over 1,900 days. Finau defeated Cameron Smith in a one hole playoff to capture the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
We had a bunch of guys (J. Thomas, V. Hovland, K. Na) near the top of the leaderboard heading into Monday but, none could get it done. We now move onto the BMW Championship where the Top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings will compete. After this week, the Top 30 Golfers will compete in the Tour Championship for a shot at the FedEx Cup Trophy.
The BMW Championship takes place at Caves Valley Golf Course, a course that has never hosted a PGA Tour event. It has hosted a few professional events in the past including the 2002 U.S. Senior Open and the LPGA International Crown Team Match Play event in 2014. It’s most recent professional event was back in 2017 when it hosted the Constellation Senior Players Championship on the Champions Tour.
“Les Disharoon – the former CEO of Monumental Corporation – had been trying to create a high-end club of his own since moving to the Baltimore area in 1977. But it wasn’t until 1986 that he bought 962 acres overlooking Caves Valley, just 20 minutes outside the city.
The course first opened in 1991 and just four years later was the site of the 1995 U.S. Mid-Amateur. Fazio originally designed a three-hole short course near the clubhouse with the idea that it could be a twilight loop for members after a long day at the office or even a quick practice loop. Nowadays the area is still maintained but primarily used as a range.
Incidentally, Fazio was also designing Conway Farms in Chicago at the same time, another former BMW Championship venue.” – Source
“Caves Valley’s superintendent is Kyle Steidel, who was previously employed at Muirfield Village. Steidel has brought the work practices from Jack Nicklaus’ showpiece course in Ohio to Maryland, and has also leaned on the advice from Paul Latshaw, a former Muirfield Village Superintendent who now holds that position at the world-class Merion Golf Club.
The usual back nine will serve as the front side for this FedExCup Playoffs shootout with most holes framed by huge trees on both sides. The dense forest will be near impossible to escape in certain spots if wayward shots find their way into the timber.
Here we will also be spoiled by two dramatic par 3s – the third and fifth holes for the tournament – that play over ravines to narrow and well protected putting surfaces.
The usual front nine that will serve as the closing holes this week showcases more wide-open spaces but also some interesting water hazards. Nos. 11 and 12 of tournament week have large ponds flanking the right side of the hole while the par-3 13th is a long 221-yard hole that basically necessitates carrying a pond the entire hole.
The holes drop down in elevation early before finding a way back up towards the clubhouse with the finishing hole featuring a creek down the right side. High heat and humidity along with elevation changes will put a premium on fitness.
A recent renovation was undertaken to get the venue to PGA TOUR tournament standard and was a great success. For tournament week the bentgrass greens are expected to provide smooth, consistent putting conditions, having benefitted from extra aerification and topdressing over the past two years.
The bentgrass tees, fairways and approaches have also received extra maintenance and have a firm foundation. The rough inside the rope lines is newly established and is largely a combination of tall fescue and Kentucky bluegrass. The bunkers have excellent drainage and are filled with a premium sand supply.” – Source
Coming off a Monday without value (in my opinion) and no plays, we like today’s card and have 3 Premium plays for clients!
We improved our record over the weekend to include cashing 6 straight, 15-5 (75%) in our last 20 underdog plays, 25-10 (71%) in our last 35 plays and 40-22 (65%) in our last 62 plays.
I have a Top Play 2-Pack (which includes another +$ dog) at Sports Pick Hub and a free premium side play for you below for tonight’s ballgame between the Rays and Phillies where we look to continue executing the edge!
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The Tampa Bay Rays head to Philadelphia tonight to play the Phillies in game 1 of a 2-game set at Citizens Bank Park. The 2008 World Series matchup rematch features two teams going in opposite directions with Tampa winning 7 of their last 10 and Philly losing 6 of their last 10, including being swept the the measly Arizona Diamondbacks. Rookie right-hander Drew Rasmussen will hone the mound for the Rays. He is 1-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 64 innings pitched on the year. In 13 innings as a starter, Rasmussen owns a 2.77 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and a 3.34 xFIP and has posted a 3.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 2.64 xFIP on the road this season. Lefty Ranger Suarez will get the ball for the Phillies. He is 5-4 with an impressive 1.47 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 55 innings pitched this season. Suárez has pitched the majority of his innings out of the bullpen but has transitioned to a starter in his last 4 games. He owns a 2.45 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, .268 BABIP and a 4.52 xFIP over 14.2 innings as a starting pitcher. I’m not sure there is a better example of a pitchers stat line set up for negative regression and facing a team like Tampa should escalate that. The Rays come into this ball game leading the league in runs scored (47) in the past week and the past month (172) while the Phillies are hitting a lousy .231 over the past month and has been even worse the past week hitting a league worst .177 while only scoring 20 runs and owning a 24th ranked 75 wRC+. These bullpens are at opposite ends of the spectrum as well. Tampa’s pen owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in the past month and have been one of the best bullpens all season long. Philly’s pen has not been good all season and rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in the past month posting a 4.02 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 4.64 xFIP. I see Tampa’s offense aiding to Suárez’s expected regression while Rasmussen continues to shine against a struggling offense. The Rays could break this one open and I wouldn’t be opposed to taking the Tampa run line either but the price on the money line is better than expected. Take the Rays -116
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MLB
Arizona at Pittsburgh 7:05
Bumbarner vs Brubaker
Pick: ARI First 5 Innings (-118) LEAN</strong>
Bumgarner 1.93 ERA last 7 starts
ARI has won 5 of last 6 starts made by Bumgarner
ARI won 8 of last 10 vs PIT
PIT lost 9 of last 10 starts made by Brubaker
Brubaker 9.09 ERA last 7 starts
Brubaker 5.69 ERA in night games
PIT batting .216 last 10 games
I hate taking seemingly “obvious” plays. They seem to get blown up somehow, some way. Only 66% of the $ is on LAA today so far. Somebody likes BAL here today. Maybe it’s not so “obvious”. Surprisingly, this is actually the first matchup LAA pitcher Dylan Bundy has had with the O’s since they let him hit the free agent market 2 years ago. I like pitchers facing their old squads for the first time. A lot of folks are down on Bundy lately, but he hasn’t given up over 4 hits in a game in his L10.
Add to that, BAL is the 4th worst team BA vs RHP. LAA is the 8th best. BAL’s Spenser Watkins showed some promise earlier in the season but has been getting lit up lately allowing 4 or more runs in his L5. LAA is actually hanging around .500 (W%) despite their injuries and has been a tough out facing some tough teams on this long road trip. The Angels need this series to look at ending the season a winning team. These are 2 teams on different paths, I don’t see BAL turning it around tonight. The starting pitcher matchup favors LAA in my numbers so I’ll take LAA F5 RL -1/2.
The Phillies are entering “must win” territory as we approach the final month of the season. While they are feeling good after a series win in San Diego, this team is brutally inconsistent in every facet of the game. The Rays, meanwhile, have the AL East all but locked up and have played consistently good baseball all season. Rays SP Drew Rasmussen is in good current form, allowing just 1 run over 8 innings in his last 2 starts. He also carries a road WHIP at 1.00 entering this start. The Rays bullpen is one of the most reliable in baseball and should be completely fresh coming off an off day. Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has had a ton of success this season(1.47 ERA), but you don’t need me to tell you that’s not sustainable. He surrendered 4 walks and 8 hits in his last start, a clear warning sign that he is due to come back down to earth. The Phillies bullpen has shown improvement over the last month but is still far from reliable. I assume that Suarez’s success on the mound this season is what is warranting this price, but I’m more than willing to back arguably the most consistent team in baseball at a pick’em price.
*MLB(1u): Indians -1.5(+115) vs Rangers–6:10 PM CT
The Rangers have been historically bad on the road this season; yesterday, they blew a lead in Boston and eventually lost on a walk-off grand slam in extra innings. To expect them to bounce back with a win today would be foolish, in my opinion. Rangers SP Taylor Hearn has allowed 1.9 HR/9 on the road this season, and this Indians lineup has surprisingly handled lefties pretty well at home as of late(.286 AVG, 15 HR’s since July 1st). Indians SP Eli Morgan draws an extremely easy matchup against a Rangers lineup that is hitting just .199 against righties since July 1st. He is coming off a 6 IP, 0 ER performance and has a FIP almost 1 run lower than his ERA. The substantial bullpen advantage for Cleveland is enough to get me on the run line tonight at a very reasonable price.
We gave away 3 FREE premium picks yesterday on Twitter and we hit every pick, making us 3-0 on the day and 25-13 over the last 19 days betting MLB. That’ll do! Onto Tuesday!
Rays/Phillies under 9 (-110), 1.5 units: Two eager young pitchers in Drew Rasmussen (3.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.43 xFIP, 0.77 HR/9 IP over 47 innings) and Ranger Suarez (1.47 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.80 xERA, 84.2% LOB rate, 0.49 HR/9 IP over 55 innings) look to put on another show in Philadelphia as these two contenders square off in a big series at Citizens Bank Park. These are two capable offenses have been on different trajectories recently; the Phillies are absolutely ice cold over the last 2 weeks, ranking dead last in slugging % and near dead last in homeruns and wOBA. The Rays’ lineup has been sensational, ranking in the top 3 in most major offensive categories during the same span. Philadelphia is in semi-panic mode after their surge in early August came to a screeching halt and they need to keep winning to stay in NL East contention. I’m going to trust these two arms in what should be a highly competitive contest. A ton of trends favor the over but this isn’t the same Philly team we saw weeks ago. The under is 11-2-2 in Phillies last 15 overall– take it.
Lean, Orioles in the first 5 innings (+110): The Orioles are getting close to making history. Losers of now 18 straight, the Orioles have been outscored by 102 runs (!!!) during their skid and one more loss would tie them for the most losses in a row since the Royals back in 2005. Spenser Watkins has showed promise in his early career and the Angels are close to officially being out of playoff contention. I think Baltimore can hang and the lines suggest that they’ll pull out the victory today.
Reds/Brewers over 7.5 (-115), 1.5 units: The antithesis of the Rays/Phillies contest, two of the best offenses in MLB square off with their aces on the mound and I’m favoring the over. In a sport where the pitcher’s control the lines and handicapping, Corbin Burnes and Tyler Mahle go head to head in a big matchup in the NL Central. Milwaukee is the best offense in baseball over the last two weeks and I have the data to prove it. Here are their rankings the last 14 days: 1st in wOBA, 1st in slugging %, 1st in batting average, 4th in homeruns, 2nd in runs, 3rd in RBIs. For all we’ve contemplated and debated about the Brewers’ lineup, they’ve been exceptionally consistent this year. The Reds’ offense isn’t much further away, ranking top 10 most of the same categories over the last 2 weeks. I trust and appreciate the command of the two chosen throwers today, but I trust the over on a low total for 1.5 humble units.
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Las Vegas vs San Francisco -3.5 O/U 35.5
Kyle Shanahan is 1-1 this preseason but he is actually 0-2 ATS. The thing that I learned about Kyle is that he doesn’t care so much about preseason wins as much as he cares about getting his young guys some reps and getting into the season healthy. The 49ers were the most injured team last year and they even have a few injuries to guys like Maurice Hurst and Mychal Kendricks who were expected to play decent sized rolls this year. The Raiders are not without injuries themselves when starting guard Richie Incognito injured his calf and backup linebacker Nicholas Morrow injured his ankle but both should be back by week 1 or 2 at the latest. The obvious thing that I see in this handicap is that Jon Gruden does not like to lose in the preseason. He is 39-18 since 1999 and 7-2 in the final week of preseason. Kyle Shanahan is 1-2 in his final week of the pre and his 49ers team will be playing a lot of Trey Lance but is a rookie quarterback a match for a pre-season god like Nathan Peterman? Certainly not for this spread. Take Vegas baby!
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back to break down more important fantasy football information to prepare you for your season and your draft. First, Kiev recaps the weekend of sports wagering. Next, he gets into preseason NFL football week 3 touching on almost every game and giving out 2 plays! Then, Dave comes on to discuss Fantasy Football draft strategy with a few changes in our rankings. Which situation should we start drafting early receivers and quarterbacks? What does it matter to your rankings to have a 4pt TD pass compared to a 6pt TD pass? If you are a handicapper and are looking build upon your base and bottom line, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com!
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