The Afternoon Soccer Play is on Aston Villa -1.5 goals Over Barrow on the Asian Handicap at 2:45 eastern. We have a stark difference in talent and depth here today as Aston Villa beats team from arguably the worlds best League the EPL. They take on a Barrow team that is from League 2 which is the 4th Tier in English Football. Even if Villa goes easy here its a multiple goal win, Barrow finished 21st in in League 2 and narrowly missed relegation to Tier 5 League. While these two have never met Aston Villa who narrowly missed the European league is the top level outfit. Aston Villa has the upper hand here. Play for the multi goal win for Villa. Rob Vinciletti
MLB 8/23/21 Monday Mayhem Free Play
Arizona vs Pittsburgh -122 O/U 9
This could be a very smelly game with two bottom feeding teams and two bad pitchers going at it. The question to me is always, how bad? Wil Crow it taking the mound for the Bucs with a 5.71 FIP and 1.57 FIP. Pretty bad numbers if you ask me. Arizona is coming off of a nice road win yesterday in Colorado and it’s time for them to come back down to life. The snakes also have a new pitcher tonight in Humberto Mejia who hasn’t pitched this year in the majors. Humberto pitched 10 innings in 2020 with a piss poor 6.99 FIP. At least Crow has 84 innings in this year. Arizona has the better batting average ranking 20th in the league to Pittsburgh’s 26th, but Pittsburgh has the better bullpen pitching ranking 18th in the league in Bullpen FIP while Arizona is dead last at 30th. Gonna grab the home team at a short price.
Pittsburgh -122 – 2 stars
August 23rd MLB Pick
*MLB(1u): Royals F5 TT OVER 1.5(-115) @ Astros–7:10 PM CT
Unlike other teams who find themselves outside of playoff contention, the Royals seem to be playing with a lot of effort in hopes of building towards next season. They took 3 out of 4 from the Astros just last week and enter tonight’s matchup riding high off a 3 game sweep against the Cubs. In that 7 game span, the offense is averaging 5 runs/game, meaning they should feel good entering tonight’s matchup with Zack Greinke. The simple reality is that Greinke has pitched subpar baseball at home this season; in 13 starts at Minute Maid Park this season, Greinke holds a 4.58 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 1.6 HR/9. His FIP is also nearly a full run higher than his ERA, meaning his 3.43 ERA is a bit deceiving. I don’t think 2 runs through the first 5 innings is too much to ask from a streaking Royals team, and with rookie Daniel Lynch taking the hill, the Royals could need a heavy offensive performance to hang with the Astros tonight. Greinke has a large enough sample size at home where I feel comfortable going against him tonight.
MLB Monday Free Picks – Check Marco
Well we finished up a solid winning week. 15-10-1 overall 9 Units to the good side. Free picks only 2-4-1, I’ll try and get those turned around. Interested in all the plays hit me up on Twitter @TheGreatKnoche.
Short slate of 7 games today, but there is still some value out there. I am looking at the Mariners and Athletics. Starting with the A’s, they are throwing Paul Blackburn who just threw his first game in the majors this year last week. He has a career 5.66 ERA in the majors with a brutal 4.63 K/9. A’s bats have really been struggling as they are averaging 2.7 runs per game in their last 7 games. Against LHP they are currently sitting at 20th in MLB in OPS at .726. Playing the Giants lefty Alex Wood on Friday they did manage to earn a victory, but only managed 2 runs over 5 innings and struck out 9 times. I think all that bodes well for Mariners starter Marco Gonzales. He is currently sitting on a 4.10 ERA for the year, he is riding a little lucky streak with a high LOB% and low BABIP. However, what I really like is how he has pitched the last 7 starts. He’s 4-0 with a stellar 1.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 3:1 KK/BB ratio. Included in that stretch was a 5.2 IP 2 ER outing Win vs these same Oakland A’s. I don’t have a ton of faith in the Mariners bullpen outside of Sewald, so I am going to make this a First 5 play. Mariners F5 +112 for 1.5 units
5 College Football Season Win Total Picks
These win totals apply only to the regular season. Last year, I managed to go 5-1 on my CFB season win total predictions.
*Kansas State OVER 5.5 Wins(-135)
–After winning outright on the road against Oklahoma as 28 point dogs last season, the stock of Kansas State football seemed to be on the rise. Unfortunately, a season-ending injury to starting QB Skylar Thompson threw a wrench in the Wildcats season, as K-State went on to lose their last 5 games of the season. However, Thompson(30 career starts) is healthy and back in the fold, and he’ll share the backfield with superstar RB Deuce Vaughn, who averaged over 100 yards from scrimmage per game as a true freshman. Considering the OL is expecting significant improvement this season, it isn’t hard to see why Vaughn is being pegged as one of the best backs in CFB. The one concern for K-State is whether or not they’ll be able to replace the production they lost on the defensive side of the ball. Some struggles in the front 7 could present issues early, but they can take relief in what should be one of the better secondaries in the conference. They could be at risk of dropping a non-conference game to either Nevada or Stanford, but I have them ranked comfortably ahead of Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor entering the season. Assuming they drop one of the aforementioned games, all we would need is for them to beat one of: West Virginia, TCU, or Texas. Chris Kleiman is a proven winner, having built up North Dakota State into a powerhouse at the FCS level. I’m willing to bet that Kleiman pushes the right buttons to get this team playing relevant games in the month of November. If that’s the case, then this bet will cash with ease.
*Louisville UNDER 6.5 Wins(-130)
–Scott Satterfield did about all he could to signal he wanted out of Louisville last season when his name was being floated around the South Carolina job opening. The fans certainly didn’t appreciate that, and I can’t imagine the players have much trust in Satterfield. Adding on to his list of problems, Satterfield now has to replace the production of his top 2 WR’s from a year ago. While QB Malik Cunningham is plenty capable, he’s struggled with turnovers in the past, even with NFL-caliber WR’s to work with. The Cardinals offensive line is filled with question marks entering the season, something you don’t want to hear if your skill positions aren’t ironed out and your QB struggles with turnovers. While their front 7 should be solid, the Louisville secondary could be in for a rocky campaign, as they must replace 3 starters from last year’s team. Considering they’ll face 4 teams who expect to beat teams mostly through the air(Ole Miss, UCF, Boston College, and Clemson), that could create some serious issues throughout the course of the season. From my estimation, Louisville has only 3 wins locked up with Eastern Kentucky, Duke, and Syracuse on their schedule. Aside from that, they won’t find an easy time winning any of those other 9 games. The ACC always has a ton or parity to start with, and many of Louisville’s opponents don’t have the added hurdle of abandonment from their head coach. If Louisville couldn’t piece together wins with the talent on last year’s roster, I have a hard time seeing them make a bowl game this go-round.
*Northwestern OVER 6.5 Wins(-115)
–The Wildcats made significant strides last season after a 3 win 2019 season, winning the Big 10 West and playing Ohio State tough in the Big 10 title. While QB Peyton Ramsay graduated, Pat Fitzgerald could have the most talented QB he’s ever coached leading the offense this season. Hunter Johnson has had quite the journey to this point; he was a widely heralded 5 star recruit who went to Clemson for a year(some guy named Lawrence wasn’t going to give up that job) before finding a landing spot at Northwestern. He is now entering his 5th college season as the undoubted QB1; at worst, I think he’ll be the replacement level QB Northwestern has grown accustomed to over the years. He will share the backfield with a steady RB tandem that found their groove towards the end of last season and has the luxury of playing behind one of the best OL’s in CFB. Even with a new defensive coordinator, this Wildcats defense expects to take on the personality of their head coach and be the identity of this team. Northwestern draws an easy non-conference schedule with Duke as their hardest draw, and they should be favorites in their first 6 games. While their schedule gets tougher in the back-half of the season, they close out with 2 easily winnable games against Purdue and Illinois. When this team squares off with Wisconsin in Week 11, I expect the result of that game to have major implications for the Big 10 West. I see Northwestern as an 8-4 football team entering this season with the potential of a double-digit win season if Hunter Johnson can live up to his potential.
*Baylor UNDER 5.5 Wins(-120)
–I’ve been fairly adamant about the fact that Baylor’s 2019 Sugar Bowl team probably should’ve been a 7 or 8 win football team. In other words, I look at that as a one-off year and not a sign of what’s to come. After Matt Rhule left for the NFL, they brought in Dave Aranda to keep the good times rolling. Not surprisingly, the Bears stumbled to a 2-7 campaign in 2020, and now, they are left without a reliable QB and will face depth issues at many key positions. Whether it be Gary Bohanon or Jacob Zeno that starts at QB, neither provides the level of consistency needed for this team to make a bowl game. I’m even more convicted to say that considering they will be working under 1st year OC Jeff Grimes. The defense has some experience to work with, but the talent is nowhere near where it was just 2 seasons ago. I truly think the Bears are on upset watch week 1 when they travel to San Marcos to take on Texas State, who’s led by offensive savant Jake Spavital. They’ll beat Kansas and Texas Southern, but when looking at the rest of the Big 12, I’m not sure they can find a way to win multiple games against the rest of the field. Baylor is a losing program historically, and I think they will continue to regress this season as much of the Big 12 looks to improve.
*Navy OVER 3.5 Wins(-120)
–Navy had a turbulent 3-7 2020 season, but considering they weren’t even tackling during training camp last year, it’s not hard to see why they were a step behind. With the COVID year past them and a normal offseason of practice, I expect a much more efficient Navy group this season. The triple-option creates a real challenge for the opposition, and that’s especially true in a conference like the American where defensive efficiency is not the strong suit. Ken Niumatalolo faced a similar situation in 2019 coming off a 3 win season; his Midshipmen responded with an 11 win season. All things considered, it shouldn’t be too difficult for Navy to see a 1 game improvement this season.
MLB Total Play- ARI @ COL 8.22
Today we have another situation where a large majority of money is on the OV 11.5 in this third game of the series between ARI/ COL. Understandably so in the mile high city. Looking at Rockies starter Jon Gray, he has given up some runs as of late but like a lot of the COL’s staff, has pitched better at home. After a few poor outings, ARI’s pitcher Taylor Widener’s L2 outings were solid against PHI and at SD.
What’s surprising about the Rockies at home is- on the season they are 56.5% to the UN. As a home favorite, they’re 58.6% to the UN, and in division games they are 55% to the UN. Not a remarkable trend, but clearly a few leans to the under. What’s scary about this game is the score is always capable of taking off in Denver, and both teams can score. That’s why I’ll keep this play small, and I don’t want to get these bullpens involved either. With F5 set a half run higher than the full game, I’ll take the bait here and make a play to F5 Under 6 (+100). Because Widener has pitched better than Gray in his L2 against solid hitting squads, I also took ARI F5 +1/2 (+117), expecting them to keep it close to try and steal one game of the series from COL.
ARI/ COL F5 UN 6 (+100) 1u/ ARI F5 +1/2 (+117) 1u
MLB Picks and Predictions – August 22, 2021
T ‘was a decent Saturday (we hit at .500 in premium picks, 1-1 in MLB) but we had some disappointing results in UFC (thanks long-legged Malecki) and the NFL Preseason (if I’m a Cowboys fan, I’m concerned). Be that as it may, we move on with shorter MLB articles but the same quality in analysis– we’re 21-12 in MLB over the last 2 weeks.
Marlins/Reds under 9 (-110), 1.5 units: This handicap is pretty simple. We have an arm we trust in Sandy Alcantara (3.47 xERA, 0.89 HR/9 innings, 3.69 FIP over 151.1 innings), one we’ve relied on and trusted all season, and a Marlins team that’s inconsistent and cold behind home plate. Vladimir Gutierrez has mostly seen success and has mostly produced solid numbers, too. The under is 42-20-3 in Reds last 65 vs. National League East– I’m taking it.
Rockies -1.5 (-105), 2 units: Why not? The Rockies are 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter and in 7 out of their 15 games against Arizona this year, they’ve won by 2 or more runs (and they won 9/15 of those contests, by the way). We also have two rather evenly matched pitchers on the mound, although by the numbers you’d have to favor Colorado’s starter in Jon Gray, and we all know the way Arizona plays on the road. I’m on the Rockies showing out on offense yet again and sending the Diamondbacks home with more to cry about.
August 21st MLB Pick
*MLB(1u): Braves TT OVER 5.5(-130) @ Orioles–6:05 PM CT
The Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, sitting at 14-3 in the month of August. With the addition of 3 solid outfield pieces at the deadline(Pederson, Soler, Duvall), this lineup is finally starting to find their rhythm. They’ve scored double-digit runs twice in their last 4 games, and they should have every opportunity to do it again tonight. Matt Harvey is one of the worst SP’s in MLB; while he found some success at the end of July, his first 3 starts of August indicate he has lost whatever mojo he had found. Pitching at Camden Yards this season, Harvey holds a 6.60 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 1.7 HR/9. To make matters worse, the Orioles bullpen finds themselves at the bottom of nearly every pitching statistic you look at. The Braves are hot right now, and considering they are guaranteed to get 27 outs to work with tonight, I feel good about their chances of crossing the 6 run barrier against this wretched Orioles pitching staff.
NFL – Full Season Preview Part 3 – NFC North/East
We have now reached the second full weekend of Pre-Season which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 5 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures there. I have gone through the entire schedule, game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top 5 plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
NFC North – Well, Aaron Rodgers, also known as Brett Favre 2.0 is back. The Packers rolled in this division last year winning it by 5 games and earning the #1 seed in the NFC. They’ve assembled the best group of skill players surrounding Rodgers in the last 10 years. Departure of center Corey Linsley could shake things up on the line, but the defense returns mostly intact for the team with the 2nd largest point differential in 2020 and they should once again be the class of this division. Minnesota struggled out of the gate and defensively all year in 2020 finishing 7-9. With Kirk Cousins at the helm nothing is guaranteed, but they do have one of the best 1-2 combos at WR with Thielen and Jefferson. The Vikings didn’t do much to improve in the off-season, but did add Patrick Peterson to add some leadership on defense where they were the 2nd worst in the NFC in 2020. I can’t see the defense playing any worse than it did last year, so slight improvement is likely, but still see this team being right around .500. The Bears fans around the world heard Justin Fields and announced the Super Bowl was theirs this year. Heard the same thing with Mitchell Trubisky. The defense is good enough where it could get them there, but with 2 journeymen QBs and Fields I don’t see much improvement on offense unless Fields gets in early and really is the missing piece. He probably needs to be for them to move forward as the offensive line is brutal and a mobile QB gives them a much better chance at success. What can you say about the Lions? Well once again they have a new head coach. They traded away Matt Stafford after 12 years and look to Jared Goff. The team certainly appears to still be in its constant state of rebuilding. It’s not a leap to say the defense will play better, but wins look few and far between on this schedule. The NFC North gets the NFC West and AFC North as common opponents.
Green Bay 11-6
Minnesota 9-8
Chicago 7-10
Detroit 4-13
NFC East – Well, what was the worst division in football last year is back again for another shot at that title. Some people are seeing some improvement here. I beg to differ. The Washington Football Team had a top 5 defense in efficiency last year and was 4th overall in points allowed. Their defensive line is the best in football. While I’d like to think the addition of Fitzmagic and his beard along with Curtis Samuel and the returning McLaurin give them a valid threat on offense, I find it tough to believe a guy with a 59-86-1 record as a start leads them anywhere close to a dominant season. The Dallas Cowboys get Dak back after posting a 6-10 season without him. His return should give their offense much more prowess than it had in 2020. They should be a top offense in the league with top contributors at all skill positions and a decent O-Line. On defense many people are predicting a big turn around with the hiring of Dan Quinn, but not me. The team is still brutal in the secondary. Micah Parsons has a lot of hype coming in and should make plays all over the field. The D-line is serviceable, but hardly elite. They’re gonna have to win shootouts. The New York football Giants enter Joe Judge season 2 hoping to turn things around on the offensive side of the ball. Getting Saquon Barkley back should help, as will getting Kenny Golladay and drafting Karadius Toney. On defense they have solid play at all three levels and I could see them finishing well inside the top 10 for defensive efficiency this year. The Eagles are now Jalen Hurts’ team. You remember him, the guy who Tua replaced in the NCAA title game a few years back. This is a roster in flux along with the coaching staff with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. There’s just a lot of unknown with this team and I see them finishing poorly because of that. This division will come down to who wins in December as Washington finishes with 5 straight game in division, Dallas and New York play 4 of their final 5 in division and Philly has 3/5. The NFC East common opponents are brutal with the NFC South and AFC West
Washington 8-9
Dallas 7-10
New York 7-10
Philadelphia 5-12
Free Picks:
Team Total Win Bet Free Pick: Dallas Cowboys Team Total under 9.5 -110. This is my number 4 Team total win play. Many people are picking Dallas to win this division and win 10 or 11 games, but Vegas set this line here for a reason and it’s their defense and the brutal common opponents schedule for the NFC East. Opponents are going to be in every game no matter how many points they score. I think Dallas would have to go 6-0 in the division to get to 10 wins, and it’s just not going to happen.
NFL Week 2 Preseason Saturday Super Plays
Atlanta vs Miami -6 O/U 36
Wow did Atlanta look bad in their last preseason game. I almost felt sorry for them as the Titans pretty much did what they want. Let’s face it, the position group is pretty settled on offense with Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Mike Davis and their shiny new toy in Kyle Pitts. What hasn’t been settled is that defense and players will be very motivated to get into the rotation in the secondary as well as the defensive line. The Dolphins last week faced some embarrassment themselves vs the Chicago Bears. I can see Tua making some nice first half plays but in all honesty, this is a defensive oriented team and I think that they will have a better 2nd half. Unders are 3-0 in preseason week 2 so far because teams are being more vanilla in their play calling. Let’s take a shot at the under
Under 36 – 1.5 stars
Houston vs Dallas -3.5 O/U 36.5
Dallas hasn’t showed well this preseason at 0-2 and this team needs a spark. Mike McCarthy will not be playing Dak Prescott today but there is plenty of competition at backup between DiNucci, Rush and Gilbert. Houston won their first pre-season contest vs the Packers and now it is time for them to bring in their scrubs to find out who is making the team. Believe it or not, the Cowboys might be motivated here to reinforce their dominance in the wonderful state of Texas. This spread is a little high for my liking in the preseason but I think that there is some value in the derivative market. I can see Big D with a big first half. Mike McCarthy is 10-3 in preseason week 2. Take the Cowgirls.
Dallas 1st half -2 – 1.5 stars
