It was nice taking a day off yesterday (although I didn’t totally take a day off, just ask my premium customers), but now I’m back and I’m back with a vengeance! I have free picks in UFC, MLB, and NFL Preseason for your big Saturday slate– enjoy!
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Seahawks +5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Seattle defense has a lot to prove and a lot to improve on this year, while the Broncos have, let’s face it, one of the more questionable QB situations in the NFL. While they try to figure that out, this line is heavily favoring Denver under the premise that they’ll do more to win this game because of their lack of offensive prowess. I get that, but the Seahawks are at home and full of young untapped potential on their roster. Not only that but it goes without say– 5.5 is a ton of points for an exhibition game. I’ll ride the dog here.
Cowboys -3.5 (-110), 2 units: One of the most shallow rosters in the NFL squares up against one of the most talented offenses in the NFL Saturday in the battle of Texas. I know– Dak won’t play and I’m sure Dallas will rest plenty of their starters for plenty of this game– but the Cowboys need something to feel positive about right now. With injury concerns looming over Dak’s 2021 season and a coach in Mike McCarthy that clearly doesn’t have the influence over his team that he wants (even the over-production of Hard Knocks can’t hide that), I think the Cowboys will put in more considerable effort in this contest. The line is daring us to take the ‘Boys and I’ll follow suit.
Giants/Athletics No Run in First Inning (-130), 1.3 units: Sean Manaea (3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 133.2 innings) has had his fair share of challenges this year but the inconsistent Athletics’ offense needs him and other starters to hold the team on their shoulders. The most recent versions of Manaea, one that’s allowed 15 runs in his last 3 starts in just over 11 innings, isn’t someone you’d want to bet an NRFI or under on. I think this is a good spot for some positive regression, though. He still maintains an xERA and xFIP under 4.00 and in April, June and July he had an 2.42 average ERA. He’s also facing a San Francisco lineup that’s gone cold the last week, ranking in the bottom 3rd in nearly all major offensive categories. I don’t know if he’ll hold up this whole game but at home, against the Giants’ ace in Kevin Gausman, I like the first inning to go scoreless.
Diamondbacks/Rockies under 11.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units: I’m going against the grain in this one and betting on the under. Zac Gallen and Kyle Freeland both have shaky games from time to time but they’re better than some of the numbers indicate. Each thrower still maintain an xERA right at the 4.00 mark and while an explosion of offense is always a concern at Coors Field, the under is 10-3 in Rockies last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter. I’ll take a great number and an even better value at even money.
UFC Parlay- Kelleher, Malecki, and Madsen (1 unit to win 3.07 units): It’s rare that I promote a parlay here but just like a lot of solo sports, there’s opportunity to make considerable money when you can parlay multiple favorites at a good number. The hitting power of Kelleher, the size advantage and kicks of Malecki, and the superior ground game of Madsen give all these fighters significant advantages in their bouts today. While upsets are always possible in the fight-game, I like all of these favorites for over +300 value. Do a little research on these warriors and I think you’ll agree.
After digging into these two teams, wow, are they similar. Every game is a must win for both teams pretty much from here on out as the postseason race is heating up. SF’s Gausman has been getting back to form after a post-All-Star break regression while OAK’s Manaea has not looked good in his L3 outings, giving up ER’s of 7/3/5 respectively. SF ranks 11th in BA vs LHP while OAK ranks 23rd vs RHP according to Fangraphs. There’s a few reasons to like SF in this matchup.
On top of Manaea’s disappointing recent outings, SF is the 3rd best road team, the best in team in MLB off a loss, and also owns the best RL record in baseball. What worries me is Manaea has faced this lineup earlier in the season and did well. Not to mention OAK is the 6th best home team in baseball. That had me looking at the under in this game. But with Manaea getting blasted lately and a heavy majority of the bets/ money on it, that scares me off a full play to the under. This late in the season, the trends are your friends. I can’t deny that we have a good road team, best off a loss, in a heated rivalry with one of their aces on the mound. I have to respect the numbers here, and they’re telling me SF is the right side and to hit the SF RL -1.5. Being a cross town rivalry, I’m looking to split the bets just in case OAK doesn’t go down easy at home.
Saturday card has a 6* NFLX Play from an 18-1 system and two 5* plays from a 27-4 Angle. There is an MLB Platinum Supreme move , MLB 7* Cashed big on Friday, we also have CFL And EPL Soccer. NFL Afternoon Comp play below.
On Saturday the NFLX Comp play is on Green Bay at 4:25 eastern. The Packers fit a nice Preseason system that plays on teams that are off a loss in game 2 vs a team off a win. These teams are hitting over 75% long term. The Packers will look to bounce back after getting beat good here bu Houston, while the Jets are off a win over the Giants. The Jets may be a bit cautious with top players and just lost one of their top defensive players last week. Both teams practiced together this week. Green Bay has covered 7 of 10 in week 2 while the Jets have dropped 3 of 4 in week 2. Both teams had shoddy Qb play last week. Expect the Packers to get the cover in a lower scoring game. On Saturday another huge card is up with 3 NFLX Preseason games one is a rare 6*. There is an MLB Platinum Supreme Headlining MLB, 7* cashed big last night. There is a big CFL Total and Top Level English Premier League Total. Contact at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on and cash out tonight. For the NFL Comp play. Go with Green Bay. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
The Lake Placid is carded as Race 9 and the Alabama is carded as Race 10 on Saturday’s 11-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 1:05 p.m. EDT. All races can be seen on FS2 “Saratoga Live” from 1:00 pm to 7:00 pm ET.
Lake Placid
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
ILLIOGAMI enters this race off a fifth place finish in the G2 Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont. This was the first stakes race of her career, and she had a bad trip being forced five wide down the stretch. Prior to that race, she won her last two out running some solid speed figures.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS won the G3 Lake George Stakes in her last start just a little under a month ago at Saratoga. In that race, she beat fellow entrant RUNAWAY RUMOUR who ended up finishing fourth. The race prior she finished sixth in the G3 Wonder Again Stakes where she had no kick down the stretch.
EGO TRIP has only raced twice in her career, finishing second in both races. This will be the first stakes race that she has entered. In her last race, a MSW at Saratoga in July, she had an awkward start but, still closed well which is encouraging.
RUNAWAY RUMOUR didn’t have a great trip out her last race finishing fourth in the G3 Lake George Stakes. Prior to that race, she had won her all three starts in career.
LOVESTRUCK is an interesting horse to try and predict based off her past performances. She won the first two races of her career, a MSW and the Tepin Stakes. However, in her last outing she finished dead last (eighth) where she weakened down the stretch. She hasn’t shown the speed some of these other fillies have so I’m not sure how much of a shot she has in this race.
SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR has the most experience in graded stakes races out of any other horse in the field. However, in all six graded stakes she’s run in, she has yet to find the winners circle. She enters this race, off an eighth place finish in the G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes. In that race, she ran a solid speed figure so we’ll see if she can build off that and capture her first graded stakes win here.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Technical Analysis, Spanish Loveaffair
Stalk/ Off the Pace: Love Struck
Closer(s): Illiogami, Ego Trip, Runaway Rumour
This race has taken up more of my time than I would like to admit. The #4 and #6 both have new jockeys aboard but, have raced extremely well this year. I’m not sure the degree it will affect either horse but it’s something to consider. If the #2 gets his ideal trip, he will win this race, there’s no doubting that. However, I’m not sure he will in this loaded field. The one horse that keeps sticking out to me is the #1 horse. He hasn’t necessarily shown the speed needed to compete in this race but his last out intrigues me. He faced some much steeper competition in the G2 Mother Goose (Clairiere, Always Carina, Zaajel, Make Mischief) and ran 5th after being bumped on the turn. I’m not saying he has a shot but he could run 2/3 in this race and shock everyone.
Picks:
WIN: #6 SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR
EXACTA BOX: 2, 4, 6
In this race, I like the #6 Spanish Loveaffair based on the speed she’s shown as of late. In the G3 Regret and G2 Appalachian she had bad trips. Ricardo Santana gets the mount here and hopefully he can get her out of the gate.
Alabama
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: I
Race: 10
Post Time: 6:13 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Miles
Purse: $600,000
Division: Fillies | 3 Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers
Field:
Crazy Beautiful (Jose Ortiz), 6-1
Will’s Secret (Jon Court), 15-1
Clairiere (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 6-1
Maracuja (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 7-2
Played Hard (Luis Saez), 15-1
Malathatt (John Velazquez), 1-1
Army Wife (Tyler Gaffalione), 6-1
Horse Preview:
CRAZY BEAUTIFUL enters this race on a hot streak winning her last two starts. In her last out, she won the G3 Delaware Oaks and prior to that, won the G2 Summertime Oaks. She ran in the G1 Kentucky Oaks earlier this year and finished tenth. Her best finish in a G1 race comes back in October of 2020, where she finished second in the G1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes. She’s ran her best two speed figures in her last two races, so we’ll see if she can continue to trend upward.
WILLS SECRET comes into the G1 Alabama off a disappointing finish in the G3 Indiana Oaks, where she finished sixth. In that race, she faltered down the stretch. Prior to that, she finished third in her last two outings; the G1 Kentucky Oaks and G1 Ashland Stakes. She has shown she has the speed to compete but needs a better performance here than her last outing.
CLAIRIERE could be the horse to beat in this race and has the speed to win this race. She took third in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks. In that race, fellow entrants MARACUJA and MALATHATT ran one-two. Prior to that race, the G2 Mother Goose, she stumbled and took third. She’s ran some pretty impressive speed figures her last two times out but will need to hope for a better performance to beat MARACUJA and MALATHATT.
MARACUJA is coming off the best performance of her career where she won the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks. She rebounded in that race after a disappointing seventh place finish in the G1 Kentucky Oaks, where MALATHATT won. We’ll see if she has what it takes to win back to back races vs her rival. She seemed to have preferred running out front in her last race, so I’m guessing jockey Ricardo Santana will try and do the same here.
PLAYED HARD is a horse that I don’t want to say has no shot, unless every other horse is disqualified but…, it would be a fair take. This will be her stakes race that she’s entered into and faces some of the best three year old fillies. She’s raced in five career races, winning her last two races, an Allowance and a MSW. In both of those races, she ran decent speed figures but not close to what’s needed to win here. She’ll need the trip of her life here if she wants to win. She’s going to try and push the pace but, will be caught down the stretch by some of these other horses. Her main role in this race, is to cause chaos and try to get some of these other horses to chase her early.
MALATHATT was undefeated until her last race out where MARACUJA defeated her in the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks. She’ll be the favorite in this race and deservedly so. She has two Grade 1 stakes wins to her name and has defeated most of the other entrants in a race prior. In her last race, she was forced out to the lead which was probably a bit unnatural for her as she likes to hang off the pace. I’m sure Johnny V will try and hold her back a bit and not let her go out with PLAYED HARD and MARACUJA on the pace.
ARMY WIFE comes into the G1 Alabama with two graded stakes wins in her last two races. In her most recent start, she won the G3 Iowa Oaks and prior to that, won the G2 George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. In her last outing, she showed some speed which she’ll need to build on, in order to compete in this race. This is will be the first G1 stakes race that she has entered in.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Maracuja, Played Hard
Stalk/ Off the Pace: Crazy Beautiful, Will’s Secret, Clairiere, Malathatt, Army Wife
Closer(s):
Picks:
In this race, the easy play would be to pick the #6 Malathatt, going off a 1-1. Yes, he probably will win this race but, I’m not going to give you that pick. I like to try and beat the favorites, that’s the type of handicapper I am.
WIN: #7 ARMY WIFE
EXACTA BOX: 4, 6, 7
This will no doubt be one of the best Stakes races of 2021. It is an absolutely loaded field with Clairiere, Maracuja, Malathatt, and Army Wife all having a shot to win.
Army Wife is coming off two graded stakes wins. Her pedigree and previous races have shown that this is a manageable distance. I doubt Maracuja will get the perfect trip she had last time, so I don’t like her to win here. Army Wife held off the pace in the G3 Iowa Oaks and dominated the field coming down the stretch. If she can hang with the #4 and #6 headed into the stretch I’ll say she has a pretty good shot. It all depends on the pace set and if Johnny V pushes Malathatt early to try and avoid a late push. The only reason I’m not including the #3 is that she showed last ride that she couldn’t hang with them in the closing furlongs.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I’ve always had a soft spot for East Carolina, with one of the coolest logos and color schemes in the college landscape… But this isn’t that weird fashion segment at the end of Sportscenter with the guy in the Capri’s! East Carolina comes into the season with TWENTY returning starters. This team will be improved for sure and the returning experience is the ONLY reason I can see why this line is juiced to the over.
The American Conference’s annual push for national legitimacy is elevating the play of all it’s members. But when I look at ECU’s 3 wins from last year, let’s not forget those were against teams that were going through pretty bad COVID issues at the time (USF/ Temple/ SMU). This year, outside of their tough conference schedule, they’re going to be facing APP ST/ S. Carolina/ Marshall. Uff-da! ECU could surprise me and get to 5 wins, but I don’t see any more than that. This one may not be plus money for long, so I’ve already JUMPED on this one!
I’ll be watching to see how they do against APP ST in Week 1 and if they have a decent showing (+10.5), I’ll also look to see how S. Carolina is doing as well for an opportunity to hedge my ECU future in their matchup the following week. I understand S. Carolina has a first year coach in a serious rebuild and many are very down on that program. But, with their SEC exposure, I have to expect they’ll benefit from the transfer portal. If S. Carolina performs poorly in their 1st game, I’ll be looking to take ECU ATS against them and be sprinkling the ML.
Full Friday slate of action coming up today. 1-1-1 on free plays this week. 5-4-1 overall. Looking to close out the weekend with another winning week. Here’s two plays for Friday. Hit me up @thegreatknoche on twitter if interested in all the plays.
Rangers @ Red Sox – Chris Sale takes the mound in his second start back from Tommy John surgery. He was very solid giving up 2 ER on 6 hits with 8 Ks over 5 IP. Very nice first trip back. Then again it was against the Orioles who are in the midst of a historic losing streak…more on that shortly. The Red Sox are 6-14 in their last 20 games (3-14 if you take out the Orioles series) and have not been playing great ball. The Rangers are an identical 6-14 in the last 20 games. They are sending Dane Dunning to the bump. He’s 5-7 with a 4.06 ERA. xFIP at 3.69. Since July 1st however he has a 2.74 ERA over 29 2/3 innings with opponents batting .202 against him. Rangers are averaging around 4 runs a game over last seven and I could see them getting a few runs across against Sale. The overall line on this game is sitting around +250, but I don’t really trust the Texas bullpen until they get to Barlow. I’m making a straight ROI play here, as I think Boston should be a favorite but not to this degree, There’s lots of value on this dog. Texas First 5 +240 1 Unit.
Atlanta @ Baltimore – The Braves travel to Camden Yards for interleague play today to kick off a 3 game set with the O’s. The Orioles are bad. I mean just plain awful. If you’ve been sleeping under a rock they have lost 15 games straight, and they are averaging 9.2 Runs against over those 15 games. Keegan Akin goes for Baltimore with his 8.13 ERA. He’s been bouncing between bullpen and starting for the O’s. He has given up 3 or more runs in every start since June 4th. Max Fried has been very good over the last four starts giving up only 4 ER over his last 25 innings. Those starts came against the Cards, Mets and 2 starts vs the Nats. Baltimore is in the bottom third in most offensive metrics so I don’t expect a bunch out of them, but the way their pitching has been they might only need 2 runs to put this over the top. Camden Yards is playing as the #8 home park for runs in park metrics and #1 for Home Runs. Atlanta has hit the third most home runs so that looks good for scoring. Finally One of the tools I use for judging if lines looks correct based on pitcher vs hitter matchups is the Streamonator on Razzball.com. Rudy Gamble has his models dialed in, though its mainly for fantasy streaming it translates very well when looking for value. It just thinks this start is okay for Fried with a $1.3 dollar value. Akin checks in with a -$17.7. I’ve got this matchup at 11.5 so there’s value in the Over 10, 1.5 Units
*MLB(1u): Tigers/Blue Jays OVER 9(-120)–6:07 PM CT
The Blue Jays are an easy offense to back, and that’s especially true considering the quality of pitching(or lack thereof) they’ll face tonight. Tigers SP Tyler Alexander has only recently joined the rotation and has not lasted more than 5.1 IP this season. With a 1.5 HR/9 and 1.31 WHIP, it’s hard to see him matching up well with this Blue Jays order. That creates a serious dilemma for the Tigers because their bullpen has been an absolute wreck. Just yesterday, they blew a 10-2 lead, allowing 11 unanswered runs to the Angels. It wouldn’t shock me if the Blue Jays score double digits themselves, but you can’t ignore the success that the Detroit lineup has had against lefties. Since July 1st, the Tigers are hitting an astounding .322 against left-handed pitching with 21 HR’s mixed in. Blue Jays SP Robbie Ray has had a great season, but his FIP(expected ERA) is almost a full run higher than his ERA, and his left-on-base percentage of 89.9% is unsustainable. The Blue Jays bullpen has also had it’s struggles and is becoming untrustable in their own right. There are too many likely scenarios in which this game goes Over for me to not get involved.
The Astros come into tonight’s game losing 4 of their last 5 and having 0 days rest after returning from a 7 game road trip. Safe to say, the Astros aren’t in great current form entering this important series. The Mariners, on the other hand, have won 7 of their last 8 and are coming off a series sweep in Arlington. They’ll send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound looking to shut down an Astros lineup he’s very familiar with. I was surprised to see that since July 1st, the Astros are hitting just .217 against lefties at Minute Maid Park. I know batting average is not the most important stat, but it’s still a telling figure considering the perception around the Astros lineup. Kikuchi has pitched better on the road than he has at home, and just earlier this season, he tossed a 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER performance at Minute Maid Park. Astros SP Lance McCullers has phenomenal stuff but continues to struggle with surrendering free passes(4.3 BB/9 this season). The Mariners touched up McCullers for 4 ER in their last meeting with them, and they’re an offense that is gritty and is not going to give at-bats away. I see tremendous value in playing the Mariners F5 at this number. I’m laying off the full game because the M’s had to use their bullpen a ton in their previous series with the Rangers and don’t figure to be at full strength tonight.
*MLB(1u): Giants ML(-117) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
While this could be classified as a “toss up” game, the Giants are the better team across the board. This is basically a home game for SFG considering they’ll enjoy the same Bay Area conditions they’ve excelled in all year. Beyond that, they have the edge in a few key areas tonight. Giants SP Alex Wood has pitched well in the Bay Area this season(1.12 WHIP) and will face an A’s lineup that is only mediocre against left-handed pitching. He’s also a veteran who’s accustomed to pitching in meaningful games late in the season. A’s SP James Kaprilean, on the other hand, is a rookie who has shown signs of regression as of late. In his last 3 starts(2 coming against the lowly Rangers), has struck out just 10 batters in 15.2 IP while also allowing 18 hits. The Giants mash right-handed pitching as it is, and it will only help that they’ll get to use a DH as an extra bat in this AL ballpark. The Giants are coming off a day of rest, while the A’s come back home tonight following a 10 game road trip with zero days rest to regroup. Their bullpen was stretched out in their series against the White Sox, putting them at a disadvantage against a Giants bullpen that has the lowest bullpen WHIP in baseball(1.08). The Giants are the play tonight.
On Friday the 2021 Highest Rated 7* MLB Game of the Year Headlines and is backed with a Big Blowout system and Several Perfect Indicators. There is Also the NFLX Friday night Hot side with a week 2 Power system. MLS Soccer Comp Play Below.
The MLS Soccer Comp Play is on the LA. Galaxy at 10:30 eastern. LA has won both meetings against San Jose this season and will look to end the 9 game unbeaten streak that The Quakes currently enjoy. LA Sits in 3rd place in the West and will be motivated coming off a home loss to Colorado last out. San Jose struggles to score but plays well on defense. LA Dominates the ball possession and should get some solid scoring chances here. Look for the Galaxy to get the win. On Friday the 2021 7* MLB Game Of The Year headlines the card which also has a Powerful Week 2 NFLX Friday night Hot Side system. See us on facebook or at goldencontender@aol.com to Jump on as we start the weekend off fast. For the MLS Comp Play. Go with the LA. Galaxy. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Thursday the 49-5 National League Game Of the Month and an Exclusive Week 2 Specific NFLX Play headlines. See us at goldencontender@aol.com and get both at no cost. CFL Play below.
The CFL Double System side is on the Edmonton Elks.+4 Game 671 at 10:00 eastern. Expect a big effort here from the Elks who do not want to fall to 0-3 after a pair of home losses. BC is off an upset win and these factors set up a pair of Powerful systems. One pertains to winless dogs in week 3 or later, the other a Play against system pertaining to Home favorites from -3 to -10 in early season games. Edmonton has a Top LeveL defense allowing just 246 yards per game. Look for the Elks to get the cover. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
