1-1 on Free Picks this week and 4-4 overall on MLB. Quick early game play here. Orioles are in midst of historic losing streak and ERA in August floating around 9. El Pichu Lopez takes the hill with his 6.14 ERA against the Rays. They have played each other 6 times in last two weeks and the Rays lowest offensive output has been 8 runs. I think it happens again. Hoping for 1 or 2 from the Os and the rest is gravy. Over 9 1.5 units.
MLB Picks and Predictions – August 19, 2021
We continue to march on over these past 2 weeks with more wins than losses, going 2-1 last night and 20-10 over the last 14 days. Onto that thirrrsty Thursday!
Athletics/White Sox under 9 (-110), 1.5 units: The Athletics still stand 2 games behind the Astros in the AL West and they need some major help on the mound if they’re going to have a shot at surpassing their rival. This is a play on Cole Irvin for sure but it’s even more of a play against the struggling Oakland bats. In their last 4 games, Oakland has only scored a combined 6 points. Is positive regression imminent? Probably. But I also think Dylan Cease brings enough experience and command to give the A’s offense more issues today. Cease has above-average numbers overall, including a HR allowance right around that 1 HR/9 innings mark (1.01) and xERA/xFIP marks below 4.00. Still developing as an elite thrower, Cease rarely allows more than 3 runs in a contest and Cole Irvin is due for a better game after a lackluster showing against the Rangers in his last start. The under is 6-1-1 in Athletics last 8 vs. American League Central– I’ll take it.
Brewers -1.5 (120), 1.2 units: This is a yet another fade of the very fade-able Jon Lester and at this point in the season, “IYKYK” and if you don’t know, I don’t know what to tell you. Lester vs. Woodruff is like an aged Hulk Hogan taking on the Rock 19 years ago at WrestleMania. It ain’t fair. Except, Lester never had the prowess of the legendary Hulkster and of course this an actual sport, not a show. Still, we love to fade Lester. After a late-game comeback yesterday, I expect Milwaukee’s redemptive energy to carry over into today’s matchup. St. Louis is good when they can control the game with their superb defense and schematic pitching, but that won’t be on their side today. The Brewers have won 5 of their 8 games against the Cardinals this year and every one of them have been by margin. I expect another one tonight. Take Milwaukee’s run-line.
Podcast 54 – 21 – With “The Bear” Chris Fallica and Ralph Michaels – College Football Conference Preview, Futures and Win Totals – UFC – Sports Betting
We have a massive show for you today! Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica from ESPN’s college game day and Ralph Michaels @CalSportsLV from Wagertalk is back to preview all 10 of the FBS college football conferences as well as some futures, season win totals, and week 1 best bets! In this show, the Bear hunts down some easy pray when it comes to fading the little sisters of the poor while Ralph dazzles us with his amazing metrics, quick information and systems. All three guys have some nice + money future bets for the year that could turn into some really nice paydays piggy backed with some sound season win totals to boot. At the end of our show, the guys give out some BEST BETS for College Football Week 1 and Kiev gives out a UFC on ESPN free play for some MMA action this coming weekend.
Check out Footballcontest.com to get into the huge Las Vegas NFL contests this year and please be sure to tell them that The OddsBreakers sent you.
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August 18th MLB Picks
August Record: 12-11-4, +0.26u
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+130) vs Mets–2:45 PM CT
The Mets find themselves in the midst of an untimely 5 game skid; it’s gotten so bad that Mets owner Steve Cohen decided to call out the whole offense via Twitter this morning. While the Mets are bound to turn things around, I don’t think today’s the day they’ll do it. Giants SP Anthony DeSclafani has been steady for the Giants all season and got back on track in his last start after a brief rough patch. The Giants bullpen boasts the lowest WHIP of any bullpen in baseball(1.09), something that is crucial for me to lay runs with a team. The Giants might cough up a few runs today, but their offense is poised for a big day facing Mets SP Tylor Megill. Megill has had a solid rookie campaign, but his road ERA is almost 2.5 runs higher than his home ERA. Moreover, I don’t think he’s capable of handling the pressure that this start presents. By plunging offensively, the Mets have put a tremendous amount of pressure on their pitching to carry the load. You won’t find a team that hits righties better at home than San Francisco, so to ask a rookie to lead the way is not a recipe for success. The Mets bullpen isn’t horrible, but they are certainly prone to disastrous outings. This play seems too easy(especially at this price), but the Mets have given bettors no reason to trust them as of late. I like the Giants to complete the sweep in convincing fashion this afternoon.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays -1.5(-105) @ Nationals–3:05 PM CT
The Nationals took down the Blue Jays last night to win just their 3rd game in the month of August. Aside from Juan Soto and Josh Bell, this lineup is filled with guys who are better suited for the minor leagues. Blue Jays SP Jose Berrios has a clear path to a dominant outing today. Nationals Park tends to favor the pitchers, and Berrios has managed to consistently flourish in much harder matchups than he’ll have tonight. Remember, the Blue Jays paid a hefty price for Berrios at the deadline; considering how hit-or-miss the Jays pitching staff has been this season, a steady piece like Berrios should greatly benefit Toronto. Nats SP Josiah Gray figures to have a bright future, but in his 5 appearances this season, he has given up a total of 9 HR’s; that includes his last outing when he surrendered 3 HR’s to the Braves. That matches up horribly with a Blue Jays offense that hits the long ball at the 2nd highest rate in the league. After Gray, the Nationals bullpen has virtually no solid options to match up with this lethal Toronto lineup. All things considered, I think we’re getting the Blue Jays RL at a reasonable price today. With their playoff aspirations still alive, I like the Jays to win by margin today.
*MLB(1u): Red Sox/Yankees OVER 10(-115)–6:05 PM CT
While I typically like to look towards the Under in high leverage games, each SP could be in for a beating today. Yankees SP Andrew Heaney has been laughably bad since being acquired at the deadline; in only 3 starts as a Yankee, Heaney has already allowed 8 HR’s and given up 4 or more ER in each appearance. The Red Sox lineup is certainly not in great current form, but they have been reliable all season long. Considering how well they handle lefties, tonight could very well be the night we see them break out in a big way. While I would play the Red Sox if I had to play a side, it’s hard to ignore how well the Yankees have played in August. At 13-4 on the month, the Bronx Bombers have put themselves squarely back in the playoff race. Boston SP Nick Pivetta is in great current form, but he is not accustomed to pitching in meaningful games late in the season. The Yankees will welcome back a much needed lefty bat in Anthony Rizzo tonight, and it helps that the Boston bullpen has not one guy that has proven to be consistent this season. I’m rolling with the Over tonight.
*MLB(1u): Angels F5 ML(-135) vs Tigers–6:10 PM CT
Shohei Ohtani will toat the rubber tonight against a Tigers lineup that has scored just 2 runs in their last 2 games. Aside from a blowup outing in Yankee Stadium, Ohtani has been phenomenal on the mound both at home and on the road this season. Comerica Park is significantly more pitcher friendly than Angels Stadium and many others across baseball; pair that with the Tigers poor current form, and I think the stage is set for another great outing from Ohtani tonight. The Angels lineup has managed to put up solid numbers all season despite missing Mike Trout for much of the season. Tigers SP Tarik Skubal is having a respectable season(4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but a 4.97 FIP and 1.9 HR/9 is not enough to convince me that he’ll fare well tonight. The Angels have played well against teams at or below their level all season long, and I think that trend will continue tonight. Of course, I can only play this game in the F5 because I want no part of either of these bullpens.
2021 Las Vegas Football Contests
If you are looking to prove your worth this season, as well has have a lot of fun doing it, look no further than the Las Vegas million dollar football contests! This year, the West Gate Super Contest, the Circa Sports millions and William Hill have all stepped up guaranteeing a $1,000,000+ prize pool.
Starting with the Circa Sports Millions, the price is $1,000 to enter. Make 5 NFL picks against the spread each week. Get one point for each correct selection and one-half point for each push. First place is guaranteed $1,000,000.00. 2nd place is 325K and 3rd place is 275K. This pool pays out into the top 50 spots and will have over 3,000 entries. What’s also cool about this contest is that you are never really out of the game. The Circa has quarterly contest prizes of $250K split up $150K for first, $50K for second, $25K for 3rd and $25K as a boobie prize for worst entry. There is no rake in this contest meaning that contestants keep all of the money. Check out https://www.circasports.com/circa-sports-million for more information. If betting ATS isn’t your cup of tea, there is another guaranteed contest in the Circa Survivor where you pick 1 team per week to just win and advance to the next week and at the end you could win $6,000,000! Check out https://www.circasports.com/circa-survivor for more information.
The Westgate Super Contest is the OG of Las Vegas contests and they have stepped up their game this year. This contest is also pick 5 games ATS getting 1 point for a correct pick and .5 for a push. The price has went down in this contest from $1500 to $1000 to compete with the Circa. Top prizes are a function of number of entries and in the past, this contest paid out $1,400,000.00+ to the first place winner. This contest will pay at least 30 places this year and is also a function of number of entries. The competition will also have nine in-season contests to go with the overall title. The SuperContest is a 100% payback without any fees, and contestants can have up to three entries. The SuperContest will have three six-week contests and six three-week contests, fitting evenly into the new 18-week schedule. The six-week contests will have aggregate payouts of $100,000, $50,000, $10,000, $5,000 and $2,500 for the first five places. The three-week contests will pay three aggregate spots at $75,000, $25,000 and $5,000. The in-season contest prizes are guaranteed (a total of $1,132,500). The remaining entry fees will go to the season-long prize pool, with the top 30 places paid. Check out https://www.westgateresorts.com/hotels/nevada/las-vegas/westgate-las-vegas-resort-casino/casino/supercontest/ for more information.
William Hill has stepped up their game for us college football lovers by creating a gauranteed $1,000,000.00+ in payouts for picking college football games ATS. The contest costs $1,000 to enter, and each player can have up to five (5) entries. Each week, pick eight (8) College Football games against the spread off of a designated menu of eligible games for chance at winning a share of $1,000,000 in guaranteed cash prizes. This contest only has 10 winners and 50% of the share will go to first place which is at least $500,000.00, 15% to 2nd which is at least $150,000.00, and 10% for third which is at least $100,000.00. Check out https://www.williamhill.us/collegepickem/ for more information.
In case you do not live in the State of Nevada, you are STILL ABLE to play in these contests by getting a football proxy. A proxy is a service that puts your plays in every single week being that you can’t be in town to do it yourself. This exception allows people all over the world to be able to get in for a chance to prove that they have what it takes to win thousands to millions of dollars. All you need to do is be there to sign up or even have a friend or family member in Las Vegas to do it for you.
Should you be looking for a proxy, look no farther than www.FootballContest.com @FootballContest who is the most experienced football proxy in all of Las Vegas! Not only does this company put in your plays, they also take the responsibility of getting the picks in just in case you forget. These great people will send you a message before the deadline and just in case you do not respond, they will actually make some plays for you that might actually turn out better than the consensus.
In summary, there are more ways to make money in the sports betting industry than your traditional weekly plays. Getting into a football contest, is fun, rewarding, exciting and can certainly help your status and reputation as a sports bettor and handicapper. When it comes to having a proxy, there is nobody better than FootballContest.com. Check them out and follow them on twitter @FootballContest.
Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Wednesday, August 18th (LAST DAY FOR PROMO!)
We went 2-0 yesterday with the Braves and White Sox cashing and improving our record to 36-22 (62%) in our last 58 plays including 21-10 (68%) in our last 31 plays and barking dog plays have been 15-5 (75%) in our last 20 underdog plays!! I am giving out my lone premium play for tonight where we look to continue executing the edge!
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The Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals play the middle game of their 3-game set tonight at Busch Stadium. All Star right-hander, Freddy Peralta, is set to hone the mound for the Brewers. He is 9-3 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 119.1 innings pitched this season. Since the break, Peralta has pitched to an even more impressive 1.69 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, .280 BABIP and 1.77 FIP across 21.1 innings. The Cardinals will counter with righty ace Jack Flaherty. He owns a 9-1 record with a 2.65 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 68 innings pitched on the year. In his first game back off the IL, Flaherty impressed throwing a 6 inning shutout while only giving up 2 hits and striking out five. This should be an excellent pitchers duel, however, the Cardinals right-hander should have the tougher task going up against a thriving Brewers offense who have owned the best wOBA (.424) and wRC+ (165) in the past week. Peralta will be up against a ball club that has ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league all season in homeruns, runs, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. Additionally, St. Louis owns an even worse .294 wOBA versus right-handed pitching at home this season, which is good enough for 2nd worst in the majors. On the flip side, Milwaukee has hit to a 4th best .324 wOBA against righties on the road this year. Likewise, both team bullpens have been solid lately posting a 3.71 and 3.94 xFIP, respectively, in the past 2 weeks. This matchup has 2-0 written all over it, so I also lean to the under but we like the side even more. Take the Brewers -113
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Rob Vinciletti: Hump Day MLB Power System Play
Wednesday card has a 5* MLB Diamond Cutter System Plays and the MLS Soccer Game of the Week. Comp Play below
The MLB Comp Play is on the Chicago Whitesox at 8:10 eastern. Chicago crushed Oakland and likely gets this one as well. The Chisox are 20-7 at home vs leftys and have won 7 of 9 at home vs a winning team. They have Lynn who has a 2.33 era and has won 4 of his last 5. Irvin for Oakland has lost his last 4 on the road and the Athletics have dropped 6 of the last 8 on the road vs a winning team. Look for the Whitesox to take this one. On Hump Day a Perfect System 5* Diamond Cutter Blowout System headlines the MLB Card along with the MLS Soccer game of the Week. See us at facebook or at goldencontender@aol.com to Jump on and cash out on Wednesday. For the MLB Comp Play. Go with Chicago. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
The Northern Trust – Preview & Picks
This ain’t no hobby!! We catch our second outright winner of the year. Kevin Kisner wins the Wyndham Championship at 55-1 for us. The Wyndham Championship came down to a six-way playoff, which ties a PGA Tour record. Russel Henley who led the first three rounds, collapsed on the back nine Sunday. He missed two putts under 4 feet to left out of the six-way playoff and finish T7.
We’re now onto the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs where the Top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup Standings are competing. After the Northern Trust, the Top 70 golfers will compete in the BMW Championship next week. For a more in-depth breakdown on the FedEx Cup Format, click the following link.
We have the best golfers in the world teeing it up in Jersey City this week. This is the second time in the past three years that the Northern Trust has been held at Liberty National. The tournament itself is played a new location every year, traditionally either in the Boston or New York City areas. It should be a great tournament as everyone tries to stay alive and advance to next week. A total of 55 golfers will be eliminated from the FedEx Cup Playoffs at the end of this week.
Dustin Johnson returns this week, and will look to become the first player ever to win back to back FedEx Cup’s. He currently sits at 17th in the standings but is only 661 points back of the leader, Collin Morikawa. Dustin actually won this event in 2020 when it was hosted at TPC Boston.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: August 19, 2021- August 22, 2021
- Location: Jersey City , New Jersey, United States
- Course: Liberty National
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,410 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 125 Players | Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut after 36 Holes
- Greens: A-4 Bentgrass .100″
- Fairways: L-93 Bentgrass .375″
- Purse: $9,500,000 / Winner $1.71 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
- Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet
- Avg. Green Size: 4,653 sq. ft.
- Water Hazards: 13 (In-Play on 12 Holes)
- Bunkers/ Rough: 98 bunkers/ Rough- Low mow – Bluegrass 1.25″, Secondary 3″
- Stroke Average:
- 2019: 70.25 (-0.75)
- 2013: 71.15 (+0.15)
Liberty National Golf Course is known for it’s impeccable views of New York City. However, prior to the course being built it was the site of a vacant warehouses sitting on contaminated land. It is the closest course to New York City, sitting on the shore of the Hudson River across from Lower Manhattan. “The land was used by the military in varying degrees during World War I and World War II. Ammunition and rail yards were on this site during WW1. While in WW2, Liberty National’s land was actually used as a prisoner of war camp.”- Source
“The site had to be decontaminated before construction could begin. Plastic was put down, then covered by millions of tons of clay and fill. The course sits 50 feet above the previous land, allowing it to offer views of the Statue of Liberty on 15 holes. All the elevation changes are manmade. Over 14 years, the club’s construction required moving six million cubic feet of soil, bringing in 70,000 truckloads of sand, adding 5,000 trees and cost $300 million dollars. The course opened July 4, 2006.”- Source
After Liberty National’s first inaugural event in 2009, the course was renovated due to player’s complaints. A total of 12 greens and 12 tee boxes were adjusted.
Since it’s inception in 2006, Liberty National Golf Course has hosted four professional events. These include, the Barclay’s in 2009 & 2013, the Presidents Cup in 2017, and most recently the Northern Trust in 2019. The Northern Trust was actually called the Barclay’s before, so it’s technically the same tournament with a different sponsor.
Liberty National Golf Course, located right on the Hudson will be susceptible to wind as it has in the past.
The players will start on Hole #1 with a Par 4 dogleg that is protected by numerous bunkers around the green. They’ll face their first long Par 3 on Hole #2, with a tee shot facing directly at the Statue of Liberty. Hole #3 is a Par 4 which rewards accuracy off the tee and around the green. Any shots not on the green, will roll away from the green severely. Hole #4 is a 219 yard Par 3 which features a backdrop of the Manhattan skyline. Hole #5 is one of the most difficult holes on the course. A pond protects the left side of this 427 yard Par 4. In addition to a great tee shot, a precise approach shot is needed as well. Hole #6 is where golfers will face their first par 5. It plays 538 yards and tight green that’s surrounded by bunkers and a pond. Hole #7 is a tight par 4, where the landing area is littered with bunkers. It plays 515 yards, and most players will be happy with a Par here. Hole #8, is a 611 yard Par 5 and is the longest hole on the course. The front nine finishes up with a 474 yard Par 4.
Hole #10 is the longest Par 4 on the course and plays 496 yards. This hole features a multi-tiered green that’s surrounded by three bunkers. Hole #11 is the longest Par 3 on the course playing 230 yards. However, the yardage is deceptive as this is an elevated tee shot. Hole #12 features another elevated tee shot on this Par 4 playing 431 yards. This green is critical to hit as it features massive runoff areas around it. Hole #13 is a reachable Par 5 playing at 580 yards. However, may players may reconsider this option as the green has water protecting it in front. Hole #14 is the 150 yard Par 3 and is the shortest hole on the course. Hole #15 and #16 are back to back Par 4’s playing at 481 and 325 yards respectively. Hole #17 is another Par 4 which features a difficult approach shot. The players finish on a 490 yard Par 4. This approach shot is also difficult as the wind will play a major factor particularly on this hole.
Tournament Trends:
- The past two winners at Liberty National were both 4th or better for SG: Tee to Green
- The past two winners at Liberty National were both 5th or better for GIR %
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Bob Cupp & Tom Kite- 2006
- Renovation: PGA Tour Design Services- 2010
- Comparable Courses:
- Shadow Creek
- Olympia Fields
- Royal Portrush
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, August 19, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM –7:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, August 20, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, August 21, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, August 22, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
- CBS** – 2:30 PM – 6:30 PM ET
- Thursday: Scattered Thunderstorms 80 F, 10 mp/h SW, 74% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Cloudy 81 F, 6 mp/h NW, 66% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Isolated Thunderstorms 79 F, 8 mp/h ESE, 70% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Isolated Thunderstorms 77 F, 6 mp/h ENE, 74% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Greens in Regulation %
- Scrambling %
- Bogey Avoidance
- Driving Accuracy
- Par 4: 450-500 yards
- Proximity: 200+ yards
- Sand Save %
Average Key Stats (previous 2 winners – Liberty National):
- 2019: Patrick Reed
- SG Off the Tee: 2nd, SG Approach: 27th, SG Around the Green: 21st, SG Tee to Green: 4th, SG Putting: 20th.
- 2013: Adam Scott
- SG Off the Tee: 26th, SG Approach: 7th, SG Around the Green: 6th, SG Tee to Green: 2nd, SG Putting: 32nd.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-30), TPC Boston MA
- Price: 20-1
- 2019: Patrick Reed (-16), Liberty National Golf Club
- Price: 55-1
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-18), Ridgewood, N.J.
- Price: 100-1
- 2017: Dustin Johnson (-13), Glen Oaks, N.Y.
- Price: 14-1
- 2016: Patrick Reed (-9), Bethpage Black, N.Y.
- Price: 50-1
- 2015: Jason Day (-19), Plainfield, N.J.
- Price: 10-1
- 2014: Hunter Mahan (-14), Ridgewood, N.J.
- Price: 50-1
- 2013: Adam Scott (-11), Liberty National Golf Club
- Price: 16-1
- 2009: Heath Slocum (-9), Liberty National Golf Club
Picks (Outright):
- Rory McIlroy (+2200) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
- Justin Thomas (+2800) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
- Viktor Hovland (+3500)- Pointsbet
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
- Patrick Reed (+4500)- Pointsbet
- Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
- Kevin Na (+10000) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.08 to win 8.0 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.15 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Scottie Scheffler (+150) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.00 Units
Picks (Matchup):
- Brooks Koepka (+130) over Bryson Dechambeau
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Total Risk on Matchups: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on The Northern Trust: 3.15 Units
PGA Year to Date: +8.50 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Tuesday, August 17th
We went 0-1 yesterday with the A’s losing which updates our record to 34-22 (61%) in our last 56 plays including 19-10 (66%) in our last 29 plays and barking dog plays have been 14-5 (74%) in our last 19 underdog plays!! I have a free premium side play for you for tonight where we look to continue executing the edge!
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The Miami Marlins will host the Atlanta Braves in the second game of a three-game series tonight at LoanDepot Park. The Atlanta Braves have won 11 of their last 13 games and now lead the NL East by 1.5 games. Right-hander Huascar Ynoa is back on the bump for the Braves. He has a 4-2 record with a 3.02 ERA, 3.18 xFIP and 1.05 WhiP across 44.2 innings pitched in nine games this year. Righty Sandy Alcantara will to toe the rubber for the Fish and he is 7-10 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 24 starts this season. In 26.2 innings pitched since the All Star break, Alcantara hasn’t been as sharp posting a 5.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 4.91 FIP. The Braves are 9th in the MLB averaging 4.93 runs per game and third with 174 home runs. Additionally, they own a top 3 wOBA (.327) while scoring a 6th ranked 214 runs when facing right-handed pitching on the road this season.. Freddie Freeman has rejoined the MVP talk as he has been on a tear with a .351 batting average, seven home runs, and 18 RBI since the All-Star break.
The Marlins are 27th averaging just over four runs per game and 121 home runs this season and they have not been good at home where they own a 2nd worst .298 wOBA at LoanDepot Park this season. Also, two of the team’s top performers this season, Adam Duvall and Starling Marte were both shipped away at the trade deadline leaving more holes in the lineup. The Atlanta Braves are currently playing some of the best baseball in the league and their best of the season and part of that has something to do with how well their pen is pitching. The Braves bullpen has been pitching to a 1.15 WHIP, 3.16 ERA and 4.17 xFIP over the past month. Atlanta has a lot to play for here, while on the other side, this game is relatively meaningless for Miami. Take the Braves -121
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August 17th MLB Picks
August Record: 11-10-4, +0.98u
*MLB Best Bet(1.5u): Astros/Royals OVER 9.5(-115)–7:10 PM CT
Astros SP Framber Valdez might have a 3.09 ERA on the season, but his 1.30 WHIP tells the more complete story of the kind of starter he is. Valdez has an abysmal 4.3 BB/9, and he has shown no signs of improving that yet this season. The Royals might be out of playoff contention, but their lineup still features plenty of capable hitters(mostly righties) that should match up well with the lefty Valdez. That being said, when you look at Royals SP Daniel Lynch’s underlying numbers, he could be in for an awakening tonight. In addition to his 1.61 WHIP through 7 starts this season, Lynch’s hard contact rate is at an astonishing 32.6%. The Astros tagged the Royals for 6 runs last night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they could get to that mark off of Lynch alone. Houston has a clear bullpen advantage over KC, but with a WHIP at 1.29 on the season, they are still susceptible to coughing up runs in the late innings.
*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 ML(-115) vs Padres–7:40 PM CT
If you’ve been following baseball closely this season, you’re probably aware that the Rockies’ home/road splits are historic. As a refresher, this team is 39-21 at home compared to 14-45 on the road. They took down the Padres in walk-off fashion at home last night, and considering tonight’s pitching matchup, they should have the advantage again. Colorado SP German Marquez has had himself quite the season; surprisingly, he’s actually pitched better at Coors Field(3.05 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9) than he has on the road. He’s no stranger to this Padres order and has held their core at bay throughout his career. The Padres will send Matt Strahm to the hill to make his first start since 2019. While he likely won’t go more than a couple of innings, the abundance of righties in the Rockies lineup should have their chances to snag an early lead and give Marquez some breathing room.
