We snatched -13.5 right before the Ohio State game for premium customers, which produced a win, and we pushed here with our free pick at -14. We also hit the Buckeyes live at -2.5, which was quite the steal. Track me on Twitter for those kind of opportunities and consider signing up for my premium plays— I’ll always have MORE plays than my free picks there. Here are my FREE picks and predictions for tonight:
Duke -6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: I promise I won’t always pick favorites but I think the books are devaluing a solid favorite tonight. Charlotte is hosting it’s first ever home game against a power-5 team and we expect Jerry Richardson (who?) Stadium to be rockin’. While I respect that and I’m sure they’ll be plenty motivated, Minnesota was motivated last night too and we saw the result (aka, home-field advantage can be a tad overstated in lopsided matchups). One glaring issue for Charlotte is their big boys up front. Their offensive line ranked 104th and 116th in run/pass blocking last year. That’s against 127 other programs so, to be clear, it is NOT a good ranking. The Duke Blue Devils aren’t a premiere power-5 team but they’re very capable on defense. Duke has a legit secondary; if Charlotte’s O-line struggles and frequently allows defenders behind the line of scrimmage, how are they going to score? Led by electric running back Mataeo Durant, I don’t see the Blue Devils having much trouble moving the ball. I can see this game being low-scoring and tilting to Charlotte’s side at first, but just like Ohio State last night, I expect the superior unit to take over. I’m on Duke covering for a unit and a half.
Michigan St./Northwestern under 45.5 (-110), 2 units: This matchup screams “old-school” to me and when we think old-school, we think defense. For years now, the Michigan State offense has looked very pedestrian. Gone are the days of workhorse running backs churning over every year and a formidable unit that can go head-to-head with the Penn State’s and Ohio State’s of the world. The Michigan St. defense has looked even worse– they gave up 35.1 points per game (ppg) last season. Fortunately they have 7 starters returning this year, so at least there’s some continuity. I think hard-nosed 2nd year coach Mel Tucker can turn around that unit and I expect to see some positive regression this year. Northwestern was sensational on defense in 2020, allowing only 15.9 ppg. While they only have 4 starters returning for this campaign, the schemes they use and the way they confuse offenses should produce the same, effective results. Michigan State played at a slow pace last year, averaging only 71 plays per game. The under is 38-15-1 in Wildcats last 54 games as a home favorite– I’ll ride it here tonight.
The Flower Bowl is carded as Race 11 and the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes is carded as Race 12 on Saturday’s 12-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 12:35 p.m. EDT.
Other notable races on Saturday at Saratoga:
Race 5: G2 Prioress Stakes (2:47 PM ET)
Race 8: G3 Saranac Stakes (4:27 PM ET)
Flower Bowl Stakes
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 11
Post Time: 6:11 PM ET
Length: 1 3/8 Miles
Purse: $600,000
Division: Open | 4 Years Old & Up
Surface: Inner Turf
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Double Wagers
Field:
PROGRAM
PP
HORSE
MED/EQ
A/S
JOCKEY
WGT
TRAINER
ML
1
1
La Signare (FR)
6/F
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
118
Brendan P. Walsh
5-1
2
2
American Bridge (GB)
4/F
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
120
Jean-Claude Rouget
12-1
3
3
War Like Goddess
4/F
Julien R. Leparoux
122
William I. Mott
4-5
4
4
My Sister Nat (FR)
6/F
Jose L. Ortiz
118
Chad C. Brown
5-1
5
5
Lovely Lucky
5/F
John R. Velazquez
118
Thomas Albertrani
20-1
6
6
Great Island
5/F
Joel Rosario
120
Chad C. Brown
4-1
7
7
Coastana
4/F
Luis Saez
118
Cherie Devaux
15-1
Horse Preview:
LA SIGNARE enters the Flower Bowl stakes with four races under her belt this year, nineteen in her career. She’s coming off a two month layoff from her last race where she ran 3rd by a neck in the G1 Diana Stakes. She faced some pretty steep competition in that race. Prior to that race, she took 2nd in the G1 Gamely Stakes where she ran her best speed figure of the year. LA SIGNARE has run her last two races at a 1 1/8 Mile so she’ll be adding some distance here.
AMERICAN BRIDGE gets shipped in from Europe for her first ever race in the U.S. She’s coming off a three month layoff. In her last race she won the G3 Premio Del Giubileo in Milan. This four year old filly has raced four times this year, and has been in the money every race. However, she’ll face the strongest field she has gone up against in this race. We’ll see if she’s up for the challenge and takes to the American turf.
WAR LIKE GODDESS has been successful in Grade 2 and 3 Stakes, but will compete in her first Grade 1 Stakes here. In her last start, she won the G2 Glens Fall Stakes just a little under a month ago at Saratoga. She’s shown some real closing power her last three races. This four year old filly has only raced six times in her career and has won five of those. The only outlier came back in her first start of 2021 where she ran fifth in the G3 The Very One Stakes.
MY SISTER NAT will face WAR LIKE GODDESS again after losing to her in the G2 Glens Fall Stakes her last start. She raced in the G1 Flower Bowl Stakes last year (which was hosted at Belmont Park) and finished 2nd. She’s competed in three races this year, all G2 Stakes, and has finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively. She’s shown some decent speed in her three starts this year, but I’m not sure if she can find an extra gear here to compete with the favorite (WAR LIKE GODDESS).
LOVELY LUCKY shouldn’t be a factor in this race and the odds reflect that. She also raced in the G1 Flower Bowl last year and finished 7th. She’s competed in just two races this year with the most recent coming in July. In that race she was coming off a six month layoff and won an Allowance Optional Claiming. Her only other race this year was in the G3 La Prevoyante Stakes where she ran 8th.
GREAT ISLAND enters this race off a win in the G3 WinStar Matchmaker Stakes at Monmouth Park in July. Prior to that race she finished 3rd in the G3 Gallorette Stakes but was bumped at the start. She’ll take a step up in class here to run in her first G1 Stakes race. Her speed figures haven’t been great this year, so I’m interested to see how she handles going up against some tougher horses.
COASTANA will compete in her first ever graded stakes race. This four year old filly just started racing this year and has five starts under her belt. In her last out she won an Allowance race at Saratoga. The speed figures don’t really match up to some of the other competitors in this race so I don’t think she’ll be much of a factor here.
Race Preview:
Front Runner:
Stalk/ Off the Pace: Lovely Lucky, Coastana
Closer: La Signare, War Like Goddess, My Sister Nat, Great Island
Looking at this race, there’s no early speed which benefits the favorite WAR LIKE GODDESS. Even though MY SISTER NAT finished 2nd to WAR LIKE GODDESS in her last out, it was not close at all. The pace should be slow, so it should all depended on where each horse lines up into the final turn. This race should come down to LA SIGNARE and WAR LIKE GODDESS in the final few furlongs.
Picks:
WIN: (1) LA SIGNARE
If you’re looking for a horse to try and beat the 4-5 favorite, I would look at the (1) La Signare. She’s the only horse that has been competitive in G1 Stakes and has the speed to match War Like Goddess down the stretch.
Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 12
Post Time: 6:46 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Miles
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Open | 4 Years Old & Up
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10) Wagers
Field:
PROGRAM
PP
HORSE
MED/EQ
A/S
JOCKEY
WGT
TRAINER
ML
1
1
Forza Di Oro
4/C
Junior Alvarado
126
William I. Mott
8-5
2
2
Max Player
4/C
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
126
Steven M. Asmussen
5-2
3
3
Chess Chief
5/C
Luis Saez
126
Dallas Stewart
15-1
4
4
Happy Saver
4/C
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
126
Todd A. Pletcher
9-5
5
5
Night Ops
5/C
Manuel Franco
126
Brad H. Cox
5-1
6
6
Forewarned
6/C
Sonny Leon
126
Uriah St. Lewis
50-1
Horse Preview:
FORZA DI ORO is an interesting horse when you look at his past few races. He doesn’t really run much, having only two starts in 2020 and just one in 2021. In his last race in 2020, he won the G3 Discovery Stakes. Then in his only race in 2021, ran in an Allowance Optional Claimer off an eight month layoff to win and run the best speed figure of his career. This horse has speed but his history intrigues me as to why they would run him so little given his ability. This will be his first G1 Stakes that he’s run in his career.
MAX PLAYER is coming off the best race of his career in the G2 Suburban Stakes where he won. Earlier this year he was shipped over seas to the UAE to run in the G1 Saudi Cup but finished 11th. After that race he came back to the U.S. to run in the G3 Pimlico Special Match Series Stakes only to finish 6th. In 2020, this colt ran in most of the big races (Kentucky Derby, Travers, Belmont) and competed. In his last race he seemed to have gotten his form back but, will go back to the G1 Stakes competition. He’s never won a G1 Stakes so maybe this four year old finally breaks though.
CHESS CHIEF has run five times this year with his only win coming back in March in the G2 New Orleans Classic Stakes. Since then, he’s run in two other G2 Stakes only to finish 3rd and 5th. Looking at his speed figures, he doesn’t match up to the other three favorites. I don’t this five year old Colt will hit the board in this race.
HAPPY SAVER won this race last year at Belmont. Since then, he’s only run twice in 2021 where he finished third behind MAX PLAYER in the G2 Suburban Stakes. In his six starts of his career, that was the only race that he didn’t win. Like FORZA DI ORO this horse doesn’t run much but has some incredible ability. He’ll be a factor here for sure, but we’ll see if gets a better trip out to set himself up for contention. He raced at Saratoga once before winning an Allowance race last year.
NIGHT OPS has had six starts in 2021, but just can’t seem to find the winner’s circle. In those starts, he’s finished 2nd four times and 3rd twice. He’s had some decent speed figures and will compete in this race but will face some steep competition again. I just don’t know if this is the race that he capture’s his first win of the year.
FOREWARNED is entered in this race but I have absolutely no idea why. His past performances have indicated that he has no ability to compete in this race given the other entries. He’s also the oldest horse in this race. He may try to push the pace but, his only role will be to try and throw the other horses off.
Race Preview:
Front Runner: Forza Di Oro
Stalk/ Off the Pace: Happy Saver
Closer: Max Player, Chess Chief, Night Ops, Forewarned
Picks:
WIN: (4) HAPPY SAVER
He lost to MAX PLAYER in the G2 Suburban but faced sloppy conditions. The Irad Ortiz Jr and Todd Pletcher combo has been great in the past, and I think they get it done here again. FORZA DI ORO easily won a sloppy Allowance race in his race out and will be a factor. I’m also relaying on HAPPY SAVER’S experience in his race, having won it last year. This colt should have the speed to close on the front runner down the stretch.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
In addition to these free plays, I also have 5 premium plays up(all multi-unit plays) for this loaded Week 1 slate. Subscribe at https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/ by selecting “Michael Fordham” as your handicapper.
*CFB(1u): Duke/Charlotte OVER 60.5–Friday 6 PM CT
Duke had a wretched 2020 season, but the lone bright spot came when they dismantled Charlotte by a score of 53-19. Duke’s season was plagued by turnovers; with QB Chase Brice out of the program, the hope is that new QB Gunnar Holmberg can limit mistakes and keep Duke sustaining drives. Holmberg has been in the program for 4 years, and in limited time, he’s played very well. David Cutcliffe is still a great offensive mind, and Duke plays at a fast enough pace to where I think they’ll have plenty of opportunities to light up the scoreboard tonight. That said, Charlotte is going to enter this game with a massive chip on their shoulder coming off of last year’s embarrassment. I like Will Healy as a HC, and he’s got a lot of experience and talent to work with offensively. Duke has concerns on the DL and in the secondary, so I think Healy and the 49ers will have matchups they can exploit with their talent on the perimeter. This is an Over game any way I look at it.
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): North Carolina ML/Clemson ML(+143)–must be placed by Friday 5 PM CT
I understand that you have to respect Virginia Tech as a program, but I really don’t see UNC having much trouble winning this game tonight. You’re not going to find a better QB in this sport than Sam Howell, and while he lost both his RB’s and some dynamic WR threats, they still return plenty of talent and also hit the transfer market to snag RB Ty Chandler from Tennessee. Virginia Tech expects improvement on defense this season, but it’s important to remember that UNC dropped 56 points on the Hokies last season. I also think UNC’s defense will be improved, and they’ll have a favorable matchup squaring off with this Hokie offense. I have zero trust that QB Braxton Burmeister is ready to trade points with the likes of Sam Howell, especially considering the questions VT is having at WR. The line seems fishy to me, so I’ll just roll with the Tar Heels to win the game.
While the high expectations for Georgia are warranted, I’m not willing to trust them in this type of game until they expand their playbook offensively. They can get to where they want to be if they become a pass-first offense, but overly conservative play-calling will continue to hold them back. I’ll believe they’ve turned a corner when I see it. DJ Uiagalelei acquired some much-needed experience in 2 close games last season and should be ready for this kind of spotlight. Clemson returns 10 starters defensively and is set up well against a Georgia offense that is down 2 key weapons(Pickens, Gilbert). I’ll take Clemson as the second leg of this ML Parlay(more on this game below).
*CFB(1u): Kansas State -3(-120) vs Stanford–Saturday 11 AM CT
I’m high on Kansas State this season with Skylar Thompson(30 career starts) back healthy at QB. Pair that experience with a dynamic RB in Deuce Vaughn, and I think the Wildcats could prove a lot of the doubters wrong this season. Stanford was horrid defensively last season(particularly in stopping the run), and they are very thin across the board heading into 2021. Kansas State runs a methodical style of play, but they’re typically very efficient. Stanford will turn to either Jack West or Tanner McKee at QB; neither have starting experience at the college level, which I think proves to be the difference in this one. I’ll take the Wildcats by a touchdown.
*CFB(1u): Marshall/Navy UNDER 47(-110)–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Marshall got off to a scorching hot start this season before imploding in their final 3 games. They now have a completely new coaching staff(expect offensive coordinator) and figure to run a new, up-tempo style of offense. Grant Wells had a rollercoaster 2020 season, and I’m not willing to trust him quite yet considering the new system in place. Navy had a bad 2020, but you have to factor in that they weren’t even allowed to tackle in fall camp, leaving them way behind the 8 ball. With a full offseason, I think Navy returns to typical form this season. Triple option teams always run a lot of clock and limit the amount of opportunities the opposing offense gets(just ask 2018 Oklahoma). Marshall was solid defensively last season, but the verdict is still out on whether they’ll be able to stay disciplined against a triple-option attack. I think Navy will be able to control the clock in this game, and combined with the uncertainty around Grant Wells, I think this one stays under the total.
*CFB(1u): Clemson/Georgia 1H UNDER 24(-105)–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
I broke down this game a little bit above, but I’ll build off my analysis by saying that both OL’s will have a tall task ahead of them. Georgia consistently has the deepest DL in all of college football, rotating guys left-and-right in order to keep everybody fresh. Dabo Swinney has hinted that Clemson’s OL is anything but solid and has even floated around the idea that they will rotate Centers on Saturday. Considering Clemson will have to break in a new RB after the departure of Travis Etienne, I think Clemson will have a hard time establishing the run early. Still, as I pointed out above, I’m not willing to buy into this Georgia offense until I see them revert to a pass-first offense. Clemson returns 10 starters defensively, and J.T Daniels will be without his top 2 projected targets in George Pickens and Arik Gilbert. There’s a possibility each offense finds it’s rhythm in the second half, but I think defense takes over early in this game.
*CFB(1u): UTSA/Illinois UNDER 50(-110)–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Illinois is coming off an emotional high after last week’s win over Nebraska, but I’d argue UTSA will present a tougher test. The Roadrunners are coming off a solid 2020 campaign and feature one of the hidden gems of CFB in RB Sincere McCormick. While McCormick will get his fair share of yards, Illinois’ defense showed me enough last week to lead me to believe they’ll defend the pass well in this one. I love UTSA HC Jeff Traylor, and his team is far more disciplined than Scott Frost’s Nebraska bunch. Unlike last week, I don’t expect there to be many free handouts for Illinois. It’s unclear whether Brandon Peters or Artur Sitkowski will start at QB, but regardless, the Illini feature anything but an explosive offense. They will continue to hammer the ground game and look to limit the QB’s responsibilities. UTSA was a top 50 defensive in CFB last season and should match up well with an Illini offense that isn’t very explosive. I like the Under in Champaign on Saturday, and this should be a very close game.
*CFB(1.5u): Northwestern -3(-120) vs Michigan State–Friday 8:00 PM CT
I released Northwestern OVER 6.5 Wins as one of my 5 season win total predictions for this season, so I’m obviously a bit more bullish on this Wildcats team than most. Even if you’re not willing to go that far, I’d still advise laying the short number with them tonight. Pat Fitzgerald is entering his 16th season as HC of the Wildcats, and he has the MAJOR advantage over 2nd year HC Mel Tucker. Tucker has a long rebuilding process ahead of him after inheriting a declining program from Mark Dantonio. Tucker will turn the QB responsibilities over to Temple transfer Anthony Russo; while Northwestern has to replace quite a bit of experience on defense, the Wildcats figure to be very strong up front as well as in the secondary. Russo struggled with turnovers during his time as an Owl(32 INT’s in 3 seasons) and will need some time to adjust to the new system and program. Northwestern QB Hunter Johnson has had a disappointing college career after being heralded as a 5 star recruit, but I am going all in on him. If you go back and watch the Elite 11 documentary from 2016, guys like Tua Tagovaioloa, Mac Jones, and Sam Ehlinger were gushing about Johnson’s talent. This is his third year in the Northwestern program, and I think he’s due for a breakout season. Michigan State has concerns at the second and third levels defensively and can’t be trusted in this matchup. Coaching matters, especially in a game where the line is this short. I’ll roll with Northwestern to start their season off strong tonight.
*CFB(2u): Rutgers -14.5(-110) vs Temple–Saturday 11 AM CT
I initially played Rutgers TT OVER 32.5 as my best bet, but after that game was postponed(resulting in a no bet), I decided to just roll with Rutgers -14.5. The crowd might be big of a factor as it would’ve been if this game was played last night, but nevertheless, this game presents the Scarlet Knights a clear opportunity to start the season off with a decisive victory. Temple is wretched defensively(particularly on the DL and in the secondary), and Rutgers returns an experienced group offensively. Noah Vedral found his rhythm at QB last season, and he’ll share the backfield with 4th year RB Isaih Pachecho, a complete back who shows up often in the passing game. Most importantly, Rutgers returns all 5 starters on the offensive line. Temple will turn to Georgia transfer D’Wan Mathis at QB; Mathis clearly has the raw talent, but he did nothing as a Bulldog last season that signaled he was ready to play big time college football. Much of the help he has around him is also playing their first game as Owls, so cohesiveness is likely to be an issue early on. Rutgers plays an aggressive style of defense and return a lot of production, and I think Temple will be outmatched from start to finish. Greg Schiano’s bunch should get a comfortable win under their belt to begin the 2021 season.
*CFB(1.5u): Stanford/Kansas State UNDER 53(-110)–Saturday 11 AM CT
Kansas State is another team I’m high on entering this season, but this matchup with Stanford will present an interesting test. Considering the Pac 12 played a 1.5 month schedule last season with almost no time for programs to prepare, you have to take some of their numbers with a grain of salt. Still, Stanford has seen their defensive production decline over the past few seasons; interestingly enough, the offense actually ran somewhat of an “up tempo” offense last season. That’s not David Shaw’s style of play, and with 2 QB’s who have never started a game at his disposal, I’d expect Stanford to revert back to much more of a methodical approach offensively. Kansas State ran just 61 plays/game last season, good for third least in the whole country. While they have more explosivity(especially with RB Deuce Vaughn), they are going to drain a lot of clock. Stanford isn’t very deep defensively, but there starters are talented enough to where I think that won’t have much of an effect this early in the season. All things considered, this total seems too high for my liking. I’m willing to bank that Stanford matches Kansas State’s slow style of play and that this game stays under the total.
*CFB(1.5u): Cincinnati -22.5(-110) vs Miami OH–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Luke Fickell is a coach I’m willing to trust laying big spreads. For goodness sakes, he was running fake punts in the 4th quarter of a 4 possession game just last season. He has his best team yet at Cincinnati, and I think they’re set up well to lay a beatdown on an in-state “rival” on Saturday. QB Desmond Ridder is coming off a solid 2020 campaign and has high hopes this season, and he’ll be helped by 2 senior WR’s on the outside. The OL must replace both of their tackles, but I’m not concerned about those repercussions in this matchup. The defense projects to be one of the best in the land again this season, and they’ll be led up front by an elite DL. Any way you slice it, Miami OH is simply overmatched against a legit Top 10 team.
*CFB(2u): Texas State +14(-110) vs Baylor–Saturday 6 PM CT
This is perhaps my boldest prediction of Week 1, but I believe Texas State is going to win this game outright. Thus, catching two touchdowns with the Bobcats easily becomes my play of the week. While Texas State went 2-10 last season, they kept games between SMU, Louisiana, Boston College, and UTSA all within 10 points. Their HC, Jake Spavital, is a creative offensive mind who once coordinated Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M. This Baylor defense isn’t bad by any means, but they’re still beatable. That’s especially true considering how Baylor’s offense projects to look this season. Starting QB Gerry Bohanon has failed to establish himself as a passer in the collegiate ranks, and the talent around him is suspect. Tristan Ebner is an average RB, and there isn’t much depth behind him. There are also questions surrounding the Baylor OL(except at LT), and with Jeff Grimes coordinating his first game at Baylor, it’s hard to imagine the Bears clicking on all cylinders in Week 1. Texas State proved last season that they can hang around with the “big boys” on their schedule, and I like that trend to continue into this season. Play of the week for me.
Well here we are, Friday before a big weekend of college football. I still haven’t given up on MLB as it has been a very good year so far. Last ten days 19-14-1 up over 10 units. As we head into the last 30 games or so for most teams, there is still plenty of value to be had. Want all my picks for MLB, NCAAF and NFL? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
Today’s free pick involves the Brewers and the Cardinals renewing their NL Central rivalry. The Brewers are the class of the division and hold a 10 game lead over the Reds and 12.5 over the Cardinals. They have it all but locked up. I have a nice bet going on the Brewers at +575 to win the National League which I am loving right now. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 2.5 Games back of the Reds for the final playoff spot and still have a lot to play for.
The pitching matchup for today features a pair of aces in Adam Wainwright and Freddy Peralta. Freddy Peralta comes back off the IL to make this start from a case of shoulder inflammation. This could have been just the Brewers trying to manage some of his innings before the playoffs as he struggled against this same Cardinals team last time out. On the year he is holding a 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and an amazing 12.16 K/9. He does have an absurdly low BABIP at .212 which is due still for some normalization. Adam Wainwright has been stellar since the start of August allowing only 7 ER in 44 IP. On the year he has a 2.97 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and an excellent 4/1 K/BB Ratio.
The Brewers hold the slight edge on offense vs RHP with a .720 OPS vs .692 for the Cards. Last 10 games Cardinals are scoring 4.3 Runs per game, The Brewers 3.7. Paul Goldschmidt has been on fire the last week hitting .391 with 3 HRs and 9 RBIs. He has a .500 BA and 2 HRs vs Peralta in 8 career ABs.
The Brewers are coming back from a west coast road trip that ended yesterday and the Cards had the day off. It’s a great spot play and the numbers support Wainwright continuing to dominate. I Believe he will pitch well and I see the Cards jumping out early off Peralta in a low scoring game. Cardinals F5 +150
Friday Hot side with 100% September MLB System Headlines along with our College Football Power System Play of the Week. Canadian League Football Comp below.
The CFL Comp play is on Ottawa plus the 7-8 points at 7:30 eastern. The Red Blacks have a slightly better offense and the overall better defense. They host a Montreal team off a pair of losses. Road favorites like Montreal that are off a home dog loss and prior road dog loss are 0-4 straight up the past few seasons in CFL Action. In fact home dogs have covered 3 of 4 when both teams enter off a home dog loss. With the line now creeping at 7 or more we will take the points with Ottawa. Tonight a Power packed card is up with our College Football Game of the Week backed with an Early season Power System. In Bases we have our Famed Friday night HOT Side backed with an Undefeated September Specific system. Contact at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on as we storm into Labor Day weekend. For the Canadian Football Comp play. Take the 7-8 points with Ottawa. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Appalachian State opens their season in Charlotte tonight against East Carolina with high expectations in what should be a packed house. While this game is in a neutral setting, I wouldn’t be surprised if the ECU crowd has a larger presence. APP ST comes in as a sizeable favorite so the question in this game is, can they get margin on an ECU team that the market seems to like?
The market has pushed this spread down to APP ST -9 with 67% of the money on ECU to cover this one. The total has gotten pushed down from it’s 61 1/2 open to 55 1/2. Looking at the team totals, APP ST is at 34 1/2 while ECU is at 23 1/2, an 11 point difference similar to where the books opened this one at -10 1/2. I’m looking to go against the market and stick with the odds makers original assessment in an opportunity to buy low on APP ST and here’s why…
APP ST comes in off a season where they were 6th in the country in rushing the ball and 23rd in total offense. Teams that can wear you down with the run can keep teams that want to go fast off the field. They are capable of putting up points and I don’t see ECU stopping them off a year where they were 102nd in the nation in total defense.
I realize people are down on APP ST QB Chase Brice, but he’s faced much stiffer competition in his college career at Duke and Clemson before that. Additionally, APP ST has a veteran defense that was 18th in the country last year that has speed to keep the high scoring ECU offense at bay. APP ST will look to keep their foot on the pedal in this one as they will be heading to Miami next week, in what will be a shootout. I’m looking for APP ST to let the country know the powerhouses in the Sun Belt should not be ignored.
NC State Quarterback Devin Leary should be on a mission last year. He started only 4 games due to injury and his numbers were pretty nice throwing 8 TDs and only 2 Interceptions vs some pretty difficult teams. Coach Dave Doeren and offensive coordinator Tim Beck have the paced picked up for this team at 25 seconds per play and they had a nice average score over 30 points per game in the ACC. South Florida was a terrible team last year giving up over 6 yards per play and over 40 points per game in the American Athletic Conference. Their defense replaces 7 starters and I can’t imagine much of a change coming into this game. What also won’t change is that they play a very fast game at 23.9 seconds per play which doesn’t bode well for giving up points. Now I am not sure how many points USF can put up this game being that they only averaged 23 last year but I do think that NC State should score at least 6 touchdowns which should bring them over the team total of 38.5. Last year, USF Gave up 39 or more points in 5 of their last 5 games. Take a team total over on the Wolfpack.
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The South Florida Bulls will begin their season in Raleigh, North Carolina as they prepare to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack on Thursday night at Carter-Finley Stadium. NC State is coming off an 8-4 2020 season which included a loss to Kentucky in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl while USF finished 1-8 in Jeff Scott’s first season as Bulls’ head coach.
Thursday will be the fourth time USF and NC State have met on the gridiron and the first time since 2014. USF will look to quarterback Cade Fortin to lead this offense after last year’s starter and playmaker, Jordan McCloud, transferred to Arizona. Even with McCloud, USF ranked 90th in the nation in yards per game (365.3) last season. This will be Fortin’s fourth college season and just his third start. He only had 8 attempts last season and will be behind an offensive line that surrendered 30 sacks in nine games last year. USF does have an experienced group of receivers in Omarion Dollison and Latrell Williams. Bryce Miller also is back after leading the Bulls in receiving last year with 33 catches for 327 yards and three touchdowns and Xavier Weaver returns as the home-run threat. Running backs, Kelley Joiner and Brian Battie, are expected to split carries again this year as they both were the top two-yard gainers out of the backfield a year ago.
The Wolfpack are led by fourth-year sophomore quarterback Devin Leary, who started in three games in 2020 before suffering a broken left foot against Duke last October. In four games, Leary threw for 890 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. NC State looks to improve upon their 74th ranked offense last season and has a number of players returning including sophomore running back Zonovan “Bam” Knight and senior wide receiver Emeka Emezie. Knight was a first-team preseason All-ACC selection after compiling 788 yards and 10 touchdowns. Emezie, the 6-foot-3 receiver, pulled in 47 receptions for 738 yards and five touchdowns. He also ranks fifth in NC State history with 169 catches.
USF’s defense allowed 441.4 yards per game last season which ranked them 94th in the nation. USF should be better in Scott’s second season and returned their top two tacklers in linebackers Antonio Grier and Dwayne Boyles and their top interception leader in corner Daquan Evans. Something to build upon.
On the other sideline, NC State gave up 415 yards per game (71st in nation) and owned a -6-turnover margin (97th in nation) last season. The Wolfpack D welcomes back their top two linebackers and tacklers, Payton Wilson and Isaiah Moore. Both could have a huge day against the Bulls. NC State should have little trouble cruising to a season-opening victory at home. Wolfpack head coach said this about his defensive line this week, “We’ve got experience and depth on the defensive line. We expect those guys to battle in there for us, and create havoc and disruption, to beat the other team on plays in the backfield. I think it’s a hungry group. It’s a group that probably feels disrespected a little bit. I think there’s been a lot of things written about them in a negative way that they’ve read and I think there’s a chip on our shoulder.”
I anticipate the NC State defense having their way with the USF offensive line and I look for NC State to take a firm grip on this ballgame in the first half and slow the game down by running the ball and the clock in the second half.
Take Under 59 points
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