We march on with shorter (but just as sweet) MLB articles! 2-1 last night, 17-8 over the last 12 days in these free baseball picks. Onto Tuesday!
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Blue Jays -1.5 (-130), 1.3 units: The Blue Jays travel to DC Tuesday to face the fledgling Nationals, who have now lost 12 of their last 13 games. I’ve been a big fan of Alek Manoah since he made his debut and my take on the 6’6″ 23 year old has only grown more favorable. Manoah’s LOB rate remains high, his ERA and FIP marks remain low, and he’s showed exceptional command and consistency for such a young thrower. Erick Fedde isn’t as bad as some of his more superficial numbers suggest, but a plummeting LOB rate (67.4%) and inconsistent command have me ready and willing to fade the Nationals’ veteran. The former version of Washington would have gone toe to toe with Toronto’s electric offense tonight but watching their body language and lack of energy lately, I don’t like their chances, especially with Manoah on the mound. The Jays are 36-15 (70%) in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Toronto.
Braves (-135), 2 units: This is an interesting pitcher’s dual between Atlanta and Miami tonight. Huascar Ynoa (4.54 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 44.2 innings) boasted solid numbers in his tenure earlier this year, as his 3.18 xFIP indicates. Two games really blew up his ERA, one against Chicago where he allowed 6 runs and 3 homers (that just screams absurdity) and his last start against the Brewers back in May, where he permitted 5 runs in 4 innings. Otherwise Ynoa only allowed more than 1 run (a 2 run allowance against Arizona on April 23) in just one other showing on the mound. Over those other 35 exceptional innings (82% of his total pitching in 2021), Ynoa allowed only 5 total runs (averages to 1 run per 7 IP). The impassioned young gun is reportedly 100% and ready to roll today, and I really like Ynoa and the Braves in this spot. Although Miami has put up more points lately, Atlanta’s lineup has more power and has been more consistent, ranking in the top 7 in slugging percentage and WOBA and top 3 in homeruns and points over the last 2 weeks. Sandy Alcantara is one of the better starters in baseball but this is a play on the better offense and a returning, motivated Ynoa to get a vengeful win. The Braves are 59-28 in their last 87 games as a road favorite– take the away team to steal one at LoanDepot Park.
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back to break down more important fantasy football information to prepare you for your season and your draft. First, Kiev talks about an important listener question and gets into a little week 1 recap. Next, Kiev gets into preseason NFL football week 2 touching on almost every game and giving out 3 plays! Then, Dave comes on to discuss Fantasy Football running back share to discuss how the running backs compare in value for each team. Which backs will be the bell-cows? Which backs will catch a lot of passes? Finally, we finish off with some disagreement on a few running backs in the AFC South. If you are a handicapper and are looking build upon your base and bottom line, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com!
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Tuesday card has a Massive Platinum Supreme Totals Move and the Germany Super Cup Total in Afternoon Soccer. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on Toronto at 7:05 eastern. The Jays are a solid road favorite here tonight and they fit a powerful system pertaining to teams off a road win by 5+ runs vs an opponent off a home loss despite scoring 5 or more runs like Washington. . The Jays have a nice pitching advantage with Manoah who has allowed 2 or less runs in his last 6 starts and has a 5-1 record with a stellar 2.59 era. Fedde goes for Washington ands he has allowed 14 runs in his last 19 innings. Toronto is 6-0 vs a team that just scored 5 or more and has won 13 of 16 vs N.L. Teams and 8 of 11 in the series. The Nationals are 5-21 vs winning teams and 0-5 after scoring 5 or more runs. Based on the system and the numbers we will Play on the Jays. On Tuesday an MLB 1/1 Platinum Supreme Totals Play headlines in bases. In Soccer we have a Powerful totals play in the Germany Super Cup. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out. For the MLB Comp play. Take Toronto. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
We have now completed the first full weekend of the Pre-Season which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 5 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures there. I have gone through the entire schedule, game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top 5 plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
AFC South – Arguably the second weakest division in the NFL, there is value right now on Tennessee. I believe they are clearly the best team in this division. Derrick Henry is going to get his, and he should have an even more balanced passing attack with the addition of Julio Jones. He should still have plenty left in the tank, and with AJ Brown becoming a bona fide #1 receiver he should get plenty of solo coverage. They still have some improvement to make on defense, #1 pick Caleb Farley hasnt been able to play yet in camp, and they didn’t make many changes here from the unit which gave up 27+ PPG in 2020. This is what will keep them from making a bigger step in the playoffs. The Colts tied for the top with the Titans in 2020 with a stout defense and a balanced offense. Once Jonathan Taylor got rolling so did the colts. They averaged over 30 PPG in their last 8 games. With Rivers retiring they have turned to Carson Wentz hoping to keep him upright. He is now at least according to reports on track to return earlier than expected from foot surgery, but whether its Wentz, Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger this offense wont be as potent as it was in 2020. Jacksonville’s new regime features QB Trevor Lawrence and potentially our first real look at a college offense getting translated to the NFL with Urban Meyer. It will take more than a few changes though to makeover a defense that was the second worst in the NFL giving up nearly 500 points on the season. I see them cranking out a few more wins than last year, but it will take a few more draft classes to get Lawrence some weapons and a few players on defense. Houston was a mess last year before all the news on Deshaun Watson came out. We are still waiting to see how that will shakeout, but this team did not improve in the off season and should end up at the bottom of the standings this year. The AFC South gets the NFC West and AFC East as common opponents.
Tennessee 11-6
Indianapolis 7-10
Jacksonville 5-12
Houston 3-14
AFC West – The Patrick Mahomes show continued in the AFC West with a slight interruption for a toe injury. With weapons like Kelce and Hill, Mahomes will continue to be a star in the league and the only thing stopping him is going to be an injury or Tampa’s Defense. The Chiefs went unchallenged in this division in 2020 dominating on both sides of the ball. This year they should have a battle in the division as I see the Chargers taking a big step forward. Adding protectors for Justin Herbert in RaShawn Slater in the draft and Cory Linsley in free agency is huge. The Chargers had the worst protection rate in the NFL last year. With a healthy Austin Ekeler coming back and Herbert already having shown signs of being a star this offense is ready to make a big leap. Oh and they have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to stretch the field and provide big time targets in the red zone. Adding Brandon Staley as coach is also huge for the defense as he will continue to call plays on defense just as he did with that lethal Rams unit last year. Las Vegas and Team Chucky had an 8-8 campaign in 2020 and really struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The had the 8th best offense in the league, but a lot of that was trying to come from behind. This team has a lot of holes and adding Casey Heyward on defense isnt enough to get them to move up in the AFC West. The Denver Broncos added Teddy Bridgewater to compete at QB with Locke. After going 5-11 last year somehow this is supposed to propel this group to a .500 team according to the sport books? Vic Fangio is supposed to be a defensive guru, and his defenses have gone backwards since he got there. Patrick Surtain may fill a big gap for them on defense, but certainly not enough to get Denver out of the cellar. They also close their schedule with 5 of 7 games in division including a pair each against the Chiefs and Chargers. Unless they get out to a fast start, I dont see this team finishing strong and getting above .500. The AFC West gets the NFC East and AFC North as common opponents.
Kansas City 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers 11-6
Las Vegas 8-9
Denver 6-11
Free picks:
Team Total Win Bets Free Plays – Denver Broncos Team Total under 8.5 -110, this is my Number 2 Team Total win play. Indianapolis Colts under 9.5 wins, This is my number 5 Team total win play
Division Winner Play – The Tennessee Titans are my best value play to win a divison. You can currently grab them at -105 to win the AFC South if you shop around.
Call me crazy for looking at the UN 8.5 on this game but there’s a couple of markers I can’t take my eyes off. I realize the Angels are 10th in BA vs RHP on the road, and I understand the Yankees have been lighting up the scoreboard lately, but I couldn’t help but notice both TT’s for these teams are pretty juiced to the under. The NYY TT OV 5.5 has only hit 3 times in their L10 and LAA has only hit their TT OV 3.5 3 times in their L10. It makes sense why both are juiced to the Under.
Books know it’s a difficult thing to do to back either of these teams to the Under and the markets agree with the overwhelming % of tickets and $ on the OVER. This one could turn ugly quick as both lineups are capable and NYY SP G. Cole is fresh off of a 10-day COVID layoff. Both SP’s have struggled as of late, but both Cole and LAA SP Jose Suarez are tops in their rotation. If you haven’t noticed, opposing pitchers tend to show their best stuff when they matchup against the sensational Cole. As we get later into August, I expect the cream to rise to the top and we’ll see the “who’s who” of SP in the MLB. Add to the fact that this is a one-off makeup game to start of the Angels’ long road-trip and the Yankees’ 1st game back off of their latest journey. I’m going to hold my nose and take the UNDER 8.5 in this one!
–The Indians are coming off a nice series in Detroit that saw them take 2 out of 3 and win yesterday’s rubber match decisively. In the 11-0 win, Triston McKenzie flirted with a perfect game, meaning the main pieces in Cleveland’s bullpen weren’t needed. The Indians have the much better bullpen, and that’s even more true when they’re completely fresh like they will be tonight. Each of today’s SP’s are on hot stretches right now, but I’m more inclined to trust Indians SP Cal Quantrill. Over his last 6 starts, Quantrill has managed to give up no more than 2 runs and has gone at least 5 innings in each of those starts. This stretch has seen him lower his season ERA to 3.13. The Twins offense does not present an easy matchup, but it’s hard to go against Quantrill in his current form. Twins SP Griffin Jax has also pitched well as of late, but he’s making just his 6th career start tonight. The Indians aren’t fantastic at the plate, but they’re plenty capable of taking advantage of a pitcher who has his struggles with command. Considering the substantial bullpen advantage in this game, getting the Indians at plus-money is great value.
*MLB Best Bet(1.5u): Mets/Giants F5 UNDER 4.5(-110)–8:45 PM CT
–The Mets just got swept at home against the Dodgers, and now they have to travel across the country to face off with one of the best teams in the league. Oh, and they’ll face an All Star pitcher with a 2.29 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Mets struggle offensively in the easiest of matchups, so considering what I just laid out for you, it’s hard to see them having much success on offense tonight. However, when playing totals, you need contributions from both sides. Mets SP Rich Hill is better than his 4.05 ERA indicates, and he should give the Giants a tough look tonight. San Francisco obliterates righties(especially at home), but against lefties, they are much more pedestrian. Hill’s hard contact rate is a respectable 21.6%, and he was brought over by New York to keep the Mets in games just like this. Each team has a ton to play for right now; in these types of series where the stakes are high, an Under is always worth a look. I don’t want the bullpens involved in this play, so I feel more comfortable in making the F5 Under tonight’s best bet.
Hello fine people of TheOddsBreakers! Little announcement here– for the duration of the MLB season, I will no longer be writing long, nuanced articles with my free baseball plays. As I turn my focus to the NFL and college football, I will still put out picks here but the write-ups will be as succinct as possible so I can free up more time for other sports. As many of you probably already know, the fall is the busiest time for many handicappers. Baseball is coming to an end, basketball is around the corner and all of us are fully entrenched in football. Not to mention there’s always UFC and the NHL starts in October, too. If you want to succeed in sports handicapping, you need to prioritize time for your preparation and research or things can get really overwhelming. This is my attempt at minimizing my workload in MLB to grant myself extra time for football and basketball prep. All that said, here are my free plays to start your week and I hope you all know how grateful I am for all your readership and support!
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Cubs/Reds under 9 (-105), 1.5 units: Wade Miley has been consistent for most of this season, holding his ERA under 3.00 in 3 out of the 5 months of play. Teams are usually good for 2-3 runs against the aging Miley, but his veteran command rarely let’s it go passed that mark. Against the Cubs anemic offense, I think it’s fair to say Miley can’t be too intimidated heading to the mound today. Pitching for Chicago is young first year starter Justin Steele. Steele’s 2.99 xERA and mostly solid numbers is at least something relevant for the Cubs since they have little else to play for this year. Even if Cincinnati’s lineup shows up big again Monday, the Cubs may not score at all. The under is 18-7-2 in Cubs last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record. I’ll take that play in what feels like a sleepy game at Great American Ballpark.
Giants -1.5 (-110), 2 units and Mets/Giants over 8.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Two separate bets. This is a big time mismatch on the mound with Kevin Gausman serving for the Giants and Rich Hill, who’s been steadily pedestrian this year, getting the start for New York. The Mets are slumping right now, having lost their last 3 games (all at home) in an abysmal series showing against the Dodgers. They were outscored badly by last year’s champs, surrendering 22 points in 3 games while only mustering 10 of their own. I’m thinking it’s times like this where deGrom’s absence is particularly glaring. Now the ultra-confident Giants get to host the Mets at home in game 1 of a three-game series. The Giants are 40-14 in their last 54 games as a home favorite– take San Francisco by margin and the over as a hedge, just in case the Mets’ bats decide to show up (and we’re pretty sure the home team can expose Rich Hill throughout this contest).
The Soccer comp Play for Monday is on Villarreal at 2:00 eastern in LA Liga action. Villarreal comes of a huge 1-1 draw and a loss in Penalty kicks to Chelsea. Now they look to bounce back in their home opener against Grenada. In the Head to head meetings Villarreal has done well. In fact Grenada is 0-5 here with 2 draws and were lousy on the road last season with 4 wins 11 losses and 3 draws. Grenada has a new coach but has not done much to the roster. Villarrreal has added another top level striker and they should get the win here at home today. On Monday the MLB Headliner is the MLB Perfect System Total of the Month. See us on facebook to Jump on and start the week big in bases. For the soccer comp play. Go with Villarreal. Rob V- GC Sports.
Fantasy Football Rankings (I need to fix formatting)
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The NFLX Totals Play is on the Under in the Carolina at Indy game at 1:00 eastern. The Panthers wont have any of their starters going and the Colts may only play their starters a series or two at most. This figure to be a lower scoring game as the Colts who have already sustained serious injuries to a top line mam and Carson Wentz. So they will get a good look at Jacob Easton and Sam Ehlinger. The Colts have a plethora of depth on defense and should keep Carolina at Bay. Most of the NFLX Games have been lower scoring and this one should follow suit. Play the Colts and Panthers under the total. Rob V- GC Sports
