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NFL – Full Season Preview Part 1 – AFC North/East

By
Shawn Knoche
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We have arrived at the first full weekend of the Pre-Season which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 5 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures.  I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top 5 plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

AFC North – The Pittsburgh Steelers won the division in 2020 at 12-4. Big Ben looked like his old self for much of the year. That’s the current problem his “old self” isnt getting any younger. After starting 11-0 they limped to a 12-4 finish and then got Mayfielded in the playoffs. The Ravens had the best point differential last year, and I don’t see them going backwards. Harbaugh will have this team ready to compete.  Baker Mayfield improved throughout the year and got the Browns one big play away from the AFC title game. The Bengals should have Joe Burrow close to full health this year. We’ve yet to really see what he can do, and I am looking forward to it, but I don’t see the Bengals competing just yet.  This division gets the NFC North and AFC West as common opponents. Here’s my prediction for the division in 2021

Cleveland 10-7 (Wins Division via common opponent tie break)

Baltimore 10-7

Pittsburgh 9-8

Cincinnati 6-11

AFC East – The Bills and Josh Allen had the breakthru season they were hoping for ending up at 13-3. They shut down Baltimore in the playoffs, but couldn’t slow down the Chiefs offense to advance to the Super Bowl. They should pick up right where they left off. Miami had the 3rd best scoring defense in the AFC last year, and don’t seem to lose much on that side of the ball. The question for the Dolphins will be can Tua make a step forward. They got to 10 wins last year thanks to a lot of Fitzmagic. Will this year will be Tua time? Am I sold on him? Absolutely not. That being said this defense should keep most teams at or below 20 points, and I see the Dolphins becoming a playoff team as Tua does just enough in most games. The Patriots post Tom Brady made me want to turn the other way especially when they had the ball. Cam Newton is back again for a second shot at getting this offense going. I am not a believer even if he keeps the job. The Jets have moved on from Sam Darnold, but will they have a franchise QB in Zach Wilson? I highly doubt it. I wasn’t a big fan in college, and I don’t think his game translates to the NFL. I do see improvement with this team overall and they should be much better vs 2020, but that still places them last in this division. NFC South and AFC South are common opponents.

Buffalo 13-4

Miami 12-5

New England 7-10

New York Jets 6-11

Team Win Total Bets – Take Miami over 9.5 with the plus money. This is my Number 3 Team Win Total play for 2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Saturday, August 14th

By
Nick Hub
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We went 1-1 last night pushing our record to 32-20 (62%) in our last 52 plays including 17-8 (68%) in our last 25 plays and barking dog plays have been 13-5 (72%) in our last 18 underdog plays!! Lets continue executing the edge!!

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The Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners will play the middle game of their three-game set tonight at T-Mobile Park. Toronto continues to play winning baseball but still remains 3.5 games out of the 2nd wildcard spot entering Saturday. They stand at 2-3 on their current five-game road trip which includes two wins in four bouts against the Angels. Veteran left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu will get the nod for the Jays. He is 11-5 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 126.2 innings pitched this season. Ryu has been impressive on the road this season posting a 1.10 WHIP, .291 BABIP and 3.54 xFIP. The Mariners will counter with a lefty of their own in Yusei Kikuchi. He comes in posting a 3.73 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 125.1 innings on the year. At home this season, he owns a 1.20 WHIP, .273 BABIP and a 3.46 xFIP. The Blue Jays rank fourth in baseball with 5.16 runs per game while the Mariners are scoring an average of 4.15 runs per game, ranking them 23rd overall. The Jays have been one of the more threatening teams in all of baseball recently. They have won 12 out of their last 17 games overall led by their offensive production. Seattle has been playing .500 baseball recently and is a team that ranks 28th in OPS and rarely scores more than four runs. They have scored four or fewer runs in 10 consecutive games. Additionally, Toronto owns the 2nd best wOBA versus left-handed pitching this season while the Mariners own a .298 wOBA versus lefties this year, good enough for 27th in the league. In what has been an inconsistent year, the bullpen has pitched to the 7th best xFIP (4.00) while posting a 1.23 WHIP and 3.77 ERA in the past 30 days. Take the Blue Jays -1.5 +110

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Please disregard last post

By
Kiev O'Neil
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August 14th MLB Pick

By
Michael Fordham
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DUNEDIN, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 27: Hyun-Jin Ryu #99 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning during the spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at TD Ballpark on February 27, 2020 in Dunedin, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Coming off a disappointing 0-2 night, I’m looking to bounce back with 1 winner tonight. 

August 2021 Record: 10-8-4, +2.63u

*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 ML(-135) @ Mariners–9:10 PM CT

The Mariners won Game 1 of this series by a score of 3-2 last night, but I believe the Blue Jays have the edge in Game 2 today. While tonight’s SP’s have similar numbers, I’m much more willing to trust Hyun Jin Ryu given his career track record(3.04 career ERA). Ryu’s 3.62 ERA is somewhat underwhelming, but his road numbers have been much better(3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9). This is likely due to the fact that the Blue Jays have played the majority of their home games in minor league ballparks where hitters have a significant advantage. Tonight’s setting, T-Mobile Park, has historically been friendly to pitchers, and considering the Mariners have hit just .215 against lefties at home since June 1st, the path to a good outing is clear for Ryu tonight. Mariners SP Yusei Kikuchi has pieced together a solid season so far, but this Blue Jays lineup presents a dreadful matchup. As much as hitting in minor league parks has helped the Jays this season, they’ve been able to put together dominant numbers on the road as well. Since June 1st, they’ve hit .292 against lefties on the road, good for second in baseball over that span. Kikuchi’s strikeouts are at an all-time high this season, but he’s also giving up 1.6 HR/9. With a FIP at 4.38(compared to a 3.73 ERA), some regression can be expected from the Japanese lefty. Because of the recent struggles from Toronto’s bullpen, I’m hesitant to play the Blue Jays full game. However, I think Ryu and the Jays offense have what it takes to give themselves a lead heading into the late innings.

MLB 8/14/21 Saturday Super Plays – Sports Investing

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Tampa Bay vs Minnesota -107 O/U 9.5

It is true that the Twins are the biggest disappointment in baseball this year and you will get no arguments from me but I have a question for you.  Are you a sinner?   The reason that I ask this is because it would be a sin to not fade Wacha on the road here.   Michael has a 5.97 FIP and a 1.66 WHIP when leaving the freedom state, and while Tampa has been hitting much better lately, Minnesota at least has their best pitcher going in Kenta Maeda who has a 2.77 FIP at home and a 1.27 WHIP.   The Twinkies quietly rank 10th in wRC+ which tells me that they will score a few runs here.   Twins are also mispriced slightly due to BABIP.   I have to take the Twins 1st 5 to be on the safe side.

Twins – 1st 5 -125 – 2 stars

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins -148 O/U 7.5

Here is another strange price.   The Marlins are in last place and won’t be making the playoffs but they at least still have some guys left.   The Cubs sent a message loud and clear that they are rebuilding and they are not even a shell of what we saw last year.  Stats do not justify this game after the trades but what certainly does is Zach Thompson pitching for the Miami who has a 3.78 FIP and a 1.18 WHIP vs the other Zach in Zach Davies who has a 5.14 FIP and 1.57 walks and hits over innings pitched.   Too add punishment to the pain, the Cubs best player in Wilson Contreres in on the shelf with a knee sprain.   Grab the fish at the low price.

Miami -148 – 1.5 stars

NFL 2021 Preseason Week 1 Free Play – Sports Investing

By
Kiev O'Neil
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NASHVILLE, TN - NOVEMBER 05: Head coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens yells at a referee against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 5, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

New Orleans vs Baltimore -2.5 O/U 36

The Saints have a lot of work to do and I think that is what is keeping this spread down some.   Taysom Hill is competing with Jameis Winston for the starting position and the narrative is that these two quarterbacks are going to duke it out all game to see who gets the nod.   What people are completely ignoring here is that there are 4 quarterbacks and this roster and at least 1 of them needs to be cut.  Ian Book and Trevor Siemian will be gunning today and will most likely getting some serious reps during this contest.  If you know anything about John Harbaugh, he likes to win preseason games.   He is 37-12 in preseason games at 76% showing how much he cares to get the W.   His backup quarterback Trace McSorely completely understand that the backup roll isn’t quite set yet and he has to beat out Tyler Huntley to secure his roster spot.   The biggest thing about this handicap is that Harbaugh is 12-1 in week 1 preseason games and his only loss was his first year coaching.   John is on an 11-0 run in week 1s and I do not want to be that guy who fades him.   Ravens by 7.

Baltimore -2.5 – 3 stars

MLB Picks and Predictions – August 14, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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CINCINNATI, OHIO - AUGUST 16: Luis Castillo #58 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch against the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park on August 16, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

 

Even though we had a let-down Friday, this is undoubtedly my sharpest week yet in MLB– we’ve gone 12-4 over the last 9 days and 6/9 of those days have been undefeated. Let’s keep this train chugging– here are 2 more free plays for your Saturday, enjoy!

I will have Premium Picks all weekend in NFL and MLB.
Click the hyperlink to sign up for my favorite plays every day!

Reds (-139), 2 units: Luis Castillo (6-11, 4.53 ERA, 3.98 xERA over 131 innings) has been the poster boy of unpredictable outcomes this year. Once thought of as the Reds’ most prized pitcher, full of potential and ace skill, Castillo’s performances have left us both in awe in how dominant he can be and in disbelief in how awful his command can sink. In his last outing, Castillo got obliterated at Cleveland, permitting 7 hits and 8 runs in just over 3 innings on the mound. It was a return of the Castillo we saw back in April and May, where he put up god-awful 6.29 and 8.04 ERAs in the first 2 months of the season. But the summer was different. In 68.4 innings during June and July, the 28 year old had a 1.93 ERA and never allowed a team to score more than 3 points. He only allowed 1 run or less in 7 out of those 11 starts. I think we’ll see the more stable and more dynamic version of Castillo this afternoon. This is a big game for both of these teams and the Phillies have a much weaker starting pitcher in Matt Moore (6.79 ERA, 1.63 WHIP over 50.1 innings). Moore struggles in myriad ways but none more than his homerun allowance (2.15/9 innings). The Reds are top 5 in almost every major offensive category over the last 2 weeks, and no team has a better slugging percentage (.525) over that span. They’re also 2nd only to the White Sox with 27 homers the past 14 days. This is not a good setup for Moore and while Castillo just had one of his worst performances of the year, the Phillies’ bats have gone ice cold over their last 5 games, averaging only 1.6 runs per contest. The road-warrior Reds have won 7 of their last 10 games and need to keep winning to stay in NL Central contention. After starting off August on fire, the Phillies have now dropped 3 of their last 5. Cincinnati is 7-0 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and 23-8 in their last 31 games as a favorite. Take the Reds.

Braves -1.5 (-110), 2 units: The Braves smell blood. Unless Juan Soto holds the entire team on his shoulders and whacks a few homeruns, the Nationals have been completely abysmal the last 2 weeks. Losers of 10 of their last 11 games (and over half of those by margin), the aimless Nationals continue to let their season crumble while the top 3 teams in the NL East are still competing in a tight race for 1st place. And Atlanta is starting to hum. Coming into Saturday the Braves have now won 9 of their last 12 contests and they’re tied with the Phillies for the top spot in their division. Ergo, there’s little reason to believe that the motivation won’t be there. Today they’ll send Max Fried (3.91 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 103.2 innings) to the mound, who has yet to maintain consistency this year, but I think his profile is still solid enough to get behind. Fried boasts solid numbers across the board, including a 75% LOB rate, 4.03 xERA, 3.75 xFIP, and only 0.95 HR/9 innings. Against the always-capable Juan Soto and other power-hitters of the Nationals, that last statistic is rather important. Fried has mixed results against Washington this season but it’s reasonable to say that this is a far less intimidating lineup he’ll be opposing today. I like Fried to have a solid showing; I can’t say the same for Patrick Corbin (5.83 ERA, 1.42 WHIP over 122 innings). In 11.1 innings against Atlanta this season, Corbin has surrendered 11 hits and 9 runs. His alarming HR allowance (1.99/9 innings), dropping LOB rate (68%), and 5.80 xERA should give Washington backers even more caution. There’s always a chance that the Nationals could wake up and decide to make this a ball-game but there are few indications that it will realistically happen against this determined and streaking Braves unit. Atlanta is 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 7-1 in their last 8 games against a left handed pitcher. Take the Braves by margin.

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday NFLX Preview and Prediction

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Saturday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 MLB and the First time all year we have 2 Platinum Supreme moves one in Soccer and one in NFLX headlining a tremendous Saturday card. Comp Play below.

The NFLX Comp play is on SF at 8:30 eastern. The Niners fit a nice opening week Preseason system tonight and they have the better back end Qb/s. The Chiefs are 0-9 to the spread as an NFLX Dog of 2 or more and they have failed to cover the last 5 vs NFC West teams. The Niners have covered the last 4 in the Preseason series with KC. Look for the Niners to get the win here. On Saturday one of the strongest cards of the season thus far as we have an Executive Level TIER 1 MLB and a Pair of Platinum supreme Open enders. One in the NFL and one in Soccer. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out. For the Comp play. Go with San Francisco. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Alan Cashman’s Friday MLB

By
Alan Cashman
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Friday 8/13

Going with Marlins Over 3.5 tonight . -110 is a good number given some of trends below

MLB
Chicago Cubs at Miami 7:10 pm
Alzolay vs Luzardo

Pick: MIA Over 3.5 (-110)

Alzolay 5.06 Road ERA
Alzolay 5.29 ERA in night games
Alzolay has allowed 3 or more runs in 8 of last 10 starts
Cubs bullpen 7.02 ERA last 10 games
Cubs have allowed 4 or more runs in 9 of last 10 games
MIA has scored 4 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games

Free Premium Pick with Analysis for Friday, August 13rd

By
Nick Hub
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Friday the 13th?! Will it be a crazy night in sports? I guess we’re just gonna have to wait, watch and see! We went 1-1 yesterday pushing our record to 31-19 (62%) in our last 50 plays including 16-7 (70%) in our last 21 plays and barking dog plays have been 12-5 (70%) in our last 17 underdog plays!!  I have a free premium totals play for you for tonight where we look to continue executing the edge!

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The Chicago Cubs will travel to Miami tonight to open a three-game weekend series at Marlins Park versus the Marlins.  Right-hander Adbert Alzolay is set to take the hill for the Cubs.   The 26-year-old enters with a 4-12 record to go along with a 4.71 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 105 innings pitched in 20 starts.  Miami will hand the ball to lefty Jesus Luzardo for his third start since the trade deadline. Acquired from the Oakland Athletics, the 23-year-old is 3-5 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.66 WHIP across 85.2 innings pitched in 15 games (eight starts).  This is not the prettiest of starting pitching matchups but one thing that both starters have in common is that they will be going up against 2 stagnant offenses which should improve their numbers.  It’s hard to predict who will win this game. Miami has lost 10 of its last 14 games and five of its last six overall. The Cubs haven’t been any better, dropping eight in a row and 14 of their last 16 games. Lets dig in a bit.  Since the trade deadline, both of these teams rank in the bottom 3rd of the league in runs scored, homeruns, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+.  Additionally, Chicago ranks 26th in the league with a .286 wOBA while scoring just 3.72 runs per game on the road this season.  On the same topic, Miami’s offense has hit to a .286 wOBA, as well, while scoring 3.94 runs per game at home this season.  Did I mention that both teams traded away their best hitters too? This should be a good “get right spot” for these starters.  Take Under 7.5 runs

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