It’s Friday the 13th and we have found a not-so-scary free play for you! Now this is a game that fits some of the important preseason data. Unless you just arrived at The OddsBreakers, you know that coaching motivation is the most important thing when betting NFL preseason football. Looking at this game, you have The Atlanta Falcons who has a new coach in Arthur Smith. New coaches in general get a bit more fired up abut their first preseason games compared to the tenured ones. Now even though that there is no quarterback controversy in Atlanta, we must not ignore the fact that backups AJ McCarron and Felipe Franks is not a settled position. Digging a little deeper, the Titans also do not have any starting quarterback controversies and their backups Logan Woodside and Matt Barkley aren’t exactly something to write home about. Looking at Mike Vrable, he is a miserable 2-6 in preseason football and he is smart enough to not be risking his veteran talent in this football game. Tennessee will be treating this game with the only goal in mind as to test out his 3rd and 4th string to see who makes this team. Finally, coach Arthur Smith came from Tennessee over the last few years as offensive coordinator meaning that he will want to make an impact against his former team. Take the dirty birds.
Sitting at 6-0-1, +6.43u on the week, I’m looking towards 2 MLB plays tonight to keep things rolling into the weekend.
*MLB(1u): Athletics/Rangers F5 UNDER 4.5(-120)–7:05 PM CT
The A’s exploded for 17 runs in Cleveland yesterday in a runaway victory, but even so, I’m not as sold on this offense as some. Rangers SP Dane Dunning has solid numbers at home this season(2.51 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 0.5 HR/9) and tossed 4 shutout innings against the A’s just last month. That said, A’s SP Cole Irvin draws a desirable matchup against a Rangers lineup that has scored just 1 run in each of its last 2 games. The lefty has fared well on the road this season(3.12 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9), and considering the Rangers’ inability to hit for power, I think Irvin has a clear path to a dominant start tonight. I was debating playing this F5 Under when the total was at 4, so when I saw it jump up to 4.5, I hopped all over it.
*MLB Best Bet(1.5u): Giants -1.5(+100) vs Rockies–8:45 PM CT
-The Giants have continued to stay red hot, and after winning 7 of their last 8 entering tonight, they now hold a 5 game lead in the NL West. They easily took care of the Rockies last night in a 7-0 win, and I’m willing to bet we see a similar result tonight. San Fran will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound tonight; after a stellar 1st Half, DeSclafani has come back down to earth over his last 4 starts, but I can assure you there is no lineup he’d rather see right now than these Rockies. In 2 starts against Colorado this season(both at home), DeSclafani has managed to toss 15 shutout innings, including a complete game shutout. The Rockies are among the worst lineups in baseball away from home, hitting just .214 against righties on the road since June 1st, so I like DeSclafani to get back on track tonight. While I trust the Giants more against righties, they shouldn’t have much trouble against Rockies LHP Austin Gomber tonight. Compared to his 1.70 ERA and 0.85 WHIP at Coors Field this season, Gomber has horrible road numbers(5.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9). As per usual in San Francisco, the wind is blowing out tonight; in Gomber’s previous start in San Fran this season, he coughed up 9 runs and lasted just 1.2 innings. As insurance, it’s comforting to know that the Giants have one of the best bullpens in baseball, while Colorado has one of the worst. At even money, I like the Giants RL as my best bet tonight.
The NFL is officially back! You may have heard me say it on my podcast or in my articles here at TheOddsBreakers, but the NFL is BY FAR my favorite and my sharpest sport. I know I’ve had plenty of success in the NBA this year (58% over 350 picks) and recently in baseball (12-2 this week), but I’m counting on an even more lucrative football season. Let’s get it started in the preseason where, yes indeed, you can certainly handicap these games and find plenty of opportunity. Onto the picks!
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Falcons -1 (-105), 1.5 units: I like the Falcons side Friday night for several reasons. Firstly, it’s pretty clear that Mike Vrabel doesn’t care too much about the preseason. Vrabel is 2-6 in his 2 preseasons with the Titans and their offense doesn’t look that different, besides Julio Jones of course. At 32, the time is NOW for Jones to get a ring on a winning team. As of this morning there are no reports on if he’ll play or not, but we do know that Tannehill will be limited and Derrick Henry will not play. Vrabel has little to prove with an offense that exploded last year, ranking 4th in passing efficiency and 3rd in running efficiency according to Warren Sharp’s NFL preview. While they have plenty of new additions on defense, which let them down on plenty occasions last year, it’s reasonable to assume that they want to protect and not over-work potential game-changing players like Caleb Farley (rookie from VA Tech, drafted 22nd overall), former Steeler Bud Dupree, Janoris Jenkins and others. The Falcons, meanwhile, have a lot to prove this year. New coach Arthur Smith, previously an assistant coach for the very same Titans, will likely use the preseason to gauge his team’s talent and test his schemes. This is all very on par with what any new coach would do, but it seems even more relevant for Atlanta. For years now the Falcons have been a team filled with talent but unable to take advantage and convert that talent into wins. Matt Ryan is locked into the QB1 role but there’s a legit competition going on for the #2 role between AJ McCarron and Feleipe Franks. It’s also a good first-look for Smith to examine his offensive line. Much to the chagrin of many an NFL pundit, the Falcons chose to align with Matt Ryan for another year, not draft a QB (instead they drafted Kyle Pitts in the first round, who should be fun to watch), and invest even more in an offensive line that didn’t fare well in 2020. Multiple draftees from the past 2 years will get a chance to work themselves into the rotation and try-out Atlanta’s new offensive front. At home, behind a new coach who probably cares about beating his former team way more than Vrabel cares about defending his, I’m on the Falcons tonight.
Giants (+115), 1.5 units: Reports out of Jets camp on #2 overall pick Zach Wilson are a bit muddled. Apparently he really sucked in a recent scrimmage, throwing for less than 50% and tossing 2 INTs. Others still feel there’s plenty to like about Wilson’s profile and potential, despite being on a team with a first-year coach and one of the most shallow rosters in the NFL. In Warren Sharp’s NFL preview, the Jets’ position rankings are the following (it ain’t good): QBs: 29th, Offensive Line: 24th, Running Backs: 32nd, Receivers: 29th, Front 7: 21st, and Secondary: 31st. While some may find this as a reason toplay on the Jets in the preseason since they have so much to figure out, I don’t think it’ll result in quality play, at least not in the first game or two. On the other side of the field, we learned last year that Joe Judge is a defensive coach. This isn’t much surprise coming from the Belichik tree and since he previously served as a Special Teams coach, but his focus on a tough, hard-nosed defensive style seems to be working. The Giants were a top 10 defense in a slew of different categories last year, and that was without a dominant front 7 like the Giants we know from the past. Though not able to affect or sack the quarterback as much as they would have liked, the Giants are stacked in their secondary and probably only got better this offseason. NYG’s selection of UCF’s Aaron Robinson in the third round of this year’s draft added to even more depth in their secondary after signing free agent Adoree Jackson in the offseason from Tennessee. Daniel Jones won’t play Saturday, which isn’t a big shock, but the Giants have veteran Mike Glennon and 3rd year quarterback Clayton Thorson. Glennon clearly owns the #2 spot behind Danny Dimes and that’s a good thing for this game– we’re assuming he’ll lead the Giants for most of this contest. After Wilson, the Jets have a bunch of late-round, inexperienced quarterbacks and things could get really ugly at that point, especially against a Giants defense that’s accruing more talent and depth. The ol’ battle of New York (New Jersey, in actuality) will go to an undervalued Giants team if you’re asking me. And you are, aren’t you? Bet the Giants.
Seahawks/Raiders over 37.5 (-110), 1 unit: Just a one unit play here because it is the preseason after all, but these are two teams who come into 2021 with little reason to believe they’ll look much different. That means they’ll be very efficient on offense and yea, not so much on defense. These are also two coaches in Pete Carrol and Jon Gruden who historically care about the preseason way more than most. Carrol’s all-time record in these exhibition games is 25-15, while Gruden is a solid 38-16. And it makes sense. Carrol and Gruden are like little kids when they’re on a football field– they love to compete, yell, run around, smell the grass, sniff smelling salts, smack players on the ass– okay, you get it. They get excited. They’ll be pumped to play, especially with a crowd, and that should pump up these two high energy teams and result in plenty of offense. Take the over.
We have a great show for you today! Lee Sterling @ParamountSports who was THENUMBER 1 FOOTBALL CAPPERlast year at Covers.com is back to break down some college football conferences and some NFL. First, Kiev talks about College Football scheduling spots and how motivation in these spots could really affect the game. Then, Lee Sterling comes on and the guys get right into some great information and takes in the big 6 football conferences (yes the AAC is now deserving of some love). Lee and Kiev give out some opinions, predictions and plays. Next, Lee gives out a few free college football plays for week 1A. Then, Kiev and Lee talk a little preseason with some quick hitters. Finally, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 1B.
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The Friday night Hot Side headlines in MLB with a Big Blowout system. There is the NFLX Opening week Totals system Play and the French Ligue 1 Game Of The Month in Soccer. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on the Tampa Bay Ray at 8:10 eastern. Tampa has won 24 of 32 vs losing teams, 16 of 21 vs A.L. Central teams and 9 of 11 on the road. Tampa has won 5 straight on Friday. Minnesota has dropped 4 of 5 vs A.L. East teams and 7 of 10 after an off day. Tampa fits a 15-3 system playing on road favorites in this range off a 5+ run road win vs an opponent off a home dog win. Pineda for the Twins has lost 3 of his last 4 at home. Look for Tampa to take the opener. On Friday a Powerful card is up and led by the French Ligue 1 Play Of The Month, an NFLX Preseason Top Play Totals system and the MLB Friday night Hot side which is backed with a Perfect Blowout system. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out as we start the weekend big. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Rays. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
I’ll be in person at Saratoga Thursday through Saturday so if you’re looking for picks on any race, or looking to meet up, just shoot me a message on Twitter or Instagram.
The Tale of the Cat is carded as Race 9 on Friday’s 10-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 1:05 p.m. EDT.
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: Stakes
Race: 9
Post Time: 5:39 PM ET
Length: 6 Furlongs
Purse: $120,000
Division: Open | 4 Years Old & Up (Which have not won a Grade Stakes Race in 2021)
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers
Field:
My Boy Tate (Manuel Franco), 5-1
Shashashakemeup (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 8-1
Bon Raison (Jorge Vegas), 8-1
Wind of Change (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 2-1
Wondrwherecraigis (Sheldon Russell), 9-5
Foolish Ghost (Joel Rosario), 4-1
Horse Preview:
MY BOY TATE finished second to fellow entrant FOOLISH GHOST his last time out in the John Morrissey Handicap. He’s ran well in similar races this year and will have Manuel Franco aboard, who he’s had success with. MY BOY TATE seems to be running better as of late with the outlier coming in the race two prior. He’s also the oldest horse in this race (7 years old) and took second in the Tale of the Cat Stakes last year. MY BOY TATE has raced at the Spa five times in his career and has been in the money four of them, so he seems to enjoy this track. He’ll seek his sixth stakes victory in this race.
SHASHASHAKEMEUP ran one of his best races of the year in an $80k AOC last out. Ricardo Santana Jr. will get the mount, on a horse he hasn’t ridden before. He’s tried his hand at some larger purse races but hasn’t had much success. His last race was encouraging so we’ll see if he can build some momentum off that. He’s one of the youngest horses in this field and will look to capture his first stakes victory. Earlier this year he ran his best race yet, to finish second in the (G3) Palos Verdes Stakes running a 110 speed figure. If he wants to have a chance in this race, he’ll need a similar performance.
BON RAISON has raced only once this year and that was in July coming off a seven month layoff, where he ran 5th in a $100k AOC. He is a multiple time stakes winner and will look for a non consecutive victory in the Tale of the Cat Stakes winning back in 2019. BON RAISON has the most experience out of any of these horses, and will need to rely upon it in this race. He raced in the (G1) Breeders Cup Sprint back in 2020 but, ended up finishing tenth. This horse has raced in some pretty big races but, every time he drops down in class, he seems to be just outside the winners circle.
WIND OF CHANGE won the Mr. Prospector Stakes his last time out back in May of this year, running a 114 speed figure. This Brazilian bred horse has some speed and should push the pace along with front runners, WONDRWHERECRAIGIS and FOOLSIH GHOST. He was shipped over from Brazil back in 2019 and just finally seems to be settling in given his past two races. Throughout 2020 and 2021 he’s raced in a few Grade 2 and 3 Stakes but, has failed to place in the money out of those four races. Given his recent speed figures and form, he should have a shot here.
WONDRWHERECRAIGIS takes on the Tale of the Cat Stakes where he’ll look to secure his first stakes victory. He returns to stakes company, after being disqualified from second to third in the Gold Fever Stakes. After that incident, he tried his luck again in the (G2) Amsterdam Stakes where he would finish fourth. He’s had success recently running in AOC races but, will face some more competitive horses here. This horse certainly has the speed to compete and will be tested early with the other front runners in this race. Most recently he ran his best speed figure of 118 to win a $50k AOC at Pimlico last month.
FOOLSIH GHOST could be the horse to beat in this race, coming off a victory in the John Morrissey Handicap his last trip out. Joel Rosario who was aboard him last race will get the mount again. He’s raced the most out of any horses in the field this year with seven starts, taking home three wins, and two second place finishes. This horse has historically run in Allowance races but, given the success he had last time out, will stick with the bump in class. We’ll see if he can have repeat performances and hold off MY BOY TATE again.
Race Preview:
Front Runner: Wind of Change, Wondrwherecraigis, Foolish Ghost
Stalk/ Off the Pace: My Boy Tate
Closer: Shashashakemeup, Bon Raison
Picks:
WIN: (1) MY BOY TATE
EXACTA BOX: 1, 5, 6
It was a battle between the (1) MY BOY TATE and the (5) WIND OF CHANGE for my pick in this race. I think both horses are severely undervalued and have a great chance to win this race. The reason I chose MY BOY TATE was because of his consistency. I believe WONDERWHERECRAIGIS last race is over valued and hasn’t seen the class of horses that will be in this race as of late. I understand he has raced well in Stakes races prior but, I think MY BOY TATE get’s it done on the fast conditions.
We went 2-0-1 last night improving our record to 30-18 in our last 48 plays including 15-6 in our last 21 plays! Tonight/this afternoon, we have a barking dog looking to execute the edge! Barking dog plays have been 11-5 in our last 16 underdog plays!
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Grab the edge for Hub’s TOP MLB PLAY for Thursday night HERE
The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays in the rubber match of their three-game series today from Fenway Park. After the Rays came from behind to grab the win in the series opener, the Red Sox had an offensive explosion in game two. Rookie right-hander Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the Rays. He enters with a 1-1 record and 4.15 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 39 innings pitched this season. In 19 innings on the road, Rasmussen has pitched to an excellent 1.05 WHIP and 2.27 xFIP. It’s unsure how many innings the rookie will pitch but will have a solid pen to back him up. The Red Sox will counter with another rookie in Tanner Houck. The righty is 0-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 25.2 innings pitched on the year. Houck has averaged less than 4 innings per start in his last 3 games, so this game should come down to the pens. These offenses have been potent all season long while being ranked 4th and 5th, respectively, in runs scored this season (586 and 575). However, Tampa Bay has scored the most runs and have hit to a 2nd ranked .390 wOBA in the past 7 days. The edge in this ballgame, as mentioned previously, is going to be the performance of the bullpens after the managers pull their young righties. Both bullpens should be fully rested as none of the top relievers were used last night. This is an advantage for the Rays since they own one of the best, if not the best, bullpens in the league. This season, Tampa’s relief arms have posted an excellent 1.14 WHIP and 3.87 xFIP and have pitched to a 10.10 K/9 rate in the past 30 days. On the other hand, Boston’s pen has been one of the worst in the past month, earning a 1.48 WHIP and 4.65 xFIP which is a bit worse than their 1.39 WHIP season average. Take the Rays +102
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Thursday card has a Rare 6* MLB Blowout from a system winning by 5 runs per game since 2012. There is also an opening Week NFL Preseason Power System play. MLB Comp Total below.
On Thursday the MLB Comp play is on the Under in the Cincy at Atlanta game at 5:10 eastern. These two have gone under 7 of 8 in the series. The Braves are on a 4 of 5 under run vs winning teams. The Reds are 7 of 8 under on the road vs a winning team and 7 of 9 in game 3 of a series. They have Gutierrez going and he has been solid allowing 4 runs in 19 innings over his last 3 starts. The Braves are going with Muller and he has quietly been solid with a 2.88 Era. Look for this game to stay under. On Thursday the lead plays are a Rare 6* MLB Blowout with a system that wins by an average 8-3 score. There is also a Powerful Week 1 Specific NFL Preseason System Play. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out. For the MLB Comp Play. Play the Reds and Braves under the total. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
I’ll be in person at Saratoga Thursday through Saturday so if you’re looking for picks on any race, or looking to meet up, just shoot me a message on Twitter or Instagram.
The Saratoga Dew Handicap is carded as Race 3 on Thursday’s 10-race program at Saratoga Race Course. The first post is 1:05 p.m. EDT.
DANCING KIKI is coming off a win in a $35k Claimer, where she was claimed by Cammarota Racing. She ran her best race of the year finishing with an 81 Equibase speed figure. She’s raced eight times this year, mostly in allowance and claiming races, with one outlier in the Critical Eye Handicap. In that race she faced off against fellow entrant MRS. ORB who ran third while DANCING KIKI finished fifth. She seems to prefer the dirt in fast conditions and if the weather stays as predicted, she may have a shot.
SIMPLY RAVISHING has only raced once this year and enters this race coming off a four month layoff. She finished sixth (last) in the G1 Ashland Stakes back in April and faced some pretty steep competition. In the G1 Ashland she set the pace early but, gave way down the stretch. She was retired after the Ashland due to a breathing problem but, Trainer Kenny McPeak tweeted out that her breathing issue has been resolved. In 2020, she won the G1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes and finished fourth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She’s won a similar race at the Spa before back in 2020 running 7f in a 100k Stakes with Saez aboard. She’ll also be taking a step down in class here but, we’ll see if the layoff affects her at all.
MAIDEN BEAUTY has has five starts this year and has finished in the money every race (5-2-2-1). She cut back in distance her last race to finish second but, has been running at a mile in her previous races this year. They move her back to her normal distance (1 Mile) and has performed well on the dirt in fast conditions, where she picked up both her wins. She’s only ever run in Allowance/ Claiming races, so this will be her first test in a Stakes race with some tougher competition.
ESPRESSO SHOT will get lengthened out here to a 1 1/8 Mile, a distance that I think she could excel at. She won a $100k Stakes race earlier this year at a Mile on the dirt. She’s faced MRS. ORB twice this year and has failed to beat her but, both were under muddy conditions. If the weather stays as predicted (91 F and Sunny), I think this will be the best horse to challenge the 6-5 favorite.
MRS. ORB is the 6-5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. She’s the oldest horse in the race but, doesn’t seem to be slowing down. In her three starts this year, she’s won two and finished third in the other. She won a similar race her last time out and ran her best speed figure of the year with a 93.
Race Preview:
Front Runner: Maiden Beauty, Simply Ravishing
Stalk/ Off the Pace: Espresso Shot, Dancing Kiki
Closer: Mrs. Orb
Picks:
WIN: (4) ESPRESSO SHOT
EXACTA: 2, 4/ 5
EXPRESSO SHOT has seen MRS. ORB in the past and knows what she can do. Given the fast conditions, I think this will be her best shot at defeating her. She’ll hang back off the pace, which I don’t think will be too fast. This should allow her to have enough left to close down the stretch when Mrs. Orb makes a push. She’s also coming off her best race of the year and will increase in distance which should benefit her as well.
SIMPLY RAVISHING could also win this race, given her success in the past. We’ll see if the breathing issue has truly been resolved but, based on her workouts, I’d say it is. She’s also the youngest horse in this race.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
