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MLB Free Pick: Red Sox vs. Rays – August 30, 2021

By
Chris R. Farley
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ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JUNE 24: Manuel Margot #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays slides home in the ninth inning after Matt Barnes #32 of the Boston Red Sox threw a wild pitch at Tropicana Field on June 24, 2021 in St Petersburg, Florida. The Rays defeated the Red Sox 1-0. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

 

Hello and happy Monday!  We hit our 2 free plays yesterday in baseball, making us 13-1 this past week and 35-14 overall the last month– LET’S GO! As I announced on Twitter, I will only be giving out ONE free play per day for the remainder of the MLB season. If you want more picks, sign up for my premium plays here or DM me on Twitter!

Red Sox/Rays over 9 (+103, BetOnline.ag), 1.5 units: The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the hottest teams in baseball and it’s their turn to host their AL East Rival on Monday; I think this one will offer plenty of offense. Out of the 12 games that Boston and Tampa have opposed each other this season, 10 of those contests have resulted in 9 runs or more and 9/12 of those contests have resulted in 10 runs or more. And what makes this bet even better– the Red Sox and Rays have been two of the best offenses in MLB over the last 2 weeks. Here’s how they rank among 30 teams in major categories:

  • wOBA: TB- 2nd, BOS- 4th
  • SLG %: TB- 2nd, BOS- 4th
  • AVG: TB- 4th, BOS- 12th
  • OBP: TB- 6th, BOS- 8th
  • Homeruns: TB- 8th, BOS- 2nd
  • Runs: TB- 1st, BOS- 8th

That’s top 5 in many categories and top 10 in all but one category between these two big-hitting lineups. Nick Pivetta (BOS RHP, 4.57 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 130 innings) and Luis Patino (TB RHP, 4.53 ERA, 1.28 WHIP over 51.2 innings) take the mound today and while they’re formidable throwers, they’re not elite. It’ll be perfectly warm at Tropicana Field and this series means a ton in the AL East, especially for a Boston team that’s dropped a full 8 games under Tampa for 1st place. One has to believe their bats will be primed and ready to explode. The over is 10-4-1 in Rays last 15 games as a favorite and 6-1 in Red Sox last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. I’m on over 9 for plus money!

August 30th Premium MLB Pick

By
Michael Fordham
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MILWAUKEE, WI - APRIL 03: Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches against the Minnesota Twins on April 3, 2020 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images)

*MLB(1u): Brewers -1.5(+125) @ Giants–8:45 PM CT

These are two of the top teams in the league, so you might be wondering why I’d be willing to lay a run-and-a-half with the road team. Well, the Brewers obviously have a significant advantage on the mound, but it’s their offense that could be the difference tonight. This Brewers lineup excels at hitting on the road; since July 1st, the Brewers are hitting .278(best in baseball) with 41 HR’s away from Miller Park. They’ll get a manageable matchup tonight facing Johnny Cueto(1.30 WHIP), and the hitting conditions in the Bay Area are much more hitter-friendly than the Brewers are accustomed to in the Midwest. Brewers SP Corbin Burnes is easily my favorite pitcher to bet on; to go along with a 2.30 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season, his 1.64 FIP indicates that he’s actually pitched better than his numbers indicate. The Giants handle righties well(especially at home), but I think they’ll be fatigued tonight coming off a 9 game road trip with zero days rest heading into tonight’s game. Burnes is allowing just 0.3 HR/9 this season, and quite frankly, he has the ability to overmatch much of this Giants order. The Brewers back-end of the bullpen is steady and can be trusted to hold a lead. This is a situational play, but the success that Burnes and this Brewers lineup(on the road) has had is too hard to ignore. 

August 30th MLB Pick

By
Michael Fordham
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*MLB(1u): Nationals F5 TT UNDER 1.5(-110) vs Phillies–6:05 PM CT

The Nationals will face one of the best SP’s in the league tonight in Phillies SP Zack Wheeler. Despite struggling over his last few starts, Wheeler still carries a 2.90 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the season in addition to an exceptional 5.67 K/BB rate. Wheeler has better numbers at home, but it’s worth noting that Nationals Park is considerably easier to pitch in than Citizens Bank Park. While the Nationals have had success against Wheeler this season, many of the guys who did that damage were shipped off at the deadline. Now, the Nationals lineup contains Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and a bunch of guys who are probably better suited for AAA. Wheeler has been steady virtually all season long, and considering the lack of talent he’ll face tonight, I’m willing to bet he gets back on track with a dominant outing.

Rob Vinciletti: U.S. Open Round 1 Tennis Preview and Selection

By
Rob Vinciletti
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The Round 1 U.S. Open Head to head knockout is on Camila Giorgi at 11:05 Am Eastern. Giorgi has won 6 of her last 7 including a tournament win at the Canadian Masters. he lost in the first Round prepping for this tournament and she should be fresh here. Simona Halep has lost 4 of her last 5 the last of which was a w.o.. She beat Giorgi 6 years ago in Miami but Giorgi is far more polished now and here big serve and sweeping ground strokes will make this a very difficult first round match for Halep. No surprise at all to see Giorgi who has the better overall recent form to advance. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

MLS Play- 8/29 POR at SEA

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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Taking a small flier on the Timbers to get a 1H lead on the Sounders tonight. Many reasons not to like the Timbers here as they just aren’t a good team. POR has not been impressive on the road this season, but they’ve shown some life in their L2 with a draw and a victory. As bad as they’ve been, they’re still alive for the last playoff spot in the West. Their recent success was against the two teams above them in the West conference, RSL and SJ.

SEA is slumping a little in their L2, with a draw and a loss. What is different about this game is SEA had 6 starters in the MLS vs Liga MX All-stars game last week. I’m looking for the Sounders to come out a little flat. I like the recent momentum the Timbers have had on the road. This is the oldest rivalry in pro US soccer, and the Timbers should come out aggressive after getting embarrassed in Portland two weeks ago.

The Sounders are the better team so that keeps me off of the outright upset. But, I believe there is decent value on POR 1H ML +410. The 1H +1/2 is juiced heavier at -131 than SEA’s -1/2 at +111 which tells me books are leaning towards the same.

POR 1H +410 0.5u

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday MLB Power System Play

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Sunday card has the NFLX Total of the Year Headlining along with a 5* CFL Power System Play, MLB and Soccer. MLB Comp Play below.

The MLB Comp play is on Tampa Bay on the Run at 1:05 eastern. Tampa has won 11 of 12 here , 38 of 51 in game 3 of a series and 7 of 8 as a road favorite.. The Orioles have lost 50 of 60 vs teams that are .600 or better and have dropped 6 of 7 in game 3 of a series. Baltimore has lost 8 straight starts with Watkins on the hill all of which were by more than a Run. The Rays fit a 60-21 road favorite system as well. Look for the Rays to take another. On Sunday a Powerful Card is up with our Highest rated triple perfect NFLX Total of the year, Early soccer, a 5* CFL System play and our Exclusive MLB System Plays. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on as we end the week big. For the MLB Comp Play. Go with Tampa on the run line. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Laying the Points with FarleyBets: AFC/NFC East Preview

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after throwing a touchdown pass in the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/John Munson)

 

In episode 11 of Laying the Points, Chris discusses:

  • His thoughts on the NFL Preseason and the latest NFL news,
  • a preview of the NFC East,
  • and a preview of the AFC East!

Check it out and prepare for the NFL season every week with this podcast!

Chris also has Premium Picks every day!
Click the hyperlink to sign up for my favorite plays on a recurring basis!

 

Free Premium Pick 2-Pack with Analysis for Saturday, August 28th

By
Nick Hub
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We went 0-1 last night so we look to bounce right back today and we have 3 Premium plays for clients.  I am giving away 2 of them below here at The Odds Breakers!  The Top Play today is an barking dog and we have been hitting 16-5 (76%) in our last 21 underdog plays!! Grab it HERE!

Our record of late is 12-2 (86%) in our last 14 plays, 31-12 (72%) in our last 43 plays and 46-24 (66%) in our last 70 plays. 

Get a DISCOUNTED monthly all access pass HERE at The Odds Breakers or pick from 11 different subscriptions at the SPORTS PICK HUB.

The Milwaukee Brewers and the Minnesota Twins continue their 3 game set today at Target Field.  Righty Adrian Houser will take the mound for the Brewcrew. He is 7-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 107.1 innings pitched on the year.  On the road this season, Hauser has pitched to a 3.93 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 4.22 xFIP and owns a 2.18 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, a very low .190 BABIP and a very high 5.48 xFIP (more than 3 runs higher than his ERA).  Left-hander Charlie Barnes will get the nod for the Twins.  He is 0-3 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.63 WHIP across 23.1 innings pitched this season.  In what is a very small sample size, Barnes has posted a low .241 and a high 5.30 xFIP in 9.2 innings at home this season.  In the past week, both of these teams rank in the top 10 in OPS, wOBA and wRC+.  Minnesota has hit the 5th most homeruns (64) and own a 7th best ISO (.195) versus right-handed pitching at home this season while Milwaukee has been excellent on the road this season hitting to a 2nd best .322 wOBA and scoring the 5th most runs (317). I expect both starters to regress closer to the mean today while the offenses look to take advantage of the matchup.  Take Over 10 runs

The Boston Red Sox and the Cleveland Indians play game 2 of their 4-game set today at Progressive Field.  Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi will get the start for the Sox. He is 10-8 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.17 WHIP across 145 innings pitched this season.  On the road, Eovaldi owns a 5.02 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and a 3.92 xFIP this season.  The Indians will counter with rookie Cal Quantrill.  The right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 109.2 innings on the year.  Since the break, Quantrill has posted a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP amd 3.11 FIP and owns a 2.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home this season.  Both of these teams come into this game owning a top 5 wOBA in the past 7 days and hit a combined 27 homeruns during that stretch. Additionally, the offenses on both squads have been hitting .264 each in the past 30 days, good enough for 4th in the league in the past month.  Boston’s bullpen comes in owning the worst WHIP (1.61), 4th worst opponent batting average (.273) and 3rd worst ERA (5.80) in the past month. Cleveland has a better pen but it hasn’t been dazzling as they have pitched to a 3.90 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 4.40 xFIP over that same stretch.   On paper this looks to be a great pitching matchup but I see these thriving bats to continue to produce with the Indians coming out on top in the later innings.  Take Over 9 runs

NFL – Full Season Preview Part 4 – NFC South/West

By
Shawn Knoche
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We have now reached the final full weekend of Pre-Season which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 5 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures there.  I have gone through the entire schedule, game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top 5 plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche

NFC South – The Ageless Wonder, GOAT, luckiest man alive, whatever you want to call Tom Brady it doesn’t matter. Bottom line is he wins. He’s back for his 22nd season, and is defending champ once again after getting his 7th Super Bowl win with the Bucs. After getting in the playoffs as a wild card the Bucs have the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL and should be the class of this division as they lose almost no one. In New Orleans Drew Brees is now retired. Is Jameis Winston the answer? We will find out soon. They still have Alvin Kamara on offense, but the receiver core is a huge question mark. Gone from defense are the top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, linebacker Kwon Alexander and one of the better cover corners Janoris Jenkins. I don’t see this team being as strong as last year unless Winston learned to stop throwing interceptions during his year on the bench. The Falcons made the decision to not draft a QB with the 4th pick which means this is still Matt Ryan’s team. Arthur Smith who helped turn around Ryan Tannenhill comes in as Head Coach to try and revamp the offense. The thing is The Falcons weren’t awful last year. -18 point differential on a 4-12 team makes you wonder about how the season could have gone. The defense has been the major issue the last few seasons and if they improve this team could be more of a threat than most are predicting including me. The Panthers will turn to former top pick Sam Darnold. I love Matt Rhule as a coach and hope he can get things figured out. Getting CMC back should improve their offense which struggled mightily last season. Their defense is young and improving, but I still think needs one more year of solid draft pieces. The NFC South gets the NFC East and AFC East as common opponents.

Tampa Bay 11-6

New Orleans 8-9

Atlanta 7-10

Carolina 6-11

NFC West – To be honest, I had to go back through my game by game projections once I got done with the NFC West. It was the last division I completed and something just wasn’t adding up. The reason it wasn’t adding up is I ended up with all four teams in this division winning 10 games.  Toughest division in football no question. They are going to beat up on each other and then beat up everyone else in the NFL. I am drinking the kool-aid when it comes to the Los Angeles Rams. It’s not just because of the trade for Matt Stafford who with the weapons on the outside is going to carve up opposing defenses. It’s because they have Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey back. They’ll have to replace a few pieces around them and a DC, but with those two as anchors they should be formidable once again. The 49ers should bounce back from their 6-10 campaign last year. The injury bug got them bad as they led the NFL with 32 IR transactions. The question on offense will be whether they turn the keys to the car over to Trey Lance or stick with Jimmy G. Garoppolo has been successful when healthy going 24-9 as a starter in SF. The defense will have a new coordinator, but also has 4 1st round picks on the line. The back end is also solid and if they stay healthy this unit should be a top 5 performer in the league. Seattle won this division in 2020 and should compete again. Russell Wilson had another great season, but ended up struggling down the stretch. His protection was rough last year and they get a big upgrade at guard in Gabe Jackson from the Raiders. The defense was average last year and their pass rush is not good. Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright are not getting any younger. The trade for Jamaal Adams should greatly improve the secondary as they look to recreate a new Legion of Boom. The Cardinals were 8-8 with a highly efficient offense. Kyler Murray makes the offense go and if he takes another step forward like I expect they will put up some serious points this year. Getting Green at WR gives Murray a great 1-2 punch with Hopkins good as any other team in the league. On defense their secondary has taken a step back, but if JJ Watt stays healthy even getting a year older, he can still disrupt on the line. The NFC West gets the NFC North and AFC South as common opponents

Los Angeles 13-4

San Francisco 12-5

Seattle 10-7

Arizona 10-7

Free Picks: Los Angeles Rams over 9.5 -127 This is my number 1 team total win play. Truth be told I got this line in early August and you likely won’t find it now. Most books are up to 10.5 with plus money on the over. I’d still play it confidently, but not quite as good as where it was a month ago.

 

 

MLB Play 8/28- TOR @ DET

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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This one seems like a no brainer with Toronto’s Manoah facing Urena in what looks like it will be a bullpen game for Detroit. We all know Manoah has been great and Urena is fresh off the 10-day IL. With only 61% of the money on TOR full game I wonder if I’m missing something.

Toronto’s roster looks intact, maybe there’s questions about Toronto’s motivation as they are almost out of the postseason picture. Regardless, the starting pitching matchup is lopsided here. With Manoah as one of the best pitchers this young team has, I have to believe the team will rally around him. Because it’s a look at the starters, I’ll keep it to the F5.

TOR F5 -1/2 (-140) 1.4u

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