We went 1-1 yesterday, making us 9-2 overall in MLB betting over the last 5 days. Can’t complain about that! Happy Hump Day, people! (is it football season yet…?)

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White Sox/Twins under 9 (-110), 1.5 units: This has the signs of an under game for a few reasons. Firstly, I don’t know how motivated the White Sox will be today. Chicago has a big series coming up against the Yankees. Then they’ll have another contentious series against the Athletics. And both are at home. After another rather meaningless series against the Twins (CHW leads the AL Central by 10.5 games), the Sox are probably pretty excited to leave Minneapolis tonight. When benign situations like this exist, it usually affects the offense more than the pitching. I certainly can’t expect it to alter Lance Lynn’s game (2.04 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 114.2 innings), since he’s been about as dominant and stable as any pitcher in MLB this season. His 2.78 xERA against an uneventful lineup today has me holding onto plenty of confidence in the 6’5″ ace. The Twins will roll out Bailey Ober (4.99 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 52.1 innings) Wednesday. Ober has been working on his fast-ball movement and other improvements to his game, but it hasn’t worked very well. Still, Ober at least cares about his performance today and he’ll at least attempt to throw off the White Sox bats. Chicago is 2nd only to the Rockies in homeruns over the last 2 weeks (25), but despite all their hype they’re mid-tier in every other offensive category. Take the under.

Astros -1.5 (-130), 2 units: It’s pretty startling how different the Rockies are at home, isn’t it? Over the past two weeks, with most of their games played at Coors Field, the Rockies have led MLB in homeruns and they’re either top 5 or #1 in most offensive categories. Slugging %, wOBA, batting average, OBP, runs, RBIs– you name it, Colorado is at the top. Coming off 4 straight wins, they started a brand new series against the Astros yesterday and as we all know by now, the obvious happened. Houston blanked the Rockies 5-0 in a game where the Rockies looked completely helpless. Sadly, the NL West bottom-feeder can only count 13 of their 51 wins on the road this season. In another early slot Wednesday, they’ll face off against Framber Valdez (3.22 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 78.1 innings) as the Astros look to continue winning at home and hope to further separate themselves from the Athletics in the AL West race. Valdez allows a few too many walks (4.14/9 innings) but a 3.51 xERA, 3.62 xFIP, a healthy 77.2% LOB rate and other figures show a pitcher that mostly exhibits great command. He may not need to be at his best against Colorado’s split personality on the road, especially with Anthony Senzatela (4.73 ERA, 1.41 WHIP over 99 innings) on the mound. Senzatela is a solid enough pitcher for the Rockies, certainly not their worst arm, but he’s really struggled on the road this year. He’s allowed at least 3 runs in 6 of his 7 away starts at an average of 4.77 frames per contest. We’d like this even more if Bregman could finally return to the Astros lineup but this is still a 2 unit bet for me. Houston is at home, they have the better pitcher, and the Rockies look lost away from Coors Field. Take the Astros by margin.

Lean Marlins (+140): This is just a lean for me because of the undependable Marlins’ offense, but I’m not too keen on Ryan Weathers (4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 69.2 innings) here in this spot. According to FanGraphs, “Over 34.1 IP in April and May, Weathers posted a 1.31 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, with a 20.6% K%. Since June 1, Weathers has a 6.12 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 32.1 IP, with a 14.7% K%.” The negative regression train seems to be sold out on Weathers and while he could improve today against Miami’s bats, who tend to grant improvement for a lot of pitchers, I just can’t trust him. Sandy Alcantara (3.70 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 136.1 innings), on the other hand, should absolutely experience positive regression today. Fresh off a stinker against the Rockies where he allowed 10 runs in only 3.2 innings, Alcantara had an amazing performance one game prior against the Yankees, permitting just 2 hits and 0 runs over 7 innings. This sort of up-and-down tendency is on brand for the 25 year old and I imagine he’ll be ready to unleash his best stuff today. Just a lean, but Miami has some real value here.

One game was postponed and the NRFI on Miami/San Diego hit, making us 6-0 the last 3 days and 8-1 the last 4. Let’s keep rollin’!

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Angels/Blue Jays over 7.5 (game 1, -115), 1.5 units: This is one of those abbreviated double-header games but I care not. These two power-hitting offenses only need to average 1 run per inning and, especially with the way the Jays have been slugging, that shouldn’t be a difficult hill to climb. The Angels’ bats have been ice cold the last 2 weeks, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. Steve Matz (4.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP over 96.1 innings) will give them another challenge today but Matz is too inconsistent to trust. After a needed day off, this is a decent spot for the Angels’ lineup to reawaken. The Angels will send Chris Rodriguez to the mound Tuesday, the 23 year old righty who’s mostly served in a relief role for LAA, and he hasn’t done it very well. Rodriguez had an awful June with an ERA of 9.00 and after some time off, returned to pitch 6 innings against the Rangers last week, permitting 4 runs on 4 hits. The Blue Jays enter Tuesday as one of the hottest offenses in MLB, ranking in the top 5 in nearly every category over the last 14 days. The Jays could eclipse this total alone and if the Angels help them out, this could potentially fly into the double digits. Take the over.

Phillies (+150), 1.5 unit: Let’s take a shot on the red-hot Phillies! Philadelphia has now won 8 games in a row and they’ve eclipsed the Mets for 1st place in the NL East. Led by tremendous performances from Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler, the team from the City of Brotherly Love is laying waste to their rivals in a multitude of ways. According to the Philly Voice, Harper is ranked in the top 5 in the National League in 4 different key categories, including offensive WAR, slugging %, on base %, and runs created. He’s also 7th overall in batting average. He’s been absolutely electric all summer. Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler is making a very strong case for the NL Cy Young Award (+200). Wheeler leads the NL in pitching WAR, strikeouts, innings pitched, and complete games. He’s also 7th overall in ERA. Today the home team will start their pre-season ace in Aaron Nola (4.49 ERA, 1.16 WHIP over 126.1 innings). Nola’s numbers are down a notch this year but he still has the talent and tools to command against great teams. He had a poor showing last time at the mound against Washington, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings. After bad performances he tends to improve and we’re counting on his positive regression in this contest.

Enter the reigning champions. The LA Dodgers travel to Philadelphia Tuesday fresh off a series win against their in-city foe. The Dodgers are now 4 games behind the Giants and passing them won’t be easy to do any time soon– San Francisco travels to Arizona and should be able to stack up more wins over the next few days. Max Scherzer (2.75 ERA, 0.89 WHIP over 118 innings) looked really solid in his debut with the Dodgers, allowing just 2 runs over 7 innings. The 37 year old can still go the distance but a subpar HR allowance (1.45/9 innings) could mean trouble tonight in Philly. It’s difficult projecting negative regression with Scherzer, but this is a nerve-racking spot in front of an excited crowd and the man is on the latter end of his career. I’m betting on offense in this one and right now that means I see value in the Phillies. At home and defending a winning streak against last year’s World Series’ Champions? I reckon they’ll will be quite motivated, too. Take Philly.