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MLB Picks and Predictions – August 9, 2021

Milwaukee's ace Freddy Peralta on the mound.

 

We went undefeated for a second day in a row, hitting the Giants (ML) and Royals (F5) Sunday. That’s 5-0 the last 2 days and 7-1 the last 3. Onto Monday’s small slate!

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Brewers (-180), 2 units: At the time of writing this (Sunday evening) the moneyline is -180 at most books but I imagine it’ll rise the closer we get to first pitch. Adding to the exceptional depth of Milwaukee’s rotation is Freddy Peralta (2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP over 114 innings), who they will start Monday. Peralta has had a scintillating year, one without any month where he’s eclipsed an ERA over 3.00, one that boasts an LOB rate that’s still at 85% (HARD to do at this point in the season), and one where his velocity and command has never looked sharper. Fresh off a tough series loss to the Giants (which we cashed on), the Brewers head to Wrigley Field against a damaged Cubs team in the hopes that they pull ahead in the NL Central. The Reds are only far 5 games behind. The Cubs will start Alec Mills (4.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 69.1 innings), who’s far from the worst they have to offer. Mills has been better since coming off the IL in June. According to FanGraphs, “Before the IL stint (back), he had a 5.96 ERA, 5.2 K/9, and 1.46 WHIP. Since returning, he has a 3.76 ERA, 7.5 K/9, and 1.40 WHIP.” Not too shabby. The issue is Chicago’s offense. Traders at the deadline, the Cubs own a rather shallow lineup and the results are clear. They’ve lost 4 straight and 10 of their last 12. The Cubs just got whacked by the White Sox last night so this may be a better spot for redemption, but Milwaukee also lost a second-straight heartbreaker against San Francisco Sunday. The Brew-Crew owns one of the better offenses over the last few weeks and Peralta shouldn’t have any stark challenges against the the Cubs’ below average offense. Take Milwaukee.

Marlins/Padres No Run in First Inning (-125), 2 units: Miami’s Zach Thompson (2.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP over 42.2 innings) and San Diego’s Joe Musgrove (2.87 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 122.1 innings) face off in the late game Monday night. Both pitcher’s have elite command (typically), although Thompson has suffered as of late. After a great start to 2021, the 6’7″ right-hander has faced a melee of power-hitting teams through July and into August, including the Mets, Yankees, Padres, Phillies, and Braves. He survived that onslaught with pretty good numbers. Musgrove has only allowed 2 runs over his last 19 innings. I’ll stay away from the total since late-game-offensive-explosions seems to be occurring regularly now, but I expect both of these stud pitchers to come away with a solid 1st inning. These games are also getting more contentious as the playoff races heat up. Give me an NRFI here for 2 units.

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday MLB Pick And Preview

The MLB Comp Play for Sunday is on Tampa Bay at 1:00 eastern. The Rays have owned the Orioles this year going 10-1 and averaging over 7 runs per game. The Rays are 9-1 vs teams that have a .400 or less Win percentage  and 5-1 as a road favorite. Baltimore has lost 6 of 8 on Sundays. The Orioles are 14-40 vs winning teams. They have Lopez going and he has a 5.91 Era on the year. Tampa has won both starts Wacha has made against Baltimore. Look for the Rays to take this one. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports

UFC 265 Free Plays – Sports Investing

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Cyril Gane vs Derek Lewis +280

This heavyweight fight is going to be huge.  Cyril has entered the UFC as a monster 2 short years ago on August 10th and hasn’t looked back.   This cat only 9-0 and already contending with the best of the best and the Frenchman is poised to try and improve his status vs The Black Beast Derek Lewis.   Now if you listened to my podcasts earlier, you know very well that I have said good and bad things about Lewis.   At 36 years old with a 25-7 record, Lewis tends to show up against some of the biggest heavyweight names beating Alexander Volkov, Francis Ngannou (believe it or not) and as of recent, highly ranked Curtis Blaydes.  When Lewis has stepped down in class, he has lost to guys like Junior Dos Antos and Mark Hunt which is still making me scratch my head.  Good thing for Derek is that Cyril is at top three contender here.   Derek has the best roundhouse and uppercut punches in the business and that is why he has 20 Kos, 1 submission and 4 decisions.   The knock on Lewis in the past is that he can’t go the distance but he proven that he could back in 2020 vs Ilir Latifi and 2018 vs Francis, the champ himself.  If Lewis is this powerful then why is he such a dog you ask?  Well simply put, Cyril Gane even with only 9 fights has shown his abilities as an amazing technical fighter.  His last win vs Volkov showed that he can beat a man of any size and strength.  Cyril has 3 Kos, 3 submissions and 3 decisions.  I will tell you right now that Gane will probably not be submitting Lewis being that it has only happened to Derek once and Derek at 20+ more pounds is just too big a man to get into compromising situations.  Instead I think Gane plays this one out not risking his jaw like he surprised us before vs Rosenstruik.  Gane doesn’t want to mess with that wonderful undefeated record and he will probably try and use leg kicks and Jabs to outscore Lewis and win by decision.   Gane does have a 2 inch reach advantage and is the all around better technical fighter landing 5.1 significant strikes per minute to Lewis’s 2.6.   Can I lay -400 on Bon Gamin?  Heck no, and especially not against a guy that beat Francis Ngannau, but instead, I think playing two angles in this fight is the best.  I think if Lewis Wins, it’s because he most likely kocked out Gane but the knockout price is only 50 cents higher at +350.   I kinda could also see Lewis winning by decision if he gets some knockdowns and holds his ground blocking leg kicks so the +290 is just fine.  What is most likely to happen in my eyes is that Gane wins this fight after a 5 round decision by out-striking Lewis as stated before and I think that the +200 for Gane to win in the distance is best betting on the other side.   If Gane get’s Lewis within the distance with a knee or something, I will tip my cap to him.  If this fight gets to decision, we win.

Gane by points/decision +200 – 1.5 star

Lewis +290 – 1.5 star

Parlay time!   I am going to take Miles Johns -208 & Rafael Fiziev -325 – pays out -108 – 1 star premium shared – Both Miles and Fiziev are superior to their opponents and I think they are both slightly underpriced.  Gonna throw a unit on the pair that pays well.

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UFC 265 Picks and Predictions – August 7, 2021

Derrick Lewis at his weigh in prior to his big fight at UFC 265.

 

UFC 265 is here! The interim heavyweight championship is on the line as the ferocious KO power of Derrick Lewis collides with the intimidating and well-rounded Ciryl Gane. The card takes place from Houston, Lewis’ hometown, in front of what should be a raucous crowd and a fantastic card. Here are my favorite bets:

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Vincente Luque/Michael Chiesa Does NOT Go the Distance (-105), 1.5 units: This should be a really great battle between two evenly matched fighters (it’s virtually a pick-em for a reason). And even though it’s only 3 rounds, my money’s on the fight NOT going the distance. Vincente Luque has thrived in the UFC. His only losses over the last 5 years were to Leon Edwards and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson– certainly nothing for any fighter to hang their head over. Carrying a 13-3 welterweight record into UFC 265, Luque has won 18 of his 20 professional fights before the final bell. That’s pretty astounding. Whether it by TKO/KO punches/kicks or whether it’s by a sneaky submission, Luque has a unique arsenal of ways that he can beat you. The longer and bigger fighter is no doubt Michael Chiesa. His move up to the 170 pound division in 2018 has proven successful, especially after 2 dominant decision wins against Rafael dos Santos and Neil Magny. I like the fight to end early for one simple reason– Luque aggressively pushes the pace on offense but lacks defensive prowess (although that often doesn’t seem to matter, the man has a steel chin). Chiesa has a distinct size advantage reminiscent of Wonderboy and the cardio to surprise even the most gifted fighters if they get too close. Luque will control the pace (which will be rapid, no doubt) and Chiesa won’t be shy to respond. One way or the other, I don’t foresee these two fighters expression any sort of caution. I’m on the distance.

Pedro Munhoz (-108), 1.5 units: I’m going to cut this one short and sweet because I’ve been up writing/researching since 5:30am and I’m (expletive) exhausted. Jose Aldo looks good at bantamweight but I just wasn’t very impressed by his victory over Marlon Vera. Munhoz has been around longer in this division and he’s faced considerably better opponents. Aldo may look to land precision kicks and punches early, which is his modus operandi, but he’ll be more cautious against Munhoz and I don’t think it’ll bode well for him in the long run. Munhoz has a “well-rounded offense, sporting five knockouts and eight submissions in 19 wins, (and) Munhoz is also one of the more durable bantamweights in the division, with all five losses coming by way of decision.” (MMAMania.com) After two straight losses to two of the best in the division in Frankie Edgar and Aljamain Sterling, Munhoz’s last win against Jimmy Rivera was the redemption he needed. I think he keeps that momentum going into this fight and steals a victory from Aldo in the later rounds.

Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO (+300), 2 units: If the “Black Beast” is going to win this fight and lay claim to the interim heavyweight belt, it’s going to be by TKO/KO (okay, he had 1 submission win earlier in his career but come on, let’s be real). This is an absurd number on a knockout master and that’s why I’m putting more than my usual unit-allocation on it– it’s simply an opportunity I can’t pass up. Lewis has been ascending the heavyweight ranks for quite some time now. After tough losses to Junior Dos Santos and Daniel Cormier back in 2018/2019, Lewis has now won 4 bouts in a row. He also beat the current #1 heavyweight in Francis Ngannou (albeit probably a different version of Ngannou but still, that’s impressive). Ciryl Gane has put together an impressive history of wins, too. Having never lost in his professional career (9-0-0), Gane has laid waste to names like Volkov, Dos Santos, Rozenstruik, and Boser. His terrifying size and power is complimented by an agile and clever approach– he has a distinct way of avoiding big shots while he picks apart his opponents with his long reach and exceptional movement. As skilled as Gane is, his chin has never really been tested.

If you’ve followed Lewis’ career you know he’s as tough as it gets. Unless you submit or knockout the Black Beast, it’s unlikely you’ll secure a victory. In this way I think Gane has a style that could favor Lewis. Gane will look to keep his distance and survey the bigger cage; Lewis will be marching forward with ferocity. In front of a home crowd and apparently after his best training camp yet, I have to believe that Lewis will be the best version of himself tonight. Over 5 rounds, I’m willing to lay 2 units that Derrick will catch the undefeated Gane in a spot the younger contender isn’t expecting and that’ll be all – she – wrote. My money is on Lewis in H-Town!

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Saturday MLB From Alan Cashman

MLB

Seattle at NY Yankees 1:05 pm

Flexen vs Heaney

Pick: SEA Over 3.5 LEAN

Seattle bats are far from on fire but facing Heaney may be what they

need to wake up.SEA batting .333, SLG .656 vs Heaney
Heaney has allowed 3 or more runs in 6 of his last 7 starts

Heaney has a 7.13 ERA in his last 7 starts

Heaney has allowed 4 runs in each of his 2 starts vs SEA this season

Opponents have scored 4 or more runs in 7 of last 8 starts by Heaney

MLB

Boston at Toronto 3:07 pm GAME 1 (7 innings)

Pivetta vs Ray

Pick: TOR Over 3.5 SMALL

Pivetta has struggled vs Toronto. The Jays just need 4 runs.

Pivetta 7.39 ERA last 5 starts vs TOR

Pivetta 5.39 ERA in day games

Pivetta has allowed 4 or more runs in each of his last 5 starts vs TOR

TOR roster batting .348, SLG 607 vs Pivetta

Pivetta 6.82 career ERA vs TOR

Saturday Free Plays – Flexen The Muscles

Been an up and down week in MLB, but still living on the good side with a 7.5% ROI. Looking to close out the weekend strong. Couple of solid plays on the board for Saturday

The Mariners look to break through against the Yankees in the early game today. Their “Ace” Chris Flexen takes the mound. He is certainly not a world beater, but he keeps guys confused and avoids barrels. His changeup has a positive 4.8 pitch value, and should keep what’s left of the Yankees lineup off balance today. On the other side Andrew Heaney rolls in with a hefty 6.89 ERA in his last seven starts between the Angels and the Yanks. He’ll strike some guys out, but gives up tons of hard contact. He couldn’t get guys out in LA, and moving to the hitter friendly Yankee Stadium isn’t going to help his cause. I’m taking the plus money dog here to steal this one in New York. Playing Seattle +175 for 1.5 units.

Other game I am looking at is San Diego vs Arizona. Let’s face it, The Diamonbacks stink. That being said, the top of their lineup has finally gotten healthy and they have shown up and scored some runs over the past few weeks. They are averaging 4 runs per game over the past week and have shown at least a little life. They face up against Yu who has a 5.50 ERA over his last seven starts, and got rocked his last two against some sub-par teams in the Rockies and Marlins. Taylor Widener is on the hill for the Snakes and he rolls in with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP on the season and has given up 5 ER in each of his last three starts. The books are thinking the Snakes don’t score today, but I think they’re off and I could see this one flying over the total. Playing Over 8 -114 for 1.5 Units

 

 

MLB Picks and Predictions – August 7, 2021

A Reds batter, primed at home plate against the lowly Pirates.

 

We went 2-1 on Friday and in baseball, a winning day is worth celebrating in these parts. Onto Saturday, onto more wins!

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Astros -1.5 (-105), 1.5 units: Something has to give for Houston here. The Astros have lost 5 of their last 6 games and now they’ve opened the door for the Athletics to creep closer to their 1st placed spot in the AL West. Despite their transgressions and even without Bregman, they’ve maintained a top 10 offense over the last 2 weeks. Michael Pineda (3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 76.1 innings) will get the nod for the Twins, who have now won 2 in a row at Minute Maid Park (that sounds as absurd as it is), and Pineda has been pretty stellar lately. Allowing only 3 runs or less in his last 3 games, Pineda still owns a profile I don’t love (he allows too many home-runs, his LOB rate isn’t exceptional and his xERA/FIP marks speak to inevitable negative regression). This is a prime spot for him to get exposed today against an angry Houston lineup, one that almost came back last night and will look to carry that energy into today. Luis Garcia (3.49 ERA, 1.13 WHIP over 100.2 innings), on the other hand, is supremely due for positive regression. Garcia has had 2 bad road starts in a row but he thrives at home. In 11 previous spots at Minute Maid, Garcia has allowed more than 1 run on only 2 occasions. The Astros are 70-28 in their last 98 home games vs. a team with a losing record. In the first 3 games against Minnesota this year, Houston beat them by margins of 2, 3, and 11 points. Expect a motivated, frustrated, and considerably better Astros team to win by margin today.

Mets/Phillies No Run in 1st Inning (+115), 1.5 units: Two power-hitting teams give us a plus money opportunity Saturday as the Mets visit Philadelphia in game 2 of their latest series. A low-scoring affair between two NL East rivals (the Phillies are now 1/2 game ahead of New York for the top spot) behind the able arms of Kyle Gibson and Marcus Stroman set the stage for this contentious 3-game matchup. Ranger Suarez (PHI, 5-3, 1.04 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over 43.1 innings) and Tylor Megill (NYM, 1-1, 2.68 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 40.1 innings) will take the mounds for their respective units today and we see the total rising (9.5) because of it. Not so fast, my friends. These bucks are young but they’re also full of talent. Suarez hasn’t been given a long-leash just yet but when he’s on the mound, he commands it. In his 28 times on the dirt throughout this season, most of which were for 2 innings or less, Suarez has allowed more than 1 run only once. In 18 of those showings, he permitted a big fat goose egg (that’s 0 points for the layperson out there). We’re unsure if he can hold onto the same numbers if he started serving for longer stints but we don’t need him to since we’re only betting on the 1st inning. Megill has started in 8 contests and his numbers are equally impressive. He got obliterated in his last game against Miami but July showcased just how impressive the 6’7″ youngin’ can be, flexing a 1.04 ERA and never allowing more than 1 run in over 26 innings on the dirt. This is a highly competitive series between two good teams and while these fresh pitchers will be nervous, the bats will feel that pressure, too. I expect a strong start from each thrower as the battle trudges on– give me the NRFI for a nice pay-day.

Reds -1.5 (-105), 2 units: The Reds are SPANKING the Pirates at home and why should I believe today will be any different? Milwaukee keeps on winning (and they embarrassed/swept the Reds after the All-Star break) but Cincinnati won’t go away. The Reds have won 8 of their last 10 games and, despite how consistent the Brewers have been, they still have an outside shot at the NL Central title at 7 games back from 1st place. The Pirates aren’t doing themselves any favors by starting Mitch Keller (7.05 ERA, 1.78 WHIP over 52.1 innings) but they really don’t have much of a choice. Pittsburgh’s season has been over for awhile now and it’s showing. They’re 18-39 on the road and they’ve only won 7 out of 20 games after the break (35%). Of those 13 losses, 12 were by margins of 2 runs or more. YIKES. The Reds will start Vladimir Gutierrez (4.39 ERA, 1.36 WHIP over 67.2 innings) Saturday. Gutierrez gives you consistently “good not great” starts but he’s had a few gems recently, holding power-hitting offenses like the Mets and Brewers to only 1 run each over 13 innings. Honestly, Cincinnati could start my 66 year old father and I’d probably still play on their side today. The Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the home team to blow out the Pirates 3 times in a row.

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Rob Vinciletti: Saturday MLB Comp Play

Saturday card is up and is led by an Executive Level TIER 1 Move. We also have a Powerful Soccer Platinum Supreme move and the Late Canadian Football League Play. MLB Comp play below.

The MLB Comp Play for Saturday is on San Diego on the Run line at 8:40 eastern. The Padres have a plethora of advantages here including a big pitching edge with Darvish who has won 6 of 7 vs Arizona. The Padres have won 6 of 9 here in the series and 28 of the last 40 at home. Arizona is a dismal 3-31 as a road dog of 120 or more and 11-43 vs a Pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Arizona has also dropped 21 of 27 on Saturdays and with Widener and his 5 Era here we will back the Padres to come away with a multiple run win. On Saturday we start the day with an Executive LEVEL TIER 1 MLB Move and a Platinum Supreme Soccer Move. There is also the Canadian Football League Play going later on. Se us on facebook to Jump on now as we are poised to have a big day. For the MLB Comp play. Go with San Diego on the Run line. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Free “Barking Dog” Premium Pick with Analysis for Friday, August 6th

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The Cleveland Indians will begin a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers tonight at Progressive Field. These two teams have been heading in the opposite direction. Since May 26, the Tigers are 35-28 and the Indians are 26-33. Rooke right-hander Matt Manning will toe the rubber first for Detroit. In eight starts this year, he is 2-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP this season. Manning is 0-3 on the road with a horrible 8.20 ERA this season.  However, he does have a better, not great, 1.39 WHIP and 5.16 xFIP, which is less than 3 runs than the inflated ERA.  Additionally, he owns a 3.78 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP in 16.2 innings pitched in the 2nd half of the season. Cleveland will start 26-year-old right-hander Cal Quantrill who is 2-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 30 appearances this season.  Quantrill is 1-0 with an impressive 1.17 ERA in 23 innings pitched since the All-Star break but he also owns a 4.91 xFIP and a very lucky .222 BABIP, so we could see some regression tonight from the righty.  Detroit comes into this ballgame with a 110 wRC+ in the past 30 days, which is good enough for 9th in the league.  The opposite goes for Cleveland as they own the 4th worst wRC+ during the past month.  Surprisingly, the Tigers also have a top 10 offense on the road against right-handers hitting .241, 52 homeruns, .300 BABIP and 97 wRC+.  The Indians offense, on the other hand, has been inconsistent at home this season ranking in the bottom 3rd of the league while producing a .234 batting average, .310 wOBA and 91 wRC+. I look for Manning to improve and Quantrill to regress tonight. Good value in Detroit. Take the Tigers +132

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MLB Picks and Predictions – August 6, 2021

Brewers' ace pitcher Corbin Burnes on the mound.

 

Happy Friday! Here are 3 free picks for today’s big MLB slate!

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White Sox/Cubs under 9 (-110), 2 units: The battle of the Windy City is on Friday as the White Sox and Cubs begin their first series of the season. I think it’ll be a pitcher’s dual. The White Sox offense has been very pedestrian lately, ranking at the bottom of MLB in every conceivable offensive category over the last 2 weeks (wOBA, batting average, slugging percentage, runs, etc.). The Cubs are the same as always– mid-tier, inconsistent, and often underwhelming behind their bats. Both teams’ aces will take the mound in what should be a slow-paced contest. Lance Lynn (2.07 ERA, 1.05 WHIP over 108.2 innings) has been dominant this season, as the numbers indicate, and I like him even more coming off an unusually weak performance against Cleveland in his last start. Before that last showing, Lynn had a streak of 5 straight games where he permitted only 1 run or less. I expect more of that Lynn in the early game Friday. The Cubs were sellers at the trade deadline but one of their only stable pieces will be sent out today in Kyle Hendricks (3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 128.2 innings). After a bad April, Hendricks has held onto a 3.00 ERA or less in 3 straight months. Since the White Sox bats have been ice cold and Hendricks has been so consistent, I don’t see him having much issue today either. The under is 7-1-1 in the White Sox last 9 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. I’m on the under.

Orioles first 5 (+110), 1.5 units: I love to play on the Orioles in good spots at home and this feels like another opportunity to do so. John Means (2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP over 88.2 innings) looked more like himself in his last start. Baltimore’s favorite pitcher has needed time to settle in after coming back from a long-term IL layoff but he showed great command at Detroit a week ago, allowing only 4 hits and 1 earned run over 6 innings. Following an embarrassing showing in the Bronx in 2 out of 3 games this week, which is business as usual for the O’s, this is a good spot for some redemption after a needed day off. Tampa will start Ryan Yarbrough (4.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 114 innings) Friday. In 16 starts, Yarbrough has held his opponent’s bats to 1 run or less only 7 times, a mark of 43.7%. He’s consistent in that he has maintained an ERA around that 4.80 mark in every month this season. That’s not great. The Rays have been slugging well over the last 2 weeks but their batting average and on-base-percentage is in the bottom half of the league. If Means can contain Tampa’s power bats, there’s little reason to not believe that they won’t be ahead at the halfway mark. I’m betting he can, and that they will.

Brewers (-145), 2 units: This is a much better spot for Milwaukee. The Giants survived (and cashed us a few bets) last night after a remarkable 9th inning comeback, avenging a 4-0 deficit against the lowly Diamondbacks. Their bats were ICE cold before those final innings. Now San Francisco has to turn around the next day and hit the road to face the surging Brewers; that ain’t ideal. Milwaukee has won 9 of their last 12 games and their offense is performing really well over the last 2 weeks, ranked in the top 10 in nearly every category (runs, RBIs, wOBA, batting average, etc.). They’re also starting their ace in Corbin Burnes (6-4, 2.46 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 73 innings) tonight. This is another situation where a great pitcher should experience positive regression. Burnes allowed a very rare 5 runs to the Braves in his last start, which is only the second time he’s allowed that many points all season. Before that disappointing performance, Burnes permitted 1 run or less in 5 straight starts. Burnes has a sensational 1.89 xERA and 1.49 FIP and I think he could put on a show tonight. Logan Webb (3.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 73 innings) is a serviceable and frequently exceptional pitcher that adds to a fantastic San Francisco rotation. Still, his marks are substantially lower than Burnes and the Brewers’ bats have showed no sign of slowing down. The Brew-crew had a day off before this contest, they’re at home, and they’re 24-6 in their last 30 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take Milwaukee.

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