Wednesday 7* 100% 2021 NBA Playoff Game of The Year Headlines. CONCACAF Gold Cup Comp Play below.
The Soccer Comp play on Wednesday is on Mexico -2.5 goals over Guatemala in Gold Cup action at 9:30 eastern. Mexico is the defending champ in the gold cup and also happen to be the top team in the tournament and are ranked 11th in the world. They will make a big run in the upcoming World cup and will not lose to anyone in the Concacaf cup. Guatemala is ranked 127th and have lost the last 2. They have a poor head to head record with Mexico and have not beat them in over 50 years and have not scored on Mexico in over 10 years. Mexico won the last meeting 3-0 and could have ran it up even more. Mexico is unbeaten in 29 of 31. Expect a big win and cover for Mexico. On Wednesday the 7* 2021 NBA Perfect System Playoff Play of the Year is our only play on the board. See us on facebook to Jump on and roll your book like wholesale carpet tonight. For the Soccer Play. Make it Mexico -2.5 goals on The Asian Handicap. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We’re 6-3 betting these NBA Finals and we’re on to game 4! Let’s get right into it:
Bucks -4.5 (-105), 2 units and Giannis over 53.5 P/A/R (-119), 1.5 units and Chris Paul over 21.5 points (-120), 1.5 units:
We correctly predicted that game three would go in favor of the home team and that it did. Led by another sensational performance from Giannis, the Bucks were able to pull this series closer. Now the Suns only have a 1 game lead and it feels like the championship is up for grabs again. Can the Bucks win 2 straight at home and send the battle back to Phoenix all tied up? We think so, and I also think they will cover.
If I showed you the team stats from game three without showing you the teams and asked you to guess who did what before Sunday, I imagine you might have assumed that it was the Suns who owned the better numbers. Just like what we saw from Phoenix at their home arena, the Bucks took control from opening tipoff and never lost their grip. Here are some of the statistical disparities:
The Suns were good; the Bucks were just better. They were fast, energetic, efficient, and seemingly free of anxiety. And when you see that the Bucks actually out-did another ballclub from the charity stripe? Wow… what a night!
We all know that home-team-advantage is a real intangible in the playoffs– it’s one reason why teams vie for the highest seed. But the difference in how these two teams play at home and on the road in the playoffs is rather glaring. Milwaukee has only lost one game all postseason at Fiserv Forum. The Suns have only lost two at their arena. Perhaps one COVID year in a foreign bubble format has us all forgetting that playing in front of your own screaming fans is a real boost of adrenaline and a real dilemma for the road team’s nerves. That’s especially true for how young and inexperienced this Suns team really is. Although the Suns have impressed, I don’t expect a different result in game four. I think the aggressive style of Giannis and his supporting cast chug the fuel of their fans and grab another win by margin. And I think the books aren’t lining this properly. The value is, once again, on an underestimated home team. A line of -4.5 is barely 2 full possessions.
You know who’s not young and inexperienced? Chris Paul. CP3 has led his teams in assists in all 3 games of this series and 2/3 of the games in their points. If anyone is going to shred the shakiness of a hostile crowd, it’s Paul. His superstar foe, meanwhile, has played absolutely absurd thus far. Remember when the P/A/R prop for Giannis was set at 42.5 in game two? LOL. I repeat– L. O. L. Sure, much of that was because of his injury concerns heading into that contest, but I think it’s fair to assume that he won’t be sitting or resting again any time soon. The Greek-freak has been nothing but extraordinary in this series and it’s obvious that he matches up perfectly against the Suns. Phoenix is relentless on defense and well-coached; they just don’t have the size to stop Giannis. DeAndre Ayton is a good defender but he’s not great just yet. The rest of the Suns are just too small. The front court belongs to Giannis and although his P/A/R line is sky high, I still have to take it. The former MVP is averaging 34.3 points per game and 14 rebounds per game in this series. He may not need any assists to eclipse the P/A/R mark once again.
I don’t know about you but I’ve really missed sports the last few days. The MLB All-Star game is fun but it’s too volatile and hokey to bet. The NBA Finals are backand we’re excited to watch the big game and make a little coin in the process. Good luck!
We’re fresh off a great week at the John Deere Classic where we picked up +4.59 Units. Harold Varner III (+250) and Jhonattan Vegas (+225) both cashed for top 20 picks. S. Power (+115) over C. Davis also hit for us in matchups. We just missed on the outrights with Adam Schenk (+16000) and Hank Lebioda (+5500) who both finished in the top 10. Lucas Glover wound up winning the John Deere going off at +4000. We now head across the pond to preview the final major of the year.
The delayed 2021 Open Championship returns to Royal St George’s Golf Club, for a tournament that was due to be played in July 2020. Six major tournaments have taken place since Shane Lowry’s raised the Claret Jug back in 2019. This was the first cancellation of The Open since World War II. All players who were exempt into the championship back in 2020 have their spots for this year tournament. Even with the ongoing pandemic, 32,000 fans will be allowed to attend the tournament each day. In addition to the Claret Jug which they’ll be able to keep until the following tournament, the winner will also receive automatic entry to all future Open Championships until the age of 60. The champion will also gain entry to the next five Masters, US PGA and US Open tournaments along with five year members to both the European Tour and PGA Tour.
Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim of South Korea, have both dropped out citing preparation for the upcoming Olympics. All athletes from South Korea who win an Olympic medal are allowed to forgo a two-year military stint, which is mandatory for males between ages 18-28. So a spot on the podium means a little more for those two as they are looking to continue their careers on the PGA Tour without having a two year pause.
In addition to those two, some other major names have withdrawn from the Open due to heightened Covid-19 protocols or other reasons. The list includes; Hideki Matsuyama, Zach Johnson, Bubba Watson, Kevin Na, Cameron Davis, Matthew Wolff and Danny Lee.
Tournament Information:
Dates: July 15, 2021- July 18, 2021
Location: Sandwich, Kent, United Kingdom
Course: Royal St George’s Golf Club
Par: 70 (4x 3’s/ 12x 4’s/ 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,189 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 70 & Ties Make The Cut
Greens: Bentgrass (40%), Fescue (60%)
Fairways: Bentgrass and Fescue
Purse: $11,500,000 / Winner $2.07 Million
Fedex Cup Points: 600
Stimpmeter: 13+, Fast
Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
Water Hazards: None
Bunkers/ Waste Area: Plentiful, traditional links style
Stroke Average in 2011: 72.86 (+2.86)
Course History/ Guide:
Royal St. George will host the Open for the first time since 2011 when Darren Clarke captured his first major at the age of 42. The Open has been hosted at Royal St. George fourteen times prior. This is a traditional style links course that offers wide fairways but accuracy is key off the tee as the fescue can be punishing. Achieving accuracy off the tee is often difficult here as there are several blind tee shots on the course. The wind is also a major factor as Royal St. George’s is located off the Kent coastline. There are virtually no trees to offer relief from this wind. The low ball hitters will certainly have a slight advantage here. This course is known for its tall sand dunes, deep bunkers, and unforgiving fescue. The greens also offer a challenge of their own as they have plenty of run off areas with winding slopes. The most recent renovation to this course was back in 2021; the bunkers on the 4th and 7th hole were restored, a sand area was added near the 5th green, two bunkers on 17 were converted to into a swale, and the reconfiguration of the bunkers on the 18th hole.
With all Open Championships, each course has their own attributes. One major point of contention this week will be the undulating fairways. On Royal St. George the fairways will often provide uneven lies and sometimes kick the ball into the rough. However, the players can reside in the fact that the rain should have softened up the fairways up a bit, limiting the unpredictability of the bounces. As with most sports, luck will always play a factor and the winner here will certainly need some. Even with the unpredictability off the tee, driving distance does matter as the long hitters dominated the leader board back in 2011. Speaking of long hitters, Bryson DeChambeau will debut his new caddie, Brian Zeigler.
When analyzing the Open Championship, one thing you always hear is to avoid first time entrants, as well as the Americans. Even with Spieth winning the Open back in 2017, Americans have struggled across the pond and there are stats to back it up. In the last 10 Open Championships, 113 players finished in the top 10. Only 43 of those players were Americans (38%). The last player to win the Open Championship in their debut was Ben Cutis, back in 2003.
The winning score for this tournament is usually around -5 with the only outliers coming in 1993 when Greg Norman posted a -13 and Henrik Stenson in 2016 when he shot a -20 to win at Royal Troon. The average winning score across all Open Championships has been -9.0 since 1980. However, at Royal St. George the average winning score has been -4.2.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Architect: Laidlaw Purves
Comparable Courses:
Open Championship Rota
Carnoustie
Royal Portrush
St. Andrews
Royal Birkdale
Royal Troon
TV Information:
Round 1: Thursday, July 15, 2021 – Peacock* – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM, Golf Channel* – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM , Peacock* – 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, July 16, 2021 – Peacock* – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM, Golf Channel* – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM , Peacock* – 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, July 17, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 5:00 AM – 7:00 AM, NBC* – 7:00 AM – 3:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, July 18, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 4:00 AM – 7:00 AM, NBC* – 7:00 AM – 2:00 PM
Weather:
Thursday: AM Clouds/ PM Sun 59 F, 10 mp/h NW, 86% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
The AFC East – Not only did this conference even up last year, it heated up between two very bad teams that are now looked at much differently in the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. The Jets were the jets, and the Patriots really took a step back as predicted; although it took more time that I thought that it would being that the Pats had a nice start to the season. I think we are forever going to have the who’s better debate between Bill Belichick and Top Brady unless the Patriots literally turn into the Jets over the next few years. This division plays the AFC South which is good and the NFC South which is medium now that Breese is gone.
1. Buffalo Bills – Vegas Win Total 11
Power Rating: 5.75
Schedule – Medium Easy – At large vs Washington, @ Kansas City, vs Pittsburgh
Key losses: WR John Brown, DT Quinton Jefferson, and a bunch of smaller names
Key additions: WR Emmanual Sanders, QB Mitch Trubisky, and a bunch of smaller names.
Key Draft Picks: Edge Gregory Rousseau, Edge Carlos Basham JR, and a bunch of we shall see.
Summary: It was nice hitting that +175 on this team to win the division last year. The Bills achieved a nice 13 wins last year but some of that was definitely having the benefit of having a little bit of an easier of a schedule than some of the other good teams. The Bills had a lower Pythagorean adjusted win to 11.15 but they also dropped what I thought was a for sure victory in Arizona with the hail Murray. The good news for the Bills is that their schedule is once again very friendly and I can only say that their most likely losses are @ Kansas City, maybe @ Tennessee and @ Tampa Bay. This team should be beat Miami and the Patriots at least 3 of those 4 games with a sweep vs the Jets. Losing John Brown was quickly gained back and then some with Emmanuel Sanders. I like the Edge rushers that this team drafted. With 17 games, I feel comfortable taking over 11 here.
My Number: 12.48
Action – Play the Over 11 wins or shop it around
Miami Dolphins – Vegas Win Total 9 juiced to the over -130
Miami Dolphins Power rating: 1.25
Schedule – Easy – At large vs NY Giants, @ LV Raiders, vs Baltimore
Key losses: DT Davon Godchaux, ILB Kyle Van Noy, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, C Ted Karras
Key additions: WR Will Fuller, DT Adam Butler, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Justin Coleman
Whom they drafted: WR Jaelin Waddle, Edge Jaelen Phillips, S Jevon Holland
Summary: It is such a shame that this team won 10 games last year and missed the playoffs. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey is gone taking the brunt of the blame for a stagnant offense. After a nearly one-month search, the Miami Dolphins decided that Eric Studesville and George Godsey, who served under Gailey, are worthy run their offense together as co-offensive coordinators. I am not sure if this will work well, but I have always found it quite weird when the guy who was supposed to be backup quarterback ends up better than the guy that the team just drafted. It is also weird to release the better of the 2. How much of the blame for a bad offense was this the fault of Chan Gailey when Fitz was putting up some good numbers and Tua wasn’t? How does promoting the two guys under Gailey going to fix Tua? This is at least how it appeared last year with Tua Tagovailoa making some awful starts. He happened to win some of those vs teams like LA Rams, and at Arizona, but we all saw that it was the fantastic Dolphin defense making those touchdowns and huge plays with no credit to the offense. What I did see last year when they had Tua start a few games was Fitzmagic coming in off of the bench to clean up Tua’s messes. In saying that, we know that Tua is still young and has about two more years to try and prove himself. Drafting Jaelin Waddle this year certainly might help Tua out, although, I was more of a Devonta Smith guy myself. This team didn’t lose much and they have a great schedule this year. The Season win total at 9 juiced to the over tells me that the Market isn’t sure on Tua and/or the new offensive coordinators and I agree with it.
My Number: 9.77
Summary: Lean over 9
New England Patriots – Vegas Win Total 9.5 juiced to the under -130
New England Patriots Power Rating: 1
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Dallas, @ LA Chargers and vs Cleveland
Key losses: G Joe Thuney, DT Adam Butler
Key additions: OLB Matt Judon, TE Jonnu Smith, TE Hunter Henry, S Jalen Mills, WR Nelson Agholor, DT Davon Godchaux, ILB Kyle Van Noy, C Ted Karras and a some others
Key Draft Picks: QB Mac Jones, DL Christian Barmore, EDGE Ronnie Perkins
Summary: Welp, you certainly can’t say that Robert Kraft didn’t break out the pocket book this year now can you? The Patriots were the most active team in free agency in the whole NFL. It is looking to me like they might start going back to more of a two tight end set now that Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are there. I agree with the move but what I do not agree with is Cam Newton as a starting NFL quarterback. Cam has some issues running an offense that surpasses a college type dink and dunk type system, but my question is, can Mac Jones step right in here and make some serious noise? The Pats were the second most injured team due to Covid hold outs last year behind the 49ers. New England’s Pythagorean winning percentage matched their total wins almost to a tee but if you look at their total yards per game, they only ranked 26th in the league while their defense gave up the 14th most yards giving them a net deficiency of -26 yards per game. I think the Patriots will come into the season as an above average team and well with in reason that they could win 9 or 10 games.
My Number: 9.5 wins
Summary: No Play
New York Jets – Vegas Win Total – 6
New York Jets Power Rating: -7.25
Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Philadelphia, @ Denver, vs Cincinnati
Key losses: Coach Adam Gase, QB Sam Darnold, G Pat Eflein, DE Henry Anderson, OLB Jordan Jenkins, OLB Tarrell Basham, WR Breshard Perriman, QB Joe Flaccof
Key additions: Coach Robert Saleh, DE Carl Lawson, WR Corey Davis, DT Sheldon Rankings, CB Justin Hardey, G Dan Feeny, ILB Jarrad Davis, FS LeMarcus Joyner and a few more
Whom they drafted: QB Zach Wilson, OT Alijah Vera-Tucker, WR Elijah Moore, RB Michael Carter and a bunch more
Summary: So how did protecting the QB do for this team last year when they went trenches? Not good at all and Adam Gase had his worst season by far ending his coaching tenure. This year, defensive minded Robert Saleh takes over and brings over a familiar face in Mike Lafleur. Well, it is familiar because he looks like his brother Matt Lafleur who is head coach of Green Bay and currently having Arron Rogers type headaches. Anyways, I do like these moves and even though the Jets had the lowest Pythagorean winning percentage last year at 3.1 adjusted wins for 17 games, I can see some upside over the 2 wins that they had throughout the 2020 season. The Jet’s offense was horrible last year but also were the 4th most injured team according to football outsiders and their defense had some good pieces to it. I think this team will have some struggles in their first 6 games or so but they should start improving on offense as long as Zach Wilson isn’t a total bust. Zach is very athletic with a great arm but also very small for this league. I am concerned that his BYU football schedule was quite easy last year. I think Saleh will really improve this defense and I will look to play some unders from the start. Getting CJ Mosley back from his 2020 year off will be huge at middle linebacker. The Jets were maybe the most second active team in free agency and they filled a bunch of holes. I think if Zach turns out, that this team could get 6 or 7 wins.
It’s 7/11, which means I’m definitely getting my free Slurpee, and it also means that game 3 of the NBA Finals has arrived! We’re 5-1 so far betting this series– onto the picks!
Bucks win 1Q (-175), 1.75 units and Suns/Bucks 1H over 109 (-110), 1.5 units and Bucks -4.5 (-110), 2 units:
I think the Suns are going to win this series, I said that before it started, but I also predicted it was going to go at least 6 games. We’ll see if that comes to fruition but I have little doubt that the Bucks will win at least one of these battles at Fiserv Forum. Giannis has played sensational so far but his supporting cast hasn’t been as stellar. While many of the Bucks’ players have had good games, they haven’t been great. Jrue Holiday was on a tear against the Hawks but the Suns’ defense is doing a great job at limiting his production. In game two he was a horrendous 7/21 from the field for only 17 points. Middleton was even worse, shooting 5/16 from the field for an abysmal 11 points. It doesn’t need to be said but I’ll say it anyway– if the Bucks want a chance at this title, the way they’re role-players are contributing (or lack thereof) is not sustainable. Even when the Greek-freak is freakishly dominating the front court (he was 15/22 for 42 points) like the freak he is, Milwaukee can’t win without a full team effort. The Suns are too well-balanced and too well-coached to let one player beat them. Expect a recharged Bucks unit to come out hot after a solid 3 days off. I love them winning the first quarter.
I also expect points in this one, again. Although these two teams have fantastic defenses, statistically the best overall in these playoffs, they’re playing at a pace that will continue to be unkind for those betting unders. Since I think the Bucks could win this game by some margin, I’ll avoid taking the full game total over. Margin tends to equal a decrease in tempo and less output on the scoreboard. That being said, I foresee the Bucks running at light-speed behind their fans from the opening tipoff and I really like the first half going over. If this game slows down at any point and some of the quarter/half/full game totals drop too low, I’ll hit a live over too.
The Bucks have only lost 1 playoff game at home this postseason. That came in their first contest against Atlanta, much to everyone’s shock. The Bucks can absolutely cover this number, behind their Milwaukee fans, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were up by double digits in the fourth quarter. For as good as Phoenix has been, the Bucks still have plenty of fight, not to mention the best player on the court (maybe not at the foul line but you get it). I think the home team takes care of business tonight.
This will be a super short write-up so I have time to write more for the NBA Finals Game 3 tonight. Locked in after a good week of MLB betting, here are my Sunday plays:
Orioles (+160), 1.5 units: This is as good an opportunity as the Orioles will get: at home, on a hot and humid day with capable bats against a hittable and declining pitcher in Chicago’s Dylan Cease (his ERA is on the rise as the season wanes on, up to 5.04 in June). Orioles upstart young gun Spenser Watkins looks like he could have the tools to have some staying power in the big leagues, too. We’ll see how many innings he can last.
Phillies (EVEN), 1 unit: I’ll take Aaron Nola (4.53 ERA, 3.71 xERA, 3.36 xFIP), who’s absolutely due for some positive regression, to show up big here today. I’m a big Nick Pivetta (4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 92.1 innings) guy too but I like the way the Philly bats have awakened lately. I’ll take the road team to eke out a W.
Braves/Marlins No Run in 1st Innings (-140), 1.4 units: This is another classic spot where two good pitchers should easily have their way in the first inning with the low-scoring Marlins and an Atlanta team now without Acuna. Or, as my luck goes, maybe we’ll get a random homerun in the bottom of the 1st with 2 outs and then these two inconsistent offenses won’t score again all game. Sounds about right. Still betting this.
Brewers (-157), 1.57 units: The Brewers are starting Brandon Woodruff, who has been sensational this year, and Luis Castillo is a fade candidate for me. These are the setups where Milwaukee stacks up wins and they’ll do it again today.
Astros (-130), 2 units: The Yankees have gotten the best of the Astros in 4 out of 5 of their battles this year and the last 2 games of this series. Not today. Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86 ERA, 3.17 xFIP over 50.1 innings) got annihilated in his last start and I’m sure he’ll be looking for some redemption today. New York’s bats are infamously inconsistent and this feels like a good spot for them to sink back into their BS. I’m on the Astros at home to finally show-out some big offense today and secure a win against their AL rival.
Sunday card has a Triple system 6* NBA Finals Game 3 Top play, the Euro 2020 Top Total, MLB Sunday before the break specific Power Systems. Comp Totals Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Under 9 runs in the Detroit and Minnesota game at 2:10 eastern. This game fits a nice totals System for division home favorites in this line range off a home win, vs an opponent off a road loss if the total is less than 12 runs. Detroit has gone under 6 straight in game 4 of a series. The Twins are 4-0 under in game 4 of a series and 4 of 5 under vs a losing team. Berrios for the Twins has pitched to a 3.36 era with unders in 3 straight home starts. Peralta for the Tigers has a stellar 2.14 era on the Year. Look for this game to stay under. On Sunday a huge card is up with a triple system NBA Finals Game 3 top 6* release, the Euro 2020 Final Totals Play along with the side, a Powerful MLB Card with our Exclusive Sunday before the break specific Systems. See us on facebook to Jump on now and end the week big as we roll in the All star Break. For the MLB Comp play. Go under 9 Detroit at Minnesota, Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Coming off of a nice 6-1 day yesterday. Let’s keep it rolling.
Oakland vs Texas +120 O/U 9
This game has the makings of a lot of runs (hint hint). Texas ended up getting the win last night 3-2 and Oakland is ready to rebound. The Athletics have James Kaprielian at the mound who has a decent 2.89 ERA but only a 3.98 FIP. Actually, on the road he has a 4.88 FIP which applies to this spot. Texas has Mike Foltynewicz on the mound, who’s name sounds like an old broken down car (also has been pitching like one), with a 5.48 FIP and a 1.3 WHIP is a good fade both to the other side as well as the over. Texas has a ballpark that is pretty well known as a hitters park and this total sitting at 9 at the dead of summer is too tempting not to take the over. Texas averages 4.14 runs per game while Oakland averages 4.4. Both bullpen’s are pretty average but their best guys got some work in the close game yesterday. Take the over.
Over 9 runs – 2 stars
Quick hitter!
NY Yankees vs Houston Astros -103 O/U 8.5
Unless you are living under a rock, you know that Garrit Cole’s ERA has blumed to 5.4 and his FIP to a 5.7 since June 1st after the league had cracked down on using tar and other sticky substances at the mound. Now this is no skin off of Cole’s back being that he just robbed the Yankees for 324 million over 9 years using this stuff, but the important thing for this handicap is that this rule enforcement makes Cole much closer to an average pitcher. Houston knows this and will be gunning for him. Greinke on the other hand is still very solid with a 4.07 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP. Houston is the best hitting team in baseball. The Yankees are not. Grab the bad price on Houston.
Astros -103 – 2 stars
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Ahhhhh Macgleggga. Why are you such a showman? Or is it a clown after trying to kick DP in the press conference? And why are you ranked 5th in the lightweight class when Dustin ranked 1st? The odds certainly don’t show it this way. Let’s be honest. We never go by UFC rankings for odds unless we are using them to try and fade a favorite, but I think that this fight has some betting potential. Let’s look at the facts here. Connor McGregor is a legend and there are only few fighters that were better than him throughout his career. He has been the best for some of time but Khabib eventually put the lid on that and then went sailing into the sunset in his prime. Connor beat Dustin in the first round back in 2014 and that was part of the reason that McGregor was a massive -320 favorite vs Dustin when he lost to him just this past January. Well the tables have turned right now, and DP has obviously become a much better fighter, but what does that mean about this line? Dustin is a short favorite as I am typing this and I expect it to even out once again getting closer to the fight time. My biggest concern for McGregor is his jaw. Even at 32 years of age, he seemed venerable after Poirier struck him somewhat softly a few times and then finished him on the ground. It was Connor’s first knockout. In saying that, Dustin has been knocked out himself a few times but you have to go way back to 2016 for that. Let’s cut to the chase here. No reason to go over stats too much. Let’s just point out that both fighters have outstanding stand-ups landing around 5.5 significant strikes per minute, but Dustin has the better ground game with 7 all time submissions. I do not think that grappling will be much of a factor being that Dustin hasn’t submitted anyone since 2017. Due to this, I think that the under 2.5 rounds is certainly the prop that I am looking at being that time won’t be wasted on the ground. In their last 2 fights, neither of them even got to the 3rd round. In Dustin’s last 8 fights, 4 of them went under 2.5 round and in Connor’s last 11 fights, 9 of them didn’t get past the 2.5 rounds. Dustin is poised and ready to strike when he sees an opening and Connor is very emotional and will try and go for the kill early. I think that Dustin knows this and might even use that against Connor and that is why I will be waiting for a better number to bet on Dustin Poirier a few hours before the fight. In the mean time, grab the under 2.5 rounds.
Under 2.5 rounds -125 – 2 stars
Wait for a better number on Dustin. At least -115 for 1 star or pass.
Yana Kunitskaya vs Irene Aldana -115
This matchup is in the Bantamweight class of 135 lbs. I am really looking forward to this fight. Yana is a very motivated fighter who seems to be getting better and better after every bought. She has won 4 of her last 5 fights which is impressive. Yana is 31 years old and is 14-5 throughout her MMA career. Her opponent in Irene Aldana is an up and coming fighter from Mexico. She is 33 years old at 12-6, and her last fight was against a different blond in Holly Holm. Irene lost that fight by decision but there is certainly is no shame in losing to Holly being that she would beat both of these fighters any day of the week and twice on Sunday, but what I see in Yana is a more experienced fighter with a better price here. Kunitzkaya has mainly legit losses going all the way back to Tonya Evinger back in 2017 and she also has the better accuracy in her punches at an amazing 73% SSLPM to 43% for Aldana. Yana is also better at take downs at 1.62 per 15 minutes to Irene’s .23. I think that the wrong fighter is favored here. Grab Yana.
Yana Kunitskaya -105 – 1.5 star
Driscus Du Plessis vs Trevin Giles -105
This fight stuck out to me just due the fact that the odds are almost even and the fact that there is a prop angle that stands out. Driscus Du Plessis is 15-2 in MMA but has only 1 UFC fight so far while Trevin Giles is 14-2 in MMA and 5-2 in the UFC. Both Fighters are young at 28 and 27 years old respectively. Now Driscus is an in-your-face fighter who rarley gets to the 3rd round while Giles seems to live in the 3rd round with 6 of his last 7 fights getting there. The interesting thing to me is that Trevin’s only 2 losses have been by submission and most of Driscus’s wins have been by submission with 9 of them and 6 KOs. None were decision. I think it is worth taking a shot at Driscus by submission here for a half unit.
Driscus Du Plessis to win by submission +500 – .5 stars
If you would like another free play, please check out the end of our latest podcast! Best of luck everyone!
