Cam Davis at 125-1 captures the Rocket Mortgage Classic after defeating Joaquinn Niemann and Troy Merritt in a playoff. Niemann was eliminated after the first hole but, it took Davis 5 holes to close out Merritt. We were obliviously rooting for Niemann as we had him outright at 25-1. Regardless of missing the outright winner, we still had a solid tournament finishing at +0.46 units.
The John Deere Classic is a tournament that is constantly overlooked with as it’s the week before The Open. This tournament comes back after it was postponed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. The John Deere Classic was originally Quad Cities Open but changed it’s name in 1999. It has been held at TPC Deere Run since 2000 and is a major part of the local community as it raised over $20 million for local charities in 2020 despite the event being cancelled. Most of the top players have already left the states which leaves us with a weaker field. To try an attract some of these bigger name players, the John Deere Classic has sponsored a charter flight which leaves the local area from Silvis on the Sunday night and arrives in Britain the following morning. Some may complain about this weaker field but, this is where you’re able to find some value and try to cash in on a longshot.
Tournament Information:
Dates: July 8, 2021- July 11, 2021
Location: Silvis, Illinois, United States
Course: TPC Deere Run
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,268 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
D.A. Weibring and Chris Gray of PGA Tour Design Services turned a 386-acre horse and cattle-breeding farm, into a strategically handsome parkland layout on the sylvan bluffs above the Rock River without disturbing much of what glacial ice had left behind. D.A. Weibring was an Illinois native and three-time champion of the Quad Cities Classic. A fun fact about this course location is that roughly 70 miles upstream, a John Deere started his plow company. All of the holes on the course have names but, the signature hole on the course is the 16th Par 3. “Mother Earth” is set along the Red River and plays roughly 160 yards.
TPC Deere Run is historically an easy course, that fails to present much challenge. The winner of this tournament is usually around the -20 mark. Four of the last five winners at the John Deere Classic have picked up their first career victory here. TPC Deere Run has been won on approach shots and putting. Bogeys should try to be avoided at all costs here. The fairways are larger than PGA average which should allow some forgiveness off the tee. Two of the Par Five’s (2 and 17) are reachable in 2 for most players. A key stat for this weeks tournament is birdie or better conversion as it is with most resort style courses. However, this tournament will ultimately come down to who has the hottest putter and can take advantage of these bentgrass greens.
Illinois (+25000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 3.5 wins)
Head Coach Brent Bielema is back in college football taking over for Lovie Smith, who was fired during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. When he took over in December, he recruited 21 super seniors to stay for their additional year due to COVID-19. Belilema and his experience staff have their work cut out this season as they try to revamp an offense that averaged only 20.1 PPG and a defense that allowed 34.9 PPG.
Bielema’s offenses have been built around running the ball effectively behind strong offensive lines and a pro- style quarterback. The Illini will depend on veteran OT’s Vederian Lowe and Alex Palczewski to anker the edges of the O-line with Center Doug Kremer to man the middle between 2 new starting guards. RB Chase Brown was the leading rusher for Illinois in 2020 and expects to duplicate that effort this coming season. The big question mark for the Fighting Illini is their receiving corps who lost their top receiver to the NFL draft and their 2nd leading receiver last year was TE Daniel Barker who only pulled in 19 receptions for 268 yards.
Ryan Walters comes into his first season as Illinois defensive coordinator and will try to revitalize a defense that hasn’t finished better than 10th in the Big Ten in total defense since 2015. Though the starters are experienced, depth remains an issue at most positions, particularly at cornerback and outside linebacker. The strength of this defense is senior linebacker Jake Hansen, who led the team with 68 tackles, had 2.5 sacks and 2 interceptions. A breakout candidate for this side of the ball is senior defensive lineman Roderick Perry, who did not struggle like others did against elite talent.
I don’t see the Illini winning more than 2 or 3 games in 2021. Take UNDER 3.5 wins.
Iowa (+900 to win the Big Ten, O/U 8.5 wins)
The Hawkeyes started off slow last season losing the first 2 games but followed that up with 6 straight wins. They were the best team in the West but their early loss to Northwestern hurt their chances of playing for a title.
In one of their highest scoring seasons, the Hawkeyes averaged 31.8 PPG which was 40th in the nation. They will have to replace a decent number of starters, however. Iowa will return only 5 starters including starting QB Spencer Petras and 1st Team All-Big Ten RB Tyler Goodson. At tight end, Sam LaPorta is the latest in a long tradition of great tight ends at Iowa. He led the team last season with 27 receptions and will most likely need to do the same this season with inexperienced receivers. The Hawkeyes will be moving or replacing several positions on the offensive line but the one constant will be C Tyler Linderbaum, who looks like a future 1st round draft pick.
On defense, the Hawkeyes held their opponents to just 4.3 YPP, which led the nation. They also allowed only 16 points per game which was 6th best. However, the defensive line only returns one starter, Zach VanValkenburg, and they will have to piece together the rest. The line will be inexperienced but the opposite goes for the back 7 where they return all but one player and will be led by LB Jack Campbell and S Dane Belton.
I have the Hawkeyes winning 7 or 8 games in 2021. Take UNDER 8.5 wins
Minnesota (+3000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7 wins)
2020 was not what anyone expected but especially in Minnesota where PJ Fleck went 3-4 after an impressive 2019 season when they went 11-2. Minnesota had 2 games cancelled for COVID-19 and they also played another with 33 players out. The Gophers lost WR Rashad Bateman and CB Benjamin St-Juste to the NFL in the offseason but returns 18 starters from 2020. They are one of the most experienced team in the Big Ten this coming season.
Offensive Coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. has a decent amount of talent to work with this season including an offensive line that has 160 combined starts (best in the nation), and Big Ten Running Back of the Year Mohammed Ibrahim. Veteran QB Tanner Morgan also returns for his 3rd year as Gophers starter. Morgan will have WR Chris Autman- Bell, who looks to be to new go-to receiver. The rest of the receiving corps looks to be a work in process and will need someone to step up opposite of Autman-Bell. Minnesota averaged 27.3 PPG and 391 YPG in 2020, which were both drop offs from their impressive 2019 season.
The Golden Gophers defense was the biggest downfall of the 2020 season. They will be led by freak rush end Boye Mafe who had his best season last year finishing with 27 tackles and 4.5 sacks and DB Coney Durr who led the team in passes defended. The secondary had 5 interceptions combined but not one player had more than 1. The Gophers only need to replace one starter and have some transfers coming in to boost the defense. To help Mafe on the D-line, Nyles Pinckney from Clemson and Val Martin from NC State will give them added depth in the middle of the line.
I see 8 wins a strong possibility with this squad. Take OVER 7 wins.
Nebraska (+4000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 6 wins)
Scott Frost enters year 4 as Nebraska’s head coach and will look to improve off a disappointing 3-5 season in 2020. Two of the teams top offensive players, Luke McCaffrey and Wan’Dale Robinson, transferred in January but Frost said he was happier about the culture for the 2021 season. He also kept all of the assistant coaches from last year which shows confidence in what they are doing in Lincoln.
Nebraska’s offense has declined each of the past 3 years, which doesn’t make Frost look like the offensive guru he was brought in to be. Adrian Martinez returns to run the offense in his senior year but he needs to clean up the turnovers to keep his job. Martinez lost 5 fumbles and threw 3 interceptions in their 8 games last year which contributed to their, 123th ranked, -11 turnover margin. NU looks to have an exciting group of receivers while the running back position looks to be thin as a true freshman, #35 RB recruit Gabe Ervin, is set to open the season as the starter. Other the receiving corps, the big guys up front should have a solid group constructed by returning starters and a top 100 recruit from 2020.
Opposite of the offense, the defense has actually improved each of the past 3 years. The Huskers defense will welcome 8 starters back from 2020 with CB Cam Taylor-Britt and LB JoJo Domann leading the way. Every key contributor on the D-line is back, all but two contributors at linebackers and the secondary only need to replace one starter. Saying that, the defense will look to improve again and has the ability to become one of the best units in the Big Ten in 2021.
This will be Frost’s 1st season above .500 and the Cornhuskers will win at least 7 games. Take OVER 6 wins
Northwestern (+5000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 6.5 wins)
Coming off an impressive 2020 season, Pat Fitzgerald will be coaching the Wildcats in his 17th season at the helm. Northwestern was in the Big Ten Championship last season and held powerhouse Ohio State to their lowest total of the year. However, the Wildcats offense was only able to score 10 points in the matchup. 2021 could be somewhat of a rebuilding year since they are only bringing back 8 starters.
Northwestern will open the season with a new starting QB for the 4th straight year as South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski is the favorite to win the job. The highlight of Hilinski’s career was in 2019 when he threw for 2357 yards, 11 TDs and 5 interceptions while helping the Wildcats take down the #5 Georgia Bulldogs. RB Cam Porter led the team in rushing and he is the only skill position leading yard gainer back this season. The receiving corps will be a work in progress as will the offensive line who returns 3 starters but will have to piece together the rest.
In what was a definite strength of the Wildcats, the defense ranked 5th in the nation in points scored with only allowing 15.9 PPG. Like the offense, there will be a lot of new faces on the defense with only 3 starters returning from last season. However, there will be some talent coming back highlighted by sophomore S Brandon Joseph who was tied for most interceptions in the nation. DE Andetomiwa Adebawore and LB Chris Bergin are the other two returning starters but it is also worth mentioning DE Samdup Miller (sat out 2020) and CB AJ Hampton who will play large roles this season as they piece together the D.
I have the rebuilding Wildcats winning 6 games so take UNDER 6.5 wins.
Purdue (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 5 win)
After starting the 2020 season 2-0, the Boilermakers had their next game cancelled and then lost their last 4 games of the season. Head Coach Jeff Brohm will be entering his 5th year and will need to show improvement to keep him off the hot seat.
The offense that averaged 27.2 PPG and owned a 16th ranked passing game will most likely play both Jack Plummer and Aiden O’Connell at QB since it worked so well last season. Zander Horvath returns as the bell cow and leading rusher on the Boilers in 2020 but lead a running game which finished last in the Big Ten. This should be the best offensive line in Brohm’s tenure even without LT Grant Hermanns, who was drafted by the Jets, and the best player on the field should be junior wide out David Bell.
For the 3rd year in a row, Purdue will have a different defensive coordinator. Brohm brought in Brad Lamber from Marshall where he was co-coordinator/linebackers coach. First round prospect George Karaftis is back and should be motivated after being limited to only 3 games in 2020. The defensive end should be better than ever operating in a four man front. Other than Karlaftis, the Boilermakers will return 7 starters from what was a respectable defense last season ranking 56th overall in yards allowed. They will build the secondary around CB Cory Trice who looks to be the best NFL prospect in the secondary. Purdue also brought in a couple transfers that will be thrown into the mix. Will it be enough?
5 wins is exactly where I have Brohm’s squad. No play here.
Wisconsin (+600 to win the Big Ten, O/U 9.5 wins)
Wisconsin started the 2020 season with 2 blowout wins and 2 cancellations. After that, it all went downhill for the Badgers, losing the next 3 and barely beating the struggling Golden Gophers in OT. Head coach Paul Cryst will have 17 starters returning and will be looking to bounce back in 2021.
With all of the challenges and setbacks in 2020, Wisconsin had its worst offense since 2004 averaging 25.1 PPG and 345.6 YPG. QB Graham Mertz returns for his 2nd year under center after completing 61% of his passes. The return of sixth year receivers, Danny Davis and Kendric Pryor, can only help. Both WR’s 2020 seasons were ruined by injury. Senior tight end Jake Ferguson, a first-team All-Big Ten performer last season, has 99 career catches for 1168 yards and 10 touchdowns in his Badgers career and looks to be the best NFL prospect on the team. Freshman RB Jalen Berger looks to improve upon last season after he was the leading rusher and looks to be the primary tailback in 2021 behind an offensive line that returns 4 out of 5 starters.
In 2020, the Badgers defense led the league but only allowing 299.8 yards per game and their 17.4-point average was 9th best in the country. Eight starters return from that defense highlighted by LB Jack Sanborn and S Scott Nelson. Sanborn led the team in 2020 with 52 tackles and Nelson led the team in interceptions. Look for the Badgers defense to be tough again in 2021.
I have the Badgers winning at least 10 games and winning the West and will be in the Championship vs Indiana. However, I have the Hosiers winning the Big Ten title. Take OVER 9.5 wins.
Jul 5, 2021; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens right wing Josh Anderson (17) shoots and scores against Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) during the overtime period in game four of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
The Montreal Canadiens finally managed to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning and avoid the sweep. Josh Anderson was able to find the back of the net for the Habs in OT to force a Game 5 back in Tampa. The Lightning were dominant in Game 4 beating the Canadiens in expected goals 4.36 to 1.9. The issue for Tampa Bay was in net, as Andrei Vasilevskiy struggled finishing the game with a -1.1 GSAx. Carey Price managed to play one of his better games of the season as the Canadiens were outshot 34-21. Price would wind up with a +2.36 GSAx in Game 4. We now look at Game 5 where the Lightning look to close Montreal out at home tonight, and repeat as Stanley Cup Champions.
Montreal Canadiens (+210) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-250)
The Canadiens were lucky to grab Game 4 and it was only because of a phenomenal performance from Carey Price. Price has been the main reason that the Habs have been able to make it this far playoffs. The issue with that, is he can’t win this series for them as he’s the second best goalie in this matchup.
Tampa is prime to finish off the series tonight and they do it with a bounce back performance from Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning are also 14-0 following a loss over their last two postseason runs. The last time the Lightning have lose consecutive playoff games it was back in 2019. Credit to the Canadiens for their Cinderella run in the playoffs but tonight, the clock strikes midnight. Tampa Bay’s mayor gets her wish and they close it out in front of their home crowd.
Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning in Regulation -0.5 (-150) (Risk 1.50 Units)
We snatched a 1-1 day yesterday after the Tigers couldn’t stop the Rangers from scoring BUT, the almighty, elite (ahem) Diamondbacks pulled out a W for us! The Mets game never happened. Here are my favorite plays today!
Indians (game 1, +140), 1 unit: The Indians desperately need a win. Riding a 7-game losing streak heading into today, Cleveland takes on the Tampa Bay Rays in a doubleheader. J.C. Mejia (6.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 27.2 innings) will start for the away team and while his numbers have been declining, I think it may be more of a settling-in process. Mejia has a great frame and solid velocity but his lack of variety has allowed way too many opportunities for batters in his last few starts. As a reliever, Mejia was nearly perfect. I expect some positive regression for the 24 year old and even if he isn’t brilliant today, I’d rather play on him than Michael Wacha (5.26 ERA, 1.40 WHIP over 51.1 innings). At 30 years old and 953 innings pitched, Wacha has a ton of miles on his big right arm. He’s good for a sterling performance here and there but on a bad day, he can be really exposed. I think this may be one of those days. Neither of these teams are juggernauts on offense (although yesterday was quite the explosion) but I think Wacha is in a more vulnerable spot. I’m on the tribe to get a much-needed victory as they look to hold onto their chances at a postseason run.
Mets first 5 -0.5 (game 1, -120), 1.5 units: Check out my write up from yesterday on this game. Instead of Brett Anderson, the Brewers will start Corbin Burnes (2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP over 82 innings) in the first contest of a doubleheader Wednesday. Instead of fading a play on deGrom, that only gives us more value. The world’s best pitcher should be primed and ready for some redemption after a rare 3 runs allowed in his last start against Atlanta. For most pitchers that’s not a terrible day. For deGrom it’s infuriating. If the Mets can muster one run during his time on the mound I think it may be enough. I’m on the Mets early in a short game. Expect more runs and volatility in game 2.
Red Sox/Angels over 9 (-110), 1.5 units: This has big hits written all over it. A closely fought series between Boston and LAA leads to their final contest of the year. The Sox lead the series 3-2 thus far. Each team will start one of their more vulnerable throwers today in Eduardo Rodriguez for Boston and Andrew Heaney for the halos. While I like Rodriguez’s profile a little more, the proclivity for both of these starters to allow homeruns, big hits and base runners has me favoring both offenses this afternoon. I don’t know who will win this game but 9 feels way too low for two of the better hitting teams in MLB.
Giants (-177), 2 units: Plenty of modern baseball cannot be handicapped the same way as the days of old. It ain’t all about the pitchers. Tonight, in this game, that’s exactly what it’s about for me. Alex Wood (3.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 76.1 innings) gets the start for San Francisco this evening and he’ll go up against Johan Oviedo (5.14 ERA, 1.55 WHIP over 49 innings) and the struggling St. Louis Cardinals. Wood boasts a solid profile and numbers that can back it up– 4.00 xERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, and 1.09 HR/9 innings– not elite, but solid. Oviedo, on the other hand, is starting to struggle. The 23 year old young-gun is experiencing some of the same negative regression he did two years ago, with devolving xERA and LOB rates and accelerating issues with command. In his last 3 starts he’s permitted 19 hits and 14 runs over 13.2 innings. I think it’s fair to call that negative regression. The Giants have conceded two games to St. Louis in this series but don’t expect a third. I love Wood and the Giants to secure a win tonight at home.
Wednesday card led by a powerful MLB Platinum Supreme Model Move, Early Wimbledon, the Soccer Total Of The week and more. NHL Comp Play below
The NHL Comp Play is on Tampa Bay at 8:10 eastern. The Lightning are a pretty heavy favorite. However they apply to some powerful systems. For starters. Game 5 home teams that won the first 3 and then lost on the road are 4-0 all time in Stanley Cup round play. Tampa also fits a solid 28-2 All purpose playoff system that pertains to home favorites off a road favored loss. Tampa is 41-13 on Wednesdays and 65-17 after scoring 2 or less goals. Montreal has lost 10 of 14 on Wednesdays and they have lost the last 8 in Tampa. With the favorite having won 19 of 26 in this series we will Lay it with the Lightning. On Hump Day we have a Top Level MLB Platinum Supreme play, the Soccer Total of the Week and Tennis in Wimbledon action. See us on Facebook to Jump on and cash out. For the NHL Comp Play. Take Tampa Bay. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WWWL @ HHVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WWWL with site order HHVV (Tampa Bay) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2021 NHL and NBA Semifinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 102-4 (.962)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 11-0 (1.000)
series record, NHL only, all rounds: 50-3 (.943)
series record, NHL only, Finals round: 4-0 (1.000)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 78-28 (.736)
Game 5 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 8-3 (.727)
Game 5 record, NHL only, all rounds: 39-14 (.736)
Game 5 record, NHL only, Finals round: 4-0 (1.000)
SU: 28-2
May 07, 2016 Saturday 2015 Capitals Penguins home 1-1 2-0 0-0 3-1 -150 5.0 2 W U 0
May 12, 2016 Thursday 2015 Sharks Predators home 2-0 1-0 2-0 5-0 -175 5.0 5 W P 0
Apr 20, 2017 Thursday 2016 Penguins Blue Jackets home 1-0 2-2 2-0 5-2 -190 5.5 3 W O 0
May 02, 2017 Tuesday 2016 Rangers Senators home 2-0 2-1 0-0 4-1 -160 5.0 3 W P 0
May 06, 2017 Saturday 2016 Capitals Penguins home 1-1 0-1 3-0 4-2 -167 5.0 2 W O 0
May 25, 2017 Thursday 2016 Penguins Senators home 0-0 1-1 1-1 3-2 -190 5.0 1 W P 1
Apr 25, 2018 Wednesday 2017 Bruins Maple Leafs home 3-2 0-2 4-0 7-4 -175 5.5 3 W O 0
Aug 09, 2020 Sunday 2019 Capitals Bruins home 1-0 0-0 1-1 2-1 130 5.5 1 W U 0
Aug 12, 2020 Wednesday 2019 Bruins Hurricanes home 1-1 1-1 1-1 4-3 -130 5.5 1 W O 1
Aug 18, 2020 Tuesday 2019 Knights Blackhawks home 1-2 2-1 1-0 4-3 -215 5.5 1 W O 0
Aug 31, 2020 Monday 2019 Avalanche Stars home 5-0 1-2 0-1 6-3 -120 6.0 3 W O 0
Sep 04, 2020 Friday 2019 Knights Canucks home 0-0 0-0 3-0 3-0 -220 6.0 3 W U 0
Sep 14, 2020 Monday 2019 Knights Stars home 1-0 0-0 1-2 2-3 -169 5.0 -1 L P 1
May 25, 2021 Tuesday 2020 Hurricanes Predators home 1-1 0-1 1-0 3-2 -215 5.5 1 W U 1
May 28, 2021 Friday 2020 Knights Wild home 1-1 3-1 2-0 6-2 -200 5.0 4 W O 0
Jun 07, 2021 Monday 2020 Bruins Islanders home 1-1 1-3 2-1 4-5 -190 5 -1 L O 0
Jun 21, 2021 Monday 2020 Lightning Islanders home 3-0 3-0 2-0 8-0 -178 5.0 8 W O 0
Jun 25, 2021 Friday 2020 Lightning Islanders home 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0 -179 5.0 1 W U 0
Jul 07, 2021 Wednesday 2020 Lightning Canadiens home -207 5.0
Head coach Tom Allen has this club turned around after an excellent 2020 season beating #7 Penn State, #23 Michigan, and #18 Wisconsin. They gave the powerhouse of the Big Ten, Ohio State, a hell of a game losing 42-35 at the Horseshoe. Indiana ended the year ranked #12 and will have 18 starters returning from that team. Now they go from underdogs to favorites in games. Time will tell how they handle the expectations.
The question on offense leading into the season will be if Michael Penix Jr. is healthy enough to play. He is coming off a midseason ACL injury last season and the expectations are that he will be ready for the opener. Leading the receiving corps will be veteran WR Ty Fryfogle and TE Peyton Hendershot. The Hosiers brought in 2 more veteran receivers when DJ Mathews Jr. (Florida St) and Camron Buckley (Texas A&M) transferred onto campus. There will be focus to improve the offensive line play and returning 4 of the starters will help. They also will be replacing their workhorse running back from last season and most likely candidate will be junior RB Sampson James.
Indiana’s defense was definitely the strength of the team last season as they ranked 19th in PPG and 10th in turnover margin. The defense returns 8 starters headlined by senior LB Micah McFadden who led the team in tackles and sacks last season. They are thrilled by getting Ole Miss transfer, Ryder Anderson and he is slated to start at DE. The secondary should also be improved with LB/DB Marcelino McCrary-Ball returning after having to sit out last season with an injury. He was a starter his first 3 seasons.
I like this team a lot. Take Indiana to go OVER 7.5 wins AND to WIN the Big Ten
Maryland (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 5.5 wins)
The Terrapins come into 2021 after a pandemic latened season going 2-3 to close out the season. Head Coach Mike Locksley has recruited a top 20 class coming into this season and will be returning 19 starters this year.
Taulia Tagovailoa returns to what was a below average offense a year ago by only putting up 23.6 PPG. Other than Tagovailoa, the offense returns 7 starters highlighted by WR Dontay Demus Jr who led the team last season with 24 catches ,365 yards and 4 touchdowns. Bruiser RB Tayon Fleep-Davis should get the bulk of the carries this season and will be running behind an offensive line with 2 new starters.
The defense struggled last season, especially while trying to stop the run while giving up, a 115th ranked, 230 YPG. Although they will need to make some changes and improve, DC Brian Stewart will be working with 9 starters from last season. Their top recruit and #1 inside linebacker in the nation, Terrance Lewis, will be a plug and play for this defense. The clear strengths of the defense are the safeties, All-Big Ten honorable mention Nick Cross and spring MVP Jordan Mosley.
The Terps should have 3 wins in their first 4 games, but it gets pretty tough after that. 5.5 wins looks to be right on. I’m gonna PASS on this one.
Michigan (+2500 to win the Big Ten, O/U 7.5 wins)
After another disappointing season, Jim Harbaugh returns for his 7th season as the Wolverines head coach. Michigan ended the season 2-4 and had their last 3 games cancelled due to the pandemic. The biggest change this season will be that the Wolverines coaching staff will be without long time DC Don Brown.
There are a lot of unknowns at the quarterback position as it looks like junior Cade McNamara is set to start. He could have some competition from former 5-star freshman JJ McCarthy and Texas Tech transfer Alan Bowman. The Wolverines will return leading rusher Hassan Haskins and top 2 receivers, Ronnie Bell and Cornelius Johnson. The strength of the offense will be the offensive line who has every starter back and led the Big Ten a year ago in fewest sacks allowed.
Although there are 9 returning starters on defense, the Wolverines need an overhaul on this side of the ball. A unit that is typically one of the best in the nation, fell to 95th by allowing 34.5 PPG. In saying that, new DC Mike McDonald does have some players to build upon with experienced D-linemen Christopher Hinton and Aidan Hutchinson returning and safeties Brad Hawkins and Daxton Hill possibly the strongest position on the Wolverines.
I could see Michigan starting the season 4-0 but, like Maryland, the season gets tough after that. I have them winning 7 or 8 games in 2021. So I will PASS on this one too.
Michigan State (+10000 to win the Big Ten, O/U 4.5 wins)
After 13 seasons season with Mark Dantonio in charge at Michigan State, the Spartans will look to new head coach Mel Tucker to get back to their winning ways. Sparty had another disappointing season last year and will look to rebound in 2021. Tucker set the tone right away when he said “this is a compete-to-play, compete -to-stay” culture. Thirty players exited the system and Tucker went right to the transfer portal to compensate.
Michigan State’s offense had a horrible year in 2020 averaging only 18 points and ranking 116th in the nation. Saying that, if they Spartans iron out the starting quarterback situation and solidify the offensive line, they could have a productive and exciting offense. Sophomore Peyton Thorne and Temple transfer, Anthony Russo will battle it out for the starting QB gig. Top receivers, Jalen Nailer and Jayden Reed, are back for their junior year. Reed is one of the top WR in the conference and Nailer has the speed to stretch the field. Transfer Kenneth Walker (Wake Forest) should get the bulk of the carries from the running back position. The offensive line should be constructed by 4 returning starters and Arkansas State transfer Jarret Horst at right tackle.
The Spartans have to replace their best players on all three levels of the defense but are returning 7 starters. However, those starters a year ago could very easily be replaced by underclassmen or transfers after a year of allowing a 100th ranked 35.1 PPG. MSU’s defensive line is the deepest and most experienced group on this side of the ball with question marks coming from the back 7. Though, Xavier Henderson looks to be the captain of the defense and will be the guy to lead this defense to success or mediocrity.
Sparty looks to be a 4 or 5 win team, so we PASS again.
Ohio State (-220 to win the Big Ten, O/U 11 wins)
Rinse and repeat? The Buckeyes played in the Big Ten Championship again last season beating Northwestern 22-10. They took it to Clemson in a rematch of the playoff game in 2019. However, they did fall short against Alabama in the National Championship. The Buckeyes will be replacing 10 NFL draft picks for the second straight year but the way Day and his staff recruits they shouldn’t miss a beat.
Top 2 receivers and NFL prospects, Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, will be back to destroy Big Ten secondaries and RB Master Teague will be back to carry the load. The big change will come at quarterback where whoever wins the competition, and right now it looks like redshirt freshmen CJ Stroud will be the starter, still has not thrown as pass in college. TE Jeremy Ruckert will be a popular target for the new starter as he creates mismatches with his size and athleticism. The offensive line has a pair of dominate tackles as Thayer Munford and Nicholas Petit-Frere returning and this will be Munford’s 4th year as starting LT.
If there was a weakness on this team last year, it was definitely the defense and specifically the pass defense. Second year offensive coordinator, Kerry Combs, will have some work to do replacing 6 starters and revamping the secondary. The Buckeyes are expected to play a 4-2-5 defense with a hybrid safety/linebacker, in which coaches call the “bullet”, taking the place of a traditional linebacker. With no surprise, the strength of this defense will be the defensive line with defensive ends, Zach Harrison and Tyreke Smith standing out.
Games at Minnesota (1st game of the season), at Indiana, vs Penn State, at Nebraska, and at Michigan will all be tough games for the Buckeyes. I see them losing at least 2 of the 5 games. Take UNDER 11
Penn State (+900 to win the Big Ten, O/U 9 wins)
Coming off a disappointing 4-5 season in 2020, Head Coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions looks to rebound and improve in the competitive Big Ten Conference. PSU started the season last year with 5 straight losses and finished the season with 4 wins. They will have 18 starters returning for 2021.
Mike Yurich takes over an offense that averaged 29.8 PPG and 430.30 YPG, which ranked 37th in the nation. He comes over from Texas and in Yurich’s only year with the Longhorns, they averaged 42.7 points per game, second most in school history and 7th in the nation. In his career, Yurich’s offense averaged 6.49 yards a play. Nine starters return for the Lions on offense including QB Sean Clifford, WR Jahan Dodson and LT Rasheed Walker. Clifford is in his 3rd year as the starter and has been inconsistent and this will be his 4th offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in his 5 years at being at Penn State. Dodson enjoyed a breakout season last year and led the Big Ten in 884 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Parker Washington and KeAndre Lambert-Smith were impressive last year as freshmen and tight ends Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson will be counted on to step up after Pat Freiermuth was drafted to the NFL. It sounds like it will be running back-by-committee with John Lovett (transfer from Baylor), Keyvone Lee and Noah Cain getting the bulk of the carries and they will be behind an offensive line with 3 returning starters. They will look to improve the 3.9 YPR and 28 sacks allowed in 2020.
Defensive coordinator Brent Pry looks to improve upon a Penn State defense that returns 7 starters. A Defense that allowed 27.7 points per game, which was the most in school history, and owned a turnover margin of -7. Of course, the defense isn’t all to blame as both sides of the ball look to improve upon that. PSU gave up a record number of points but only gave up 328.8 yards per game in 2020 which was good enough for 17th in the nation. The Nittany Lions added 3 experience transfers to this side of the ball including DE Arnold Ebiketie, who came over from Temple, is expected to start. The strength of this defense should be the secondary and they will be led by cornerback Tariq Castro-Field and safety Jaquan Brisker and might rotate as many as 6 guys back there.
I have an improved Penn State team winning 9 games so we will pass on an O/U.
Rutgers (+25000 to win the Big Ten, O/U TBD)
In his second stint, Head Coach Greg Schiano’s first season back was mediocre going 3-6, but 3 of the loses were by a touchdown or less. Something to built on. The Scarlet Knights also have 22 starters returning, which is most in the Big Ten.
Everyone on returns from an offense that was middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Noah Vedral returns as the starting QB after throwing for 61.5% last season, but don’t be surprised if freshman Evan Simon pushes him for playing time. Then there is also wildcat quarterback, Johnny Langan, who was 2nd on the team in rushing last season. RB Isaih Pacheco was the leading rusher on the team averaging 4.4 YPP and running for 515 yards in the shortened season. The receiving corps returns led by speedy Bo Melton and he is coming off a breakout season with 47 catches and six touchdowns. The offensive line is experienced and even added transfer David Nwaogwugwu (Temple), who looks to be slated for the right tackle spot.
Rutgers defense will be returning 9 starters and will be highlighted by LB Olakunle Fatukasi. The leader of the defense, Fatukasi had 101 tackles in 2020, most in the Big Ten, and earned All-Big Ten first team. Including Fatukasi, the Scarlett Knights return 9 of their top 10 tacklers from a season ago. CB Avery Young and S Christian Izien will lead the secondary and attempt to turn the ball over from the opposing offenses. Which was a strength of the defense last year owning a top 25 turnover margin (+6). Izien led the secondary with 4 pass deflections and 4 interceptions.
Rutgers total is not available as of yet but I have the Scarlett Knights improving and winning 7 games in 2021.
A nice 2-1 Monday was a swell start to the week, especially when you win with two underdogs– let’s KEEP winning!
Mets first 5 -0.5 (-165), 1.65 units and Mets -1.5 (-120), 1.5 units: This is a pretty square pick and when I tend to bet on deGrom dominating it can really backfire, but that’s mostly just the complaints of a jinx-avoidant sports gambler. The world’s best pitcher shows no signs of slowing down and the Brewers bats, despite some of their success, don’t scare me. The Mets aren’t particularly good against lefties either, so this isn’t a “bad setup” for Brett Anderson (4.69 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 48 innings). Anderson is off a 10 day IL due to a knee issue, which probably doesn’t bode too well for the declining starter. His 7.22 xERA, increasing homerun rate (1.31/9 innings) and decreasing LOB rate (70.7%) have me off the first 5 or full game under. Instead I’ll go with deGrom (0.95 ERA, 054 WHIP over 85 innings) to control this game early and often and the Mets to take advantage in a good spot at home. New York needs to keep winning to maintain their position in the NL East.
Tigers (+152), 1 unit: The Tigers are once again the underdog and I shall once again take advantage. Globe Life Field is a well-known pitcher’s park so it’s no wonder why Dane Dunning (4.38 ERA, 1.51 WHIP over 74 innings) has had plenty of success at home. We care not. The Tigers have won 10 of their last 12 ballgames and they dominated the Rangers last night, up 7-0 entering the 9th. Jose Urena (6.22 ERA, 1.66 WHIP over 72.1 innings) doesn’t have a great profile in 2021 but this is more about the Tigers as a team. Detroit has been excellent at managing in-game situations (bunting in spots, moving base runners, stealing bases, etc.) and I can’t not favor them again tonight.
Diamondbacks (-132), 1.32 units: A bet on the D-Backs is always scary but they might be meeting an even more inferior foe Tuesday night at home. The Rockies are a play-on team for me when they’re comfortably whacking balls at Coors Field but on the road, I happily bet against them and I bet against them often. Merrill Kelly (AZ- 4.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP over 98.1 innings) has been steadily improving as the season wanes on. His ERA has improved vastly and his command has been solid, allowing just over 2 runs per game in his last 5 starts. Colorado comes to town feeling fat and sassy after 2 series wins at home against the Pirates and Cardinals. They’ll start 29 year old Jon Gray (3.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP over 74 innings), who got exposed for 10 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings the last time he visited Chase Field. While that may give him the steam to do better, I don’t trust him as far as I can throw him. The Diamondbacks have a rare opportunity to take care of business when the Rockies’ visit and I like them to snag a victory today.
In this episode of “Laying the Points with FarleyBets,” Chris gives an NBA Finals preview and discusses his favorite bets for Game 1, he talks about his favorite NFL Future and NFL Week 1 bets, and he also gives a few UFC 264 bets ahead of the big card. Check it out!
Game one between the Bucks and Suns kicks off tonight as we look to crown a new NBA Champion. While Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo looks like he won’t play in the first contest, this should be a contentious series that I expect to go at least 6 games. “Suns in 4” or “Bucks in 5” just doesn’t seem very likely to me since both of these teams are so good at home and so well-balanced. Before we get to our bets and predictions for game one, let’s look at some team rankings and statistics:
ATS Record: Suns- 1st overall (covering 60.9%), Bucks- 20th overall (covering 47.2%)
Offensive Efficiency: Suns- 4th overall, Bucks- 6th overall
Defensive Efficiency: Suns- 9th overall, Bucks- 10th overall
Offensive Rating in Playoffs: Suns, 10th out of 16, Bucks- 11th out of 16
Defensive Rating in Playoffs: Suns, 2nd out of 16, Bucks- 1st out of 16
Effective Field Goal Percentage: Suns- 3rd overall, Bucks- 2nd overall
Pace: Suns- 27th overall, Bucks- 2nd overall
Point Differential in Playoffs: Suns- 2nd out of 16 (+7), Bucks- 4th out of 16 (+6.1)
Game One Bets: Suns 1Q -2 (-110), 1 unit and
Middleton over 39.5 P/A/R (-120), 2 units and Suns -5 (-135), 2 units
Two of the association’s most well-balanced and consistent teams all year meet for the final series of the NBA season. While injuries have plagued this year’s playoffs and many pundits want an asterisk next to the 2021 title, I say these two organizations are very deserving of their respective spots. The journey for Phoenix has been no picnic– they defeated last year’s champions in their first series in 6 games, swept the always-formidable Denver Nuggets, and shut-down a Kawhi-less Clippers team without big performances from Devin Booker. Defense and brilliant team-basketball led by one of the NBA’s premiere court generals in Chris Paul has led them to this opportunity. The Bucks entered the playoffs as the #3 seed but that only seemed to work in their favor. From the get-go Milwaukee played with fire, embarrassing last year’s Eastern Conference champions in just 4 games (3 of those ending by double-digit margin), leaving Jimmy Butler and the Heat in shock. Even more impressive was their long, grueling series against the Brooklyn Nets, where even Kevin Durant’s magical offense couldn’t overcome superstar production from Antetokounmpo and a defense that never folded. In 6 games, the Bucks took down the feisty Atlanta Hawks to win the East. Four of those contests were without the Greek-freak, which only made it more impressive. The Suns have never won an NBA title and it’s been 50 years since Milwaukee became champion (1971).
Like most years, the 2021 NBA Finals will be won not because of one star or one dominating player, but by who plays better defense. Both the Suns and Bucks have reached new heights of defensive effort in the playoffs. The Suns have allowed the least points among all playoff teams so far at only 101.9 per game. The Bucks are right behind them in 2nd, allowing only 103.7 per game. Although I lean to the under Tuesday, the totals are lined at numbers where I see little advantage (halftime: 108.5, full game: 219). It’s a pass for me in game one but we’ll keep looking for opportunities to hit an under with these two exceptional defenses.
Without Giannis tonight, Milwaukee will need to play as aggressive and confident as they did in their last series against the Hawks. Khris Middleton did a fantastic job stepping into the primary-producer role for his team, averaging 28 ppg after Giannis went down with a knee injury. He also led his team in rebounds in 3 out of 4 of those games. It wasn’t only Middleton, though. Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, “crazy eyes” Bobby Portis and others put in solid performances on offense and defense to help the Bucks surpass Atlanta. I give Milwaukee a ton of credit for their effort and resilience up until this point. That being said, I think this is the Suns series to control.
Chris Paul had to take a step back and recover in the Western Conference Finals after exposure to COVID-19, but that might’ve only helped the Suns’ chances this year. He rested his shoulder and arm and other aliments that have bothered him (and that predictably haunt anyone who’s played in the NBA since 2005). Paul is fresh and the Suns have no reported injuries heading into the final showdown. I imagine his 41 point (16/24) showing in game six against the Clippers silenced any doubt that Paul is ready to win his first title. That’s also a great outlook for Devin Booker. The young star plays his best when he doesn’t have to hold the offensive load squarely on his shoulders. The reality is he’s not ready for that sort of responsibility, at least not most nights. Together with DeAndre Ayton playing some spectacular basketball at center and a team full of young talent, I don’t see the Suns having any issue staying ahead tonight at their arena. I see Phoenix going up early and maintaining a lead; the home-crowd advantage, the seasoned leadership of Paul, and the energetic style of the Suns’ balanced attack should create a nerve-racking and overwhelming feel for Middleton and his teammates.
On the year, the Suns were the 2nd best ATS team in the NBA at home, covering at a rate of 63.6%. The Bucks, on the other hand, were one of the worst ATS team on the road, covering at a clip of only 42.2%. Only the Celtics, Warriors and Cavaliers were worse. As an underdog they’re even more pitiful, covering at only 37.5%. Of course the Bucks haven’t been an underdog often (8 games during the regular season), but it doesn’t help that Phoenix covered 59.4% as a favorite this year. Not a great outlook for tonight if you’re a Bucks fan. I’ll take the Suns by margin in the first quarter, the Suns at a reduced price of -5 overall, which I think is worth the juice, and an over on Khris Middleton’s P/A/R prop since I think he’ll be desperately trying to keep his Bucks within reach. Good luck tonight!
Lookout for my podcast today, Laying the Points with FarleyBets (episode 8), where I’ll be providing an NBA Finals preview there, too. I’ll also cover NFL future bets and some lookahead bets for the big UFC card this Saturday.
