The Atlanta Braves will host the Milwaukee Brewers in the final contest of a three-game series on Sunday. Lefty Brett Anderson gets the nod for the Brewcrew. He is 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 63 innings pitched. Veteran righty Charlie Morton will get the start for the Braves. He is 10-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 116 innings pitched. Both starters have an xFIP that is lower than their ERA, meaning this we could be in store for a lower scoring ballgame. The Brewers come into this one as one of the better teams in baseball ranking in the top 5 in wOBA (.338) over the past month and a 4th ranked wRC+ (126) in the past week while the Braves offense has been very average over the past 30 days with a 101 wRC+ and a .319 wOBA in the past week. The edge in this ballgame will come with the bullpen unless Uncle Charlie can pitch a complete game. Atlanta’s pen has been their achilles heal this season ranking 23rd in the league while posting a 1.39 WHIP this season while the Brewers relievers earned a 3rd ranked 1.09 WHIP over the past 30 days. I see this game being close low scoring ballgame until the pens take over. The market is in favor of Atlanta but I see way too much value in this line. Take the Brewers +155
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A 2-0 Saturday makes us 3-0 the past 2 days and gives us another winning week betting baseball. Onto Sunday!
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Orioles first 5 (+105), 2 units: Despite the failings of Baltimore in yet another disappointing year for Charm City, they remain one of the best offenses against left handed pitchers. The Orioles are top 5 in many major categories against lefties, including runs, RBIs, and batting average. Today they’ll go up against southpaw Tyler Alexander (4.80 ERA, 4.61 xERA, 1.36 WHIP over 50.2 innings), the 27 year old reliever who’s been getting more chances to start as Detroit looks to build up their rotation in the hope of a late-season surge. Baltimore will start Spenser Watkins (3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 20.1 innings) for the 4th time today. In his last start against the Marlins he allowed a big homerun early, which really was the difference in the game, but we still believe in Spenser. The kid has a dynamic arsenal and generally really impressive command from what we’ve seen so far. I think he can keep the Tigers at bay, and I can’t say I feel the same way about Alexander. This is another spot where Baltimore can thrive. According to Covers.com, the Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record and 5-0 against starters in their last 5 with a WHIP greater than 1.30. I’m on the O’s in the first half.
Giants -1.5 (+165), 1 unit: I’ll take a shot on the Giants by margin today. San Francisco’s Logan Webb (3.36 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 67 innings) has been getting better as the season goes on, boasting an impressive 3.48 ERA in June over 20.2 innings, followed by an even more impressive July with a 2.00 ERA over 18 innings. He’ll look to continue his success tonight against the visiting Astros. Houston will start Luis Garcia (3.19 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 96 innings) Sunday, whose profile is devolving a bit, particularly on the road. He owns a 4.58 ERA away from Minute Maid Park and has allowed 12 runs in his last 3 starts on the road. Maybe this is the game where he sees some positive regression but I can’t trust it against the Giants and how they’ve performed recently on offense. Over the past 2 weeks, San Francisco is top 10 in homeruns, slugging percentage, and wOBA. That should only get better with Kris Bryant, who’s primed and no doubt motivated to make his debut today against the villainous Astros. The Giants are 34-17 at home and will be playing in front of a raucous crowd. They’re also 23-6 in their last 29 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous contest. Take the Giants by margin.
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Sunday MLB Card has a TOP Level Platinum Supreme Move headlining. In Soccer we have a 6* In the 2021 Gold Cup Final and a 5* in MLS Soccer Action. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play for Sunday is on Detroit At 1:10 eastern. The Tigers apply to a nice bounce back system here today for home teams with a total of 10 or higher off a home loss scoring 2 or less runs. They should do better here against Watkins than they did with Means on Saturday. The Tigers are 10-2 of late at home and have taken 8 of 12 here vs Baltimore. The Orioles have dropped 21 of 27 non division road games and 14 of 18 on the road vs a starter with an Era higher than 4.. Look for Detroit to get this one today. Big Sunday card going with a Platinum Supreme Open Ended Top play in MLB. In Soccer there is a 6* Gold Cup Finals Play and a 5* in MLS action. See us on facebook to Jump on now and start the month big. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Tigers. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
This should be a fun little fight even though these are little guys. This flyweight flight consists of 2 guys that actually have a little pack to their punch. Lets start with the Adashev. Zarrukh is 3-3 with two of his wins by KO/TKO and his losses were all evenly split by decision, submission and KO/TKO. When Zarrukh stepped up in competition his last 2 fights in the UFC, he has lost both of them. Ryan Benoit on the other hand is 10-7 with 8 KOs 1 submission and 1 decision. Five of his 7 losses were by decision and two were by submission. The good news for Benoit is that he is the much more experienced fighter and has never been KO’d. There are only 2 ways that both Zarrukh and Benoit can win this fight and that’s by KO or Decision. Neither of these guys have a ground game which makes me like Ryan has the advantage. I also like the fact that Ryan can sometimes score a few points here and there with takedowns and to this day, Zarrukh just doesn’t do that. When looking at the metrics you have to lean Benoit. He has a longer reach than Zarrukh at 68′ to 65′ inches and he is the better striker landing 45% significant strikes to 23%. This line is pretty short so I have to go experience here with these fighters.
Ryan Benoit -125 – 1.5 stars
MAIN EVENT
Uriah Hall vs Sean Strickland -220
This should be a decent main event with two very experienced fighters both having 26 fights to their name. Uraih has been a staple in the UFC and he has a very respectable 17-9 record at 36 years old. What this record doesn’t tell you is that he has fought some of the best fighters in the business such as Anderson Silva, Derek Brunson, Paulo Costa, Thiago Santos and Robert Whittaker. Sean Strickland is the younger fighter with the better record at 23-3 and most of his fights were against no-names minus his lost a few years back to Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision. Now in my opinion on the side, Uriah is being disrespected some and there might be some value in his number at +185. Strickland’s stats are better but only because of his weaker opponents. The thing that is keeping me off the side is the importance of this fight for Strickland and the age difference but I will shop around and see if I can get a +200. The play that I really like is the over 2.5 rounds. This is a five round fight and out of Strickland’s last 12 total fights (all 3 rounders), 10 of them went past 2.5 rounds. Hall has been KO’d in the past in his career, but if you take out the Chris Weidman leg break, his last 3 fights before that went past 2.5 rounds. Gonna play it safe and lean the dog.
Saturday headliners include an MLB Executive Level TIER 1 side and a Top Level Total, In soccer we have a Platinum Supreme Move and a UFC Fight night Play. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on the NY. Mets at 7:10 eastern. The Mets are 10-1 at home vs N.L. Teams off a home loss where they scored 2 or less runs. They also fit a nice system that pertains to home teams with a total of 8 or less off a -135 or higher home favored loss by 2 or more runs if the total was 8 or less and they scored 2 or less with 5 hits. These teams are perfect this season. The Reds have lost 13 of 18 here and the Mets will be energized with the addition of Baez making his debut here tonight. The Pitching looks even with Hill and Miley, who hasnt pitched here since 2015. Look for the Mets to bounce back here tonight. On Saturday the Headliners include the MLB Executive Level TIER 1 Side, a 96% Totals System, Platinum Supreme Soccer Play and UFC Fight night. See us on facebook to Jump on and end the month big. For the MLB Comp play.Make it the Mets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We earned a 1-0 Friday by putting out a single pick on Twitter— I didn’t see a tremendous amount of value on the board for my free picks. We did go 4-1 in premium picks though, which is something you may want to consider (wink wink, check out the link below). We trudge on with MLB picks as we hit another hot mid-summer weekend!
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Athletics/Angels under 10 (-110), 2 units: The Athletics are finding ways to win in the same fashion as always– solid pitching, solid defense, and not overwhelming but opportunistic offense. Over the last 2 weeks, Oakland is one of the worst teams in MLB in wOBA (.296), slugging percentage (.265) and batting average (.227), yet they continue to earn victories, holding their place in contention in the closely fought AL West playoff race. Today they’ll send Cole Irvin (3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 117 innings) to the mound for game 3 of their current series against the Angels. Cole doesn’t have the most exceptional numbers but he’s typically above-average at keeping the game within reach, boasting great numbers in both preventing big slugs and limiting walks. While his last start wasn’t as sharp against the Mariners, his last performance against the Angels in mid July was exceptional, limiting them to 0 runs off 7 hits in 7 innings of play. That’s not good for LAA considering how bad their offense has been, too. While Oakland comes in at 28th in the majors in wOBA over the last 2 weeks, LAA isn’t much better at 27th (.300). After two good series against the Twins and Rockies, the Angels bats have gone cold. Jaime Barria (LAA- 6.23 ERA, 138 WHIP over 13 innings) will get his 3rd official start of the year after two strong recent showings. I think both teams continue to underperform at the plate and while I lean Oakland to win 3 in a row, I like the under way more.
Giants (EVEN), 1.5 units: I got this pick at a reduced price at even money yesterday but now it’s gone up to as much as -120 at some books. Houston ace Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 126.2 innings) gets the nod for the away team Saturday and while he’s probably still their most reliable pitcher, he’s permitting too many home runs lately, allowing at least 1 in each of his last 5 starts. This is an area where San Francisco thrives– the Giants are 2nd in the majors with 151 homers on the year. While their bats haven’t been as hot over the past few weeks, I think they can get to Greinke. And while the Giants were holding the juggernaut Dodgers to only 9 runs in 3 games this past week, the Astros defense permitted 21 runs in 3 games to a bad Seattle lineup. I suspect the Giants will continue to see more offensive success today. I also like this spot for Alex Wood (3.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 93.2 innings). Wood had a great July (2.82 ERA over 22.1 innings) and will look to continue his success on the dirt in this contest. His improving xERA and other numbers (HR/9 innings, LOB rate, etc.) are good buy signs, at least temporarily. According to Covers.com, the Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games, 7-3 in their last 10 games against a right-handed starter, and 5-2 in their last 7 games against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15. Take the Giants to out-class the Astros at home today.
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The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels continue their four-game series tonight at Angel Stadium. Right-hander Chris Bassitt is on the hill for the A’s where he is 10-3 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 21 starts. Lefty Patrick Sandoval will get the nod for the Angels. He is 3-4 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 11 starts and three relief appearances. The Angels come into this one with a top 10 wOBA and wRC+ this season whereas the A’s own the 2nd worst weighted on base average in the past 30 days and ranks 19th on the year in wOBA vs left-handed pitchers. Additionally, the Angels have the 3rd most hits (478), most homeruns (85), 2nd most runs (288), 4th best ISO (.204), 2nd best wOBA (.346) and wRC+ (122) at home this season. Oakland’s bullpen has out performed the Angels pen but they could be set for some regression as they own a 4.71 xFIP compared to their 3.81 ERA. The A’s pen also has been getting lucky with their .274 batting average of balls in play. Regression by Oakland’s pen is even more likely by their stats in the past month where they own a .259 BABIP and more than a 2 run difference between their ERA and xFIP (2.58 vs 4.71). Los Angeles should be able to outscore Oakland in this ballgame. Take the Angels +105
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Right at the trade deadline here and both of these teams are trying to compete yet holding steady thus far. One person who has really been holding steady is Brewers pitcher Corbin Burns. Corbin is burning through Cy Young contenders at an amazing 2.12 ERA and a 1.35 FIP. He hasn’t allowed over 3 earned runs since June 18th and he actually hasn’t allowed over 4 this whole year. This is one pitcher that didn’t regress since the foreign substance rules enforcement over the last 6 – 8 weeks. The Crew has a decent bullpen raning 18th in FIP. The Braves are a decent hitting team around the middle of the pack ranking 15th in wRC+. Touki Toussaint is taking the helm today for the Braves. This pitcher had some hype to him before the season started until his shoulder injury. Touki has pitched 2 games thus far vs the Padres and the Phillies boasting a very nice FIP at 2.57. The Braves bullpen is 12th in FIP while the Brewers are still looked at as a struggling team hitting the ball ranking 21st in wRC+ and we also have to remember that their best player in Yelich has Covid. All this tells me is that the under is certainly a good look today. Maybe Toussaint does pitch well today, maybe he doesn’t but I do not see Atlanta hitting vs Burns.
We have a loaded slate of Stakes racing at The Spa on Saturday. The Jim Dandy headlines the schedule with some of the best 3 year old’s prepping for the G1 Travers Stakes. The Travers aka the “Midsummer Derby” will take place later in the Saratoga meet (August 28th). In addition to the G2 Jim Dandy we also have the G1 Vanderbilt Stakes and the G2 Bowling Green Stakes. All races can be seen on FS2 “Saratoga Live” from 1:00 pm to 7:00 pm ET.
G1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes
The inaugural running of this event took place in 1985 as the A Phenomenon Stakes. It was originally named after the winner of the 1983 Jim Dandy Stakes, A Phenomenon. In 1990 the event was upgraded to a G3 Stakes, and then a G2 in 1995. In 2000, the event was renamed to honor Alfred G Vanderbilt who served as Chairman of the Board to the NYRA from 1971 to 1975. In 2010, the event was upgraded to a G1 Stakes. D. Wayne Lucas, H. Allen Jerkens, Steve Asmussen all share the record for the most wins by a Trainer with 3. Pat Day and Javier Castellano share the record for most wins by a Jockey with 4.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
Event Grade: I
Race: 8
Post Time: 5:03 PM ET
Length: 6 Furlongs
Purse: $350,000
Division: Open | 3 Year Old & Up
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Pick 4 (.50) Races (8-11), Double Wagers
Field:
Lexitonian (Jose Lezcano), 20-1
Mischevious Alex (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 2-1
Firenze Fire (Jose Ortiz), 3-1
Strike Power (Tyler Gaffalione), 15-1
Three Technique (Manuel Franco), 15-1
Whitmore (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 4-1
Miles Ahead (Luis Saez), 12-1
Montauk Traffic (Eric Cancel), 15-1
Special Reserve (Joel Rosario), 9-2
Horse Preview:
WHITMORE, the ageless 8 year old gelding, is 0-3 this year but has been close in those starts. He was third in a three horse photo in the GI Churchill Downs Stakes and second on the G3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. Ricardo Santana Jr will get the mount on WHITMORE who has ridden him 17 times out of his 41 career starts. WHITMORE won his last G1 Stakes in 2020 when he captured the G1 Breeder’s Cup Sprint. He raced last year the G2 Alfred G. Vanderbilt and took second.
MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, is a 4 year old colt who has been in the money in both G1 Stakes races he’s took place in this year. He won the G1 Carter Handicap at Aqueduct and took third in his last race, the G1 Metropolitan. His last race was the only race he failed to win in his four starts in 2021.
FIRENZE FIRE, is a 6 year old horse, who also doesn’t seem to be slowing down with age. This will be his first G1 Stakes this year but has captured a win in the G2 True North and G3 Runhappy. In last race, he took second in the G2 John A Nerud Stakes losing to MIND CONTROL. He hasn’t lost his past three races at 6 -6 1/2 furlongs, so we’ll see if he can continue that trend here.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Firenze Fire, Strike Power, Mischevious Alex, Special Reserve
Off the Pace: Lexitonian, Miles Ahead, Three Technique
Closer(s): Whitmore, Montauk Traffic
Picks:
WIN: (6) WHITMORE
EXACTA: 6 / 1, 2, 3
He’s 0-3. this year but has ran great in all three of those races. With Santana on the mount, I think he get’s his first win of the year.
G2 Jim Dandy Stakes
The G2 Jim Dandy is the traditional prep race for the G1 Travers Stakes. This race has been held annually at Saratoga since 1964. Prior to 1971, this race was run at a distance of a mile. The race is named in honor of the three year old colt, Jim Dandy who won the 1930 Travers Stakes at the odds of 100-1 beating Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox. Todd Pletcher has the most wins by a Trainer with 6 (2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2011, 2013). Eddie Maple, Jerry Bailey, and John Velazquez share the record for most wins by a Jockey with 4.
Race Information:
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, New York)
ESSENTIAL QUALITY enters the G2 Jim Dandy fresh off a win in the G1 Belmont Stakes. He rebounded in that race after a sub-par performance in the G1 Kentucky Derby. Prior to the Kentucky Derby he was undefeated winning his last five. He’s the most decorated horse in this field with three Grade I wins to his name.
WEYBURN is in a bit of a rut failing to find he winner’s circle in his past two races. He lost to MANDALOUN is the G1 Pegasus in his last out. Earlier this year he won the G3 Gontham Stakes at Aqueduct going off at 20-1.
KEEPMEINMIND off a bit of a layoff in her last race the G3 Ohio Derby took third to fellow entrant MASQUEPARADE who won. His last win came back in November of 2020 in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs.
RISK TAKING is coming into this race off a bit of a layoff with his last race coming back in May. That race was the G1 Preakness Stakes where he would finish eighth. He’s struggled in the G1 and G2 Stakes he’s competed in but won the G3 Withers earlier this year.
MASQUEPARADE enters the G2 Jim Dandy on a heater winning his last three starts. His most recent race was the G3 Ohio Derby where he bested fellow entrant KEEPMEINMIND. This will be his first G1 Stakes race so we’ll see how he handles the step up in class.
DR JACK‘s last out was the G1 Pegasus where he finished third. In that race where MANDALOUN won, fellow entrant WEYBURN took second.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Masqueparade, Weyburn, Dr Jack
Off the Pace: Essential Quality, Risk Taking
Closer(s): Keepmeinmind
Picks:
WIN: (3) WEYBURN
EXACTA: 2, 3, 4 / 5
In this race I’m going to try and beat the heavy favorite in Essential Quality. Weyburn has early speed that can press the pace and possibly hold off a late bid from Essential Quality.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
