It’s that time again folks! Football is near and many people will be depositing money into their local sportsbooks to begin their NFL and college football betting season! Since PASPA was reprieved, more and more sports books are looking to get your dollar and make their own bet that you will not be profitable. The competition for your dollar is so great, that these books offer large free deposit incentives to attract your business. Some incentives are just money where you have to roll your deposit over 10 to 20 times before you are allotted a payout, which can be very time consuming, and some books just give you a free bet deposit bonus to give you a chance to start your season ahead in the black. Now as we all know with sports, no bet is guaranteed and we do not have to look back very far for that when just last season the New York Jets beat the LA Rams in LA on week 15 as a +17 point dog. No bet is completely safe in this business, so it’s better to make sure that you retain some money rather than chance it all on one shot. Do you like guarantees? I like guarantees and the way that I look at it is that a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Here is how we are going to guarantee a payout from a free bet.
The average deposit bonus that sports books give out are about $500 with a $1000+ deposit so I am going to use that number, but please feel free to plug in your own numbers respectfully. Instead of making one single bet with that $500, the best way to do it is by staggering a parlay. A staggered parley means that you bet two teams in your parlay that play at two different times, for example you could bet the Bears game on Sunday at 1PM ET with the Giants game on Monday night. We are going to use the normal -110 juice in our calculations being that most football betting lines are going to be at or close to these numbers. After the parlay bet has been made, we then must bet or “hedge” the other side at the -110 juice in order to guarantee a profit. If your hedge loses, then you have to bet even more money on the opposite side in the second game to cover your first hedge and also make the same profit. How do I know how much to bet you ask? Well, guessing unfortunately is a more difficult option because you could go into negative maximized value quite easily and blowing your own money in order to cover your free parlay isn’t fun. This is why we have an equation to help us which is called the maximum profit equation. X + Y + Z = your total payout.
A -110 juiced two team parlay pays at 2.64X so for that $500 the payout would be approximately $1320.00. In this equation, the X and Y are the variables that relate to each other, and the Z is your total of the two variables with respect to the rate (which we know as -110 or 1.1). For us, the Z is your second bet (If needed since your first leg of the parlay could lose), the X is your first bet and Y is your guaranteed profit. Being that we are solving for Y to find a maximum guaranteed profit, I am going to transpose it as your total payout of 1320.00 – Z – X = Y since we are solving for Y to find our maximized profit. Now we know that Y is just the result of what you are betting for X over the juice of -110 or 1.1 for math purposes (because it is the most that you can make without sacrificing chance) and Z is basically (X + Y) times your rate of 1.1 in order to get your second bet. (X+Y)1.1 as stated.
$1320 – Z – X = Y
Y = X/1.1
Z = (X + Y)1.1
After seeing what Y and Z are we can simply input those expressions into our equation as $1320 – (X + X/1.1)1.1 – X = X/1.1 in order to simplify. Doing the algebra, we have $1320 – 2.1X – X = X/1.1 and for the next step we multiply the 1.1 on both sides and get $1452 – 3.41X = X. When we solve for that, we get $1452 = 4.41X and then X ends up equaling $329.25. This is the amount of your first bet at -110 to get your maximized profit $299.32. This is how much you will make no matter what happens! $299.32 is your GUARANTEED profit. The equation looks like $1320 – $691.42 – $329.26 = $299.32.
In summary, if your first hedge (bet) of $329.32 wins, you will get paid $299.32 while your parlay loses. If your first hedge wins, then you must bet $691.42 to get paid $628.56 and minus out your first bet of $329.26, and you get about $299.30 (it would be $299.32 if we used all of the decimals and didn’t round). Finally, if you lose both hedges of $691.42 and $329.26, you then have won your $500 parlay and got paid $1320.00. Minus out the losing hedge best $1320 – $691.42 – $329.26 and you get $299.32. So there you have it. You can guarantee $299.32 cents based on playing it smart by using a staggered parlay. Should you have any questions, please feel free to tweet me @TheOddsbreakers or @OBKiev. Have a wonderful betting season and best of luck this year!
We start the day with a no sweat winner as the Rays +114 crush Cole and the Yankees 14-0. That makes us 15-12 since the All-Star break and 8-4 in our last 12 MLB plays, including our “Barking Dog” plays (which are 5-1)
DUNEDIN, FLORIDA – FEBRUARY 27: Hyun-Jin Ryu #99 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning during the spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at TD Ballpark on February 27, 2020 in Dunedin, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
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The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox close out a four-game series tonight at Fenway Park. Veteran ace lefty Hyun Jin Ryu gets the nod for the Blue Jays. He is 9-5 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 110 IP over 19 starts. The Toronto lefty has fared well against Boston batters in the past recording an aggregate .627 OPS allowed. While Boston is loaded with quality right-handed bats Ryu is one southpaw who excels against batters of the opposite hand allowing a career .664 OPS. The Red Sox will counter with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who is 7-5 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 96 1/3 IP over 19 starts. Both Toronto and Boston have been potent on offense all season but the Blue Jays offense has been even better out of the break owning the best ISO and 3rd best wOBA and wRC+ in the past 2 weeks. However, the edge in this one will be decided on whichever bullpen can limit the opposition the most. Saying that, Boston’s pen is due to regress as they have posted a .273 BABIP in the past 30 days compared to the Blue Jays .301 batting average on balls in play. We’re riding Ryu and the hotter bats in this one. Take the Blue Jays +110
Thursday Card has the A.L. West 100% Total of the Month and a 5* Gold Cup Semifinals play. MLB Comp below.
The MLB Comp Play is is on the Under 10 runs in the Baltimore at Detroit game at 7:10 eastern These two have played under in 7 of the last 8 meetings. Home favorites like Detroit that scored 10 or more runs in a road dog win are 12 of 14 under if the total is 8 or higher, and the opponent scored 5 or more runs as a home favorite like Baltimore. The Orioles have gone under in 4 of 5 vs losing teams. They have Wells going on 8 days rest and he was decent in a start vs the Rays last week. Detroit counters with Mize who has heated up and allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Based on the System and the Stat Indicators. Look for this game to stay Under. On Thursday the A.L. West TOTAL of the Month with a 100% System Headlines along with a 5* Gold Cup Semifinal Power Play. See us on facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp Play. Go Under in the Orioles and Tigers game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
After a bad Tuesday (who likes Tuesday any way? No one) we got a nice bounce back Wednesday, going 2-1 overall (and it really should have been 3-0; thanks for the late game flops, Miami). Onto a shorter card Thursday:
Yankees (-124), 2 units: This is actually a really great price on Gerrit Cole (2.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP over 125 innings) and the Yankees today, therefore my hand is forced! Cole has had some bad moments in big spots this year, including another lackluster game against the Red Sox last time out, but overall he still owns one of the most commanding profiles in baseball. His WHIP ranks 7th in the majors and he still has more strikeouts than any other thrower. Today he’ll rival Luis Patino (5.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 25.2 innings), the nice and green 21 year old who the Rays see a ton of potential in, but who also sacrificed 5 hits and 4 runs over 5.1 innings last time to Cleveland. The Yankees’ bats haven’t always performed well this year but it’s still a very intimidating group of hitters. That’s especially true if they finally allow Aaron Judge to stay in the lineup. I expect the Yankees, who need to start winning if they want to stay in the AL East race, to show-out on offense and win in a highly lopsided pitching matchup.
White Sox (-180), 1.8 units: I hate to not be as detailed here but this is basically the same handicap as above. Chicago is starting their ace Carlos Rodon (2.24 ERA, 0.92 WHIP over 100.2 innings) against Carlos Hernandez (6.04 ERA, 1.66 WHIP over 28.1 innings), KC’s 24 year old up and comer who’s had his struggles since getting the opportunity to start. The team with the more offensive prowess and considerably better pitcher is getting a price that I’m not too proud to pay– I’ll take the White Sox to win a unit.
Nationals/Phillies Game 2 over 8.5 (-115), 1.5 units: These are two teams heading in opposite directions and when one team is on the decline like the Nationals, that usually means you’ll see regression more from their defense. Personally I thought the Nationals would come out on fire after their break– their schedule is certainly favorable, but after dropping all 3 games to the Orioles and now tying up their latest series with Philly, it doesn’t appear they have the gusto or consistency to hang. I’m betting that they’ll be sellers at the trade deadline. Either way, the Nationals still have the offensive prowess to produce plenty of runs, as we saw 2 nights ago, and game 2’s pitching matchup isn’t one for either team to fear. Sometimes it’s more about offense and it’s more about the spot– I see plenty of subpar pitches and big slugs in this contest.
We have a massive show for you today. We are loaded with some season win total plays that you could put in the bank for end of this year! NFL insider and college football broadcaster Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL comes back to discuss NFL season win totals. But that’s not all!!! Adam Burke @SkatingTripods formally from Bang the Book comes on to discuss some college football season win totals and Vegas Matty @FootballContest and footballcontest.com is here to discuss the huge NFL and college Las Vegas football contests to compete to be the best of the best for the 2021 season! At the end of the show, Kiev gives out a free UFC play for the weekend for UFC Vegas 33 Hall vs Strickland. We go long on this pod so feel free to listen in segments.
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The Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles play the finale of a two-game interleague set Wednesday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Right-hander Jordan Holloway will get the start/open for the Marlins. He is 2-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 33 2/3 innings across 3 starts and 9 relief appearances. Holloway has averaged just over 3 innings pitched in his last 3 starts and owns a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 13 innings pitched in July. Orioles will counter with righty Jorge Lopez as he gets the nod in this one. Lopez is 2-12 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 94 IP across 20 starts. Saying Miami and Baltimore have been below average offenses this season is an understatement. However, the Marlins rank 4th in the league in hits and has scored 37 runs against righties since the break and leads the league in batting average versus right-handed pitching in the past week. The O’s have the worst wOBA this season versus right-handers and also have a bullpen that ranks 21st in WHIP (1.38), 25th ERA (4.87) and 22nd opponent batting average (.244). The edge in this one is the Marlins bullpen who will be entering the game, most likely, in the 3rd or 4th inning. Miami’s pen has been excellent all year posting a 3rd best 1.18 WHIP, 8th best .222 opponent batting average, 4th best 3.43 ERA and have held opponents to the 2nd least amount of longballs this season (32). Take the Marlins +103
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We are 14-9 since the All-Star break and 7-1 in our last 8 MLB plays, including our “Barking Dog” plays (which are a perfect 5-0). I will be posting one “Barking Dog” pick this afternoon! Stay tuned!
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With first pitch scheduled for 4:15 ET, The Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres close out a two-game interleague series Wednesday at Petco Park. Lefty Sean Manaea will hone the mound for the Athletics. Through 20 starts this season, he is 7-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 116 2/3 IP. Manaea is coming off a tremendous July 22 start at the Seattle Mariners fanning a season-high 13 batters while allowing 1 run on 3 hits over 7 IP. Manaea has been excellent in road starts posting a 2.94 ERA, 3.07 xFIP and 1.10 WHIP on the season. Left-hander Blake Snell gets the start for the Friers. He is 4-3 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 80 1/3 IP spanning 18 starts. Snell is pitching at home for the first time since June 22 where he owns a 1.43 ERA, 2.74 xFIP and 1.04 WHIP over seven starts and 37 2/3 IP at Petco Park this season. Oakland and San Diego bats have cooled off over the past week ranking 18th and 22nd in the league in wOBA. On the season, both ball clubs rank in the bottom half of the league verses left-handing pitching in batting average, SLG, OPS, and wOBA so there’s a lot to like about Manaea and Snell’s home/road splits in this one. Additionally, the bullpens have been strong all year and continue to thrive ranking in the top 10 in ERA and WHIP this season. Take Under 8 runs
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The MLB Comp Play for Wednesday is on the NY. Mets at 7:10 eastern. The Mets were beat pretty good last night. Tonight they have Tylor Megil makes the start on his birthday and he has been super with a 2.10 era in his 6 starts. He takes on Fried for Atlanta who has allowed 14 runs in his last 22 innings. The Met were pounded 20-2 worst loss of the season back in June when they faced him. So a little payback is in order tonight and the Mets fit a nice bounce back system that is 17-6 since 2004. The Braves are 0-6 off a win of late and the Mets are 4-0 off a loss and 6-2 on Wednesdays. Look for the Met to take this one tonight. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Golf returned to the Olympics in the 2016 Rio Summer games after a 112 year hiatus. The ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic caused the 2020 Tokyo Olympics to be rescheduled to this summer. As of now, the games are underway with no major issues arising. However, the Olympic Committee has warned that if an outbreak were to occur the games would be shut down immediately. With all Olympic events this year, no spectators will be allowed. The course was said to have a capacity of 25,000.
Golf in the Olympics is contentious as it isn’t truly the “peak” of the sport. While representing your country holds a special place in some guys hearts, most of the top golfers in the world have chosen to skip the event. Players skipping was also a trend back in 2016, with most of the players citing the Zika virus as the reason for not wanting to make the trip to Brazil. The PGA and European Tour have both tried to put pressure on players to attend but it hasn’t been effective. The biggest issue with scheduling, The Open was two weeks ago in England and now these guys have to fly to Tokyo, Japan if they want to compete in the Olympics. The PGA Tour doesn’t have an event next week however, the World Golf Championship is in two weeks.
Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim of South Korea, both dropped out of The Open to prep for the Olympics. All athletes from South Korea who win an Olympic medal are allowed to forgo a two-year military stint, which is mandatory for males between ages 18-28. So a spot on the podium means a little more for those two as they are looking to continue their careers on the PGA Tour without having a two year pause.
Notable withdraws/ Covid-19 Cases: Bryson Dechambeau (USA- COVID-19), Dustin Johnson (USA- Electing to Skip), Jon Rahm (Spain- COVID-19) Tyrell Hatton (Great Britain- Electing to Skip), Matthew Fitzpatrick (Great Britain- Electing to Skip), Lee Westwood (Great Britain- Electing to Skip), Sergio Garcia (Spain- Electing to Skip), Rafa Cabrera Bello (Spain- Electing to Skip), Adam Scott (Australia- Electing to Skip), Louis Oosthuizen (South Africa- Electing to Skip), Henrik Stenson (Sweden- Failed to Qualify), Bernd Wiesberger (Austria- Electing to Skip), Martin Kaymer (Germany – Electing to Skip), Emiliano Grillo (Argentina- Electing to Skip)
Olympic History (1900, 1904, 2016, 2020*):
Golf at the Olympics was first introduced at the 1900 Summer Olympics that were held in Paris, France. The event was a 36-hole stroke play tournament at the Compiegne Club. The Compiegne Club Golf Club was built in 1896 and was one of the only courses built outside of Great Britain or Ireland in the 19th century. The golf course was designed by M.W. Freemantle and located inside the horse racing track in Compiegne. Charles Sands from the United States took home the gold medal defeating Walter Rutherford of Great Britain by one stroke. The 1900 Olympics was the first Olympics that women were able to compete in. Margaret Abbot of the United States won the gold medal and became the first woman to win a gold medal in the Olympic games. Margaret’s mother, Mary Abbott, also competed in the event and finished seventh, making them the first and only mother and daughter that have competed in the same event at the same time. Margaret Abbott actually didn’t even know she won an Olympic Medal at the time and just happened to compete at the event because she was coincidently in Paris at the time.
In 1904, the Summer Olympics took place in Saint Louis, Missouri. The golf event was held at Glen Echo Country Club and featured a much different format than in 1900. The 1904 tournament started with a 36-hole stroke play qualifying round. The top 32 qualifies out of the 75 participants then faced off in a 5 round match play tournament with each match consisting of 36 holes. The rounds were played on consecutive days so the finalists, George Lyon and Chandler Egan ended up playing 216 holes in six days. George Lyon of Canada bested Chandler Egan of the US to win the golf medal. He was one of three players participating in the event that wasn’t from the US.
Golf was set to continue at the 1908 Summer Olympics in Great Britain but issues arose between the The Royal & Ancients and the Olympic Golf Committee. The cause of the issue remains unknown and golf was no long an Olympic event before making it’s return in 2016 at the Summer Games in Rio De Janeiro.
The 2016 Rio Olympics were a mess to say the least, with the course barely being completed on time. Most of the holes didn’t have yardage markers on them. Many of the worlds top golfers withdrew due to the Zika Virus. It featured a traditional format with a 72-hole individual stroke play tournament. Justin Rose of Great Britain won the event in the men’s competition.
The Qualification for the Olympics is quite different than the PGA or any other Professional Tour. The official qualifying period ended the day after the U.S. Open, June 21. So here’s how it works, the Top 15 Golfers in the Olympic Golf Rankings (basically the World Golf Rankings) are eligible for the Olympics up to a maximum of four golfers per country. Once the top 15 are selected, the rest of the field is filled until getting to 60 golfers going down the order in the Olympic Golf Rankings. The top two golfers qualify from any country that does not have two or more players in from the top 15. As the host country, Japan is guaranteed a minimum of two golfers in the field. If a player declines the invitation, the next eligible golfer from that country can take that spot.
The Kasumigaseki Country Club was founded in 1929 and has hosted several professional and amateur tournaments. The course itself is located about 35 miles from downtown Tokyo. Site of the 1957 World Cup that Japan won and launched them into the international golf world. Kasumigaseki Country Club has two courses, an East and a West. The club is extremely private and a somewhat controversial choice to host a Olympic Event due to it’s policies. Prior to 2017, the club did not award full membership and playing rights to female members. However that was changed due to pressure from the International Olympic Committee. The Kasumigaseki Country Club was the first ever 36-hole golf course in Japan and the first to implement dual greens – a feature unique to courses in Japan. The double greens are used for the change in seasons with one being used in summer and they other during winter.
Tom Fazio and his son Logan completely redesigned this course five years ago to what we think off as a modern course now. During that modernization, they added nearly 400 yards to the course rewarding the long ball hitter. They also got rid of the traditional double greens, and reconfigured the fairways and bunkers.
Hideki Matsuyama who’s competing for Japan, won the Asian Amateur Championships at Kasumigaseki Country Club back in 2010.
Course Breakdown:
From what I’ve heard/ read this course is in absolutely immaculate shape and manicured to to perfection. The weather in Tokyo has been mentioned a lot and will be a factor here. The current forecast is calling for low 90’s and extremely humid conditions. Let’s take a look at this golf course, starting with the tee shot. Unlike The Open which featured plenty of blind tee shots, every shot off the tee is visible which will help with the much needed accuracy off the tee. While water isn’t much of a factor, at all as it’s only in play on 3 holes, most fairways are lined with tree’s. Driving will be key this weekend, and will give the long hitters a slight advantage due to the length of this course. The fairway width was trimmed during the Fazio renovation to match the green shaping.
The course features three Par 5’s (Holes 5, 8, 14) with Hole 5 longest playing 640 yards which is insane. The other Par 5’s aren’t much better as Hole 8 is listed at 586 yards and Hole 14 plays 625 yards. All of the Par 3’s (Holes 4, 7, 10, 16) on the course play over 200 yards except for Hole 10 which is listed at 189 yards. The longest Par 3 is Hole 4, this hole is listed at 237 yards.
Professional Tournaments Previously Held at Course:
An interesting note with the time difference is that the actual tournament starts on July 29th, but for North American viewers the tournament will start on the evening of the 28th.
Round 1: Wednesday, July 28, 2021 – Golf Channel– 6:30 PM- 3:00 AM EDT
Round 2: Thursday, July 29, 2021 – Golf Channel – 6:30- 3:00 AM PM EDT
Round 3: Friday, July 30, 2021 – Golf Channel – 6:30- 3:00 AM PM EDT
Round 4: Saturday, July 31, 2021 – Golf Channel – 6:30- 3:00 AM PM EDT
For all rounds of the tournament, the players will be in groups of three. Depending on pending confirmation from the Olympic Broadcasting Services, groups will either start on only Hole 1 or both Holes 1 and 10. For Rounds 1 and 2, the groups will be published on July 27, two days before the event. As with most tournaments, the groups for rounds 3 and 4 will be based off their cumulative score.
Being that we are solving for Y to find a maximum guaranteed profit, I am going to transpose it as your total payout of 1320.00 – Z – X = Y since we are solving for Y to find our maximized profit. Now we know that Y is just the result of what you are betting for X over the juice of -110 or 1.1 for math purposes (because it is the most that you can make without sacrificing chance) and Z is basically (X + Y) times your rate of 1.1 in order to get your second bet. (X+Y)1.1 as stated.
