The Independence Day slates run July 3 through Monday, July 5 offering six stakes races including a pair of Breeders’ Cup Win and You’re In qualifiers led by the Grade 2, Suburban. The Breeders Cup Classic will be run on November 6th at Del Mar.
Race Information:
Track: Belmont Park (Elmont, New York)
Event Grade: II
Race: 10
Post Time: 5:44 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Miles (10 Furlongs)
Purse: $400,000
Division: Fillies & Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up
Surface: Main- Dirt
Field:
Moretti (Flavien Prat), 8-1
Informative (Manuel Franco), 15-1
Prioritize (Joel Rosario), 10-1
Mystic Guide (Luis Saez), 1-1
Max Player (Ricardo Santana Jr.), 10-1
Happy Saver (Irad Ortiz Jr.), 9-5
Betting Preview:
MYSTIC GUIDE enters the G2 Suburban as the top ranked horse in the current NTRA Thoroughbred poll. He’s the horse to beat in this race as he’s the morning line favorite at even money. This race features a rematch of the G1 Jockey Gold Cup where MYSTIC GUIDE was edged by out HAPPY SAVER. MYSTIC GUIDE will try to capture the winners share of the $400,000 purse here to add to his already impressive bankroll of over $7 million. In his 2021 debut he cruised to victory in the G3 Razorback Handicap. HAPPY SAVER remains unbeaten after five starts and is coming off an easy win in an allowance race at Belmont. He’s the second choice in this race based off morning line odds however, that could shift before post time. MORETTI made his 2021 debut in the G2 Brooklyn where he finished third. However, he has hit the board in his last eight starts. He’s had success at this distance before but, is slightly out matched with the quality in this field. MAX PLAYER has not had much recent success with his most recent victory coming back in 2020, at the G3 Withers. In 2020, he also took third in the G1 Belmont Stakes and G1 Travers. Most recently he finished eleventh in the G1 Saudi Cup and sixth in the Pimlico Special. PRIORTIZE has made the jump in class recently and has had some mild success. He’ll face familiar foes in MYSTIC GUIDE and HAPPY SAVER. He faced them in the G1 Jockey Gold Cup where wound up finished fourth. In 2020, he took placed third in the G1 Woodward Handicap. INFORMATIVE is a long shot and rightly priced at 15-1 morning line odds. I don’t envision him hitting the board in this race or even being close. However, his Trainer Uriah St. Lewis has had success with long shots in Stakes Races before.
The Tampa Bay Lightning took Game 2 by a score of 3-1 after being outplayed all game. Montreal finished the game with 3.59 expected goals to the Lightning’s 2.37. Andrei Vasilevskiy had another outstanding performance with a +2.59 GSAx. This performance may have been fueled by spite after losing the Vezina Trophy on Tuesday to Fleury. Carey Price had Game 2 with a -0.63 GSAx struggling in back to back games. The Canadiens return home for Game 3 and look to try and make this a series. In order to do that they’ll need to have more offensive production. In the first two games, Montreal has managed to score only 2 goals.
Tampa Bay Lightning (-135) @ Montreal Canadiens (+115)
Montreal will get their interim head coach back tonight after a two week absence following a positive Covid-19 test. The Bell Center has also increased capacity tonight which should provide some much needed support for the Habs. Alex Killorn remains sidelined for the Lightning and will not play in Game 3. Tyler Johnson will stay on the second line with Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli. Johnson played well in Game 2 picking up an assist on first Lightning goal by Cirelli.
In order to win tonight’s game, Montreal will look for their netminder Carey Price have an outstanding game. He’s finished Game 1 and 2 with -GSAx which has been unlike him in these playoffs. Nick Suzuki scored the lone goal in Game 2, and is tied with Tyler Toffoli with 14 points for the Canadiens leading scorer. The Canadiens will also look to try and find a way to shut down Kucherov-Point-Palat line who have dominated them this series.
The Canadiens are the home dogs once again but the line has shifted from the first two games where the Bolts were heavy favorites. I’ve been on the Canadiens for the first two games and that clearly has not worked out but, I don’t think their done yet. They have defied all odds to get to the finals so who’s to say they won’t do it again here. This is a must win game for them if they want to have a chance so I’m expecting to see their best effort tonight. For Game 3, I’m looking at backing them again. They outplayed the Lightning in Game 2 but got unlucky with the second and third goals. In front of their home crowd they defeat the Lightning and look to even up the series in Game 4.
I love the fact that I get a brief break from NBA action and we can solely focus on baseball and other sports (I’m betting on tennis, the EURO cup, and hockey today in my premium picks. DM me on Twitter to get my premium plays). Here are the bets I like in MLB today:
Padres/Phillies No Run in 1st Inning (-125), 1.5 units: There’s a lot to like about Chris Paddack as a starting pitcher but lately he’s had his share of struggles. I love this bet as a way of backing a pitcher who’s really itching for some positive regression. Today Paddack and the loaded Padres take on Zack Wheeler and his Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Paddack has given up way too many earned runs in June and will look to turn that around today against a foe that doesn’t always bring the heat behind their bats. Wheeler has been consistent all year and he’s only getting better, boasting a 1.44 ERA in June over 31.1 innings. I like the under in the first 5 and for the full game but I like a play on the first inning going scoreless even more. Both of these clubs have the offensive talent to upend this contest but I anticipate both pitchers being on their A-game early.
Nationals win (+105), 1 unit: Why do I keep betting on the Nationals? Because they’re still getting underrated by the books. I’m not too certain that the Dodgers are that much better than the home team tonight and although they lost in a 6-inning cut-off game Thursday, Washington will be all the more poised with their ace on the mound in Max Scherzer (2.14 ERA, 0.85 WHIP over 88.1 innings). Even when he’s getting strip-searched, it’s easy to back Scherzer at home. It’s even easier when his numbers are improving– his ERA is down to 1.42 in June and his 90.2% LOB rate, steady velocity, and propensity to strikeout any hitter sustains Scherzer’s stock as still one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB. Trae Turner is a big part of the Nationals’ turnaround 2021 season so I don’t love that he jammed his finger but the Washington offense still has plenty of firepower to beat Julio Urias (3.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP over 93.1 innings) today. Urias is a consistent, good not great starter who rarely goes beyond 6 innings. I think the Nats can catch him early and force the LAD bullpen into a hasty entrance. I’ll take the Nats at + money for a light unit.
Mets First 5 +0.5 (-115), 2 units: The stumbling Mets, who are still first place in the NL East, take on the equally stumbling Yankees today in the 7:05pm slot. Taijuan Walker (2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP over 79.1 innings) will get the nod against his inner-city rival and that’s something I’d like to play on tonight. Walker was recently brought back down to earth after an explosion of offense from Washington in his second to last start. While that wasn’t a good look it was also an anomaly. What I really like about this matchup today is Walker’s ability to limit homeruns. The Yankees almost exclusively rely on big slugs and homers to produce offense from their power hitters and that’s an area where Walker thrives, allowing only 0.57 HR/9 innings and showing off a LOB rate of 77.9%. Jordon Montgomery (4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 82 innings) will oppose the Mets’ offense. While Montgomery has shown some nice stuff in spurts he struggles with consistency, allowing at least 3 runs per game in 4 out of 5 contests last month. Since both of these clubs are having issues producing points on a regular basis, I’ll trust the superior arm in the first 5.
Rockies -1.5 (+165), 1 unit: Why not? The Rockies keep overcoming the odds and winning my margin at their home field and today the Cardinals bring one of their more vulnerable pitchers to the mound in Johan Oviedo (5.23 ERA, 1.58 WHIP over 43 innings). Nothing in his profile suggests that he can keep these confident Rockies’ bats at bay– Colorado’s hitters have outscored their opponents 21-4 during this 4-game stretch in Denver. Chi Chi Gonzalez (5.81 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 69.2 innings) is no stalwart ace for the Rockies but if he can return to form like he did earlier in the season at home, this could be a blowout today. He’s due for a better showing. I’m on the Rockies by margin, again.
Rangers win (EVEN), 1.5 units: Two teams are streaking entering tonight’s contest but only one is getting the love they deserve. In 6 games this year the Mariners have gotten the best out of the Rangers on 4 different occasions, but what they haven’t experienced is a game opposing Kyle Gibson (2.00 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 90 innings). Texas’ ace is only getting better as the season trudges on, flexing a 1.52 ERA in June. Gibson’s profile is especially impressive in how little homeruns he allows (.60/9 innings) and for his impressive command, as his 85.1% LOB rate and .240 BABIP suggest. The Rangers haven’t had an issue finding their bats lately and while Logan Gilbert (4.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 36 innings) has done some nice things recently for Seattle, I’ll give the edge to a confident Texas offense and the dominant pitcher in Gibson.
The MLB Comp Play is on The Chicago Whitesox at 7:10 eastern. Chicago has dominated Detroit here winning the last 5. The Sox also apply to a nice 2021 Specific league wide system that plays on road favorites off a home win where they scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent like Detroit that had 1 or no errors in their last game. These road favorites are 13-2 this year. Chicago has won 6 of 7 after scoring 5 or more runs and they are 42-13 vs a losing team. They have Lance Lynn pitching and he has a 2.17 era over a full run lower then Detroit starter Casey Mize. Based on the Numbers and the system we will play on the Whitesox tonight.. On Friday we have a Powerful card up with Top totals Play in the Euro 2020 Soccer Tournament, and Our Highest Rated NHL Total in game 3 of the Stanley Cup a Top Rated MLB Platinum Supreme Play and an Early Wimbledon Tennis Play. See us on facebook to jump on. For the MLB Comp Play. Go with the Chicago Whitesox. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports- Actual 13-2 System Below
SU: 13-2
Apr 08, 2021 box Thu away Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez – L Orioles Matt Harvey – R 7-3 4 W 0.5 O 12-5 1-1 4-1 -165 9.5 9
Apr 09, 2021 box Fri away Reds Tyler Mahle – R Diamondbacks Taylor Widener – R 6-5 1 W 2.0 O 11-6 0-1 5-0 -145 9.0 10+
Apr 17, 2021 box Sat away Mets Jacob deGrom – R Rockies Chi Chi Gonzalez – R 4-3 1 W 0.0 P 11-3 1-1 1-2 -280 7.0 7
Apr 23, 2021 box Fri away Athletics Cole Irvin – L Orioles Jorge Lopez – R 3-1 2 W -5.5 U 7-10 1-0 3-0 -135 9.5 9
Apr 23, 2021 box Fri away Royals Mike Minor – L Tigers Casey Mize – R 6-2 4 W -0.5 U 8-5 0-1 6-0 -116 8.5 9
May 07, 2021 box Fri away Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez – L Orioles Matt Harvey – R 6-2 4 W -0.5 U 7-11 1-1 4-0 -158 8.5 9
May 18, 2021 box Tue away Rays Luis Patino – R Orioles Matt Harvey – R 13-6 7 W 10.0 O 15-9 0-0 9-0 -150 9.0 9
May 18, 2021 box Tue away Brewers Brandon Woodruff – R Royals Kris Bubic – L 0-2 -2 L -5.5 U 3-5 3-0 0-2 -160 7.5 9
May 21, 2021 box Fri away Cubs Kyle Hendricks – R Cardinals Carlos Martinez – R 12-3 9 W 6.5 O 12-9 2-2 9-0 -122 8.5 9
May 31, 2021 box Mon away Mets Jacob deGrom – R Diamondbacks Merrill Kelly – R 6-2 4 W 0.5 O 13-8 0-0 5-0 -175 7.5 9
Jun 04, 2021 box Fri away Dodgers Julio Urias – L Braves Ian Anderson – R 9-5 4 W 5.0 O 4-7 1-1 7-1 -140 9.0 9
Jun 14, 2021 box Mon away Rays Tyler Glasnow – R White Sox Lance Lynn – R 5-2 3 W -0.5 U 9-5 1-1 3-0 -120 7.5 9
Jun 18, 2021 box Fri away Indians Jean Carlos Mejia – R Pirates Chad Kuhl – R 10-11 -1 L 12.0 O 12-9 0-1 0-10 -125 9.0 9
Jun 21, 2021 box Mon away Astros Jake Odorizzi – R Orioles Keegan Akin – L 10-2 8 W 1.5 O 13-2 0-1 10-0 -160 10.5 9
Jun 29, 2021 box Tue away Padres Craig Stammen – R Reds Tony Santillan – R 5-4 1 W -1.5 U 12-8 0-2 4-0 -135 10.5 9
Jul 02, 2021 box Fri away White Sox Lance Lynn – R Tigers Casey Mize – R -155 8.0
This game stuck out some to me. The Giants are coming off of a disappointing 2 losses in a row courtesy of the now healthy LA Dodgers. The Diamondbacks have actually fared far worse losing 7 out of their last 8 games and they have only won 2 total games since June 1st. Ouch! Now why is that? Let’s do the math. Oh yeah. They are bad at baseball that’s why. Arizona is dead last in run differential at -117 so we can’t even call all of this cluster luck. The Giants are a top 2 team in home runs while Merrill Kelly takes the mound sporting a bad 4.70 ERA, 3.96 FIP and 1.29 WHIP. The Giants have Cueto at the mound who is actually a better road pitcher at 3.44 away FIP compared to a 3.9 total FIP. I think that the Giants get a feel good win here while the Diamondbacks continue to struggle on offense and defense.
Our parlay never had a chance last night as the Twins got smacked by the White Sox but the Angels won and our two other bets hit for + money. After a 2-1 day, I like even more underdogs today! Let’s keep it rollin’!
Nationals win (+130), 1 unit: Ya think the Nats-bats are feelin’ good these days? Washington dropped 15 on the Rays yesterday (we called that), which gives them 32 runs in their last 4 games. Not surprisingly, they’ve also won 4 straight during that span. They also dropped 15 on Tampa Bay without any help from Kyle Schwarber on his historic run. He went 0-4 Wednesday. Today the streaking Dodgers come to town and while that’s always intimidating, especially when LAD is surging, the Nationals aren’t scared. These two elites have faced many times in the past and I have to believe this series means more to Washington. The Dodgers swept the Nationals in 3 games at Dodger Stadium back in April. The Nationals didn’t score in two of those contests but me thinks something might change today. Not all of these MLB games are about the pitchers and although LAD has the edge in their thrower today, the Nats are rested, remain at home, and their bats are WHITE hot. Sometimes we have to be bullish and bet baseball based on offense and I’m betting that the Nats whack the Dodgers today for + money.
Padres win (+105), 1.5 units: The Padres have the better pitcher today in Ryan Weathers (2.47 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 47.1 innings) and they’re overdue a win after losing 3 of their last 4. They’ve also owned the Reds this year, winning 6 straight against Cincinnati (and 4 of those by margin). I’ll gladly take the better team on the road.
Rockies -1.5 (+170), 1 unit: The Rockies continue to look like an exceptional ballclub when they play at the comfort of their very own Coors Field in Denver. After a clean 3-game sweep of the Pirates at home, a series in which they out-scored Pittsburgh 16-2, the Rockies take their confident bats against Adam Wainwright (3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP over 92.2 innings) and the equally humming Cardinals in the 8:40 EST slot. Wainwright has been solid this year but he can certainly lose command. At Coors against a feisty Rockies’ bunch, I think he might get exposed. Antonio Senzatela (4.76 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 81.1 innings) doesn’t have the best numbers but he’s steadily improved as the season wanes on and he’s had some elite games at home, allowing no earned runs or only 1 earned run on multiple occasions against good offenses. The Rockies are 28-16 in front of their fans and at this altitude, many of their wins come by margin– I’m on Colorado by more than 1.
Thursday card has the Round 3 Semifinal Playoff Perfect System side and a Powerful MLB Card with a Diamond Cutter Blowout System. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB Comp Play is on the NY. Mets at 7:20 eastern. The Mets will look to rebound with their ace tonight. deGrom goes for NY and they have won his last 8 starts. The Mets are 10-2 with a total of 6.5 or less and 22-7 when favored. Jake is off a tough tart allowing 2 run in 6 innings. For a Guy to have that stat line and have his Era climb .19 it just hows how dominant he has been. Anderson for Atlanta has lost 5 of his last 6 starts. For a tech system we note that since 2004 road favorites in this range with a total of 8 or less off a road dog loss win 81% of the time vs a team that scored 10 or more runs at home. Look for the Mets to take the finale. On Thursday we tart July off with our top rated NBA Round 3 Play of the Year backed with a Never lost semifinal historical system along with a Powerful MLB Card with a Diamond Cutter Blowout system dating to 2004. See us on facebook to Jump on and cash out on Thursday. For the MLB Comp play. Make it the Mets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
One NBA team has officially made the NBA Finals– who’s next?! We’re 13-8 over the last 10 days in NBA betting after last night’s performance by the Suns stifled my 2 picks. All good — we move on to this injury-prone series between the Hawks and Bucks, where my bets will look a little different tonight. Happy Friday’s eve!
Today’s bets won’t be very traditional because this isn’t a traditional game. I’m not sure how to tackle a side or total considering Trae Young’s status is still uncertain, and even if he plays it’s likely he’ll be a different version of himself, and it looks like Giannis will sit out tonight, too. I lean the Bucks at home as a slight favorite since I think they’re the better all-around team and the crowd-advantage should help. I also lean the under 215.5 since I expect another feisty, scrappy contest, not to mention the fact that both units are missing their superstars. Those are just leans, though. Instead, I’ll fire away on a few prop bets.
The Hawks did a fantastic job in game four rallying around each other and their ailed star. Both teams will need big efforts from role players in game five. Here are the players and the player props I’m betting on:
Khris Middleton over 27.5 points (-116), 2 units: The up and down trends of Khris Middleton continue. We called his lapse in game four and it came true– of course the blowout nature of that game only helped us. Either way Middleton regressed, as he usually does, and was only 6/17 from the field. Despite our criticism of the Bucks #2 role player (and my comparing him to a bag of Doritos…) he should have ample opportunities to avenge himself tonight with Giannis sitting out. Above all other players, Middleton should play the most minutes and have the most shot attempts of any Buck. I’m on his over.
PJ Tucker over 5.5 points (-114), 1.5 units: Game four showed us an enlivened and more aggressive PJ Tucker in the 1st quarter and I think that version will show up throughout game five tonight. With Giannis out and more bodies needed in the front court, expect Tucker, who’s built like a damn linebacker, to throw his body into the mix for some high percentage field goals. He’s also good for a nice 3-ball here and there. This is a low prop in a game where a lot of Milwaukee players need to step up– I think he surpasses the 5.5 with ease.
John Collins over 8.5 rebounds (-123), 1.5 units: If anyone will benefit from Giannis’ absence on defense and Capela’s limited capacity on offense, it’s John Collins. The stringy forward is no stranger to aggressive play and the Hawks have shown they have no lack of energy on the road. With Giannis out and Capela questionable entering tonight, someone will need to step up and fill the holes in the front court for Atlanta. I’m on Collins to have a big rebounding night and you may want to look at his P/R/A props, too.
We have a fantastic show for you today! Brian Edwards from MajorWager.com and Vegasinsider.com comes on to discuss some NBA, College Football as well as a first look at UFC 264 with a few plays. First, Brian and Kiev get right into the NBA and Brian’s Atlanta Hawks in previewing the next game. Next, the guys first get right into the college football landscape and how the supreme courts 9-0 ruling that players can make money off of their own likeness could affect college sports in the near future. Then, Brian and Kiev talk some more college football with a few season win totals that they like right off the bat as well as some SEC chat. Finally, the guys talk a little UFC 264 with a few plays coming up the following weekend!
For only 24.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop!
Should you need a sportsbook please visit mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “Theoddsbreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
