The Rocket Mortgage Preview & Picks

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June 30, 2021

The Travelers Championship did not disappoint with Harris English defeating Kramer Hickok on the eighth hole of the playoffs. This playoff matched the second-longest sudden-death playoff in PGA Tour history. We did not have a great week to say the least at the Travelers Championship. Abraham Ancer finished two strokes behind English and Hickok for fourth, after struggling in the first round.

We move onto the third edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club which debuted in 2019. Bryson Dechambeau will look to defend his title against a solid field. This week’s tournament features two top 10 golfers in the world (Dechambeau & Reed). In addition to those two, it also includes 13 previous major champions. Phil Mickelson will be making his tournament debut marking his first start in Michigan since 2008. This was one of the first tournaments back from the PGA Tour’s Covid-19 pause but, unlike last year, fans will be allowed on the ground.

Tournament Information:

Dates: July 1, 2021- July 4, 2021
Location: Detroit, Michigan, United States
Course: Detroit Golf Club North Course
Par: 72
Length: 7,334 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
Greens: Poa Annua w/ Bentgrass mix
Fairways: Blue grass
Purse: $7,500,000 / Winner $1.35 Million

Scorecard:

Hole	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Out
Yards	397	453	387	635	167	461	552	372	207	3631
Par	4	4	4	5	3	4	5	4	3	36

Hole	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	In	Total
Yards	425	233	459	393	555	160	446	577	455	3703	7334
Par	4	3	4	4	5	3	4	5	4	36	72

Course Guide:

This is one of the shortest and easiest course on the PGA Tour as shown by the previous winners scores. That trend should continue this week and should be a birdie fest with the course playing soft. As with most Donald Ross courses, the greens will be where this tournament is won. Detroit Golf Club is a tree lined course with water on featuring only on the 14th hole. The course has a standard breakdown of 4-par 3s, 10- par 4s, and 4-par 5’s. The Par 5’s on this course are particular long as compared to the PGA Tour averages which does give the long hitters a slight advantage on their approach shots.

Course Designer/ Comparable Courses:

Designer: Donald Ross

Comparable Courses:

TPC Twin Cities
Sea Island GC
TPC Deere Run
TPC Craig Ranch
Memorial Park

Weather:

Thursday: PM Showers 70 F, 10 mp/h ESE, 72% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
Friday: Partly Cloudy 68 F, 8 mp/h SE, 65% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Partly Cloudy 71 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 63% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 8 mp/h SSW, 62% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, July 1, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, July 2, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, July 3, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM and CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, July 4, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM and CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Tournament Trends & Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Birdies Gained / Opportunities Gained
Stoked Gained: Approach
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Par 5
Strokes Gained: Total (Easy Courses)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Total & Poa Annua)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Donald Ross Designs

Stokes Gained Skill Averages based off Previous Winners:

2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
2019: Nate Lashley (-25)

Previous Winners & Prices:

2020: Bryson DeChambeau (7-1)
2019: Nate Lashley (250-1)

Picks (Outright):

Patrick Reed (+1500)
- Risk: 0.50 to win 7.5 Units
Joaquinn Niemann (+2500)
- Risk: 0.30 to win 7.5 Units
Jason Kokrak (+2800)
- Risk: 0.27 to win 7.56 Units
Keegan Bradley (+4000)
- Risk: 0.19 to win 7.6 Units
Max Homa (+6000)
- Risk: 0.13 to win 7.8 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.39 Units

Picks (Top 20):

Webb Simpson (+125)
- Risk 1.0 to win 1.25

Kevin Kisner (+175)
- Risk 1.0 to win 1.75

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.0 Units

Picks (Matchups TNT):

M. Wolff (+110) over G. Woodland
- Risk 1.0 to win 1.1

Total Risk on Matchups: 1.0 Unit

Total Risk on the Rocket Mortgage Championship: 4.39 Units

Year to Date: +0.26 Units

Rob Vinciletti: Stanley Cup Finals Game 2

By

Rob Vinciletti

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June 30, 2021

The NHL Game 2 Power System Play is on Montreal at 8:10 eastern. The Canadiens fit the rare system below for Playoff road dogs off a road loss and previous home dog win and a road win prior to that. These dogs are a perfect 4-0. We arent ready to write off a Montreal team that knocked out a Vegas team that is as good as Tampa. In fact the Canadiens are 10-1 with 1 day of rest and 4-0 after scoring 2 or less goals. They are no strangers to an upset win taking 9 of 12 straight up as a dog. Tampa and non bubble playoff teams are just 1-3 as a home favorite off a home favored win scoring 5 or more and a prior home win scoring 4 or less. Look for Montreal to spring another upset. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Stanley Cup Preview & Picks – Game 2

By

Patrick Gates

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June 30, 2021

Tampa Bay dominated Game 1 and proved why they were heavy favorites. They were able to match Montreal’s physicality while also burying 5 goals in a rout. The Lightning finished the game with 3.42 expected goals to the Canadians 2.02. Carey Price arguably had his worst game of the playoffs with a -1.58 GSAx. Kuckerov was a difference maker again for the Bolts, sparking their offense. He had 2 goals and 1 assist on the Steven Stamkos goal, who was able to put Montreal’s penalty killing streak to an end. Andrei Vasilevskiy continued to play great and shut down the Habs young guns. In Game 1 he would finish with a +1.02 GSAx.

Game 2: Montreal Canadians (+180) @ Tampa Bay Lightning (-220)

After Game 1, most have counted Montreal out but, I don’t think that’s the case at all. I believe tonight’s matchup should be much tighter than what the series opener. Carey Price had an outlier performance in Game 1 and should rebound here as history has indicated. Looking at the lineups for tonight, the goalie’s will obviously not change and should remain constant in this series unless an injury happens. Both of these goalies have played outstanding these playoffs and have earned the right to start every game. The Lightning’s lineup will be slightly different as Alex Kilorn is out for Game 2. He’s been a great second line winger for them all playoffs and a key member of their powerplay. Even with Kilorn out, this Lightning team still has so much depth. They have historically dominated the Canadians as Montreal is just 1-8-1 in their last 10 meetings. The Canadians clearly need to make adjustments tonight and that starts with their defense. In Game 1, they clearly placed an emphasis on Kucherov but wasn’t really effective at all. They also took a lot of dumb penalties which they’ll need to avoid in Game 2 to limit Tampa’s powerplay. Montreal has had a great penalty kill all playoffs but, have not faced a team with this much skill on their powerplay. The good news for the Canadians is that they have proved they can make the necessary adjustments as they have not lost back to back games since the Toronto series.

This is a tough series to bet since the Lightning will be heavy favorites in every game, so finding value will be tough. Even though the Lightning will probably win this series, Montreal ml clearly has some value here. The Canadians closed Game 1 at +160 and are now up to +180/190 for Game 2. For tonight’s game I don’t necessarily expected the Canadians to win but as mentioned before, they should keep it close. I’ll be playing the Habs +1.5 and a small bet on the money line.

Pick: Montreal Canadians +190 (Risk 0.55)

Pick: Montreal Canadians +1.5, -145 (Risk 1.45)

MLB Picks and Predictions – June 30, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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June 30, 2021

Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jordan Holloway throws a pitch against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a baseball game Monday, May 10, 2021, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Back on the mound for me as we try to figure out this wildly unpredictable game called baseball. Good handicapping wins in the long run– onto our picks!

Parlay- Angels and Twins win (1 unit to win 3.3): It’s ill-advised to take on parlays that have no relation to each other– that’s true. Over the long run you will surely lose and if you want to take these two bets separately, be my guest. I’m not an advocate of what the big public books want you to think — that we can all get rich off of insane 7-prop parlays. That’s how they steal our money. That being said, I see opportunity here with these two contests and I’d like to maximize my use of 1 unit.

Domingo German (4.32 ERA, 1.21 WHIP over 73 innings) has experienced a drop-off since May. Over his last 5 showings at the mound, German has a rough 5.12 xERA and groundball numbers on the decline. It’ll be hot, humid and annoying today in the Bronx, which isn’t a good recipe when facing off against LAA and their able bats. Insert Shohei Ohtani (2.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 59.1 innings). The MVP candidate has played well into the second half in many of his starts and owns a 2.79 ERA over his last 5 on the dirt. The dynamic Ohtani also boasts a .489 OPS against right handed pitchers. Advantage, Angels.

The 2021 Twins lineup has some damn good numbers against Dylan Cease (3.81 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 75.2 innings) — .847 OPS, .467 OBP and a .289 BAA. Cease has had some really good starts in June but we’re not sure it’s not just really good fortune. In his last 18.2 innings he’s only allowed 1 earned run– that’s not sustainable. Bailey Ober (4.64 ERA, 1.31 WHIP over 21.1 innings) had a really bad outing against the Reds on June 22 but he was solid in 4 starts prior. I expect a bounce-back performance from Ober and a Twins lineup unafraid to take advantage of Cease’s vulnerabilities equaling a win.

Rays/Nats over 9.5 (-110), 1 unit: Drew Rasmussen will get the nod today for the Rays, who probably won’t play beyond 2 innings, as he gets his second real try-out for Tampa. Traded from Milwaukee back in May, Rasmussen hopes to get his career in gear with a team built to improve their throwers. His lightning velocity and expressed potential in the minors should help his case, but Wednesday he’s facing off against a Washington offense that’s had little issue scoring in June. Charged up by the magnificence of Kyle Schwarber, who now has an unreal ( and historic) 12 homeruns over the last 10 games, other great Nats hitters like Trae Turner and Juan Soto surely feel less pressure to hold the offense on their back. Michael Wacha (TB- 4.66 ERA, 4.08 FIP over 48.1 innings) will take over early and while he has a pretty solid profile overall, the Washington bats are in a prime position on a scorching hot day in DC. You already know I love to fade Jon Lester (4.99 ERA, 1.53 WHIP over 52.1 innings) and this spot is no different. The Rays are far from one of the best offenses in MLB but they’ll likely need to chase today and Lester should be as vulnerable and accommodating as ever (especially if his last start against Miami is any indication of his inevitable in-season decline). I’m on the over.

Marlins/Phillies No Run in First Inning (+115), 1 unit: This is one of my premium picks but I’m giving it out free here today. Jordon Holloway (2.55 ERA, 1.19 WHIP over 17.2 innings) and Aaron Nola (3.97 ERA, 1.18 WHIP over 90.2 innings) are both pitchers I want to get behind. Nola isn’t having as strong a season as he has in the past but he can still strikeout batters with the best of ’em, currently 17th overall among pitchers with 107 K’s on the year. Holloway’s massive 6’6″, 230 pound frame fits his strong-armed style but he has struggled with consistency. Still, he has yet to allow a homerun this year and his solid xERA (2.84) and LOB rate (71.4%) point to a possible growth in command. I’m going to bet on both these pitchers to start off strong– though I’m too gun-shy to bet that throughout this entire contest.

Nick Hub’s MLB FREE 4% Premium Pick Video for Wednesday June 30th

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Nick Hub

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June 30, 2021

Suns vs. Clippers Game 6 Pick and Prediction – June 30, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

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June 30, 2021

Paul George posting up against Mikael Bridges.

Giannis went down with an apparent leg injury as the season of banged-up stars continues. We earned another winning night, going 2-0 in bets on the Bucks vs. Hawks. Let’s keep it rolling tonight in a high-pressure game six between LAC and PHX.

Clippers win (-105), 1 unit and
Suns/Clippers under 215 (-115), 2 units:

Oh those feisty Clippers! Tyronn Lue is an astounding 10-2 in playoff elimination games and it showed Monday– the Clippers were as focused and methodical as ever, taking charge from the opening tipoff and never letting their foot off the gas. It’s really tough to find any flaws in their performance in game five. Let’s look at the numbers:

Field Goal % – LAC: 54.8%, PHX: 45.2%
Fast Break Points – LAC: 19, PHX: 8
Points in Paint – LAC: 58, PHX: 32
Free Throw % – LAC: 93.3%, PHX: 85%

What the statistics don’t show is how incredible the Clippers were on defense. The Suns had about 100 chances to surge and take the lead in game five. Over and over again, the crowd would become raucous as the Suns’ skill players made clutch shots and brought their team within distance. But every time, literally every time, the Clippers answered by aggressively pushing the pace down the other side of the court, sinking jump-shots and 3-pointers, and then clamping down and forcing Phoenix into nearly impossible shots. At one point in the 3rd quarter, the Suns finally took a 1-point lead after a Chris Paul jump-shot. By the end of the quarter the Clippers were up by double digits. LAC controlled the pace and direction of the game from start to finish.

The totals in this series have been as follows: 234, 207, 198, 164, and 218. The lowest scores were at the Staples Center, which is where game six will be played tonight. In two games at LA’s home court, the Suns have shot 39% and 36% from the field. They’ve also only shot 31% and 20% from beyond the arc. As I wrote about in my game three article, the Clippers are extremely dangerous when they have their crowd behind them. A team known for their cerebral approach (and criticized for their lack of emotion), motivation and energy is force-fed into their souls when they play at the Staples Center and it doesn’t seem to hurt. It seems to particularly aid them on defense (not that they need it).

And then there’s Paul George. His moniker of “Playoff P” doesn’t have the same negative connotation anymore. The 2010 1st round draft pick has had his share of struggles in previous playoff series. Not this time. George has been his team’s leading scorer in every matchup against Phoenix, averaging 30.2 ppg, and he’s led his team in assists in 4 out of 5 games, too. Since I expect a defensive contest tonight, I won’t play on any of his props. That being said, his point-total is set at 30.5 and his P/R/A is set at 46.5– that feels low.

I’m not downplaying anything the Suns have done thus far. They’re a great team and certainly capable of winning the NBA Finals this year. But this is game six, at the Staples Center, and against a Clippers team full of momentum and confidence behind their all-world defense and their star in Paul George. Expect more testy and wild exchanges (if there’s a bet on a flagrant foul prop over under 0.5, I’d go over) and a close, defensive battle. I’m on the Clippers to make this a 7-game series and another game to fly under.

AFC South 2021 Preview and Season Win Totals

By

Kiev O'Neil

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June 29, 2021

The AFC South – Jacksonville was awarded the NFL’s most crumbiest team after only getting 1 win last year and it happened to be the first game of the season vs the Colts. The good news is that they are not NFL’s most pathetic team, who would be the Jets, who completely blew their chances to get Trevor Lawrence by beating the Rams. For 2021, it looks like Houston wants to make an argument for the worst team in professional football so we will see how that all pans out. The AFC South should be a very top-heavy division this year with the ready to win Colts and Titans up top with the rebuilding Texans and the Jaguars at the low bottom. DeShawn Watson is certainly the biggest question mark in this division. The AFC South will have their work cut out for them this year having to play the NFC West and the AFC East.

1. Tennessee Titans – Vegas Win Total – 9.5

Tennessee Titans Power Rating: 1.25

Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Kansas City, @ Pittsburgh, New Orleans

Key losses: TE Jonnu Smith, CB Adoree Jackson, WR Corey Davis, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DT DaQuon Jones, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Desmond King

Key additions: OLB Bud Dupree, WR Julio Jones, DE Denico Autrey, CB Janoris Jenkins, RT Kendell Lamb, CB Kevin Johnson

Key Draft Picks: CB Caleb Farley, OT Dillon Radunz, LB Montey Rice

Summary: The Titans beefed up their pass rush adding Bud Dupree and Denico Autry but they did lose some guys like Jadeveon Clowney and DaQuon Jones. This team at least was able to take on that large contract for Julio Jones and I think that they paid up the nose for him. Julio obviously should be an upgrade over Corey Davis as long as he stays healthy, but that doesn’t make up for Tennessee losing their tight end in Jonnu Smith. Tennessee’s Pythagorean win total was much lower at 9.19 wins compared to their actual adjusted wins of 11.69. They basically over-acheived with respect to the amount of points they scored and had given up. As far as the draft, I wasn’t so sure what they were doing when they picked injury prone Caleb Farley so early. As a whole, I really didn’t like this team’s draft at all, and they also lost two good receivers in Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis to free agency and they were not replaced. I have to assume that the Titans will keep pounding the rock and setting up play action for AJ Brown and Julio, but my question is can they now take a step forward on offense after acquiring all of this talent? I have to think that they took a step backward in the offseason in general at least until they got Jones. The good news is that their at large games are against New Orleans who has a new QB and many new players, and Pittsburgh who might take a step back as well.

My Number: 9.34

Action: Lean over

2. Indianapolis Colts – Vegas Win total – 10 juiced to the under

Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: 4

Schedule – Medium – At large games vs Las Vegas, @ Baltimore, Tampa Bay

Key losses: LT Anthony Castonzo, DE Denico Autry, QB Jacoby Brissett, ILB Anthony Walker, DE Justin Houston, S Malik Hooker, QB Phillip Rivers

Key additions: QB Carson Wentz, LT Eric Fisher, RT Sam Tevi, DT Isaac Rochell

Whom they drafted: Edge Kwity Paye, Edge Dayo Odeyingbo, QB Sam Ellinger

Summary: This was a very good Colts team last year but they had 1 major problem. Just like we said last year, their quarterback was good with stats and bad with finishing games. Phillip Rivers will probably go down as a Dan Marino type quarterback and now that he is gone, it remains to be seen if a motivated Carson Wentz is any different. The good news is that Wentz is now back with Frank Reich who was his offensive coordinator in Philadelphia the year that Carson had his greatest success. My issue is that this team really didn’t do well in the 2021 NFL draft. In saying that, I think the Colts will probably win the division due to just being loaded at Linebacker, having great skill positions, and having a great offensive line ranking number 2 in pro football focus. I am a little concerned with Anthony Castonzo retiring but they did at least sign some guys in free agency like Eric Fisher to cover that loss. The Colts were also pretty banged up last year, and if they can stay healthy, this will be a super bowl contender come playoff time.

My Number: 10.95

Action – Over 10

3. Houston Texans – Vegas win total is 4 juiced to the over

Houston Texans Power Rating: -6.25

Schedule – Hard – At large games vs LA Chargers, @ Cleveland, Carolina

Key losses: QB DeShawn Watson (maybe), DE JJ Watt, WR Will Fuller,

Key additions: OLB Kevin Pierre Lewis, CB Terrance Mitchell, OLB Jordan Jenkins, QB Tyrod Taylor, G Justin McCray, RB Phillip Lindsey and a bunch of mid-tier guys

Key Draft Picks: QB Davis Mills, WR Nico Collins and not much else

Summary: Just like I did the Green Bay Packers, I have to assume that DeShawn Watson is playing this year. That said, this team has some big troubles this year and their new coach David Culley has been set up to fail. The Texans started making dumb moves when Bill O’Brien was still there coaching when they traded the best wide receiver in football in D’Andre Hopkins to the Cardinals for a broken down running back in David Johnson. Now they let JJ Watt move on, (also to the Cardinals) this team will have to make up for not only his production, but also his leadership. If there is any silver lining, this Texans team did underachieve last year. Their adjusted Pythagorean win total was actually 7 games compared to their 4.25 adjusted wins but that doesn’t make you confident in the outlook of this team especially if DeShawn Watson isn’t playing or is traded this year meaning rookie Davis Mills or veteran Tyrod Taylor would get the start. Houston had a horrible draft class this year and they picked up a bunch of mediocre guys from the free agency bin. Lovie Smith will be the new defensive coordinator for this team but I don’t think that matters much. The Texans have the lowest win total in NFL football this year and I agree with it. Houston had one of the easiest football schedules last year and will have it much harder this year. I will not be betting the over and I actually lean under.

My Number: 3.13 wins

Action: No Play

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Vegas win total – 6.5 juiced to the under -140

Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: -8.75

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Denver, @ Cincinnati, Atlanta

Key losses: Nobody

Key additions: Coach Urban Meyer, CB Shaquille Griffin, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Roy Robinson Harris, RB Carlos Hyde and a bunch of medium dudes

Key Draft Picks: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Travis Etienne, CB Tyson Campbell, OT Walker Little

Summary: Jacksonville’s win total went from 4.5 last year to 6.5. That is quite optimistic due to having only one real win last year. The Jaguar’s Pythagorean adjusted total was 4.46 which tells a slightly more realistic story over their 1 win from last year. In Saying that, the optimism is pretty high for this team with a new coach who had a ton of success in college. My issue with Urban Meyer is that the offense that he ran in college does not translate well to the NFL, and that is part of the reason that his quarterbacks that he coached in college such as Chris Leak, Duane Haskins, Cardale Jones and Tim Tebow never translated to the NFL. I am not sure how much Urban Meyer is going to change in his rookie season. I do at least like his first draft pick in Trevor Lawrence who has a ton of upside and a very high floor. Another thing that I do not like is some of their free agent signings that came at a high price yet were not great players on their previous teams. Shaquille Griffin got burned a lot last year in Seattle, and Rayshawn Jenkins didn’t do all that much for the Chargers. I think that this team will score some points but they also will screw up enough for the other team to force turnovers. This team at least gets to play the Texans twice as well as some easier at large games vs some bottom feeding teams. I have to look under.

My Number: 5.26

Action – Play the under but wait for a better number

Nick Hub’s MLB Free 4% Premium Pick Video for Tuesday June 29th

By

Nick Hub

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June 29, 2021

brought to you by SportsPickHub.com

***I will be previewing EACH Power 5 conference leading up to Week 0 in College Football and giving my futures for each conference. Articles will be posted at theoddsbreaker.com. 1st up is the Big Ten and will be posted by Friday. Stay tuned!*****

Laying the Points with FarleyBets – Episode 7 – NBA Playoffs Picks and Predictions

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

June 29, 2021

The Bucks and Hawks scrambling for the ball during a playoff game.

Check out the latest edition of Laying the Points with FarleyBets! Chris talks about the NBA’s Eastern and Western Conference series, Khris Middleton, Trae Young, Paul George, the bets he likes tonight and tomorrow and his take on the series’ odds. Give it a listen!

Bucks vs. Hawks Game 4 Pick and Prediction – June 29, 2021

By

Chris R. Farley

-

June 29, 2021

Hawks vs. Bucks in the East Finals as players battle on the hardwood.

I was pretty shocked to see the result of last night’s Western Conference Finals game between the Clippers and Suns. Paul George had a great game and, as usual, when LAC shoots to their potential (54.8% from the field), they’re really difficult to beat. Now that series will return to the Staples Center and once again the Clippers have begun their comeback tour. Get the popcorn ready. Tonight, a pivotal game four between the final two Eastern Conference contenders awaits. Here are my picks!

Hawks First QTR +2 (-115), 1.5 units and
Hawks/Bucks under 219 (-110), 1 unit and
Lean Bucks -7 (-110):

First of all, let’s calm down about Khris Middleton. He was surgical in game three, no doubt, but Middleton as a basketball player is akin to a bag of Doritos. Sometimes you get the chips caked with flavoring and they blow you away– that’s the best. Most of the time there’s some flavoring but you’re really just searching for the heavily coated chips. And then other times, the Dorito looks like it completely missed the assembly line; it’s literally just a triangular potato. That’s the story of Khris Middleton. He wows us sometimes, he’s absolutely horrible sometimes, and most of the time he’s a pretty good #2 beside Giannis. I won’t be betting on it but I’d be careful to be too bullish on his point prop in this game. Though at 23.5 (the under is -120), it appears the books agree.

Secondly, if Trae Young’s injured foot means he’ll be significantly limited, this series is over. The Hawks are not the Suns– if Devin Booker or Chris Paul goes down, the Suns have plenty of talent and team cohesion to still win. They’ve proven as much. The Hawks need Trae Young to beat the Bucks. He’s their leader, their number one scorer, and he’s usually their main facilitator (Trae averaged 9.4 assists in the regular season and has led the Hawks in assists in 12/15 postseason games). Although he’s officially listed as “questionable,” I’m sure he’ll play. The designation only worries me because of what it means for Trae on the court. Typically when someone’s questionable it means the injury is serious enough that if he does play, he wouldn’t be the same version of himself. That doesn’t bode well for Atlanta. The line has grown to -7 in favor of Milwaukee, which tells me the books are anticipating a different Trae. Remember, the Hawks are at home and they desperately need this game, so for this number to climb that high– yikes. To me it’s a sell sign on the Hawks. I’ll lean the Bucks -7 but since I’m still unsure how bothered and limited Trae will be, I can’t put any units on that.

Despite all the drama with Trae’s injury, I still like them to win or keep it very close in the first quarter. We saw what happened in game three– the Hawks instantly overwhelmed the Bucks and went up by double digits. They ended up scoring 32 points and winning the 1st quarter by a 5 point margin. It’s clear that Milwaukee thinks they’re the superior team here and they’re probably right. Unfortunately they tend to fall asleep at the wheel because of that notion, so another slow start wouldn’t shock me. While I’m not sure the Hawks will have as strong of a first 12 minutes as they did Sunday, I think it’ll be solid enough to hit a +2 bet. The State Farm Arena affect is a real thing; that crowd will make a difference early.

Lastly, I expect this game to be more contentious than the other three and to me, that means the defenses have an advantage. Trae could be limited, Middleton won’t have another superstar performance, and game four already has a must-win feel. Remember game four between the Suns and Clippers? Remember the result (84-80)? This game will have the same war-time level of intensity and despite not showing it for huge chunks of the season, both of these teams are capable of playing excellent defense. I like the under, too.