Mini-mooning and winning as we grabbed a 2-0 day in the association last night! The Hawks stepped up and brought the fight after a slow start and the Clippers showed out again like we predicted. More mini-moon relaxing and more picks for Tuesday!
Nets +5 (-110), 1.5 units and Bucks/Nets 1Q over 54 (-115), 2 units: There’s no way I can’t take the Nets at +5 here and obviously a big part of that is Kevin Durant. This is a big moment for arguably the best offensive player in the NBA right now as he’ll have to hold up his team with Kyrie nursing a new ankle injury and James Harden ruled out for game five. We’re so adapted to Durant being a part of these mega-teams that we don’t get the chance to see if he can win as the lone superstar. Expect the former MVP to play aggressive and facilitate the ball to his supporting cast when he gets the clamp down treatment from PJ Tucker and double teams. His point prop (34.5) is a little too high for me but it could be a sneaky smart play to look at his teammates’ lines– he’ll need them to provide plenty of offense if they’re going to win.
The Bucks have a new spring in their step after some stifling defense and fantastic team basketball in two games at Milwaukee. While that’s all fine and good and it caught us all by surprise (if you try to tell me you knew this series would be tied at 2-2 I’d have to see some verifiable data to support that claim), don’t expect game five to have the same outlook. The pace changes at the Barclays Center and in the first two games the Nets were off to the races right after tipoff, scoring 30 in game one and 36 in game two in the first quarters of play. Expect Durant and company to set the tone and get in a rhythm behind their home crowd. A first quarter of only 54 is way too big of an adjustment after the last two games and I’m happy to take advantage.
And let’s not downplay the home-court effect either. We’ve seen the energy completely change in this series and even without 2 of the Nets’ big 3, this is a talented team with a player capable of taking over the entire game. With a Brooklyn crowd behind Durant and Nash scheming to create more production without Kyrie and Harden, I don’t see the Bucks easily gaining a 2 possession win here. For me, the value lies with the Nets.
We’ll were down to four teams, and like my myself, most people did not predict these to be the remaining teams. Last night we saw the New York Islanders steal Game 1 by a score of 2-1 with a closing line of +180. These 2021 NHL Playoffs have been crazy but I’m sure the surprises aren’t over yet.
Montreal Canadians (+215) @ Vegas Golden Knights (-255)
The Canadians are certainly the Cinderella story of the playoffs after coming back from a 3-1 Series deficit to defeat Toronto in Round 1. Then in Round 2, they sweep the Jets who just completed their own sweep over Edmonton in Round 1. The Vegas Golden Knights come into this Game and Series as heavy favorites after taking down the President Trophy Winners Colorado Avalanche.
For Game 1, the value is on the Canadians for sure given the line suggests that they would win this game roughly 30%. They have proven that they can beat anyone in these playoffs and are being completely undervalued in Game 1. However, that’s not the play tonight. Montreal is coming into Vegas and playing in front of a packed Arena for the first time this season. Vegas has one of the best atmospheres for hockey, and that place will be going crazy. The Canadians have anchored their playoff run around their defense which is headlined by their netminder Carey Price. Price comes into the playoffs with the third best GSAx of +8.6. Opposite of Price, Vegas will start Marc-Andre Fleury, who is right behind price in the rankings with a +4.7 GSAx. For tonight, I’m looking at the total which is set at 5.5 and juiced to the under. The Golden Knights have a xGA of 1.86 while the Canadians have an xGA of 2.26. The Golden Knights have an xGF of 2.24 while the Habs are right behind them with an 2.26 xGF. With the total set at 5.5, I think there’s some value on that line. These are two physical teams than rely on their defensive ability to win games which should be on display tonight.
It’s good to be back! I’m a married man and I’m on my mini-moon right now but if you thought there was ANY CHANCE I wouldn’t be writing a post today, you’re mistaken my friend! Here are my best bets for tonight in the NBA!
Hawks +3 (-110), 1.5 units: The Hawks are resilient and more importantly, they’re 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against the 76ers. Joel Embiid might not be 100% tonight, either. This smells like a big chance at a bounce-back spot for Atlanta so I have to take the points. I think this series could very well end in a 4-2 situation in the 76ers’ favor but the Hawks are more than good enough to earn one more W. I’ll take the Hawks at home tonight.
Clippers -5 (-105), 2 units: Game three of this series showed us the same old story from LAC– when they’re off they can look really off but when they’re good, shit, they’re scary good. The Clippers were dominant and extremely efficient in game three at home and I can’t justify a reason why they wouldn’t be again. This feels like a 7-game series where the victors may always lie at their respective home arenas. I expect another exceptional performance from Kawhi and Paul tonight and another win by margin.
The NFC East: This division was clearly the worst division in football last year with Washington going from worst to first needing only 7 total wins to make the playoffs. Riverboat Ron was the main reason behind Washington’s success, but this team is still fishing for a good long term quarterback. The NFC East plays the AFC West and the NFC South. The schedules as a whole are ranked around medium, because it is top and bottom heavy with what these NFC East teams will be facing. I have to imagine that this division should improve some but I still have to say that the teams that will be playing against them will be favored more often than not.
1. Washington – Vegas Win total is 8.5
Washington’s Power Rating: -1.5
Schedule – Medium Hard – At large vs Seattle, @ Green Bay and @ Buffalo
Key losses: CB Ronald Darby, LB Kevin Pierre-Lewis, DE Ryan Kerrigan
Key additions: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, OT Charles Leno, CB William Jackson, WR Curtis Samuel, CB Darryl Roberts
Key draft picks: LB Jamin Davis, OT Samuel Cosmi, CB Benjamin ST. Juste, WR Dyami Brown
Summary: Forget honeymoon year for Riverboat Ron, this team made the playoffs in the worst division in football getting 7 total wins. Now I did say that the Bears were the worst team to make the playoffs last year, and if that’s true, then Washington wasn’t far behind. Washington’s defense was fantastic last year and their offense was putrid to say it kindly. Dwayne Haskins turned out to be a massive bust and Alex Smith, even as the greatest story in the NFL last year, wasn’t the QB that he was before the massive leg injury. I believe that this team has a nice upgrade here with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB but I also think that their offensive line woes continue unless Samuel Cosmi proves his critics wrong about his blocking techniques. Washington had a great Pythagorean adjusted win total last year at 8.9 compared to their actual adjusted wins of 7.44. They will have a very hard schedule compared to the Eagles and the Cowboys which is somewhat concerning yet they have gained some of my trust. I awarded them for their free agency moves and upgrade at quarterback but that only brings me to 8.2 wins. If I had to pick a team to win this division, it would be this team.
My number: 8.2
Action – lean under
2. New York Giants – Vegas Win total is 7 juiced to the over at -140
NY Giants Power Rating: -2.5
Schedule – Medium Hard – At large vs LA Rams, @ Chicago, @ Miami
Key losses: G Kevin Zietler, DT Dalvin Thomlinson, OT Camron Fleming, LB Kyler Fackrell
Key additions: WR Kenny Golliday, CB Adorree Jackson, TE Kyle Rudolph, RB Devontae Booker, DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, WR John Ross, QB Mike Glennon
Summary: The Giants moved back in the draft to get another first rounder from the Chicago Bears for the 2022 season. Now that won’t help them as much this season but they did make some noise in free agency. I like the Wide Receiver additions this year and I really like the Edge rusher in Azeez Ojulari being drafted in the 2nd round. My issue for this team is the Offensive line. The Giants lost a few guys in the trenches and really didn’t do a lot to replace them. That is concerning to me. Saquon Barkley should be back after that nasty knee injury but my question remains if he will remain healthy, and to be quite honest, I do not like the guys that they have under him. This is the year that Daniel Jones has to put up numbers and he does have the weapons to do so. The Giants lost some close games last year vs some very good teams. If they can stay healthy this year, I think they might be a good sleeper pick to win the division at the +500 that we see advertised.
My Number: 6.76 wins
Action – No Play
3. Dallas Cowboys – Vegas win total 9.5 juiced to the under -140
Dallas Power Rating: -3.75
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games vs Arizona, @ Minnesota, @ New England
Key losses: LB Sean Lee, CB Chidobe Awuzie, QB Andy Dalton, T Cameron Irving, S Xavier Woods
Key additions: S Keanu Neal, OLB Tarrell Basham, and a bunch of lower grade guys
Whom they drafted: LB Micah Parsons, CB Kelvin Joseph, LB Jabril Cox, DE Osa Odighizuwa, DE Chauncey Gholston
Summary: It certainly did not feel like a honeymoon year last year with coach Mike McCarthy, and part of that reason for that, was that the Cowboys were expected to win the division. Instead, they had one of the worst defenses that they have ever had in Cowboy history enabling them to only 6 total wins last year. I think that the Dak Prescott injury early in the season speaks for itself, but in my honest opinion, I didn’t think that Dak would have been good enough to bring this team in to the playoffs anyways. In saying that, I actually like the Cowboys draft this year. It’s a first time that I could say that in quite some time. If these picks pan out, I expect to see an improved defense at some point in the season. Now the win total here at 9.5 seems to be a very optimistic one and I am not a believer in their coach or their quarterback. Dak is much too inconsistent for me to think that he is worth anywhere near the 160 million dollar contract that he just signed. My season win number is more closer to 8 and will be taking the under.
My Number: 7.61
Action: Under 9.5 wins
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Vegas win total 6.5 juiced to the over -140
Philadelphia Power rating: -3.75
Schedule – Easy – At large games vs San Francisco, @ Detroit and @ NY Jets
Key losses: QB Carson Wentz, S Jaelin Mills, WR Deshawn Jackson, S Johnathan Ford, DT Malik Jackson, DE Vinny Curry, Coach Doug Peterson, OT Jason Peters
Key additions: Coach Nick Sirianni, FS Anthony Harris, QB Joe Flacco, OLB Eric Wilson, DE Ryan Karrigan
Whom they drafted: WR Devonta Smith, G Landon Dickerson, DL Milton Williams, and a bunch of dudes
Summary: It’s hard to believe that this team won the super bowl around 3 years ago. Looking at them now, you wouldn’t be able to recognize many players or even the coaches from that team. We should probably start with Doug Peterson. It’s really hard for me to know how good of a head coach he was. Some people say it was his offensive coordinator Frank Reich who was the true brains behind the Eagles 2017 season and I tend to agree. New coach Nick Sirianni has a lot of work to do and I am not 100% sure that he is ready for this level. Jalen Hurts will be the quarterback of this Eagles team and he will be playing behind an aging offensive line trying to run a system similar to what we saw with the Colts last year. I kinda feel that this Eagles team will be a poor mans Baltimore Ravens. I certainly have my reservations about Jalen Hurts but the kid is a winner and will make some plays this year that might shock you.
This should be an interesting game. The sentiment is quite low on the Rockies on the road and it should be with this team 5-25. But looking at this line, I feel that was factored into the fact that Cincinnati’s Bullpen ranks dead last in FIP at 4.92 and the Rockies are slightly better at 4.82. Lots of variance there. Why are we not looking at the first 5 innings? Marquez is Colorado’s best pitcher at 3.57 FIP but his away numbers are 4.72. Miley’s FIP is 2.98 in general and 3.75 at Great American Ballpark. The only nod I can give the Rockies is that they are middle of the road when it comes to hitting lefties at 99 wRC+ and I wonder if that’s the reason the 1st 5 is so cheap. I don’t trust either bullpen today and the high total says that, but I will go with the home team here for an even better price on the first 5 innings.
I am pretty interested in this fight. Drew Dobber is 23-10 at 32 years old. He a borderline tier 2/3 fighter who never can beat top competition. Brad Riddell at 29 years old is 9-1 and is an up and coming fighter who has a shot to move up in this lightweight class. Statically, Riddell has a slight edge in every fight category but part of that reason was due to Dober’s number of fights and overall competition being higher. These fighters are probably pretty even as of today but the thing that I am keying in on this fight is upside. One fighter has a shot, the other is receiving a paycheck. Dobber hasn’t submitted anyone since 2014. Riddell has a good young Jaw and his only loss was by submission. I think that the price of this fight should be even at -110. Gonna take the slight dog for a play.
Riddell +125 – 1.5 stars
Darren Steward vs Eryk Anders -148
Ok, why is Eryk Anders a favorite here against a well acclaimed fighter like Darren Stewart? Well, you don’t have to go back far for this one. These 2 fighters fought back on March 13th this year and Anders was, pardon my pun, kicking the shit out of Stewart until Stewart went down to a knee and Anders due to pure adrenaline hit him with an Illegal knee allowing Stewart to play possum (smart move) and get a no decision. We had to take our + money tickets and use them as a tissue before cashing it back. I’m not bitter at all…. Anyways I think that Stewart will be intimidated this fight and Anders knows that he is the better fighter. On paper, both of these fighters look pretty equal with the slight edge to Anders for his stand up and the slight edge to Stewart for his ground game. -150 says there is a 60% chance that Anders wins. I think it is a little higher than that but I will at least admit that I can’t quantify it and I am going by what I watched over the past few years.
Eryk Anders -148 – 2 stars
Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori +220
If you want our play for this fight please listen to Podcast 41-21. The play is towards the end. Best of luck everyone!
This should be an interesting Lefty vs Lefty Matchup. Keegan Akin will be on the mound for Baltimore. He doesn’t have a ton of MLB experience but he has done well this year over 20 innings with a 3.25 FIP. His numbers were similar in 2020. Ryan Yarbrough is pitching for the Rays with a decent 4.29 FIP but more experience than Akin. Baltimore has been a sneaky team this year and it’s because they are better than their record of 22-39 yet they have as of late shown some positive regression signs being that they are 16th in wRC+ and their Bullpen ranks 19th in FIP. The Ray’s are 11th in wRC+ and 7th in bullpen FIP but the reason that I like the Orioles here is that they are very good at hitting lefties and they are plus money. Baltimore ranks 2nd in wRC+ against left handed batters. Combine that with the potential upside of the pitching with Akin, I will take the dog.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil flies solo to discuss some NFL divisional previews as well as some season win total leans and plays! First, Kiev talks about the college football playoff expansion proposals. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? How might it help college football? Next, Kiev talks about the AFC North & AFC South divisions with win totals, power ratings and previews. Which players are coming and going? Who was drafted? Which teams might have some value? Finally, we get into UFC 263 with a few plays.
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Ok, here is one where I like the price of the favorite. Oakland has Frankie Montas out there with a mediocre 4.24 FIP but a nice 9.19 Ks per 9 innings against Kansas City’s Mike Minor who has a similar 4.22 FIP and a very nice 9.89 Ks per 9 innings. The wind is blowing out here and I do expect some points and that is why I like Oakland here. Mike Minor is a lefty and Oakland ranks 5th in wRC+ against lefties and 5th in wRC+ in general. Kansas City ranks 21st in wRC+ which won’t bode well here on the road. Oakland’s Bullpen is also better ranking 7th in FIP at 3.68 compared to 19th for Kansas City at 4.26. I am surprised that this price is this low here and would think that it should be around -170. Anyways, how could you bet against a pitcher named Frankie? I’ll take the A’s to win.
