This will be a super quick article (it’s my wedding weekend and stepping away for a second is TOUGH) but I can’t not put out an article today about these two games. Here are my picks for the Thursday slate of NBA action:
Nets alt line -2 (+155), 1.5 units: Nothing in the first two games made me think that the Bucks can hang with the Nets in this series. Up until this matchup, Giannis and his Bucks’ teammates looked like they were ready to take the playoffs by storm. But in the first 2 contests they’ve looked completely deflated. Middleton can’t make a shot, Giannis can’t make a free throw, and Milwaukee looks completely intimidated by Brooklyn. Look for another big game from Durant on the road; he won’t mind all the boos. I like a big game from him (check out props) and I lean to the over, too. Nets might sweep this series.
Clippers/Jazz under 222.5 (-110), 1.5 units: We’ll try this again. Yes indeed, stars light up this series with their prowess and fame but these two teams have fantastic defenses and I see that being the story tonight. LAC knows they have to slow down Donovan Mitchell if they have a shot at winning this series and while Kawhi had a great game one, expect the Jazz to adjust and make life harder for “the Claw.” Games twos are arguably more importantly than the first meeting and I can see this having that pressure-filled “must win” feel. In what should be a back and forth battle, I like it to fly under.
The Memorial Tournament certainly had it’s up’s and down’s. Jon Rahm was pulled off the course 6 strokes going into Sunday after testing positive for COVID-19. However, Sunday was almost more entertaining because of it, as C. Morikawa and P. Cantlay ended 72 holes tied forcing a playoff. P. Cantlay ended up winning the playoff cashing in at 22-1 for us. We’re now up a total of 7.38 Units in the past three tournaments.
This week was supposed to be the return of the RBC Canadian Open. However, due to the ongoing COVID restrictions in Canada, the tournament is cancelled for the second year in a row. In place of the RBC Canadian Open, the PGA created the Palmetto Championship at Congaree Golf Club. This tournament is challenging for handicappers as this course has never hosted a competitive tournament of any kind. It will be interesting to see how the PGA sets up the course this week, as it can play up to 7,700 yards. Based on previous examples, the PGA tends to take a conservative approach when going to a new course for a tournament. This weeks field is pretty week as expected since next week we have the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. It’s a small card this week due to the lack of data and since next week is a major tournament. Let’s take a look at this unique tournament and try to find some value.
Tournament Information:
Dates: June 10, 2021- June 13, 2021
Location: Ridgeland, South Carolina, USA
Course: Congaree Golf Club
Par: 71
Length: 7,655 yards
Field/ Cut: 156 Players / Top 65 & Ties Make the Cut
Greens: Bermuda
Fairways: Bermuda
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Sand Saves Gained
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Putting
Picks (Outright):
Tyrell Hatton (+1,400)
Risk: 0.52 to win 7.28
11th in SG: Approach
29th in SG: Off the Tee
10th in Sand Save %
Harold Varner III (+4,000)
Risk: 0.18 to win 7.2
32nd in SG: Around the Green
42nd in SG: Approach
52nd in Driving Distance
T56th in SG: Off the Tee
Patton Kizzire (+4,500)
Risk: 0.16 to win 7.2
12th in SG: Putting
51st in SG: Approach
T63rd in Driving Distance
Finished 3rd at Byron Nelson & Charles Schwab
Brandt Snedeker (+5,500)
Risk: 0.14 to win 7.7 Units
39th in SG: Putting
51st in SG: Around the Green
Finished in the Top 20 last 3 out of 4 tournaments
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.0 Unit
Picks (First Round Leader):
Sungjae Im (+3,300)
Risk 0.30 to win 9.90
Patton Kizzire (+5,000)
Risk 0.20 to win 10.0
Total Risk on First Round Leader: 0.50 Units
Picks (Matchups):
Brooks Koepka (+105) over Dustin Johnson
Risk 0.50 to win 0.525
Ben Martin (+110) over C.T. Pan
Risk: 0.50 to win 0.55
Total Risk on Matchups: 1.0 Unit
Total Risk on the Palmetto Championship: 2.50 Units
We just have one game today, as the New York Islanders look to close out the Boston Bruins at home. The Islanders took Game 5 by a score of 5-4 after being outshot by the Bruins 44 to 19. The main difference in this game was the Islanders ability to capitalize on the powerplay as they went 3-4. The Bruins also led in expected goals that game with 3.72, to the Isles 2.45. All three (Varlamov, Rask, Swayman) goalies in this game struggled, as they all finished with negative goals above expected. Lets check out this Game 6 matchup and see if we can find any value.
Boston Bruins (-135) @ New York Islanders (+115)
Game 6 takes place on Long Island where the home team will stick with the same lineup that got the job done in Game 5. This means that Semyon Varlamov will start in net for home team. While the Boston Bruins are expected to start Tuukka Rask. Tuukka was replaced in the third period for the rookie, Jeremy Swayman. Swayman allowed an early goal that would eventually be the game winner but settled in nicely after that. However, it makes sense that they’re going with Rask here in an elimination game based off of experience. If Rask is injured as the Bruins had said, then Swayman would be making his first career NHL playoff start tonight.
Looking at this game, the total has been set at 5.0 for every game in this series. That trend continues tonight, as the total is juiced to the Over since it’s 3-1-1 in this series. The Boston Bruins pride themselves on a defensive style game that should be on display tonight. Rask struggled in Game 5 but I don’t expect that to be the case tonight. We should have a low scoring matchup tonight, as the Bruins look to stay alive and force a Game 7.
The NFC South has an easier road or set of schedules than they did last year. This division has to play the NFC East which is good for them being that the NFC East was so bad last year, and the AFC East which also could be good unless the Jets and Patriots take a huge step forward. Atlanta has a new coach in Arthur smith who was offensive coordinator for the Titans. Tampa Bay is coming off of their Super Bowl win while the Saints will have some new faces in 2021. This might be the most interesting division in football with Tom Brady looking to repeat while the Saints are not sure who will be their quarterback for the future.
1. New Orleans Saints – Vegas Win Total 9 juiced to the over
New Orleans Power Rating: 0
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large games vs Green Bay, @ Seattle and @ Tennessee
Key Losses: QB Drew Breese, DE Trey Hendrickson, LB Kwon Alexander, CB Janoris Jenkins, DT Sheldon Rankins, WR Emanual Sanders, TE Jared Cook and a bunch of dudes
Key additions: TE Nick Vannet and a few others
Key draft picks: DE Peyton Turner, QB Ian Book, LB Pete Werner
Summary: Yikes! This team lost the most players out of any decent to great team from last season. Starting out with Drew Breese who has been their leader for 20 years, this loss will be substantial. Not only that, the Saints have no money and had to shed a ton of weight this year. The only good news is that they have potentially the easiest at large schedule for a number 1 team getting the Packers who may or may not have Rogers, the Titans who are very venerable, and Seattle who has some serious defensive issues. Still, I do not see how this team will recover unless Jameis Winston somehow quits throwing interceptions and becomes the quarterback prospect that many of us thought he could be. Taysom Hill is choice number 2 and he will only be a dink and dunk type of quarterback and defenses will soon shut that down. My bold prediction is that Ian Book takes the team over at some point in this season. This team is looking at the under in my opinion for their season win total but I wouldn’t be completely shocked I suppose if Sean Payton pulls some wins out of his ass this year.
My number is: 7.9 wins
Action: Under 9 wins
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 11.5 juiced to the over (-130)
Tampa Bay Power Rating: 7
Schedule: – Medium Easy – At large games vs the Bears @ Indianapolis and @ The Rams
Key losses: OT Joe Haeg and that’s about it.
Key additions: RB Giovani Bernard and that’s about it
Key draft picks: Edge Joe Tyron, QB Kyle Trask, LB KJ Britt, LB Robert Hainsey
Summary: Last year I wrote that Tom Brady was the biggest thing that has every happened to Tampa. Was I wrong? This team didn’t lose anybody and will be poised for a chance at winning the Super Bowl in 2022. The crazy thing for me is that this team had the hardest schedule on paper and they were able to retain all of their players after winning the super bowl! That never really happens. Either way, with the talent that this team retained, I can see them winning plenty of games this year if they want to and Tom Brady did mention that he would like to go through a season undefeated. The thing that worries me some is that I don’t even know if this team really cares about the regular season all that much if/when they get that first loss. I honestly think that the Bucs might be just fine with limping into the playoffs where Brady then turns himself into a werewolf and beats the crap out of all of his competition. I also worry about the super bowl let down so I can’t make this play.
My Number is: 13.25
Action: Lean over
3. Carolina Panthers – Win total is 7.5 juiced to the under (-130)
Carolina Power Rating: -1.25
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs Minnesota, @ Arizona, @ Houston
Key losses: WR Curtis Samuel, RB Mike Davis, DE Stephon Weatherly
Key additions: QB Sam Darnold, G Pat Elflain, T Cameron Erving, DE Morgan Fox, LB Haasan Reddick, CB AJ Bouye, ILB Denzel Perryman, and more
Key draft picks: CB Jaycee Horn, WR Terrance Marshall, OT Brady Christianson, TE Tommy Tremble, RB Chuba Hubbard
Summary: It’s the second year for Matt Rhule and the Carolina Panthers and wow did this team make a splash in the offseason. The most obvious play was getting Sam Darnold in a trade with the Jets who offensive coordinator Joe Brady must have been high on. It looks like the Teddy Bridgewater experiment didn’t last long did it? Carolina has spent so much money that I have to think that this team has improved from their 5 win season last year. Carolina’s Pythagorean win total was closer to a 7 last year and we need to factor that in. This season all depends on Sam Darnold and I think that if any coach can get this kid’s confidence back, it is Matt Rhule. I am excited to see what this team has in the tank and let’s hope that Christian McCaffery remains healthy this season.
My Number: 8.69
Action: Find a 7 and play the over
4. Atlanta Falcons – Win total is 7.5 juiced to the over (-140)
Atlanta’s Power Rating: -2.75
Schedule: Medium – At large vs San Francisco, @ Detroit and @ Jacksonville
Key losses: Coach Dan Quinn, RB Todd Gurley, C Alex Mack, SS Keanu Neil, G Justin McCray, DE Charles Harris, FS Ricardo Allen, (WR Julio Jones is possible)
Key additions: Coach Arthur Smith, RB Mike Davis, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, S Ed Harris, QB AJ McCarron, OLB Barkevious Mingo
Key draft picks: TE Kyle Pitts, S Richie Grant, OT Jaylen Mayfield and a bunch of hmmmm.
Summary: Our Atlanta season win total under 7.5 for plus money hit last year with ease being that the dirty birds only won 4 games. On the other hand, Atlanta might have been the least fortunate team of the 2020 season being that their adjusted wins were 4.25 (adjusted for a 17 game season) while their adjusted Pythagorean win total was a monster 7.92. I thought that I would be betting the Falcons just because of that until I saw the actual line at 7.5 juiced to the over and saw what this team didn’t do in the draft and free agency. The Falcons obviously drafted what many call the best player in the draft in tight end Kyle Pitts but what is the difference in adding another pass catcher when you were loaded with them anyways and you really didn’t do anything to fix your defense. Now that Julio Jones has been traded, isn’t this just another robbing Peter to pay Paul situation? I think Atlanta will try and run the ball a lot more than they have in the past with the former Titans offensive coordinator now Coach in Arthur Smith, however, I do not understand how Mike Davis is going to replace a guy like Todd Gurley. The RBs are relatively weak on this team. The move is not an upgrade. This will be a honeymoon year for new coach Arthur Smith so I and I do not expect much out of this team minus some big offense in domes and some terrible defense in general.
Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (55) pumps his fist after striking out Cleveland Indians' Yu Chang (2) to end the sixth inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, April, 14, 2021, in Chicago. (AP Photo/David Banks)
San Francisco -135 vs Texas +120 O/U 8
This should be a great game today with a very hot Giants team who just beat the Cubs 3 out of 4 games vs a Texas team who is 2nd worst in the AL. Alex wood is pitching for the Giants with a nice 3.69 FIP. Texas has Jordan Lyles out on the mound today with a poor 4.8 FIP. San Francisco ranks 7th in wRC+ while Texas ranks 24th. Why is this number so low for San Francisco? Texas is at home and they have the better bullpen FIP at 3.9 compared to the Giant’s 4.46 but that should not make up for the difference in pitching. I think this number should be around -170 for San Fran today.
San Francisco -135 – 2 stars
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox -141 O/U 8
Here is another game that I scratch my head on. I thought the books caught up to the White Sox vs Lefties. Now Robbie Ray is pitching for the Blue Jays and he is a lefty who has a 4.73 FIP against another lefty in Carlos Rodon who has a massive 2.69 FIP. The White Sox’s Bullpen ranks 3rd in FIP while the Blue Jay’s cave ranks 15th. Both teams are great at hitting with the Blue Jays 3rd in wRC+ to the White Sox ranking 2nd but the Sox are still number 1 in hitting vs lefties while the Blue Jays are at 11th. This is another poorly priced game and I will roll with the Sox.
The Bucks are doing this again, huh? That was an embarrassing loss last night to Brooklyn and if Milwaukee has ANY chance at winning this series, someone (Giannis) needs to light a fire under their collective and fast. That was so, so bad. Moving onward and upward, it’s Tuesday and we have a few plays we like!
76ers -5.5 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean, Hawks/76ers under 224.5 (-110): Trae Young, huh? Trae Trae Trae. We might be witnessing the next big star in the NBA and I’m okay with it being him. I’ll be honest– I wasn’t entirely aware that Trae Young had the kind of moxie he’s shown in the playoffs but I’m ALL ABOUT IT. That kind of attitude and energy is what good leaders are unafraid to bring night in and night out and so far, that’s exactly what Trae has done. He’s also shown off his elite ability. Averaging 28.5 ppg in the postseason, Trae has given the production and the juice Atlanta has needed to continue shocking the basketball world. And would I be surprised if the Hawks win again tonight? No, I would not.
But I don’t think they will. What we saw at the end Sunday’s first game will bleed into tonight and that should bode well for Philadelphia. The Hawks got off to a fast start in game one, which clearly caught Philly by surprise, but Atlanta was out-played in the second half. Philly clamped down on defense and was significantly more productive on offense, outscoring the Hawks 70-54 in the final 2 quarters. I still can’t fathom how they caused that many turnovers late in the 4th quarter but that was an indication that the Sixers were, officially, finally taking the Hawks seriously. Make no mistake about it– the Sixers are as good (if not better) on defense than they are on offense and although it may not mean they can completely limit Trae Young, they can make life hell for other Hawks’ skill players. I think that’s the difference tonight.
I’ll lean under since I think it’s the Philly defense that makes the biggest impact. My play is on the Sixers to get a win by margin. They’ve worked too hard and have been too consistently dominant all year to let another unexpected let-down happen in game two, especially at home. All systems go for Philly.
Jazz -3 (-115), 2 units: and Clippers/Jazz under 220.5 (-110), 1 unit: Game one of this Western Conference series kicks off tonight and I can’t wait for it! Can the Clippers’ stars keep bringing the heat or will the team with the NBA’s best overall record stay the course and out-class their foe? It’ll be a good series to follow but for my money, I’m on Utah Tuesday night.
Yes it’s true– the Jazz are one of the best ATS teams in the association and they’re a freakish 31-5 at home this season, but I like them even more because of the spot. While the Jazz were kicking back and relaxing after a 4-1 series win over Memphis, the Clippers were battling with Luka and the Mavericks and barely making it to round two. Kawhi and Paul George (especially the former) had a fantastic 2-game finish in round one and will look to bring the same intensity tonight. The issue is: we haven’t seen consistency from the Clippers, have we? If we did see the same intensity and calibrated focus every night, the Clippers may never lose a game. They’re that good on paper. Their issue is leadership and chemistry, two things that are absolutely not an issue for Utah.
The Jazz have it all– a deep roster, skilled players on both offense and defense, an adaptive, sharp coach, and true leadership. Donovan Mitchell isn’t shy to yell at other players and Utah’s communication on the hardwood is constant. It’s what makes them so fluid and fun to watch. The Clippers? Meh. When LAC runs into any sort of adversity, we’ve seen them buckle. Now they’re fresh off a huge game seven win, with all the pomp and circumstance and feelings of closure that come with it, and they have to turn around 2 days later and face the #1 seed in the West. Yikes.
Betting against LAC can be very profitable because the books always line them as one of the best teams in the NBA. Any other opponent would be more than just a 3 point dog tonight but the Clippers are graded as a true championship contender. I don’t disagree with that in general, they are a contender, but in spots like this we can make money off them and do it consistently. While Kawhi was brilliant at the end of his last series, I don’t think he can hold up his team the same way he did against the Mavs. The Jazz are going to bring a significantly better defensive effort (Utah is #3 in defensive efficiency, Dallas was 17th and probably should have been graded lower) than LAC experienced in the first round and they have the perimeter shooting ability to keep pace with the Clippers. Oh yeah– and they also have one of the best defenders in basketball in Rudy Gobert– good luck getting to the rim.
The Clippers and Jazz are both in the bottom half of the NBA in average pace this season and they both have exceptional defenses. I like unders in this series, starting tonight, and I love the Jazz in game one.
We have a great show for you today! Farley’s force is here! Our very own Chris Farley is back to discuss some NBA Playoffs with some predictions and plays. First, Kiev gives out a college football season win total that he thinks will have a good chance to cash. Next, Chris comes on and the guys recap some of the NBA playoffs first round action followed by some series prices. Do the Bucks have a shot to win it down 2-0? What do we make of the Jazz and the Clippers? Are the Suns for real? Then, Chris gets into the games for Tuesday – Thursday night games with some info and plays!
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