Sadly I had my first losing day in a long time Sunday (I’m not sure how long it’s been, at least 2 weeks) when I went 0-2 betting on the Sixers to win and the Mavs to cover. I was surprised by those results but in this industry you can’t hang onto it for too long. It surely makes it easier to forget knowing we’re 30-18 betting the NBA over the last 2 weeks. Onto our Monday picks!
Bucks win (-105), 1.5 units and Bucks/Nets 1Q over 58.5 (-110), 2 units: The first quarter line has crept up to 59.5 but I still like it there, too. My analysis of a first quarter total bet is simple– teams usually play to their strengths in the first 12 minutes of NBA competition. Adrenaline is flowing, they’re anxious and excited to perform, and these days that usually means a showcase of offensive prowess. Of course that’s especially true with these two juggernauts. After the first period of play adjustments are made and in the playoffs, that usually means more contested shots and better defensive schemes in the following quarters. It also means a slower pace. We took advantage of that in game one of this series. The Bucks and Nets started off blazing hot, scoring 62 points in the first quarter. The second quarter had the same result. Then at least one team started to slow down– Milwaukee only scored 23 points in the 3rd and 4th quarters (46 total) as the Nets clamped down and made life difficult for Giannis and his teammates. That’s why I like earlier quarters for betting on the over in the postseason– it has less nuance.
As far as the side goes, the Bucks are now a favorite at most books and I agree with the move. Typically I’m not a big Milwaukee guy and I tend to think that eventually, they’ll fold. They’ve shown us that side to them before and it reared its ugly head again in game one. The Bucks were only 11-19 from the free throw line, an astoundingly bad 6-30 from beyond the arc (20%), and players like Khris Middleton (6-23), Jrue Holiday (7-19) and others had really poor outings. Despite my lack of belief in Milwaukee to win the NBA Finals, I was very high on them entering this series. They’re playing with an aggression and moxie that we haven’t seen before; it appears the #3 seed did them good.
Do I think the Bucks will win this series? I’m not sure. But they’re good enough and fired up enough to beat the Nets tonight. Going down 0-2 to Brooklyn is the last thing the Bucks want (or need) and we have to expect some positive regression from Giannis’ supporting cast tonight. If the Greek-freak isn’t alone like he was Saturday, I think the Bucks will catch the home team by surprise and tie up the series before it heads to Milwaukee.
Nuggets/Suns over 220 (-110), 1.5 units: I was able to snag this line before it went up even higher. I won’t take a side in game one, I want to observe these two teams and how they look against each other in postseason play, but one play I do really like is taking the over. At least on paper, there are significant mismatches that favor both offenses here.
DeAndre Ayton is long and young and athletic and should be able to find ways to work around Nikola Jokic. Michael Porter Jr., the 6’10” forward that’s been blossoming since Denver’s star guard Jamal Murray tore his ACL in April, will tower over Bridges and Crowder and should have ample opportunities at a clear shot. Nuggets’ guards Rivers and Campazzo are solid players but they don’t have the quickness or playmaking ability of Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Jokic is the leading MVP candidate, he’ll get his, and Aaron Gordon and Jae Crowder are dynamic big men that can post up or launch 3s without hesitation.
As I write this I wonder if I’m devaluing how good the Suns are on defense. Perhaps I am, but only because of what I’ve seen from Denver. Although we saw Phoenix impressively blockade the Lakers’ bigs, severely limiting their output all series, the Nuggets are not the Lakers. They’re more athletic, better shooters, and significantly more efficient. By comparison, Denver was rated 7th overall in offensive efficiency throughout the regular season. LAL was ranked 24th. In the postseason, the Nuggets are top 3 in offensive efficiency and they’ve scored at least 120 points in 4 out of their last 5 games.
In short, I’m not worried about Denver’s production and I’m even less worried about Phoenix. While the Nuggets are a decent defensive team, they didn’t win their series against Portland because of great defense. They won by setting the pace and by methodical, fluid team basketball, particularly on offense. Tonight they’ll attempt to stifle a Suns’ offense that the #1 defensive team in the NBA (LAL) couldn’t stop. Maybe I’m a pessimist by nature but I don’t see Denver having a ton of success in that area.
I lean to the Suns +5 at home but for an opening playoff game in a quarterfinals series, I’ll just stick with a play on the total soaring over. According to John Ryan Sports, the Suns are 11-4-1 (73%) OVER the posted total when facing an opponent that is scoring at or above the NBA average of 112.1 ppg this season. In three regular season games, the Nuggets/Suns totals went for 209, 256, and 232– an average well above the total for tonight. Gotta love having backup stats– it’s the over for me!
A nice 2-1 Saturday on the Bucks/Nets gives us a 30-16 record the last 2 weeks in NBA betting. Today we have a game 1 and a game 7 to attend to so let’s not waste any time. Here are my best bets and predictions for the Sunday slate!
76ers win (-165), 1.6 units: As we’ve seen in their previous series, the Atlanta Hawks are no team to ignore. Allowing only 1 win for the popular Knicks, the Hawks beat New York in 5 games, winning 2 of those contests at Madison Square Garden. Atlanta is a an all-around solid unit that rarely gets overwhelmed or out-performed. And when their opponent makes a ton of mistakes, the Hawks are usually there to appropriately hawk opportunities and steal a win. A top 10 team throughout the season in offensive efficiency, true shooting percentage and turnover ratio, the Hawks are a well-coached program and won’t be an easy round in the second round. They have leadership, a true star in Trae Young, and they play really well as a team. I can’t wait to see what they can do in this series.
All that being said, the 76ers are a huge uptick in class. While the Knicks were everyone’s darling Cinderella story and fan favorite because of their blue-collar mentality and team spirit, the 76ers are a legitimate championship contender. The Sixers boast, for our money, the most consistently stout defense in the East. Finishing 2nd in defensive efficiency and 6th in points allowed, Philly is big, long, and gifted on the defensive end. They’re significantly bigger and more athletic than what Atlanta experienced against New York. Simmons is a true shut down defender and the Sixers seem to play with an enhanced energy when they’re guarding the rim. And it’s not like they’re untalented on offense. With or without Embiid, Philadelphia is capable of out-classing 95% of the association in offensive talent. Personally I think Embiid will play, whispers seem to be favoring that news, but I think the 76ers still win without him. If he doesn’t play, look for player props on Clint Capela’s rebounds. The front court will be more shallow without the 76ers star and Capela is an absolute monster under the rim. He could easily snag 20.
The Hawks will provide a real challenge to Philadelphia in this series. They’ll test the #1 seed’s team chemistry and consistency. If I had to pick a side in this contest I would lean Atlanta +4 for that reason. But I don’t. With Embiid likely playing and the 76ers at home and focused on their quest to finally get to the NBA Finals, this is their game to decide and I think they’ll step up. I’ll swallow the juice and take a moneyline play in game 1.
Mavericks +6.5 (-110), 2 units: I’m going to keep this write up shorter than the first since we’re already heard and seen it all in this series. It’s game 7, both teams have exclusively won their 3 games on the road, and superstars Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard are putting on a show. I’ve already put a bet on the under when it was at 216, which felt ridiculously high, and that proved to be true since we now see it down to as low as 209.5 at some books. What I will play on is the Mavericks getting points.
As we’ve noted, Dallas has played better and won in this series on the road. Game 7 will be at the Staples Center. In no way shape or form should the Mavericks be getting over 6 points here. That’s over 2 possessions. Luka has proved un-guardable in this matchup so why would I project his downfall today? In case you’re unaware, Luka Doncic was playing professional basketball at age 14. AGE 14! For as sophisticated as LAC is on the defensive end, Luka is all the more advanced on offense. He’ll find ways to get open and he’s proven to play his best under pressure. Kristap is due for some positive regression and the Mavericks have playmakers all over the court in Hardaway Jr., Finney-Smith, Kleber and others. The fact that this is a seven game series speaks to how contentious it’s been. I can’t imagine this one not coming down to the wire. Regardless of the outcome (and to be clear, it’s way more likely that’s it’s a close contest), the value is on Dallas +6.5, period.
This should be some good primetime TV as the #3 seeded Bucks travel to the Barclays Center to take on Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden of the surging Nets. Here are my best bets and predictions for game 1:
Bucks 1Q +1 (-115) 1 unit, &
Bucks +4 (-110), 1.5 units & Bucks/Nets under 240 (-110), 1.5 units —
I think we’re getting really good value on Milwaukee tonight. The loaded and confident Brooklyn Nets head into the 2nd round of the playoffs after a nice 4-1 series defeat of the Celtics. While that’s marginally impressive, it’s what we expected. The Bucks are the hotter and more rested team. Clobbering last year’s Eastern Conference Champions with revenge on the mind, Milwaukee heads into the 2nd round with little doubt in how far they can go. And while the Nets have upped their defensive game lately, they haven’t fared well historically against Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Greek-freak and his supporting cast won’t be afraid of the “big 3” or the enigmatic energy surrounding the Nets this year. In 3 games between these two titans during the regular season, Milwaukee was the victor in 2 of those contests. In those 3 matchups, Giannis had 34, 49, and 36 points. Of course and as always, you have to put an asterisk by Nets games in-season since the big 3 didn’t play together very much. Still, I think you could make an argument that Milwaukee is the better team. Based on what I’ve seen this year and what we know about the Bucks in big games, I like their defense to play considerably better than what Brooklyn can offer. On the other end of the court, I don’t think the difference in offensive quality is that disparate either. Sure it’s hard to compete with Harden and Durant and Kyrie from a pure shooting perspective, but Milwaukee has ego-less role players and talent at every position. From Middleton to Holiday to Lopez and beyond, they’re a deep roster with a ton of time playing together. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Nets show a lack of chemistry in game one against a new opponent.
And that’s another reason why I like the under. Even during the regular season, a total of 240 is huge. It’s even more glaring in the postseason. The nerves and pressure of the moment play big roles in crucial games like this, especially when both teams are looking to gain an edge and get that first win. I expect few shots to soar towards the bucket without getting contested. In fact, the only player who might be immune to that is Giannis. His size and length has proven too much in the past (just ask Durant, who was happy to compliment last year’s MVP after he completely owned him in their last battle) and I think he’ll score plenty tonight. Even with all their talent, the Nets don’t have players with the size and athleticism to stop Giannis. Good luck, Brooklyn.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Milwaukee won this series. Everyone in the media and among the NBA community is projecting a Nets’ title run. The books are too and I’m here to take advantage. Sprinkling a little cabbage on the moneyline isn’t a bad idea either. I’ll go with the Bucks to catch the Nets off guard, start hot, and at least keep this game close throughout.
I am looking forward to this fight due to the contrast of styles. Tanner Boser looks like he just came out of the Rusty Spur Saloon looking for a bar fight while Ilir Latifi looks like a Nose Tackle for San Diego State. Boser is a Stand up fighter who is 29 years old with a 19-7 record. He only beats his opponents by decision or KOs. Latifi is all about the ground game at 37 years old. Latifi will occasionally KO someone but hasn’t done that since 2016. I see value in the derivative market here. If Tanner Boser wins, I think that it means he knocked out Latifi who has been susceptible to it. The price is at -190 for a straight win but +210 for the KO/TKO/DQ. If Latifi wins this fight, it most likely means that this fight went the distance being that Boser has never been submitted. I think Latifi tries to get points and win a strategic fight. The price on Latifi by decision is a nice +350. Gonna play both sides here and hope for the bigger price to come through.
Ilir Latifi by decison +350 – 1 star
Tanner Boser by KO/TKO/DQ +210 – 1 star
Augusto Sakai vs Jairzinho Rosenstruik -120
This should be a great main event. Sakai is an up and coming fighter who has done extremely well at the heavyweight division. His only UFC loss was his last fight vs Alistair Overeem and I think that he was winning that fight until he got rolled to the ground in the 5th round. That fight was Sakai’s only loss by KO and he has an amazing 15-2-1 MMA record at 30 years old. Jairzinho Rosenstruik is one of my favorite fighters because he has a fantastic stand up game and seems to take out the trash when he goes against tier 2 fighters, but something changed with him since he got KO’d in 20 seconds vs Francis Ngannou. Rosenstruik recently fought a top contender in Cyril Gane and decided to play possum the whole match and eventually lost by the points. Jairzinho can knock out anyone, but he is now fighting with a bit more care and is worried about his jaw. Being that Jairzinho is now a bit more timid, and he knows that this fight is 5 rounds, I think there is a very legitimate chance that this fight goes past round 3. Sakai has a great jaw and I expect him to respect Rosenstruik’s stand up. I am taking the over 2.5 rounds
Big Sandy is finally here and we finally have a triple crown race with a decent field. It is nice to see Essential Quality and Rock Your World back after devastating Kentucky Derby performances. Both of these horses ran into each other right off the start and could never quite recover. Essential Quality however made up a ton of ground finishing 4th and this horse ran a much longer distance than the juiced up temporary winner in Medina Spirit. Being that this race is a mile and a half, I have to say that Essential Quality is a very deserving favorite with his past performances finishing 1st in every race except for the Kentucky Derby as well as his breeding. I think this horse wins this race but it isn’t worth it at 2-1 to do a W/P/S. My strategy is to key on 4 horses that I think have good distance breeding, great speed figures as well as some good pricing and my mix is pretty much the 2/7/8/6. The 7 horse Rock your world had an amazing run at the Santa Anita blowing away Medina Spirit while the 6 horse known agenda has good breeding and finishes. The 8 horse Overtook has the breeding at the big price. I am playing some combinations that will allow me to profit if Essential Quality doesn’t finish 1st or 2nd but the horses that can bust my tickets are the 1 horse Bourbonic who hasn’t impressed me and the 5 horse France Go De Ina who doesn’t belong. Here are my tickets and best of luck!
We’re 10-7 this week in MLB betting and there are plenty of opportunities to win more today. Let’s keep it rollin’– happy weekend, people!
White Sox -1.5 (-120), 1.2 units: We’ve seen what the White Sox can do against left-handed pitching and they haven’t slowed much. Chicago’s bats are hitting a healthy .835 OPS and own a .478 slugging percentage and .278 batting average. Leftie Tarik Skubal (4.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over 49 innings) gets the nod today for Detroit and he’s anything but unhittable. Lucas Giolito (3.73 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.54 xFIP) still sports a solid profile and should be able to limit a pedestrian Tigers’ lineup that hasn’t found their bats yet against their AL Central foe. The Sox by margin, yet again, sounds right to me.
Astros win (-105), 1.5 units: Ross Stripling (5.11 ERA, 1.38 WHIP over 37 innings) has a lot on his shoulders today after his Blue Jays got a fresh whipping at home against Greinke and the Astros last night. Using a ton of relief support, Toronto’s bullpen got blasted for 10 runs in the final 4 innings, granting Houston a blowout 13-1 win. The Astros lead the season series 3-1 and all their wins have come by margin. Today it looks like that could be the case again. With a tired crew of relievers backing up Stripling, Houston’s starter Jose Urquidy (3.02 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over 50.2 innings) comes into this contest feeling confident. Allowing only 3 runs and only 13 hits in his last 4 starts against good hitting teams, two of which were 7 inning outings, Urquidy is showing a really steady command and seems to be settling into his prime. The Astros have won the last 5 games Urquidy has started and I think they snag another one today.
Indians/Orioles first 5 under 4.5 (-120), 1.5 units: Along with the first inning bringing no runs (hint, cough), I love the first half of this ballgame going under. Aaron Civale and John Means are similar in that they have subtle command flaws at times but rarely allow an opposing offense to explode. Civale will allow more contact than Means but usually excels at limiting runs. His last effort against Toronto was a let-down so I look for a strong showing from him today. Means has regressed a little, back to his average in many categories, but still flexes an incredible 98.6% LOB rate and BABIP (.188). I expect a low scoring affair in this contest and since I trust the bullpen’s less, I’ll stick to the first 5.
Giants win (-166), 1.66 units: This is another play on Kevin Gausman (6-0, 1.40 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 2.20 FIP over 70.2 innings), in Gausman we trust, because I just love his profile so far. When there are sell-signs on a pitcher putting up good numbers it should be obvious, but a slew of Gausman’s indicators (0.51 HR/9 innings, 89.5% LOB rate, 6.2% HR/FB ratio, 2.23 BABIP) are just so steady and impressive that we can’t pull the “negative-regression” card just yet. The long-time minor league ace Kohl Stewart gets another call-up start for Chicago today. The 26 year old has a ton of potential and some stints in the majors with Minnesota. He devolved a bit between 2018 and 2019 but looks to regain trust from his new ballclub in his second start this year. While he has upside, I trust Gausman more and since both bullpens have been worked, I need the side with a pitcher who I’m confident can take us to 7+ innings. I’m on the Giants.
Padres (-105), 2 units: The Padres are the better overall team here and with two aces of this caliber on the mound, I just trust their bullpen and lineup way more than New York. Jacob deGrom rarely gets the run and rotation support he deserves and this feels like one of those let-down spots again Saturday. At a discounted price, I have to take advantage of this opportunity to play on San Diego. They won’t be intimidated by this level of pitching or competition coming from the loaded NL West.
The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival which started Thursday finally comes to a close at the conclusion of the Belmont Stakes. We have an incredible day of racing with 9 Stakes headlined by the last leg of the Triple Crown. Here’s a full breakdown of Saturday’s Card at Belmont Park.
Race #1- $90,000 Maiden
We start off the card at 11:35 am ET, with a $90,000 Maiden sprint that goes 5 1/2 Furlongs (F). WIT is one of the favorite’s due to the Pletcher and Ortiz Jr. combo. However, Ortiz Jr. took a spill on Thursday that will require him to miss some time. He posted on twitter Thursday morning that he will be out for a few weeks so some other jockey will pick up this mounts for Saturday. HAGLER is another favorite, due to his first race where he finished 2nd in an Maiden Special Weight (Msw). Rounding out the morning line favorites, is KEEPCALMCARRYON another Pletcher horse who will be ridden by Johnny V. H was sired by the 2012 Belmont Champion UNION RAGS, this horse looks to have the pedigree to win this race.
Pick: Win – 2, 4
Pick: Exacta – 2, 4/ 1, 2, 3, 4
Race #2- $90,000 Maiden
In Race 2, we have another Maiden Race that stretches out to 7 F. The quality in horses definitely drops a bit here, but still should be a good race none the less. PIPELINE is the morning line favorite, ridden by Javier Castellano. He’s coming off a 5th place finish on April 24th in a $90,000 Msw. RANGER FOX goes off in the 8th Post Position (PP) following a 2nd place finish in a $90k Msw in May as well. In that race RANGER FOX bested the #7 horse KING JAMES who took home third. KING JAMES was sired by 2016 Derby winner NYQUIST. Another horse with some pedigree in this race is MACH ONE who was sired by AIR FORCE BLUE, one of the best two year old’s in Europe who won three consecutive Group One wins.
Pick: Exacta Box – 6, 7, 8
Race #3- Gl Woody Stephens Stakes
The 3rd Race officially kicks off the stretch of Stakes races that end in Race #11. JACKIE’S WARRIOR headlines this race who has a 5-for-5 record around one turn races. He returns to Belmont where he won the GI Champagne running his best speed figure. DRAIN THE CLOCK looks to be one best challengers JACKIE’S WARRIOR will face. He is set to run his first Gl Stakes after winning two G3 Stakes and placing in a G2 Stakes race. CADDO RIVER is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby and will cut back in distance here. DREAM SHAKE looks to have another go at JACKIE’S WARRIOR where he finished second to him in the G2 Pat Day Mile. Prior to that he ran third to Kentucky Derby entrants (and winner?), ROCK YOUR WORLD and MEDINA SPIRIT.
Pick: Exacta – 3/ 2,4,6
Race #4- Gll Brooklyn Stakes
In the Brooklyn Stakes, we have a 9 horse field that doesn’t really have a clear cut favorite in my opinion. For me, this is probably the toughest race to handicap through the first four races. This race has two Pletcher horses, both of which are contenders in MORETTI and AJAAWEED. AJAAWEED is a potential up-and-comer at marathon distances, and MORETTI is coming off a victory in the Birdstone Stakes where he defeated fellow YOU’RE TO BLAME and ROCKETRY. MORETTI also has some Pedigree as he was sired by MEDAGLIA D’ORO who had a very successful career at Saratoga taking home the 2002 Travers Stakes and the 2003 Whitney Handicap. Another morning line favorite, is LONE ROCK who won the Marathon Overnight Stakes defeating RY’S THE GUY. MUSICAL HEART is also fresh off a Stakes win where he held off AJAAWEED and ROCKETRY.
Pick: Exacta Box – 5, 6, 9
Race #5- Gl Acorn Stakes
Finally in Race 5 we have our first heavy favorite of the day in SEARCH RESULTS. She is the morning line (ml) favorite, with starting odds of 1-1. She looks to rebound here, fresh off a disappointing finish in the Gl Kentucky Oaks where she finished second losing to MALATHAAT. TRAVEL COLUMN is one of the other ml favorite’s who finished fifth in that same Kentucky Oaks race. She cuts down in distance in the Acorn Stakes which may benefit her. OBLIGATORY won her last race which was a G2 Stakes race defeating fellow contestants in DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE and MAKE MISCHIEF. However, prior to that race she was defeated by TRAVEL COLUMN where she ended up running 4th. DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE starts off at better odds than OBLIGATORY here and that’s due to her last race. She came off a long lay off ran well and is expected to continue that upward trajectory here making her a contender. MISS BRAZIL is also live in this race and goes off at 5-1 ml odds. She’s the daughter of PALACE MALICE who won the 2013 Belmont and has given SEARCH RESULTS a challenge in a previous race.
No Pick: You can try to beat the #1 with an ex box of ALL/1 or you can key the #1 in a multi race exotic wager. I may bet this race closer to post time, but as of now there’s really no value.
Race #6- Gl Jackpocket Jaipur Stakes
In Race 6, the 7 year old BOUND FOR NOWHERE is the ml favorite ridden by Junior Alvarado. BOUND FOR NOWHERE has had issues in the past but according to Trainer Wesley Ward, the horse is fully healthy and has never looked better. FAST BOAT enters this race off a Gll Turf Classic win where he defeated SOMBEYAY. We have two fillies in this race in GOT STORMY and OLEKSANDRA. GOT STORMY has bested the boys before in the Gl Fourstardave where she set the course record. OLEKSANDRA has defeated fellow starter STUBBINS back in June of 2020 where she won the Gl Jaipur Stakes. STUBBINS however, goes off at 6-1 compared to OLEKSANDRA, who has 15-1 ml odds. He finished fourth in his last outing, the Glll Turf Sprint, but took a bad step along the turn ruining his chances.
Pick: Exacta Box – 6, 10, 11
Race #7- Gl Ogden Phipps Stakes
What a treat we have here in the Ogden Phipps Stakes with Preakness winner SWISS SYDIVER, Kentucky Oaks winner SHEDARESTHEDEVIL and Apple Blossom winner LETRUSKA in the field. LETRUSKA is the favorite in the race coming off that Apple Blossom win but will have a jockey change that has yet to be announced. I’m guessing it’ll likely be Kendrick Carmouche as he’s the only jockey at Belmont that has ridden this horse before. SWISS SKYDIVER struggled in her last outing finishing third in that Apple Blossom Handicap but wasn’t 100% fit due to a scratch on her right foot. SHEDARESTHEDEVIL has beaten SWISS SKYDIVER and LETRUSKA before and could very well go off as the favorite by the time this race starts. VALIANCE is another horse to consider in the Ogden Phipps who is coming off a second place finish to MONOMOY GIRL in Breeders’ Cup Distaff. This will be her five year old debut but has shown she has the class to win.
*** EDIT #1 Swiss Skydiver, and #2 Valiance are out
Pick: Exacta Box – 3, 5. 7
Race #8- Gl Longines Just a Game Stakes
In Race 8 we have 12 Stakes winners in the field who are all looking for their first Gl Turf win. BLOWOUT leads the three Chad Brown horses, and is coming off an G2 Distaff Turf Mile gate to wire win. In this race, Brown also has TAMAHERE and POCKET SQAURE. Chad Brown has said that TAMAHERE has been training well and should benefit from the cut back in distance to a mile. POCKET SQUARE will have a new jockey aboard and will step up in class for this race. SUMMER ROMANCE and ALTHIQA have been shipped in from England for this race. Both of these 4 year old fillies took home stakes victories during Meydan Racecourse’s 2021 Dubai World Cup Carnival. Peter Brant who also owns favorite BLOWOUT has entered REGAL GLORY in this race again, who looks for redemption after finishing 4th in the Just A Game Stakes last year.
Pick: Exacta Box – 6, 9, 10
Pick: Exacta – 10/ 1, 6, 9, 11
Race #9- Gl Hill ‘N’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap
KNICKS GO comes into this race as the favorite, based off his previous results and speed figures. In his last out, he took fourth in the $20 million Saudi Cup. However, prior to take race he won the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational and Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. MISCHEVIOUS ALEX is coming off a win in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap where he ran his best Beyer Speed Figure of 109. He’s mainly only ran in sprint races so far, besides his first race ever, the G3 Gotham Stakes where he did win. It’ll be interesting to see if the return to distance gives him any trouble. DR. POST trained by Todd Pletcher, is coming off a G3 win but has yet to take home a win in any Grade 1 or 2 race. SILVER SLATE has had success in his previous races winning his last five races including the Gll Oaklawn Stakes but will have a step up in class here.
Pick: Exacta – 6/ ALL
Race #10- Gl Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes
This is one of the deepest fields on the card for Saturday and should be an entertaining race. Trainer Chad Brown enters this race with four out of the ten horse field in the Grade l Manhattan Stakes. However, none of those horses are the favorite as that belongs to Todd Pletcher’s COLONEL LIAM. He comes into this race unbeaten in his past four races but will stretch out a little here to a 1 1/4 Mile and have a new jockey since Ortiz Jr. is out for a few weeks. In his last race, the Turf Class, DOMESTIC SPENDING and COLONEL LIAM dead-heated. In addition to COLONEL LIAM, DOMESTIC SPENDING has faced GUFO before where he defeated him twice. In addition to DOMESTIC SPENDING, GUFO has struggled in his last few outings losing to fellow entrant CHANNEL CAT as well. Chad Brown rounds out his entrants with MASTER PIECE and ROCKEMPEROR.
Pick: Exacta – 4, 9/ 4, 6, 9, 10
Race #11- Gl Belmont Stakes
Capping off the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival we have the “Test of the Champion”. ROMBAUER the winner of the PREAKNESS looks to capture the third leg of the Triple Crown. However, he’ll face ESSENTIAL QUALITY who was the Kentucky Derby favorite that finished a disappointing 4th. He looks for redemption here after taking the first loss of his career. HOT ROD CHARLIE is another contender who finished third in the Kentucky Derby but this colt’s pedigree for the distance is a bit lacking compared with some of the other Belmont starters. KNOWN AGENDA comes into this race as another horse looking for redemption after finishing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. ROCK YOUR WORLD had an awful trip in the Kentucky Derby finishing 17th but should have a much better trip in the Belmont. He’ll look to try to get to the lead early but may be joined by ESSNETIAL QUALITY and HOT ROD CHARLIE who will hope to do the same.
Well my two player props didn’t hit last night (1 point off for Lebron, quite a few points off for Lillard), but that’s okay. Sometimes you have the right side and it just falls short. We’re 27-14 the last 11 days in betting the NBA playoffs and looking for some more wins today. Happy weekend, everyone!
Bets: Clippers -2.5 (-110), 1.5 units & Batum over 5.5 rebounds (-106), 1 unit & Lean, Luka Doncic over 29.5 pts (-118):
Are you ready for game six?! Kawhi and the Clippers head to Dallas, a place where perhaps they prefer to play these days, against the 3-2 series leading Mavericks tonight and this should be another great game. Kawhi Leonard had a disappointing game five, shooting only 7-19 from the field and 1-7 from beyond the arc for what felt like a meaningless 20 points. At key points of the game, he couldn’t make the clutch shots his team needed. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic was on the other end of the floor eating the Clippers alive, again. Luka put on an MVP like performance, scoring 42 points and securing 14 assists along with 8 rebounds. The Mavericks have yet to win a home game and Luka had his worst performance at American Airlines in game four, scoring only 19 points. Like any wager, prop bets are risky and nothing is a sure thing but I can’t imagine Luke not showing up and putting up another big performance for his team. If the Mavs want to close out this series, he’ll need to. I’ll just lean his points-prop going over since I’m sure LAC will pay him extra attention tonight after that massive performance.
One of these series is going 7 games and this feels like the one. The Clippers are too good a franchise to let this end early and I think they show up big on the road here again tonight. Like many teams, the “other basketball team from LA” takes on the personality of its star, Kawhi. Leonard has always been quiet, cerebral, unemotional, even stoic. He’s not an in-your-face leader like MJ or Kobe or Chris Paul. He leads by the way he plays and when he’s motivated, he’s one of the best in the world. I can’t claim to know what happens in player’s minds from game to game but just like any team, the Clippers are prone to letting their guard down. Even with all their elite talent, I mean they’re literally 10 deep on that roster, a game where they’re unmotivated or miscommunicating will predictably lead to a loss. That’s especially true in the playoffs. In game five, something about LAC was off. They were arguing, passing the ball away, couldn’t connect on big shots; they just didn’t have any fluidity. The jury is still out on Tyronn Lue and just how good a coach he really is but he’s dealt with big stars and contentious personalities before. Perhaps needless to say, I expect a more buttoned-up Clippers team Friday night. When they’re dialed in, the Clips are capable of dominating any team in the association. I could see that result tonight.
I want to play on a Kawhi’s over 29.5 points prop but I won’t make it an official play here. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if he went off tonight. At times, Kawhi has looked like the easily the best all around basketball player in the world in this series. He’ll look way better than he did in game 5 tonight. I also like a small play on Nicolas Batum’s rebounds. Batum’s been starting for the Clippers in Ibaka’s absence and his playing time has climbed drastically, leading mostly to solid defense and contributions in assists in rebounds. This is a big game with both defenses clamping down so each team will need to crash the boards and hope for second-change opportunities. Batum has the size, skill and poise to easily eclipse this prop, especially with his elevated playing time.
With just one game on the board, I hope this is the fantastic watch I expect. Enjoy the game, place these bets if you agree and let’s win a little cabbage!
This will be the second game of a four-game set between the Minnesota Twins and the Kansas City Royals on Friday night. The Royals took game one by a score of 6-5 on Thursday night. Opening Day starter Brad Keller will get the ball for Kansas City. Keller, who posted good numbers from 2018-2020, is having the worst season of his career with a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 50.2 innings pitched. Matt Shoemaker gets the nod for the Twins and has been struggling this season with a 5.90 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 10 starts. However, he has an impressive 1.19 WHIP on the road! Minnesota is averaging 4.28 runs per game on the road and rank 3rd in wOBA vs righties on the road while scoring 2.88 runs in the first 5 innings. Who knows what could happen if we involve these bullpens, which both rank in the bottom 3rd of the league. I see Shoemaker keeping the Twins in this game and outscoring the Royals in the first 5 innings.
A nice 2-1 day yesterday and we’re 8-5 in MLB free plays this week. Happy Friday!
Indians win (-113), 2 units: The Cleveland Indians bring their services to the town of Baltimore today as the Orioles recently, finally, got off the schneid with some nice wins over Minnesota. It’s a battle of young promising pitchers today as Baltimore’s Keegan Akin, a 2nd year starter who did just okay in his 2020 majors debut, takes on big man Jean Carlos Mejia, the 24 year old Dominican righty who’s been tearing up the minors. He’ll get his first shot at earning a long-term stay in the majors this year. Mejia, in just 5 short innings in 2021, has looked the part. Back in 2019, FanGraphs noted that, “(Mejia) showed the ability to overpower hitters and had a K-BB of 36-9 with a strong ground-ball rate. He has the potential for three above-average offerings, including a 92-95 mph fastball. Standing 6-4, he has the frame to develop into an innings-eating, mid-rotation arm.” Mejia appears to be a pitcher I want to play on and this is a good spot to do it.
Akin has potential but his profile in the minors and in his brief stints in the majors suggests he doesn’t have the pedigree to notch any real staying power in a rotation. The Indians bats have found their groove recently and although the O’s recent victories against the Twins were a good look after a long slump, Cleveland has the pitching and players to out-class Baltimore. I expect “The Land” to get a W today in the first game of this series.
Rays win (-135), 1.5 units: The Rays broke out of their slump against the Yankees and secured a win to take a 8-5 lead on their divisional rival, which bodes well for their confidence and attitude heading into Friday. Surprisingly, the Rays haven’t performed as well against the bottom dwelling AL West Rangers this year. After a game one win against Texas, Tampa fell in 3 straight contests in their first series; all were by margin. One of those losses had Josh Fleming (2.98 ERA, 1.04 WHIP over 45.1 innings) on the mound, Tampa’s starter today, but the previous let-down certainly wasn’t his fault. Fleming handled himself well against the Rangers, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run over 5.1 innings in his first start of the season. Thanks to a big 7th inning with Chris Mazza pitching in relief for Tampa, the Rangers snagged that game 5-1 back in mid-April. I feel better about the Rays’ chances today. Ryan Yarbrough pitched 9 brilliant innings against the Yankees yesterday and spared Tampa’s bullpen from any time on the dirt. Kyle Gibson (2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP over 60.1 innings) has been Texas’ most steady pitcher this season but he’s due for some negative regression. The 33 year old’s solid numbers usually don’t hold up as the season progresses, which is especially true now that he’s beyond his prime. Gibson’s 3.23 FIP and 4.02 xFIP, along with a decreasing LOB rate (79.9%), suggest that he’s due for some setbacks in the near-future. I like the Rays in a good spot after a nice win to capitalize on a Rangers’ team that can’t find a W in their last 9 games.
Dodgers win (-130), 1.5 units: May I go on a brief rant? Thanks. We lose a lot of money in sports betting because of our internal biases. Unless you’re a fan, franchises like the Lakers, Chiefs, Patriots, Yankees, Dodgers, and other elite teams of recent memory tend to get the shaft from most of us when we peruse our daily betting slates. This is also true of superstar athletes in solo sports like tennis, boxing and MMA. Who wants to bet on Floyd Mayweather? Who actually wants to take Serena for the 1000th time to win a tournament? Let’s shoot for the value picks, right? Let’s go for the underdogs.
Most of us have an underdog mentality because we’re underdogs in life. Unless you’re born into the 1% of American’s absurdly wealthy, the majority of sports bettors are trying to get an extra buck to further support their dreams of success. This is a perpetual and often haunting reality in a dog-eat-dog world. And it has us ignoring opportunity. Why am I making this point? Because many of us are constantly losing money we could gain if we could destroy these mental biases and just wager where based on value, even if it means betting on those heavyweight teams. Case in point, the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.
They may not win Friday, this is no “I guarantee” speech, but I think most people would agree that the Dodgers are a better ballclub than the Atlanta Braves. That’s saying a lot considering how loaded Atlanta is on offense and especially with their recent additions on the mound. A team like LAD, who was projected to win 102.5 games this year, is easy to discount as we look for + money angles throughout this volatile MLB season. I think today is a good spot for them and, because they’re facing a fellow elite, we’re getting a little discount on the wager.
Julio Urias (3.61 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, 3.24 xFIP over 67.1 innings) has a profile very similar to Ian Anderson (3.27 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 55 innings). The difference is Urias’ numbers are a little inflated after his poor showing last time out against San Francisco. Maybe Urias lets down his guard when he’s not as intimidated or cautious about an opponent, but the Giants scored an uncharacteristic 11 runs against the Dodgers in late May, 7 of which came at the permission of Urias. Allowing 11 hits and a homerun over 5 innings in his last start, the 24 year old leftie will look to reset his command today. The Braves are a talented offense but Freeman still hasn’t caught fire and the loss of Ozuna isn’t going away any time soon. When they face above-average pitching, the Braves can really get in trouble. I trust the Dodgers and a fired up Urias to get the job done today.
Angels win (-175), 1.75 units: The Angels bats’ seem to have only two modes of operation: white hot or ice cold. Of course the absence of Mike Trout recently doesn’t help but still, this is an offense that should be putting up more consistent numbers on a more consistent basis. But that’s okay– tonight the Angels get the Shohei Ohtani boost. Ya know, the “I’m the dude who leads my team in homeruns and batting average, and oh yea that’s right I’m also a pretty elite pitcher this year” kind of boost. The 26 year old phenom from Japan has a 2.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts over 36.1 innings. One day after an embarrassing let-down loss at home against their AL west foe, one who actually boasts a better record than the home team, the Angels are looking for redemption against Seattle tonight and I love the boost Ohtani gives them. Right hander Robert Dugger (6.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP over 17.1 innings), the 25 year old three year starter who’s struggled to find his footing in the majors, seems to be regressing again in 2021. I trust Ohtani and positive regression from LAA’s lineup. Go Halos!
