Too bad Kawhi Leonard had an off night (7-19 from the field, 1-7 from beyond the arc) or we might’ve had a 4-0 night with that Doncic/Kawhi player prop. Ah well, 3-1 nights seem to be a pattern for me and how can I complain? 75% ain’t a bad thing. Oh and we’re 25-12 over the last 11 days… in the words of Lloyd Christmas: I like it a lot! Onto Thursday and the always entertaining Western Conference series!

Parlay, Blazers win 1st QTR and 1st QTR over 58.5 (1 unit to win 1.91 units), Lillard over 34.5 points (-105), 1.5 units and Blazers 1st Half -3 (-105), 1.5 units: All separate bets. Can you tell I like Portland early? I don’t want to be a broken record here so I won’t get into all the reasons why I think Denver is the better team. I like them to win this series and you can read my past articles on why for more details. That being said, regardless of how good the Nuggets play tonight, what more can we say about the enigma that is Damian Lillard? I don’t think we can say he’s the “best clutch shooter of all time” but shit, he has to be in the top 5. When Portland is down one possession and they need a three, Dame-time is damn near automatic. He seemed tired and frustrated after game 5 but I have little doubt that he’ll show up big time at home tonight. No point total seems high enough these days for Lillard, especially with how dependent the Blazers are on their star rising to the occasion time and time again.

Portland didn’t get off to a hot start in Tuesday’s game but they found a way to climb their way back into the contest. Two overtimes and one deflating loss later, the Blazers head back home in a must-win situation to keep their title hopes alive. In the 2 games where Portland won, the Blazers also won the first quarter by margins of 8 and 5 points. In the 3 games they lost, the Nuggets won the first quarter by margins of 6, 9, and 13. Apparently the first 12 minutes really matters. The Nuggets and Blazers are similar in while they don’t play incredibly fast (they rank near the bottom in pace this postseason), they score a ton of points. That’s because both offenses are highly efficient from the field, typically, and they have a plethora of great shooting talent. If either of these offenses take the early lead, their chances of sustaining productive offense and maintaining a lead are probably higher than most teams (last night was the exception of course, where Denver allowed Portland to come back from a 20+ point deficit, though they still ended up winning).

I expect Portland to come out very fired up after dropping that last game. They’re at home and this is a team, led by the moxie of Damian Lillard, that’s been in spots like this before. They’ve also proven their resiliency. For the full game, the Blazers at -5 feels a little too hefty for me, and lord knows Denver is capable of closing the gap, but a first quarter and first half win is much more comfortable. I’m glad this game will be televised on TNT and not overlapped by PHX/LAL– the public deserves to watch this entertaining series.

Lean, Lakers win (-135) and Lebron James over 29.5 points (-120), 2 units: Your cookie-cutter Vegas “OG bettor” might be pissed off when he/she keeps seeing my prop bets but it’s a new age of sports betting and there’s opportunity abound! The entertaining and unpredictable Lakers/Suns series leads us to game 6 where the embattled 2020 champions look to rediscover their confidence tonight, at home, against a Suns team that’s been mighty impressive in the last two matchups. Naturally you think I would ride Phoenix into this contest and drop a few units on it, right? I mean they’re living up to their name– the Suns are RED HOT right now.

Naa, no can do. I realize the Lakers looked horrific Tuesday night (a 30 point deficit for nearly 3 quarters? YIKES) but we can’t take small sample sizes and use that to wager our money. That’s an easy way to lose long term in this game. Plus, it’s a damn-near guarantee (damn-near, which is not a guarantee, just to clarify) that the Lakers’ players will perform better tonight. Literally no one on LAL’s roster looked good Tuesday. Schroder was 0-9 from the field for a big goose egg. Drummond only had 7 points in Anthony Davis’ absence. Caldwell-Pope? 0 points. Lebron? 9-19 and a -24 point differential. Morris? 4 points. I could go on and on. Kyle Kuzma might’ve been their best player 2 nights ago (LOL x 10).

Anthony Davis is officially a game-time decision tonight, which tells me that either he won’t play or if he does play, he’ll be far from 100%. To me that means one thing– the Lakers absolutely need Lebron to put in a huge performance if they have any shot at winning. In a game with a ton of garbage time on Tuesday night, Lebron still managed to score 24 points. With the media and other NBA stars calling on King James to be more aggressive and take the team on his shoulders, something he probably can’t do in the long term but could certainly can do tonight, I expect a more stone cold and confident Lebron. Over 29.5 points in a game this crucial? I love that prop.

With or without Anthony Davis, the Lakers are in a great spot to muster a win. Everyone, not just Lebron, can certainly play much better. While I’ll only lean LAL, I would caution bettors out there who want to lay heavy units on Phoenix. This is a spot where, if you like the Suns, it’s probably best to proceed with caution. This is still the playoffs, this is still a Lebron-led team, they’re at home, and they just suffered one of the more embarrassing losses in NBA playoff history. The narrative will look different tonight.

Just a cool 22-11 record over the last 10 days of NBA picks and we cruise to Wednesday, with four games and plenty to discuss from a gambling perspective. Let’s get it!

Wizards/76ers over 229 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean, Wizards +6.5  Remember what happened when Embiid exited game four? Me too– the Wizards looked totally different (and much more capable). Joel’s injury has more implications than simply his scoring contributions. While his absence might disable Philadelphia from thriving on the offensive end, the 76ers also suffer from a really shallow front court without their star. The wingspan and sheer size of Embiid is enough to scare away most infiltrating shooters. In game four, the Wizards out-scored the Sixers 48-40 in the paint and 21-7 in fast break points. This is a big reason why I lean Washington tonight and why I love the over. Embiid’s absence and the lack of Philly’s front court size/prowess gives the Wizards an extra gear when running their offense. Instead of the game slowing down because Embiid is posting up defenders or guarding the rim, the hardwood feels much bigger and much more forgiving. Dwight Howard can help but he’s not the youthful “Superman” we once knew.

This is a simple handicap and the over is the right side more often than it is wrong when these two teams face. The 76ers and Wizards still lead the playoffs in tempo and unless Doc Rivers make some sort of major adjustment, Philadelphia will look to out-run and out-score Washington while the Wizards will try and do the same. Beal and Westbrook have an inkling of hope now with Embiid out so look for them to attack and set the pace early. I’m on the over again tonight.

Hawks win (even), 2 units: This is a tough bet but it’s mind over heart. As this series trudges on, it’s become more and more apparent who the better team is. The Knicks are certainly the more popular team and it feels like we’ve all been riding this exciting wave of amplified energy emanating out of Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are to the NBA what the Cowboys are to the NFL– everyone kinda wants them to win… well, maybe not everyone, but the sport is better when they’re at least competitive. That same energy is only multiplied when you watch New York. The Knicks are such an easy team to get behind. They’re tough, defensively minded, no ego is too big and it’s all about team basketball. And more importantly, they’re not nonchalant and apathetic like so many of today’s stars (cough, cough, Ben Simmons, cough).

It reminds me of my NY Giants back in 2011. Led by Eli Manning, who still isn’t considered “elite” after two Super Bowl MVPs (which I agree with, by the way), the Giants were a blue-collar gritty team that took the NFC by surprise. They then went head to head with the Patriots, who were 18-0, in the game of games. As the story goes, New York played well over their head, stifled the historically good New England offense led by Tom Brady, and went on to win their second title in 4 years. Just like the Knicks in game two, the Giants were capable of beating the Patriots in one game. But does anyone think the Giants would have survived a 7 game series with New England? The answer to that is a loud and clear hell no. We all know the Patriots were the better team.

The Hawks aren’t the 2021 NBA version of the 2011 Patriots, but they’re very talented. Sure the series is back at MSG and I’m sure it’ll be just as electric as last time. I don’t think it’ll matter. Trae Young may actually play better under the pressure and noise of an arena like MSG (that was one of Kobe’s trademark traits) and his teammates tend to follow his energy. The Knicks rarely blow teams out and the Hawks rarely get annihilated so, best case scenario for New York: this is a back and forth, close game into the fourth quarter. If that’s true, which roster do you trust to land shots in big moments? I trust Atlanta by a mile. No one wants this series to end but this isn’t a fairytale. The Hawks are leading this series 3-1 for a reason. They’re better, and they’ll put an exclamation point on that tonight.

Grizzlies/Jazz bet: DM me on Twitter to get my free premium pick on this contest.

Luka and Kawhi to both score over 30 points (+235), 1 unit: Much to the chagrin of your traditional sports bettor, I’ll choose a prop instead of a side in this game tonight. This is a huge game five for both of these franchises and I’m confident it’ll rest on the able shoulders of Kawhi Leonard and Luka Doncic. Luka is battling some weird neck injury, that’s not ideal, but there’s a 0% chance he sits tonight.

The Clippers had a dominant all-around performance in game four to tie up this series. Luka had a subpar shooting night, going only 9-24 from the field, but he still managed to get 19 of the Mavericks’ 81 points. That’s nearly a 25% market share of Dallas’ offense and I expect the same tonight, albeit with more overall points for the away team. Doncic’s point totals through 4 games against LAC: 31, 39, 44, and 19. Not only do I love the Slovenian star to go over 30 points tonight, I think he may shatter that ceiling. Does the neck injury scare me? Sure, a little. But Luka has never been overly flashy or one of these players that contorts his body to make buckets. He’s a straight-ahead cerebral shooter and I’m sure with today’s physical therapy, he’ll feel nearly 100% by game time.

On the other end of the court, Kawhi Leonard is vying for the best basketball player in the world spot. Scoring 26, 41, 36 and 29 points through 4 games, snagging team highs in rebounds in half of those contests and playing shut-down defense, it’s hard to find a better all-around star when Kawhi is determined. At home and with a newly paved path to win this series after tying it up 3 nights ago, I expect a dominant Leonard tonight. Who’s going to stop him? It’s obvious the Mavericks can’t.

I lean Dallas in this contest at +7.5 but the truth is, this has been a volatile matchup with seemingly different teams emerging every time they take the floor. Two of the only things I can count on in this series are great performances from Luka and Kawhi. For a win that would more than double our money, I love this bet.