Well the 76ers collapsed after Embiid went down, which is obviously not something I saw coming, and now Philadelphia is in a bit of a pinch after their display in the second half last night. Simmons can’t make free throws, the front court feels more shallow– they better hope Embiid is back healthy soon. We still earned a 1-1 night with the Jazz covering at Memphis, another impressive win from the NBA’s top team, and we head to Tuesday with a 20-9 record over the last 9 days. Let’s get to today’s picks:

Parlay- Nets win 1Q + 1Q over 59 (1 unit to win 1.67 units): This is a huge line for a playoff game, even if the difference between these two teams is wide and vast. Naturally I’d like to be on Boston but we’ve seen what the Nets can do when they’re in-sync. Instead, I’ll look at a first quarter bet. The Nets should come into this contest full of the same adrenaline and confidence that had them win game four. Despite Boston’s tough-fought win in game three, Brooklyn showed no compassion and no relent in letting the lesser team know just how less talented they are. An offensive display from the big 3 on Sunday helped put 141 points on the scoreboard and ultimately a 15 point margin between them and their foe. Now the Nets head home, hoping to seal the series with a 4th win on Tuesday night. If they blow it, I’ll be shocked.

The first quarter started off slower in the first two games of this series. In games three and four, the Nets and Celtics combined for well over 60 points in the first 12 minutes of play. The more Brooklyn and their big 3 play together, the more rhythm and chemistry they’ll show from the opening tipoff. The energy at the Barclays Center will be bumpin’ and the Nets’ stars are off their biggest combined playoff game yet– Durant had 42, Kyrie had 39 and Harden added 23 in their most recent win. Brooklyn’s recipe for success will be simple: control the pace, create high percentage shots, and overwhelm Boston from the get-go. I’m all over this parlay for a healthy + unit gain.

Nuggets -2 (-110), 1.5 units: I feel pretty strongly that the Nuggets will win tonight but Denver hasn’t always shown their best selves in this series. When Portland is humming on offense, they confuse the Nuggets and make it really hard for them to come back. Denver wins by setting the tone and pace of the game and if they don’t, they’re often in trouble. That being said, this is a much better spot for the Nuggets. Off a bad 20 point loss and returning home, proud after all the adversity they fought through this year, I expect we’ll see the best side of Denver tonight. I think we’ll also see a very efficient Nikola Jokic.

Game four was an ugly game for Denver but we shouldn’t take it too seriously. The talented Nuggets shot a wretched 34% from the field and only 29.5% from beyond the arc. They also had more turnovers, fewer fast break points, and fewer points in the paint than Portland. For a team as big and athletic as Denver (especially compared to Portland), that shouldn’t happen. In addition, Jokic had one of his worst nights to date. The big man was only 7-18 from the field for 16 measly points. Needless to say, the books have his point total as double that amount tonight and for good reason.

I think this is a game where Portland chases, which makes me lean to the total going over, but I can’t take a side on the total since this is a crucial game five. I could see the pace slowing down as the nerves climb and these two teams haven’t exactly lit the court on fire with their tempo so far (they rank second slowest only to Dallas/LAC in postseason pace). Regardless, Denver is comfortable at home (they were 25-11 at Ball Arena in the regular season) and no doubt poised for redemption after that bad showing on Saturday. While I’m sure this one will go down to the wire, I trust Denver to cover the light 2 points and tilt the series in their favor. This is a big game for the Joker and in the Joker we trust!

Suns win first half (-180), 2.5 units and Lakers/Suns over 209 (-110), 1 unit: Two separate bets. Boy oh boy, this is one hell of a series. How quickly things can change in sports, right? One second it looks like the Lakers are marching strong and may end up in another NBA Finals. In games two and three, LAL looked like the vastly bigger, vastly more experienced, and vastly superior team. Anthony Davis and Lebron were on fire and the rest of their skill players followed. Then Anthony Davis took a spill (for like the 1000th time this year) in game four and, again, his knee waved the white flag and wouldn’t you know it– he won’t play in tonight’s crucial game five. Bummer, at least for Lakers fans, but it’s also not the way anyone wants to see the playoffs go down. Embiid left yesterday’s game, Luka has a neck issue, and now Anthony Davis? It sucks. A huge aspect to winning titles is health and luck. If you can maintain your health and you get lucky facing other teams who can’t, suddenly the championship path is less foggy. We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the Lakers’ tumultuous season.

Still, if we learned one thing through the years, it’s to not count out Lebron James. For that simple intangible reason I can’t bet on the Suns -5, it’s damn near over two possessions, but I do lean their side. Phoenix is back at home and it’s a really good thing that Chris Paul looks healthier. Without him they’re not the same team. Just ask Devin Booker. The young star has been a bit volatile through 4 games with his leader fighting injuries but it feels like a huge performance from Booker is looming. This could be the spot. With Ayton playing aggressively and other contributors finding a rhythm at home, I think we’ll see a highly efficient Phoenix offense tonight. Chris Paul and company know that the Lakers’ scoring ability is limited and if they can create margin like they did in game four, they can ride their exceptional defense and sharpshooting roster to another win.

Lebron isn’t his young and spry self anymore and I’m just not sure that he can shoulder a below-average offense like he did in the past. He needs Davis. I expect the Suns to come out confident and with chemistry in the first half and, since I expect them to control the pace of the game, I see the Lakers playing catch-up for 48 minutes. That should result in an inflated total, though I’ll only put 1 unit on it since the under just keeps hitting.

2-1 in the association Sunday; 19-8 over the last 8 days. Hard to beat that! I’m an Air Force veteran who’s lucky to have the time and freedom to bet pro sports and write these articles because of the ultimate sacrifice so many have made to protect this great country. Let’s not forget how good we have it. Happy Memorial Day all!

76ers -8.5 (-115), 1.5 units and Lean under 230 (-110): Of course there are plenty of stats and trends to support the 76ers side today, but I’m on Philly for a different reason. Like the Bucks, the 76ers are angry entering the postseason. Joel Embiid was out for such a long stretch of the season and other key players struggled to stay on the floor. Still, the Sixers maintained their #1 seed atop the Eastern Conference. Entering the playoffs, they’re not the oddsmakers’ choice to make it to the NBA Finals. Despite being a top 5 team in both offense and defense and having three of the best players in the NBA in their starting lineup, it’s the Nets who have the “favorite” designation.

In my opinion, the only thing that’s limited the Sixers in getting to the championship has bene their own chemistry. Some of that is a question of motivation, too. Joel Embiid can be emotional and volatile but this year something’s different. At one point Embiid was favored to win the MVP award and appropriately so. The big man has had a sensational year and if it wasn’t for his injury setbacks, might still be considered the NBA’s best player in 2021. Regardless, Philadelphia seems to be playing their best team basketball in awhile. Harris and Simmons know how talented they are but they also know they’re not the best player on the team. That’s Embiid. Other supporting cast members fit in perfectly, with Curry nailing shots from the outside and other players like Danny Green and Dwight Howard coming off the bench and being nightly difference makers. This is a complete team.

The 76ers, like the Bucks, would love nothing more than to get some extended time off and watch the Eastern Conference playoffs unfold. The Wizards are full of potential, particularly on offense, but they’re no match for the Sixers on both sides of the court. Simmons is too good at limiting Washington’s guard play and Embiid has no issue controlling the front court against a smaller and less talented foe. I expect an early Philly lead to result in another big win and the second series sweep of the NBA postseason. The early domination should lead to a deflating submission from Washington, who never really had a chance to go anywhere after the regular season. I’ll lean to the under because of that game narrative.

Jazz -5 (-115), 2 units: I was able to get this when it was at -5 and now it’s up to -6 at many books. I respect what Memphis has done to get to this spot and especially the way they won game one. That being said, it’s abundantly clear that the Utah Jazz are a significantly better team than the Grizzlies. That’s especially true with Donovan Mitchell back. The 1-2 punch of Mitchell and Gobert with the deep, elite roster that Utah can use on a night to night basis is too much for most NBA teams and it’s why they coasted to the best record of any team this year. I’m sure Ja Morant will have a big game in an effort to keep his team alive, that man’s a gamer, but that’s the only Grizzlies’ bet I would look at tonight. This number is off– the Jazz should be favored by 7-9 points. This number is too good not to take. I’m on Utah to make it 3-1.

What a week it’s been! We went 4-1 yesterday and that brings us to a lovely 17-7 the past 7 days. I’m not a numerology guy but I can’t hate on multiple sevens accompanying my wins. Head down and onto more solid handicapping– happy Sunday!

Knicks/Hawks 1H under 106 (-110), 1.5 units: This should be one of those “all out effort” games for New York so it’s really hard for me to pick a side here. Charles Barkley said it best (actually one of his friends said it but I forget who he was referring to) when he described this series as will vs. talent. It’s so true. The Hawks are clearly the more talented unit– they have better shooters, bigger names, their players are younger and more dynamic, and they have a true star in Trae Young. Of course I said all that BEFORE Charles did but whatever. I also didn’t play in the NBA as one of the premiere power forwards for over a decade so I guess I’ll concede. Anyway, the Knicks could play well over their heads here but we’re starting to see the better teams emerge. It’s hard for me to say confidently that the Hawks are that much better, since I still give the Knicks the edge on defense, but the point is I can’t take a side. The safest bet is probably the ATL moneyline, which will be a parlay leg for me today.

When New York plays their heart out and they’re in a desperate spot, it shows through their defense. Atlanta had their homecoming and the proceeding big win by margin they were looking for. This one should feel different, at least for a half. As usual, I expect a scrappy, testy, competitive defensive battle for the first 24 minutes. None of the last three games has eclipsed 102 points in the first half and this contest could be the most contentious yet. I’ll take the first half under for 1.5 units; the full game scares me if ATL’s offense explodes and takes the lead in the second half as the books expect.

Lakers -6.5 (-110), 2 units: This is a really simple handicap, maybe I’m oversimplifying, but so be it. We’ve seen this story before. King James and the Lakers are having fun, Anthony Davis is laser focused, and LA’s supporting cast is showing they know how to contribute best for their team to win. Schroder is playing really well, the bigs are coming off the bench and sharking the front court with veteran expertise, and other names like Kuzma and Caruso are doing their part even when they’re not scoring.

Oh and Chris Paul still isn’t himself.

That’s not a good combination for the Suns. The only chance Phoenix ever had was in a healthy Chris Paul to facilitate and lead his team and that prospective is looking more and more grim. Devin Booker scoring 50+ a game would help but the Lakers have showed they can limit him, too. Especially when Anthony Davis plays this aggressively, it takes pressure off Lebron to do everything for his team. Last year’s champs are at home, poised, and really starting to hum. If this was a young inexperienced unit I might be on the Suns to cover today, but they’re not. The Lakers’ players and staff are ultra-experienced and they’ve found the recipe to win. It’s the same old story, I know. And it’s probably boring and frustrating to see LAL keep winning, I know. But this isn’t about heart or soul or who we want to win, it’s about what we observe and how we can beat the books. I think the Lakers take a firm hold on this series and beat Phoenix by margin once again.

Nets -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: What happened in game three? Durant and Harden had huge games (39 and 41 points, respectively), but the Nets lost? How? I’ll tell you how– because the other Nets’ players didn’t do much at all. Starters’ Kyrie Irving, Joe Harris and Blake Griffin went for a combined 10-31 from the field for only 28 points. Other players off the bench? Only 11 total points. Yea, that’s not going to work.

Brooklyn also lost their edge on defense. They allowed Boston to shoot 50.6% from the field and 41% from beyond the arc, not to mention permitting a huge game for Tatum who scored 50 points all by himself. Nice let-down game there, Brooklyn. Game four just became even more crucial.

The last thing Brooklyn wants to do is allow the Celtics to gain momentum and confidence. The Nets play their best when their stars are executing and everyone is contributing. At the end of the day, this is still a team game and it requires a full team effort to win. In games one and two, where Brooklyn played with a “let’s show the world” chip on their shoulder, you saw the result. Expect that Nets team to come out today and overwhelm the Celtics. Boston has the home court advantage and it’ll make a difference in segments of this game, but the Nets have too much experience and talent to not pull away. And Tatum, as we’ve seen, tends to regress after having a huge game. I’m on the Nets to cover.

Lean, Clippers/Mavericks over 221 (-110): This series is a little too volatile for me to play anything on it tonight. In other words, it’s a pure “watch and analyze game” for me. If I would bet on any angle, though, it would be game over 221 points. This matchup has been and will continue to be all about the stars. Kawhi, George, Doncic, Porzingis — the big names have continued to provide big performances. Look for player point-props and look for the stars to keep scoring and driving this total up.

We were 4 points away from the Bogdanovic bet hitting and 2 points away from the Dallas team total bet hitting, but a 2-2 Friday isn’t bad considering our showing this week. We’re 13-6 heading into Saturday, let’s get it!

Giannis under 47.5 Points/Assists/Rebounds (-114), 1.14 units: I’ll avoid taking a side here and instead look at Giannis’ chances at a triple double. I respect the hell of out the Miami Heat and I’m sure they have plenty of fight left, but so far it hasn’t looked like they can compete with this fired up Bucks team. Giannis is doing his part, and more importantly his supporting cast is doing theirs. Milwaukee is upping the pace on offense and clamping down on defense, showing how complete a team they can be when everyone’s healthy and motivated.

The game four narrative should go one of two ways: 1) The Bucks continue to romp the Heat and gain margin quickly just like they have in the previous 2 games. Milwaukee crushed the Heat by 29 points in game three and 34 points in game two. I think this is still the likeliest outcome. Or 2) The Heat are feisty like they were in game one and this is a slow moving, hard fought defensive battle. Remember, even in OT, game one only made it to 216 total points. That’s what happens in games where Miami is efficient. In either narrative, I think that favors an under bet on Giannis’ production.

There are no new schemes or approaches that can stop the Bucks other than the obvious– limit Giannis and hope that his supporting cast can’t hold up the team. So far the Heat haven’t done too well at stopping the Greek-freak or stopping his teammates, but Giannis hasn’t had one of those out-of-control explosive games just yet. The Heat are capable of keeping him at bay at least for one half. If the Bucks go off, I could see Giannis sitting in the 4th quarter while Milwaukee rides a big lead into a 4-0 series win. Either way, I like Giannis’ P/A/R total under.

Nuggets +4.5 (-110), 1 unit and Nuggets/Blazers under 227.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Nuggets just keep getting disrespected and I have to take these lines. My first thought after nailing the outcome of game three was that I would take the Blazers today, but taking them as a -4.5 favorite? No thanks. The line makes sense– the books projected Portland as the series favorite and they’re at home and down 2-1 in this series– it’s desperation time for Damian Lillard and his team.

Still, as I’ve said many times before and I’ll say it again, I’m on Denver’s side because I think they’re the better team. It’s that simple. They’ve also showed how poised and effective they can be in bad spots all season. It’s why they kept the #3 seed. This is a prime spot for the Blazers at home in what feels like a must-win since the series goes back to Denver for game five. Because of that, this is just a humble 1 unit play.

I like the under a little more. The Nuggets and Blazers scored a ridiculous 53 points in the final 6 minutes of Thursday’s game. Usually when a bevvy of points comes out like that at the end of a quarter or contest, it has the opposite effect in the proceeding quarters. In other words, we expect negative regression back to the mean. Both of these units need to do a better job at limiting the sharpshooters and skill players on the opposing offense. And in truth, both of these teams have been ridiculously proficient from the field. Lillard and Jokic in particular have been damn near unstoppable. In a game that should be heated and contentious in a crucial game four, the under feels right to me.

76ers over 115.5 points (-115), 2 units: This is up to 116.5 at some books and was down to 115 yesterday. I snagged 115.5. I get the perspective of the oddsmakers here. Washington is at home and needs to avoid a game three loss. If they don’t win game three the series is virtually over. We’ve seen (not often) the Wizards put together some decent defensive performances when they needed it in the play-in tournament and late in the regular season. Knowing all that, you can’t put the Philly team total near 120– it feels too high. You also can’t put it closer to 110– this is still a bad Wizards defense against one of the best offenses in the league.

I don’t have to tell my sharp readers this but I’ll type it out anyway– winning in sports betting, especially long term, is often less about the teams you’re betting on and more about the number itself. Philadelphia has easily eclipsed a 115.5 total twice in this series and, despite how critical this game is, the Wizards still have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. That’s why 115.5 feels low. We’ve also received no evidence that the Wizards can come close to stopping a fully healthy Sixers team. In two games we’ve seen Philadelphia’s prowess both on offense and on defense, limiting the Wizards’ stars and flexing an assortment of scoring talent. Seth Curry might be limited in today’s game but that doesn’t take too much away from the Sixers scoring ability. Tobias Harris should be good to go.

I want to bet on Philly -6.5 here. Russel Westbrook should be limited after rolling his ankle in game two so another blowout win for the favorite could very well occur. Still, like we saw in the Nets/Celtics game last night, this is a huge game for Washington at home and I could see them playing way over their head and covering this line. Since the only way Washington knows how to win is by looking for fast-break opportunities and pushing the pace, I think the Sixers will take advantage like we saw in game one and have a ton of offensive success. Best bet for me– team total over on Philly.

Check out my Twitter account for my final NBA bet: I’m giving out my premium picks free today for everyone. I’ll post my play on the Jazz vs. Grizzlies after I post this article.