We continue to cruise this week in NBA Playoff betting, hitting 11 out of 15 picks so far. Hell of a week but we’re not done yet. Today presents a tougher than usual slate of games to handicap and choose a side– let’s try to keep this train chugging along, choo choo!!

Hawks -4 (-115), 1.5 units and Bogdanovic over 18.5 points (-108), 1 unit: I don’t want to choose the Hawks’ side, trust me. Madison Square Garden was absolutely electric 2 nights ago when the Knicks were able to overcome very poor shooting and sloppy offense in the first half to come back and snag a win. With all the COVID-caused disappointments this past year, I don’t remember the last time I felt that sort of jubilation watching sports. I’m not a Knicks fan but they’re a really tough team to not cheer for. They’re without ego, dying to win and prove they’re among the best, and they’re full of workaholics that take on Julius Randle’s blue-collar mentality.

But let’s be honest– besides the exciting environment Wednesday when the home team came back, did it really feel like the Knicks were the better team? To me it didn’t. As happy as I was to see them win and cash our bet, it felt like the MSG crowd fueled that win. In that way it was really the first time I truly felt the advantage of a home court since fans were welcomed back. That unadulterated support that filled New York City won’t carry to Atlanta and I think that’ll make a big difference tonight.

When you watch these two teams compete, it’s clear who should win. The Hawks are just a way better offensive team. While I still hold onto my perspective that nothing really jumps off the page when you watch Atlanta–they’re just a solid overall team–they do have considerably better shooting talent than New York. One big reason why Atlanta ended up losing is because one of their most potent offensive scorers, Bogdan Bogdanovic, went ice cold in the second half. When the team needed him to nail that long range shot and bring them back within distance, he missed opportunity after opportunity. The Serbian sharpshooter shot a poor 2-13 from beyond the arc, finishing 8-21 from the field and with just 18 points. I think it’s fair to say the MSG crowd had an effect, and I also think it’s fair to assume he’ll have a better night tonight. Bogdan in the 20s feels right. Trae Young had a great game but he can’t do it alone. Collins and Capela combined for only 4 points and DeAndre Hunter went 3-10 from the field. Positive regression is coming for this offense, despite how good New York is at limiting easy shots.

When the Knicks struggle on the offensive end, which happens more often than we want to admit, it’s not a good look. I don’t think they’ll fare very well Friday. Atlanta can play really solid defense and I expect them to shoot more freely and with significantly more precision in game three. This line is up to -5 at most books but may move back down. If you like the Hawks then maybe wait and see if it does. I still like them at -5 but if you can snag the line at -4 (like I did last night, and which you should get in the habit of doing!), I say do it.

Lean Nets -8 (-110): This line is up to -8.5 now and how could you disagree with it? I won’t make a play here– if there’s any game that Boston will get up for it’s this one– but the disparity between these two teams has been silly. Like the re-burgeoning Lakers in the West, Brooklyn looks like they have plenty of chemistry despite their big 3 stars not playing together very often. That should terrify every team in the Eastern Conference. Not only do the Celtics not have chemistry but they’re overly dependent on a player who’s not ready to bloom. Jayson Tatum is a gifted talent but he hasn’t shown the grit or gusto a star needs to overcome the adversity before him. Of course it shouldn’t be all on him, but Jaylen Brown’s injury and Kemba Walker’s limitations put Tatum in this position. If you like the Celtics to be feisty tonight, I would look at a Tatum points-prop over (29.5 at -115). The best bet here is probably still the Nets at -8.

Clippers win (-135), 1.5 units and Mavericks over 109.5 points (even), 2 units: If LAC fails to step up tonight, I think it’s fair to say this is the last time I’ll stick my neck out for the fledgling Clippers. I’ve said over and over again in my previous articles and I’m sticking to it– the Clippers are, on paper, a considerably better team than the Mavericks. But I reckon “paper” doesn’t matter much in the postseason; certainly not when you have a dynamic player like Luke Doncic on the opposing team. In game one, Luka scored 31 points and had 10 rebounds and 11 assists. In game two, Luka scored 39 points and had 7 rebounds and 7 assists.  Well shit, what will Luka do in game three? AT HOME?

That should be the Clippers main concern. The morning after their most recent loss, after going down 0-2, Paul George was quoted saying “we’re not concerned.” I get the whole Joe-cool game there Paulie but maybe it’s time to up your intensity a tad. Do you think Kobe and MJ and Iverson and Lebron and Shaq and Malone and Magic (need I go on?) wouldn’t be “concerned” if they went down 0-2 in the playoffs? I’m thinking they would, but I know– that’s like comparing a steak to a brussels sprout– not quite the same character. Someone on this Clippers needs to step up and become not only a voice of motivation but a commandant for this team. That probably should be Kawhi, but he’s quiet. Maybe it should be George? Na, I think we just covered that. Beverly is kind of crazy. Ibaka is too humble and seems shy. I don’t know who the hell it’s going to be but if I were a Clippers fan I’d be losing my mind right now. The Mavericks are an above-average team in talent and in-depth but what’s making the difference in this series is their chemistry and poise. LAC is lacking in those areas, tremendously.

These two bets act as a hedge of sorts although both could easily hit. The Mavericks eclipsed 110 points twice in this series and now they’re at home with a supportive crowd behind their buckets. Advantage– Dallas offense. On the season the Clippers have proven to be an exceptional defense but they haven’t had an answer for the Mavs so far and it’ll be even more difficult on the road. While I think LAC is the more desperate team and will figure out a way to win, I expect the Mavericks to get theirs in what should be an entertaining game three. If this game ends in a score like 108-104 Dallas, I’m probably done betting this series (ha).

Yet another winning night (no, I don’t get sick of saying it), going 2-1 in my picks Wednesday at TheOddsBreakers. The Wizards/76ers full game total probably should have went over but the pace and production significantly decreased in the second half because of Philly’s big lead. We’re 9-3 this week! Onto Thursday:

Heat win (+110), 1 unit: We’re not surprised by what happened in game two. We saw it coming for Milwaukee– the Bucks are kinda pissed. Entering at the 3rd seed, which they’re not used to, and finishing up their season with some tumultuous injuries and volatile performances, Milwaukee has started these NBA playoffs in overwhelming fashion. While the first game of the series was a tough-fought battle that nearly went Miami’s way, the second contest was anything but.

The Bucks stomped the Heat in game two, opening up with a 46-20 first quarter and never laying off the gas, ultimately winning by a margin of 34 points. The Greek-freak had his way with the opposition too, securing 31 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists in the process. Don’t be too unsettled by that, though. Giannis and company were at home, where they love to play fast, and the Heat were fresh off a really tough game one where they exerted a week’s worth of energy.

As dominant as Milwaukee looked in game two, the Heat looked exhausted. They were out-rebounded 61-36, out-assisted (out-assisted?… that doesn’t sound like English) 34-20, only shot 40% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc, and never held a lead. The Bucks are a really good team capable of making it to the finals, but the Heat aren’t that far below them. I think tonight will look and feel very differently at American Airlines Arena.

The books are daring us to take the Bucks side here as this number sits at the always strange NBA line of -1.5. Miami has had a full 2.5 days to rest and their home crowd, who was never able to cheer on their Cinderella-team in the postseason last year, will be absolutely rocking. Expect the Heat to apply suffocating defense and limit Giannis’ output tonight. The former MVP doesn’t play as well under pressure– Give me the HEAT.

P.S. The Heat are 40-32 at home and the Bucks are one of the worst away teams in the NBA, covering at a rate of only 38.9% (14-22). The only team that’s worse? The Cavs.

Suns/Lakers under 212 (-110), 1.5 units and Lean, Lakers -7 (-110): The Suns and Lakers had an abnormally high scoring 4th quarter that created a push on the total 2 nights ago but in actuality, the under should have hit. Some of these NBA playoff games are about nerves and atypical shooting percentages just because of the playoff pressure. Some of that has to do with these low Suns/Lakers totals but more of it is because of how exceptional both teams are on defense. The Lakers are huge compared to Phoenix, towering over them at virtually every position, while the Suns play really scrappy and pestering defense that throws off the average shooters of LAL. The Lakers are built to dominate games with high-percentage shots and rapid-fire ball movement. The way the Suns adjust and relentlessly double-team makes them built to limit the Lakers just as much as the Lakers are built to limit Phoenix. Overall, LAL and Phoenix are still the slowest teams so far in the postseason at only 92 possessions. I don’t see much changing so I’ll jump on another under play. For me it’s the only good look in this contest.

I’ll lean Lakers -7 and most of that is because of Chris Paul’s ailments. The veteran guard and clear leader of the Suns is a vital piece of their success but he’s been nursing a shoulder injury since a bad fall in game one. We talked about it a lot this year– the Suns are the same exact team as last year, + Chris Paul. Paul was the extra talent and leader they needed to facilitate all of Phoenix’s young potential. Now, after an impressive 2nd half and game two win from the Lakers, they travel back home to the Staples Center where they’ll be more comfortable and more poised to take on the world. I can’t look the Suns way here– it’s Lakers -7 or nothing for me.

Remember when the playoff series line moved to -110 for both teams a few days ago? Same. I hope you took advantage of that opportunity and bet on LAL. I’d be shocked if they don’t knock out Phoenix.

Nuggets +4 (-110), 2 units: Point blank– I think the wrong team is favored here. I realize the Blazers are at home tonight and Damian Lillard is in front of his home crowd– rut row… But were we all watching the same game 3 nights ago? Were the sportsbooks watching? Check out the game-flow visual on ESPN and you’ll see that Denver controlled the entire contest. After making some adjustments in game one, adjustments we anticipated in our write-up here, the Nuggets had no problem sustaining a big lead over Portland for 48 minutes. The Blazers even out-rebounded and out-shot the Nuggets from beyond the arc and still lost by nearly 20 points.

The Blazers are a better all-around unit than people give them credit for but that doesn’t mean they’re not still overly dependent on Lillard. They are. Dame-time is the only player on Portland, maybe besides Carmelo, who has that dawg mentality and thrives under pressure. McCollum and Kanter and Covington have their moments, but the team looks to Lillard to lift them up and they look his way too often. For example: Damian was 8-10 from 3-point land in the first half Monday night. That’s incredible. Do you know what the score was at the end of the half? 73-61, Denver. It didn’t matter how well Lillard played. The Lillard-centric design to their offense and the fact that Lillard doesn’t exactly care about facilitating others creates a team that’s handicapped on the offensive end.

Jokic and the Nuggets aren’t built that way. The big man loves to score and control games but he’s just as adept at passing the ball around and raising up others. He’s also very underrated on defense. The Nuggets played a very complete game 3 nights ago. Gordon had 13, Porter had 18, Campazzo had 12, Rivers had 9, Millsap was more involved and had 15, Morris had 12, and the MVP-front runner Joker-man had 38.

This is worth a moneyline sprinkle but I love getting 4 points. Denver figured out a recipe to beat Portland and I think they stick to it tonight. The Blazers aren’t built, at least from my purview, to make the same adjustments against a complete team like the Nuggets.

Parlay opportunity: Not an official bet, but a Heat/Nuggets ML combo pays over +400 at most books. Not a bad pay day for a very possible result.

Another winning night as we went 2-1 overall, leading us to 7-2 over the last 3 days. Solid handicapping usually means that after a slump, positive regression is peeking around the corner. It’s arrived for us and we hope for more tonight! Here are my picks:

Wizards/Sixers 1Q over 58.5 (-110) 1.5 units and Wizards/Sixers full game over 229 (-115), 1.5 units: The Wizards and the Sixers played at the quickest pace of any two NBA teams in their first contest. At 101.5 possessions, which is actually below Washington’s average on the season, game one featured a ton of exceptional offense and 2 quarters that came very close to 70 points. Normally, especially after adjustments are made in the postseason, you expect some things to change in the proceeding games. I don’t expect much to be different tonight.

Philadelphia seemed content playing fast. Doc Rivers may not love a lightning tempo but his team can struggle from the field when they’re out of rhythm. That didn’t happen Sunday and I expect them to keep welcoming the Wizards’ style. Washington is a much more volatile offensive team, with big upswings and downswings in scoring. As long as the Sixers can limit the Wizards fast-break opportunities, which they did a pretty good of in game one, Philadelphia can still control the momentum.

Game one was played well by both teams and their stats are shockingly similar in a ton of categories. Still, the Sixers are deserving of their 8 point line tonight. Their ability to command and maintain the lead in the 4th quarter is something great teams do and it’s enough to keep me away from choosing a side Wednesday. The Wizards could easily cover this line but Philly can just as easily pull away.

The Wizards’ only chance to beat Philly is to outrun them. If they can’t outrun them, they’ll still keep running. If they get way behind, they’ll chase. All the narratives seem to support a game that cultivates plenty of points and it’s the play I like most in this contest. I’m on the over in the first quarter too, since game one started slow and I expect some of that fast-paced momentum to carry over into tonight.

Knicks win (-130), 2 units: This is my play of the night (which, for all the trolls out there, doesn’t mean it’s a “lock” or “guarantee”– there’s no such thing, folks). Let’s not forget who the Knicks have been all season and what they’ve shown us all year. They’ve been criticized and doubted and they kept crawling back. Big wins against teams like the Clippers, Lakers, and Bucks came at moments that no one expected. Long winning streaks and superb effort on both ends of the court led to the Knicks becoming the ATS leader for most of the final weeks of the regular season, winning 16 of their last 20 games. They were also 3-0 against the Hawks, and Julius Randle had two huge games against them where he scored 40 and 44 points.

That wasn’t the Randle we saw in game one. Julius was an atrocious 6-23 from the field and only secured 15 points Sunday. Like Anthony Davis last night (which we capitalized on as a premium pick for my subscribers), I expect different results from Julius Randle Wednesday (and I’d look at his player props if I were you). Unlike Anthony Davis, Randle doesn’t need a bad game to motivate him. He’s always motivated. Randle is the type of player who goes to the gym at 3am and gets in reps even after he has an MVP performance. Expect the Knicks to feature him early and often.

The same can be said for other Knicks’ starters. Derrick Rose had a decent game but RJ Barrett needs to step it up. He’s young and I’m sure he’s nervous but that’s what separates the great from the good– playing well under pressure. Trae Young didn’t seem nervous. While Trae was nailing outside shots and getting to the foul line, RJ Barrett was 1-6 from beyond the arc and only 5-16 from the field for 14 points. The Knicks’ other starters, Payton, Bullock and Noel, only managed 12 combined points. Not good enough.

If you’re an Atlanta fan you’ll probably hate this post. I recognize how solid of a team the Hawks are, but they’re also a very predictable team. They’re well-coached, good (not great) on both sides of the court and they’ll almost always beat a team that has a bad night (as we saw in game one). Madison Square Garden was rocking Sunday, which is something even the Knicks need to adjust to, and I imagine the home-town crowd won’t be any less forgiving to Atlanta tonight. I expect significant positive regression from New York’s skill players combined with another solid defensive effort to equal a win before this series goes to Atlanta. The Knicks are too battle-tested and too close-knit a team to let another game slip away at home.

Lean Jazz -9.5 (-110): I can’t bet this game. The Grizzlies and Jazz series may have the most volatility of any matchup in the early going. It shouldn’t– the Jazz are the way better team– but Donovan Mitchell’s absence is starting to hurt Utah and Memphis is playing a bit over their head. While I’m sure they’ll be competitive tonight, I have to lean to the team I saw out-class every NBA team all year. If Mitchell returns, a mountain of motivation for a Jazz team that dropped game one could mean an epic blowout tonight. It’s a watch and see game for me, but I’ll lean the Jazz at a big number.