The Public Dog expresses his frustration with the NFL and proposes 3 rule changes that would make the league great again. Catches, Forward Fumbles, Pass Interference. We then get into some picks, game break down, and sharp line movements.
NCAA – Memphis vs Tulsa – Navy vs Temple – Clemson vs NC State – Maryland vs Rutgers – Oklahoma vs Oklahoma state – Penn state vs Michigan state – Syracuse vs Florida State – Northwestern vs Nebraska – Central Florida vs SMU – Virginia Tech vs Miami – Iowa state vs West Virginia – Ohio state vs Iowa – Wisconsin vs Indiana
NFL – Bengals vs Jaguars – Cardinals vs 49ers and teasers
What a great week of games! Some upsets! Some undefeated teams go down!
We had a good week hitting our top bets and finished 8-7. Huge finish at the end of the night with USC, San Diego state and over Arizona all hitting easily. 76-66-2 Overall for the year. We also stated college basketball research and it is going to be a fun season. We will be talking and tweeting about sharp movements as usual as well as a few plays each week.
Florida State vs Boston College – What a blow out. What does this say about the Alabama Florida State win?? Serious questions when it comes to the playoff rankings. This goes to show you that sometimes when you handicap you need to look at what they have done recently. They are lower in power ratings because that looks at the total body of work rather than the recent. This is why Florida State was favored by over 6!! Boston College is at least 15 points better in the Power ratings than they were 1 month ago! I think it is important to cover some teams that vastly improved. This is also important in Basketball by the way!
Teams that improved!
Oregon State, Boston College, Arizona, Arizona State, Michigan State, Iowa State, Florida Atlantic, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Ohio State, . Who are the next teams? Not sure if Vegas sees Oregon State as improved yet but we sure do.
Wisconsin vs Illinois – This game gave me Leprocy. And i apologize for anyone out there that may have or know someone who is a Leper. Alex Hornibrook made his interception quota. The Badgers really treated this like a Bye week. Rested some key players like Dixon and loudermilk. Jonathan Taylor had a slight ankle and sat out the second half. It is true that the Badgers are over rated. Or at least over ranked. They are a top 12 team but not a top 5 team.
Texas vs Baylor – Baylor looked much worse this week. Lots of credit to texas for getting past this tough spot in fashion. Baylor ran for a total of 31 yards. You won’t beat anybody doing that.
Ok State vs West Virginia – Alex Grier may have to start his own Youtube Channel like his little brother if he keeps throwing 4 picks like that. Total gunslinger. Some passes looked good yet some looked awful. The sharps did well on this bet. We had the over as a personal play.
Louisville – Wake forest – Louisvile……..
NC State vs Notre Dame – What an awful awful game. Chalked full of penalties. Some injuries. NC State is not a team built to come back from losing. They do not have enough fire power especially when it comes to away games. Josh Adams from Notre Dame had 202 yards rushing. Whimbush didn’t have to do to much here. He only threw for an easy 104 yards and 2 TDs. They played a smart game and I have to give credit to Brian Kelly.
Ohio State vs Penn State – What a game. Who ever scheduled Michigan, Ohio state and Mich State in a row for Penn State should be highly scrutinized. Penn state jumped them in the beginning but Ohio state started winning in the trenches. Penn State completely ran out of gas in 4th quarter. Saquon Barkley had only 44 yards rushing on 21 carries. That is not heisman material. Maybe it had to do with their Michigan game last week but you have to give credit to JT Barrett for the comeback. This was the best game I have ever seen him play throwing for 328 yards, 4 touchdowns and rushing for 95 yards. I still think they could be another loss looming somewhere for 1 or both of these teams before the bowl season starts.
Cal vs Colorado – Lets face it, Cal is a terrible away team and a good home team. I thought 3 and the hook was going to be enough. I was wrong there for sure. I think they are like a 6 power ranking when at home and a -4 on the road. Gonna keep that in mind for sure here on out.
WaSu vs Arizona – We nailed this one. It was our biggest bet this week. Total went to 95 points when it opened at 61. A huge inefficiency in the market here. Of course looking back you wish you bet even more but this game made me happy. Luke Faulk was benched this game for Tyler Hilinksi. Hilinski threw for 500 yards but it wasn’t enough when you let Arizona run for 310 yards!!! Arizona will be ranked this week but the sad thing is that now there is only 1, one loss team left in the Pac 12. Washington is their hope to make it to the playoffs.
TCU vs Iowa State – Did we say that the big 12 will beat each other up? I believe so. Now we don’t have an undefeated team in that conference with 4 games to go. This conference will be lucky to get by with only 1 loss. Just like we said before, the teams in the big 12 may take each other all of out playoff contention especially with teams like Notre Dame doing well. A 1 loss big 12 I think makes it this year thanks to Ohio State losing to Oklahoma. This game was all about defense. TCU actually outgained Iowa State by 50 yards or so but the 3 tournovers lost it for them..
USC vs ASU – Finally talent outweighs momentum. USC was in a tough spot and played like they should have played. Sam Darnold had 2 tds in this game. ASU could not stop the run as predicted allowing 341 rushing yards. They will be a disrupter in the Pac 12.
Let down spots –
Houston @ East Carolina – Houston took out USF
Ohio State @ Iowa
Iowa State @ West Virginia
Notre Dame @ Wake forest a kinda let down spot but may look more at the under
Look ahead Spots –
Ohio state could be in a sandwich spot looking to Michigan state past Iowa
Stanford looking past @washington state to Washington
Washington looking past Oregon to Stanford
Clemson looking to florida State??? WRONG
Notre Dame looking past wake forest to Miami
Miami looking past Va Tech to Notre Dame?? Kinda doubt it
Iowa state sandwich spot looking past West Virginia to Oklahoma state
The Public Dog went 8-7 last week. 76-66-2 Overall. In this episode we break down week 9’s huge college football games, let down spots, look ahead spots, teams that improved, teams on Tilt, and of course our new Big 10 power ratings. D-Nasty is back to go over Fantasy Football week 9 waiver wire, key Injuries and break out players!
Penn State reminds us a lot like a old movie that we all love.
The Public Dog covers this week’s great games and goes over sharp line movements and sharp sides.
Penn State vs Ohio State – NC State vs Notre Dame – Toledo vs Ball State – San Jose State vs BYU – Louisville vs Wake Forest – Texas vs Baylor – Wisconsin vs Illinois – Wake forest vs Louisville – Cal vs Colorado – Nebraska vs Purdue – USC vs Arizona St – Washington State vs Arizona –
Cub Fan Danny is back with some of his picks in the NFL
Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks – Colts vs Bengals – Carolina vs Tampa bay – Dolphins vs Ravens – Pittsburgh vs Detroit – Denver vs Kansas City – Falcons vs Jets
Bad week for the Sharps! Lots of let down spots didn’t hit at all!! Boston College, ASU, CAL, Syracuse etc…
We were 8-9, hits some big bets but lost some big ones
68-59-2 overall.
Memphis vs Houston – Memphis really tried to lose this game. To huge tournovers in the first quarter and losing 14-0. Houston really could not be stopped until the end of the game. This game went way over the total by some 20 points. Riley Ferguson had 471 yards. That is the story of this game. There will be value on Houston next week
The Home dogs were barking on Friday Night! Old Dominion, Nevada and New Mexico all covered. That is why it is smart to look at the home dog on a big night game.
Purdon’t vs Rutgers – Ya almost had it. Y almost had it. Ah you lost. it. Looks like Rutgers is back to being a team to look at. That is 2 bad losses in a row for Purdon’t
Maryland vs Wisconsin – Well Wisconsin Rolled and covered at the end. Could have had a TD if they wanted… Maryland played pretty good. Wisconsin had 224 yards rushing but Taylor had only 124. I expected 200 from him. Hornibrook had 225 yards and 2 TDS. the nice thing about Wisconsin is that when their running game isn’t going they do have a pretty good passing game minus the tournovers. Wisconsin is a complete team that is not great but Very good at all facets of the game.
Ok State vs Texas – A lot more defense from both teams than expected. Overtime game… Texas litterally blew this game. Down by 3 in overtime Touchdown wins it. Sam Elinger throws an awful interception when he easily could have thrown the ball away on 2nd down. Just a bad decision and I felt bad for the kid. he is young and will have many more opportunities though. I wouldn’t feel sorry if that happened to a pro though. My rule of thumb is never feel sorry for people who make WAYYYYY more money than you for sports mistakes and losses.
UCF vs Navy – I don’t think the officials know how to call pick plays and Holding in the American Athletic Conference.
Arizona State vs Utah – ASU also failed to realize the let down spot. Huge win for them at Utah. Todd Graham’s Job seems safe after these last 2 weeks. There will be no value on ASU next week…
Syracuse vs Miami – Miami only won this game due to the 4 tournovers in the first half from Syracuse. Miami is a good team but not a top 10 team… They are still a fade team from here on out.
USC vs Notre Dame – Don’t you love night games. Although, this really was never a game. The pack 12 is in over rated ville especially because of Stanford’s Loss to San Diego State. They may not make the playoffs. Not looking good.
Michigan vs Penn State – Penn State started out hot this game. Michigan actually showed some great handling of Adversity here. This isn’t a good sign for Wisconsin. One thing is for sure. Penn State’s defense is WAY better than most people thought and that is why I had them higher than Ohio State in the Power ratings all year.
Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech – Didn’t get to watch a ton of this game because of the Notre Dame/USC and the Michigan/Penn State game. All i have to say as pretty pathetic that Wake Forest can’t handle the Triple Option.
WaSu took care of business in the rain at home.
Potential let down spots: Not many, no huge upsets:
Penn State at Ohio state. I kinda doubt Penn State will let down here. Huge game
Notre Dame vs NC State – Will Notre Dame let down???
Louisville vs Wake Forest – This should be a let down spot we look at after beating Florida State.
Look Ahead Spots:
NC State vs Notre Dame looking to Clemson?
Miami vs North Carolina looking to Va Tech?
Va Tech vs Duke looking to Miami
Oklahoma vs OK State – Ok State could look past West Virginia while Oklahoma looks past Texas Tech. Problem is that these teams can’t afford to look ahead but I will have trouble backing them….
TCU Could be looking past Iowa State to Texas but not likely.
In this Episode we recap week 8 of college football. We also as usual go over Let down and look ahead spots for next week and of course the Big 10 Power Ratings. D-Nasty comes on an goes over Fantasy Football injuries, waiver wire targets and break out players.
The odds breakers are rolling with more picks and game analysis. We also bring a special NFL guest who has been handicapping a very long time to break down some NFL games.
College Football – Memphis vs Houston – USC vs Notre Dame – Indiana vs Michigan State – Kansas vs TCU – Michigan vs Penn State – Iowa State vs Texas Tech and many more!
NFL – Falcons vs Patriots – Cowboys vs Niners – Kansas City vs Oakland – Saints vs Packers – Seahawks vs Giants and more!
Glad we weren’t on these teams – Clemson – Washington – Washington State – Auburn – San Diego St – Texas Tech – Navy – Troy. Huge shake up in college football and the playoffs. These teams may need to win out most likely but since there is so many 1 loss teams after week 7, a 2 loss team could possibly make it in. Like if Ohio state loses a close one to Michigan and dominates Penn State and Wisconsin they could be in depending on Georgia, and If Penn state loses to Michigan. If Georgia loses to Auburn but almost beats bama… Those kind of scenarios. The only lock as of right now is Alabama. The good news for us is that there will be some value on some of these teams going forward.
Great week for the odds breakers. 13-5
61-51-2 over all.
South Alabama vs Troy – Huge let down spot for Troy and it hit them hard. 19 point spread. This is the reason why we have to watch these spots.
Clemson vs Syracuse – Huge win for us. Spread and Money line sprinkle paid 14-1 making it a good treat. Another let down and bad spot for Clemson. Eric Dungy passed for 279 yards and 3 Touchdowns. Kelly Bryant should have NEVER started this game. It was obvious from the start that Clemson wasn’t motivated here… Syracuse did play a very sloppy game giving up field position left and right. Remember Chris Slayton number 95 from Syracuse. He is a beast of a 3 Technique. He will be a pro…
WaSu vs Cal – What can i say. A great spot for Justin Wilcox to upset a top 10 team. Unfortunately he did it a little too well and screwed up our over under bet of 53. All Wasu had to score was 17 points and we hit it… Kind of a bad beat when they were averaging 40 some points per game before!!! At least we played the spread but this was a total beat down.
Michigan vs Indiana- This game was won in the trenches for Michigan. We definitely got lucky winning the over which make it a good treat. Indiana tied the game with some desperation plays. I didn’t agree with the Onside kick there though. Had plenty of time to stop Michigan and maybe could have started that last minute with good field position.
Miami vs Georgia Tech – The monsoon here really helped the under. Questionable bet for me. You notice G tech unders are always like 52 or 53? Got burned by them that OT game vs Tennessee. Damn Butch Davis. Oh well. He definitley made it back for me .
Kansas vs Iowa state – Apparently Iowa state didn’t get the memo that this was a let down spot. Whats up with that? Since the Texas loss they look like a different team. I do not see much value on them going forward. Let’s just hope they keep it up in that messy big 12
Rutgers vs Illinois – Rutgers win and ML was a good treat. Seriously how was Illinois favored here? A better game than one would have thought. All this game proved was that Illinois is the worst team in the big 10 and then some.
TCU vs Kansas State – you gotta give TCU some credit here for winning by 20 in Manhatten. Huge for them but still have some very tough opponents ahead.
Purdue vs Wisconsin – We are very lucky that they survived upset week. Our badgers didn’t play well on offense but even worse they were out coached. The score was very misleading because the Badgers had 494 total yards while Purdue had 221. Bad turnovers and bad play calls. I don’t understand why Hornibrook didn’t autible out that 22 blast play against 11 in the box!!!! The badgers are lucky to win that game and definitely need some better play calls. The offense better be buying the defense dinner after that debacle.
Auburn vs LSU – LSU has really stepped up after their Troy embarrassment. I think Pettaway was still injured because Kerryon Johnson got all the carries and 156 yards. Auburn had control of that game and let LSU back into it. The real story is that LSU QB Danny Etling through for over 200 yards and a TD! When does that ever happen. LSU Playing for Ed Orgeron’s job.
East Carolina vs UCF – I cover this cause we bet the overs on E Carolina every week. All i want to say is the UCF is a big time team and should be in the top 15 in my opinion.
Michigan state vs Minnisota – We were happy to get a back door cover here. The gophers have a Quarterback Controversy with Croft and Rhoda. Michigan State is over ranked here in my opinion at 21.
Boise state vs San Diego state – The sharps knew something here. This line was driven down to San Diego state -4.5 Penny only had 53 yards rushing this game on 21 Carries. His Heisman hopes are probably gone now. So is San Diego state’s playoff hopes.
Washington vs ASU – Wow, bad week for Washington teams. Both in top 8 rankings and lost outright. If you were to tell me that Washington and WASU would only score a total combined 10 points vs ASU and Cal, I would have checked you into a mental institution. Gotta give ASU Credit here. They are good at home. What a great home dog. They beat Oregon being a double digit dog as well. Moneyline was like +750. I hope one of YOU listeners had it. I really do.
LET DOWN SPOTS: Long list here
Syracuse vs Miami. Miami did eak out a close game too but only against Georgia Tech. We will probably be on Miami
Arizona vs Cal – This is kind of a let down spot for both teams but more for Cal. TATE is something to be reconned with!!!
Boise state at Wyoming
Arizona State at Utah – Utah lost a heartbreaker
West Virginia at Baylor – Kind of a let down spot. Baylor is awful though.
LSU at Ole Miss – Ole miss is playing better
Boston College Beating Louisville
Look ahead spots:
Oklahoma st to West Virginia? They shouldn’t look past Texas right?
TCU to Iowa State but Kansas really sucks
Penn state vs Michigan to Ohio state? I am not sure here..
ASU looking ahead to USC. Sandwich spot!!!!
Teams on Tilt
Washington, Washington St, San Diego State, Clemson, Maybe Auburn but doubtfully, Texas Tech, and Navy… Maybe some value here
