10-11 last week in College Football, 56-43-1 this season up 16.5 Units. NFL is 13-15 down 1.9 units. @thepublicdog recaps college football week 5. We then go into betting spots for week 6. @dnasty#1 Dnasty then comes in to break down fantasy football week 5! Key injuries, waiver wire, break out players and sleepers of the week!
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Eagles vs. Titans.
Reports out of Nashville is it is flooded with Eagles fan and they getting rowdy. Even saw a post that 175 Eagles fan drank a plane out of liquor. In all seriousness, Jeffrey is expected to play and Ajayi will play. Carson Wentz looked better than expected last week completing 67% of his passes. The strength of the Titans this year is on the ground and that is where the Eagles defense is best this year on average only giving up 61 yards per game. Give me the Birds -3
Seahawks vs. Cardinals.
This is going to be a brutal game to watch as the Cardinals turn to Josh Rosen to see if he can spark life into this team. Arizona offensively has been horrible 32nd is passing yards and rushing. They only 190.3 yards per game total all season. Seattle defense of old isn’t the world beaters from before but still a good defense and should create pressure on Rosen. Russell Wilson is a good quarterback, he is fully aware this is a game they must win after starting 1-2.
Seahawks -3.5
Bengals Vs. Falcons
Strap in for this one as we are about to see some points. Looking at the injury report I feel like the entire secondary for both teams is on it. Without Joe Mixon, Andy Dalton is going to look to spread the ball around on offense to Green, Eifert, Boyd and Geo. On the flip side Matt Ryan just figured out what kind of a weapon Calvin Ridley can be for him as well. These teams rank 23rd and 24th in total defense and are playing indoors. Give me over 53.
Lions vs. Cowboys
Detroit finally looked a team that figured it out last week. Watching the game last week I left being extremely impressed with their ability to control the line of scrimmage, run the ball and put themselves in manageable 3rd down situations. The Cowboys minus a win against the Giants have looked horrible all season. No reason the Cowboys should be the favorites in this game. Especially without Sean Lee who leads that team. Lions +2.5 I am personally sprinkling ML as well.
Teaser
Pats -.5
Jags -1
Will be in front of the tv for every game today. Would look to tweet out and talk about the games with subscribers. Please follow me on Twitter @titotalkssports
As we head into another Saturday we look to keep things rolling in College Football finishing 4-2 and hitting a 3 team teaser. This week is not the prettiest card in football history but value can still be found
FAU vs. MTSU.
The Pick FAU -3.5
FAU has losses this year to UCF and Oklahoma who are two of the top teams in the country. FAU is 0-3 ATS this season and I think that is giving us a lot of value against MTSU. I expect them to roll today as they begin conference play. Middle Tenn State hasn’t impressed so far this season and I expect the better athletes and better coached team to come out on top
Ohio State vs. Penn St.
The Pick Ohio St -3.5
Ohio State has looked impressive all season long without Urban Meyer. There first game back came out and laid the wood down on Tulane who had a nice upset win last night over Memphis. Penn State has started most games slow and needed strong 2nd half’s to close out games and cover. They did it against Illinois, App State and Pitt. However, Ohio State is to good of team to allow you come out and roll them in the 2nd half. The Buckeyes should do really well in this spot and spoil the Whiteout in Happy Valley. I also lean towards the Under in this game. This is not the Big 12. I see this number creeping up higher towards game time has it hit 72 mid week. The public loves the over and will bet it before game time just for action. If it gets above 70.5 jump all over it.
USC vs. Arizona.
The Pick USC -3.5
We go back to well here with USC except this time we will get a better result. Even though we didn’t cash the USC ticket last week I walked away very impressed by how they played in the second half of that game. Arizona has looked bad losing to BYU and Houston. This team has only seen the red-zone 14 times this season and has shown they want Tate to be more of a passer which is not how they win or cover games.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame.
The Pick Over 52.5
The new look Ian Book led Notre Dame offense looked great last week against Wake Forest. I expect Ian Book to look better in his second week settling in at starter. Stanford is averaging over 11 yard per completion as well. Notre Dame is ranked 62nd in the country in rush defense and hasn’t seen a back like Bryce Love all season expect a big game from him since Notre Dame was the only team to keep him out of the end zone last season.
Pitt vs. UCF.
The Pick UCF -13
I truly believe UCF will score a lot and do it quickly. Pitt offense is not strong enough to keep up with McKenzie Milton and company. UCF needs every non conference game to be a highlight tape if they are going to impress the committee for a shot at the National Championship.
WVU vs. Texas Tech.
The Pick Texas Tech +4
Texas Tech has been an impressive team all season. They got a huge win in Stillwater last week. Freshmen Alan Bowman has looked impressive this season and could be the just savior Kliff Kingsbury needed. I will take a home dog getting 4 points at home in a ranked conference matchup. We will also be on sharp side of this one as the Action Network reports 53% of bets on WVU with only 41% of the money.
Temple Vs. Boston College
The Pick Over 54
Temple rush defense hasn’t looked good all season ranked 76th in the country and is averaging over 175 yards per game against them. They are also banged up on the defensive line and not sure if they have depth they need on their above the line (depth chart). Temple haven’t seen a back like AJ Dillon all season either. Last week Temple looked at times like it was unable to keep up when Tulsa was running a high tempo and got lucky with Tulsa mistakes. This Boston College team is much efficient with the ball in their hands and will not play as sloppy. Since turning the offense over to Anthony Russo they have looked much better on offense and he has a very strong arm and can move well in the pocket. With Boston College’s up-tempo offense it should allow them Temple to get on the board.
Hawaii vs. SJSU
The Pick Hawaii -10
San Jose State is not a good team and is catching some love after covering a 41.5 point spread against Oregon in a clear look ahead spot. Oregon had Stanford on deck and knew they could blow past SJSU. Hawaii I expect to put up points fast in this game and not give San Jose a chance to keep up.
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Arkansas is currently in full-blown rebuild mode and the fans don’t even care about this team. They average 5.2 yards per play and this is against teams like North Texas, Colorado State, Eastern Illinois and Auburn. Now they face a very motivated Texas A & M team that has a new coach in Jimbo Fisher averaging 7 yards per play against teams like Clemson and Alabama. Even against this tough schedule, the Aggies have been able to hold their opponents to an average of 22.5 points per game. Arkansas is a train wreck this year and will be lucky to move the ball and score any points.
Texas A & M -21
Florida vs Mississippi State -9 O/U 51
Well this game set up well for the Bulldogs. Had the beat Kentucky then I would not be sure if I liked it. I love teams in a good bounce back spot and this one lines up well. Florida just took care of their rival Tennessee and now has to go on the road again to face this pissed off team. The Bulldogs could not stop the run against Kentucky but their defense is till averaging 13.5 points allowed as well as 3.25 yards per run and 4.22 Yards per play. Florida on the other hand hasn’t faced anyone tough except Kentucky at home and they have some QB issues. I like Mississippi state to stack the box and win by 13.
Miss State -9
Let’s stay right here. Florida really has no passing game and is the second slowest playing team in the league at 56 plays per game and Mississippi State ranks 99th at 67 plays per game. Both teams held their opponents to under 16 points per game on average on defense and Mississippi state is great defending teams to 4.2 yards per play.
Under 50.5
Florida State vs Louisville +5
Ok, Louisville is an absolute train wreck right now. The only good team that they played was Bama and they still only average 3.7 yards on the ground and a just 4.7 yards per play averaging only 17 points per game. Louisville also gives up about 5.6 yards per play. Florida State we know stinks as well but I think they have played harder competition in Syracuse, Northern Illinois and Virginia Tech. They are at least averaging 5.1 yards per play and giving up 5.2. I like Florida State to win by a TD or so. This is an ugly game but one with some value.
Florida State -5
Michigan vs Northwestern + 13
This game actually set up pretty nicely for me. Northwestern coming off a bye and a terrible loss to Akron while Michigan coming off a very easy win against a Nebraska team that plays fast. If you look at the total of this game it is pretty low for college football which also tells me that this spread might be a bit too high. The market is so low on Northwestern for losing to Duke and Akron that I think there is some dog value here. Michigan has been wooping up on teams pretty good lately but this is still the same team that lost to a Whimbush led Notre Dame team. They really haven’t played anybody good this year and I think Northwestern should be able to slow this game down. I like that the Wildcats are averaging 3.9 yards per game against the run on defense when you see that Michigan is a run first type team. 2/3rds of Michigan’s plays have been running plays so I think this is a low scoring punt a ton type game. Most importantly Northwestern needs a huge game here.
Northwestern +13
Baylor vs Oklahoma -24
So we saw Oklahoma get frustrated for not preparing correctly vs Army. They almost lost this game outright but survived. Baylor on the other hand has not been good over the past 3 or 4 years since RG3 and is therefore not respected in the marketplace. One thing you can’t ignore is Baylor’s potent offense that averages 7 yards per play and a 153 QB Rating. This Baylor team last year when young also only lost to Oklahoma by 8 points and these kids know that they can hang with them a little bit. Now we know how strong Oklahoma’s offense is and all and they should be able to score when they want but I think in the back of their minds that they might be looking ahead to a Texas team that just beat TCU and is very hungry to face the Sooners. I think Baylor can keep up with these guys and the fact that their defense is at least stopping teams to a 117 passing rating and 5.45 yards per play that they can keep this game within 20.
Baylor +24
Pittsburgh vs Central Florida – 15
I find it pretty strange that Central Florida only has 4 away games this year. Their UNC game was cancelled but still! Lucky them huh. What isn’t lucky is that they do not have any hard games on their schedule for them to have a chance to get into the playoffs again… Because of this they pretty much are trying to destroy every team on their schedule. Since they play so fast and McKenzie Milton is so good, any team that they play that isn’t top 50 should be on auto-bet for you if the spread is less than 20. The stats shouldn’t even matter at this point
UCF -15
Virginia Tech vs Duke – 5.5
This handicap is actually pretty simple to me. Virginia Tech lost Josh Jackson to a broken Fibula and Duke’s backup QB Quentin Harris is actually pretty good. Duke has played a much harder schedule than Virginia Tech and we gave them way too much Credit for beating Florida State. Even with Jackson I have Duke beating them by 10 points in the power ratings.
Duke – 5.5
Oregon State vs ASU O/U 64.5
So we know that Oregon State plays pretty fast at 80 plays per game but at the same time Arizona State plays pretty slow at 69. The fact that ASU is at home should bode well for them. ASU can control this game due to their stellar defense allowing just 18 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. ASU has played a pretty hard schedule against some good offenses as well. Herm isn’t a run up the score kind of guy and I think they run the ball this whole game. I love this under and it should hit easily.
Under 64.5
Texas vs K State O/U 47.5
Kansas State seems really bad this year. Worst that I have seen in a long time. When they played ranked teams, they failed to score over 10 points. Texas has a decent defense holding teams to 21 points per game and they played a decent schedule with TCU and Maryland and USC. Texas is also looking ahead to Oklahoma and I doubt they want to get too cute here. I think Texas wins this game 23-13 in a very boring game.
OTHER PLAYS
UAB – 17 vs Charlotte. Charlotte has a QB injury as well and UAB is 10-5-1 ATS since last year and 4-2-1 as a favorite. Charlotte is a pretty bad team.
BYU +17.5 ML sprinkle vs Washington: BYU is a much better team then people think this year. They carry the ball and run clock.
Ohio -13 vs UMASS – Umass has some serious QB injury problems. Both Andrew Ford and Ross Comis got injured last game
Other Games
Ohio State vs Penn State +4 – I have Ohio State by like 1 point or so. The White out night game is more like a 5 point home field advantage. This is a Revenge spot for Penn State but they did not look great a few games this year vs Appalachian State and 3 quarters vs Illinois. Super high total. Small lean on Penn State
Virginia vs NC State Under 52.5 – back to the well with Virginia. Bronco Mendenhall is a good coach and likes to pound the ball. NC State plays an average pace at 73 plays per game but Virginia plays 109th in pace at 65 plays per game. This game will go fast because the clock is going to run run run. Both teams allow less than 3.8 yards per run and both defenses average less than 18 points per game. Virginia is at 17.8 and NC State is at 13.3. This should go way under
West Virginia vs Texas Tech +4.5 O/U 77.5
Ok, so its very evident to me that Texas Tech is in a let down spot after beating Oklahoma State. It is also very evident to me that West Virginia hasn’t played anybody. I think Texas Tech is better than Ole Miss and would beat them if they replayed that brutal game. Both teams have very high-powered offenses and good efficiencies. Texas Tech averages 6.7 yards per play and Virginia averages 8.2. What I found strange is that Texas Tech is number 2 in plays per game at 98 plays per game and the mountaineers are 122nd at 64 plays per game. Part of this reason is that they have been beating tomato cans such as Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State. What I did find surprising is that both defenses are doing pretty well but its hard to compare them when one team played the 21st hardest schedule and West Virginia has played the 95th hardest schedule. The power ratings have West Virginia a slight favorite on a neutral field so in this instance you have to go with the home dog. I also may be taking the under in this game.
Texas Tech +4.5 and ML Sprinkle 1 Unit
Purdue vs Nebraska – Premium Play
Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern – Premium Play
Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan – Premium Play
Louisiana Monroe vs Georgia State – Premium Play
Sharp Money Report:
Georgia Tech to -28 hosting Bowling Green
Kansas + 28 vs Oklahoma State
Virginia to +6 at NC State
Georgia State +7.5 hosting Louisiana Monroe – I disagree there
Ohio hosting Umass -13. They have 99% of the money on them
Tennessee +31 at Georgia
Nevada +7.5 vs AIrforce
Middle Tenn State +3 hosting Florida Atlantic
Texas A & M hosting Arkansas has 99% of the money. Public and Sharp
Fresno State to -10 hosting Toledo
Sharp Totals:
Memphis vs Toledo Over 69
Texas A & M vs Arkansas under 62
Ok State vs Kansas under 62
Ball State over 63.5
UCF vs Pitt Both sharps and Squares on over to 66
Baylor vs Oklahoma under 69,5
Purdue vs Nebraska 2 way action on the over 57 91%
App State vs South Alabama under down to 57.5
Tennessee vs Georgia under to 52′
Nevada vs Airforce 2 way action over to 68.5
Michigan vs Northwestern under 48
Florida vs Miss State under 51
Duke vs Va Tech under 51
FAU vs MTSU under has 2 way action down to 66.5
Oregon St vs ASU under 63.5
Oregon vs Cal under to 58.5
The National Flag League: NFL
Vikings at Rams -6.5 –
I am going to start right off the bat playing against the over reaction to the Bills loss. I mean, what would this spread look like had the Vikings their kicker completed a Field Goal in Green bay and didn’t look past the BIlls last week? 4 points, maybe 5? This Viking team is still the team that improved their Quarterback from 2017 and just missed going to the NFC Championship game. As far as the Rams, who have they even played??? The injured Chargers, the hopeless Raiders and the 0-3 Cardinals at home. They key here for me is that the Rams have lost their TOP 2 corner backs for this week in Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib. I also do not like that they lost Zuerlein in this game situation. For the Vikings, they are a bit beat up as well. I am hoping Delvin Cook plays and they need Center Josh Andrews back. I do not like that Everson Griffen just went nuts on the Vikings and was committed to the Looney bin, but they still should have the talent to keep this game close. Mike Zimmer will not get wooped upon again.
Vikings +6.5
San Francisco vs LA Chargers -10.5 –
Ok, does C.J. Beathard have any business being in the NFL? Probably not but that does’t mean that he is as bad as some of the other garbage that I see out there. At last the guy has a 55% completion percentage and a 69 QB rating. Most importantly to me is how the hell is the Chargers laying this many points with that terrible Defense? The Chargers give up second worst 31 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Even a terrible team should be able to move the ball here. the 49ers are second in the NFL in rushing yards and should be able to control the pace of this game. Expect Breida and Morris to have big days. I know the loss of Richard Sherman will hurt this team but the Chargers may be without Mike Williams as well. This line pays no respect to Kyle Shanahan whatsoever. I think Kyle will be able to dumb down this offense a bit to a dink and dunk style and be able to keep this game closer.
49ers + 10.5
Kansas City vs Denver +5.5 and O/U 56
Will the Patrick Mahomes train run out of steam? Well according to the Power ratings and the NFL efficient index this spread is inflated. The obvious reason for this is that Kansas City has one of the worst Defenses in the League allowing 474 yards per game, 6.7 yards per play and 30.7 points per game. The problem here is that they have the best offense in the league averaging 39 points and 400 yards per game. The Chiefs have the second best red-zone efficiency at 92% and over all the best offensive efficiency in the League. For these reasons I do not want to even touch the spread on Denver’s side. But what I do like is Denver’s ability to run the ball and slow the game down. The Broncos are 3rd in rushing yards per game and top 8 in attempts. We know that Case Keenum can’t make the long throw and this is why the Bronco’s games go pretty quickly. Denver also has a pretty good defense, top 10 in sacks and top 13 in yards per play. Denver also doesn’t score too quickly and they are one of the worst in Yards per point at 18.8 I think that they run the ball here at home and slow down the amazing Kansas City’s prolific offense.
Under 56 points
Eagles vs Titans +4 O/U 41.5
When it comes to defense, both of these teams have been very good this year. When it comes to pace of play Tennessee is one of the slowest. The Eagles have the 5th best at Red Zone Defense allowing only a 33.33% success rate for touchdowns while Tennessee is number 1 at 16.67 percent. Let’s face it, the Eagles are banged up! Ajayi is hurting and missing games. No more Torrey Smith. Mike Wallace is out for the year. Alshawn Jeffery isn’t back yet. Who does that leave you? Agolor and Ertz. Now a rusty Carson Wentz is coming into Tennessee trying to score points. On the other side of the coin, Marcus Mariotta has been banged up and so is their backup Blaine Gabbert with a concussion. The Titans also lost their top pass catcher earlier this year in Delainey Walker. Both offenses together are only putting up 16 and 20 points per game for a total of 36 while these 2 defenses allow only 17 and 18 points per game for a total of 35 points per game as it is.
Be mindful that some of these lines may have moved since earlier in the week. Any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @dedgesportpicks
Virginia at NC St -6
Bryce Perkins leads Virginia into NC St territory this week. The dual threat QB and offense has been balanced overall this year averaging 218 passing yards and 216 rushing yards per game.
NC St’s defense needs to show up this week and be well disciplined. If they can contain Perkins and make someone else beat them they should rise to the occasion. Ryan Finley is having another outstanding year that should continue here against a decent Virginia defense.
The last time Virginia played a road game against a power 5 team they only mustered 16 points at Indiana and lost the game 20-16. I believe this NC St squad is better than Indiana and should pull this one out. Take NC St -6.
Virginia Tech at Duke -5
Virginia Tech is coming off a game where they lost to Old Dominion as a huge favorite. That should have lit a fire under their butts. However, they lost QB Josh Jackson and will have to turn to their backup.
Duke is coming into this game undefeated, even after losing QB Daniel Jones.Quentin Harris has filled that role admirably and their defense has played well also. Take Duke -5.
Bowling Green at Georgia Tech O/U65.5
A bad Bowling Green team comes into Atlanta to face Georgia Tech. Bowling Green has mostly been in the mid teens to 20s for points in their past games.
This could be a little bit of a look ahead spot for GT as they go on the road to face Louisville next week in a conference game. They have the tools to get a big lead and then run clock with the triple option to get out with a win and without injuries. This could be somewhere around a 35-20 type game. Take UNDER 65.5.
Today we cover our college week 5 free picks as well as sharp line movement! Then @cubfandanny comes in to help break down his picks for the NFL week 4!
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14-7-1 Last week in College Football, 45-31-1 this season up 17 Units. NFL is 8-12 down 3.65 units. @thepublicdog recaps college football week 4. We then go into our Big 10 power ratings as well as betting spots for next week. @dnasty#1 Dnasty then comes in to break down fantasy football week 4! Key injuries, waiver wire, break out players and sleepers of the week!
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I apologize write-up’s aren’t as detailed this week for NFL wanted to ensure I got them out about 4 Hours before kickoff After a 4-2 ATS in college football and hitting the 3 team teaser I look to keep the momentum rolling into Sunday.
Vikings vs Bills 41.5
I think this over play a lot more that Dalvin Cook is not in the lineup this week. The offense will be more pass happy this week less balanced which should allow for a higher total. This Vikings offense should put up 30 plus points no problem and I expect Buffalo to find at-least 13 points some of it being in garbage time.Over 41.5
Chicago Bears -6 vs. Cardinals.
I think the Bears get it done and cover the number against the Cardinals. The bears defense has looked fantastic all season they held the Green Bay on the road to 24 points and Seattle to 17 last week. The Cardinals have scored 6 points on offense and may be the 2nd worse team in the NFL. I expect the Cardinals to be in long 3rd down situations most the game and Chicago to capitalize on good field position.
Bengals +3 vs. Panthers.
The Bengals are a team I have seriously upgraded throughout the first two weeks. Looked good against Indy and smacked Baltimore last week on Thursday night. Dalton is finding how much easier playing quarterback is in the NFL with more than just one weapon around him. Tyler Eifert is a go this week and Gio Bernard will fill in nicely as the feature back with Mixon out this week.
Cowboys vs. Seahawks -1
Pete Carroll is going to have his team fired up for the home opener simply because he knows an 0-3 start could be a death sentence for the season. In games near or right around a pick I always lean to the better quarterback which is Russell Wilson. Dak Prescott is struggling to move the ball through the air averaging only 165 yard per game and is making the offense look very one-dimensional. Great spot for the Seahawks I look for them to cruise to a nice win in front of their home crowd
Giants vs. Texans 43.5
The Giants finally bench Flowers at RT which should be an improvement on the offensive line. Wheeler I have assumed to be better but the Giants needed to see if it was time to give up on their first round pick. Houston coming off a game on which they expected to win and lost and the Giants also searching for their first win leads me to believe points will be coming. Shurmur will look for the run early to keep the defense honest and take some shots with OBJ this game who had 4 catches last week which is a recipe for disaster. Give me the over 43.5
Packers -2.5 vs. Redskins.
The Packers are the much better team in this game. Even on the road I think this game should be closer to -6 and getting the value of -2.5 and not 3 in this is huge. The Redskins got beat by a decent Colts team which the Redskins were favored by didn’t look like World beaters against a bad Cardinals team. The Packers had a huge comeback against the Bears and tied against the Vikings last week. Rodgers knows he will need every win possible going forward when he could have been 2-0 rather than 1-0-1. Give me the Packers -2.5.
Teaser
Chicago PK
Rams -1
Please follow me on Twitter @TitoTalksSports May likely post a Sunday night play there as well.
Rutgers has been down right unimpressive this season coming off back to back blowout loses 52-3 against Ohio St and 55-14 and Kansas. Yes the Kansas Jayhawks which many people pegged as a bottom feeder of FBS. Buffalo is 3-0 and 2-1 ATS barely missing a 44 point cover. Sitkowski who isRutgers True Freshmen quarterback has been going through some growing pains 33/67 on the season with 1 TD and 7 interceptions.On the Flip side Tyree Jackson has almost 800 yards and an impressive 12-1 TD to Int Ratio. The Bulls should be able to get turnovers and quality field possession as they are +6 in turnovers compared to -9 for the Scarlet Knights. Buffalo barely missed a bowl last season and with Army on deck. They know every win counts going into conference play.Line opened up -3 still value at -6.
Wisconsin vs. Iowa
Wisconsin lost to BYU this past week and kissed their National Championship dreams away. I don’t think they want to destroy their chances of a New Years 6 Bowl in week 4 of the College Football season. Wisconsin is going to rely on one thing at this Hornibrook handing it off to Taylor. Iowa is only giving up roughly 60 yards per game on the ground however they haven’t seen a back like Taylor yet. They faced running backs from NIU, Northern Iowa and Iowa St to open up the season. This game opened up at -5 in the game of the year lines. I think the BYU loss was a reality checkfor Wisconsin and believe they will be focused on Saturday. Give me Wisconsin up to -5.
South Carolina -2.5 vs Vanderbilt
First and foremost Vanderbilt has no home field advantage and struggles to pack their stadium and South Carolina will travel in this SEC showdown. South Carolina is the more talented team in this matchup and I expect them to have some explosive plays and win the turnover battle in this game. South Carolina also is extra rested after Hurricane Florence canceled their last game and will being playing for some extra pride this week. Give me the Gamecocks.
TCU -3 vs. Texas
TCU has done everything they are supposed to do this season. They won their first game against Southern 55-7, beat up on SMU 42-17 and coveredagainst Ohio St. Texas lost to Maryland squeaked our a win against Tulsa and beat USC. Kind of an up and down year for Texas. Recent history points to TCU winning 5 out of the last 6. The narrowest win coming in 2012 when TCU won 20-13. I believe in a game like this the deciding factor can be at quarterback and Shawn Robinson has played well all season even out over 300 against Ohio state and should take advantage of a Texas defense that gives 5.19 per play.
Alabama vs. Texas A&M +26
The thought of going against Saban is absolutely brutal but I feel comfortable in this spot. Texas A&M led by Jimbo Fisher are sound on offense. They average roughly 7.45 yard per play. Which is a positive against a good Alabama defense. They should be able to make plays and score to keep this game close. I do believe people are forgetting that when A&M played Clemson on the 8th they only lost by 2 points should have even been won the game. Texas A&M has the recruits and athletes to keep this game close enough. I think Bama money will come in closer to game time as they are a huge public team.
WSU vs. USC -4.5
If the Trojans need a statement win this year it is now. USC is coming of a horrific loss last week to Texas where they played terrible. WSU on the other hand is flying up everyone power rankings with impressive wins. However those wins were only against Eastern Washington, San Jose State and Wyoming. JT Daniels USC quarterback is young and will continue to improve and get more comfortable leading one of the most prolific college football teams in the country. The Game of the years line had this game at 15.5 and while I do think WSU has improved and USC hasn’t played well I think USC will get up for this spot with their season on the ropes.
Teaser
Baylor -1.5
Michigan st +1
Buffalo PK
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Tonight we have three games on the slate in the NCAA (not including the coveted Harvard-Brown match up in Providence) and all three games should be worth watching. So if you’re not hitting the town and you find yourself on your couch tonight kick back, grab a cold brew, and put your money on my picks.
FAU (+13) @ UCF 7:00pm EST ESPN
We kick things off with an in-state rivalry as Lane Kiffin and the Florida Atlantic Owls travel to Orlando to take on the 2017 National Champion* UCF Golden Knights (-13). FAU came into the season looking to make some noise with resdshirt freshman and Oklahoma transfer quarterback Chris Robinson, but he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype. Robinson had a gem of a game vs Air Force where threw for 471 yards and 3 TDs, but only threw for 171 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs last week vs FCS Bethune-Cookman.
UCF’s game last week was postponed due to Hurricane Florence and so far this season they haven’t played anybody particularly good BUT they have a lot to prove. During last year’s undefeated season, UCF made a case for a spot in the playoffs but were ultimately denied that opportunity. With FAU getting blown out at Oklahoma week 1, UCF has an upcoming match up that the college football playoff committee can measure up vs an Oklahoma team that has a great shot to make it back to the playoffs. The committee may pinpoint this game over any of UCF’s schedule to see if the talent level is on par with Oklahoma or another major Power 5 team.
UCF returns all 5 starters from last year’s offensive line in addition to stud Quarterback McKenzie Milton AND 74% of overall production from the 2017 team. The Golden Knights not only play this game as a rivalry game, but a prove-it game and is my #MattyLewLockoftheWeek. I have them handicapped at -17.5 and the I think their defense (which returns 76% of overall production) shuts down Robinson so I’m sprinkling a half unit on the under.
Verdict:
UCF -13 (2u)
Under 75.5 (.5u)
Penn State (-28.5) @ Illinois 9:00pm EST FS1
Trace McSorely and Penn State will travel to Champaign, Illinois to take on the Fighting Illini tonight. Penn State has won their past 2 games with a combined score of 114-16 after surviving a Week 1 overtime scare vs Appalachian State. The Nittany Lions are straight up rolling right now. They went to Pitt and took care of business allowing 6 points and 272 to in-state “rivals”. With conference play starting at Illinois, Penn State looks to keep the momentum rolling with he 30th ranked offense.
Illinois, however, is no slouch team. They haven’t had a tough schedule but the Fighting Illini are trying to turn the page in their not-so-memorable recent history. They are 8th in the country in turnover margin so far and should be 3-0 if it wasn’t for 18 fourth quarter points let up last week vs USF.
I think this game will go closer than people expect and might be a 1 score game going into the half. Penn State faces a massive matchup next week against Ohio State and the news with Nick Bosa forces them to eyeball that game. I see them looking ahead, not focusing on Illinois as much as they should. The start of the Lovie Smith era combined with the nighttime atmosphere is a good recipe for a cover here by Illinois. Anytime there is a 28 point underdog at home with a winning record, take that to the bank.
Verdict:
Illinois +28 (1u)
Washington St (+4.5) @ USC10:30pm EST ESPN
Washington State will take their 3-0 record to the Coliseum Friday night in a Pac-12 match up vs USC. The Trojans just came off an embarrassing loss at Texas where they were looking to make a statement on national TV. I admittedly thought the Trojans were going to go in and take care of business but their offense looked lost most of the game.
Washington State clearly has the offensive advantage with Graduate transfer quarterback Gardner Minshew at the helm. Last week, he threw for 470 yards and two touchdowns against FCS Eastern Washington. Minshew has looked incredible, throwing for over 400 yards in the past two games and 319 week 1 vs Wyoming. The Cougars and Minshew will face their first big test tonight against a very strong USC defense although they lost some credibility last week.
As for the Trojans, this is an early season must-win game. If the Trojans lose this game, they will already have 3 losses and will dig themselves in a deep hole early in the year. JT Daniels needs to make better decisions in this game and show that he is maturing week-to-week. Daniels has a lot on his plate leading one of the most prolific college teams at only 18 years old.
The key to this game for USC is to keep their offense on the field and slow down Washington State, but I don’t see it happening. Daniels has a a long way to go before fulfilling his potential and I think the 2018 season will be more of a learning curve than a success story. I’m taking Washington St +4.5 and sprinkling the moneyline.
Verdict:
Washington St +4.5 (1u)
Washington St ml (.5u)
*Alabama is clearly 2017 National Champs but this is why the playoffs should be at least 6 teams
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