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Georgia Tech SWT O/U 7.5
Going into the 2025 season, I think that there is an ACC team here being overlooked. Clemson is good, but I am not as high on Clemson as everyone else. Don’t forget the team that almost beat Georgia last season in Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets rank 18th in post spring returning production. That is a solid number these days. Yellow Jacket’s quarterback Haynes King was fantastic last year throwing at a 73% completion percentage as well as 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. King also ran for over 500 yards. If you are still wondering how this team could get tot he championship game, here is the kicker. The 2025 football schedule for the Bee’s is the best. This team completely avoids traveling to the west coast. Their season also avoids Louisville, Florida State, Miami, SMU, and North Carolina. Literally most the the best teams in the ACC. I also love how recruiting has improved on 247sports ranking 33rd in 2024, and 21st in 2025. This football team also gets Clemson at home to kick off the ACC season. I see a bunch of value on this team and will take their win total over as well as their future to win the conference.
Georgia Tech over 7.5 wins and to win the ACC +1200
The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club, featuring the top 50 players in the standings. With only the top 30 advancing to next week’s TOUR Championship, the stakes are high as players battle to keep their FedEx Cup title hopes alive and compete for the PGA TOUR’s ultimate prize.
The Ryder Cup will be held at the end of September at Bethpage State Park’s Black Course, and both the U.S. and European teams are starting to take shape. The United States has already locked in three of its six automatic qualifiers: Scottie Scheffler, J.J. Spaun, and Xander Schauffele. The remaining three automatic spots will be decided after this week’s BMW Championship, going to the players ranked fourth through sixth in the U.S. points standings. U.S. captain Keegan Bradley will announce his six captain’s picks on August 27, following the conclusion of the TOUR Championship.
3 spots locked up on the U.S. Ryder Cup Team🔒 🇺🇸
This time next week we'll have all six automatic qualifiers headed to Bethpage Black. 🏆
On the European side, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, and Tommy Fleetwood have secured their places. The rest of the team will be finalized through three additional automatic qualifiers and captain Luke Donald’s selections.
Only the top 30 players in the FedExCup standings will advance to the TOUR Championship after this week. Those who make it will earn a two-year PGA TOUR exemption through 2027, along with entry into the major championships that traditionally honor top-30 finishers.
Several big names are currently on the outside looking in, including Xander Schauffele (43rd), Matt Fitzpatrick (40th), and Rickie Fowler (48th). Ryan Fox (34th) and Brian Campbell (39th), both two-time winners on the PGA TOUR this season, also need strong performances to move into the top 30.
Minimum finish required to pass 30th in FedExCup
Golfer
Rank
Points (entering week)
Minimum finish
Lucas Glover
30th
1,234
—
Sam Stevens
31st
1,207
Solo 40th
Ryan Gerard
32nd
1,202
two-way T38
Daniel Berger
33rd
1,180
two-way T33
Ryan Fox
34th
1,157
two-way T29
Taylor Pendrith
35th
1,150
two-way T28
Thomas Detry
36th
1,142
solo 27th
Kurt Kitayama
37th
1,122
three-way T23
Denny McCarthy
38th
1,121
two-way T23
Brian Campbell
39th
1,120
two-way T23
Matt Fitzpatrick
40th
1,104
two-way T21
Si Woo Kim
41st
1,102
solo 21st
Michael Kim
42nd
1,100
solo 21st
Xander Schauffele
43rd
1,099
solo 21st
Jason Day
44th
1,093
solo 20th
Harry Hall
45th
1,075
solo 18th
Bud Cauley
46th
1,051
solo 15th
Tom Hoge
47th
1,042
three-way T13
Rickie Fowler
48th
1,032
solo 13th
Jhonattan Vegas
49th
1,003
two-way T11
J.T. Poston
50th
996
solo 11th
Every player in the BMW Championship field has already locked up a spot in all Signature Events on the 2026 PGA TOUR schedule, as well as the 2026 PLAYERS Championship.
BMW Championship returns to Caves Valley
The BMW Championship returns to Caves Valley for the first time since 2021, when Patrick Cantlay outlasted Bryson DeChambeau in a thrilling six-hole playoff. Unfortunately for us, we had backed DeChambeau that week (looking back, it’s wild to see how far our articles have come since then).
We’ll see a slightly different version of Caves Valley this week, as the course has since undergone a renovation that increased its yardage, altered the layout, and changed the par from 72 to 70.
The BMW Championship, the second event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, has been a key fixture on the PGA TOUR schedule since 2007 when it replaced the historic Western Open. As the penultimate stop before the TOUR Championship, it brings together the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings, all vying for a coveted spot in the season finale. The tournament has traveled to some of the most prestigious courses in the country, including Cog Hill, Crooked Stick, Medinah, Olympia Fields, and Caves Valley, each offering a distinctive challenge. Past champions include golfing greats such as Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, and Patrick Cantlay, who famously outlasted Bryson DeChambeau in a dramatic playoff at Caves Valley in 2021. Known for elite fields, high stakes, and thrilling finishes, the BMW Championship consistently produces some of the most memorable moments of the golf season.
Caves Valley Golf Club, in Owings Mills, Maryland, is a Tom Fazio creation that opened in 1991 and quickly established itself among the premier courses in the Mid-Atlantic. With its rolling terrain, strategic bunkering, and fast, undulating greens, the course has hosted several notable events, including the 2002 U.S. Senior Open, the 2005 NCAA Men’s Golf Championship, and multiple USGA amateur championships. Its first PGA TOUR appearance came in 2021, when it staged the BMW Championship and delivered an unforgettable playoff between Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau.
Ahead of its 2025 return to the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Caves Valley underwent a major renovation to elevate its challenge for the modern professional. The layout was re-routed, increasing the total yardage from 7,542 to 7,601 yards and converting several par-5s into demanding par-4s, resulting in a Par 70. The first hole was extended by more than 110 yards, with a lowered fairway and a green repositioned to the left. The par-3 17th received a new tee box and a water hazard guarding the front of the green, adding over 50 yards to the hole. All 86 bunkers were rebuilt with the CapillaryFlow liner system to improve drainage and reduce storm washouts, while fairway contours were expanded and greens were refined. PrecisionAire subsurface systems were also installed beneath every green complex, ensuring consistent firmness and conditioning, all while preserving the signature character of Fazio’s original design.
Caves Valley has evolved since 2021.
In 2023, the club completely renovated their course in just 100(!) days.
Caves Valley Golf Club, designed by Tom Fazio, is a par-70 layout stretching 7,601 yards. The course offers a balanced mix of four par 3s, twelve par 4s, and two par 5s, rewarding players who can combine distance with solid ball striking.
As the third longest course on the PGA TOUR this season, its 33-yard-wide fairways rank among the 20 widest, making length off the tee more valuable than pinpoint accuracy. The greens are smaller than the TOUR average at about 5,200 square feet, placing extra importance on precise approach shots. With just 68 bunkers, the 19th fewest on TOUR, hazards are less of a factor, but players will still need sharp iron play to score well.
The four Par 3s at Caves Valley Golf Club range from 197 to 245 yards, placing a premium on precision and smart club selection. At the 2021 BMW Championship, only one hole, No. 6, played over par on average, while the others (No. 3, No. 13, and No. 17) proved to be easier.
At the 2021 BMW Championship, this hole played at 225 yards, but for this year’s tournament, it has been lengthened by 20 yards.
An intimidating tee shot on the 245-yard par 3 for players hitting over water to the largest green on the course. A back left pin will make this hole play substantially tougher than other holes. Long and right are the misses here for players hitting long iron onto this green.
At the 2021 BMW Championship, this hole played at 197 yards, but for this year’s tournament, it has been lengthened by 48 yards.
Beautiful sand bunkers guard the green with a water feature on the right. The early summer and fall prevailing winds help keep the ball left of the water; however, it is deemed harder than it appears. The green slopes back-to-front, par will be a good score for this par 3.
Caves Valley Golf Club features twelve par 4s, most of which fall between 450 and 500 yards. Strategy plays a major role, particularly on holes that offer tempting risk-reward opportunities. In 2021, the two toughest Par 4s were the 18th and 9th.
This par 4, 470-yard hole provides an uphill walk to the fairway and will not be an easy finish to the back nine. This is another tee shot where the bunkers are firmly in play, pinched into the sides of the fairway and forcing players to aim down the middle. Most players will be left with a long iron or hybrid into an elevated green, protected by a large, deep bunker in front with two other bunkers surrounding.
Playing as a par 5 for members and previously played as a par 5 in 2021, this hole is now a demanding 568-yard par 4.There is no tolerance for a right-handed slice with water that runs down the right side of the hole. The bunkers have been designed so that a tee shot must be short of the penalty area, or the longest of hitters will have a narrow window to negotiate the bunkers up the left and right side of the fairway landing area. The green is large, and beware of a right pin location, which may push balls into the water.
The tee measures 470 yards to the green from the Championship tee on this par 4, while playing uphill and into a prevailing wind. Bunkers have been pinched into the left side of the fairway, with an 8-foot-wide winding stream running down the right side of the hole. Players must find the fairway with their tee shot to have any chance at a birdie or par. Hitting uphill into a green that is difficult to see means that players must be precise with their yardage. Approach shots missed to the right will find the stream, while bailing out left will find a tough greenside bunker.
Both par 5s at Caves Valley Golf Club, No. 4 and No. 16, played under par in 2021 and present the best birdie or eagle chances on the course. That said, hitting the fairway is crucial to capitalize on these scoring opportunities.
A daunting par 5 measuring 590 yards from the back tee. Staying left on the tee shot will provide a possible approach, while short and right is all trouble. The longest hitters may choose to fly over the corner dogleg bunker, which could mean the difference between a long iron and fairway wood into the green. Attempts to reach this green in two shots that come up left or right will find new greenside bunkers from which birdie will be an unlikely score. As players are walking down the fairway from the tee, they can look to their right to take in the impressive view of the 15th and 16th holes.
This 600-yard hole is the toughest par 5 on the course. Large bunkers line the left and right sides of the landing zone, so accuracy off the tee is a must. Players that find the bunkers off the tee will be forced to take a lofted club to advance the ball back into the fairway. The green sits horizontally and is extremely difficult with multiple hole locations.
As the BMW Championship returns to Caves Valley Golf Club for the first time since 2021, comparing the course to PGA TOUR averages can provide insight into which players may have an edge. It is worth noting that the course has undergone renovations since its last appearance, so these statistics may not fully reflect how it will play this year. Here is how Caves Valley Golf Club stacks up statistically:
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Caves Valley Golf Club
Driving Distance (Yards)
284.03
294.05
Driving Accuracy
62%
66%
GIR Percentage
66%
72%
Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)
29.17
33.00
Scrambling Percentage
57%
68%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.39
According to DataGolf, players who perform well at Caves Valley Golf Club usually excel in ball striking and driving distance. The course features wide fairways on nearly every hole and few hazards, rewarding those who can generate length off the tee. This advantage leads to easier approach shots and more scoring opportunities.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach play remains one of the most critical stats at Caves Valley Golf Club. With its large, undulating greens and challenging pin positions, players who can consistently dial in their iron shots generate the best scoring opportunities. This is an essential factor for contending in Baltimore.
Leaders in SG: Approach (Last 24 Rounds):
Scottie Scheffler
Viktor Hovland
Kurt Kitayama
Shane Lowry
Hideki Matsuyama
Akshay Bhatia
Collin Morikawa
Patrick Cantlay
Tommy Fleetwood
Ben Griffin
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
This course rewards players who can consistently find the fairway while also hitting long, well-placed drives. Players who excel in this area often gain a significant advantage, as they are better positioned to attack the greens and avoid costly mistakes.
Leaders in SG: Ball Striking (Last 24 Rounds):
Chris Gotterup
Scottie Scheffler
Sam Stevens
Cameron Young
Rory McIlroy
Ludvig Aberg
Daniel Berger
Kurt Kitayama
Sepp Straka
Maverick McNealy
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Caves Valley features Pure Distinction bentgrass greens, known for their speed and subtle breaks. Putting proficiency on these greens is a major factor in separating the contenders.
Leaders in SG: Putting (Bentgrass) (Last 24 Rounds):
Harris English
Matt Fitzpatrick
Harry Hall
Sam Burns
Brian Campbell
Jacob Bridgeman
Sam Stevens
Justin Rose
Scottie Scheffler
Keegan Bradley
Driving Distance Gained
At a course like Caves Valley Golf Club, stretching over 7,600 yards, longer drives offer a clear advantage by reducing the distance needed for approach shots and opening up more scoring opportunities.
Leaders in Driving Distance Gained (Last 24 Rounds):
Rory McIlroy
Chris Gotterup
Xander Schauffele
Kurt Kitayama
Ludvig Aberg
Jhonattan Vegas
Taylor Pendrith
Cameron Young
Sam Burns
Keegan Bradley
Par 3 Scoring: 225+ Yards
Caves Valley features several long par 3s over 225 yards, demanding precise iron play and strong ball striking to navigate the challenging tee shots and tricky greens.
Leaders in Par 3 Scoring: 225+ Yards (Last 24 Rounds):
Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick
Chris Gotterup
Brian Harman
Sam Stevens
Ryan Gerard
Ben Griffin
Ryan Fox
Daniel Berger
Patrick Cantlay
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
With twelve par 4s on the course, half of them fall between 450 and 500 yards. These holes are key battlegrounds, requiring a mix of smart strategy, solid tee shots, and precise approach shots to score well.
Leaders in Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (Last 24 Rounds):
Sam Burns
Jhonattan Vegas
Cameron Young
Scottie Scheffler
Chris Gotterup
Shane Lowry
Tommy Fleetwood
Ludvig Aberg
Justin Rose
Lucas Glover
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
Both par 5s at Caves Valley fall into this distance range and offer some of the best scoring opportunities, especially for longer hitters who can reach the greens in two shots.
Leaders in Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards (Last 24 Rounds):
Akshay Bhatia
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Matt Fitzpatrick
Ben Griffin
Sam Burns
Denny McCarthy
Ludvig Aberg
Jhonattan Vegas
Birdies or Better Gained
A key measure of scoring potential, this stat highlights players who consistently capitalize on scoring chances. Success at Caves Valley often hinges on the ability to rack up birdies when they arise.
Leaders in Birdies or Better Gained (Last 24 Rounds):
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Harry Hall
J.J. Spaun
Justin Thomas
Ben Griffin
Chris Gotterup
Justin Rose
Robert Macintyre
Rickie Fowler
Proximity: 175 – 200, 200+ Yards
Caves Valley demands precision on longer approach shots, with a high volume of greens being attacked from the 175 and up yard range. This tests both mid and long-iron play, making proximity to the hole from these distances a strong predictor of success.
Leaders in Proximity: 175-200 Yards (Last 24 Rounds):
Viktor Hovland
Si Woo Kim
Hideki Matsuyama
Scottie Scheffler
Brian Campbell
Harris English
Kurt Kitayama
Shane Lowry
Taylor Pendrith
Patrick Cantlay
Leaders in Proximity: 200+ Yards (Last 24 Rounds):
Scottie Scheffler
Hideki Matsuyama
Ryan Gerard
Matt Fitzpatrick
Viktor Hovland
Akshay Bhatia
Russell Henley
Kurt Kitayama
Tommy Fleetwood
Sam Stevens
Strokes Gained: Total (Easy Scoring Conditions)
At a course like Caves Valley Golf Club, when conditions allow for lower scores, the players who can consistently gain strokes across all facets tend to rise to the top.
Leaders in Strokes Gained: Total (Easy Scoring Conditions) (Last 24 Rounds):
Akshay Bhatia
Scottie Scheffler
Russell Henley
Daniel Berger
Ben Griffin
Collin Morikawa
Brian Campbell
Hideki Matsuyama
Ludvig Aberg
Sepp Straka
Comparable Courses and Event History
These are your course horses. Players who’ve repeatedly performed well at Caves Valley or similar layouts. Whether due to course fit, comfort with the setup, or success on comparable tests, this group offers a strong track record for contending at the BMW Championship.
Leaders in SG: Total – Caves Valley Golf Club:
Patrick Cantlay
Sungjae Im
Rory McIlroy
Sam Burns
Viktor Hovland
Scottie Scheffler
Justin Thomas
Corey Conners
Harris English
Shane Lowry
Daniel Berger
Leaders in SG: Total – Comparable Courses (TPC Craig Ranch, Vidanta World (Vidanta Vallarta Course), Wilmington Country Club (South)):
Scottie Scheffler
Akshay Bhatia
Xander Schauffele
Sam Burns
Daniel Berger
Patrick Cantlay
Taylor Pendrith
Brian Campbell
Ben Griffin
Kurt Kitayama
The Field:
The 2025 BMW Championship will feature a field of 50 players, with 25 of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking set to compete.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 50 FedExCup Points
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Keegan Bradley (2024, 2018), Viktor Hovland (2023), Patrick Cantlay (2022, 2021), Justin Thomas (2019), Jason Day (2015), Rory McIlroy (2012), Justin Rose (2011)
Previous Winners in the Field (Course):
Patrick Cantlay (2021)
Debutants in the Field:
Andrew Novak, Benjamin Griffin, Brian Campbell, Christopher Gotterup, Harry Hall, Jacob Bridgeman, Michael Kim, Ryan Fox, Ryan Gerard, Sam Stevens
Players with ties to Maryland in the Field:
Birthplace/Raised:
Denny McCarthy – Rockville, Maryland
Michael Kim – Silver Springs, Maryland (born in Korea, raised in Maryland)
College:
Brian Campbell – University of Maryland (later transferred to the University of Illinois)
Caddie Changes:
Here’s Scottie Scheffler and fill-in caddie Mark Cromie.
Cromie subbing in for Ted Scott, who is back home dealing with a personal matter. Cromie is Chris Kirk’s regular caddie.
Scheffler’s team confirmed Cromie is expected on the bag for the full week at BMW. pic.twitter.com/E9tXmVOCRQ
Sepp Straka WD from the BMW Championship due to a private family matter.
Statement from Straka’s manager Butler Melnyk: “For personal reasons, Sepp is unable to play this week. He intends to compete at the TOUR Championship, but requests privacy at this time as he attends to a…
Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the top players in the field for this year’s BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club, ranked by current betting odds (via DraftKings). The table below details each player’s five most recent finishes on the PGA TOUR and their last five results at the BMW Championship.
Golfer
Odds
Last 5 Finishes on the PGA TOUR (Recent -> Past)
Last 5 Finishes at the BMW Championship (Recent -> Past)
Will There Be a Playoff at the BMW Championship? (Yes +400 / No -650)
The BMW Championship has not gone to a playoff in the past three years. The last time it happened was in 2021, which was also the most recent time Caves Valley Country Club hosted this event.
Recent Horses for Courses (Caves Valley Golf Club):
BMW Championship
Caves Valley Golf Club
Golfer
2021
Patrick Cantlay
WON
Sungjae Im
3
Rory McIlroy
4
Sam Burns
8
Viktor Hovland
T17
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Caves Valley Golf Club):
BMW Championship
Caves Valley Golf Club
Golfer
2021
Maverick McNealy
T63
Collin Morikawa
T63
Keegan Bradley
T60
Russell Henley
T60
Tom Hoge
T49
Xander Schauffele
T49
Hideki Matsuyama
T46
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Keegan Bradley (-12) – Castle Pines Golf Club
Price: 100-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
7th
1st
2nd
6th
34th
2023: Viktor Hovland (-17) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North Course)
Price: 18-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
2nd
3rd
4th
34th
4th
2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) – Wilmington Country Club (South)
Price: 16-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
3rd
2nd
6th
40th
23rd
2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
Price: 25-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
15th
28th
28th
47th
1st
2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Price: 10-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
7th
6th
9th
13th
6th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Keegan Bradley
T59 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T22 – Wyndham Championship (PGA)
T46 – 3M Open (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T39 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
2023: Viktor Hovland
T13 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T13 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T25 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
T29 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
19 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2022: Patrick Cantlay
T57 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
T2 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
T8 – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T4 – Genesis Scottish Open (PGA)
T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
2021: Patrick Cantlay
T11 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T23 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
MC – The Open Championship (MAJ)
T13 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
T15 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
2020: Jon Rahm
T6 – THE NORTHERN TRUST (PGA)
T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
T52 – WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (PGA)
WON – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
T27 – Workday Charity Open (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Keegan Bradley
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Castle Pines Golf Club
Wilmington Country Club (South)
Caves Valley Country Club
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
Cherry Hills Country Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
Crooked Stick Golf Club
Cog Hill Golf & Country Club
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
T29
T58
T60
T43
WON
T27
T28
WD
T16
T59
T16
2023: Viktor Hovland
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Wilmington Country Club (South)
Caves Valley Country Club
Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
2022
2021
2020
T35
T17
T40
2022: Patrick Cantlay
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Caves Valley Country Club
Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
WON
T12
2
T55
T9
2021: Patrick Cantlay
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
2020
2019
2018
2017
T12
2
T55
T9
2020: Jon Rahm
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Medinah Country Club (No. 3)
Aronimink Golf Club
Conway Farms Golf Club
2019
2018
2017
T5
T24
T5
Picks:
Outrights
Ludvig Aberg (+2200) – DraftKings
Cameron Young (+3000) – DraftKings
Chris Gotterup (+4000) – FanDuel
Ben Griffin (+4000) – FanDuel
Kurt Kitayama (+4500) – DraftKings
Tournament Matchups
Taylor Pendrith (-120) over Andrew Novak – DraftKings
Rickie Fowler (-115) over Shane Lowry – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
1-20 – Very Fast 20-45 – Medium Fast 46-85- Medium 86-110 – Medium Slow 111 – 136 Very Slow
Head Coaching changes:
Appalachian State:
2024 Coach: Shawn Clark – Shawn ranked 35th in pace at 25.5 seconds between plays.
2025 Coach: Dowell Loggains – The previous OC at South Carolina ranked in the middle at 68th in pace. I expect much of the same with the team slowing it down some.
Change: Medium Fast to Medium
Ball State:
2024 Coach: Mike Neu – Temple ranked 71st in seconds between plays at 27.2.
2025 Coach: Mike Uremovich – Prior to Butler, Mike was an OC at temple ranking 30th in plays per game.
Change: Medium to Medium Fast
Bowling Green:
2024 Coach: Scot Loeffler – The Falcons ranked turtle like 118th in pace at a slow 29.4 seconds between plays.
2025 Coach: Eddie George – Did a good job at Tennessee state and they scored a good amount of points. I expect a medium fast schedule, but my confidence level is low.
Change: Very Slow to Medium Fast
Central Michigan:
2024 Coach: Jim McElwain – The Chippewas were a slow 101st in pace, but you probably didn’t win on too many unders due to a terrible defense.
2025 Coach: Matt Drinkall – coming as an OC from Army, I expect a slow slow pace like they had last year ranking dead last in seconds between plays at 32.85. While they won’t be an option offense, I expect slow play.
Change: Medium Slow to Very Slow
Charlotte:
2024 Coach: Biff Poggi – This team was a tad bit slow ranking 83rd in pace.
2025 Coach: Tim Albin – Tim won the MAC title and jumped ship to Charlotte. His teams played a very slow pace ranking 119th at 29.8 seconds between plays.
Change: Medium Slow to Very Slow
East Carolina:
2024 Coach: Mike Houston – Houston, we have a problem. This team played very fast thanks to offensive coordinator John David Baker ranking 2nd in the league at 21.9 second between plays. Mike Houston was fired mid-season.
2025 Coach: Blake Harrell – Blake Harrell who was defensive coordinator took over the team in October being promoted to interim from defensive coordinator. ECU went 5-1 and Blake got the full time gig. John David Baker remains the OC so speed is what we need.
Change: Very fast to Very Fast
Florida Atlantic:
2024 Coach: Tom Herman – Last season, the Owls had a modest pace ranking 65th in the nation.
2025 Coach: Zac Kittley – As an OC at Texas Tech, Kittley had his team ranking a blazing 6th in pace at 23.3 seconds between plays.
Change: Medium to Very Fast
Florida International:
2024 Coach: Mike MacIntyre – FIU was a slower paced team ranking 94th in total pace.
2025 Coach: Willie Simmons – Simmons was the running game coordinator at Duke before taking the FIU job. Before that he was an FCS coach at Florida A&M. I expect a faster pace as Duke ranked 28th in pace.
Change: Medium Slow to Medium Fast
Fresno State:
2024 Coach: Tim Skipper (Interim) – Kind of a medium pace ranking 47th last season.
2025 Coach: Matt Entz – A Lincoln Riley disciple from USC, the Trojans ranked 48th in pace. I actually expect a bit faster this year as USC’s history had faster play.
Change: Medium to Medium Fast
Jacksonville State:
2024 Coach: Rich Rodriguez – This team was a blazing 9th in pace last year. Might have been more without blowouts.
2025 Coach: Charles Kelly – Charles Kelly has been in the league as a DC for a very long time. Clint Trickett will be the OC who comes from Georgia Southern. They had a medium pace. I expect slower play.
Change: Very Fast to Medium
Kennesaw State:
2024 Coach: Brian Bohannon – I thought the firing of Brian Bohannon mid-season was weird. They just got to the FBS. Anyways, they ranked 99th in pace.
2025 Coach: Jerry Mack – Jerry Mack comes from the NFOL. He was the OC at Rice back about 5-7 years ago and his pace was quite slow. I expect continued slow pace.
Change: Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Kent State:
2024 Coach: Kenni Burns – This teamed burned time ranking only 103rd in pace from the 2024 season.
2025 Coach: Mark Carney (interim) – Being that Mark was the OC, I do not expect much change.
Change: Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Marshall:
2024 Coach: Charles Huff – The Herd ranked 46h in pace from last season.
2025 Coach: Tony Gibson – Gibson comes in as a defensive coordinator from NC State. More importantly, Rod Smith comes in from being the OC at Jacksonville state and I expect a fast pace for 2025.
Change: Medium to Very Fast
New Mexico:
2024 Coach: Bronco Mendenhall – This bad team ranked 21st in pace last season.
2025 Coach: Jason Eck – Jason comes in from being the head coach at Idaho. The Vandals had a medium fast pace, and I expect the same.
Change: Medium Fast to Medium Fast
North Carolina:
2024 Coach: Mack Brown – Not so return of the Mack ranked 43rd in pace last season.
2025 Coach: Bill Belichick – The new Hugh Hefner won’t be calling the plays on offense. Freddy Kitchens will and he pretty much did that last season at UNC. I expect the same pace.
Change: Medium Fast to Medium Fast
Ohio:
2024 Coach: Tim Albin – Tim was methodical on offense ranking 120th in pace for the Bobcats.
2025 Coach: Brian Smith – Brian was the OC last year, so I expect a lot of the same.
Change: Very Slow to Very Slow
Purdue:
2024 Coach: Ryan Walters – Ryan’s Purdue to was worse than most group of five teams. Their tempo ranked 110th in the FBS.
2025 Coach: Barry Odom – Barry comes to save the day, but UNLV’s tempo was a modest 64th in the nation. I expect a medium pace.
Change: Medium Slow to Medium
Rice:
2024 Coach: Mike Bloomgren – Rice had an average pace ranking 51st at 26.5 seconds in between plays.
2025 Coach: Scott Abell – Comes from Davidson in the FCS. They scored enough points for me to believe that the pace will be medium fast.
Change: Medium to Medium Fast
Sam Houston:
2024 Coach: KC Keeler – This defensive first team ranked 81st in pace.
2025 Coach: Phil Longo – While Longo comes from Wisconsin that ranked 59th in pace, his days at North Carolina and other schools tell me that he will light it up now that he is in charge. Expect a spread / air raid style offense.
Change: Medium to Very Fast
Southern Miss:
2024 Coach: Will Hall – The Tempo ranked right in the middle at 64th in the nation.
2025 Coach: Charles Huff – Last year with Marshall, Huff had his team ranking 46th in pace. I expect close to the same if not a little slower.
Change: Medium to Medium
Stanford:
2024 Coach: Troy Taylor – When you suck this bad, you have to slow the pace down to 99th in the nation.
2025 Coach: Frank Reich – Hard to say with Frank Reich taking over. Nate Byham is promoted from TE coach to OC, so I think that he could keep it close to the same.
Change: Medium Slow to Medium Slow
Temple:
2024 Coach: Stan Drayton – Temple ranked 71st in pace of play. They should have ranked dead last as they were quite bad.
2025 Coach: KC Keeler – This is easy. Keeler ranked 81st in Tempo at Sam Houston. No Change.
Change: Medium to Medium
Tulsa:
2024 Coach: Kevin Wilson – The Golden Hurricane played like one ranking 13th in pace.
2025 Coach: Tre Lamb – At East Tennessee State, Tre had his team pacing Medium Fast. Although, I have low confidence in this one.
Change: Very Fast to Medium Fast
UCF:
2024 Coach: Gus Malzahn – The Gus bus has left the building as fast as his 22nd ranking in pace.
2025 Coach: Scott Frost – Although Scott Frost had to slow it down in Nebraska, I think he goes back to his old ways in the Big 12 where he had UCF at lighting speed.
Change: Medium Fast to Very Fast
UMass:
2024 Coach: Don Brown – Boring Don Brown had the Minute Men only ranking about 110th in pace. Although his defense was quite bad.
2025 Coach: Joe Harasymiak – Joe comes in from being a DC at Rugers. He did hire Northwestern’s OC Mike Bajakian who played slow at 106th in pace. No change.
Change: Medium Slow to Medium Slow
UNLV:
2024 Coach: Barry Odom – We already know that Barry ranked 69th in pace from Purdue.
2025 Coach: Dan Mullen – Dan got off of his lounge chair and came back to coaching. He ranked a methodical 92nd in pace back at Florida.
Change: Medium to Medium Slow
Utah State:
2024 Coach: Nate Dreiling (Interim) – Utah State ranked a very fast 4th in pace last year at 22.3 seconds between plays.
2025 Coach: Bronco Mendenhall – Bronco hqs had his teams playing fast lately. His OC Kevin McGiven comes from San Jose State and they ranked top 10 in tempo.
Change: Medium Fast to Very Fast
Wake Forest:
2024 Coach: Dave Clawson – No time was left on the table for Dave Clawson ranking 20th in pace from 2024.
2025 Coach: Jake Dickert – Jake Dickert ranked 42nd in pace of play, but I think they were actually faster than that being that they were involved in a lot of blowouts.
Change: Very Fast to Very Fast
Washington State:
2024 Coach: Jake Dickert – Like I said with Jake, He had this team playing faster than the numbers showed last season.
2025 Coach: Jimmy Rogers – I think Jimmy has this team playing Moderately fast like he did at South Dakota State.
Change: Medium Fast to Medium Fast
West Virginia:
2024 Coach: Neal Brown – Neal Brown had this team’s pace ranking 83rd.
2025 Coach: Rich Rodriguez – Rich Rod back at coach. I expect the same high speed and a lot of running the ball once again with the spread option.
Change: Medium to Very Fast
Substantial offensive coordinator pace changes:
Alabama:
Going from Nick Sheridan to Ryan Grubb should speed this team up some like it was for the 2023-2024 Washington Huskies.
Change: Medium to Medium Fast
Coastal Carolina:
This team was medium in pace and should go much faster with Drew Hollingshead at OC.
Change: Medium to Medium Fast
Florida State:
A change from Kevin Alex Atkins to Gus Malzahn’s RPO offense should speed this offense up a bit.
Change: Medium to Medium Fast
Houston:
A switch off of Kevin Barbay to Slade Nagle should speed it up some. Last year, Houston was 125th in pace. I expect somewhat of a speed increase with the pro-style of Slade Nagle.
Change: Very Slow to Medium Slow
Michigan:
This team ranked a snail’s 132nd in pace at 31.3 seconds in between snaps. With Chip Lindsey from North Carolina, I expect a lot more speed.
Change Very Slow to Medium Fast
Texas Tech:
Going from Zach Kittley to Mack Leftwhich should slow it down some as this team has improved their defense and Mack ranked 32nd in pace at Texas Tech.
Change: Very Fast to Medium
UCLA:
This team should speed it up some going from 127th in seconds between plays. They hared Curt Cignetti protégé Tino Sunersi who played faster in closer games.
Change: Very slow to Medium
Wisconsin:
Now that Phil Longo is gone, the Badgers hire Jeff Grimes from Kansas who will slow this down to a crawl. I expect this team to get back to those unders that we loved in the 2000s.
We have a great show for you today! D-Nasty is back to talk some fantasy football! First, we get into some recap from preseason week 1 and some of the big winners that we had found. Next, Kiev talks about NFL preseason week two as well as a Free Play for the weekend! Then, Dave comes on and the guys get right into fantasy football and running back share? Which running backs will make the teams? What is the percentage of carries? How often will there be a split backfield and more! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Our survivor contest will revive if two or more final remaining entries eliminate during any particular week! This will in turn maximize payouts to our final winner(s)!
Entrants attempt to select the winner for 1 game per week. Entrants that select only winners will advance to the next slate. The entrant that makes it the furthest takes home the whole prize. If all remaining entrants are eliminated in the same slate, they will all be considered winners and will all split the prize.
Check the individual week tabs in your picksheet to view the pick deadline for each week. The deadline appears at the top as “Picks lock” with the date and time.
Sport: Football
Contest Type: Survivor
Multi-Entry: Yes (10)
Slate: View all weeks
Entry Deadline: 9/7 @ 10:00 AM
Pick Deadline: Sun, Sep 7 at 10:00 AM
Rules
Select only winners to advance to the next week
Losses, Ties, and Missed Picks result in elimination from the contest
There are no tiebreakers
If you run out of teams, you will be unable to make a pick for the current slate, and will be unable to advance
If one or more remaining entries is able to make a correct selection for that slate, you will be eliminated
If all other remaining entries are unable to make a correct selection for that slate, the contest will revive and the remaining entrants will go on to the next week!
If all remaining entries run out of teams, the contest will conclude at the end of the slate and the remaining entrants will split the prize
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Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Steelers vs Jaguars -4.5 O/U 36.5
📍 Game Details
Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT
Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Broadcast: FOX30 (Jacksonville), CBS/KDKA (Pittsburgh), streaming on NFL+
🔍 Key Storylines
🐆 Jaguars
New Era Begins: Head coach Liam Coen makes his debut, bringing an aggressive offensive philosophy from his time with Tampa Bay.
Trevor Lawrence Starts: The Jaguars will play most of their starters for a few series, including QB Trevor Lawrence.
Travis Hunter’s Debut: The second-overall pick will play both WR and CB, a rare two-way role that’s generating major buzz.
🛡️ Steelers
Starters Sitting: Pittsburgh will rest at least 15 of their 22 starters, including Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, and Calvin Austin III.
QB Rotation: Expect Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson to split reps behind a mostly intact offensive line.
Defensive Depth Test: With most defensive starters out, the Steelers will rely on backups to contain Jacksonville’s first-team offense.
Weather: Mostly cloudy, warm and muggy with a high of 81 degrees. 48% chance of rain. Possible a few showers.
Prediction:
Lots of money came on the Jaguars when we found out that they are playing their starters. I think this line may have moved too far. While the Jags have some studs on their team, we cannot forget who their backups are. After Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, we have Nick Mullens, John Wolford, and Seth Henigan. Who???? I expect these guys to play most of the game. While we will not see Aaron Rogers for the Steelers, we will se some Mason Rudolph and some Skyler Thompson. These guys are not exactly world beaters, but they certainly have a leg up on what the Jaguars have to offer. Lastly, we have to remember that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has a fantastic preseason record of 41-23 at 63% winning percentage. He likes to win these games. We do not have information on Jaguars coach Liem Coan just yet, but I assume he isn’t quite as aggressive as Tomlin when it comes to meaningless games. I think the Steelers might win this, but let’s take the points for the larger play.
We have a great show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks from Hunter Sports Picks is back to break down a huge season of college football! First, Kiev talks a litte NFL preseason football. Next, Kyle comes on and the guys get right into college football. We talk some trends and then go over a bunch of predicted tempo changes for teams for the 2025 season. Then, Kyle and Kiev talk some season win totals. After that, the boys give out a week 0/1 FREE PLAY. Then, we look at long shots that could pay some big bucks for the 2025 season. Finally, Kiev talks a little UFC for the weekend! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
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The Circa NFL football contests are back for 2025, and they’ve never been more massive or more thrilling. If you’re a sports bettor and haven’t explored these legendary betting challenges, it’s time to dive in and ask yourself why you’re missing out on all the action. Circa Millions VII returns with a robust format—an 18-week NFL contest where you pick five games each week against the spread using fixed lines. The goal? Outsmart the competition and claim the jaw-dropping $1 million top prize and the prestigious blue winner’s jacket. On top of that, there’s a guaranteed $6 million in total payouts, no rake involved.
Last season’s overlay was over $100,000 thus adding serious value for every entrant. Quarterly prizes continue with $300,000 handed out to the top five scorers each quarter. Even if one quarter goes sideways, you’ve got three more chances to make a comeback. At year’s end, places two through one hundred split a hefty $3.65 million. For those who are flirting with infamy, there’s now a second-place booby prize worth $50,000, plus $25,000 booby prizes doled out quarterly. As they say—if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Then there’s the Circa Survivor. This 18-week, 20-pick contest is all about choosing one team each week to win outright. Survive all 18 weeks, and you’ll get a shot at the gigantic $15 million guaranteed prize pool. If more than one contestant survives the gauntlet, the pot gets split accordingly. Circa Sports CEO Derek Stevens is pushing the limits again, adding an extra $6 million in guaranteed money, raising the total contest payouts to an astonishing $21 million, all with no rake. These contests aren’t just back—they’re blowing the roof off of everything else in the betting world.
Circa Millions:
Circa Millions has 6 million dollars in guaranteed payouts! The quarterly prizes include $300,000 paid out to the top 5 quarterly scored participants. Just in case you have a rough quarter, you still can potentially win the next! This contest is also paying out 3.65M to the top 2-100 entries at the end of the year! There is now a second place booby prize for $50,000.00 and $25,000.00 booby prizes that are paid out every quarter. Playing Millions is a little different than sports betting in itself as in the lines are always locked in place, and the strategy can be different depending on where your specific entry ranks for the quarter or for the year. Here are the highlights below courtesy of Circa Sports.
$1,000 to enter, 5 entries per person max
Make 5 NFL picks against the spread each week
Get one point for each correct selection and one-half point for each push
$6 Million guaranteed in total prizes
$1 Million first place prize and the coveted blue jacket
$3.65 Million in cash prizes for places 2 – 100
$300,000 per “Quarter” in prizes awarded every 4-5 weeks
$100,000 last place booby prize / $50,000 second to last place booby prize
No Rake! Any extra fees go into the quarter and full-season prizes
Circa Survivor:
Circa Survivor now has a guaranteed 15 million dollars in total payouts! That is 5 million more than last season due to a huge 14,270,000.00 in last year’s pot! There are 20 total legs in this contest with Thanksgiving day games and Christmas games being their own week. Here are the highlights below.
$1,000 to enter, 10 entries per person max (can rebuy up to ten additional entries until the registration deadline if you lose on the opening TNF or Friday game)
Up to 20 picks in 2025: NFL Weeks 1 – 18, plus Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday and Christmas Leg (Wed/Thur)
Each NFL team can only be selected once per each entry during the contest
No Rake! – the last remaining entry wins the entire survivor pool: $15 Million guaranteed, plus more if entries exceed $15 Million
Entries are eliminated from the contest by selecting a team that subsequently loses or ties its NFL game that week or continues until a single entry remains
The contest continues until a single entry remains
If more than one entry remains after all 20 legs, the pool is split equally among all the entries that successfully submitted a selection during the leg
If all remaining entries lose in the same week, the pool is split equally among all the entries that successfully submitted a selection during the leg
Picks are due at 4 p.m. PST every Saturday or before kickoff of the selected game (whichever is earlier), except for:
Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday: picks are due by 10 p.m. PST Wednesday, November 26
Christmas Leg: picks are due by 9 a.m. PST Wednesday, December 25
See everyone’s picks here and on Twitter @CircaSports each week!
Grandissimo:
Wait, did you think that Derek didn’t have something up his sleeve for 2025? There is a NEW survivor for high rollers called Grandissimo! The rules are the same as Circa Survivor, but with a much larger buy in at $100,000.00 per entry for a guaranteed minimum payout of $1,500,000.00! This contest will have much less entries than Survivor, making it an interesting and potentially different strategy for each participant in order to take home the big prize!
$100,000 to enter, 2 entries per person max (can rebuy up to two additional entries until the registration deadline if you lose on the opening TNF or Friday game)
Up to 20 picks in 2025: NFL Weeks 1 – 18, plus Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday and Christmas Day
Each NFL team can only be selected once per each entry during the contest
No Rake! – the last remaining entry wins the entire survivor pool: $1.5 Million guaranteed, plus more if entries exceed $1.5 Million
Entries are eliminated from the contest by selecting a team that subsequently loses or ties its NFL game that week or continues until a single entry remains
The contest continues until a single entry remains
If more than one entry remains after all 20 legs, the pool is split equally among all the entries that successfully submitted a selection during the leg
If all remaining entries lose in the same week, the pool is split equally among all the entries that successfully submitted a selection during the leg
Here are some great Hotel deals for the big season! Go to CircaSports.com/contest for more details!
Hotel Offers:
1-9 total entries = 50% discounted room at Circa Resort & Casino for 2 nights
10+ total entries = Complimentary stay at Circa Resort & Casino for 2 nights
**These night(s) must be used by September 5**
Please email info@circasports.com with your full name, contest number(s), and alias(es) for the contest(s) along with what offer you are looking to redeem as one of our customer support team members will be able assist. If you are looking to book ahead of time, do so on the circalasvegas.com website and following signing up for the contest(s), please email info@circasports.com and we will apply the offer.
Registration Deadline:
Registration ends at 2 p.m. PST on Saturday, September 6 during the first NFL Week. All entrants will also receive a Circa Million VII hat.
Proxy Services:
🏈 You don’t have to live in Nevada to join the action. Thanks to proxy services, anyone—from anywhere in the world—can enter these epic football contests and compete for prize pools reaching into the millions.
Need a reliable proxy? Look no further than footballcontest.com @FootballContest—the most experienced football proxy in Las Vegas. Not only do they submit your picks, they also monitor deadlines, send reminders, and—even better—can make selections for you if you forget. Who knows? Their picks might outperform the crowd!
But wait! There’s more! The great people at footballcontest.com wants to help out anyone that goes out too early for survivor. This company is offering a HUGE proxy guarantee for the following year just in case a client goes out within the first three weeks!
Exclusive offer from FootballContest.com to help clients who become eliminated during the first 3 weeks of any Survivor contest that they have enter with FootballContest.com
Week 1 Elimination – 50% refund back on proxy fee for entry returned following year in form of credit
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It’s hard to beat a guarantee like this one.
🤑 Sign-ups are live NOW! And with all the money Derek Stevens has added to the prize pool, there may be an overlay that boosts your expected value.
Check out footballcontest.com for full details—and may the football gods smile upon your season
We have a HUGE show for you today! Sean Higgs @MrSeanHiggs is back to break down some NFL and Vegas Matty @Vegas_Matty from @FootballContest is here to talk about some amazing contests for 2025! First, Kiev touches some on the preseason as well as his Circa Sports article coming out this week. Next, Matty comes on and the guys get right into contests! What kind of changes should we expect? How much are the guarantees? Will there be a college football contest? Then, Matty talks about a special promo-code OB to get $50 off your entry as well as his survivor guarantee that helps you out if you go out early! After that, Sean Higgs comes on to talk everything NFL! We talk season win totals, preseason, week one and more! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Get a GUARANTEED trades and income through the Apex Alliance Club!
Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
Another NFL season is here, and wow does time fly. Looking to cash in on some big opportunities in the preseason market. It is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, quarterback changes, new coordinators, rule changes, and maybe the most important factors in motivation. Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future. Some coaches are very motivated to win preseason games, or at least certain ones, and some coaches do not care to win these games at all.
Since last NFL football season, there have been seven head coaching changes, and one rule change that could effect the way that these games are being played out. That rule change is a modification to the kickoff return. Touchbacks will now be moved to the 35 yard line instead of the 30. When the touchback is moved to the 35-yard line in 2025, it’s expected to encourage teams to kick the ball into the landing zone, therefore forcing a return, rather than simply gift their opponent an additional 5 yards.
As far as the coaching changes are concerned, we do have data on two of the coaches in Pete Carroll and Mike Vrable to make educated preseason motivational decisions. We hope to use this data and information to capitalize on a successful preseason from a sports betting perspective. It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do. I personally have to have at least eight games played, or three seasons of pre-season football to make a determination. As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have zero significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be a lot looser with their play calling, and very liberal on which athletes that they will put into play the game. Coaches that want to win in the preseason will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during training camp and OTAs. They also like to stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason. Other coaches that do not care much at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs. These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason, or plays that were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years.
Unfortunately, coaches come and go and every year we seem to lose at least one money maker. After last season we had to say goodbye to coach Dennis Allen who was 8-13 at 31%. This guy was so bad that he may actually had been trying to win. On the other side of things, we had to say goodbye to Matt Eberflus from the Bears who was 8-2 or 80% preseason win rate. The only games that he could win were in the preseason. Lastly, we way goodbye to Robert Saleh who was an amazing 10-2 in the preseason. An 83% win rate was nice, but there is much less than an 83% chance that he will be back at coaching anytime soon. Rough hits to the pocket book if you ask me.
For 2025, some of the most winning coaches who will be paying our bills will be:
Mike Tomlin at 41-23 at 64% – Although he somehow went 0-3 last season. Small sample size.
Pete Carroll at 28-21 at 57% – Pistol Pete is back and stronger than ever. Now in Vegas, he can make his fans and bettors happy.
John Harbaugh at 45-16 at 74% – Not a great last two years, but hey, his backup quarterbacks pretty much sucked.
Some of the most losing coaches who could also help pay some bills are:
Dan Quinn at 7-17 at 29% – Losing in the preseason means winning in life.
Nick Siriani at 3-7 at 30% – Super bowl preseason hangover is coming.
Zac Taylor at 3-12 at 20% – Let’s just piss off the rest of the team.
There also is a lot of up and comers with coaches like Demeco Ryans at 5-2 at 71% as well as Brian Callahan at 3-0 at 100%, and Nick Siriani at 3-7 at 30%.
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. We must be cognizant enough to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. Looking in the past for many of these coaches, they use to have four preseason games rather than three. I basically had to combine weeks two and three for the NFL Preseason before 2021. Some of the significant data that we found show that Jon Harbaugh is 15-2 in game one but only 9-8 at the final week. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Another look is Dan Quinn who is 1-10 in the middle weeks or what is now looked at as week 2, yet 4-2 in the final week. Another coach to look at Sean Payton who is 19-11 in the middle weeks yet 5-11 in the final. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly help.
I know what you are thinking. Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS? Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition. The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read more easily just based on the coaching records.
A few things to keep in mind for 2025. The preseason schedule remains only three games. Even though this change is still at it’s youth, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game, and in their last game.
In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish. If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.
That is 5 million more than last season due to a huge 14,270,000.00 in last year’s pot! There are 20 total legs in this contest with Thanksgiving day games and Christmas games being their own week. Here are the highlights below.
