We have a great show for you today! Kiev is traveling so this one is short but sweet. Another great week of football is in the books and now it’s time to recap. We talk about the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend as well as some betting spots. Kiev gives out an early Best Bet for college football. We do fantasy football with byes, injuries, waivers, sleepers, and busts. If you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Caleb Williams (Bears QB) – Suffered a hamstring injury late in the 9–3 loss to the Vikings, grabbed his hamstring while escaping pressure, and was carted to the locker room. An MRI is scheduled Monday.
Jayden Daniels (Commanders QB) – Stumbled near the Dallas goal line, braced with his left arm, and was taken to the locker room on a cart. Ruled out for the second half.
Jayden Reed (Packers WR) – Hit in the head/neck area early vs. the Jets, placed on a spine board, and carted off. Ruled out with a neck injury.
Saquon Barkley (Eagles RB) – Sustained a stinger during the win over Tennessee, missed most of the first half, and returned after halftime.
Dallas Goedert (Eagles TE) – Left with a knee injury and did not return
Demarcus Robinson (49ers WR) – Left game with an injury.
Alec Pierce (Colts WR) – Carted off vs. Chiefs with a heel injury; X-rays negative but further testing planned. Out at least 4 weeks.
David Njoku (Chargers TE) – Ruled out with a knee injury.
Jadarian Price (Seahawks RB) – Chest injury and monitor.
Jackson Dart (Giants QB) – Maybe a sprained MCL
Waiver Wire:
QB Tyson Bagent for the Caleb Williams injury.
QB Marcus Mariota for the Jayden Daniels injury.
QB Jameis Winston for the Jackson Dart injury.
RB Emmanuel Wilson for the Price injury.
RB Tank Bigsby for the Saquon injury.
WRs Mathew Golden and Sky Moore for the Jayden Reed injury.
WR Josh Downs for the injury to Alec Pierce.
TE Johnny Mundt for the Dallas Goedert injury.
TE Zach Ertz for the Goedert injury.
TE Charlie Kolar for the David Njoku injury.
WR Jacob Cowling for the Demarcus Robinson injury
Non-starters trending up for week 3.
QB Tyson Badgent is a good streamer against the Eagles.
WR Xaiver Worthy at the Colts is solid.
WR Deebo Samuel against the Cardinals is big.
WR Jameson Williams against the Jets is huge.
QB Geno Smith against the Lions ain’t too bad.
WR DK Metcalf against the Bengals.
WR Tre Tucker at the Saints.
Busts:
WR Terry McLaurin against the Seahawks is rough.
QB Baker Mayfield against the Vikings.
RB Jonathan Taylor against the Texans.
QB Daniel Jones agasint the Texans
RB Javonte Williams against the Ravens.
QB Bo Nix against the Broncos.
Nasty Sleeper: WR Mathew Golden against the Falcons.
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: FOX
ESPN Matchup Predictor: Packers 62.9%, Jets 36.9%
Sports Win Probability: Packers 62.5%, Jets 37.5%
Team
Record
Points For
Points Against
Packers
0-1
22
39
Jets
1-0
23
10
Key Statistical Leaders
Packers
QB: Jordan Love – 387 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT in Week 1.
WR: Christian Watson – 147 receiving yards, 2 TDs.
WR: Matthew Golden – 95 receiving yards.
Jets
QB: Geno Smith – 215 pass yards, 79.2% completion rate.
RB: Breece Hall – 102 rushing yards, TD .
WR: Garrett Wilson – 79 receiving yards
Advanced Analytics Snapshot
Packers Offense
419 total offensive yards in Week 1
9.2 yards per completion from explosive pass concepts to Watson and Golden.
Just 66 rushing yards, ranking near the bottom of the league through Week 1.
Surrendered 4 sacks and committed 2 turnovers versus Minnesota’s pressure packages .
Jets Defense Allowed only 10 points in Week 1.
Recorded 3 sacks and consistently pressured the quarterback.
Goal: force Jordan Love into quick decisions and eliminate deep shots.
Jets Offense
23 points scored despite only 215 passing yards.
Zero turnovers by Geno Smith.
102 rushing yards from Breece Hall provided offensive balance.
Packers Defense
Allowed 39 points in Week 1 but only 239 total yards.
Major issue was situational defense and late-game collapse rather than yardage prevention.
Keys to the Game
✅ Packers Pressure Allowed Rate.
✅ Jets Early-Down Rush Success with Breece Hall.
✅ Explosive Pass Plays (20+ yards) from the Packers.
✅ Red Zone Efficiency.
Prediction
I am gonna buy the Packers here on the overreaction.
Last week’s box score was quite misleading as the Refs got involved too much on the side of the Vikings, yet Minnesota was out-gained by plenty of yards.
Last week, the Jets took care of a dumpster fire team in the Titans with a new coach. I can’t upgrade them too much for that.
We are looking at a very solid Packers team going into a game where they need to bounce back. I think the Packers handle their business.
SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals -1.5 O/U 59.5
📅 Date: Saturday, September 19
🕒 Time: 12:00 PM ET
📍 Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
📺 TV: ESPN
🏆 Conference: ACC Matchup
Advanced Stat Preview
Two of the ACC’s most explosive offenses collide Saturday in a game that could have major implications in the conference race. The advanced metrics suggest there’s very little separation between these teams, with both ranking among the nation’s best in offensive efficiency and explosiveness.
Team Comparison
Category
SMU
Louisville
Record
2-0
1-1
Points Per Game
41.5
48.5
Total Yards/Game
566
552
Yards Allowed/Game
278
370
Third-Down Offense
54.2%
50.0%
Third-Down Defense
14.3%
33.3%
PPA/Play
0.46
0.45
Offensive SP+
34.3
33.3
Defensive SP+
18.6
19.4
Edge: SMU’s defense. The Mustangs have been significantly better at getting off the field and limiting explosive plays.
When SMU Has the Ball
QB Kevin Jennings has been outstanding through two games.
Jennings’ Numbers
767 passing yards
8 passing TDs
76.9% completion rate
14.8 yards per attempt
383.5 passing yards per game
SMU is built around vertical shots and chunk gains.
Explosive Weapons
Jalen Hale: 40.3 yards per catch
Yannick Smith: 25.2 yards per catch
Multiple receivers averaging over 20 YPC
The Mustangs rank among the ACC’s most explosive passing attacks and can erase deficits quickly.
Key Matchup: Louisville’s secondary versus SMU’s downfield passing game.
When Louisville Has the Ball
QB Lincoln Kienholz has given the Cardinals a dynamic dual-threat presence.
Kienholz’s Numbers
639 passing yards
111 rushing yards
Responsible for multiple explosive plays every week
Louisville’s biggest advantage comes on the ground.
Cardinals Rushing Attack
211 rushing yards per game
5.6 yards per carry
More balanced offensive profile than SMU
If Louisville establishes the run early, it can keep SMU’s high-powered offense on the sideline.
Key Stat To Watch
Third Down Defense
SMU: 14.3% allowed Louisville: 33.3% allowed
That gap is enormous.
If SMU continues winning on third down, Louisville may struggle to sustain drives despite its offensive firepower.
X-Factor
Turnover Margin
SMU survived multiple turnovers against Florida State because it dominated the yardage battle.
If the Mustangs protect the football, their efficiency and explosive passing attack make them extremely difficult to beat.
Louisville’s best path to victory is creating extra possessions and shortening the field.
Prediction
This is the classic, unranked team is favored against the higher ranked team.
I like SMU, but their performance against a bad Florida State team didn’t impress me.
Louisville didn’t have any problems marching down the field against a stout Ole Miss defense.
Lincoln Kienholz may not be as experienced as Kevin Jennings at quarterback, but thus far, he has done well with 4 TDs and 0 interceptions.
Jeff Brohm is the better coach and has had a much harder SEC opponent than SMU.
My power ratings have Louisville the better team. Have to lay the points.
Louisville -1.5 – 2 stars
LSU Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels +3 O/U 58.5
📅 Saturday, September 19
🕢 Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET
📍 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium | Oxford, MS
📺 TV: ABC
🔥 Game Overview
Get ready for one of the most explosive matchups in the SEC. Both teams feature high-powered offenses, aggressive play-callers, and quarterbacks capable of changing a game with one throw.
Everything starts with LSU’s ability to push the ball downfield.
📊 LSU Offensive Keys
✅ Elite passing attack
✅ Strong red-zone efficiency
✅ Vertical threat on every snap
The Tigers thrive when they can create chunk plays through the air. If LSU stays ahead of the chains on first down, Ole Miss could be forced into a shootout.
🔑 X-Factor
🎯 Explosive passes
Ole Miss has to limit LSU’s deep-ball opportunities. Giving up quick strikes is the fastest way to let the Tigers seize momentum.
🦈 When Ole Miss Has the Ball
Lane Kiffin’s offense is built on pace, spacing, and creating mismatches.
📊 Ole Miss Offensive Keys
✅ Fast tempo
✅ Dynamic rushing attack
✅ Multiple playmakers in space
When the Rebels are rolling, defenses struggle to substitute and get aligned before the snap.
🔑 X-Factor
🏃 Establishing the run
If Ole Miss can consistently pick up 4-6 yards on early downs, the playbook opens up and LSU’s defense becomes vulnerable to play-action shots.
⚔️ Key Matchup
🐯 LSU Pass Rush vs 🦈 Ole Miss Offensive Line
This battle could determine everything.
💥 LSU wants negative plays and long-yardage situations.
💥 Ole Miss wants a clean pocket and tempo.
Whichever side wins this matchup likely controls the game’s rhythm.
📈 Advanced Stat Edge
🐯 LSU
✅ Slight edge in explosive passing plays
✅ Stronger vertical passing game
✅ Better ability to create chunk gains
🐯 LSU Playmaker
A big-play receiver who can flip field position in one snap.
🦈 Ole Miss Playmaker
A dual-threat quarterback capable of hurting defenses with both his arm and legs.
📊 Advanced Stats Snapshot
Category
🐯 LSU
🦈 Ole Miss
Record
2-0
2-0
SP+ Ranking
#8
#20
Offensive SP+
#13
#11
Defensive SP+
#2
#39
Points Per Game
48.0
41.0
Points Allowed
12.0
23.5
Total Yards/Game
586
454
Yards Per Play
8.2
7.0
Passing Yards/Game
358
315
Rushing Yards/Game
228
140
3rd Down Offense
57.6%
53.2%
Red Zone TD Rate
76%
73%
Havoc Rate Allowed
Top 15
Top 35
🔮 Prediction
SU vs Ole Miss +3 O/U 58.5
This became the biggest game the day Lane Kiffen left the Rebs high and dry smack dab in the college football playoffs.
This spread moved 5-6 points since summer… Why? Because LSU creamed Clemson at home?
I am honestly going to say that I have no idea which team is actually better as LSU beat a terrible Clemson team, while Ole Miss beat a solid louisiville team. The other two matches were vs tomato cans and LSU seemed to struggle more.
I have to go with the points here and the psychology of this handicap. Lane Kiffen is the person who screwed the home team over here, and going by pure human psychology, I feel that we get an extra effort from Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss. The points are just too attractive here in this situation.
Ole Miss coach Pete Golding knows LSU and Kiffen’s playbook.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to break down a MASSIVE NFL Week 2. First, Kiev talks about overreactions and his power ratings moves for this week. Next, we get right into the NFL slate of games with some best bets! Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money moves and recaps out plays. If you have any questions for the podcast, or any games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Friday, Sept. 18 | Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock
Texas Tech enters 2-0 and ranked No. 13, while Houston is also 2-0 and ranked No. 22 in an early Big 12 showdown with conference title implications. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Texas Tech roughly a 73% chance to win.
Matchup by the Numbers
When Houston Has the Ball
Houston’s offense has been explosive through two games:
55.0 points per game
562 yards per game
308 rushing yards per game
54.9% Success Rate
0.42 Total PPA/play
The Cougars are led by QB Conner Weigman, who already has 425 passing yards and 4 TDs, while RB M. Hughes gives Houston balance on the ground.
The challenge is a Texas Tech defense that has been disruptive:
17.0 points allowed per game
27.6% defensive success rate allowed
18% Havoc Rate
Ranked No. 1 nationally in defensive Havoc based on prior-year adjusted metrics.
Key Stat: Houston’s offense has been efficient, but Texas Tech’s defensive Havoc could force Houston behind schedule and create the negative plays that have been missing from the Cougars’ first two games.
When Texas Tech Has the Ball
Texas Tech’s offense hasn’t been as explosive as Houston’s but has been efficient:
34.0 points per game
412 yards per game
45.6% Success Rate
4.36 points per opportunity
QB Will Hammond is completing nearly 77% of his passes with 487 yards.
Houston’s defense has quietly been outstanding:
13.0 points allowed per game
Opponents averaging just 34.7% Success Rate
26% Havoc Rate
Only 261.5 yards allowed per game.
The Cougars’ ability to generate disruption is a major equalizer. Houston has created far more Havoc than Texas Tech’s first two opponents.
Advanced Stats Edge
Using matchup-adjusted efficiency metrics from recent seasons:
Category
Edge
Overall PPA
Texas Tech
Points per Opportunity
Texas Tech
Success Rate
Texas Tech
Havoc
Texas Tech
Power Rating
Texas Tech
Defensive Rating
Texas Tech
One notable model found that all four major predictive factors (PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc) align with Texas Tech.
X-Factors
Houston
Can the offensive line protect Weigman against one of the nation’s most disruptive defenses?
Houston averaged over 7 yards per rush through two games. If that holds up, the Cougars can shorten the game and keep Tech’s offense off the field.
Texas Tech
Red-zone efficiency has been a concern despite the 2-0 start.
Hammond has been accurate, but Houston presents the best defense Tech has faced so far.
Prediction
I honestly could see both sides covering here, but I am more interested in the total.
This game is a no brainer for me. Houston is a slow playing team ranking 121st in tempo. Willie Fritz does not like getting in shootouts.
Last year, Texas Tech beat Houston 35 to 11 in Houston. For 2026, this Red Raiders team is not that good at offense only ranking 65th in EPA.
Both defenses are top 22 in defensive success rate.
This big battle should go under as this game does have big 12 championship implications.
Oct 3, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren (middle) leads the team onto the field to play the Pittsburgh Panthers at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
We’re down after last week, but never out. The best bets went 1–2, and while I’d prefer not to revisit the Minnesota game ever again, there were real takeaways.
Mississippi State was the clear right side, and the Gophers never had a chance. The Bulldogs are going to be a fantastic home dog in SEC play as long as Super Kamario stays upright — that offense travels, but it thrives in Starkville.
Army had USF right where they wanted them, up 24–14 with five minutes left, and then the Bulls absolutely dominated the closing stretch. Watching that final five minutes, I still don’t understand how USF didn’t control the entire game. They have better athletes at every level. Going forward, with the slow pace they insist on playing, I’ll look to fade them as favorites and back them as dogs. They can hang with anyone in the American, but their style will keep lesser teams in games they shouldn’t be in.
On a positive note, Delaware came through with the cover — and it was sweaty. Nick Miniccuci was in and out of the lineup, and a lot of the handicap depended on him staying in. Even with the QB shuffle, Vanderbilt couldn’t pull away, and Delaware kept moving the ball with a backup under center. Vandy looks like they’re headed for a long season. I don’t see them covering many spreads as favorites — or even being favorites — and the Blue Hens might quietly be an over team as we move forward.
🔥 Best Bets
North Carolina State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores
Location: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time: 12:45 PM ET
Channel: SEC Network (SECN)
Opening Line: Vanderbilt -4.5
Current Line: Vanderbilt -3.5
Key Matchups: NC State offense vs Vanderbilt defense — Vanderbilt gave up 220 passing yards to Delaware and only outgained them by a single yard… and Delaware’s starting QB didn’t even play the whole game.
Freshman QB vs Real Pressure — Jared Curtis is talented, but this is his first college start.
Analysis: Week one showed us NC State’s weaknesses, and week two showed us Vanderbilt’s — and Vanderbilt’s issues are the ones I’m willing to bet against. Unlike Virginia, Vanderbilt is not elite in the trenches, and that’s going to matter here. CJ Bailey should have no problem moving the ball against this Vanderbilt defense, especially after they just gave up 220 passing yards to Delaware while barely outgaining them by a single yard. Delaware’s starting quarterback didn’t even play the whole game, and Vanderbilt still couldn’t control the line of scrimmage.
The handicap is simple: Vanderbilt is starting freshman quarterback Jared Curtis in his first career start. He’s talented, and honestly he’s the better quarterback on their roster, but this is a tough spot for a debut. Even though NC State’s defense isn’t great, Curtis is still being asked to win his first start against a Power Five opponent with real speed and physicality. I’m fading the freshman here and taking the experience on the other sideline.
I’ll take NC State plus the three and the hook.
Pick: NC State +3.5
Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owls
Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Channel: ESPN+
Opening Line: FAU -9.5
Current Line: FAU -7
Key Matchups:
Air attack vs air attack — Both teams lean heavily on their aerial attack, and the real question is who can slow down the other’s passing game. Maybe neither can, and if this turns into a shootout, that plays directly into our hands.
Analysis:
Last week FAU’s offense looked unstoppable. Similar to the Army game, Navy simply didn’t have the personnel to cover FAU’s athletic receivers, and Caden Veltkamp spent the entire afternoon throwing to wide‑open targets. I’m not convinced FIU can shut FAU down completely — but they don’t need to. FIU will have plenty of chances to move the ball on a weak FAU secondary that hasn’t shown it can hold up for four quarters.
This is a rivalry game, and FIU won it last year. Add in a bit of a letdown spot for FAU coming off a win over Navy, and this sets up nicely for the Panthers to keep it within a touchdown. The number is already trending down, so I’m grabbing the 7 before it disappears.
Pick:
FIU +7
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Maryland Terrapins
Location: SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Channel: FS1
Opening Line: Virginia Tech -1.5
Current Line: Virginia Tech -2.5
Key Matchups:
James Franklin vs Maryland — This is personal. Franklin‑coached teams are 9–2 straight up and 8–3 ATS against Maryland. He’s made a career out of taking this matchup seriously, and history shows he doesn’t miss many chances to stick it to the Terps.
Analysis:
Both teams come in hot after cruising through their first two games, and there isn’t a clear on‑field edge you can hang your hat on. So we look to the sideline — and that’s where the handicap lives.
James Franklin has a chip on his shoulder when it comes to Maryland. He’s made it clear over the years that this is one of the programs he feels slighted by, and he’s taken it out on them every chance he gets. This isn’t the same talent gap he enjoyed at Penn State, but Franklin is still the better coach in this matchup, and you can bet he has a plan ready to make life miserable for the Terps.
With the line sitting under a field goal, I’m backing Franklin in a spot he historically dominates. But move quickly — this number is climbing.
Pick:
Virginia Tech (-2.5)
📌 Bets I’ve Already Made
I would not call these best bets but, these are smaller bets I have made. If you would like more picks follow me on X: @n0t_an_athlete
