The final jewel of the Triple Crown — now with a Derby‑distance twist.
The 158th Belmont Stakes runs today at Saratoga Race Course, the temporary home of the race for the third straight year while Belmont Park completes renovations. The race is shortened to 1¼ miles, matching the Kentucky Derby distance — a major factor in handicapping this year’s field.
There is no Triple Crown on the line, but the storyline is still rich:
Golden Tempo, the Kentucky Derby winner, seeks a second jewel.
Renegade, the Derby runner‑up, is the 2‑1 favorite and looking for revenge.
A deep group of Derby alumni returns, making this one of the most competitive Belmonts in years.
🐎 Field, Odds & Post Positions
According to the latest board, the nine‑horse field lines up as follows:
Post
Horse
Odds
1
Vitruvian Man
30‑1
2
Powershift
12‑1
3
Chief Wallabee
3‑1
4
Renegade
2‑1 (Favorite)
5
Ottinho
20‑1
6
Growth Equity
12‑1
7
Commandment
6‑1
8
Emerging Market
6‑1
9
Golden Tempo
9‑2
🔍 Top Storylines to Watch
⭐ 1. Renegade’s Redemption Arc
Renegade was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and finished second to Golden Tempo. He enters the Belmont as the 2‑1 favorite and profiles perfectly for the Derby‑length configuration at Saratoga.
⭐ 2. Golden Tempo Goes for Two
The Derby winner shocked the world at 23‑1, and now he tries to win his second Triple Crown race from the far outside post. His late kick makes him dangerous at 1¼ miles.
⭐ 3. A Deep Derby Rematch
Five Derby runners return:
Golden Tempo (1st)
Renegade (2nd)
Chief Wallabee (4th)
Commandment (7th)
Emerging Market (10th)
This is one of the strongest returning groups in recent Belmont history.
⭐ 4. The Underdog Trend
Underdogs have dominated the Triple Crown season:
Golden Tempo won the Derby at 23‑1
Napoleon Solo won the Preakness at 8‑1
This field is top‑heavy, but recent chaos suggests a longshot could still pop.
🐴 Contenders & Dark Horses
🥇 Renegade (2‑1) — The deserving favorite
Powerful, consistent, and built for this distance. The horse to beat.
🥈 Golden Tempo (9‑2) — The Derby champ
Outside post is tricky, but his closing speed makes him a major threat.
🥉 Chief Wallabee (3‑1) — The steady grinder
Fourth in the Derby and well‑drawn. A logical top‑three pick.
📌 Race Details
Date: Saturday, June 6, 2026
Post Time: 7:04 p.m. ET
Location: Saratoga Race Course
Distance: 1¼ miles
Purse: $2 million
Prediction:
I am coming in hot to fade Golden Tempo today. Maybe he shows, but I think that this race will not have the massive pace that the Kentucky derby did before melting down at the last turn. The horse that I like the most is the favorite in the 4 horse Renegade. The Kentucky Derby did him no favors at the one post and the four will work out much better. I also like the 3 horse Chief Wallabee as he has the speed and enduracne to place in the race. The 7 horse Commandment did nothing wrong minus having a bad race in the Kentucky Derby. His four wins in a row including at Gulfstream at the Florida Derby tell me he will contend. Finally, I have to get on the 8 horse in Emerging Market. Flavian Pratt is a great jockey who had choice of the three Chad Brown horses in this race. My ticket will be exacta heavy with a $2 trifecta for a total of $134
After a crazy start to the season we’ve leveled off a bit here in MLB. We are still well up for the year with a 244-235-12 overall record putting us at +55.38 Units on MLB for the season. Hoping to get us back on track this week and grow the number. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com.
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX where the Rangers (30-32) will host the Cleveland Guardians (36-28 ) at 8:15 ET. The current line sits with the Guardians as slight favorites at -119 (Rangers +109) with an Over/Under of 7.5 juiced over -115. Game time temp is whatever they set the indoor field thermostat at as the roof will be closed.
The Rangers will roll out Kumar Rocker tonight who is finally putting up some decent ERA figures in his third MLB season sitting at 3.54 across 54 IP. He hasn’t really lived up to the hype of being a third overall pick. He currently has a K-rate at 7.07 per 9 innings and a walk rate at 4.02. Not a great ratio. He has been a little lucky with opponents sporting a .268 BABIP against him and a HR/FB% of only 8.5 compared to 13.0% for his career. That lands his xFIP almost a full run higher than his actual ERA checking in at 4.48.
Parker Messick will start for the Guardians and he has been nothing short of fantastic in his first full season in the Bigs. He is currently sporting a 2.21 ERA with 9.61 strikeouts per 9, and a 2.73 BB/9. His xFIP is also a full run higher at 3.21, which is still very good as he has been lucky so far on strand rate (85.6%) and BABIP against (.276).
Both of these teams have struggled offensively with the Rangers holding a .694 OPS and the Guardians a .693 which is good for 25th and 26th in MLB. They are also both worse against the pitching side they are facing today with the Guardians at .677 against Righties and the Rangers an awful .636 against Lefties. Cleveland is 21st at 4.13 runs per game and Texas is 24th at 4.02.
Both bullpens have been solid with the Rangers holding a slight edge sitting with a bullpen ERA of 3.33, but they struggled the last few weeks. Cleveland has a bullpen ERA of 3.72. The Rangers bullpen has fresher key pieces with none of their top three guys pitching the last two days The Guardians have Cade Smith fresh only pitching once in the last week, but three of their top guys pitched on Tuesday and Wednesday. That being said they should all be available today.
So what’s the handicap? Quite frankly I believe in Kumar Rocker regression coming on quick. His K/BB ratio isn’t going to continue to hold up producing the results they have thus far. His slider and fastball pitch values are both much improved vs his career numbers, but he isn’t fooling anyone with them. His Outside zone swing percentage is below league average at 29.6% as is his whiff rate at 10.1%. Messick hasn’t gone super deep in most of his games only completing 6+IP four times in twelve starts, but has only allowed more than two earned runs twice and it hasn’t happened since May 3rd. Both the times it happened were against teams who hit lefties very well in the Astros and A’s. The Rangers also haven’t faced a lefty starter in almost two weeks and the last one they did was Reid Detmers who mowed down 14 Rangers allowing one run over 8IP.
Guardians -119, 2 Units. Guardians RL -1.5 +140 1 Unit.
The NFC South once again finished as the weakest division in football. Three teams tied at eight wins, each seemingly trying their hardest not to make the playoffs, while Carolina backed in and promptly exited against the Rams.
This division was chaotic:
Carolina beat the Rams, won at Lambeau, and swept Atlanta…
…yet lost twice to the Saints and fell to Arizona.
Tampa Bay started hot, then collapsed.
Atlanta flashed talent but couldn’t overcome coaching.
New Orleans looked lost for most of the year.
And now? The NFC South draws both the NFC North and AFC North, two of the league’s toughest divisions. Respect will not come easy.
Profile: One of the league’s weakest teams by EPA and Success Rate. No hidden strengths.
Metric
Value
Rank
Off EPA/play
-0.076
27th
Def EPA/play
-0.051
10th
Off Success Rate
42.4%
26th
Def Success Rate
41.9%
8th
Off Pass EPA
-0.032
27th
Def Pass EPA
0.018
12th
🧠 Division Takeaways
No team ranked top‑10 in any major metric.
Three teams finished bottom‑10 in offensive EPA.
New Orleans graded bottom‑7 across the board.
Carolina had the only semi‑respectable defense.
The division is “wide open” only because it’s flat, not strong.
Division Odds:
Buccaneers +160
Saints +265
Panthers +310
Falcons +450
🔥 Team‑by‑Team Breakdown
1. 🦅 Atlanta Falcons
Vegas Win Total: 6.5 (Over -115) 2025 Wins: 8 Pythagorean Wins: 6.9 Schedule: Medium (49ers, Chiefs, Commanders) Power Rating: 1 My Number:8.81 wins
Key Losses
Raheem Morris, Kaden Elliss, Kirk Cousins, Tyler Allgeier, Dee Alford, Arnold Ebiketie, Elijah Wilkinson, Darnell Mooney, David Onyemata, Leonard Floyd
Key Additions
Kevin Stefanski, Jeff Ulbrich, Tua Tagovailoa, Jahan Dotson, Jawaan Taylor, Olamide Zaccheaus, Austin Hooper, Da’Shawn Hand, Samson Ebukam, Brian Robinson, Christian Harris
Draft
Avieon Terrell, Zachariah Branch, Kendal Daniels
Summary
Atlanta has long been a talented roster dragged down by poor coaching. Firing Raheem Morris was overdue, and while Kevin Stefanski isn’t a home‑run hire, he’s a clear upgrade.
Michael Penix’s injury derailed the season, but he returns for 2026 — and signing Tua Tagovailoa gives Atlanta a stylistic match as insurance.
The roster has few holes outside WR, and the defense should remain strong under Ulbrich. Terrell at 48 was a steal. The schedule is tough, but the Falcons gain +7 net rest days.
Mike Evans, Jamel Dean, Logan Hall, Christian Izien, Rachaad White, Hasson Reddick, Lavonte David, Greg Gaines
Key Additions
Alex Anzalone, Kenneth Gainwell, A’Shawn Robinson, Al‑Quadin Muhammad, Miles Killebrew, Danny Smith
Draft
Rueben Bain Jr., Josiah Trotter, Ted Hurst, Keionte Scott
Summary
Tampa Bay is the definition of mediocrity. They started 6–2 last year with wins over elite teams, then collapsed. Losing Mike Evans — the heartbeat of their red‑zone offense — is massive.
The run game was dreadful (25th in rush EPA), and the defense regressed against quality opponents. Zac Robinson is a slight upgrade at OC, but the secondary is a concern after losing Dean.
Action:
Lean Under 8.5 wins
3. 🐾 Carolina Panthers
Vegas Win Total: 7.5 (Under -130) 2025 Wins: 8 Pythagorean Wins: 6.6 Schedule: Hard (Eagles, Broncos, Seahawks) Power Rating: -0.5 My Number:7.3 wins
Key Losses
A’Shawn Robinson, Cade Mays, Rico Dowdle, DJ Wonnum, Yosh Nijman, Brady Christiansen
Key Additions
Jaelan Phillips, Devin Lloyd, Rasheed Walker, Kenny Pickett, Luke Fortner
Draft
Monroe Freeling, Lee Hunter, Chris Brazzell II, Will Lee
Summary
Carolina was wildly inconsistent — capable of beating playoff teams yet losing to bottom‑feeders.
But they crushed free agency and the draft:
Brazzell is a 6’4 burner with WR1 traits
Freeling may be the best tackle in his class
Phillips is a major upgrade off the edge
Lloyd fills a real need
The schedule is brutal, but they gain +8 net rest days. Bryce Young’s continued growth is the key.
Action:
Lean Under 7.5 wins, but look to back them as big underdogs.
We have a great show for you today! Shawn Knoche @TheGreatKnoche joins us to discuss the last leg of the triple crown! The guys get into the race and their thoughts on the field. What’s the weather like? Who are the favorites? Any sleepers worth considering? How are we constructing out tickets? Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have a great show for you today! Chicago sports radio legend Mike North @North2North is back to break down some baseball and some NFL! First, Kiev get’s into his NFC south preview with a Best Bet! Next, Mike comes on and the guys get right into baseball. How is that ABS system working? What’s wrong with the Cubs. What’s up with the Sox? Then, the boys get into the NFC North. Can the Bears repeat? Which teams might regress. After that, the boys talk more about the Bears stadium issues. Finally, Mike and Kiev talk a little about every division in the NFL! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2026
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
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San Antonio Spurs guard Dejounte Murray dunks during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Los Angeles Lakers, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2019, in San Antonio. Los Angeles won 103-96. (AP Photo/Darren Abate)
Model Prediction: Yankees win by 0.3 runs; 53% win probability (SportsGrid)
🔍 Key Storylines
⭐ Yankees: Red‑hot momentum
New York has won five straight, including an 8–2 win over Oakland the night before.
Their offense is rolling:
Aaron Judge leads with 17 HR.
Ben Rice hitting .303 with 39 RBI.
The Yankees’ pitching staff owns a 3.12 ERA, one of the best in the AL.
🟢 Athletics: Competitive but inconsistent
Oakland sits 10–16 at home and has struggled when allowing home runs — but they’re 11–6 when they allow none.
Shea Langeliers is producing at the plate (.292 AVG, 13 HR).
J.T. Ginn has quietly been excellent since joining the rotation (2.89 ERA over last 9 starts).
🔑 Matchup Factors
Pitching Duel
Both starters have nearly identical ERAs (3.14 vs. 3.19), suggesting a tight early game.
Weathers’ strikeout ability vs. a contact‑leaning A’s lineup
Ginn’s recent form gives Oakland a real chance to keep it close
Offense vs. Offense
Yankees: More power, deeper lineup, hotter recent form
Athletics: Less explosive but more opportunistic when keeping the ball in the park
Momentum
Yankees: 5 straight wins
Athletics: 4 losses in last 5
Prediction:
I like the A’s to start out hot in this one. This team was blown out last night and will be hungry for some runs.
As good as Yankee’s pitcher Ryan Weather’s has been, the As have been hitting well this year, and the Pitching advantage actually goes to J.T. Ginn who is boasting a 3.14 ERA with only 23 walks over 53 innings. His 48 strikeouts stand out.
I do not like the Full game so much as the A’s bullpen is beatup, but I think that there is value here in the 1st 5 innings.
The NFC North once again enters the season as one of the NFL’s premier divisions. Much like 2024 and 2025, all four teams remain competitive, and remarkably, no team finished below .500 last season. That level of parity is rare in a 17‑game schedule and speaks to the depth and coaching quality across the division.
For 2026, Vegas projects another tight race: the lowest win total is Minnesota at 8.5, meaning every team is expected to contend. These teams will beat each other up, but the scheduling gods were relatively kind. The division draws the AFC East (two strong teams, two weak ones) and the NFC South, which is favorable. The gap between a first‑place and last‑place schedule remains meaningful, and as always, health and turnover luck will shape the final standings.
Interestingly, Pythagorean win totals from 2025 paint a different picture than the standings, flipping the order to Lions / Vikings / Packers / Bears. Coaching matters, but so do turnovers—and the NFC gets the extra home game this season, which could help.
🧠 2025 NFC North Advanced Metrics (With Full NFL Rankings)
(Based 100% on the table you provided — no guessing, no old data)
🐻 Chicago Bears — 2025 Advanced Rankings
Metric
Value
Rank (of 32)
Off EPA/play
0.076
8th
Def EPA/play
0.035
21st
Off Success Rate
45.7%
13th
Def Success Rate
47.2%
26th
Off Pass EPA
0.122
12th
Def Pass EPA
0.088
20th
Profile: Above‑average offense (top‑12 EPA), average defense, below‑average pass defense.
Profile: Bottom‑5 offense, bottom‑5 defense by EPA, but top‑10 pass defense and top‑10 defensive success rate — classic Flores bend‑don’t‑break.
Odds to Win the Division
Lions +180
Packers +215
Bears +310
Vikings +500
1. Chicago Bears
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 2025 Wins: 11 Pythagorean Wins: 8.04 Schedule Difficulty: Medium‑Hard At‑Large Games: vs Eagles, @ Seahawks, vs Jaguars Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
OC Declan Doyal, WR DJ Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds, S Kevin Byard, S Jaquan Brisker, S Chauncey Gardner‑Johnson, CB Nayshon Wright, DL Andrew Billings
Key Additions
S Coby Bryant, DL Neville Gallimore, CB Cam Lewis, WR Kalif Raymond
Draft Class
S Dillon Theineman, C Logan Jones, TE Sam Roush, WR Savion Thomas, CB Malik Muhammad, LB Keyshawn Elliott
Summary
The Bears were one of the league’s biggest stories in 2025. Nicknamed the Cardiac Bears, they repeatedly played poorly for three quarters only to storm back in the fourth. That late‑game magic helped them overperform dramatically: 11 wins vs. 8.04 expected wins, driven by +22 turnover differential, strong coaching from Ben Johnson, and clutch play from Caleb Williams.
But sustainability is a concern.
Chicago suffered major losses in the secondary and at linebacker. First‑round pick Dillon Theineman will be asked to fill big shoes immediately. DC Dennis Allen returns to a defense that ranked 21st in EPA, struggling against both the run and pass. Getting TJ Edwards healthy helps, but depth remains thin.
Offensively, losing DJ Moore hurts, but the WR room is still talented with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden. The offensive line is solid, though LT remains a worry with Braxton Jones and Ozzy Trapilo.
From a scheduling standpoint, Chicago faces the 6th‑hardest slate based on opponent win totals and the worst schedule against opposing pass efficiency. The silver lining: they have +15 net rest days, the best in the league, and avoid opponents coming off byes or mini‑byes.
Projection: 9.02 wins Action: Lean Under
2. Green Bay Packers
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 (Under -140) 2025 Wins: 9.5 Pythagorean Wins: 9.31 Schedule Difficulty: Medium At‑Large Games: vs Cowboys, @ Rams, vs Texans Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
DC Jeff Hafley, QB Malik Willis, WR Romeo Doubs, LB Quay Walker, C Elgton Jenkins, LT Rasheed Walker, CB Nate Hobbs, CB Trevon Diggs
Key Additions
DC Jonathan Gannon, DT Javon Hargrave, CB Benjamin St‑Juste, QB Tyrod Taylor
Draft Class
CB Brandon Cissee, DL Chris McClellan, Edge Dani Dennis‑Sutton
Summary
The Packers once again fell short of expectations, and frustration is growing—especially with repeated postseason failures against the Bears. The blockbuster Micah Parsons trade cost them significant draft capital, leaving their first pick at No. 52. Parsons’ health will be a major storyline.
The offensive line took major hits with the departures of Jenkins and Rasheed Walker. The secondary also lost key contributors, and replacing Quay Walker won’t be easy. Jonathan Gannon takes over as DC; while he excelled in Philadelphia, his Arizona tenure was rocky.
The good news: the skill positions remain loaded with Matthew Golden, Jayden Hicks, and Christian Watson. Jordan Love continues to develop, and the team’s floor remains high.
Green Bay is still an above‑average team with a strong coaching staff, but the roster is thinner than in previous years.
Projection: 9.41 wins Action: No Play
3. Detroit Lions
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 2025 Wins: 9 Pythagorean Wins: 9.96 Schedule Difficulty: Easiest in NFL At‑Large Games: @ Cardinals, vs Titans, vs Giants Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
OC John Morton, LB Alex Anzalone, CB Amik Robertson, DL DJ Reader, DL Roy Lopez, LT Taylor Decker, C Graham Glasgow, multiple edge rushers
Key Additions
OC Drew Petzing, C Cade Mays, RT Larry Borom, CB Rock Ya‑Sin, Edge DJ Wonnum
Draft Class
T Blake Miller, Edge Derrick Moore, LB Jimmy Rolder
Summary
Detroit’s competitive window is narrowing—not because of talent, but because the roster is now expensive and difficult to maintain. The offense still boasts elite playmakers in Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon‑Ra St. Brown, but the offensive line suffered major losses.
Hiring Drew Petzing as OC is questionable; his track record doesn’t inspire confidence.
Defensively, losing Alex Anzalone and several key linemen weakens a unit that already struggled. Regression is likely.
The saving grace: Detroit has the easiest schedule in the league based on opponent win totals. If they stay healthy, they can still contend for the division, but the margin for error is shrinking.
Projection: 9.48 wins Action: Lean Under 10.5
4. Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 2025 Wins: 9 Pythagorean Wins: 9.37 Schedule Difficulty: Medium At‑Large Games: vs Colts, vs 49ers, vs Washington Power Rating: 1
Key Losses
DL Jonathan Allen, WR Jalen Nailor, DL Javon Hargrave, S Harrison Smith, CB Jeff Okudah
The Vikings enter 2026 with one of the strangest quarterback transitions in recent memory—moving on from a QB who went on to win a Super Bowl elsewhere. Yet Minnesota quietly became one of the league’s most underrated teams late last season, winning five straight and leapfrogging Detroit for third place.
Unfortunately, that success saddles them with a tougher schedule, including the 49ers instead of the Cardinals.
The biggest question is at quarterback:
Can Kyler Murray recapture his early‑career form?
Is JJ McCarthy just average, or something more?
If either answer is positive, this roster has upside.
DC Brian Flores engineered a top‑3 defense in EPA, while the offense ranked 28th. Even modest offensive improvement could make Minnesota a playoff contender. They didn’t lose much outside the defensive line, and if their draft picks contribute early, this team could surprise.
Projection: 8.87 wins Action: Vikings to Make Playoffs +166 (0.5 stars)
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to break down the NFC North! First, Kiev talks about the summer and the direction of sports betting for folks to get better deals. Next, we get into the NFC North preview for 2026! What are the divisional odds? Which teams lost a bunch of production? Which teams overachieved from 2025? Which teams have the hardest and the easiest schedules? We answer these questions and much more during the show. We also have a Best Bet! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2026
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
