The Patriots out-gained the Bills 385 to 349 yet lost 35-31. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone defense crushed Dave Portnoy and his way too early rants.
The Ravens only out-gained the Bengals 317 to 298 yet won 24-0. A 2-1 turnover ratio and terrible red zone offense and defense crushed Joe Burrow.
The Seahawks out-gained the Colts 314 to 215 yet only won 18-16. They won the turnover battle 1-0, but poor red zone and special teams got the quacks.
The Cowboys out-gained the Vikings 423 to 327 yet lost 34-26. They won the turnover battle 1-0, yet bad special teams and red zone got dem boys.
We have a great show for you today! Tony George comes on to break down some big college football games! First, Kiev goes into his bowl predictions from Dec 18th – Dec 24th. Next, Tony comes on and the guys get right into some Nebraska and Wisconsin talk. Then, we talk about how to bet bowl games and what to do when new information comes out. After that, the boys talk some college football playoffs and early bowls with some free plays and some best bets! Next, the guys give out a beer money bet that could make the weekend full of fun. After that, Kiev talks some sharp money movement for the weekend and recaps our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have a GREAT show for you today! Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who could bet flat? Who has long or short rest? After that, we break down some bowl games and give out some Free Plays for the week! Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football injuries, waivers, sleepers & busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week.
It is the most wonderful time of the year. I do not mean the Holidays; I mean Bowl Season! Throw most records out the window and dive into transfer portal and opt-out news as these will be the most important thing when into betting bowl games. As lines have already begun to move, it might be in our best interest to be patient before making any bets. I will break down each game and give the bets I am looking to make. Be sure to double-check availability reports before making wagers to ensure you are betting on a team that the players are showing up for.
Salute to Veterans Bowl: Troy Trojans (8-5, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-5, 7-1 CUSA)
Location: Montgomery, AL
Date, Time, Channel: December 16th, 9:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Analysis: I do not have a great feel on this one as both teams had easy schedules, Troy was 96th and Jax St was 126th in strength of schedule. Before the bowl matchups being announced I wanted to fade all the Conference USA teams, however this a great matchup for the Gamecocks and the nation’s leading rusher Cam Cook. There is a lot of uncertainty in what we will be getting from the Trojans offense as Goose Crowder has been in and out of games all season long and his status for this game remains uncertain. I have not made to the window on this one and at this point I am leaning more towards the Gamecocks anticipating a big game from Cam Cook.
Pick: Lean Jax ST (+2.5)
Cure Bowl: Old Dominon Monarchs (9-3, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs South Florida Bulls (9-3, 6-2 American)
Location: Orlando, FL
Date, Time, Channel: December 17th, 5:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Key opt outs: ODU: Starting QB Colton Joseph USF: Starting QB Byrum Brown
Line: Open: USF -7.5 Current: USF -3.5
Analysis: Throughout most of the year the Bulls were the favorite to be the group of five representative in the Playoff. It must be a real gut punch seeing two group of 5 teams in the playoffs as they head east a couple of hours to play in the Cure bowl. In addition to Byrum Brown sitting this one out the some of the Bulls top receivers Chas Nimrod and Christian Neptune have been injured the last few weeks so I cannot imagine we see either of them playing in this one. Hence why my key matchups were the team’s rushing efficiencies as both starting Quarterbacks will not be participating. This is one to watch for additional opt-outs as a lot of the USF staff have bailed to Auburn. The Bulls do not seem to have much to play for or many coaches left to play for as opposed to the Monarchs who should be much more motivated to play in any bowl game. ODU certainly had a few stinkers this year but, when they played up in competition, they certainly stepped up keeping it close against Indiana and destroying Virginia Tech. I have bet this one even though I am not getting the best of the number.
Pick: Old Dominion (+3.5)
68 Ventures Bowl: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (6-6,5-3 Sun Belt) vs Delaware Blue Hens (6-6, 4-4)
Location: Mobile, AL
Date, Time, Channel: December 17th, 8:30 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 58 degrees, Wind 5.4 MPH, Partly Cloudy
ATS Trends: ULL (6-6,1-3 Favorite) DEL (4-7-1,3-2-1 Underdog)
Key Matchups: UL Rush Offense (29th YPG nationally) vs DEL Rush Defense (89th YPG nationally). DEL Pass offense (6th YPG nationally) vs UL Defense (87th YPG nationally)
Key opt outs: N/A
Line: Open: ULL (-3.5) Current (-3)
Analysis: It is worth mentioning this is Delaware’s first bowl game since they made their move to FBS this season. I just do not know how much trust we put into any Conference USA team,Our second of three Sunbelt vs Conference USA matchups. If three is not enough, do not worry, we will have more next week. Both teams needed a win in their final game to reach bowl eligibility with the Blue Hens needing some teams opting out to make their way to bowl season. The Ragin’ Cajuns got a little hot down the stretch winning their last four games. They did not stop anyone, but they did out score them. The Blue Hens have been an up and down team all year. You cannot really count on their defense, but you can count on the offense. The over might be another good look here it has just begun to run up on us a bit. I am leaning towards the hot hand in the Ragin’ Cajun keep an eye on their starting QB. If Lunch Winfield does not play it is a stay away.
Pick: Lean UL (-3)
Xbox Bowl: Missouri State Bears (7-5, 5-3 CUSA) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt)
Location: Frisco, TX
Date, Time, Channel: December 18th, 9:00 PM/EST, ESPN 2
Weather: 48 degrees, Wind 4.5 MPH, Overcast
ATS Trends: MOST (7-5, 3-3 Underdog), ARKST (7-4-1, 2-2 Favorite)
Key Matchups: MOST passing offense (22nd YPG nationally) vs ARKST Passing Defense (99th YPG nationally). ARKST Passing Offense (35th YPG nationally) vs MOST Pass Defense (75th YPG nationally)
Key opt outs: N/A
Line: Open: ARKST (-2.5) Current: ARKST (-1.5)
Analysis: Just what I was hoping for this week, another Sun belt vs Conference USA matchup. What are the chances that both teams are .500 against the spread from their respective positions? We can expect that both veteran quarterbacks in this one Jacob Clark for the Bears and Jaylen Raynor for the Red Wolves should have huge games. I should get my sanity checked because I am leaning toward the Conference USA team in this one. The Red Wolves have had so many lucky wins this year including three one-point wins. The Bears, like the Blue Hens, are in the first year in FBS, which I believe adds motivation along with this being their Senior quarterback’s final game. The hook might matter in this one.
Pick: Missouri State +1.5
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Kennesaw State Owls (10-3, 7-1 CUSA) vs Western Michigan Broncos (9-4, 7-1 MAC)
Location: Conway, SC
Date, Time, Channel: December 19th, 11:00 AM/EST, ESPN
Key opt outs: WMU: Could opt out, if he does, we could get a better number DE Nadame Tucker (MAC Defensive Player of the Year)
Line: Opening/Current: WMU (-4)
Analysis: The champions of the worst two FBS conferences in America square off in Conway, SC. Nadame Tucker being out for the Broncos is a huge blow but, I still see this as a bad matchup for the Owls. The Owls live and die with the deep ball and even with Tucker out the Broncos D should be able to slow them down just enough. On the other side of the ball the Owls do not offer much resistance for the Broncos running game who just went wild in the MAC championship. I like the Broncos here to prove the MAC is not the worst conference in America.
Pick:Western Michigan (-4)
Gasparilla Bowl: Memphis Tigers vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
Location: Tampa, FL
Date, Time, Channel: December 19th, 2:30 PM/EST, ESPN
ATS Trends: MEM (8-4, 2-1 Underdog), NCST (6-6, 4-2 Favorite)
Key Matchups: MEM Pass offense (61st Nationally YPG) vs NC ST Pass Defense (134th Nationally YPG). MEM pass defense (84th nationally YPG) vs NC ST Pass Offense (48th nationally YPG)
Key opt outs: None confirmed yet, there could be several players on NC State and Memphis.
Line: Opening: NCST (-4.5) Current: NCST (-5.5)
Analysis: Who knows what the hell we will get in this one. Memphis is another team who aspired to be a playoff berth that will be playing in a bowl game without their Head Coach. The only thing we could anticipate is that we see both teams have the starting quarterback behind center. I do not feel good about either side of this one. I would lean toward NC State but, every time I bet against the Tigers Brendon Lewis somehow looks fully healthy when he has been battling an ankle injury for weeks. The over of 57.5 might be a look here, hard to know what to do with the Memphis coaching situation.
Pick: Lean NC ST (-5.5)
In summary I am betting on ODU (+3.5), MOST (+1.5), and WMU (+4) with leans on Jax State, UL and NC State depending on injury/opt-out news.
Ravens (6–7): Baltimore has lost two straight and desperately needs a win to keep its playoff hopes alive. If they win out, they can still capture the AFC North.
Bengals (4–9): Cincinnati is clinging to faint playoff hopes but mostly playing for pride. They upset the Ravens 32–14 on Thanksgiving night, showing they can still be dangerous.
🔑 Key Storylines
Quarterback Duel: Lamar Jackson vs. Joe Burrow is the headline. Jackson wants redemption after a rough outing in their last meeting, while Burrow is looking to re-establish rhythm in the passing game.
Recent History: The Bengals dominated the last matchup, but Baltimore has motivation to flip the script with the division still within reach.
Playoff Stakes: Baltimore controls its destiny—win out and they take the AFC North, regardless of what Pittsburgh does.
📊 Matchup Factors
Ravens Strengths: Mobile QB play, opportunistic defense led by Kyle Hamilton.
Bengals Strengths: Burrow-to-Chase connection, offensive explosiveness when healthy.
X-Factors: Turnovers will be critical. Baltimore’s defense thrives on creating them, while Cincinnati must protect Burrow and establish balance.
Bengals: Tee Higgins (concussion, out), PJ Jules (ankle, doubtful), Shemar Stewart (knee, out).
Prediction:
If there one team in the AFC North who has given the Ravens fits, it’s a Joe Burrow led Cincinnati Bengals team.
Over the last 10 games, the Bengals have won five of them straight up, and have covered the spread seven times.
I’ll get ahead of it right now. The Bengals rushing defense sucks ranking 30th in rush EPA. This is Baltimore’s path to victory.
In saying that, The Ravens defense hasn’t been all that only ranks 21st in EPA themselves.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson hasn’t exactly been himself lately only ranks 12th in QBR while his team ranks a mere 23rd in offensive EPA, while the Bengals rank 30th.
I do not love that there is no Tee Higgens in the game for the Bengals, but as long as there is Jamar Chase, this team should be fine.
The Bengals went into Baltimore and slapped the Ravens around. Why should I think that they can’t so this at home? This game should be a Pickem at best.
Bucked Up LA Bowl – Boise State vs. Washington -10 O/U 51.5 Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California) Time: 8 p.m. TV Network: ABC
Boise State’s Motivation: High – They get to play a Big 10 school in the same recruiting grounds.
Washington’s Motivation: Medium – They know how good Boise is and that they were a playoff team in 2024.
Home: None
Boise State Potential Opt-Outs
S Ty Benefield
LT Kage Casey (declared for NFL draft)
Boise State Injuries
CB A’Marion McCoy (missed final two games)
DT Dion Washington (missed finale)
WR Ben Ford (hasn’t played since Week 7)
Washington Potential Opt-Outs
RB Jonah Coleman
WR Denzel Boston
CB Tacario Davis
Washington Injuries
S Makell Esteen (missed finale)
OLB Isaiah Ward (last played in Week 8)
CB Tacario Davis (missed final two games)
C Landen Hatchett (hasn’t played since Week 11 due to a cast on snapping hand)
Net Yards Per Play: Washington +1.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: When looking here, two things look like they stick out. Washington has the better net yards per play ranking 15th in the nation, while having the better strength of schedule ranking 44th t Boise’s 82nd. I find it interesting though that Boise has a strong pass defense ranking 3rd in the nation. Will that be enough to stop Demond Williams?
Verdict: My cold number on this game is Washington -10, but I think that the motivation lies more with Boise State. When Washington stepped up in class, they got beat pretty bad against all teams in the top 25. Wait for a better number when Denzel Boston and Jonah Coleman get announced in this game.
Play: Lean Boise State +10 and a take at 10.5
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl – Troy vs. Jacksonville State +2.5 O/U 46.5 Location: Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama) Time: 9 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Troy’s Motivation: Medium Low – You do not get much for beating a conference USA team.
Jacksonville State’s Motivation: – Medium High – This team is still happy to be in the FBS.
Home: None – Both teams less than 125 miles away.
Troy Transfer Portal
Starting RB Tae Meadows
DE DJ Jackson (350 snaps)
Troy Injuries
LT Elijah Prather (last played in Week 7)
QB Goose Crowder is questionable.
Jacksonville State Injuries
LG Adrian Gumm (missed finale)
CB Tyrin Taylor (missed finale)
DT Jawaun Campbell (last played in Week 11)
Net Yards Per Play: Jacksonville State +1.21
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Despite the large disparity in strength of schedule with Troy ranking 93rd, and Jacksonville State ranking 142nd,
The Gamecocks run the ball well and rank 5th in rush attempts, while Troy struggles to defend the run ranking 81st in defensive rush EPA.
Verdict: This line is definitely off. Jacksonville State has the much better offense and should be motivated here.
Play: Jacksonville State +2.5 – 2 stars
Wednesday, Dec. 17
Staff DNA Cure Bowl – Old Dominion vs. South Florida -3.5 O/U 53.5 Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Time: 5 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Old Dominion’s Motivation: High – They get a chance to beat an AAC team that beat Florida.
South Florida’s Motivation: Low – They lost their shot at the playoffs and they lost their coach to Auburn.
Home: South Florida’s campus only 91 miles away so give the 2.5 points for that.
Old Dominion Opt-Outs
Starting QB Colton Joseph
Old Dominion Injuries
CB Botros Alisandro (last played in Week 10)
USF Opt-Outs
QB Byrum Brown
USF Injuries
S Tavin Ward (missed final two games)
CB James Chenault (last played in Week 11)
DE Dennard Flowers (missed finale)
WR Christian Neptune (last played in Week 12)
Net Yards Per Play: Even both at +2.0
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both quarterbacks are out, but I think that this hurts South Florida on a larger scale. Byrum Brown was the heart and soul of this Bulls team, and backup Gaston Moore hasn’t even sniffed much playing time. Each team is relatively equal in many aspects of the game minus strength of schedule which gives that edge to USF, and great QB play to the Bulls as well.
Verdict: Both teams run the ball quite well. The American Athletic conference was better than the Sun Belt. I think this number is close to correct at -3.5 until we see more opt outs. What I do notice is that both teams play fast with the Monarch’s ranking 21st in pace and USF ranking 2nd in pace
Louisiana’s Motivation: Medium Low – Probably just happy to make a bowl game.
Delaware’s Motivation: High – Their first bowl game in their first year of FBS football.
Home: Semi-home for Louisiana at 255 miles away, but just .5 as Delaware should travel for this.
Louisiana Injuries
FS Tyree Skipper (last played in Week 11)
C Cooper Fordham (missed finale)
Delaware Injuries
RB Jo Silver (returned in finale, but only played 23 snaps)
OG Patrick Shupp (last played in Week 11)
WR Ja’Carree Kelly (missed finale)
TE Connor Witthoft (last played in Week 11)
LB Dillon Trainer (last played in Week 11)
Net Yards Per Play: Louisiana +.19
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Delaware ranks 51st in offensive success rate while Louisiana ranks 114th. Both defenses ranks 88th and 89th in opponent EPA. Delaware has the passing advantage against a weak pass D, while Louisiana has the rushing advantage over a weak rush D as you can see from the above chart.
Verdict: It’s amazing how conference USA gets so disrespected in bowl games. Louisiana’s best win this year was probably against Texas State. They play close games when they win.
