We have a GREAT show for you today! Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who could bet flat? Who has long or short rest? After that, we break down some bowl games and give out some Free Plays for the week! Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football injuries, waivers, sleepers & busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week.
I am starting to see a trend. South Florida, Missouri State, and Memphis all lost and failed to cover after their coaches left. And good news for us every game this week has a team whose head coach has already left or been fired. Has Christmas come early?
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Washington State Cougars (6-6, 1-1 Pac 2) vs Utah State Aggies (6-6, 4-4 Mountain West)
Location: Boise, ID
Date, Time, Channel: December 22nd, 2:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 45 degrees, Wind 3mph, Cloudy
ATS Trends: WSU (8-4, 5-2 Underdog) USU (10-2, 4-1 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Utah State offense (46th Pass YPG, 54th Rush YPG) vs Washington State Defense (13th Pass YPG, 39th Rush YDS PG)
Line: Open: USU ( -1.5) O/U (57.5) Current: USU (-1) O/U (49.5)
Analysis: For the second year in a row the Cougars head into a bowl without their head coach. Last season Syracuse really took it to them in the Holiday Bowl with the skeleton crew Jake Dickert left behind when he took off to Wake Forest. I do not anticipate a complete beat down considering the Cougars will allow players in the transfer portal play in this game. Even with that considered, I am not sure I am ready to buck the trend of the coachless teams in bowl games especially when coaching against a great coach on the other sideline in Bronco Mendenhall. Coaching has really mattered in these games and the staff for the Aggies has been preparing for this game while the interim coach for the Cougars Jesse Bobbit is just biding his time until he can join the staff at Iowa State. I like the pig farmer Bryson Barnes to get the W in his last collegiate game.
Date, Time, Channel: December 23rd, 2:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 76 degrees, Wind 14 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH, Partly Cloudy
ATS Trends: Tol (9-3, 1-0 Underdog) UL (4-8, 2-7 Favorite)
Key Matchups: Who knows! Louisville has no idea who will be available at RB, WR and Toledo will most likely start a freshmen at QB and has several players in the transfer portal.
Key opt outs: Tol: 4-5 starters and also have an injured starting QB UL: Several starters including their Top wideout and running back preserving themselves for the draft. The roster for the Cardinals is up in the air!
Line: Open: UL (-8.5) O/U: 45.5 Current: UL (-6.5) O/U (44.5)
Analysis: I have no idea what to expect in this game. Louisville has their head coach but, not many playmakers left. Toledo does not have their coach and is going to missing a few players. Should we bet this game? Hell no! Will I bet this game? Probably but, I shouldn’t. The Cardinals will have their quarterback Miller Moss along with their Head Coach Jeff Brohm. This could be enough with a couple weeks of prep. I have faith in Brohm to scheme up a game plan to beat a MAC team by a measley touchdown. It is just a lean for me personally and anyone’s guess is as good as mine
Pick: Lean Louisville (-6.5)
New Orleans Bowl: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date, Time, Channel: December 23rd, 5:30 PM/EST, ESPN
Key opt outs: Nothing significant as of now. WKU coach Tyson Helton lets player in the portal play. USM is worth keeping an eye on as their head coach Charles Huff has moved-on to Memphis.
Analysis: Well, well, well, what do we have here? It has been too long since we had a Sun Belt vs Conference USA matchup. Shockingly, CUSA is up 2-1. We also have our third bowl game in a row with a head coach out, although this is one a little different as Southern Miss has promoted their Offensive Coordinator Blake Anderson to be the new Head Coach. Two teams with explosive offense and lackluster defenses should provide for a lot of fireworks and I will be looking to bet the over on this one. It has gotten a little high but, as long as Southern Miss does not have a lot of opt-outs it is worth a play. The Golden Eagles really fell apart down the stretch. They needed one win in their last three games to clinch a Sun Belt championship game appearance and they could not get it done. It is a little contrarian but, I also lean towards the Hilltoppers to get this one done. I love their Coach Tyson Helton and I think the continuity here will give them an edge.
Analysis: If you have watched any UNLV games this year you know you can count on scoring. The Bobcats are no slouch on the offensive side either. The Rebels are carrying a lot of momentum into this bowl game with Dan Mullen staying at the helm with commitments from his star quarterback Anthony Colandrea and star running back Jet Thomas to return next season. The same cannot be said about this Ohio Bobcats as the future of the program is shrouded in uncertainty after the departure of their head coach. Not all is lost as the Bobcats offensive stars running back Sieh Bangura and quarterback Parker Navarro are still with program. I expect a max effort here from the Bobcats but, I think the momentum the Rebels are carrying they will be looking to make a statement on what we can expect from them next season. I like the Rebs anything under a touchdown.
Pick: UNLV (-6.5)
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: California Golden Bears (7-5, 4-4 ACC) vs Hawai’i Warriors (8-4, 5-3 Mountain West)
Location: Honolulu, HI
Date, Time, Channel: December 24th, 8:00 PM/EST, ESPN
Weather: 76 degrees, Wind 15 MPH gusts up to 27 MPH, clear sky
Analysis: This might be the most Hawaiian Hawai’i bowl in the history of the game. Both starting quarterbacks are from Hawaii, Michael Alejado (HAW) and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (CAL) and the head coaches both played quarterback at Hawai’i Timmy Chang (HAW) and Nick Rolovich (CAL). Rolovich of course being an interim coach, there had to be one! I love the matchup and all parties will be amped to play in this one so the lack of motivation will not be a factor. The O/U has come down due to the wind but, you would expect all the Hawaiians will know how to handle it. I am going to bet the over but I am going to patien as the line is moving down. I expect both quarterbacks to really show out. The loss of Warriors top receiver will certainly hurt but, getting a home game on the island against a power 4 team is a position the Warriors love to be in. I am torn on the side right now. I love the Warriors and I love Cal’s young quarterback. I could see this game going either way. If the lines keeps moving toward Hawai’i I might be inclined to take the Bears but for now I will take the over.
PICK: 6 point Teaser: Eagles to -1 / Packers to +7.5 (-120) BetUS 1 star
The Eagles appear to have rebounded after a 3 game losing streak, against teams that were playing very well at the time. Washington has given Philly some trouble the past 2 or 3 seasons but I have watched Mariota enough in his career to know that he likely cannot beat this Eagles pass defense unless Philly just self-destructs.
-WSH defense #27 in yards per rush allowed
-WSH defense #32 in yards per pass allowed
-WSH 1.4 giveaways per game #25 in the NFL
-PHI defense #1 in QB completion % allowed\
-Mariota 54.8% completions last 3 gams
-Hurts 11 TD / 1 INT last 3 seasons vs WSH
Green Bay is battling some injuries, but still, this Bears defense, despite all of the take-aways, is giving up yards against good teams. The Bears are a bit fraudulent when you look at their wins and who they were against or when they faced the team. 2 biggest wins for the Bears were against Baltimore and Philly, both at their lowest points in the season. I can’t see Chicago running away from the Packers here.
-Love 69.9% completions career vs CHI, 9 TD / 2 INT
Matchup: Green Bay Packers (9‑4‑1) at Chicago Bears (10‑4)
Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
Kickoff: 5:20 PM MT
Broadcast: FOX
🌬️ Game Weather: Packers at Bears (Soldier Field)
Kickoff conditions will be classic December Chicago — cold, breezy, and football‑tough.
✅ Forecast Summary
Temperature at kickoff: ~35°F, but feels like mid‑20s due to wind chill
Wind: 15–18 mph from the SSW, gusts up to 20 mph
Precipitation:0% chance of snow or rain — dry but biting cold
End‑of‑game temp: Near freezing, real feel low‑20s
✅ Team Statistical Comparison
Category
Packers
Bears
Points/Game
24.9
26.1
Pass Yards/Game
224.9
217.2
Rush Yards/Game
117.0
152.2
Opponent Points/Game
19.9
24.1
Opponent Pass Yards
194.1
218.9
Opponent Rush Yards
100.5
126.6
🔥 What’s at Stake
The Bears (10–4) hold a half‑game lead in the NFC North.
The Packers (9–4–1) can leapfrog Chicago again—they beat them 28–21 just 13 days ago.
A Bears win gives them a 1.5‑game cushion with two weeks left.
Both teams remain in strong playoff contention, but the loser faces a tougher road.
🐻 Chicago Bears: Key Storylines
✅ Caleb Williams’ Growth
Chicago’s offense is top‑10 in scoring (26.1 PPG) and top‑5 in total yards—a massive leap from last season. Williams has been dynamic, but his late end‑zone interception sealed the loss in the last meeting. How he responds is the central question.
✅ Momentum
The Bears have won six of their last seven and were the NFC’s hottest team before the Week 14 loss at Lambeau.
✅ Home‑Field Edge
Cold, windy Soldier Field conditions are expected—classic Bears weather.
✅ Season Leaders
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love: 3,304 passing yards
Josh Jacobs: 890 rushing yards, 13 TD
Romeo Doubs: 578 receiving yards
Edgerrin Cooper: 104 tackles
Micah Parsons: 13 sacks (IR)
Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams: 3,150 passing yards
D’Andre Swift: 935 rushing yards, 7 TD
Rome Odunze: 661 receiving yards, 6 TD
Tremaine Edmunds: 89 tackles
Montez Sweat: 9 sacks
📊 Prediction
It’s pretty sad that both of these teams are still fighting for the playoffs at 10 wins while the Bucs, Panthers and Eagles are sitting with only 7.
We know of the devastating injury that the Packers sustained last week with Micah Parsons, but it’s not like the Bears are not banged up either with their best wide receiver in Rome Odunze on the shelf.
The Packers rank 3rd in offensive EPA to the Bears ranking 9th. The Bears are the better rushing team while the Packers are the better passing team.
The Bears have the better defense ranking 13th in EPA to the Packers ranking 16th. The Packers ironically are better at defending the rush while the Bears are better at defending the pass.
For me, this is more about a “what have you done for me lately type game.” Since week eight, the Bears rank 7th in offensive EPA while the Packers still sit at third. On defense, this is where the Bears have improved. Since week 11, this team has gotten healthier on D, and they rank 9th in defensive EPA to the Packers ranking 20th.
My power ratings have the Packers as the slightly better team, but the spot I think really screams Bears.
This Chicago team were one play away in Green Bay from a touchdown to at least tie or maybe win that game.
The Bears actually beat the Packers in the box score that day. I think that with NFL referee Alex Kemp who is on a historic favorites run going 27-3 straight up (stats courtesy of @NFLRefStats1), the Bears will have more edges then just their motivation and play on the field. Take Da Bears.
Bears ML -115 – 2 stars
Teaser:
Chargers to +8 with the Lions to -1 – 2 stars – The Chargers are playing for something while the Cowboys are pretty much shot when it comes to making the playoffs. The Steelers can afford to lose this game while the Lions cannot.
No. 9 Alabama vs No. 8 Oklahoma +1.5 O/U 40.5 Location: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman, Oklahoma) Time: 8 p.m. TV Network ABC, ESPN
All Motivated:
Home: Oklahoma
Alabama Injuries:
DE LT Overton
RB Jam Miller
TE Josh Cuevas
DT Kelby Collins
Oklahoma Injuries:
CB Gentry Williams (last played in Week 8)
C Jake Maikkula (missed finale)
LG Heath Ozaeta (last played in Week 9)
Net Yards Per Play: Oklahoma +.22
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Oklahoma’s offense is poor only ranking 94th in EPA to Alabama’s ranking 19th. Alabama’s pass offense is really their best method of success ranking 29th in pass EPA. The issue is that Oklahoma has the best defense in the SEC ranking 4th in defensive EPA. Both teams played a top 10 schedule.
Verdict: I think that Oklahoma’s offensive woes are based mainly on quarterback John Mateer’s injuries. Now that he should be fully healthy, I think that changes. Alabama has been leaking oil over the past four weeks or so, while Oklahoma has been heating up. The fact that they have home field advantage should do something for them. They also will have to have some success running the football as Alabama only ranks 54th in rush EPA. Oklahoma has the home field advantage and the better yards per play numbers. I am taking the sooners as Alabama will struggle here on the road.
Play: Oklahoma +1.5 – 2 stars
Saturday, Dec. 20
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M -3.5 O/U 51.5
Location: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas) Time: Noon TV Network: ABC, ESPN
All Motivated
Home: Texas A&M
Miami Injuries
CB Keionte Scott (stud; last played in Week 11)
NT David Blay Jr. (last played in Week 11)
CB OJ Frederique (last played Week 7)
Texas A&M Injuries
RB Le’Veon Moss (last played in Week 7)
S Bryce Anderson (last played in Week 7)
LB Scooby Williams (last played in Week 9)
Net Yards Per Play: Miami +.29
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Looking at the numbers, Miami seems to have all of the advanced stats their way. They ranks 12th n success rate to A&M ranking 30th, the Cane’s rank 9th in defensive EPA to the Aggies ranking 55th. Texas A&M is a terrible 134th in defensive explosiveness. This team allows big plays. The only X-factor here for the Aggies is if Miami can stop quarterback Marcel Reed.
Verdict: I think that Miami is live here. They have had 3 weeks to prepare for the dual threat quarterback while A&M has had the easiest SEC schedule. The only reason for this line is the SEC bias, and I think that Miami comes in and shows the world that they are very deserving of the college football playoffs. A&M does have the coaching advantage, which is something to consider, but that is the only reason why this isn’t a max play. I also like the under some.
Play: Miami +3.5 – 2 stars
No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss -17.5 O/U 56.5
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Mississippi) Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Network: TNT
All Motivated
Home: Ole Miss
Tulane Injuries
WR Bryce Bohanon
Ole Miss Injuries
CB Antonio Kite (last played in Week 12)
Ole Miss Coaching Changes
Lane Kiffin left to take the LSU job and will not be with the team during the College Football Playoff. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has taken over as the new head coach. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. will also stay with the team.
Net Yards Per Play: Ole Miss +.79
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing more key than the fact that Tulane played in an inferior conference and has already played at Ole Miss and lost by double digits. Ole Miss should have plenty of success running and passing the football with Trinidad Chambliss. Ole Miss ranks 14th in offensive EPA to Tulane ranking 57th on defense. If there is a path, Tulane needs to run the ball, but the the Green Wave only ranks 75th in rush EPA to the Rebels ranking 112th in opponent rush EPA.
Verdict: How nice that the committee set this up for a coachless Ole Miss team and gave A&M Miami. This game could get ugly as we have seen it before. If Tulane is down, they will have some serious problems trying to play catchup as Ole Miss ranks 12th in opponent pass EPA. I will say that there is a lot of variance in this game being that Lane Kiffen left for LSU. As of right now, I have a strong lean to Ole Miss, but will wait.
Play: Lean Ole Miss -17.5
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon -21 O/U 50.5
Location: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Oregon) Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Network: TNT
All Motivated
Home: Oregon
James Madison Injuries
DT Immanuel Bush (missed conference title game)
Oregon Injuries
WR Dakorien Moore (last played in Week 9) but practiced this week.
WR Gary Bryant Jr. (last played in Week 11) but practiced this week.
Net Yards Per Play: Oregon +.59
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Another huge discrepancy in strength of schedule with Oregon’s ranking 17th to James Madison’s ranking 105th. The Ducks have a blazing offense ranking 2nd in EPA to the Duke’s ranking 34th on offense. The Ducks have the biggest net yards per play out of any college football team.
Verdict: This could be a serious ass kicking as the Ducks are the much more talented and skilled team. I also have to imagine that the guys remember their playoff loss to Ohio State from 2024 and will be very motivated to win this game. I like both the full game number and the 1st half, but I will only pick one.
Play: Oregon 1st half -11.5 – 2 stars
College Bowls Dec 18th – Dec 24th
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl – Missouri State vs. Arkansas State -1.5 O/U 54.5 Location: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas) Time: 9 p.m. TV Network: ESPN2
Missouri State’s Motivation: High – They made a bowl game in their first year of FBS play.
Arkansas State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Probably just happy to be there.
Home: I could see Missouri State fans showing up here so I give them 1 point.
Missouri State Transfer Portal
Starting C Cash Hudson
Missouri State Injuries
DT Ryan Williams (last played in Week 12)
DE Mitchell Toney (last played in Week 12)
Arkansas State Injuries
LG Tristian Smith (stud; last played in Week 10)
Net Yards Per Play: Missouri State +1.13
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both of these defenses are pretty bad ranking in the bottom 40 in yards per play and success rate. Both offenses rank in the top 29 in passing play percentage as they love to air out the ball. Arkansas State ranks 10th in pace of play while Missouri State ranks 90th.
Verdict: I honestly do not see how either team stops each other on defense. Both teams struggle to stop anything while this game is being played at the Ford Center which is a fast track in Texas. No weather will mess this game up. I love the over here.
Play: Over 54.5 – 2 stars
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine – Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan -3.5 O/U 49.5 Location: Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina) Time: 11 a.m. TV Network: ESPN
Kennesaw State’s Motivation: High – Won the conference in their second year and they get to play in their first bowl game.
Western Michigan’s Motivation: Medium Low – They won the MAC and probably will just use this to celebrate.
Home: None, as I could see a few fans from both. Conway still over 350 miles away from Atlanta.
Kennesaw State Potential Opt-Outs
CB Caleb Offord
Kennesaw State Transfer Portal
All-CUSA CB JeRico Washington (plans to play in bowl game)
Kennesaw State Injuries
S Antonio Stevens (barely played final three games)
LB Garland Benyard (last played in Week 9)
Western Michigan Potential Opt-Outs
DE Nadame Tucker
Net Yards Per Play: Even both at about +.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both of these teams are pretty equal from my perspective. The Owls has the Better offense while the Broncos have the better defense. Some think that the MAC is better than conference USA, but I think that they are pretty close to equal.
Verdict: I honestly think that the motivation lies with the Owls here. As equal teams, how can I not take the three points.
Play: Kennesaw State +3.5 – 2 stars
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl – Memphis vs. NC State -4.5 O/U 57.5 Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida) Time: 2:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Memphis Motivation: Low – They lost their coach to Arkansas, and had higher hopes of playoffs.
NC State’s Motivation: Medium – This team got better as the season went on. They will show up here.
Home: None
Memphis Injuries
RT Travis Burke (stud; missed finale)
CB Jaidyn Denis (last played in Week 10)
CB Chauncey Logan (last played in Week 11; hurt most of year)
QB Brendon Lewis was a bit banged up to end the year
Memphis Coaching Changes
Head coach Ryan Silverfield left to take the Arkansas job. DB coach Reggie Howard will serve as the interim for the bowl game following the hire of new head coach Charles Huff from Southern Miss.
NC State Potential Opt-Outs
TE Justin Joly
RB Hollywood Smothers
DT Brandon Cleveland
CB Devon Marshall
LT Jacarrius Peak
NC State Injuries
LG Kamen Smith (last played in Week 12)
CB Jamel Johnson (last played in Week 12)
Net Yards Per Play: Memphis +.81
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Say what you want about the ACC, but nothing is more key than a strength of schedule ranking 94th for Memphis and 30th for NC State. It’s hard to differentiate stats here, so we have to go to motivation and who is playing in this game.
Verdict: This situation is just too weird for Memphis. They wanted to make the playoffs and blew it vs Tulane. They also lost their coach to Arkansas while the Interim won’t even be the guy for the next season. As long as everyone stays, this should be a statement game for the Wolfpack.
Play: NC State -4.5 – 2 stars
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Washington State vs. Utah State -2.5 O/U 52.5 Location: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho) time: 2 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Washington State’s motivation: Medium Low – Not the greatest destination, but they will want to win against a NEW Pac-12 conference opponent. Interim coach Jesse Bobbitt will try and get them going.
Utah State’s Motivation: Medium – Shitty location, yet they get get a new Pac-12 opponent.
Home: None
Washington State Transfer Portal
CB Kenny Worthy (384 snaps)
LB Anthony Palano (382 snaps)
Backup QB Jaxson Potter (164 snaps)
WR Tony Freeman (557 yards, 3 TDs)
Palano started early in season, but saw his playing time decrease as the year progressed due to tackling issues.
Washington State Injuries
C Brock Dieu (missed finale)
WR Carter Pabst (last played in Week 13)
Washington State Coaching Changes
Jimmy Rogers left to take the head coach position at Iowa State. He will not stay with the team for the bowl, which means there is an increased chance of opt-outs, portal movement and other coaches going with him.
DC Jesse Bobbit will serve as the interim head coach.
Utah State Transfer Portal
Starting WR Braden Pegan (767 snaps)
Utah State Injuries
TE Broc Lane (missed finale)
Net Yards Per Play: Utah State +.59
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Utah State clearly has the better offense, but Washington State definitely has the better defense ranking 46th in opponent EPA while Utah State ranks 93rd. Washington State has had the harder and somewhat weirder schedule. Washington state ranks 3rd in defensive explosiveness which should counteract Utah State ranking 19th in explosiveness.
Verdict: I think that more and more Cougars could possibly sit out this game or transfer. I just can’t trust a play this early in the game, but at the current numbers, I would lean WASU.
Play: Lean WASU +2.5
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl – Toledo vs. Louisville -6.5 O/U 44.5 Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida) Time: 2 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Toledo’s Motivation: Medium Low – This team at least gets a power four school, but no coach yet and a lot of question marks.
Louisville’s Motivation: Low – As a former college student, I vote to party over prepping for this weak ass bowl game.
Home: None
Toledo Transfer Portal
DE Malachi Davis (442 snaps)
Toledo Potential Opt-Outs
S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (headed to Senior Bowl)
CB Avery Smith
CB Andre Fuller
S Nasir Bowers
RB Chip Trayanum
WR Junior Vandeross III
Toledo Injuries
LG Carter Fouty
Toledo Coaching Changes
Jason Candle took the UConn opening, so QB coach Robert Weiner will serve as interim.
Louisville Potential Opt-Outs
QB Miller Moss
WR Chris Bell
RB Isaac Brown
DE Clev Lubin
Louisville Injuries
WR Chris Bell
RB Isaac Brown
RB Keyjuan Brown
RB Duke Watson
S Antonio Watts
LB Stanquan Clark
Net Yards Per Play: Toledo +1.09
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing is more key than the potential opt outs, and the strength of schedule difference of Toledo ranking 130th and Louisville ranking 45th. Toledo has a great defense in the Mac, but I doubt they stop Jeff Brohm’s squad here if they all decide to play.
Verdict: All and all, this is another one where we could see a lot of movement. There is a small chance that Jeff Brohm leaves for another opportunity weather it is college or NFL. I will say that my number is only Louisville -6 if everything remains constant.
Play: Lean Toledo +6.5
New Orleans Bowl – Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss +5.5 O/U 57.5 Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Western Kentucky’s Motivation: Medium – Maybe better to hit Bourbon Street, but these kids from bourbon-land can play on a hangover.
Southern Miss’s Motivation: Medium Low – They just lost their coach, but might try and show up anyways.
Home: Southern Miss is only 111 miles away. Give them 2.5 points here.
Western Kentucky Transfer Portal
CB Dylan Flowers (358 snaps)
RB La’Vell Wright
Western Kentucky Injuries
None worth noting.
Southern Miss Potential Opt-Outs
CB Josh Moten
Southern Miss Injuries
LT Blake Bustard
Southern Miss Coaching Changes
Charles Huff took the Memphis job, which does increase the chance of opt-outs. Offensive coordinator Blake Anderson will serve as the interim coach and also take over as the head coach next season.
Net Yards Per Play: Southern Miss +.28
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Western Kentucky’s defense is the best unit on the field ranking 19th in success rate and 43rd in EPA. Neither team had too hard of a schedule.
Verdict: I think that this line assumes more opt outs for Southern Miss as their coach Charlie Huff puts together his team in Memphis. In saying that, if there isn’t, there will be value on the +5.5
Play: Lean Southern Miss +5.5
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl – UNLV vs. Ohio +6.5 O/U 65.5 Location: Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas) Time: 9 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
UNLV’s Motivation: Medium – This team probably wanted more, but they will be about business in Frisco.
Ohio’s Motivation: Medium – No real reason to not try as coach is on leave. I think Ohio shows up tough for the interim coach John Hauser.
Home: None
UNLV Injuries
TE Var’Keyes Gumms (last played in Week 12)
Ohio Injuries
LB Michael Molnar (last played in Week 9)
Ohio Coaching Changes
Head coach Brian Smith is on leave, leaving DC John Hauser to take over as interim.
Net Yards Per Play: UNLV +.25
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: UNLV’s defense is clearly the weak point of this team ranking 126th in yards per play. In saying that, this offense has shown enough to outscore almost every opponent not named Boise State. UNLV’s offense is the best unit on the field ranking 15th in EPA. The question is if they can stop Ohio.
Verdict: Ohio was a solid team who played well on offense in the MAC, yet when it came down to crunch time, this team blew games against Ball State and Western Michigan. The whole coach on leave doesn’t breed much confidence to me. My number is UNLV -4, so I lean Ohio at this time. Gonna wait this out some too see what happens with more potential opt outs.
Play: Lean Ohio +6.5
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl – California vs. Hawaii +1.5 O/U 54.5 Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu) Time: 8 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Hawaii’s Motivation: High – They will be happy to play a power 4 team at home.
Cal’s Motivation: Medium High – Cal’s quarterback JKS is from Hawaii, so I think the team rallies behind him.
Home: Hawaii’s home stadium, give them 3 full points.
Cal Potential Opt-Outs
CB Hezekiah Masses
LB Cade Uluave
It appears QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is staying at Cal next season, so I’d expect him to play.
Cal Injuries
RG Sioape Vatikani
TE Mason Mini
WR Jordan King
WR Mark Hamper
DB Cam Sidney
Cal Coaching Changes
Head coach Justin Wilcox was fired at the end of the season. OC Nick Rolovich took over and will continue to serve as the interim for the bowl in his return to the island. Oregon DC Tosh Lupoi will take over as head coach next season.
Hawaii Transfer Portal
WR Jackson Harris (49 catches for 963 yards and 12 TDs)
Hawaii Injuries
LB Jamih Otis
CB Virdel Edwards II
WR Nick Cenacle
Other Notes: This will be a home game for Hawaii.
Net Yards Per Play: Hawaii +.44
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Well Cal played a much harder schedule ranking 60th on Sagarin to Hawaii’s ranking 112th. The funny thing about these two teams is that they are mirror images of each other. Both quarterbacks are from Hawaii, both teams pass the ball at a very high frequency ranking 8th for Cal and 5th for Hawaii in all of college football, and both teams absolutely suck at running the football.
Verdict: I really thought that I was going to take the over year, but both teams are solid at defending the pass. Both teams are also quite average in Tempo and I expect a little bit of defense this game as both teams are mid-range in defensive success rate. At this number, I have to lean Cal. This team showed some spirit without coach Wilcox in knocking SMU out of the ACC championship game. JKS is also going to have a lot of fans here cheering them on.
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