- Eastern Michigan out-gained Western 461 to 378 et lost 31-21. A massive 5-0 turnover ratio burned them bad.
- Kansas out-gained Utah 477 to 414 yet lost 31-21. A 3-1 turnover ratio and bad fourth down efficiency got them.
- San Diego State out-gained New Mexico 355 to 308 yet lost 23-17. A 2-1 turnover ratio and nine penalties got the Aztecs.
- South Carolina out-gained Clemson 422 to 415 yet lost 28-14, a 4-1 turnover ratio out-gamed the Cocks.
- Louisiana Monroe out-gained Louisiana 516 to 338 yet lost 30-27. A 2-0 turnover ratio and eight penalties got the Warhawks.
- UTSA out-gained Army 386 to 303 yet lost 27-24. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone coaching flattened the Road Runners.
- Liberty out-gained Kennesaw State 503 to 452 yet lost 48-42. A 1-0 turnover ratio, nine penalties and poor specials teams extinguished the Flames.
- Rutgers out-gained Penn State 533 to 509 yet lost 40-36. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor clutch play killed the Scarlet Knights.
- Oklahoma out-gained LSU 393 to 198 yet only won 17-13. A 3-1 turnover ratio did the Sooners rough.
- Maryland out-gained Michigan State 534 to 453 yet lost 38-28. Equal turnovers but poor red zone efficiency got the Terps.
- Auburn out-gained Alabama 411 to 280 yet lost 27-20. A 2-0 turnover ratio and biased officiating got the Tigers.
- Wisconsin out-gained Minnesota 268 to 218 yet lost 17-7. A 3-0 turnover ratio smoked the Badgers.
College Football Week 14 Misleading Final Scores
Fantasy Football Week 14
Byes: Giants, Patriots, 49ers, and Panthers
Key Injuries:
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown went out with an ankle injury.
- WR Marvin Harrison JR went out with a heel injury.
- RB Dylan Sampson hurt his calf.
- WR Parker Washington had a hip injury for the Jags.
- QB Justin Herbert had a fracture in his left hand but will probably play next week.
- RB Kyren Williams left the Rams game with an Ankle.
- RB Aaron Jones with a shoulder injury.
Waiver Wire:
- WR Dontayvion Wicks had eight targets and two touchdowns. Only 1% ownership.
- WR Adonai Mitchell had eight targets for the Jets and a touchdown.
- WR Devaughn Vele had eight targets for the Saints. He found paint as well.
- RB Jordan Mason due to the Jones injury.
- RB Chuba Hubbard was back in the mix with a huge game. 17 rushing attempts and two TDs.
- RB Bam Knight was all the Cardinals really had.
- WR Jalen Coker was hot against the Rams.
- WR Mitch Tinsley had nine targets against the Ravens.
- RB Blake Corum for the Kyren injury.
- WR Isaac TeSlaa could be big this week with the St. Brown Injury.
- WR Michael Wilson has been huge for the Cardinals.
Sleepers/Non-starters trending up for week 14
- WR Dontayvion Wicks should find success against the Bears.
- RB Kyle Monangai against the Packers could hit.
- RB Ray Davis against the Bengals is fat.
- WR Khalil Shakier against the Bengals is solid.
- WR Mitch Tinsley could be ok if he gets nine targets again.
- QB Shedeur Sanders against the Titans could be hot.
- WR Jerry Jeudy against the Titans could slap.
- RB Jaleel McLaughlin against the poor Raiders.
- WR Troy Franklin against the pathetic Raiders.
- WR Isaac TeSlaa will be big if Amon-Ra is limited or can’t play.
- TE Ross Dwelly could score against Dem Boys.
Busts:
- QB Lamar Jackson has been a terrible disappointment.
- WR Ladd McConkey could struggle against the Eagles.
- RB Tony Pollard against the Browns is awful.
- QB Daniel Jones against the Jaguars is iffy.
- QB Aaron Rogers against the Ravens is broke.
- QB Pat Mahomes against the Texans.
- WR Nico Collins against the Chiefs.
- QB CJ Stroud against the Chiefs.
- RB Bijan Robinson against the Seahawks is sad.
- QB Jacoby Brissett against the mad Rams is rough.
- RB Chris Rodriguez against the embarrassed Viqueens isn’t good.
- QB Caleb Williams against the Packers isn’t easy.
Nasty Sleeper:
- WR Jameson Williams will be sick against the Cowboys D.
Podcast 764 – 100 – 25 – NFL & College Football Recap & Play – Fantasy Football Week 14 – Sports Betting
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who could bet flat? Who has long or short rest? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football injuries, waivers, sleepers & busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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College Football Week 14 Saturday Super Plays – Ohio State vs Michigan – Sports Betting
Ohio State vs Michigan +10 O/U 44.5
🏈 Game Context
- Date & Time: Saturday, Nov. 29, 2025, at 12 p.m. ET
- Location: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor
- Broadcast: FOX’s Big Noon Saturday
- Weather: Snow is expected in Ann Arbor, adding an extra layer of drama to the rivalry.
📊 Team Records & Rankings
- Ohio State: 11–0 overall, 8–0 Big Ten, ranked No. 1
- Michigan: 9–2 overall, 7–1 Big Ten, ranked No. 15
🏈 Recent Performances
- Ohio State: Beat Rutgers 42–9 last week
- Michigan: Beat Maryland 45–20 last week
🔥 Offensive Leaders
- Ohio State QB Julian Sayin: Accurate passer, leading an offense averaging over 35 points per game
- Michigan QB Bryce Underwood: Went 16-for-23, 215 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs vs. Maryland
- Ohio State WRs Carnell Tate & Jeremiah Smith: Both sidelined recently with injuries, but expected to be impact players if healthy
🛡️ Defensive Notes
- Ohio State Defense: Top-ranked nationally, allowing fewer than 12 points per game
- Michigan Defense: Strong against the run, but secondary will be tested by OSU’s passing attack
🔥 Storylines
- Ohio State’s Streak: The Buckeyes haven’t beaten Michigan since 2019. Head coach Ryan Day faces immense pressure to end the skid despite winning a national championship last season.
- Michigan Momentum: The Wolverines have taken the last four matchups, including several upsets where Ohio State was favored.
- Playoff Picture: Ohio State is undefeated and virtually locked into the College Football Playoff, but another loss to Michigan would tarnish their legacy. Michigan needs a win to stay alive in the Big Ten title race.
📊 Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Ohio State -10
- Over/Under: 43.5 points
- Implied Score: Buckeyes 27, Wolverines 17
- Win Probability: Ohio State ~80% chance to win
Analysts highlight Ohio State’s elite defense and quarterback Julian Sayin’s precision passing as keys. Michigan’s freshman QB has been inconsistent, but their run game and home-field advantage could keep it close.
⭐ Key Players to Watch
- Ohio State:
- Julian Sayin (QB) – efficient, accurate passer
- Carnell Tate & Jeremiah Smith (WRs) – explosive playmakers
- Defensive front – ranked among the nation’s best
- Michigan:
- Freshman QB – talented but streaky
- Blake Corum (RB) – veteran leader in the ground game
- Defensive secondary – must contain OSU’s receivers
⚔️ Rivalry Notes
- This is the 121st meeting between the two programs.
- The rivalry dates back to the 19th century, rooted in the “Toledo War” land dispute.
- Fans and players alike often say beating the rival means more than winning a national title.
Prediction:
- People that live in Michigan and Ohio State call this “the game”. People like me and everyone else not from those states or fans from those teams don’t really give a shit.
- Look, the number on this game is sharp as Ohio State is a 10 point favorite even though they have not beaten this Michigan team since 2019.
- Over the last ten years, Michigan is 7-3 ATS in this game while Ohio State is 6-4. The over is a huge 9-1 which says that defense doesn’t always have it’s say. I may think a little differently here.
- My number on this game is Ohio State -10.5. Part of the reason that we see the number going down is the uncertainty behind the injuries to the top two Ohio State wide receivers in Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith. These injuries didn’t show against a bad Rutgers team, but the talent difference between Rutgers and Michigan is pretty large.
- Ohio State didn’t even throw the ball much last game against Rutgers.
- A few things stick out to me here, I could see this game starting out slow as both teams do not want to make many mistakes. Michigan’s defense is definitely better than their offense as they rank 26th in opponent EPA while only allowing 4.67 yards per play.
- Ohio State’s defense ranks number one in the nation allowing only 3.76 yards per play ranking 4th in defensive EPA.
- I like the first half under. I think Michigan being at home can give Ohio State some offensive woes in the first half.
1st half under 22.5 – 1.5 stars
Andrew’s College Football Free Pick Week 14
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-5, 4-3 CUSA) @ Missouri State Bears (7-4, 5-2 CUSA)
- Time and Channel: 2:00PM/EST ESPN+
- Weather: 45 degrees, rain and wind with gusts up to 42mph
- Against the Spread Trends: MO ST Home(4-1) LT Away (2-3)
- Louisiana Tech has not been the same team since the loss of quarterback Blake Baker, without him they have no threat of a passing game which considering the weather was unlikely to be a factor. This plays right into the strength of the Missouri State defense who ranks 43rd in yard per game given up on the ground. I can’t imagine these boys from Louisiana are looking forward to playing a cold in windy game up north. The home field advantage here should be enough here for the Bears to finish their season strong and getting win number 8 on the year strengthening their resume to play a bowl game if there is not enough teams eligible.
- Pick: Missouri State (-2.5)
Wisconsin Badgers (4-7, 2-6 Big 10) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-5, 4-4 Big 10)
- Time and Channel: 3:30PM/EST FS1
- Weather: 25 degrees 85% chance of snow
- Against the Spread Trends: MINN Home (2-3-1) UW Away (3-1)
- Wisconsin has finally found their identity and have won 2 of the last three. Minnesota however, has been tough at home and even though they have not been great against the spread in Minneapolis they have yet to lose a home game all year, now they are underdogs to the Badgers. I like what Wisconsin has been doing but, no way should they be laying points on the road. Wisconsin has completely abandoned the pass game and Minnesota has a stout rush defense ranking 35th in yards per game given up on the ground. This game should be an absolute defensive struggle as both teams defenses should hold up in the snow. I trust that PJ Fleck will have a good enough game plan in place and do just enough to pull out an ugly one.
- Pick: Minnesota (+2.5)
Wyoming Cowboys (4-7, 2-5 MWC) @ Hawai’i Warriors (7-4, 4-3 MWC)
- Time and Channel: 11:00PM/EST Spectrum Sports
- Weather: 76 degrees, winds of 2 mph
- Against the Spread Trends: HAW Home(5-1) WYO Away(5-1)
- The last game of the college football regular season so, we have to bet it right? The home field advantage for the Warriors is significant and Wyoming has all but given up on the season. Wyoming somehow ranks 9th nationally in pass yards per game but, they have not played many competent pass offenses. The Cowboys did play San Jose State who runs a similar offense gave up 320 yards passing at home with the Spartan’s starter only playing three quarters. The Cowboys were down big until he went out so, having to defend this offense on the road for 4 quarters seems a task to tall for the Cowboys and I could see this game getting away from them on the island.
- Pick: Hawai’i (-7.5)
College Football Friday Freebie – Arizona vs Arizona State – Sports Betting
Arizona vs Arizona State +1.5 O/U 47.5
📍 Game Details
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28, 2025 — 7:00 p.m. MST (9:00 p.m. ET)
- Venue: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
- Broadcast: FOX nationally
🔑 Matchup Breakdown
- Arizona Wildcats (8–3, 5–3 Big 12):
- Offense: 407.6 yards per game (251.5 passing, 156.1 rushing)
- Scoring: 33.5 points per game (Top 30 nationally)
- Defense: Elite pass defense (159.7 yards allowed, 7th in FBS)
- Last game: Beat Baylor 41–17
- Arizona State Sun Devils (8–3, 6–2 Big 12):
- Offense: 417.5 yards per game (197.5 rushing, 219.9 passing)
- Scoring: 26.3 points per game
- Defense: Strong against the run (119.3 yards allowed, 28th in FBS)
- Last game: Beat Colorado 42–17
📊 Betting & Predictions
- Spread: Arizona favored by 1.5–2.5 points
- Over/Under: 48.5 points
- Implied Score: Wildcats 25, Sun Devils 24
- Win Probability: Arizona ~54.5% chance to win
⚔️ Keys to Watch
- Arizona’s Passing Attack vs ASU’s Secondary: Noah Fifita has been steady, and Arizona’s WR corps could test ASU’s mid-tier pass defense.
- ASU’s Ground Game: With nearly 200 rushing yards per game, the Sun Devils will try to control tempo against Arizona’s balanced defense.
- Turnovers & Rivalry Energy: In a game this close, one mistake could swing the Territorial Cup.
Prediction:
- This is a very underrated rivalry to end our Friday night.
- This Wildcats team is very different from last year. They might be the most improved power five team of the year minus Texas Tech.
- Arizona is a complete team that ranks 57th in offensive EPA. They seem to move the ball well and have been coached unbelievably well. This team is 5th in offensive average field position and 5th in turnover margin at +12.
- The biggest and least talked about the Cat’s game is their defense ranking 25th in EPA and 23rd in success rate. This team holds opponents to a 12th best 4.59 yards per play.
- The offensive is led by a quarterback who is thirsty for the NFL in Noah Fifita. Noah is a dual threat guy who has a huge 25/5 touchdown to interception ratio.
- ASU was the best story in football from 2024. Kenny Dillingham has really made a name for himself in the coaching carousel.
- The problem with ASU this year is that they lost their best player to the NFL, and their quarterback Sam Leavitt got injured mid-season.
- Looking at the numbers, the Cats have a 1.45 net yards per play to the Sun-devils at .61.
- Last year, ASU blew out Arizona in this rivalry game. I expect some anger and some revenge for the Cats.
Arizona ML -115 – 2 stars
Thanksgiving Leftovers – College Basketball Free Play
Happy turkey day everyone and welcome to your quick free play for this Thanksgiving in College Basketball.
If you’ve been following my football plays we’ve had a November to remember especially in the NFL where we’ve gone 29-14-1 for just shy of 25 units in winners this month. College Football has chipped in 4.8 Units as well.
Today we shift gears to college basketball and look to Chicago, Illinois where Northwestern will take on Oklahoma St. at the United Center at 9:30 CT.
Northwestern currently sits as a 2.5 point favorite with the total at 160.
Oklahoma State comes into the match-up at 6-0 with a couple of nice victories over Texas A&M and South Florida on their resume. They are scoring a boatload of points playing at the third fastest adjusted tempo in the nation having yet to be held under 85 points in a game.
Northwestern sits at 5-1 with the lone blemish coming at a neutral site against Virginia by five points. They’ve beaten a couple solid opponents by a bucket in Depaul and South Carolina.
Oklahoma State has yet to face a quality team with a clash of style this season. Both their top tier wins are against teams that also like to play fast with South Florida and Texas A&M in the top 35 in tempo. That plays to their strength of getting out in transition and picking up easy 2-point buckets. Chris Collins teams however pride themselves on working towards getting a good shot, taking care of the ball and playing good defense. So which style will take over tonight in Chicago?
Let’s start looking into some deeper numbers quick. On offense Oklahoma State is shooting it at 58.8% inside the arc and getting 52.6% of their total points from that range. Their three point percentage isn’t awful, but does dip down to 33.8%. Northwestern’s defense however is holding opponents to 45.1% inside the arc and 28.2% from distance. The reverse number that is key here that leads to the Oklahoma State percentage being inflated from inside the arc is turnover percentage. Oklahoma State opponents have been turning the ball over at 18.4% up to this point. Northwestern however only turns the ball over at 12.9% which is good for 12th in the country. The biggest reprieve fot Ok St. on offense could come in the form of offensive rebounds as Northwestern has struggled keeping teams off the glass allowing a 36.4% offensive rebound percentage.
When Northwestern has the ball as mentioned the key for them will be continuing to not turn it over and work quality ball control possessions. They are 29th in the country in assists/field goal percentage at 62.7%. In those quality possessions they are getting great looks from outside and knocking them down hitting at 41.9% from beyond the arc. The inside out game of Northwestern in the half court is something Oklahoma State just hasn’t dealt with this season.
Everyone is flying in on the hot tempo and fun times behind Pistol Pete, but this is a de facto home game for Northwestern. In an early season clash of styles I lean toward the guy I know can get it done and as a coach I trust Chris Collins to have his team more ready to go than Steve Lutz. Finally looking at Lutz and Oklahoma State last season against teams that ranked in the top 100 in KENPOM overall, but in the bottom half of adjusted tempo they posted a 2-11 overall record. Big time teams that slow it down aren’t good for Pistol Pete in my opinion and I am backing that factor tonight.
Northwestern -2.5, 2 Units
NFL Thanksgiving Day Plays – Bengals vs Ravens – Sports Betting
🏟️ Game Details
-
Date/Time: Thursday, Nov 27, 2025, 8:20 PM ET
-
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
-
Week: 13 (Regular Season)
-
Status: Pre-game
📊 Team Records & Win Probability
| Team | Record | Venue | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 6–5 | Home | 71.9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3–8 | Away | 28.1% |
🔑 Betting Lines
-
Spread: Ravens –7
-
Over/Under: 51.5 points
-
Moneyline: Ravens –360, Bengals +280
📈 Recent Trends
-
Ravens are on a five-game winning streak.
-
Bengals have lost four straight, despite Joe Burrow’s expected return.
-
Baltimore has won 4 of the last 5 matchups against Cincinnati.
🚑 Injury Notes
-
Bengals: Joe Burrow (toe, expected to play), Trey Hendrickson (hip, out), Cam Taylor-Britt (foot, out).
-
Ravens: Rashod Bateman (ankle, out), Keyon Martin (rib, out).
⚡ Key Storyline
This game closes out Thanksgiving with a divisional rivalry:
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Ravens’ rushing attack (Derrick Henry + Lamar Jackson) vs. Bengals’ 31st-ranked run defense.
-
Burrow’s return could spark Cincinnati’s offense, but Baltimore’s home-field advantage and defensive edge make them strong favorites.
⚡ What to Watch For
-
Can Burrow shake off rust quickly enough to exploit Baltimore’s secondary?
-
Will Lamar Jackson find rhythm against a struggling Bengals defense?
-
Ja’Marr Chase vs. Marlon Humphrey could be the matchup that decides the game.
📊 Team Comparison
| Category | Bengals | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 3–8 (1–4 Away) | 6–5 (3–3 Home) |
| Points per Game | 22.5 (18th) | 25.0 (10th) |
| Points Allowed per Game | 32.7 (32nd) | 23.7 (17th) |
| Yards per Game | 307.1 (23rd) | 314.3 (21st) |
| Time of Possession | 27:05 (32nd) | 29:39 (20th) |
| Defensive Sacks | 15 (31st) | 18 (29th) |
| Defensive INTs | 9 (9th) | 7 (17th) |
| Turnover Differential | –7 (28th) | 0 (15th) |
Prediction:
Bengals vs Ravens -7 O/U 51.5
- Happy turkey day my friends! This should be a fun game to end the night with that may not be a snoozer at all. As a matter of fact, I think that this game might fight your food coma and keep you involved from your couch.
- The Bengals are expecting Joe Burrow to be back and ready to play this game. I expect him back too. This has to factor in at last a three to four point bump in your power ratings.
- In saying that, I still can’t get this number below seven in Baltimore, and I still can’t trust the Bengals defense to stop anything. This is why I am looking at the total.
- This Cincinnati crew is still without their best defensive player in Trey Hendrickson. This defense for the bengals is historically bad giving up .188 EPA per play which is dead last in the league. Baltimore should not have issues getting to 35.
- On the other side of the ball, this Baltimore defense has also been bleeding points. This team only ranks 19th in defensive EPA and is also 19th in allowing 23.9 points per game.
- Going back to 2021, 7 out of the last 9 of these matchups have went over the total. The last four matchups all went over.
- This Bengals offense with Joe Burrow is clearly above average, and I think that they get to 24 if not more. Take the over.
Over 51.5 – 2 stars
Turkey Day Teaser: 10Pt -120 – Lions to +7.5, Eagles to +3.5, and Seahawks to -.5 – 2 stars (if you can’t get the number on the eagles, then use the Chargers)
Best of luck everyone!
