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2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings – NFL Draft Best Bet – Sports Betting

The highly anticipated 2026 draft class is almost upon us, and unfortunately, the buzz on these quarterbacks is even worse than it was last year.   Once again, I’ve conducted a thorough analysis into the top prospects, presenting my rankings of the top 10 quarterbacks and determining which ones I believe are draft-worthy.  Unlike last year, there is a huge gap between number one and the rest of the contenders.

The Jury is still out on the results that I had from last year in ranking Shedeur Sanders number one ahead of Cam Ward and Jaxon Dart, but 2026 will tell us more where these three actually shape up.  Here is some quick analysis of my top 10.

1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: HT: 6-foot-5 | WT: 236 pounds | 40YD: 4.7

This is quite easy as Fernando would have been number one last year as well.  His clutch playing was amazing as he refused to lose big games at Penn State, at Oregon, and all throughout the playoffs.  His college 2025 QBR ranks third in the nation, and quite possibly would have been higher had Indiana been in more games other than blowouts.

2. Carson Beck, Miami: HT: 6-foot-5 | WT: 233 pounds | 40YD: 4.84

The step down from Fernando to Carson Beck is so large, that I only have a 4th round grade on this guy.   I will say though that even though Carson played with the best talent in the game, he did what he had to do to win some pretty big games.   A 72% completion percentage with a 30/12 TD to interception ratio was just fine at Miami.

3. Taylen Green, Arkansas: HT: 6-foot-6 | WT: 227 pounds | 40YD: 4.36

Sleeper Alert:

If you want a pure athlete that could have the upside of a Lamar Jackson, look no farther than Taylen green.  His size and speed itself gives him a good enough shot as much as almost anybody in this year’s draft class.  His poor 60% completion percentage and 19/11 TD to Int ratio has held him back, but in fairness, he was on a garbage team in the SEC.

Best Bet:  Jeremiyah Love to be selected 3rd +380 – 1 star

4. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor: HT: 6-foot-4 | WT: 216 pounds | 40YD: 4.64

Pick number four starts where I would not draft any of these prospects, but I will say that Sawyer also didn’t have a good team at Baylor, and he at least ranked top 7 in passing yards.  He is tall and can scramble quite well.

5. Ty Simpson, Alabama: HT: 6-foot-1 | WT: 211 pounds | 40YD: 4.80

Bust Alert

Short, light, and slow is what I look for in a quarterback who limped into the playoffs with some of the best talent in college football.  Ranking 21st in QBR does Simpson no favors.  I do not know how draft guys can talk about him like he is an NFL player, much less a 1st or 2nd round pick.   The speculation is crazy to me.

6. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: HT: 5-foot-10 | WT: 207 pounds | 40YD: 4.83

Sleeper Alert

I mean, he wins….  Google him.    Maybe short, but he is tough as he is rarely injured.  If there is a true sleeper in this draft, it might be him, but he also might be on the wrong side of 40.   His family is a bit nuts and a distraction, but Diego reminds me a lot of Doug Flutie.

7. Cade Klubnik, Clemson: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 207 pounds | 40YD: 4.69

Cade wasn’t even in the top 50 in quarterback QBR.   The good news is that he can take a hit, as has played his entire college career mainly without injury.

8. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 203 pounds | 40YD: 4.82

Garrett was ranked 30th in QBR, but when he got injured, I feel that backup quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. was even better than he was.

9. Jalon Daniels, Kansas: HT: 6-foot-1 | WT: 219 pounds | 40YD: 4.65

A college career hampered with injuries has slowed this kid down some.   I do remember seeing flashes in that great Lance Leipold offense that made me think that this kid had a shot.

10. Cole Payton, North Dakota State: HT: 6-foot-3 | WT: 232 pounds | 40YD: 4.56

Tall, big, and fast are great combinations for a quarterback at the next level.  The problem with Cole is that he played at the lower level FCS at North Dakota State.  I will say that he was a beast there, and his skills could translate to the NFL.

Podcast 812 – 36 – 26 – With Ryan Kramer – The 2026 NFL Draft Best Bets – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a HUGE show for you today! Ryan Kramer @KramerCentric from The Sports Gambling Podcast is back to bring us a HUGE amount of info and bets for the 2026 NFL draft!  First, Kiev gives his top 10 quarterback rankings for 2026.  Next, Ryan comes on and the boys get right into the draft!  How strong is this draft?   What happens at pick 2 and 3?  Then, the boys give out some Best Bets!  We talk some position totals, player player totals, and some team 1st draft positions. After that, we dive deeper in where some players might land in the draft.  Finally, the boys give out some long shot bets that they love for some big + money!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

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The NFL Mock Draft 1.0 for 2026

Another year, another countdown to the NFL Draft. Last season treated us well — we hit several of our favorite plays, including the under 2.5 first‑round running backs, which cashed without breaking a sweat. We’ve consistently found value in this market, and I’m hoping to keep that streak alive.

That said, this year’s draft class doesn’t exactly jump off the page. There’s really only one quarterback who feels like a true first‑round talent, and the edge rush group is filled with players who carry more risk than usual. The wide receiver class is also underwhelming, with many prospects failing to break 4.5 in both their combine and pro day forties. On the bright side, this draft is loaded with offensive linemen and safeties. The cornerback group, however, is fairly ordinary.

For once, I find myself agreeing with a lot of the consensus projections — but I also expect chaos. A wave of trades in the middle of the first round could blow up mock drafts before we even get comfortable on the couch. As always, my format remains the same: what I believe teams should do versus what I think they will do at each draft slot.

Looking ahead to 2026, our projected first round includes just one quarterback and two running backs. We also have seven offensive linemen, seven defensive tackles/edge rushers, three safeties, two linebackers, one tight end, three cornerbacks, and six wide receivers. Let’s see how this draft unfolds.

Best Bet:  Quarterbacks under 1.5 drafted in the 1st round +125

Round 1

1. Las Vegas Raiders

Who they should pick:  Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

This isn’t hard.  The Raiders need a great kid to lead this team to the future.  He will learn under the mistakes of Kirk Cousins for a year or less, or at least as long as Klint Kubiak can take it.

Mock Pick:  Fernando Mendoza, QB

Unless they get a haul from the Jets, this is the correct pick as this draft has a lot of upside, yet not a lot of can’t miss guys.


2. New York Jets

Who they should pick:  David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

The Jets were dead last in pressure rate at 15.1%.  Will McDonald is not great. and will cost the some money if they decide to pay him, so it’s time to get younger at that position.  Let’s face it, the Jets need everything, but this is the best value with the highest floor.

Mock Pick:  David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

Bailey grades out as the best pass rusher in this draft, and I expect them to get the proven commodity rather than take any crazy risks.   In saying that, the Jets need everything.


3. Arizona Cardinals

Whom they should pick:  Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)

I know Bain’s measurables stink with small hands, small arms, shorter and light weight, but I think that he will be fine.  The Cardinals were 29th in pressure rate last year, and they do have some offensive lineman that will be healthy this season.

Mock Pick:  Jeremiyah Love, RB

This is going to blow people’s minds.   The Cardinals want to trade down and use Love as bait for the Titans, but in case the Titans don’t bite, this team will want what some of them call a generational talent.   Believe it or not, this team is completely fine with drafting Love if they have to, and if the Titans trade up, Tennessee may draft Love at 3 as well.


4. Tennessee Titans

Who they should pick: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (Fla.)  

According to PFF, Titans left tackle Dan Moore Jr. earned a 61.9 overall PFF grade in the 2025 season, 62nd among 89 qualified offensive tackles. Francis played 948 offensive snaps on the season.  Why not protect Cam Ward?   Get rid of Dan Moore after this season.

Mock Pick:  Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, Ohio State

I do not hate this pick as Reese has a ton of upside, but if it wasn’t for Micah Parsons, we would not be discussing a guy that is between linebacker and pass rusher until the middle of the first round.


5. New York Giants

Who they should pick:  Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

I normally do not want to pick a safety this early in the draft, but Caleb Downs can help this defense significantly both against the pass, and against the run where they ranked 31st in opponent rushing yards per game.

Mock Pick: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (Fla.)

I don’t hate this pick at all.  Francis is the perfect size and perfect weight to play meaningful Right Tackle.  He has some serious power for run blocking as well as a fast step back for on pass plays.   The only issue his shorter arm length.


6.  Dallas Cowboys (Trade with Browns)

Who they should pick: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

I just had to do this as the Cowboys will be desperate.  Dallas is dying for a linebacker, and they just may trade up to get one like Styles. I hate doing mock trades, but I just had to on this one.

Mock Pick:  Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

At 6’5 244 lbs, Sonny ran a 4.46 40 which shows huge NFL potential.   He is probably the best pure middle linebacker in this draft by far.  Jerry will salivate and give anything up to go get him.   Other options for this team include Edge and CB.


7. Washington Commanders

Who they should pick: Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)

The Commanders need a lot of defense as they were bad in most categories, but I do see that this team lost LB Bobby Wagner, and replaced him with Leo Chenal.   I think that losing Von Miller and Jacob Martin creates or of a need for Edge.

Mock Pick:  Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

The Commies did pick up Odafe Oweh from the Chargers at Edge, so they will probably now panic and go wide receiver.


8. New Orleans Saints

Who they should pick:  Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU 

This team missed out on two stud linebackers, so just get the best corner on the board as the next stop down in LB is high.  Delane ran a nice 4.38 forty, and had great instincts during the regular season for LSU.

Mock Pick: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Saints coach Kellen Moore is an offensive type of guy, and this team can’t trust Olave to always be healthy.  I think they bite the bullet and go WR.   I watched Tyson play in person and he was definitely the best player on the field when Cam Skattebo was on the bench.


9. Kansas City Chiefs

Who they should pick:  Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.) 

The Chiefs need a better pass rush in a much improved division.  George Karalaftis can’t hold the fort down by himself, and drafting the best college football performing edge rusher isn’t a bad pick.

Mock Pick:  Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)

Many think that wide receivers is a focus for the Chiefs, but I do not think that is the case.   The Chiefs had already mentioned that they knew of Rueben Bain’s car accident that killed his passenger a few years back.   Bain should be the pick.


10. NY Giants (via Bengals)

Who they should pick:  Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Caleb is the best Safety on the board.

Mock Pick:  Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Sometimes it’s good to go against the grain.  Jon Harbaugh loves defense, and they have already acquired LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Greg Newsome to fill those gaps.


11. Miami Dolphins

Who they should pick:  Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

This also feels like a rebuild here as they pay Tua 54 million to go and play backup for the Falcons.  Why not start in the trenches is my thoughts here.  The Dolphins lost Cole Strange AND Larry Borom to free agency this year.

Mock pick:  Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

Everyone thinks defense due to new coach Jeff Hafley coming from being a defensive coordinator in Green Bay.  I am going to be contrarian here and say the Dolphins go offensive line.   This team honestly could go in many directions here and not be wrong.


12. Cleveland Browns (Trade with Cowboys)

Who they should pick:  Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia  

Freeling makes the most sense as the Browns need to cover for Deion’s excuses this year as Sanders looks like he could be QB1.

Mock Pick:  Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia  

Freeling has is massive at 6-foot-7, 315 lbs.  He has good long 34¾-inch arms, and he can stop the pass and gouge the run. He has a ton of potential.  The Browns need someone like Freeling to help out in this division as the Bengals just got stronger at defensive line.


13. Los Angeles Rams (via ATL)

Who they should pick:  Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

The Rams should trade down, and they probably will, but this super bowl caliber team has nothing at wide receiver after Puka and Devante, so I expect them to shore that position up.  Brazell is the best wide receiver in this draft at 6’4 with 4.37 speed from the 40.

Mock Pick:  Makai Lemon, WR, USC 

Makai was the best player at USC over the past few years.  He’s not huge, but he is a great slot receiver with some decent speed.  He has great hands and amazing rout running ability.


14. Baltimore Ravens

Who they should pick:  Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

The Ravens were busy in free agency getting Trey Hendrickson at edge, and Josh Simpson at guard.  They also shored up some secondary.  This team however did lose Isaiah Likely, and Charlie Kolar at tight end which opens up a huge whole to fill.  Kenyon Sadiq is the only 1st round tight end in this draft, and his measurables at 6’3, 241 lbs. running a 4.39 forty makes him a sure shot.

Mock Pick:  Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

With Mark Andrew’s aging and Isaiah Likely gone, I think it is quite “likely” that this team does the right thing and pick’s Kenyon Sadiq to fill out that rebooted uniform.


15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who they should pick:  Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU 

The Buccaneer’s biggest weakness was against the pass.  Losing CB Jamel Dean to Pittsburgh was another bit hit.   This team needs a cornerback and DeLane is the best out there right now.

Mock Pick:  Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU 

With Cam Taylor-Britt signing in Indianapolis, there is a pretty significant hole at Cornerback.  Not that there isn’t everywhere else on defense, but it is what it is.


16. New York Jets (via IND)

Who They should pick:  Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

Terrell is probably the next best corner, as the has solid speed and ball skills.  He can also tackle and blitz the quarterback quite well with 3 sacks last season.  The Jets need a lot so they could go multiple directions here.

Mock Pick:  Chris Brazzell II, WR, Tennessee

The Jets will try and appease coach Glenn a little bit after first going defense, as this team has nobody behind Adonai Mitchell at the wide receiver position.  Brazzell has the highest celling at wide receiver in this draft at 6’4 with a 4.37 forty.


17. Detroit Lions

Who they should pick:  Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

The Lions have had terrible offensive line injury luck, and it’s time to get younger at those positions.   With LT Taylor Decker gone, this is a no-brainer.  I do however wonder why Decker wanted out of there so fast…   He’s still contemplating retirement as well.

Mock Pick:  Blake Miller, OT, Clemson

At 6-foot-7, 315 lbs, this kid can move running a 5.04 forty.  He has good with over 31 reps at bench press at the Combine.   He also had a massive broad and vertical Jump.  He might be the best tackle in the draft.


18. Minnesota Vikings

Who they should pick:  Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

With former all pro safety Harrison Smith eyeing retirement, this pick makes a ton of sense.   Dillon ran a speedy 4.35 forty, while having great tackling technique.  He shows up to the team’s facility at 5:30 AM.  He has had over 300 tackles and 8 interceptions over his college career.

Mock Pick:  Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

From Fresno State to Oregon, this kid made a name for himself.  I love the pick.


19. Carolina Panthers

Who they should pick:  Spencer Fano, OL, Utah

Carolina doesn’t have a good line, and their two pickups in free agency in LT Rasheed Walker, and Center Luke Fortner may not be enough. Spencer Fano has short arms, but he can play guard or tackle.  He has the size and strength at 6’6, 311 lbs. to be versatile enough in the NFL to move positions.

Mock Pick:  Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

Carolina drafted a lot of wide receivers over the past few years.  I think they go Corner to try and fill that gap as Devin Lloyd was already signed to fill the linebacker position.


20. Cleveland Browns (via Dal)

Who they should pick: Anthony Hill Jr, LB, Texas

This kid can ball.   He has great tackling skills and is very quick to the gaps right from the snap.  His long arms make up for his height, and he can jump through a ceiling.

Mock Pick:  Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

I assume that Cleveland swaps these with Dallas, and Todd Monken gets a guy that he likes at WR.  Boston is a big dude at 6’4, but his speed is definitely in question without him running the 40 yard dash at his pro day.


21. Pittsburgh Steelers

Who they should pick:  Spencer Fano, OL, Utah

The Steelers are living with a poor decision from last year with DK Metcalf at Wide Receiver.  It would be too embarrassing for them to reach for one.   Is Rogers coming back?   Who else is sick of that question?   Rogers is Brett Favre.

Mock Pick:  Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

The Steelers lost Guard Isaac Seumalo to free agency, so this pick makes sense as Fano has the shorter arm length for guard yet piledriving power in the run game.


22. Los Angeles Chargers

Who they should pick:  Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State

This guy has Massive size to bat down balls and clog up the middle on run plays.   This is a perfect pick for the Chargers as they lost DaShawn Hand and Otito Ogbonnia to free agency.

Mock Pick:  Peter Woods, DT, Clemson

The Chargers signed Dalvin Tomlinson who is 32 years old. They will want to go younger, and I think they might go with the speedier Peter Woods from Clemson.


23. Philadelphia Eagles

Who they should pick:  Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

With an aging offensive line, why not pick the next best prospect?   Max is a massive 6’6 321 lbs who ran a 4.91 forty.  Part of Cam Skattebo’s success at ASU can be attributed to this guy.

Mock Pick: Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

Some think wide receiver to make up for the soon to be gone AJ Brown, but Howie Roseman is too good to make this type of Mistake.  Lane Johnson is getting old and the Eagles have won based on the trenches.


24. Dallas Cowboys (via Cle)

Who they should pick:  Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

The Cowboys defense was horrible last season, and Jermod McCoy could come in and make a big difference.   The only issue is that he missed last season do to an injury.

Mock Pick:  Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

Why go edge when the grades are relatively the same after Bain?   Jermod has been fantastic at Tennessee in 2024 with 13 passes defended, 4 interceptions and 9 pass breakups.  He was injured for the 2025 season, but has completed his rehab.  Jerry Jones has been known to take high reward risks.


25. Chicago Bears

Who they should pick:  Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

The Bears need defense as that has been their weak spot throughout the 2025/2026 season.  Edge rusher would be nice, but unfortunately they are way too late to the party at pick 25.   The Bears need another safety, and McNeal-Warren has great size and speed to keep up with the top wide receivers in the league.

Mock Pick:  Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn

Sometimes, Bears GM Ryan Poles tends to try and outsmart even himself.  He will feel the pressure to shore up that pass rush and will take a risk on Keldric Faulk who regressed during his senior season at Auburn. Keldric is a little weak for the position with a poor bench press and a sub-par vertical jump.


26. Buffalo Bills

Who they should pick:  Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State

The Bills were terrible at stopping the run last season ranking 28th in opponent rushing yards per game, and 31st in opponent rush EPA.  Kayden is the best pick here and a tremendous value.

Mock Pick:  Anthony Hill Jr, LB, Texas

The days of Matt Milano are over in Buffalo, and they will try and get younger at the middle linebacker position.   Hill is probably the best guy available as an NFL prospect.


27. San Francisco 49ers

Who they should pick:  Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

Last year Utah was loaded at the tackle position and Caleb was a big part of their success.   At 6’6 313 lbs., Lumu ran a sub 5 second forty.  He had an amazing Broad and Vertical jump to show what kind of an athlete he really is.

Mock Pick:   Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

With Trent Williams aging, the offensive line is back in focus in the bay area.  This draft is loaded with offensive lineman and Safeties.   I think that John Lynch makes the right choice.


28. Houston Texans

Who they should pick:  Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State

The Texans addressed their terrible offensive line issues by signing guards Wyatt Teller and Center Evan Brown to the roster.  Did they do enough?   No, but the Texans now have a gaping hole at nose tackle after Tim Settle signed with Washington.

Mock Pick:  Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State

There is just more value to pick McDonald here over the 8th or 9th best offensive lineman.   Make sure to get one in the second round.


29. Kansas City Chiefs (via LAR)

Who they should draft:  Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

The Chief’s lost cornerbacks Jaylen Watson, and Joshua Williams to free agency.   While this team is also short on Safety, I think that they should go cornerback first.   Colton Hood fits the bill at 6’0 with a 4.4 forty time.

Mock Pick:  Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

I feel that the Chiefs will stick to defense and fill the Deon Bush and Bryan Cook gap that left them short at Safety in the offseason.


30.  Miami Dolphins

Who they should draft:  Caleb Banks, DT, Florida

Miami is starting from scratch with new coach Jeff Hafley.  I think he goes defense first, but this team needs everything, and they do not have nearly enough picks to cover.

Mock Pick:  KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M

General Managers can’t resist making mistakes.   KC Concepcion is a solid wide receiver, but nothing special.  The Dolphins will want to give Malik Willis a new Target as they lost both Jaylen Waddle to a trade, and Tyreke Hill to a bad injury release.


31. New England Patriots

Who they should pick:  Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)

The Patriots could go a few different ways here as they need another wide receiver, but I think they go pass rusher.  Mesidor had 12.5 sacks, 58 pressures and 11 run stops in 2025. But he’s also 25 years old and has been injured over the past few years.   To be honest, I think the Patriots might trade this pick for AJ Brown, but I do not want to mock that.

Mock Pick:  Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)

Ok, even if this is the Eagle’s pick, there is a chance they go DE as lost Jaelan Phillips to free agency, and Brandon Graham to retirement.  New England lost K’Lavon Chaisson to free agency so this makes sense.


32. Seattle Seahawks

Who they should pick:  Mason Thomas, Edge, Oklahoma

Seattle won a super bowl based mainly on their defense, so I would at least try and keep that whole after losing Boye Mafe to the Bengals.

Mock Pick:   Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

I do not like the pick, but we have seen this before where a team reaches for a running back at the end of the first round.  The Seahawks lost Kenneth Walker to free agency, and Zach Charbonnet certainly can’t fit the whole bill himself.

Podcast 811 – 35 – 26 – The 2026 NFL Mock Draft – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil goes solo to give out his (about to be destroyed) NFL 2026 mock draft!   We cover what Kiev thinks that teams “should” do as well as what he thinks that they may do.   We also have a few bets!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

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2026 NFL Draft Storylines

2026 NFL DRAFT STORYLINES (updated from 4/13/26)

FINAL PRE-DRAFT PUBLICATION – April 20th, 2026   

Written by Ron Marmalefsky @ronacesports

MY DRAFT BOARD: I have 168 numerically rated players and 69 players who received a * (also-eligible, draft worthy) rating. 

I adjust ratings after the draft based on person-team fit.  As a reminder, * rated players are draft worthy, but only after the numerically players come off the board.  I studied (at least partly) about 405 players, 80 fewer than usual.  A dozen or more prospects will require more study after they are selected, while there will be a group of players drafted that I will not have studied at all.  Some players may be added to my draft eligible list, while others could fall off after I receive more information.  The total # of draft eligible players won’t vary too much from what I’ve set pre-draft.  The pre-draft board is set. 

Here’s a few more words about each position, and an attempt to isolate gaps in talent levels as well.

QB: Ty Simpson is a tough study.  I can’t decide on round one or two.  I have only five numerically ranked QB’s, an all-time low.

RB: There’s a massive gap after Love, with no one else in my current top 47 players.  This is a complementary RB group only.

WR: They’ll be the usual 30+ WR’s on my board, but the top three all come with some concerns (they vary).  You can get solid WR’s throughout the draft, and as a GM, I’d defer on WR if I had other equally pressing positional needs.

TE: In 2025 TE’s 3 through 9 were all day two worthy.  I have far fewer in 2026.  The bulk of the rated talent belongs in round 4.

OL: I like the OT/OG group up to a point, but suspect many current OT’s will shift inside later in their careers.  As usual, OL is best chosen early (1st 40-50 picks) as the early round NFL success rate is at its highest for this position. 

DE/edge: This is a very deep group, and will be picked early and often in rounds 1-2. 

DT: I realize the NFL is morphing away from old-style two-down run stopping DTs, but I still think there’s a place for that type of player, as you want to force teams into 3rd and long.  This 2026 group is talented, but without much of a pass rush presence. 

LB: I count Reese at LB, making this a position that will be hit twice in the 1st ten picks.  The overall group is deeper than usual.

CB: I’m starting to warm up to the depth at CB, and as many as five of them could carry 1st round grades.  I think some of the early round CBs will disappoint, but overall, the group seems pretty much in line with past years.

Safety: This might be the fastest safety group on record.  Two or three carry early grades, including top ten pick Caleb Downs.

Most of this report was written on April 13th.  Several teams have 4/20 updates as you can see below.  The Rest of the Draft section typically receives a more thorough update as well, once I gather more information and perhaps some late Intel.  Remember, we have ten new coaches, several new GM’s, and six teams with multiple 1st round picks.  Look for draft chaos?

  1. Las Vegas: This pick is going to be QB Fernando Mendoza.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Vegas has met with at least EIGHT WRs, and pick 36 could easily be for someone like Chris Bell, Denzel Boston or Alabama’s Germie Bernard.  DB is high on my draft board but only one CB has visited their facility.  Las Vegas has ten picks, and needs to make sure that OL is also addressed.  Sometimes clues to what team’s are thinking about can be found with the volume of top 30 visits given to a particular position.  In this case, DL has been heavily scouted by the draft team.  If I get any more Intel I will add it with the 4/20 update of this document.  4/20 UPDATE: Fast rising CB Chris Johnson was a recent top 30 visitor, and if he’s available, maybe Vegas pivots to CB.  CB Hood also could be inconsideration, but I still feel it’s WR at 34. 
  2. NYJ:  The Intel was correct on the Jets last year (OT Membou), and I suspect it will be correct again this year, at least as it relates to what position they will target.  LB/Edge rusher Reese is now running neck and neck with David Bailey for this slot.  I give the slight edge to Reese, but the Jets are rumored to be leaning to Bailey.  Either one would be a fine pick for the Jets.  REST OF THE DRAFT:  See pick 16, below for a look at the rest of the draft.
  3. Arizona:  From last year: 4/19 UPDATE: Arizona is extremely serious about the defensive line.  Over half of their TOP-30 private visits are for edge or DT.  They did indeed go DL (Nolen).   They could go OL again this year with Mauigoa, but defensive stars Reese or Bailey carry higher rated overall grades.  As I write this (4/13), the narrative has changed, as OL might be too high for pick 3.  RB Love is +1100 to go here.  Arizona has met with him, so you never know.   If not edge or RB, another option is to trade down.  I’ll do more investigating, but so far, Arizona has not met with any of the top three OL.  4/20 UPDATE: Arizona (finally) met with OT Mauigoa, and also met with OT Proctor.  I think these were visits in case the Cardinal’s found a trade down partner.  REST OF THE DRAFT: IF they want Ty Simpson, the opportunity will be there to trade up as high as pick 20 (Dallas), or more reasonably, pick 28 (Houston) or 32 (Seattle).  They could also wait until their own pick 34.  I’d wait until 2027, going edge at 34, or OL if they went with Bailey at 3.  Perhaps they like another QB instead of Simpson. They met with QB’s Beck and Allar.  They could use pick 65 or a later pick if they want to go in that direction.  RB James Conner turns 31 years old in May.  They should look in that direction later in the draft.  No RB’s have been brought in for visits.  While my need board shows the Cardinals needing edge and safety (in addition to QB and OL), Arizona has instead kicked the tires on quite a few DTs. 
  4. Tennessee: The Titans are in play for RB Love.  RB’s matter only when they are paired with a relatively top tier QB, which Ward is not as of now.  Tennessee’s problem?  Pick 4 is too early for a CB or a WR, my top two areas of need.  They could instead pivot to Bailey, Reese, or LB Styles, ahead of the NYG.  I think they strongly consider Love, and jump at the chance to draft Bailey or Reese if available.  REST OF THE DRAFT: It’s not been easy to correctly read what any Tennessee GM is going to do.  My Intel says that they would like to get a WR at pick 35, but the guys they have met with seem to be rising on draft boards and could require a trade up.  Being top-heavy in personal meetings, I wonder if this team has a plan for day three targets.  Meanwhile, two popular TE’s could be on their radar screen (Stowers, Joly). 
  5. NYG: The NYG are also in play for RB Love, but like Tennessee, they don’t have the QB to team him up with.  Based on my need board, the best value would be for safety Downs.  I think they are looking heavily at LB Styles, but I haven’t seen a top 30 visit from him.  That does NOT mean he’s out of consideration.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I lack sufficient Intel to know their full draft intentions, but my need board reads run stoppers, WR’s, OG (just lost their right guard) and some DB help.  Last year the NYG hid their intentions before drafting QB Dart.  The same may be true for 2026.  NEW: See pick 10 for further updates. 
  6. Cleveland: The Browns were all over the place last year.  Here we go again!  My top needs for them are WR, OT, DB and RB.  WR Tate is in play, and LT still is the primary need up front.  They could reach for LT Freeling at this spot, but that’s better achieved with a trade back or something closer to pick #24.  Have they kicked the tires on a few WR’s.  Yes, as they have looked at eight WR’s, and all eight are expected to be gone by the mid-2nd round.  This pick is very much up in the air, unless they think WR Tate is that much better than the rest of the WR class.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I expect some trades, some head-scratching moves, and some draft hits.  I’ll address their needs after pick 24, below.    
  7. Washington: The Commanders might also be looking at RB Love, and even WR Tate, but here’s where I’d look at CB Delane, since it’s their primary need.   If Love is gone, why not trade BACK, as they have no 2nd round selection.  KC and others might trade up to pick 7.  I personally think Washington covets RB Love, but an easy to make deal with Arizona (pick 3) is more complicated without a 2nd round pick.  I wouldn’t rule out edge or WR, depending on how the board shakes out.  4/20 UPDATE: Late Intel has them kicking the tires on WR’s Tyson and Cooper.  The Washington media does not want them to draft Tyson.  REST OF THE DRAFT: With just six picks, moving back once or twice could be considered.  The team has added depth this offseason, and now must add impact in the early rounds.  Front seven talent must be a priority.  Washington has spread out their private visits, with no clearcut trend emerging.
  8. New Orleans: The Saints draft visits are heavily weighted toward WR.  80% of their initial visits were with WRs.  I’d look at WR, CB or safety here.  WR is my #1 need, but honestly, I’d take two WRs later in the draft, and select either CB Delane or safety Downs in this spot.  This is a nice landing spot for either, or for WR Tate.  REST OF THE DRAFT: As noted, replenishing the WR room should be a priority.  The current WR roster is one of the worst in the NFL.  Will this be the 2nd year in a row that the Saints draft more than six players?  Let’s hope so.  Mickey Loomis has been here 24 years.  Axe him if this fails.  4/20 UPDATE: I think we’ll see a TE draft on day three.
  9. KC: The Chiefs have only three basic needs, and I challenge anyone to say otherwise.  They are DB, edge, and RT.  I originally thought that the RT can be taken at pick 29 or 40, but there’s a scenario where no OL have yet to be taken.  At this time, I do not know what their intentions are.  Last year they sat and had OT Simmons fall into their lap.  I’ve even heard TE Sadiq, but pick 9 is way too early.  For me, edge or DB carry more value here over OL.  As I’ve said to others, Chris Jones needs a running mate to rush opposing QBs.  Getting an edge rusher could translate to Jones seeing more single coverage.  KC fans want a WR, and the Chiefs might accommodate.  I was the GM for KC in a mock draft, and I took CB Delane in this spot.  4/20 UPDATE: KC added TE Sadiq late to their top 30 visits.  I could amend my need board if they draft an impact TE.  REST OF THE DRAFT: See pick 29, below for a look at the rest of the draft.
  10. NYG: NEW with the 4/18 trade: The NYG acquired this pick from Cincinnati in exchange for DE Dexter Lawrence.  This could put WR (Tyson) in play earlier than expected (see Rest of the draft section after their pick 5).  If they took Styles over safety Downs at pick 5, then maybe they look DB here, hoping that Downs or Delane would be here.  Another scenario exists where not even one OL has come off the board.  The NYG have options with this pick.  4/20 UPDATE: With the Lawrence trade, add DT to the list of primary needs.  DT Lee Hunter has made the rounds, and was a late visitor here as well.  The NYG also visited with two OL under the radar and they are day two options.  LB Joseph Trotter could be another late day two consideration.     
  11. Miami: The Dolphins start the 2026 draft with seven of the 1st 94 picks.  The new GM should target WR or DB here.   As of 4/13, I’ve seen eight different players mocked here, and that’s looking at only ten boards!  These two areas need multiple picks.  OL is a popular pick here for Miami, and to be honest, every position could use some attention, but WR and DB are painfully lacking in talent.  The bulk of the early private visits have been for WR and CB.  OL however, is 3rd on my list of needs.  4/20 UPDATE: With the NYG trade, selecting a WR with this pick might be a bit tougher, since the Giants are also looking in that direction.  REST OF THE DRAFT: See pick 30 for a look at the rest of their draft. 
  12. Dallas: The passive Cowboys usually draft well in the 1st round.  Here’s an opportunity to add additional impact.  In a deep edge rusher draft, someone may fall to them.  We usually get great 1st round Intel from Dallas.  Right now, signs are pointing to CB’s Delane or McCoy, but edge rusher Bain is now a possibility as his stock is on the decline.  As of 4/13, WR seems to be reserved for pick 20 or later.  I’ve found out about 26 of their private, Top-30 visits.  21 of those have been for defensive players, with ZERO for the OL.  4/20 UPDATE: There’s an incredible amount of buzz for Dallas moving up to pick 6, trading with Cleveland.  Who are they targeting?  LB Styles would be a solid fit if he slips past the NYG at pick 5.  Maybe they like safety Downs.  REST OF THE DRAFT: See pick 20 for a look at the rest of the draft.
  13. LA Rams: The Rams traded pick 29 for CB McDuffie, and are poised to draft in the 1st round for only the 2nd time since 2016.  I hope LA keeps this pick, but maybe another team entices them like Atlanta did and offers the Rams a bounty of 2027 draft capital.  I only have two bolded needs on their board, OL and WR.  They could look WR Lemon, or at a number of talented OL that fit this draft range.  I’ve seen OL as high as +600 to be their 1st position drafted.  The buzz so far is just OL or WR.  LA eschews private visits, and is always secretive about draft day intentions.  Until recently I lived very close to their headquarters and still couldn’t get any inside info.  There has apparently been some interaction with rising OT Freeling.  He’s on the short list for five-six teams.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I’m not sure LA needs to keep all nine of their picks like in the past, when the roster badly needed restocking.  Seven picks, and one trade up in this draft, plus one acquisition of a day two 2027 draft pick is the way I’d go.  I’d use my later picks for an additional run-stopper and a safety.  4/20 UPDATE: The Rams may actually be interested in a day two TE, which slightly surprises me.  I occasionally have fun and throw out “random” names that could land with a team.  My random match for the Rams is Wisconsin OLB Darryl Peterson. 
  14. Baltimore: The Ravens controversially still have this pick after realizing (my Intel) that they were overpaying for Maxx Crosby.   I think a large number of players/positions could be considered here.  Any of the following players would be fine with me.  WR Tyson (good fit with the speedy Zay Flowers), OG Ioane (easily top-rated IOL),   DT McDonald (in a small trade back, which is easily doable), TE Sadiq, or if available safety Downs.          Based on what I’ve seen, WR may have emerged as an early favorite for pick 14.  OG Ioane seems like the perfect fit, but the Ravens have looked instead at other OL.  Baltimore lost two of their three TE’s, but have not so far looked at TE Sadiq.  NOTE: With another OG (Faalele) gone, OL seems like a very logical way to go with this pick.  REST OF THE DRAFT:  Baltimore likes to stockpile picks, but for 2026, I do not see the need to draft 11 players.  Move UP to secure a higher rated OL, safety and DT when the opportunity exists.  Make sure you get a WR that complements the skill set of Flowers.  Replenish the TE room.  I’m sure the Ravens do not think of 2026 as a rebuilding year, and their draft actions need to reflect that mode of thinking.  Why are names such as OG Micah Morris and punter Jeff Yurk keep popping in my head for this team?
  15. Tampa Bay: The Bucs did not surprise me in 2025 by passing on LB Campbell, who was mocked to this team by most analysts, but never was on Tampa’s radar according to my Intel.  They DID surprise me by using the pick on a WR, which turned out well for them.  TE Sadiq’s range on my board is from pick 14 (Ravens) through pick 23 (Eagles).  He’s this coveted partly due to the fact that TE’s in this class fall mostly in the late 3rd to late 5th round range.      To date, Tampa has not met with Sadiq, but has met with five (now six) TE’s.  They have met with a whole bunch of DL, but the theme of the twenty visits I’ve uncovered has been to meet with players OUTSIDE of the 1st round.  I’d be fine with them getting a CB.  I also wouldn’t fault them for looking at edge rusher (Bain), whose stock seems to be dropping.  Interestingly enough, edge rusher Mesidor has been firmly mocked to Tampa as of 4/13.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Other than OL or an impact TE, I’d rather stay defensive through this draft.  Tampa did NOT spread their picks around in 2025, but I think they should expand their range this year.  The order of how they address their remaining needs should be determined by supply and demand (how the draft is playing out at each position), so they need to be ready with potential options at each area of need.  As an aside, they brought in WR Colbie Young for a visit.  MOST “analysts have him in the undrafted range, but on the field, I have him as a top 75-85 talent.  
  16. NYJ: Assuming an edge rusher at pick #2, the Jets might go WR here.  Is CB in play?  So far, no.  REST OF THE DRAFT: After this, they have picks 33, 44 and 68.  Yes, they could go QB with any of these picks.  The Jets need to come away with quality at WR, edge rusher, CB and OG.  As of 4/13, I lack any late Intel about their day two and three intentions.   
  17. Detroit: The Lions took a fine DT last year in the 1st round, but his draft grade was in the 2nd round.  I suspect this team will remain a bit unpredictable.  OT seems like the logical choice, and everyone as of 4/13 agrees.  We’ve seen a few drafts recently where OL get targeted early.  The pivot for the Lions is NOT WR, but someone on the defensive side of the ball.  CB or edge will have players available that fit the 17th slot.  I lack sufficient Intel for this team right now.  REST OF THE DRAFT: The Lions have drafted 14 players in rounds 1-3 the past four seasons.  12 of those players came in for top 30 visits.  I hope to update this section by 4/20 with more Intel.  Sadly, I expect at least two trades UP the draft board, with one of the deals providing the usual comic relief for my team-by-team NFL Draft recap article.  Still, the Lions tend to also add rated talent during the draft, and I suspect they will figure things out along the OL, and hopefully address CB with more success than in the past.  4/20 UPDATE: I still lack Intel for this team, but OT Proctor is another name to consider for this spot!  Could local product (Michigan), WR Donaven McCulley be a late day target?
  18. Minnesota: The Vikings have an interim GM, which means anything is possible.  Maybe they go conservative and mainstream, which would be a good thing for this organization, considering all the draft miscues they have recently had.  The ONLY spots they should be looking at with this pick are DL and DB.  The players that should be under consideration include edge rushers Faulk, Howell and Mesidor, DT McDonald, CB’s Hood or McCoy, and safeties Thieneman and McNeil-Warren.  While I’m waiting for more Intel (deeper dive into the Minnesota beat writer scene), I am SHOCKED that the visits they have conducted are mostly for 3rd round talent and beyond, with only DT McDonald confirmed as a higher draft choice visitor (and he’s been on numerous other visits).  In the analyst world, safety Thieneman is getting nearly 100% of the attention.  I haven’t confirmed him as a visit thus far.  With a rookie GM, I thought the top 30 visits may carry some weight.  To date, the Intel has not provided me with the clues I thought I would have.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Minny had the consensus 32nd and worst draft class a year ago, which I agreed with.  Over the last 5 seasons, they reportedly have had the least number of games started by players they have drafted. Also reportedly, the Vikings have spent the second least amount of money in free agency so far this offseason. Like I said a year ago (and that fell on deaf ears), Minnesota must address their defensive backfield.  So far, RB, WR and DT have been the clear leaders in receiving their attention.  4/20 UPDATE: I remain shocked that I have yet to gain access to private Minny Intel.  A late meeting with safety Skylar Thomas (THE OSU) is not the breaking news I hoped to uncover.  
  19.    Carolina: All my Carolina top needs are strangely on the defensive side of the ball, despite how erratic the offense has been under Bryce Young.  It seems too early to get the 3rd best LB on the board, so I’d look CB or edge rusher here.  With that being said, the Panthers have met with 11 WR’s.  TE’s and 4 DTs are next in volume, with QB 4th.  Again, I haven’t seen TE Sadiq visit here, and he would be the logical offensive player to look at.  Sadiq is heavily mocked here, but Carolina has met with six different TEs.  OT Freeling and edge rusher Faulk are commanding some attention, but so are DT and safety.  Respected NFL contributor Josh Norris says pass catcher or OL are the heavy favorites at pick 19.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Pick 51 is best suited for LB or edge.  Carolina has not met with any LB’s.  This has not been the most efficient draft team, so hold your breath that they can accomplish what needs to be done.    
  20. Dallas: The Cowboys are back on the clock, but without a 2nd round pick, they could trade back.  I’d try to swing a trade such as the following: Picks 20/112/177 to SF for 27/59/138 and 139.  Pick 27 can still yield them a quality CB, LB or edge rusher.  I thought WR might (falsely) garner some attention, but the focus remains a defensive one at this point.  I show Dallas as meeting with only one WR (Cooper).  I don’t believe they will double up om DB’s, but there are eight names of interest to Dallas for this pick, and six of them are CB’s or safeties.  The other player they met with that could fall in this draft range is edge rusher Faulk.  Going pass rusher and CB/safety with their 1st two picks is my preferred option.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Other then right tackle, I’d stick to drafting for the defense.  Dallas has spent extra time with CB Malik Muhammad, Auburn guard Jeremiah Wright, and down the board prospects such as DE Nyjalik Kelly and Nigerian DT Uar Bernard who caused quite a stir with his workout tape.  He’s raw.  At +325, why not in the 7th round?
  21. Pittsburgh: The Steelers improved the roster through free agency.  Another solid draft would keep them relevant.  I had an easy time figuring their draft board out under Tomlin, down to who he had dinner with (incredibly relevant).  2026 will be a test to see if any past tendencies hold true.  They remained transparent with their top 30 visits, but the extra Intel I used to get is gone with Tomlin out the door.  Two WR’s (Boston, Lemon), two OL (Ioane, Fano) and two DB’s (Chris Johnson, McNeil-Warren) are players who they met with that could be available, some of which would have to drop on draft day.  My need board reads DB, run stopper, LB, and LB youth.  As of 4/13, OT is the prevailing thought in the draft world, but I might prefer OG, and if Ioane actually dropped this far, I’d do it.  I would prefer CB or DT McDonald otherwise.  Ty Simpson seems in play only if the Aaron Rodgers decides to retire.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I expect the defense to be hit nicely, along with 1-2 OL. I like the fit of OLB Louis to this team.  I’m pretty sure they will draft WR, OL and DB early enough in this draft.  4/20 UPDATE: The QB Rodgers drama continues.  Maybe just retire?
  22. LA Chargers: LA does not need as much roster work as people think. I love the fit of DT McDonald to this team.  I’m higher on him than most (always dependent on person-team fit after the draft), meaning he is likely to be available.  I doubt OG Ioane will be here, and if he’s not, the choices are to take an OT and convert him to OG or wait until day two for OL.  Getting a 1st round rated CB is another option.  There’s been some WR love lately (Lemon or Tyson) but the majority of the news remains along the OL.  LA gives out NO Intel, so I do not even try to dig up scoops (the beat writers ignore me, I’ve tried).  REST OF THE DRAFT: The team has to come away with an interior OL and a viable run-stopper at the very least.  After two stunningly good drafts that had the so-called analysts baffled (insert smile here), an encore could make them serious AFC title game contenders.  4/20 UPDATE: I have far more Intel as to their private meetings, far more than usual for me, and more than most know about this cycle.  Other than WR Chris Bell, the other under the radar information is mostly for day three talent.  I’m curious to see if LA drafts any of these guys. 
  23. Philadelphia: The Eagles and Howie Roseman love to wheel and deal during the draft.  They have nine picks, which could open them up to a big 1st round trade if they covet someone special.  TE Sadiq is in play if he gets close to their draft slot, but other players may surface as well.  I have to believe WR AJ Brown is off the roster at some point.  Philly signed or traded for three WR’s this offseason, yet has met with six prospects, the most of any position.  OT and OG meetings were conducted with a total of eight prospects, so Philly might be (finally) serious about succession planning here.  TE, rightfully so, is also getting a decent look.  Roseman averages about 5-6 trades per draft cycle (eight in 2024).  I’d make the odds 75-25 they trade here, and it could be up or down.  4/20 UPDATE: TE Sadiq is in the building!  So are two additional OL, including rising OT proctor.  REST OF THE DRAFT: It’s time to fully implement a succession plan along the OL and at TE.  LB/edge is the area they need to target the most.  I haven’t seen much in-person interest to bringing in a LB, but I’ll keep checking for local Intel (nothing new here).  
  24. Cleveland: The Browns scare me.  The best approach might be WR at pick 6, and OT at 24, but you run the risk of losing a true left tackle.  For me, I have three WR’s with pure 1st round grades (others have 5-6), so if I went OT at pick 6, I get a quality DB at this slot, with WR waiting until pick 39.  Last year my Intel had them interested in TE Fannin, even though that position was not on my need board (Njoku was here).  The buzz is almost 100% for a WR, and they’ve met with quite a few who would fit this draft slot.  I’m okay with OT/WR with picks 6/24, with a valued DB the only other look for me.  I’m guessing that the Browns make at least one trade in this round.  REST OF THE DRAFT: WR/OT/DB are the places Cleveland needs to live.  The only QB Cleveland has met with (to my knowledge) is Ty Simpson, which is obviously intriguing.  Then again, the Browns once had six QBs on their roster, so another name could surface.  As an aside, I think they need to take another stab at a day three RB.  Good luck connecting the dots with Cleveland. 
  25. Chicago: The Bears lost some talent through free agency.  The GM has done a nice job in recent drafts, and with four of the top 89 picks the Bears could get right back on track.  My need board might be different from other analysts, but I would like to see them go DB or WR here.  Others like the DL/edge, which is the clear betting favorite.  Five CB’s and three safeties carry 1st round grades on my board.  I think as many as five DB’s will be available at this pick.  So far, my Intel says the Bears haven’t met with a single 1st round DB prospect.  Then again, they’ve mostly met with day two and day three guys, so I suspect they are the type of team that hides their real intentions.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I’d go 3 DB’s, 2 WR’s, LB, edge and OL with my eight picks.  I definitely need more Intel, but thus far, both DT and center seem to be areas that Chicago will be adding from this draft class.  Remember, top 30 meetings for a majority of teams do not usually translate to a direct draft hit.  GM study is critical, but positional supply and demand usually wins the day.
  26. Buffalo: The Bills have continuity at GM, and Beane has been generally sound on draft day.  Everyone wants a WR, and the Bills have met with two WR’s that could be available, KC Conception and Chris Bell.  Bell is off an Injury but has nice upside.  My four bolded needs are 2 OL, run stopper(s), WR and a young edge rusher.  With seven 1st round OL on my board, that position is doable if they want to veer in that direction.  They haven’t tipped their hand regarding OL at the present time.  I like DT McDonald, but while the Bills have met with several DL, all of the prospects are past pick 26.  This is another team that I need additional Intel on.  I do not see a consensus position being targeted as of 4/13.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Yes, we’ll likely see a WR choice sooner rather than later.  Meanwhile, you need to upgrade the protection for Josh Allen, and do a better job of getting off the field defensively, as in 2025, opponents were able to control clock with the run game.  The Bills are switching to a 3-4 alignment for 2026, so keep that in mind.
  27. San Francisco: The 49ers love to build the roster from the inside out, but every season that pass D% is in, or near the bottom five.  The pass rush deteriorated a year ago, so going pass rusher or cover CB would be equally important with this pick.  Given that they just signed CB Jack Jones, CB may be off the table.  Even with the Trent Williams drama, I’m a bit surprised  OL is the clear betting favorite right now.  OL is possible, but at even money?  SF snuck in recent visits with OL Lomu and Proctor.  WR is the dominant position of interest thus far, but that’s with limited information.  I have a round two grade on WR Conception, but that might move up if SF is the team who drafts him.  REST OF THE DRAFT: PLEASE do not ignore the secondary, and when/if you address it, find sticky cover guys who are not giving cushion to WRs and TEs.  At the present time, the 49ers will be done with the draft during the 4th round (four picks in that round).  While the last three rounds of this draft may not be anything special, look for SF to possibly trade back a time or two, and maybe trade UP once if they see a player that they like, and supply and demand has them needing to act quickly.  4/20 UPDATE: Several pieces of Intel have come my way since 4/13.  SF, despite the free agency additions, remain clearly committed to WR.  Colbie Young is the 8th WR with a top 30 visit.  Loving to build from the trenches, SF has added two OL and four DL to the mix.  TE Michael Trigg is another (intriguing) late addition. 
  28.          Houston: The Texan’s need to protect QB Stroud.  OL should be the obvious look, but it isn’t that way with many a “TV” analyst, or other print media analysts.  You can get a starter in the 1st round, with Blake Miller and Kaydn Proctor possibly available unless there’s a late run on OL.  As an aside, I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved back from this draft slot.  In fact, I think it’s 60-40 to happen.  4/20 UPDATE: Local sources think OL Rutledge or Miller could be the Texan’s initial selection.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Fortify the OL and the DL, add much-needed LB depth, and then go best player available.  Houston’s roster isn’t far from being set, so focus will be the key.  As an aside, Houston likes to draft mid-tier TE’s.  Local product Miles Kitselman is someone they have spoken to.  4/20 UPDATE: My Intel has versatile OL Trey Zahn as an intriguing later round look.  Center Conner Lew (off injury) might be another round three or round four surprise.  Max Klare is a late day two possibility as Houston shows some last minute TE interest. 
  29. KC: Will KC follow my very specific game plan?  It’s obvious DB, and especially CB is now an extreme need.  If KC chose OL at pick 9, then CB must be the choice here.  Even with nine picks, I fear KC could move out of this round, which I don’t think would be wise.  In addition to CB Delane at pick 9, I chose an edge rusher (Faulk) at this pick as their GM in the mock draft exercise.  I’d have gone with Mesidor if Faulk was unavailable.  I got my RT with pick 40.  While the Chiefs usually do not tip their hand with the private visits, I was right about WR Worthy landing here two years ago, and even though the Chiefs are notorious for creating smokescreens, I had them looking at either OT Ersery or OT Simmons last year.  As of now (4/13), I think KC looks OL or DL.  The Chiefs have met with CB’s Hood and Chris Johnson, and one or both could be available here.  REST OF THE DRAFT: I think KC will look to add a TE in this draft.  They must fully address the losses they took in the secondary, and hopefully will address right tackle by pick 40.  I spoke about edge up above (pick 9).  When will Chris Jones land a running mate?  WR is a popular mock for this team but please, take care of my primary needs first.  4/20 UPDATE: TE Sadiq is generating KC interest, but do they wait to see if he gets past Tampa at pick 15?  Two other CB’s (Hood, Stokes) are on their radar screen.  Let’s have some fun.  Use an erasable pencil and plug in Hawaii OG Zhen Sotelo as an UDFA, or in the 7th round if KC ends up with a pick late in the draft.
  30. Miami: The Dolphins have a new GM and I’m going to be curious how he manages the entire draft process.   At one point I felt that the ideal situation in my eyes is either WR Tate at 11 and a CB here, perhaps Hood, Terrell or Chris Johnson.  At this point it does not look like Tate will be available at pick 11.  If that is the case, I pivot to DB (Delane or Downs) for pick 11, and go WR or OL here.  My next highest need is OG, but the slot value doesn’t work here.  Miami has targeted quite a few players who may be available at this pick, most recently adding edge rushers Mesidor and Faulk to the list (likely requires a trade up).  Three WR’s and safety McNeil-Warren are also targets.  WR is the popular choice for them.  While I suspect there will be somebody available at 31 that they’ve met with, I do NOT trust any Miami GM to patiently wait for this to occur.  With Jack Jones recently gone, CB should be addressed during the 1st round.  CB and WR.  Just do this, in any order.  REST OF THE DRAFT: KEEP your seven early picks and draft two WR’s and two DB’s, with the other three picks for an interior OL, LB, and either a TE or a 3rd DB.  Miami’s top 30 visits give me hope that they understand needs at CB, WR and OL, as those have been the primary focus.  What I don’t see is many visits with day three talent, so there could be a concern about how they fare in the later rounds. 
  31. New England: The Pats have fine-tuned the roster in free agency and now need to add a 2026 starter.  Indiana’s star WR Cooper was “expected” to be available, but his stock has been rising.  WR is my biggest need on their board, so I find the fit acceptable.  IF the rumors are true about AJ Brown becoming a post-June 1st Patriot, then OL makes sense as their primary leader in the clubhouse.  DL is a distant 2nd., but gaining.  The choices other than WR for me are the best value between edge rusher and right tackle.  Either possibility might exist depending on how the 1st round plays out.  With 11 picks, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of New England trading UP on draft day.  REST OF THE DRAFT: The Pats have 11 picks, and I’m okay with a couple of trade UPS, IF they hit a direct need (WR, edge, tackle) with proper value.  In this draft I want two WR’s, plus a stab at a solid TE.  I don’t trust the sly Vrabel to give me much Intel, but for the record, the team visits are concentrated in the right areas, although I lack a high volume of Intel as of this writing.  4/20 UPDATE: Edge rusher is gaining some ground (Jacus, Lawrence, Crawford) for early round consideration.
  32. Seattle: Seattle will try hard to trade this pick to a team who wants to secure either a QB (Simpson, if not yet taken) or another player that has a 1st round grade and would not be available at the top of the 2nd round.  If they stay at pick 32, then safety or right-side OL makes for the best value.  For the record, safety is listed at +1200 for their 1st pick.  If they move off of pick 32, RB (+1000, but varies by site) comes into play.  CB is by far the leader right now to be Seattle’s 1st pick in this draft.  The only other position receiving serious attention as of 4/13 has been RB.  REST OF THE DRAFT: Seattle has just four picks in this draft, which is why I see them trading down from either 32 and during day two.  It’s almost a certainty that RB will be addressed by the end of round three, and based on their top 30 visits, CB will certainly be addressed.  Seattle has also addressed DT and edge with quite a few visits.  Safety has not been a focus, but GM Schneider is exceptional at disguising his intentions, as we saw with Witherspoon a few drafts ago.  Here’s a bit of strategy that teams can employ:  You WANT to trade down a bit at the end of a day, because when refreshed, the start of the 2nd and 4th rounds could yield bargains due to players slipping through the cracks with the long day coming to an end (plus the short time on the clock).  The “homework” round (my copyright for the 4th round) often gives us great player value with the 1st 7-10 picks.  Seattle knows it has to replenish at RB.  If that position fails, Sam Darnold will see his turnover ratio spike.  My other Seattle needs are safety, center, and additional right-side OL help.  The needs aren’t many.  Can GM Schneider continue his recent draft day success?   

Brief comments about the six teams without a current 1st round pick.

Cincinnati (Pick 41): PRIMARY NEEDS: Edge/pass rusher, safety, CB, OL

Cincy has added pieces to their below par defense, including Dexter Lawrence, but more is necessary.  The Bengals have had three straight lower rated drafts, and that has to stop.               Before they traded away pick 10, I wanted them to draft edge or safety Downs, with CB Delane a solid 3rd choice.  There’s no early rhyme or reason to who Cincy has brought in for private visits.  Pick 41 should yield a capable DB.  The rest of the picks need to stay mostly defensive ones, except for addressing OL.

Indianapolis (Pick 47): PRIMARY NEEDS: MLB. WR, DB, OL (RT?), DE

Indy tends to visit with off-the-wall talent, and usually pays the price on the field.  While I lack sufficient Intel for 2026, work needs to be done in several areas where talent has been lost.  They’ve met with several WR’s, and Louisville’s Chris Bell (a target of many teams) would be a steal at 47.  LB could be tricky.  With CB Moore requesting a trade, that position needs some early attention (DB is a need even with Moore on the team).  Will Keelan Crimmins be the new punter (insert smile here)?

Atlanta (Pick 48): PRIMARY NEEDS: WR, run-stopper, LB, CB and/or nickel

Atlanta has only five picks, so maybe THIS is the year they do not go stupid on the trade-ups.  The Falcons lack a WR2 and know that, as they have met with six WR’s in top 30 visitor format.  I like all three DT’s that they’ve met with, but it’s possible all three may not make it to this pick.  OL isn’t on my primary need board, but that’s their 2nd highest private visit volume.  I’d go WR here unless they get lucky with a draft-dropping DT. 

Green Bay (Pick 52): PRIMARY NEEDS: OL, DB, DL, RB

Green Bay seems to have lost a little ground after free agency.  Picking at 52 isn’t ideal.  Note that in their last six, non-COVID year drafts, the Packers have added 34 players they have brought in for private visits.  OL and CB haven’t received much attention on their part, but I like the extremely late contact with CB Will Lee as a potential day two target.  No one position has received special treatment.  Speedy RB Mike Washington will get drafted somewhere on day two, and he’s one of three RB’s Green Bay may have interest in.  I think they are serious about finding a LB or two.  Several off-the-wall DB’s are on their day three list, including D’Arco Perkins-McAllister, slower safety Juwon Gaston, and Akron DB Malcolm Dewalt.  Gaston has some return skills, which Green Bay is interested in.  I think the position they take with pick 52 is wide open at the present time. 

Jacksonville (Pick 56): PRIMARY NEEDS: OL, MLB, stud TE, DL

The Jags do NOT conduct private, top 30 meetings.  With a 32-41 sack ratio, Jacksonville could attack either side of the line.  I didn’t list WR, but what if Brian Thomas is traded?  LB Lloyd is gone.  Will they ever consider a TE upgrade?  Their GM is aggressive, so trading UP from pick 52 is possible.  The Jags have 11 picks, and a trio of 3rd round picks to offer as trade bait.  I hope they do not get too trade crazy.  I’d also like them to stick to my need board.

Denver (Pick 62): PRIMARY NEEDS: DE, LB, IOL

The needs are not many, which is why the coach and GM felt trading for WR Waddle was the right thing to do, as they believe the 2026 rookies they sign will not see the field much.  Denver clearly lost DL talent, and the need to replenish the DL is real.  You can get a viable two-down DT in most drafts in the 2nd round, including this one.  Denver has met with at least seven OL, most of whom are day three ranked.  They have two serviceable TE’s on the roster (Engram, Trautman), but seem dead serious about adding more, with seven TE’s in on top 30 visits.  If they do not go DL early, TE looms to be their focal point.  Denver does have four of the top 111 picks, and the TE’s in this draft have grades right where the Bronco’s are picking.  I have isolated a trio of surprise names for late in the draft, but that’s a story for another day.  As an aside, keep in mind that Sean Payton is not afraid of trading UP on draft day.  I think these four picks (62 through 111) become three, with a trade up the board. 

. 

Sniper Wes – Smashing the Books 4/20/2026 📈 | Sharp Sports Picks & Predictions

MLB Friday Free Play – Launching Runs In Houston

Baseball season is out of the gates and we’re slowly getting it rolling. Had a rough last seven days to give some back, but we’re still starting off well at 60-55-1 overall +15.93 Units as we’ve hit a couple nice big plus money winners so far. I’m a data guy, and as much as you can look at previous years data early in the season, baseball is always going to take a little while to settle in. The more info I get, the better my results typically are. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com

I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Daikin Park in Houston, TX. where the Astros (8-12) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (10-8) at 7:45 ET. The current line sits with the Astros as favorites at -133 (Cardinals +123) with an Over/Under of 9 juiced to the under at -115.

The Astros will start recently called up former Rockies top pitching prospect Peter Lambert to make the start tonight as they deal with rotation injuries and issues. Lambert spent last year playing in Japan where he had a 4.26 ERA and a 3.19xFIP. The hitting isn’t quite as good over there and he struggled albeit playing half his games in Denver for the Rockies primarily working as a long reliever after his first season. He has had control issues in both Japan and Colorado with his last two seasons featuring walk rates north of four walks issued per nine innings. He has struggled to limit hard contact and opposing hitters have a lifetime .327 BABIP against him.

The Cardinals start Kyle Leahy who had worked as a reliever in his first three seasons in the bigs. He hasn’t had much success so far this season as a starter allowing a 5.14 ERA over three starts with a 5.47xFIP. He has struggled to miss bats and with walks early on this season with only seven strikouts over 14 innings pitched while walking eight hitters. The biggest strength for Leahy has always been his ability to keep the ball in the park as he has a career .65 HR/9 innings ratio.

On Offense the Astros have been one of the best early on in 2026 with a .790 OPS good for third in MLB averaging 5.35 runs per game. The Cardinals sit at 16th in OPS at .695 and are scoring 4.44 runs per contest. Jordan Walker has had some posy-hype success to start the year as he is tied with Aaron Judge for the league lead in home runs with eight.

My handicap on this one really looks at the limited success Leahy has had as a starter to begin the season and Lambert making his return to the bigs where even if he starts off okay I can’t see him going more than five innings. The biggest struggle for both these teams has been in the bullpen where St. Louis ranks 25th with a 5.35 ERA and Houston is 28th with a 5.85 ERA. I see both teams having to get into those bullpens early and I think that leads to some offensive fireworks tonight in Houston. I got this over early at 8.5, but I still like it where it is now at 9.

Over 9 Runs -105 to win 2 Units.

Podcast 810 – 34 – 26 – With Ron Marmalefski – The 2026 NFL Draft – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today!  Ron Marmalefski @RonAceSports from The Inside Blitz is back to break down a huge NFL draft!  First, the guys talk about the overall strength of the draft.  Next, Ron and Kiev talk about the first five picks.   What is different than the general consensus.  We also give out a few Best Bets!  Then, Ron and Kiev talk about some positions and why we might see some different trends that we have in the past.  After that, Ron and Kiev talk about value and where some guys might fall.   Finally, we give out a longshot that we like for some big + money!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

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UFC 327 MAIN EVENT Best Bet – Prochazka vs Ulberg – Sports Betting

Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg  -104

  • This is a great event in Miami with two huge light heavyweight fighters.   
  • I must say, that I am a fan of both guys, but there are a few things that stick out to me.
  • Jiri has only went to one decision in his fighting career.   He has yet to go the distance in the UFC.
  • Jiri has a full arsenol of ways to win the fight as he has 28 KOs and 3 submissions with plenty of grappling while Ulberg is mainly a stand up fighter.
  • Carlos has the power.  His record boasts 13 wins with 8 KOs.   If this fight stays standing, Carlos should have the upper hand landing 6.54 significant strikes to Jiri’s 5.69.
  • The problem with Jiri is that he has no defense.  He absorbs about 5.6 significant strikes per minute which is much higher than Carlos at 4.  
  • With this being a 5 round right, I say that either Carlos wins by Knockout, or maybe, just maybe Jiri can sneak in a submission for us for a massive payout.

Play:  Carlos ulberg by KO/TKO +195 – 1 star
Jiri Prochazka by submission +1600 – .25 stars

Bonus Play:   Tatiana Suarez by points +130 – 1 star – Tatiana is the better wrestler, and that will be poison for Loopy Godinez as she was already wrecked on the mat over the past few years by Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba.   

NFL 2026 Season Pythagorean Win Totals from 2025 Data

Football is often described as a game of inches—where being off by even one can determine the difference between victory and defeat in a league with limited opportunities. The unique shape of the football itself introduces a degree of unpredictability, influencing everything from field position on punts to the way the ball spins on field‑goal attempts. Randomness also affects when points are scored, which can ultimately shape a team’s final win–loss record. Let’s face it, luck often becomes a deciding factor in a football season, and the best teams don’t always beat the worst ones. Take September 7th of last year, for example, when the Raiders defeated the Patriots 20–33. How does that happen?

As NFL analysts and sports bettors, we aim to develop reliable methods to predict future outcomes with greater accuracy. Wins and losses offer a glimpse, but they rarely provide the full picture or serve as strong indicators of future success. By identifying scientific approaches that connect past performance to future results, we deepen our understanding and improve our profitability. Today, we’ll explore the 2025 Pythagorean win‑total calculation as a predictive tool for the 2026 NFL season.

Can an NFL team outscore its opponents and still finish with a losing record? Or score fewer points than it allows yet end up with a winning record? Surprisingly, both scenarios occur almost every year. In 2025, for instance, the Baltimore Ravens scored 424 points and allowed 398, yet finished with a losing record of eight wins.

Teams often pile up points in blowouts but lose tightly contested games—a pattern that highlights the need to evaluate performance beyond surface‑level results. By analyzing data such as total points scored and total points allowed, we gain a clearer understanding of a team’s expected performance compared to its actual results. This approach, known as the Pythagorean win‑total method, helps uncover discrepancies and project realistic expectations for the following season.

According to the 2011 edition of the Football Outsiders Almanac, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team leading the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were claimed by the team with the most actual victories.” The statistical significance of the Pythagorean wins theorem has held up ever since.  

The Pythagorean theorem—expressed as a2+b2=c2—calculates the hypotenuse of a right triangle (c), or in our case, the expected relationship between points scored and points allowed. Imagine points scored as (a) and points allowed as (b).   The value of (c) is derived from the squared relationship between the two. By understanding the ratio a2/c2 (where c2=a2+b2), we can estimate the percentage of games a team should win, then multiply that percentage by the total number of games. A tall, narrow triangle represents a team scoring far more points than it allows; a short, wide triangle represents the opposite.

You might wonder why we don’t simply use points scored divided by total points as the basis for predictions. The answer is simple: it doesn’t work. If a team scores 75% of the total points and allows 25%, would you expect them to win 75% of their games? Absolutely not. A team averaging 30 points per game while allowing just 10 would be expected to win far more. Consider the 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16–0. They scored 68.3% of the total points (36.8 per game on offense, 17.1 allowed on defense) and far exceeded 12 wins. Their Pythagorean win total—13.76—aligns much more closely with their dominance.

But there’s more to consider. The basic Pythagorean equation has limitations if left unadjusted. It tends to pull teams toward the middle, even when real‑world outcomes vary more dramatically. To account for these differences, adjustments must reflect the nuances of each sport—football included. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders suggests that each team’s exponent should vary based on its points scored.

According to Schatz, the formula for the exponent that works best in the NFL is:

1.5 × log((PF + PA) / G)

Much of the remaining randomness comes from inconsistent officiating, injuries, and pure luck. The average exponent across teams is 2.46.

One factor we can partially account for is turnovers. Every year, teams experience what’s known as turnover luck. Whether good or bad, turnovers directly affect scoring and game outcomes. A team in field‑goal range might fumble away three points, while a defense may be put in a terrible position after an offensive turnover deep in its own territory. Last season, the Bills had the best turnover margin at +24, while the Browns had the worst at –22. No surprise there.

Turnovers are widely considered to be worth about four points each, and the traditional view is that they’re mostly random. I disagree. Recent team histories show that turnovers are somewhat predictable. Before Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston consistently produced negative turnover margins for the Buccaneers. Indianapolis has also been reliably negative for years. On the other hand, some teams consistently protect the ball, while others field ball‑hawking defenses that force more turnovers than average. The Steelers are excellent at ball security, and the Ravens—dominant in their division—have posted positive turnover margins in each of the last five seasons.

Because of this, I’ve adjusted the turnover value from four points to two, awarding or penalizing each team one point on offense and one on defense based on its 2025 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers gives us a clearer picture of what each team’s expected wins should have been in a cleaner, more neutral season. In essence, teams with negative turnover margins receive a boost in expected wins, while teams with unusually high positive margins see their expected wins reduced to account for luck. Even though some teams consistently take care of the ball, outliers still exist. Fumble luck, in particular, is far less predictable than interceptions. 

Please see our chart below for actual wins versus Pythagorean expected wins.

Using this diagram, we can make informed judgments about each team’s true strength—not only how well they score, but how well they defend. By comparing last season’s actual results with Pythagorean expectations, we can identify which teams overachieved and which underachieved in 2025. Here are the five biggest outliers on each side:

Over-achievers:

  1. Chicago Bears:  Da Bears had 8.04 expected wins compared to their 11 actual wins.  A -2.96 difference. They were certainly the luckiest team in the NFL for the 2025 season.  A massive +22 turnover margin was the icing on the cake.  This Bears team was the 4th quarter comeback kids.  Can they make the playoffs or even win the division going from a 4th place schedule to a 1st place schedule?   Well, that will mainly be up to the coaching and the quarterback play.
  2. Denver Broncos:  Good ole Denver was here to clean up the misfortunes of the Chiefs.  Well, until the playoffs that is.  The Horses had had only 11.21 expected wins compared to their 14 actual wins last year.  A -2.79 difference.  Now with a first place schedule, and a healthier division, will this team win anywhere close to 14 games?
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Who is not sick of this slightly above average team?  Steeler nation had expected wins of 8.12 compared to their 10 actual wins last year.  A -1.88 difference.  Aaron Rogers swoops in to achieve his normal regular season glory, only to crap out in the playoffs.  The usual.
  4. LA Chargers:  The Bolts had expected wins of 9.2 compared to their 11 actual wins last year.  A -1.80 difference.  Another team in the AFC West who benefited from an easier schedule due to the Mahomes injury and the Raiders just being the Raiders.  Can Jim Harbaugh keep it boring again for the 2026 season?
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars:  This London loving team had expected wins of 11.36 compared to their 13 actual wins last year.  A -1.64 difference. This team was also quite fortunate with a +13 turnover margin before they choked away their chances at home in the playoffs.   Thus far, Liem Cohen has proven to be a solid heard coach, so that is what we need to factor in for 2026.

Under-achievers:

  1. Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs had expected wins of 9.57 compared to their 6 actual wins last year.  A +3.57 difference.  Now clearly much of this was due to the bad injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but even before that, we must remember from last year that this team won 15 games with a Pythagorean win total of 9.86 which made them the biggest regression candidate for 2025.  The Chiefs under 11.5 wins was our best bet from last year’s article.
  2. NY Giants:  The G-Men had expected wins of 7.10 compared to their utterly gross 4 actual wins from last season.  A +3.10 difference.  The Giants moved on from their coach Tony Daboll and hired a proven commodity in John Harbaugh.  The Giants also have a quarterback with Jaxson Dart, and one hell of a running back in Cam Skattebo.  As this division opens up, I think that the Giants are on the right path to the playoffs.
  3. Arizona Cardinals:  The Red Birds had expected wins of 5.33 compared to their 3 actual wins from last season.  A +2.33 difference. Lot’s of changes in this organization as they say goodbye to coach Rich Gannon and hello to new coach Mike LaFleur.  I am not a big fan of the little brother perspective in general, but this team still needs a quarterback after they sent Kyler Murray and is Xbox over to Minnesota.
  4. Indianapolis Colts:  The Ponies had expected wins of 9.93 compared to their 8 actual wins from last season.   A +1.93 difference.  The demise of this team after Daniel Jones’s injury was significant.  Imagine starting the season 8-2 and then losing your last seven games to finish out the season.  The good news is that this is a division that can be conquered for the 2026/2027 season.
  5. Washington Commanders:  The Commie’s had expected wins of 6.7 compared to 5 actual wins. A +1.70 difference.  From rags to riches and back to rags again was the story when rookie of the year quarterback Jayden Daniel’s dislocated his elbow.  He tried to come back too early and re-injured it.  This team however should have won a few more games with Marcus Mariota as they lost two games in overtime.  

Best Bet:  Giants over 7.5 wins +105

Some fans of the Pythagorean win total formula do not want turnovers involved for the argument that turnovers are more predictible.  I do not agree with that assessment, but to try and keep everyone happy, I decided this year to insert a chart here below that shows the formulas without factoring in turnovers.  Notice that the most fortunate team in the Chicago Bears who had a +22  turnover margin moves down to second most fortunate with a -1.84 difference as the Broncos are now in first In that category now up -2.95 wins.     

In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved.  Remember to take this information for what it’s worth.  When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts along with the anti-clutch performances of Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith.  Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.

Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success or failure of NFL teams going into their 2026/2027 season, and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results.  The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis for next season and beyond.  Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev.  Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.

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