This year’s Kentucky Derby field features a dynamic mix of solid contenders and intriguing longshots, setting the stage for a thrilling race. Renegade is the morning line favorite at 4-1 favorite, odds. He has been very sharp winning three of his last four races, and hitting the board in all five of his races. His easy win in the Arkansas Derby cemented his status as a top contender, and under the expert guidance of trainer Todd Pletcher. The Sad thing for this horse is that he drew the 1 hole which no horse has won from since the 1980s. Commandment, at 6-1 odds, is a major threat in this race who is trained by Brad Cox. This amazing stalker has won all four of his last four races since November 25th including the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. Coming out of the six hole, this horse has to be used.
Further Ado, the Blue Grass winner, is an undeniable talent winning three of his last four races. He is also trained by Brad Cox, and just like Renegade, won three of his last four races while having the biggest Beyers speed figure at 106 in his last race at Keenland. Another must use horse. The horse in the nine hole is named Puma, who rumor has it, has a large Taylor Swift bet on him to win the Derby. This horse did great in the Florida Derby only to be edged slightly by Commandment. I will have this horse in my second position in my tries. Chief Wallabee, is the final big contender who was edged out to third in the Florida Derby in that big photo finish. I believe that he would have won based on his breeding, if it was a mile and a quarter like we see here at the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Bill Mott, will put blinkers on this horse as he has seemed to get distracted running down the stretch. I like the move even though no horse has won the derby over the last 11 times that blinkers were either added or removed.
My Thoughts:
The weather is looking brisk in Louisville Kentucky at a high of 57 degrees with low 8 MPH wins. The key is that we will not have any rain. My strategy in this race is to look for price. I think that on a cold day, we could see some of these mid horses hit the board or maybe even take the roses.
The big problem with Renegade, is that this horse has a crack in his hoof causing him to use a smaller shoe. I have heard that he also may have some leg problems. I will scratch him off of my ticket. I also think that another favorite in So Happy got the perfect trip at Santa Anita, but does not have the pedigree to go 1 1/4 mile in this race.
My Picks:
I see seven horses that can win, so I am going to go exacta heavy. I do however like three horses on top of my trifectas due to price and pedigree. The 7 Danon Bourbon, would normally be a fade horse, but he broke records overseas, and his price at 20-1 is very enticing. He has the pedigree to win this race with Maxfield as the sire, and Wild Ridge (Tapit) as the dam. The 12 horse Chief Wallabee, This horse is a Bill Mott horse that will be adding blinkers. Many think he would have won the Florida Derby if it was one furlong longer. He was distracted, but the blinkers may help. The 15 horse Emerging Market, is the final piece to my puzzle. Flavien Prat is one of the most successful Jockeys at the Derby, and I believe that this horse won his last race at Fair Ground on a tough trip. The price is just better than the others at 15-1.
The other horses that can win are the 6 horse Commandment, the 11 horse Incredibolt (who has won two races at Churchill downs), the 9 horse in Puma, and the 18 horse in Further Ado who had the best Beyer’s speed figure at 106.
The way I am constructing my ticket is based more on Exactas as I can see quite a few winners. The total ticket costs $340 and if you like you can halve those bets and still play the derby for $170.00. Remember to bet responsibly. Best of luck to you in all of your plays!
*tickets will be lower cost without Puma as he now has scratched due a leg issue.
He’s got all the info for you, I’m just gonna lay you out my picks.
I knew going in that there’s too many horses I like and think can win this thing to be tying up a lot of money betting win tickets. Originally my plan was to dutch some win tickets up with some longer shots the 14 Potente, 15 Emerging Market and 20 Fulleffort. With the 20 getting scratched and now one of the favorites the 9 The Puma also getting taken off the board it has dropped the odds too low for me on 15 Emerging Market to put into a win ticket. To me the only one I am still considering now on a Win/Place/Show ticket is the 14 Potente.
What I have put in is what I feel are a few solid bets. An Exacta box which features four horses and a pair of Trifecta Key Boxes with the two horses I feel have the best chances of hitting the board. I will likely stick a small Superfecta Combo in as well closer to race time.
Here’s the picks I am playing for the 152nd Kentucky Derby.
$5 Exacta Box 12,14,15,18 – Total Ticket Cost $60
$.50 Trifecta Key Box 18/1,6,7,12,14,15,19 – Total Ticket Cost $63
$.50 Trifecta Key Box 12/1,6,7,14,15,18,19 – Total Ticket Cost $63
For an in-depth breakdown of the Kentucky Derby, be sure to check out our latest podcast episode, where we take a full deep dive into the Run for the Roses.
The 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 2nd.
The Kentucky Derby serves as the inaugural stage of the American Triple Crown for three-year-old Thoroughbreds. Annually hosted at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, it falls on the first Saturday in May, a tradition upheld since 1875. Spanning a distance of 1 1/4 miles, the race stands as an iconic hallmark in the realm of horse racing. It’s open to both colts and fillies, though colts traditionally dominate the field.
Participation in the Kentucky Derby hinges on qualification through a series of preparatory events dubbed the Road to the Kentucky Derby. These stakes races occur nationwide, granting Derby qualifying points to the top four contenders. The final roster of Derby entrants comprises horses amassing the most qualifying points, with two coveted positions out of 20 reserved for top qualifiers from European and Japanese Road to the Derby events.
It’s often referred to as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports” due to the race’s approximately two-minute duration. The Derby is renowned for its traditions, including the playing of “My Old Kentucky Home” as the horses parade to the starting gate and the mint julep, a traditional drink made with bourbon, sugar, water, and mint, which is closely associated with the event.
With that said, let’s break down the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby and try to find a winner!
Race Information:
Date: May 2nd, 2026
Track: Churchill Downs
Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 12
Post Time: 6:57 PM ET
Length: 1 1/4 Mile
Purse: $5,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Daily Double, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 12-13-14), Super Hi-5, Odd Vs Even, Jackpot 8, Matchup (1, 6, 18 Vs Field (2-5, 7-17, 19-24))
TV Schedule:
NBC – 2:30 PM – 7:30 PM ET
Weather:
Previous Winners & Odds:
2025: Sovereignty
Odds: 7-1
2024: Mystic Dan
Odds: 20-1
2023: Mage
Odds: 15-1
2022: Rich Strike *
Odds: 80-1
2021: Mandaloun **
Odds: 15-1
2020: Authentic
Odds: 8-1
2019: Country House ***
Odds: 65-1
2018: Justify
Odds: 3-1 (Favorite)
* Rich Strike had the second-longest odds ever to win at 80-1. The biggest longshot to win the Kentucky Derby was Donerail in 1913 going off at 91-1.
** Medina Spirit won the race but was disqualified after failing a post-race drug test. Trainer Bob Baffert was issued a two-year ban from Churchill Downs and is currently serving the second year of his sentence.
*** Maximum Security won the race but was disqualified due to interference. This was the first time ever that a horse got disqualified for a foul during the Kentucky Derby. He also had the third-longest odds ever to win at 65-1.
Trainer, Jockey, & Owner Kentucky Derby Records:
Most Wins by a Trainer:
6, Bob Baffert (1997, 1998, 2002, 2015, 2018, 2020)
6, Ben A. Jones (1938, 1941, 1944, 1948, 1949, 1952)
The starting gate was first utilized in the 1930 Kentucky Derby. Since then, every post position has had a winner besides No. 17. Overall, post position No. 5 has had the most winning horses with 10. Since 2000, ten winners have come from either gate 5 or 10.
Post Position
Wins
1
(8) Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)
2
(7) Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Ponder (1949) Assault (1946)
3
(6) Mystic Dan (2024); Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987); Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942)
(10) Always Dreaming (2017); California Chrome (2014); Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931)
6
(2) Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957)
7
(8) Mandaloun (2021); Justify (2018); Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930)
8
(8) Mage (2023); Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934)
9
(4) Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951)
10
(9) Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935)
11
(2) Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933)
12
(3) Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)
13
(4) Nyquist (2016); Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932)
(3) Sovereignty (2025); Country House (2019); Gato Del Sol (1982)
19
(1) I’ll Have Another (2012)
20
(2) Rich Strike (2022); Big Brown (2008)
Field:
Post Position
Horse
Morning Line (ML) Odds
Jockey
Trainer
1
Renegade
9-2
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Todd Pletcher
2
Albus
40-1
Manny Franco
Riley Mott
3
Intrepido
50-1
Hector Berrios
Jeff Mullins
4
Litmus Test
30-1
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
5
Right to Party
50-1
Chris Elliott
Ken McPeek
6
Commandment
6-1
Luis Saez
Brad Cox
7
Danon Bourbon
50-1
Atsuya Nishimura
Manabu Ikezoe
8
So Happy
15-1
Mike Smith
Mark Glatt
9
The Puma
10-1
Javier Castellano
Gustavo Delgado
10
Wonder Dean
25-1
Ryusei Sakai
Daisuke Takayanagi
11
Incredibolt
25-1
Jaime A. Torres
Riley Mott
12
Chief Wallabee
10-1
Junior Alvarado
Bill Mott
13
Silent Tactic
30-1
Cristian Torres
Mark Casse
14
Potenete
15-1
Juan Hernandez
Bob Baffert
15
Emerging Market
20-1
Flavien Prat
Chad Brown
16
Pavlovian
40-1
Edwin Maldonado
Doug O’Neill
17
Six Speed
40-1
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Bhupat Seemar
18
Further Ado
5-1
John Velazquez
Brad Cox
19
Golden Tempo
30-1
Jose Ortiz
Cherie DeVaux
20
Fulleffort
20-1
Tyler Gaffalione
Brad Cox
21
Great White
50-1
Alex Achard
John Ennis
22
Ocelli
50-1
Joseph D. Ramos
D. Whitworth Beckman
23
Robusta
50-1
Emisael Jaramillo
Doug O’Neill
Horse Preview:
# 1 Renegade
ML Odds
4-1
Owner(s)
Repole Stable; Robert E. & Lawana L. Low
Trainer
Todd Pletcher
Jockey
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Dam
Spice Is Nice (Curlin)
Sire
Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
5
2
2
1
2026
2
2
0
0
2025
3
0
2
1
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Oaklawn
1 1/8 mi
Arkansas Derby (G1)
1st
2/7/26
Tampa
1 1/16 mi
Sam F. Davis
1st
12/6/25
Aqueduct
1 1/8 mi
Remsen (G2)
2nd
# 2 Albus
ML Odds
30-1
Owner(s)
Pin Oak Stud LLC
Trainer
Riley Mott
Jockey
Manny Franco
Dam
Adream (Bernardini)
Sire
Yaupon (Uncle Mo)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
4
2
0
1
2026
2
2
0
0
2025
2
0
0
1
Churchill Downs
1
0
0
1
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Aqueduct
1 1/8 mi
Wood Memorial (G2)
1st
2/27/26
Tampa
1 1/16 mi
MSW
1st
11/29/25
Churchill Downs
1 1/16 mi
MSW
3rd
# 3 Intrepido
ML Odds
50-1
Owner(s)
Dutch Girl Holdings LLC & Irving Ventures
Trainer
Jeff Mullins
Jockey
Hector Berrios
Dam
Overly Indulgent (Pleasantly Perfect)
Sire
Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
6
2
1
0
2026
2
0
1
0
2025
4
2
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Santa Anita
1 1/8 mi
SA Derby (G1)
4th
2/7/26
Santa Anita
1 mi
R. B. Lewis (G3)
2nd
10/31/25
Del Mar
1 1/16 mi
BC Juvenile (G1)
5th
# 4 Litmus Test
ML Odds
50-1
Owner(s)
Trainer
Bob Baffert
Jockey
Martin Garcia
Dam
Study Hard (Malibu Moon)
Sire
Nyquist (Uncle Mo)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
7
2
0
2
2026
2
0
0
1
2025
5
2
0
1
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Oaklawn
1 1/8 mi
Arkansas Derby (G1)
7th
3/1/26
Oaklawn
1 1/16 mi
Rebel (G2)
3rd
12/13/25
Los Alamitos
1 1/16 mi
Los Al Futurity (G2)
1st
# 6 Commandment
ML Odds
6-1
Owner(s)
Wathnan Racing
Trainer
Brad Cox
Jockey
Luis Saez
Dam
Sippican Harbor (Orb)
Sire
Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
5
4
0
0
2026
3
3
0
0
2025
2
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
1
1
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Gulfstream
1 1/8 mi
Florida Derby (G1)
1st
2/28/26
Gulfstream
1 1/16 mi
Fountain of Youth (G2)
1st
1/3/26
Gulfstream
1 mi
Mucho Macho Man Stakes
1st
# 7 Danon Bourbon
ML Odds
20-1
Owner(s)
Danox Co. Ltd
Trainer
Manabu Ikezoe
Jockey
Atsuya Nishimura
Dam
Wild Ridge (Tapit)
Sire
Maxfield (Street Sense)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
3
3
0
0
2026
2
2
0
0
2025
1
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Nakayama
1 1/8 mi
Fukuryu Stakes
1st
2/15/26
Kyoto
1 1/4 mi
Allowance
1st
10/26/25
Kyoto
1 1/8 mi
Maiden
1st
# 8 So Happy
ML Odds
15-1
Owner(s)
Saints or Sinners; Norman Stables
Trainer
Mark Glatt
Jockey
Mike Smith
Dam
So Cunning (Blame)
Sire
Runhappy (Super Saver
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
4
3
0
1
2026
3
2
0
1
2025
1
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Santa Anita
1 1/8 mi
SA Derby (G1)
1st
3/7/26
Santa Anita
1 1/16 mi
San Felipe (G2)
3rd
1/10/26
Santa Anita
7f
San Vicente (G2)
1st
# 9 The Puma
ML Odds
10-1
Owner(s)
OGMA Investments LLC et al.
Trainer
Gustavo Delgado
Jockey
Javier Castellano
Dam
Eve of War (Declaration of War)
Sire
Essential Quality (Tapit)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
4
1
2
1
2026
4
1
2
1
2025
0
0
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Gulfstream
1 1/8 mi
Florida Derby (G1)
2nd
3/7/26
Tampa
1 1/16 mi
Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
1st
2/7/26
Tampa
1 1/16 mi
Sam F. Davis
3rd
# 10 Wonder Dean (JPN)
ML Odds
30-1
Owner(s)
Yoshinari Yamamoto
Trainer
Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey
Ryusei Sakai
Dam
Wonder Siang Praw
Sire
Dee Majesty
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
6
2
2
0
2026
2
1
0
0
2025
4
1
2
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Meydan (UAE)
1 3/16 mi
UAE Derby (G2)
1st
2/14/26
Riyadh (KSA)
1 mi
Saudi Derby (G3)
4th
12/20/25
Hanshin (JPN)
1 1/8 mi
Poinsettia Stakes
2nd
# 11 Incredibolt
ML Odds
20-1
Owner(s)
Pin Oak Stud LLC
Trainer
Riley Mott
Jockey
Jaime A. Torres
Dam
Sapphire Spitfire (Awesome Again)
Sire
Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
5
3
0
0
2026
2
1
0
0
2025
3
2
0
0
Churchill Downs
2
2
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/14/26
Colonial
1 1/8 mi
Virginia Derby
1st
1/31/26
Gulfstream
1 1/16 mi
Holy Bull (G3)
6th
10/26/25
Churchill Downs
1 1/16 mi
Street Sense (G3)
1st
# 12 Chief Wallabee
ML Odds
8-1
Owner(s)
Michael & Katherine Ball
Trainer
Bill Mott
Jockey
Junior Alvarado
Dam
A La Lucie (Medaglia d’Oro)
Sire
Constitution (Tapit)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
3
1
1
1
2026
3
1
1
1
2025
0
0
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Gulfstream
1 1/8 mi
Florida Derby (G1)
3rd
2/28/26
Gulfstream
1 1/16 mi
Fountain of Youth (G2)
2nd
1/10/26
Gulfstream
7f
MSW
1st
# 14 Potente
ML Odds
20-1
Owner(s)
Speedway Stables LLC
Trainer
Bob Baffert
Jockey
Juan Hernandez
Dam
Sweet Sting (Awesome Again)
Sire
Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
3
2
1
0
2026
3
2
1
0
2025
0
0
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Santa Anita
1 1/8 mi
SA Derby (G1)
2nd
3/7/26
Santa Anita
1 1/16 mi
San Felipe (G2)
1st
1/31/26
Santa Anita
6f
MSW
1st
# 15 Emerging Market
ML Odds
15-1
Owner(s)
Klaravich Stables
Trainer
Chad Brown
Jockey
Flavien Prat
Dam
Wild Empress (Empire Maker)
Sire
Candy Ride*Arg (Ride the Rails)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
2
2
0
0
2026
2
2
0
0
2025
0
0
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/21/26
Fair Grounds
1 3/16 mi
Louisiana Derby (G2)
1st
2/7/26
Tampa
1 1/16 mi
MSW
1st
# 16 Pavlovian
ML Odds
30-1
Owner(s)
Reddam Racing LLC
Trainer
Doug O’Neill
Jockey
Edwin Maldonado
Dam
Mandy’s Grace (Bellamy Road)
Sire
Pavel (Creative Cause)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
10
2
4
1
2026
3
1
1
1
2025
7
1
3
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/21/26
Fair Grounds
1 3/16 mi
Louisiana Derby (G2)
2nd
2/15/26
Sunland
1 1/16 mi
Sunland Derby
1st
2/17/26
Santa Anita
1 1/16 mi
Cal Cup Derby
3rd
# 17 Six Speed
ML Odds
50-1
Owner(s)
Brunetti Dugan Stables et al.
Trainer
Bhupat Seemar
Jockey
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Dam
Browse (Medaglia d’Oro)
Sire
Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
5
3
1
1
2026
3
2
1
0
2025
2
1
0
1
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/28/26
Meydan
1 3/16 mi
UAE Derby (G2)
2nd
2/23/26
Meydan
1 mi
UAE 2000 Guineas (Gr. 3)
1st
2/2/26
Meydan
7f
Conditions
1st
# 18 Further Ado
ML Odds
6-1
Owner(s)
Spendthrift Farm LLC
Trainer
Brad Cox
Jockey
John Velazquez
Dam
Sky Dreamer (Sky Mesa)
Sire
Gun Runner (Candy Ride*Arg)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
6
3
1
1
2026
2
1
1
0
2025
4
2
0
1
Churchill Downs
1
1
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Keeneland
1 1/8 mi
Blue Grass (G1)
1st
3/7/26
Tampa
1 1/16 mi
Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
2nd
11/29/25
Churchill Downs
1 1/16 mi
KY Jockey Club (G2)
1st
# 19 Golden Tempo
ML Odds
30-1
Owner(s)
Phipps Stable; St. Elias Stable
Trainer
Cherie DeVaux
Jockey
Jose Ortiz
Dam
Carrumba (Bernardini)
Sire
Curlin (Smart Strike)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
4
2
0
2
2026
3
1
0
2
2025
1
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
3/21/26
Fair Grounds
1 3/16 mi
Louisiana Derby (G2)
3rd
2/14/26
Fair Grounds
1 1/8 mi
Risen Star (G2)
3rd
1/17/26
Fair Grounds
1 1/16 mi
LeComte Stakes (G3)
1st
# 21 Great White
ML Odds
50-1
Owner(s)
Three Chimneys Farm LLC; John Ennis
Trainer
John Ennis
Jockey
Alex Achard
Dam
Kelly Bag (Uncle Mo)
Sire
Volatile (Violence)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
4
2
0
0
2026
3
1
0
0
2025
1
1
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Keeneland
1 1/8 mi
Blue Grass (G1)
5th
2/21/26
Turfway Park
1 1/16 mi
John Battaglia Memorial
1st
1/17/26
Turfway Park
1 mi
Leonatus
5th
# 22 Ocelli
ML Odds
50-1
Owner(s)
Ashley Durr; Anthony Tate; Front Page
Trainer
D. Whitworth Beckman
Jockey
J. D. Ramos
Dam
Zalia (Scat Daddy)
Sire
Connect (Curlin)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
6
0
1
3
2026
4
0
0
2
2025
2
0
1
1
Churchill Downs
1
0
0
1
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Aqueduct
1 1/8 mi
Wood Memorial (G2)
3rd
3/14/26
Colonial
1 1/8 mi
Virginia Derby
6th
2/7/26
Tampa
1 1/16 mi
Sam F. Davis
6th
# 23 Robusta
ML Odds
50-1
Owner(s)
Calumet Farm
Trainer
Doug O’Neill
Jockey
Emisael Jaramillo
Dam
Urbane Legend (Into Mischief)
Sire
Accelerate (lookin At Lucky)
Record
Category
Starts
1st
2nd
3rd
Life
5
1
1
0
2026
4
1
1
0
2025
1
0
0
0
Churchill Downs
0
0
0
0
Recent Races
Date
Track
Length
Race
Result
4/4/26
Santa Anita
1 1/8 mi
SA Derby (G1)
7th
3/7/26
Santa Anita
1 1/16 mi
San Felipe (G2)
2nd
2/7/26
Santa Anita
1 mi
R. B. Lewis (G3)
6th
Projected Pace:
Pacesetter
#4 Litmus Test
#7 Danon Bourbon
#14 Potenete
#16 Pavlovian
#17 Six Speed
#23 Robusta
Stalker
#2 Albus
#3 Intrepido
#6 Commandment
#8 So Happy
#9 The Puma
#10 Wonder Dean
#11 Incredibolt
#12 Chief Wallabee
#15 Emerging Market
#18 Further Ado
Closers
#1 Renegade
#13 Silent Tactic
#20 Fulleffort
#21 Great White
Deep Closers
#5 Right to Party
#19 Golden Tempo
#22 Ocelli
Tosses
These are the horses I’m excluding from my bets. I don’t view them as serious contenders for the 152nd Kentucky Derby, and I don’t believe they have a realistic chance to hit the board given the depth of this field.
# 2 Albus
Albus is coming off a win in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes, but that field lacked strength compared to other prep races. The Wood Memorial has also been a poor indicator of Derby success, with no winner going on to win the Kentucky Derby since 2000. While he has shown some versatility, he appears to lack the necessary speed and would need a significant jump forward to contend here.
# 3 Intrepido
Intrepido won the G1 American Pharaoh Stakes as a two-year-old and looked like an early Derby favorite. However, he has not progressed as expected this season. He finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, where he was beaten decisively. His speed figures have plateaued, and the competition he has faced in California has not been particularly strong. Overall, he has not lived up to expectations.
# 4 Litmus Test
One of two entrants from Bob Baffert, Litmus Test has not shown the same promise as his stablemate. He flashed potential as a two-year-old but has regressed this season, finishing seventh in the Arkansas Derby. His last win came in 2025 at the Los Alamitos Futurity. Blinkers are being added, but that move has not historically translated to success in the Derby, making him difficult to trust.
# 10 Wonder Dean
Wonder Dean enters off a victory in the G2 UAE Derby, where he defeated fellow entrant Six Speed by two and a half lengths. He is one of two Japanese runners in the field, alongside Dannon Bourbon, who appears to be the more accomplished of the pair.
Unlike many international entrants, Wonder Dean has experience racing outside of Japan, which is a positive, and he showed the ability to handle the distance in his most recent start. That said, there were some concerns late in that race, as he appeared to tire down the stretch.
# 16 Pavlovian
Pavlovian enters this race as the most experienced three-year-old in the field, with 10 career starts. He is coming off a strong effort in the Louisiana Derby, where he finished just a head behind Emerging Market while beating Golden Tempo. That performance produced a career-best Beyer Speed Figure, suggesting he may be trending in the right direction.
However, there are still concerns with how this race sets up for him. In his last two starts, with Edwin Maldonado aboard, he has been ridden more aggressively and placed on or near the lead. While that approach worked in those spots, it is difficult to see it translating here.
This field is deeper and features significantly more early speed. Pavlovian may struggle to keep up with the pace early, and even if he does, it is unlikely he will have enough left late to hold his position.
# 17 Six Speed
Six Speed projects to go straight to the front and try to wire the field, but that strategy is difficult to execute successfully in a race like this. He is coming off a runner-up finish in the UAE Derby, but historically, horses exiting that race have struggled in the Kentucky Derby, going winless in recent decades. The pace scenario also works against him.
# 21 Great White
Great White is a synthetic-track specialist who draws into the field following a scratch. Trained by John Ennis and ridden by Alex Achard, he won the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park with an 84 Beyer-equivalent effort, but struggled badly when stepping up in the Blue Grass Stakes, fading to fifth with a 72 Beyer.
His early speed profile could put him in the mix early, but his lack of success on dirt and significant regression against graded stakes company are major red flags. At the Derby’s 1 1/4 mile distance, he appears overmatched unless there is dramatic improvement.
# 22 Ocelli
Ocelli enters off a consistent but unspectacular prep campaign, still searching for a breakthrough win at the graded level. He finished third in the Wood Memorial behind Albus and Right to Party with a Beyer in the low 80s, and prior efforts at Fair Grounds show similar mid-to-high 70s figures with late rallies that fall just short.
Trained by a lower-profile barn and typically ridden by a rotation of jockeys, Ocelli has shown some closing ability at route distances around 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles, but he lacks the acceleration and speed figures required to compete with top Derby contenders. His grinding style suggests the 1 1/4 mile distance could suit him, but he would need a complete pace collapse and a career-best effort to make an impact.
No maiden has won the Kentucky Derby since 1933, making this an extremely difficult profile to back.
# 23 Robusta
Robusta draws into the field following the scratch of Right to Party. He is coming off a seventh-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, where he was pushed to the front early but faded badly down the stretch, finishing well behind the winner, fellow entrant So Happy.
Prior to that, he showed some upside in the San Felipe Stakes, going off at 67 to 1 and finishing second, just a head behind fellow entrant Potente. That effort suggests there is some ability here, but his form overall has been inconsistent.
Robusta’s preferred running style is to go to the front and try to hold on, which is a difficult approach in a race like the Kentucky Derby. With several other horses possessing stronger early speed, it is hard to see him clearing the field or sustaining that pace against this level of competition.
Tiers
Here are the horses I think have a chance to win or hit the board in the 152nd Kentucky Derby. If you don’t see a horse in this section, check out the section above where I explain which horses I’m tossing.
Win Contenders
#6 Commandment
A top-tier contender, Commandment enters the Derby in peak form, having won four straight races, including all three starts this year. He captured both the Florida Derby (100 Beyer) and Fountain of Youth (101 Beyer), grinding out narrow victories against top competition in each.
In the Fountain of Youth, he edged fellow contender Chief Wallabee by a nose despite a less-than-ideal trip. He followed that up in the Florida Derby with another narrow win, this time over The Puma, with Chief Wallabee finishing just behind them again. Repeatedly beating the same quality group adds legitimacy to his form.
Any concerns about his familiarity with Churchill Downs can be put to rest. He broke his maiden at this track last November in dominant fashion, winning by more than five lengths.
From a pace perspective, Commandment should sit just off the early leaders, a perfect stalking position for the Derby. He has consistently shown he belongs at this class level, and his pedigree only strengthens his case. As a son of Into Mischief, a sire responsible for multiple Kentucky Derby winners, he is bred to handle both the distance and the stage.
#9 The Puma
The Puma has been one of the most consistent horses in this field and continues to knock on the door against top competition. He enters the Derby off a strong runner-up finish in the Florida Derby, earning a 100 Beyer, where he was narrowly defeated by Commandment. Prior to that, he delivered a decisive win in the Tampa Bay Derby, defeating Further Ado, with a 94 Beyer, showing both tactical speed and a strong finishing kick.
What stands out most is his ability to sit just off the pace and sustain a long drive through the stretch. In the Florida Derby, he made a sustained move and simply ran out of ground, suggesting the added distance of 1 1/4 miles could play to his advantage.
He has proven he belongs with the top tier of this crop, consistently running competitive speed figures while facing the same key rivals. If he gets a cleaner trip or slightly better timing in the stretch, he has every right to turn the tables on Commandment.
#12 Chief Wallabee
Chief Wallabee is a lightly raced colt who has done very little wrong in his career and continues to show steady progression. He exits back-to-back strong efforts in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, earning Beyers of 100 and 99 while finishing just behind Commandment in both starts.
In the Fountain of Youth, he missed by a nose, and in the Florida Derby, he stayed on well to finish a close third in a tightly contested finish. Those efforts show both his competitiveness and ability to handle high-pressure situations against elite company.
His running style is ideal for the Derby, as he can settle mid-pack and produce a sustained run rather than relying on a quick burst. That kind of grinding finish often plays well at 1 1/4 miles, especially if the pace becomes demanding up front.
They are adding blinkers to him, which has historically led to success in the Derby, but after hearing a few interviews with his trainer and some media personalities, my concerns have eased.
#18 Further Ado
Further Ado brings one of the most visually impressive prep performances into the Derby, coming off a dominant win in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he posted a strong 106 Beyer, the best figure in the field.
In that race, he showed tactical speed to stay within striking range before pulling away convincingly in the stretch, suggesting both class and stamina. He has also proven himself over the Churchill Downs surface, winning last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
What makes Further Ado especially dangerous is that his running style fits this race perfectly. He will want to be close to the front, which should help him avoid traffic and set him up for a strong late kick. There is some concern, however, with him drawn near the #16 and #17, who are also expected to show early speed, so a clean break from the gate will be crucial.
John Velazquez picks up the mount for the first time after Irad Ortiz Jr. rode him in his last four starts. There is no concern with the switch, as Velazquez is a three-time winner of this race and remains one of the most skilled and intelligent tactical riders in the game.
#8 So Happy
So Happy enters off an impressive victory in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, where he won by nearly three lengths and posted a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. He has now won three of his four career starts and has shown steady improvement each time out.
That said, this will be a step up in class in the Kentucky Derby, and there are some questions about how he will handle the added distance based on his pedigree.
His expected running style, sitting just off the pace, has historically been effective in this race and should put him in a strong position turning for home. He is clearly a legitimate contender and was close to making the cut as a win bet. However, the combination of a tougher field and distance concerns makes him slightly harder to trust on top.
#15 Emerging Market
Emerging Market is one of the most intriguing horses in the field this year. Trained by Chad Brown, he remains unbeaten in two career starts and continues to bring plenty of upside into the Kentucky Derby.
He broke his maiden in a Maiden Special Weight at Tampa Bay Downs in February, earning a sharp 97 Beyer in the process. Most recently, he stepped up in class and won the Louisiana Derby with a 90 Beyer, defeating fellow Derby entrants Pavlovian and Golden Tempo. That race was run at a mile and three sixteenths, and he handled the added ground well, making him one of the few horses in this field to have already won at a distance close to the Derby trip.
While the talent is clearly there, the bigger questions revolve around experience and race dynamics. He has the speed and tactical ability, but stepping into a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field is a very different test in terms of pressure, pace, and traffic.
History is also working against him to some degree, as only one horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby with just two career starts, going all the way back to Leonatus in 1883.
Flavien Prat takes over the mount, bringing a strong record in Triple Crown races and already owning a Kentucky Derby win. His ability to stay patient and navigate a clean trip will be a major asset for a lightly raced horse like this.
The bottom line is that Emerging Market has the pedigree, speed, and improving form to be very dangerous, but this will be his toughest test yet. If he continues his upward trajectory, he fits the mold of a classic “could be anything” type who is capable of making a serious impact with the right trip and another step forward.
In the Mix/ Live for the Board
#1 Renegade
Renegade has been dominant in his two starts this season, winning both the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. He cruised to a nearly four-length victory in the Sam F. Davis and followed that up with another four-length win in the Arkansas Derby, showing clear improvement with each outing.
That said, there are several concerns. The most obvious is the draw. It has been 40 years since a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post, with Ferdinand being the last to do so.
There are also health-related questions. Renegade has been dealing with quarter cracks in his front feet and will wear three-quarter shoes on both front hooves. He managed to overcome the issue in the Arkansas Derby, and trainer Todd Pletcher has downplayed the concern, but it is still something to monitor closely.
From a jockey standpoint, Irad Ortiz Jr. has chosen to ride Renegade over several other options, which speaks to the horse’s talent. However, despite his overall success, Ortiz has yet to finish in the money in his Kentucky Derby rides, which adds another layer of uncertainty.
Renegade may be the most talented horse in the field and could go off as the favorite. Still, with the combination of the inside draw, health concerns, and race dynamics, he will likely need a perfect trip to get the job done.
#7 Danon Bourbon
Danon Bourbon ships in from Japan to make his North American debut in the Kentucky Derby. He is undefeated through three career starts, most recently winning the Fukuryu Stakes by more than three lengths.
Japanese runners have yet to win this race, although Forever Young came close with a third-place finish two years ago before developing into a top-level talent. While Danon Bourbon could be on a similar trajectory, this feels like a tough spot to expect a win.
There is enough upside to see him landing on the board, but with limited experience and several unknowns, it is difficult to fully trust him against this field.
#11 Incredibolt
Incredibolt enters off an impressive four-length victory in the Virginia Derby, where he posted a career best 88 Beyer Speed Figure. That performance was a strong rebound after a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes.
One concern is the timing. The Virginia Derby was run in mid-March, meaning he will enter the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week layoff. Historically, that is a difficult path, with Authentic being the only horse to win off that kind of break in the modern era, and that came under unique circumstances.
There are positives, though. Incredibolt is the only horse in the field with multiple wins at Churchill Downs, including a maiden victory and a win in the G3 Street Sense Stakes as a two-year-old. That familiarity with the track is a clear advantage.
Still, his running style raises questions. As a closer, it is unclear if he has the speed to run down this field. He has yet to post a Beyer figure above 90, which is another concern at this level. While he could work his way into the mix and potentially hit the board, it is difficult to view him as a serious win threat.
#14 Potente
Potente is the most expensive horse in the field, purchased for $2.4 million. He did not race as a two-year-old but has made three starts this season, winning his debut in a Maiden Special Weight before capturing the San Felipe Stakes, defeating fellow entrants Robusta and So Happy.
In his most recent outing, he finished second in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, coming home three and three-quarters lengths behind So Happy. All of his starts have come at Santa Anita, though he did post an encouraging workout recently at Churchill Downs.
This race represents a clear step up in class, and there are still questions surrounding how he will handle the distance. His speed figures are trending in the right direction, but relative to the rest of the field, it is difficult to see him as a win candidate. That said, he remains a logical option to use underneath in exotics.
#19 Golden Tempo
Golden Tempo opened his season with a win in the Lecomte Stakes, edging the field by three-quarters of a length. He followed that up with back-to-back third-place finishes in the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby. While his speed figures have been trending upward, he was beaten in the Louisiana Derby by fellow entrants Emerging Market and Pavlovian.
There are also some concerns. He has been dealing with cracked heels on both front feet, although trainer Cherie DeVaux has downplayed the issue. In addition, all of his racing experience has come at Fair Grounds, leaving some uncertainty about how he will handle a different track and a much deeper field.
His recent workouts have been encouraging, and he does appear to be improving. However, this is a significant step up in class. With a faster projected pace and questions about his closing ability, it is difficult to see him keeping up late in the Kentucky Derby.
Betting Strategy
This year’s Kentucky Derby presents a much different challenge than last year’s. Previously, it felt possible to narrow the field down to three or four legitimate contenders. This time around, the overall quality feels more spread out, nearly every horse comes with real question marks, and the pool of potential winners looks closer to seven or eight deep.
So how should you approach it?
Before getting into the strategy itself, it is important to frame what this race represents. For many, the Derby and the entire Triple Crown are similar to a major championship in golf. Casual fans tune in for a handful of races each year, and that is completely fine. But because of that, this should be treated more as entertainment than a reliable money-making opportunity. A 20-horse field introduces chaos, and even the best handicappers struggle to consistently beat races like this. If you are entering with a set budget, you should be comfortable losing it.
With that in mind, my preferred approach this year is targeting a trifecta. There are simply too many horses that can win to confidently single one on top, so spreading exposure across multiple contenders makes more sense. Yes, a trifecta is harder to hit, but this is the type of race where taking a bigger swing aligns with the uncertainty of the field.
If this were a conversation about betting a full season, like hockey or golf, bankroll management would be the foundation. This is different. The Derby is a one-day event, and the goal shifts toward maximizing upside rather than grinding out long-term profit.
Tickets
This is built around a $100 budget for the Kentucky Derby. Feel free to adjust it based on your own opinions or risk tolerance, but this is how I’m approaching the race from a betting standpoint.
Best of luck, and as always, you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback, whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
We have a HUGE show for you today! The 152nd run for the roses is here so it’s time to bring some of the best horse cappers that I know in Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas from @WagerTalk and ‘The Bear’ Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica from Fox Sports. First, Kiev talks about his records in the NFL, NCAAB, and NCAAF. Next, we get right into the Kentucky Derby answering a lot of questions! What will the total handle be like? What is the weather forecast? Which horses do we like here? What is wrong with some of the contestants? How do we bet through this mess of solid picks? Who are the sleepers? We cover everything that you need to know for the greatest two minutes in sports! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2026
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
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Baseball season is rolling. Since our last article we went on a huge hot streak with a 41 Unit week last week. We now sit at 110-79-1 on the season overall +58.88 units. I’m a data guy, and as much as you can look at previous years data early in the season, baseball is always going to take a little while to settle in. The more info I get, the better my results typically are. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com.
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA where the Pirates (16-14) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (16-13) at 6:40 ET. The current line sits with the Pirates as favorites at -140 (Cardinals +130) with an Over/Under of 8.5 -110. Game time temp is 59 degrees with a chance of rain and winds blowing out to center at 10-15.
The Pirates will start Bubba Chandler who has struggled out of the gate. His strikeouts are down and his walk rate is way up. ERA is currently at 4.88 with an xFIP at 5.30. His BABIP against is extremely low currently at .242 so he’s actually been lucky in that regards so far. His pedigree and minor league track record show that he is due for some positive regression.
The Cardinals will roll with Andre Pallante who has a 4.26 ERA and an xFIP at 4.91. Pallante is an extreme ground ball pitcher who has not been as effective in getting ground balls to start off with in 2026. His GB Rate is currently at 51.3% compared with a career 63.2% number. He has also been lucky with BABIP against at .253. Both his sinker and fastball are showing as negative pitch values early on which is not a great sign for him and is similar to what they were last year when he finished with a 5.31 ERA. Pallante is also one of the worst in the majors at controlling the running game once guys get on base.
On offense both these teams check in near the middle of the pack with the Cardinals boasting a .722 OPS and the Pirates at .704. Both teams are top ten in runs scored per contest with the Cardinals at 4.83 and the Pirates at 4.80.
Pittsburgh has the edge in the bullpens with a 3.49 Bullpen ERA, while St. Louis is one of the worst in MLB with a 5.18 ERA. Neither teams used their best relievers on Tuesday, and in fact Pittsburgh called up a top prospect named Hunter Barco to eat innings and left him to hang out to dry after really burning up their relievers on Monday in a bullpen game where closer Dennis Santana lost the game for them in the ninth.
My handicap is a total fade on Pallante today. Last time winds were blowing out this strong against him was a home start against Boston on April 12th where he gave up a Home Run and six earned runs over five innings. Pittsburgh also runs extremely well on the bases at 28 for 32 on the season and they will take advantage of his inability to hold runners. The Cardinals will likely have Ryan Stanek and Jojo Romero out of the bullpen today as they haven’t pitched since Sunday. Stanek has really struggled thus far. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will have the whole bullpen available after not using anyone but Barco yesterday. I also look for Chandler to bounce back a little for the Pirates, but I don’t expect a totally clean outing from him either with the wind blowing out and a 1.50 HR/9 thus far.
Couple of plays on this game for me.
Over 8.5 2 Units. Pittsburgh -140 1 Unit, Pittsburgh RL +140 1 Unit.
We have a WONDERFUL show for you today! The 152nd run for the roses is here so it’s time to bring in some horse racing masters for a great first look. Shawn Knoche, @TheGreatKnoche, Patrick Gates @GatorBetting and The Wiz @WizardPicks comes on to talk horses! First, Kiev recaps his draft bets. Next, we get into the Derby. How is this big race shaping up? What is the weather forecast? Which horses do we like here? How do we bet through this mess of solid picks? Who are the sleepers? We cover everything that you need to know for the greatest 2 minutes in sports! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2026
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
Matchup: New York Yankees (17–9) at Houston Astros (10–17)
Location: Daikin Park, Houston
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. EDT
Broadcast: Space City Home Network; Radio on KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD‑2, KLTN‑TUDN 102.9 FM
The Yankees arrive riding a seven‑game win streak, while Houston continues to search for consistency amid a long list of injuries. New York has been strong on the road (9–4), and Houston has been average at home (7–7).
⚾ Pitching Matchup
Yankees: RHP Will Warren (2–0, 2.49 ERA)
Has not allowed more than two earned runs in any start this season.
Coming off an 11‑strikeout performance vs. Kansas City.
Provides New York a clear early‑game advantage if he maintains command.
Astros: RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (1–1, 6.20 ERA)
Has struggled recently, allowing 13 runs on 15 hits in his last 13.1 innings.
Needs a bounce‑back outing to keep Houston competitive early.
🔥 Team Form & Key Players
Yankees
8–2 in their last 10, outscoring opponents by 23 runs.
Ben Rice (.316 AVG, 9 HR, 20 RBI) continues to be a major spark around Judge.
Jose Caballero is hitting .371 over his last 10 games.
Astros
4–6 in their last 10, with a 5.10 team ERA.
Yordan Alvarez remains the biggest threat (11 HR, .776 SLG).
Christian Walker has been productive recently (2 HR, 5 RBI in last 10).
🏥 Injury Impact
Houston’s injury list is massive — over a dozen players, including Jeremy Peña, Cristian Javier, Josh Hader, Ronel Blanco, and more. This has forced depth players into major roles and weakened both the rotation and bullpen.
New York is missing Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, and Anthony Volpe, but their lineup and bullpen have held up far better.
📊 Betting & Analytical Notes
Yankees favored: -157
Astros underdogs: +132
Over/Under: 9 runs
Prediction:
While Mike Burrows hasn’t been lighting it up for Houston with a 6.9 ERA, he still has been ok from a FIP perspective at 4.00
Will Warren has been more than solid this year at a 2.78 FIP, but looking at the last few years, he has been sub 4 in that area, so I have to wonder if weather played a part of this.
Houston is in a good spot as the Yankees creamed them 12-4 last night.
The good news for the Astros is that they are number 4 in FIP to the Yankees at number 5.
Houston’s bullpen should be ok today as De Los Santos, Abreu, and Blubaugh has recieved some rest. I think that the price is wrong here, and I could see a bounceback for the Stros.
This quick report resets the table for day two of the draft.
Round One and Two Quick Thoughts:
The 2026 draft was not deep. I had seven top tier players, six of which went early. Safety Downs lasted until pick #11.
As usual, OL was picked clean. I had eight OL with 1st round grades. They all went, plus a day two OG (Rutledge).
If there were any positional surprises, it would be that RB Price made it into the 1st round, and only two CBs were chosen, the 2nd of which went late, at pick #27.
Surprises? Of course. For me, WR Tate was a surprise to Tennessee (4th). I did not have any WR graded in my top 15, though I understand that person-team fit could change things. QB Simpson going 13 (LA) was a shocker. LA certainly was in the mix, but I thought they would either trade back before doing this, or get someone who could help immediately in 2026, then go after the QB. I was surprised that TE Sadiq landed with the Jets. And yes, we all knew Seattle needed RB, but with just four picks, I thought we’d see at least one trade back. Price at 32 was surprising.
Even with the shorter time period between picks (eight minutes), eight trades were made. Here’s my quick reactions to the trades. KC gave up too much for moving 9 to 6, but are forgiven because CB DeLame was the right player. Ditto Dallas, who gave up three picks to move up one spot, but for possibly impactful safety Downs. Philly gave up too much for a move from 23 to 20, but WR Lemon would not have made it to 23. Again, I understand. Houston always loses draft value. They moved up to take the aforementioned OG Rutledge, and didn’t have to. SF moved back twice. WHY? Pick 27 is now 33/90/178. I like the Miami move up for CB Johnson. They had 12 picks remaining, so why not. The Jets moving from 33/179 to get to pick 30 was outstanding. Needing WR, they got 1st round talent Cooper.
Did I forget someone? Buffalo, are you still in the NFL? The Bills made THREE trades down the board, eventually moving out of round one. You are NOT rebuilding. Stay and pick, and get some impact. Four solid players were drafted during your trade back sequence which started at pick 26. I hope you use your extra picks wisely.
Safest players in the draft. LB Styles, who fell to Washington. OG Ioane, who matched up perfectly to Baltimore.
In addition to Ioane to Baltimore, the best person-team fits for me were DeLane to KC and Thieneman to Chicago.
Other moves I liked included Reese and Mauigoa to the NYG, Styles to Washington, Downs to Dallas, and maybe Banks to Minnesota, where Flores can work with him. Oh, obviously, RB Price to Seattle is a solid and necessary move.
Here’s what I disliked: Tate to the Titans. He’s a fine player, but Tennessee left impact on the table. Edge rusher Lawrence to Dallas. I had a 2nd round grade on him, but more importantly, his NCAA production (72 tackles, 39 games played) wasn’t good. He has pass rush skill and he’s fast, but is Dallas the right team and culture to bring out the best in him? Cleveland and WR Conception. I wanted to him matched with a San Fran offense. He may disappoint here.
In 2024, chalk prevailed when matching position to team. In 2025, magic with so many longshots hitting. We got only a few so far this year with KC and CB at 4/1, Carolina early with OL at 4.5/1, and Seattle as high as 10/1 for RB (outlier). LA and going QB first was as high as 12/1. Taking Love to go with the 3rd pick yielded anywhere from 10/1 to 12/1. There was plenty of chalk as well, so something for everyone.
Six teams did not pick in round one. I have a few longshots for my positional plays in place for round two, trying to match the position with their 1st pick. The draft gets tricky with 40+ picks off the board. This can be a useful strategy.
I expect a day two run at CB and at WR. We should also see a good amount of DL hear their names called, as my ratings on some of the remaining DL are high. LB is deep and some LB’s will hear their names called on a consistent basis. TE’s should begin coming off in round three. RBs may wait a bit. QBs? We won’t have too many to discuss.
I have only three players left with round one grades. They are DT McDonald, injured CB McCoy and CB Hood. All three now are value plays, although as I painfully found out, McCoy may miss a good chunk of the 2026 season.
Each year in this spot I list players who will be high targets for the next round. On offense, round two targets should include WR’s Boston, Chris Bell (I like him), Bernard, and possibly USC’s Lane. TE Stowers has round two talent. Two OGs, Pregnon and Bisontis may be called as well. I have more names defensively that should hear their names called, as offense dominated in round one. In addition to McDonald, DT’s Hunter and Christian Miller could go soon. At DE, it’s TJ Parker, Zion Young, and Howell. LB could feature CJ Allen, Texas Tech stalwart Rodriquez, LB Trotter and LB Hill of Texas. In the secondary, in addition to McCoy and Hood, keep your eye on CB’s Terrell, Cisse and maybe Pounds, and safeties McNeil Warren and Haulcy. Round one is easy. Can NFL GM’s make the right moves the rest of the draft?
I’ll now go pick by pick, with early impressions from day one, coupled with day two looks. There’s even a place where you can insert the actual pick! Let’s get round two started!
33: SAN FRANCISCO:
Round one impression: No pick. SF traded OUT of round one, (pick 27), ending up with picks 33/90/179.
Round two look: Prior to the trades, SF’s last pick was at #139, in the 4th round. Therefore, I understand the trades. Now it’s time to draft. They can get a pass rusher or a solid CB with this pick. Safety McNeil-Warren might be another consideration.
THE PICK:
34: ARIZONA:
Round one impression: Arizona likely did not receive a trade offer they liked, so they stay and get a potentially great RB. Unfortunately, there’s no QB in place to help move the win needle, but there’s always 2027. Meanwhile, Love was 12/1 to be pick #3, which I greatly appreciate.
Round two look: OL and edge must be the focus here. In addition to the two OL listed above, the edge rushers they could look at are TJ Parker, Howell and Zion Young. Not one of the five are “wow” players, but the needs must be addressed.
THE PICK:
35: BUFFALO:
Round one impression: No pick. Buffalo traded down THREE TIMES. They gave up picks 26/165 for picks 66/101/125/167.
Round two look: I list their needs as OL, run stoppers, WR and edge. Two OL, one run stopper and one edge were selected between picks 26-32. Three had legit 1st round grades. We don’t know if more solid players will be drafted with picks 33-34. Buffalo traded back twice in a previous draft, right out of the 1st round, just like this year. Being so close to Super status, I question why. I’d go DT McDonald if he lasts to this pick, although some question his fit in the new 3-4 defense.
THE PICK:
36: LAS VEGAS:
Round one impression: No surprise, as QB Mendoza goes to the Raiders with the 1st pick in the draft. Next step: Surround him with a supporting cast (WR upgrades, some fixes along the OL) to give him a chance to succeed.
Round two look: I have them looking at WR (Bell and Boston the top two) or DB (Hood, McCoy, Cisse and McNeil-Warren are the top four). These are my next two needs for Las Vegas, and McCoy (despite injury) and Hood carry 1st round grades.
THE PICK:
37: NYG:
Round one impression: The NYG were expected to choose between LB Styles and safety Downs. They pivot, going LB/edge Reese at pick 5. Reese has tremendous upside, but there is a floor. This is a worthwhile shot at a home run. OL and CB are the next primary needs, but safety Downs seemed to be too good to pass up. The NYG went OT Mauigoa. He projects as either a RT or guard, and it’s a fine move, considering the team has a young QB and the OL has never been elite.
Round two look: The NYG will have CB choices here. Hood is the preferred fit, but four others could be considered.
THE PICK:
38: HOUSTON:
Round one impression: Houston tends to lose draft value when trading and that was the case again this year. They gave up 28/69/167 to move up TWO spots. Yes, the OL was going fast and furious, but OG Rutledge had a 2nd round grade and would have been there at pick 28. I’m more upset at the lack of trade value (and why do it) then the player selected.
Round two look: The focus should remain in the trenches. DT McDonald, and a few DEs could be the best use for this pick.
THE PICK:
39: CLEVELAND:
Round one impression: We (I) knew Clevland would not stay with at least one of their original 1st round picks (6/24). They move back to pick #9, getting 74/148 as well in the deal. Cleveland then took OG Fano, the guy many people thought they would take at pick 6. I list KC Conception (pick 24) as a 2nd round talent. He’s shifty and has some short area skills, but I’m just not as high on him as others are. DB might have been in consideration as well, but this was a top three area of need.
Round two look: I have seven DBs on the board that fit here, five of which have draft ranges clearly in this area. DB, please.
THE PICK:
40: KANSAS CITY:
Round one impression: KC traded UP, giving up picks 9/74/148 to get a great person-team fit in CB DeLane. I think the price was steep, and based on what was left, I think it was 75-25 or more he’s there at pick 9, but the fit and talent makes this a move I will not criticize. KC stayed with pick 29 and selected DT Woods, who had a very top of the 2nd round grade on my board. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t go edge with Faulk still on the board. Woods however, is a likely multi-year starter.
Round two look: Now they need to address RT, although I do not see a value play at this pick number. They could pivot to TE.
THE PICK:
41: CINCINNATI:
Round one impression: No Pick. On March 18th, they traded pick #10 to the NYG for edge rusher Dexter Lawrence.
Round two look: The move for Lawrence was gutsy, and is the 1st trade they have made for a top ten pick since at least 1966. Clearly, they valued edge over DB in making this move. Safety, OL and CB are looks here. My Intel says they have been looking DT and LB for day two talent, which runs contrary to what I’d like to see. The players they are looking at are solid, however. There’s value left on the board everywhere but along the OL. I’d look DB first.
THE PICK:
42: NEW ORLEANS:
Round one impression: The Saints selected WR Tyson at pick 8. While I think WR Tate was the better fit, this position is need #1 for New Orleans. IF he can stay healthy, Tyson would be the likely #1 WR in this draft.
Round two look: CB and then DL are next on my need board. There are plenty of round two names to choose from.
THE PICK:
43: MIAMI:
Round one impression: Miami started the draft with 11 picks. They had 13 after trading pick 11 to Dallas for 12/177/180. On the surface, that’s more than fair value, but after thinking about it, I’d rather have safety Downs, the last of the impact players left on my board. Miami took a capable LT in Proctor, but he does not carry a top 12 grade. They had 11 picks. Why do this? The tables were turned later on, when Miami turned picks 30/90 into pick 27 and CB Johnson. Johnson had a 1st round grade with a draft range right here. Miami got two starters, so I won’t quibble even though they left safety Downs on the table.
Round two look: Miami still needs two WR’s, another DB and another OL. I listed four WRs on page one of this report. Miami should strive to draft one of those four, with WR Chris Bell slightly ahead of WR Boston (either is fine).
THE PICK:
44: NYJ:
Round one impression: The Jets selected edge rusher David Bailey with pick #2. 11 of my 12 under the radar mock drafters agreed, but somehow, I’m still a bit surprised. As I said in my pre-draft reports, the Jets couldn’t go wrong with this pick. TE was not on the NYJ list of needs, but Sadiq had a clear edge over any other TE in this draft, and they valued him over WR’s Lemon and Cooper. Is this another team transitioning to two TE sets? Speaking of WR Cooper, he was still surprisingly available at pick 30. The Jets made a modest trade (33/179 for 30) and filled another need. This was well done.
Round two look: The Jets lack a 3rd round pick so this pick must count. Two guards are available, Pregnon and Bisontis. Both have later day two grades, but the OL (as usual) was picked clean. Five viable CBs are available. That might be the best option. In addition to OG and CB, the Jets could consider adding another edge rusher.
THE PICK:
45: BALTIMORE:
Round one impression: Person-team fit. Let the draft come to you. We say this every year about Baltimore. Ioane is a plug and play OG that starts day one. Pick 14 was right in his range.
Round two look: WR, DT and safety are the remaining early needs. The Ravens are used to acquiring TE’s so that move wouldn’t be a shock. I’d like a rugged WR (Boston and Bell fit the bill) to complement Zay Flowers. Safety McNeil Warren is a decent option should the Ravens not find a suitable WR.
THE PICK:
46: TAMPA:
Round one impression: Rueben Bain has historically short arms, but he’s also quite a prolific player. He was a value pick at #15.
Round two look: As noted in other reports, Tampa was not interested in TE Sadiq, but heavily interested in adding a TE. I’d prefer that addition with pick 77, giving Tampa a shot at adding a true LB or going CB here. Pick 46 should yield options.
THE PICK:
47: INDY:
Round one impression: No pick. Traded for CB Sauce Gardner during the 2025 season.
Round two look: My need board reads MLB, 1-2 WR’s, safety and OL. My suspicion is that they look LB or safety, although a highly rated WR might be tempting. One of my top four WRs may very well be available at this pick.
THE PICK:
48: ATLANTA:
Round one impression: No pick. Traded UP in the 2025 draft to select edge rusher Pierce.
Round two look: WR, run-stopper and LB are my top three needs. Atlanta has scouted day two WR’s so I’d make that the favorite. DT could be addressed, while thus far, the CB’s they’ve had contact with are more of the day three types. If there’s a run on WR then go get a run-stopper. I’d pounce on DT McDonald if still available. Lee Hunter is acceptable as a 2nd choice.
THE PICK:
49: MINNESOTA:
Round one impression: DT Banks at 18 was a surprise, but the upside is clearly there. He’s massive, but doesn’t move well.
Round two look: They have to address edge, CB and safety with this pick and picks 82/97. You just CAN’T ignore these areas like you did a year ago. The better players may be at CB, with five possibilities listed as early day two targets on page one.
THE PICK:
50: DETROIT:
Round one impression: Detroit had choices at OT but ultimately went with the guy I thought they would once my other choice, Proctor, was off the board. This was need #1, and the usually eccentric Lions played it down the middle with pick #17.
Round two look: The Lions do not have a round three pick. Maybe they can find an impact OLB (Hill might be the closest). If not, this should still be a defensive pick, possibly for CB first, and edge 2nd.
THE PICK:
51: CAROLINA:
Round one impression: It’s never a bad move to protect your QB, and OT Freeling coming off at pick 19 was proper value.
Round two look: There’s plenty of work needed defensively. I’d look LB Rodriquez 1st, and a draft-dropping CB 2nd.
THE PICK:
52: GREEN BAY:
Round one impression: No pick. Traded for LB/edge rusher Parsons before the 2025 season.
Round two look: In the last six non-covid draft years, the Packers have drafted 34 players who have had top 30 visits. OL and DB are they areas I see with the most need. OL has been off their radar screen thus far. OL and DB represent their biggest needs, and their GM acknowledged the DB need. I lack Intel as to what they’re thinking right now.
THE PICK:
53: PITTSBURGH:
Round one impression: My #1 need area was for the secondary, but Pittsburgh made its intentions known early, and OL Iheanachor was their pick at 21. He carried a lower 1st round grade, and will be used at OT and possibly LT. If so, expect a steep learning curve.
Round two look: CB and run-stopper are next up on my list. They may look WR. I’d hope one of the CB’s drops to this pick.
THE PICK:
54: PHILADELPHIA:
Round one impression: Philly traded picks 23/114/137 to rival Dallas to get to pick #20, where they selected WR Lemon. He had a grade right about here. I didn’t have WR on my top need area, regardless of the AJ Brown situation. I think they need LB/edge, and succession plans along the OL and at TE. I even put the need of safety ahead of WR. Regardless, Lemon has moldable talent. The Eagles have fully restocked at WR during this offseason.
Round two look: I think the Eagles will have options here for a LB, but OL might be fading fast. If there’s an OL still left with a decent grade, I’d go in that direction. As I’ve said before, TE can be a 3rd-4th round look, but it definitely needs to be addressed.
THE PICK:
55: LA CHARGERS:
Round one impression: I like edge rusher Mesidor, and DL was right behind IOL as a primary area of need. He comes off at pick #22, which is fine. He’s already 25 years old, with 53 starts and a Master’s degree.
Round two look: They could look OL, but the value may be more day three or round three. I wanted DT McDonald here. I doubt he gets to pick 55. CB might have value, and LB will have value. I think they can find a player to fit a need here.
THE PICK:
56: JACKSONVILLE:
Round one impression: No pick. Traded for WR/CB Hunter early in the 2025 draft.
Round two look: The Jags have needs along the OL, and MLB, and TE if they upgrade to more of a feature presence. I could see this GM moving up in the round, especially since he has 11 picks, and three in the next round! I’m okay with that, but I’d focus on OL and MLB, unless they want TE Stowers. We also have to wait and see about WR Thomas and if he gets traded.
THE PICK:
57: CHICAGO:
Round one impression: Chicago was shredded at CB/safety and got a break when safety Thieneman dropped to pick 25. I wasn’t super-high on him, but this is a solid range and he fills a need.
Round two look: More is needed at DB, with WR and LB needs also front and center. There are plenty of WR’s to go around, and they are likely to get one with this pick, or with pick 60, below. I’d get a WR, and either a LB or another DB with picks 57/60. Maybe one of the LB’s listed on page one falls this far. Again, WR talent goes beyond what I’ve already listed.
THE PICK:
58: SAN FRANCISCO:
Round one impression: See pick 33, above.
Round two look: I listed pass rusher or solid CB at pick 33. I’d try to stay with that agenda.
THE PICK:
59: HOUSTON:
Round one impression: See pick 38, above.
Round two look: Once the OL and DL are addressed, Houston can go best player available. I’d strive for impact, even if it means a lower floor. This team is close to competing for titles, so a swing for a player with a high ceiling is fine with me.
THE PICK:
60: CHICAGO:
Round one impression: See pick 57, above
Round two look: See pick 57, above for a list of positions that I would like Chicago to look at.
THE PICK:
61: LA RAMS:
Round one impression: Curveball!? LA is a great situation for Ty Simpson, who could learn with a team with MVP QB Stafford and is a true Super contender. Going to the Jets or Cardinals would not have been ideal. He’ll need time and practice reps before we find out if pick 13 was a big reach. Did LA try hard enough to trade back? There may not have been a superstar left at this pick, but LA is unlikely to receive any help from Simpson in 2026.
Round two look: LA passed on a ready to go OG (Ioane and a few OTs with pick 13, plus pivoted away from WR lemon. OL or WR should remain the focus here.
THE PICK:
62: DENVER:
Round one impression: No pick. Traded for WR Waddle.
Round two look: Denver publicly stated that they do not expect many rookie contributions in 2026 (deep starting roster), which is why they went after Waddle. DE, LB and interior OL are my listed needs. OL, TE and DT are the areas they looked at with their pre-draft visits. I’m not sure what the compromise will be, but I’d likely go DL or front seven first, and TE in round 3.
THE PICK:
63: NEW ENGLAND:
Round one impression: The Pats traded picks 31/125 to move up to pick 28 and select OT Lomu. WR, OLB and OL were my target areas. New England may have a pending deal to get AJ Brown at WR that eases that need. Lomu is a fine pick.
Round two look: OLB is next up on my list. The Pats got pushed around in the Super Bowl and need to get more physical on D.
THE PICK:
64: SEATTLE:
Round one impression: GM Schneider stated that he couldn’t find a trading partner at pick 32, which is understandable as picks 26, 27, 28, 30 and 31 were traded right before this 32nd selection. Perhaps he could have been more proactive and put something together as the mad trade rush developed. Regardless, RB was a crying need, and the Seahawks did not want to miss out on Price, who has plenty of wear and tear left on his body.
Round two look: Seattle is left with picks 64, 96 and 188. Center and safety are needs that should be addressed. I have four centers rated about the same, so pick 96 could be used for that need. At pick 64, my decision is to trade BACK unless there is a safety who has immense value. LSU’s Haulcy, or perhaps CB/s Scott from MFla are players that they could consider if available.
THE PICK:
Below is the list of teams currently without picks in round two. They will be listed in draft order using the same recap and evaluation process as the teams above.
69: TENNESSEE:
Round one impression: Shocker! WR Tate (pick 4) is a fine player, but not in my top 15. The WR group is not that far apart in talent. Tennessee passed on defensive impact (Styles, Reese, Downs, DeLane). Tate may be great, but again, the WR gap in talent is not all that large in this year’s draft. Tennessee used fair trade value (35/66/101 to move up to picks 31/69/165) so get back into round one and select edge rusher Faulk. Edge is one of their many areas of need, and Faulk’s draft range fits.
Round three look: CB was the area I had them looking for at original pick 35. It remains a need, but the choices may be for lower rated players now such as Stukes (Arizona) or Everette (Georgia). Getting Cb Cisse here would be ideal.
THE PICK:
71: WASHINGTON:
Round one impression: No trade back for Washington, as they were satisfied with staying at pick 7 and taking LB Styles. I isolated seven players that were worth fighting for in this draft, and Styles was the 6th off the board. This is a more than solid selection.
Round three look: Washington’s next pick is not until #147. Positions they might look at include RB (Emmitt Johnson or similar) and WR (Brazzell or similar). I show them needing additional front seven talent. A trade back should be in consideration.
THE PICK:
92: DALLAS:
Round one impression: Dallas began the day with eight picks, including picks 12 and 20. Yes, they grossly overtraded with Miami, sending picks 12/177/180 to the Dolphins to move u just one spot, but safety Downs was the last of the super seven impact players left on my board. Getting an impact CB/DB was one of four needs on my board, and Downs is that guy. Dallas recouped picks later in the 1st round, getting 23/114/137 for pick #20. They selected edge rusher Lawrence with pick 23. On the surface, getting Downs and an edge rusher and turning picks 177/180 into 114/137 is brilliant, but I’m not the biggest fan of matching Lawrence to this team. Pass rusher WAS my biggest need, so that’s a match, but why not Faulk or even Parker?
Round three look: I’d go LB (with some run D skills) or RT with this pick. I suspect LB will have the most value by this time.
