Kennesaw State only out-gained UTEP 304 to 295 yet win 33-20. Equal turnovers at one but poor officiating got the the Miners.
Marshall out-gained Coastal Carolina 432 to 410 yet lost 44-27. A massive 5-2 turnover ratio got the herd.
Clemson out-gained Duke 560 to 439 yet lost 46-45. A 1-0 turnover ratio, poor officiating and poor special teams got the Paws.
Michigan State out-gained Minnesota 467 to 301 yet lost 23-20. Equal turnovers at 0, but seven sacks, 10 penalties and a few bad calls got Sparty.
Arkansas out-gained Mississippi State 433 to 388 yet lost 38-35. They won the turnover margin 0-1, but very poor coaching and 18 penalties got the Hogs.
Washington State out-gained Oregon State 271 to 184 yet lost 10-7. A 2-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone offense got the Cougs.
Tennessee out-gained Oklahoma 456 to 351 yet lost 33-27. A 3-2 turnover ratio, and poor play calling & quarterback play got the Vols.
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who could bet flat? Who has long or short rest? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football injuries, waivers, sleepers & busts. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
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The 2025–2026 college basketball season is once again marked by a wave of coaching changes. For sports bettors and college hoops fans alike, we understand just how pivotal coaching is when it comes to forecasting game outcomes. One of the most influential factors? Pace of play.
Pace directly impacts point differentials and total scoring, making it a key metric in evaluating team performance. To help make sense of it all, I’ve categorized each team’s projected pace into five tiers: Very Fast, Medium Fast, Medium, Medium Slow, and Very Slow. Teams with insufficient data are marked as NA.
These projections are based on coaching affiliations and historical trends—not guarantees, but informed estimates. Below are the coaching changes along with my pace-of-play projections for the upcoming season.
If I put a color on the team name, it means a pretty substantial change. Red means faster and blue means slower. Follow me on twitter for more wagering content @OBKiev.
Pace Rankings:
0 – 40 Very Fast
41 – 130 Medium Fast
131 – 240 Medium
241 to 320 Medium Slow
321 to 365 Very Slow
College Coaches: Out / In
School: 62 new coaching changes
Alabama A&M: Otis Hughley Jr. / Donte Jackson – Very Fast to Medium Slow –from being number 22 in pace, Donte Jackson comes from Grambling State where the pace was extremely slow ranking 339th. I say pace ranking in the low 300s is fair. Alcorn State: Landon Bussie / Jake Morton – Medium Slow to Medium – Landon Bussie was slow rankings 317th in pace, but Jake Morton comes from a mixed bag of teams, and most lately Florida State. I assume the pace will be medium. Arkansas State: Bryan Hodgson / Ryan Pannone – Medium Fast to Very Fast – Bryan Hodgson had this team ranking 51 in pace, but Ryan Pannone comes from being an assistant at Alabama, and I expect some super fast Nate Oats style pace ranking in the 10s. Auburn Tigers: Bruce Pearl / Steven Pearl – Medium Fast to Medium Fast – This coaching change came as a shock to me, but I do think that Bruce was forced out of his position due to his political nature of trying to stand up for what he feels is right. Same Pace over the years IMO around 120th. Bellarmine: Scott Davenport / Doug Davenport – Medium to Medium – Another father to son arrangement. I expect pace ranking around 230th like it did last season. Bryant: Phil Martelli Jr. / Jamion Christian – Very Fast to Medium – Phil Martelli is taking his 6th ranking in pace to VCU. Jamion Christain comes back from the dead who was all over the place in pace over his tenure back at George Washington. Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners: Rod Barnes / Mike Scott – Medium Slow to Medium Slow – Mike Scott took over last year mid-season. Campbell: Kevin McGeehan / John Andrzejek – Medium Slow to Very Fast – Campbell ranked 267th in pace. John has learned a thing or two from being an assistant with Todd Golden at Florida. I expect very fast play. Central Michigan: Tony Barbee / Andy Bronkema – Medium to Medium Fast – The Chippewas ranked a mid 188th in pace from the 2024/2025 season. Andy comes from Division II Ferris State who had some higher scores. I expect Pace ranking in the 110s. Chicago State: Scott Spinelli / Landon Bussie – Medium Fast to Medium Slow – From Pace ranking 119th in the nation, Landon Bussie comes in to slow things down and play some defense. I expect Pace ranking in the 300s. Cleveland State: Daniyal Robinson / Rob Summers – Medium Slow to Medium – Going from pace ranking 286th, I expect Rob Summers to speed it up a little, but not enough to bat an eye at. I am predicting pace ranking in the 180s. Summers has been all over the place as an assistant. Colorado State: Niko Medved / Ali Farokhmanesh – Medium Slow to Medium Slow – This is a promotion to head coach after Niko left to Minnesota. I assume pace in the 250s. Columbia: Jim Engles / Kevin Hovde – Very Fast to Very Fast – Jim Engles was a red hot mess of speed ranking 29th in pace. Kevin Hovde comes in from Florida to keep that same excitement. I expect pace ranking in the 20s. Denver: Jeff Wulbrun / Tim Bergstraser – Medium to Medium – Going from a Medium pace ranking 225th. I expect Tim to speed it up slightly ranking in the 160s when looking at his time at the MSU Moorehead Dragons. Drake: Ben McCollum / Eric Henderson – Very Slow to Medium – From a SUPER slow pace of 364th, I expect former South Dakota State coach Eric Henderson to speed it up some ranking in the 200s. Florida A&M: Patrick Crarey II / Charlie Ward – Medium to NA – This team played at a medium pace ranking 190th. Charlie Ward who has a bunch of NBA clout comes out of high school telling me that I don’t have any idea. Florida State: Leonard Hamilton / Luke Loucks – Medium Fast to Medium – From pace ranking 62nd, Leonard Hamilton is out, and Luke comes in from the NBA having no clue what to do at the college level. As an assistant, Luke’s teams played at a medium pace in the NBA, so I will assume that medium place continues in the 190s with low confidence for the 2025/2026 season. Fordham: Keith Urgo / Mike Magpayo – Medium Fast to Medium – From pace ranking at 63rd, Mike Magpayo comes from UC Riverside and a very medium type pace. I will go with pace ranking in the 220s to more match the A10 conference. Grambling: Donte Jackson / Patrick Crarey II –Very Slow to Medium – Grambling really slowed things down ranking 339th in pace. Crarey comes in from Florida A&M and a pace in the 190s which feels about right for this season.
High Point: Alan Huss / Flynn Clayman – Medium to Medium – From pace ranking 230th on Kenpom, I expect Clayman to keep it the same as he was promoted to head coach. Thinking the pace slightly goes up to the 170s. Indiana: Mike Woodson / Darian DeVries – Medium to Very Slow – Indiana played at a medium pace ranking 137th. Home run hire Darien Devries will slow this thing to a crawl ranking in the 330s like he did last year at West Virginia and before at Drake. IU Indianapolis: Paul Corsaro / Ben Howlett – Medium Slow to Very Fast –From pace ranking 307th, Benn comes in from Division II West Liberty. Fast pace and big scores is what to expect here ranking in the 20s!
Iona: Tobin Anderson / Dan Geriot – Medium to Medium – The Gael’s pace ranked 130th last season with Tobin. Dan Geriot comes in from the Cavs and the Pistons and I expect something very close to the same with pace ranking in the 150s. Iowa: Fran McCaffery / Ben McCollum – Medium Fast to Very Slow – Maybe the biggest change of pace for the 2025/2026 season. Fran always had Iowa flying ranking 61st in pace from last season. Ben comes from Drake and will slow this thing to a crawl ranking in the 360s. La Salle: Fran Dunphy / Darris Nichols – Medium Fast to Very Slow – The Explorers played pretty fast ranking 106th in pace under Fan Dunphy. Darris Nicholes comes in from Radford and will slow this to a snail’s pace ranking somewhere in the 350s in Tempo. Lipscomb: Lennie Acuff / Kevin Carroll – Medium Slow to Medium Fast – The Bisons slowed it down over the years ranking 253rd in pace. Kevin Carroll comes in who was an assistant back in their fast years. I expect pace back to the 70s. Longwood: Griff Aldrich / Ronnie Thomas – Medium Fast to Medium Fast – The Lancers pace ranked 81st in 2025/2026. Ronnie Wood comes in from the assistant role and should have this team ranking close to that in the 100s. Louisiana: Bob Marlin / Quannas White – Medium to Very Slow – From pace ranking 236th, I expect Quannas White coming from Houston to slow it down even more to a crawl. Pace should be in the 340s. Maryland: Kevin Willard / Buzz Williams – Medium to Medium – Kevin Willard had this team playing fast ranking 66th in Tempo, but the big issue for the Terps was that their defense was so good that some unders would hit regardless. Buzz Williams comes in from Texas A&M with a pretty steady medium type pace. I predict pace in the 230s. McNeese: Will Wade / Bill Armstrong – Medium Slow to Medium Slow– Bill Armstrong was with Will Wade as an assistant back in the LSU days. They played faster then, but his most recent stint at Baylor may slow it down some. He should keep roughly the same pace ranking in the 240s. Miami: Jim Larrañaga / Jai Lucas – Medium to Medium – From ranking 163rd in pace, I could see Jay coming from Duke slowing this thing down some with pace ranking in the 200s. Minnesota: Ben Johnson / Niko Medved – Very Slow to Medium Slow – The Gophers ranked 357 in pace. New coach Niko Medved comes from Colorado State and literally averaged the same pace over the last two years at 270th. I expect pace in the 270s. Murray State: Steve Prohm / Ryan Miller – Medium Slow to Medium – Steve Prohm wasn’t exactly a racer last season ranking 309th in pace of play. Ryan Miller comes in from an assistant at TCU who was all over in pace over the last five years. I think pace ranking around the 170s makes sense. Navy: Ed DeChellis / Jon Perry – Medium to Medium – From Pace ranking at 199th, Jon Perry gets promoted to coach the Midshipmen. I expect the same pace in the 190s. NC State: Kevin Keatts / Will Wade – Medium Slow to Medium Slow – From Final four to fired, Will Wade replaces Kevin Keats. Will have been all over the board, but his latest stint at McNeese had him at a pretty slow pace at 275th in the nation. I think tempo in the 260s. New Mexico: Richard Pitino / Eric Olen – Very Fast to Medium Slow – Richard Pitino had the Lobos flying ranking 7th in tempo, while new hire Clint Allard was quite slow ranking 278th in pace at UC San Diego. Huge change. I expect pace ranking pretty slow in the 260s. North Florida: Matthew Driscoll / Bobby Kennen – Very Fast to Very Fast – The Ospreys ranked 10th in pace and I expect the same with Bobby Kenan who took over mid-season in 2025. Pace should be in the 10s.
North Texas: N Ross Hodge / Daniyal Robinson – Very Slow to Medium Slow – North Texas played at a crawl ranking 362nd in tempo. Daniyal Robinson comes in from Cleveland state and he has his team playing pretty slow, but not that extreme. I expect pace ranking in the 280s. Oral Roberts: Russell Springmann / Kory Barnett – Medium to Medium – From pace ranking 182nd, I expect Kory Barnett to speed it up some as most of his assistant years was spent under Steve Alford in Nevada. I think Pace ranking in the 140s. Penn: Steve Donahue / Fran McCaffery – Medium to Very Fast – This will be a big uptick in speed as the Quakers averaged 209th in pace. Fran comes in from Iowa and will push this thing up to the 10s. Radford: Darris Nichols / Zach Chu – Very Slow to Medium – Radford ranked a turtle’s pace of 356th in the nation for 2024/2025. Zach Chu bounced around the NBA and a little bit and at SMU last season. I expect a medium pace ranking around the 150s. Sacramento State: Michael Czepil* / Mike Bibby – Medium Slow to Medium Fast – From tempo ranking 281st, former Arizona champion Mike Bibby comes in to reshape this program. His old teams played a little fast, so I will assume a medium fast pace in the 120s for now. Saint Joseph’s Hawks: Billy Lange / Steve Donahue – Medium Fast to Medium – From pace ranking 132nd, Steve Donahue comes in from Penn who, as discussed earlier, ranked 209th in pace. I expect a medium type pace ranking in the 200s. Samford: Bucky McMillan / Lennie Acuff – Very Fast to Medium Slow – This Samford team was like a rocket ranking 24th in pace at 71.1 adjusted possessions per game. Lennie comes in from Lipscomb who will slow this thing down a lot to ranking around the 230s in Tempo. South Dakota State: Eric Henderson / Bryan Petersen – Medium Fast to Medium Fast – From tempo ranking at 82nd in the league, Brian Peterson gets promoted and should keep up that medium fast pace ranking in the 80s. South Florida: Ben Fletcher / Bryan Hodgson – Medium Fast to Medium Fast – From Tempo ranking 122nd, Bryan Hodgson comes in from Arkansas State. He will slightly up this tempo to ranking in the 80s. St. Francis (PA): Rob Krimmel / Luke McConnell – Medium to Medium – The Red Flash ranked 203rd in pace from last season, Luke McConnell is promoted from assistant which means the same pace to me in the 200s. Stephen F. Austin: Kyle Keller / Matt Braeuer – Medium to Medium Slow – This Lumberjack’s team had a medium pace of 174th, but a terrible offense to boot. Matt Braeuer spells his last name with four vowels in a row. This and the fact that he was under Grant McCasland at Texas Tech tells me that they will slow it down to the 300s. Tennessee State: Penny Collins / Nolan Smith – Very Fast to Very Fast –From pace ranking fast at 39th in the nation, Nolan smith comes in from his assistant Memphis who likes to run the ball. Same fast pace is my prediction in the 20s. Texas A&M: Buzz Williams / Bucky McMillan – Medium to Very Fast – Who doesn’t love Bucky Ball? From pace ranking 206th, this A&M team is going to shoot threes and fly under Samford’s former coach Bucky McMillan. I see pace ranking in the 20s. Texas: Rodney Terry / Sean Miller – Medium to Very Fast – The Longhorns had a medium pace ranking 176th in the nation. Sean Miller come in and will get back to his race to 100 type ways. I predict pace into the 40s. UC Riverside: Mike Magpayo / Gus Argenal – Medium to Medium – From pace ranking 194th, I expect the Gus bus to speed it up some due to his time under Eric Musselman at Arkansas. Pace should be in the 150s.*
UC San Diego: Eric Olen / Clint Allard – Medium Slow to Medium Slow – Eric Olen had this team at a slow but efficient pace ranking 278th. Clint Allard gets a shot from being an assistant here over the last 10 years, and I expect pace in the 250s. UL Monroe: Keith Richard / Phil Cunningham – Medium to Medium – Keith Richard had this team like a rolling stone ranking 150th in Tempo. Phil Cunningham coached at Troy for about six years and his tempo was also medium. I expect pace in the 200s. UNLV: Kevin Kruger / Josh Pastner – Medium Slow to Medium – From pace ranking 271st in the 2024/2025 season, Josh Pastner comes in after a two year coaching break. He had some success before his last few seasons at Georgia tech with pace in the 210s. That is where I like it here. Utah: Craig Smith / Alex Jensen – Medium Fast to Medium Fast – From pace ranking 89th in division 1, Alex Jenson comes in from the NBA which muddies up some things. I think a medium fast pace is continues in the 120s. VCU: Ryan Odom / Phil Martelli Jr. – Medium Slow to Very Fast – From pace ranking 246th in the nation, Phil Martini comes in from lighting fast Bryant who had a pace ranking 6th in the nation. I expect the same speed ranking in the 0-10 range. Villanova: Kyle Neptune / Kevin Willard – Very Slow to Medium – The terrible coaching of Kyle Neptune is gone. RIP fade train. From 351st in pace, I expect Kevin Willard who was all over in pace the last few years to speed this up to Medium in the 200s. Virginia: Ron Sanchez / Ryan Odom – Very Slow to Medium Slow – The Cavs have been a huge unders team with Tony Bennett and Ron Sanchez with pace at 361st last season. Ryan Odem comes in from VCU with the same defensive mindset, but still a slow pace ranking in the 290s. West Virginia: Darian DeVries / Ross Hodge – Very Slow to Very Slow – From past ranking 331st in the league, Ross Hodge comes in from North Texas who will keep this very very slow ranking in the 350s. Wofford Terriers: Dwight Perry / Kevin Giltner – Very Slow to Medium Slow – The Terriers ranked a very slow pace at 333rd in the nation from 2024/2025. I expect Kevin Giltner coming from an assistant role at Virginia Tech to speed it up a little ranking in the 290s. Xavier: Sean Miller / Richard Pitino – Medium Fast to Very Fast – Sean Miller had a pretty fast pace for the Big East back at Xavier ranking 84th in the nation. Richard Pitino comes in from New Mexico to speed it up even more. I expect pace in ranking the 10s.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to talk about some college basketball starting today! We discuss a little big 10 and some key pace changes for the 2025/2026 season! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025
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Date & Time: Sunday, November 2, 2025, at 1 p.m. ET
Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Broadcast: CBS
Betting Line: Bears -2.5; Over/Under 51.5
🔍 Team Form & Momentum
Bears (4-3):
Coming off a tough 30-16 loss to the Ravens, snapping a four-game win streak
Wins include strong performances against the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints
Rookie QB Caleb Williams has shown flashes of brilliance, especially against weaker pass defenses
Bengals (3-5):
Started 2-0 but lost five of their last six after Joe Burrow’s season-ending toe injury
Veteran Joe Flacco has taken over at QB, showing promise despite a shoulder sprain
Defense ranks last in EPA/pass, struggling to contain opposing QBs
🚑 Injury Report
Bears:
RB D’Andre Swift (groin) and backup Roschon Johnson (back) are both out
Rookie Kyle Monangai will start, with Brittain Brown activated from the practice squad
WR Luther Burden III is sidelined with a concussion
Bengals:
Star DE Trey Hendrickson likely out, weakening an already struggling defense
Flacco expected to start despite shoulder issues
🔑 Key Matchups
Caleb Williams vs Bengals Secondary: Williams has topped 250 passing yards in three of his last five games. With the Bengals’ pass defense ranked worst in the league, this could be a breakout opportunity
Bears Defense vs Flacco: Chicago’s defense has been inconsistent but could capitalize on Flacco’s limited mobility and timing with receivers
📊 Prediction
Bears vs Bengals +2.5 O/U 51.5
This should be a fun game with a high total of 51.5 points.
The Bears have actually been a pretty average team ranking 17th in offensive EPA and 19th on defense. The Bengals have been a step lower ranking 23rd in offensive EPA and 31st on defense.
I like the Bears here for a few different reasons. First of all, the Bears will be able to move the ball behind a good offensive coach like Ben Johnson against a terrible Bengals defense. Secondly, the Bengals have Joe Flacco, but he isn’t exactly a world beater when it comes to performing with expectations. Joe has done well against some pretty bad defenses and hasn’t been tested yet against a feisty Bears team. Joe also has an AC joint sprain that could affect his throwing motion.
Third, it looks like the Bengals best defensive player in Tre Hendrickson may not play due to injury. I know he is also disgruntled this year as well, and probably should not risk it for a future contract.
The Bengals will move the ball some against the Bears, but the Bears defense has been very prone to getting turnovers. The Bears lead the league in +10 turnover margin.
The Bears offensive line has looked very improved this year. I also like the coaching advantage that they have with Ben Johnson over Zac Taylor. Take the Bears below the three.
Miami QB Carson Beck: Efficient and poised, he’s thrown for over 2,000 yards with a 17:4 TD:INT ratio.
SMU QB Preston Stone: Dual-threat capability, but struggled last week vs. Wake Forest.
Miami LB Francisco Mauigoa: Leads a fast, physical front seven that excels at stopping the run.
SMU WR Jordan Hudson: Deep threat who can stretch the field if given time.
🧠 Intangibles & Trends
Miami is 4–0 at home but just 1–1 on the road.
SMU has won 10 straight at home, including two ranked wins last season.
This is the first-ever meeting between the two programs.
Let me know if you’d like a prediction, player prop insights, or a visual comparison chart.
🏈 Team Records & Context
Miami Hurricanes (6–1, 2–1 ACC): Ranked No. 10 nationally, Miami is coming off a dominant 42–7 win over Stanford. Despite an early loss to Louisville, they remain in the ACC title hunt.
SMU Mustangs (5–3, 3–1 ACC): SMU recently saw its 20-game conference win streak snapped in a 13–12 loss to Wake Forest. This is their first-ever ACC matchup against Miami.
🔍 Key Matchup Insights
Defense Battle: Both teams boast elite rushing defenses:
Miami ranks 10th nationally, allowing just 87.3 yards per game.
SMU is close behind at 15th, giving up 95.5 yards per game.
Offensive Edge:
Miami averages 34.0 points per game, with a balanced attack led by QB Carson Beck.
SMU scores 31.4 points per game, but struggled offensively last week.
📊 Betting Lines & Odds
Spread: Miami is favored by 10.5 to 12 points, depending on the sportsbook.
Total Points (Over/Under): Set at 50.5, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair.
Moneyline: Miami (-395), SMU (+310).
🔥 Storylines to Watch
Miami’s Road Test: This is only their second true road game of the season and first outside Florida.
Coaching Connections: SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee was Miami’s offensive coordinator, adding intrigue to the matchup.
Offensive Adjustments: Miami OC Shannon Dawson is under scrutiny for run game strategy. Expect more aerial plays to counter SMU’s stout run defense.
Prediction:
Believe it or not, this game has college football playoff implications. Both of these teams have only one conference loss, while both of these teams may need to make an appearance in the ACC Championship.
Believe it or not, the Cane’s have had only one road game so far where they covered the closing line at Florida State. If you remember that game, it got a little dicey at the end as the Seminoles came back due to some boneheaded coaching decisions from Mario Cristobol.
I think that my handicap here has a lot to do with bone-headed coaching. Looking at the Talent discrepancy in this game, Miami should be able to win this one comfortably, but I do not think that Mario Cristobol and Corry Heatherman will have his team prepared for a dynamic quarterback like Kevin Jennings.
While Jennings hasn’t run the ball well this season, the ability is there, and now that this team has had time to gel with their new playmakers, I think that SMU is on the up and up. We saw some of that with their big wins at Clemson as well as double digit wins hosting Syracuse and Stanford.
Jennings has a nice stat line of 66% completion with a 17-8 TD to interception ratio. Believe it or not, Carson Beck’s numbers are not exactly much better at 73.3% and a 12-7 TD to interception ratio.
I am not expecting SMU to win this game, but I think that they have the ability to back door this big spread. Take the Stangs.
SMU +12.5 – 2 stars
Delaware vs Liberty +3.5 O/U 51.5
When I looked at this spread I had to laugh. Are we really still factoring preseason expectations into these number?
Liberty has been extremely disappointing this year. This team ranks 89th in offensive success rate and 67th on defense. The only good thing that this team does is defend the pass ranking 29th in opponent pass EPA.
The Blue hens have been surprising to say the least ranking a nice 31st in offensive success rate. They rank 99th on defensive success rate, but in this game, stopping the run is what they must do.
Liberty ranks 25th in rushing attempts per game. If there is anything that the Blue Hens do well, it’s stop the run ranking 34th in opponent rushing success rate.
Many people are giving the Flames a bump for the bye week. Let’s not forget that the Hens played last week Wednesday and have three extra days of rest prior to this game.
Liberty has a net yards per play advantage of +.28. The strength of schedules are pretty close. Take the Dog past the 3.
Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know the best action of the year with the strongest fields happen at The Breeder’s Cup. The event returns to Del Mar for the second year in a row in San Diego for the 42nd running.
Races start at 12:05 Central time, and I am including picks for all 12 races on the card, The Breeders’ Cup races are numbers 4-12. The weather looks great and it should be a fast track all day long. I’ll give you my pick to win and at least my top 4 for each race. How you build those Exacts, Trifectas and Multi-Race bets is up to you. Let’s go!
Race 1 – Allowance/Claiming $50,000 – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)– Purse: $175,000 – Post Time: 12:05 CDT
The under-card kicks off with two turns on the turf for limited winners of three years old and up. We should see some decent pace from the outside with the 9,10, and 12 all looking to get to the front. I think this sets up nice for the closer from Argentina 6 Kansas Cat to cross the line first. If anyone wires the field it will likely be the 12 Twirling Point. Also look for a nice price from the 7 We Can who has had two nice speed times the last couple times out.
Win: 6 Kansas Cat
Top 4 if playing Exotics 6-7-12-11
Race 2 – Allowance/Claiming $50,000 – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) Purse: $175,000 Post Time – 12:40 CDT
A short run on the dirt follows up the opener. The favorite 8 Modus Bestia checked a lot of the right boxes the last time out popping the maiden. Not sure I trust one performance however against a big field here. The 14 Bostonian hasn’t lost, but will have to come from all the way outside and fight at least four other horses who will want to run out front. I like the 1 Ghost of Midnight to get into a stalking position here and be able to close on some of the leaders.
Win: 1 Ghost of Midnight
Top 4 if playing Exotics 1-4-8-14
Race 3 – Goldikova Stakes – Grade III – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse: $300,000 Post Time: 1:15 CDT
The Goldikova features Fillies and Mares 3 years old and up. This one sets up for the favorites well I think and I am looking forward to an exciting closing 1/4 mile from the 2 Deep Satin and the 3 Special Wan. 2 Deep Satin has only won one of five starts this year and finished 4th, but only a half length off in the Grade I first lady from the outside post, while 3 Special Wan has found the winners circle in a couple of Grade III contests, and has a third in the Grade I Just a Games Stakes in June. The other top pick is the 5 Medoro who rolls back to a mile this time out which is the distance she has had the most success at. The stalking and closing favorites here should be the plays.
Win: 2 Special Wan
Top 4 if playing Exotics 2-5-3-4
Race 4 – PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint – Grade I – 7 Furlongs (DIRT) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time 2:00
CDT
The ladies will run back to back here with a 7 furlong dirt sprint on tap. Kopion the likely favorite in this race is running with the boys instead which makes the 6 Sweet Azteca the top choice going into the gate. I’m not crazy on the price as I think she’ll go off at 2-1 or better, but this horse has looked phenomenal since coming over to be trained by Richard Baltes. First trip out she set a Los Alamitos track record at 6.5 furlongs. The 4 Tamara has been little run with a bunch of issues, but posted a nice win at Santa Anita on Oct 4th in her first trip out this year. If she can improve on that figure this is certainly a race she can win. Following those two are the Bob Baffert triple threat of 2 Splendora, 8 Hope Road and 9 Richi. 8 Hope Road has the most accolades to her with 5 wins in 11 starts including winning the Grade I Ballerina Stakes last time out. 9 Richi also has a Grade II victory in the US this year. I also could see some pace going early with 7 Haulin Ice right outside the favorite, and 9 Richi needing to get clear also. I think this race is wide open, and would use ALL in any pick 3 format here and try and nail some winners around it. I’m going with the 9 Richi to win with Luis Saez taking the mount, and the thought she’ll have plenty in the tank stepping back to 7 furlongs here.
Win: 9 Richi
Top 4 if playing Exotics 9-6-4-2
Race 5 – Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Grade I – 5 Furlongs (TURF) – Purse: $1,000,000 – Post Time: – 2:41 CDT
A zippy 5 furlongs is coming up here with $500,000 to the winner less than 55 seconds from the starting gate. My original top pick here was the 3 Arizona Blaze to take the field gate to wire , but he is scratched so back to the drawing board we go. 9 year old 4 Khaadem saw a resurgence in his last trip out, but hasn’t shown much outside the US in Grade I races the last few years. Still he has the speed to potentially pull an upset here. The 5 Bring The Band Home faltered in the stretch his last trip, but showed the best speed in the field three times out ago at Saratoga posting a 54.28. There are certainly plenty of other options here with big time winners 1 Motorious, 2 Reef Runner and 8 Ag Bullet the most likely to be the favorites at post time. I think the most intriguing other horse for me now falls to the 10 Shisospicy who has won the last four times out on American soil with only a 6 furlong collapse in the Commonwealth Grade I cup in England showing as a blemish. I think the 5 Bring The Band Home and 10 Shisospicy will be at the front entering the first turn and whoever has the most kick at the end will hold off the challengers coming from stalking position.
Win: 10 Shisospicy
Top 4 if playing Exotics 10-2-5-1
Race 6 – Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint – Grade I – 6 Furlongs (Dirt) – Purse: $2,000,000 – Post Time 3:21 CDT
Sprint’s are hard enough to cap any day of the week, but Race 5 and 6 here with all these champions going at it in a short race really depends more than anything on a good trip and clear space to close it out whether in the lead or coming from a rear position. This was by far my biggest dart throw of the day. 10 Bentornato comes in as the favorite winning his only race of the year last time out 9/13 at Churchill with a dominating 5 length win. He was second in this race last year to the 12 Straight No Chaser. The 12 has struggled the last two times out including a rough showing in UAE. 11 Millikin who was the favorite in this race last year has been beaten the last three times out by Book’ Em Danno, but up until the last run at Saratoga posted speed ratings good enough to win this race. 1 Kopion is in here running with the boys and she wouldn’t be here if she couldn’t pull this one out. If she gets a fast pace from the outside in the 13 Mad House, the 10, 11 and 12 horses might go with setting her up for a big time closing run. She’s rolling back in distance here as well. Also look for the 2 Banishing to make a nice stalking trip. This horse has made some nice runs alongside the likes of Mystik Dan, Mindframe and Antiquarian this summer at longer distances and could have enough speed here to make a run if he gets clear from the inside late. He’s 5 for 6 in sprints finding the winner’s circle and the only loss he missed out by a neck to Mindframe coming all the way from rear pack on Derby day.
Win: 2 Banishing
Top 4 if playing Exotics 2-1-10-11
Race 7 – The Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) – Purse $2,000,000 Post Time 4:01 CDT
We’ve got the ladies going again at a mile and an eighth on the dirt here. Leading out of the gate should be the favorite 8 Seismic Beauty, followed closely just inside by the 7 Gin Gin. The 7 Gin Gin got a Grade I win last time out beating a few horses in this field like the 1 Nitrogen and the 4 Scylla. If she can repeat that trip from the front it’s possible she can stay up front until the end, but I think the pace will be much faster than in the Spinster and we will see her fade much like two trips back where she lost to Thorpedo Anna. 8 Seismic Beauty beat one of my best picks from the last race Kopion last time out handedly. She has had a stablemate in the last few races which haven’t pushed her out of the gate so we will see how she responds to a little more adversity up front at the start. The 12 Dorth Vader took Thorpedo Anna to the wire last time in her retirement victory. Her speed rating hasn’t been as high as some of the others in this field and she could have some difficulty getting into a stalking position from all the way on the outside here so I am fading her here anticipating a tough trip. The 13 Regaled could be interesting going to the back here with a lot of pace up front if she takes another step forward and the closing speed has been excellent. The 1 Nitrogen and 4 Scylla will likely be the other shorter prices here, but with both of them preferring to run near the front they could find some difficulty clearing traffic and trying to keep up with the 7 Gin Gin and 8 Seismic Beauty out of the gate. Finally I think the 6 Alice Verite could be worth a look and will likely be undervalued. She showed decent at the Victoria in Tokyo two trips back and has shown decent times.
Win: 8 Seismic Beauty
Top 4 if playing Exotics 8-13-6-12
Race 8 – The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf – Grade I – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $5,000,000 Post Time: 4:41 CDT
The long 1.5 Mile turf battle is up next with a couple of big favorites. First up is two time winner of this race the 1 Rebel’s Romance, who will be at the top of the morning line odds with the 8 Minnie Hauk. The 1 Rebel’s Romance will likely look to get involved early and pick a point somewhere along the backstretch to try and take control of this race. I could see the 7 Silawi looking to try and maybe get out in front, but there probably won’t be a lot of other quick moves out of the gate which should work well to the plan to have 1 Rebel’s Romance in the clear. The 2 Goliath has beaten 1 Rebel’s Romance at this distance, but doesn’t seem to be in the same form right now based on some winning speed ratings in 2025. The 8 Minnie Hauk a filly trained by Breeder’s Cup falcon Aiden O’Brien kept getting better over the summer against continually improving competition. Three Grade I wins in a row was finally broken in a close one in the Arc De Triomphe where she probably broke for the lead a little early and just got run down at the end. The 10 El Cordobes ran down Nations Pride and held off the 5 Rebel Red posting a solid speed rating two trips back at Saratoga, but was beaten by stable mate 1 Rebel’s Romance handedly at Aquduct last time out. This one is all about the favorite’s for me.
Win: 8 Minnie Hauk
Top 4 if playing Exotics 8-1-10-7
Race 9 – The Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic – Grade I -1 1/4 Miles (Dirt) Purse $7,000,000 – Post Time 5:25 CDT
This is the biggest race of the day, but let’s be honest these are all amazing fields with great horses. These are the best of the best and the many of the horses you’ve become familiar with over the last two years. With the 6 Sovereignty getting scratched we should see a trio of favorites emerge in 1 Fierceness, 5 Forever Young and 7 Sierra Leone. The 1 and 7 have done battle five different times with Sierra Leone coming out on top the last two times and Fierceness winning the Jim Dandy and Travers in 2024. (Both beat by Mystik Dan in the 24 Derby) 1 Fierceness will look to work from a stalking position behind 5 Forever Young and 4 Contrary Thinking, while 7 Sierra Leone will come likely from last with a big charge the final 3 furlongs. Also hanging near the rear will be the 2 Baeza who finally cracked his stakes maiden last time out winning the Grade I Penn Derby against a weaker field. The 3 Nevada Beach is a Bob Baffert wild card who hasn’t quite shown enough speed to win against this field yet, but has the possibility with a step forward. The 4 Contrary Thinking is a “rabbit” in this one only entered by Chad Brown to push early pace for stable mate 7 Sierra Leone. 5 Forever Young returns stateside after a decent showing at the Dubai WCG and winning the Nippon. Third place finishes in this race last year and the Derby in 2024 means this horse can’t be counted out. 8 Mindframe beat 7 Sierra Leone two trips back in the Stephen Foster, but got bumped and tossed Irad Ortiz in his prep race at the end of August. Not sure where he is at stretching out here, but also a horse that can win this race at a good price. The field he beat on Derby Day topping Banishing and Nysos was really impressive and his only other losses other than tossing Irad were both to Dornach where he got run down at the finish. 9 Journalism has been consistent all year in his three year old season, but hasn’t taken the big step forward, and I don’t think it happens against this field. 10 Antiquarian has gotten much better since the 2024 Belmont Stakes including the win over 7 Sierra Leone and Phileas Fogg at Saratoga last time out. So who wins this thing? Well I have a bad history of betting on 7 Sierra Leone when he gets 2nd or 3rd and not on him when he wins like in this race last year. If you want to fade me don’t take the 7 Sierra Leone as that is who I am going with. I just feel the 4 and 5 are going to take off and the 1,8 and 10 will try and keep it tight. That leaves the 7 and 2 in prime position to reel everybody in at the end, and while 2 Baeza is primed to beat this group finally I think he comes up just short of holding off 7 Sierra Leone at the end.
Win: 7 Sierra Leone
Full Finishing Order Predictions if playing Exotics 7-2-8-5-1-10-3-9-4
Race 10 – The Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented By PDJF – Grade I – 1 Mile (Turf) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 6:05CDT
This year there’s no final get your money back allowance race so it’s a Breeder’s Cup 3-pack to the finish line starting with the Turf Mile. The most interesting thing looking at this field for me is there really doesn’t look to be a pace-setter that will want to get to the front and try and wire the field. Lots of stalkers, and closers here, but nobody taking pace out of play which could be problematic for some of the closers including the favorite 2 Notable Speech. The 2 Notable Speech was an easy winner at the Woodbine mile passing a weaker field from a few horses back in the stretch. If he can get in the same position here he certainly can repeat that. 3 Sahlan is a three year old stepping up in age here who has won his last two starts in France and hasn’t lost with Mickael Barzalona riding. He has really come strong from back of the pack including in the last race winning against Grade I competition. 4 The Lion in The Winter is a Aidan O’Brien horse who was barely beaten by 3 Sahlan two trips back. I could see them trying to be that horse that takes the lead and tries to run away with it, and watching him I think he has good tactical speed and could make that tactic happen. 7 Jonhannes is a solid 5 year old has only had one bad start and it came in his first off a layoff this August. He bounced back with a Grade II win at Santa Anita. He took second here last year and could certainly be in the mix again if in top form. The 8 horse Formidable Man is 6 for 6 at Delmar, but has been better at longer distances and is one of the horses that is really going to struggle with no pace in this race. 9 Argine is a mare going in this one, and watching a couple race closes of her I think she’s good enough to hit the board, but I’m not taking her to win. 11 Rhetorical won the turf warm-up that the 5 Program Trading and 10 Jonquil also were in and while I certainly think he has a nose for the winner’s circle finding it in 5 of 6 times out, I was way more intrigued watching the way the 10 Jonquil closed in that race. 10 Jonquil will get Colin Keane back as his jockey and I doubt he waits as long to go as he did in that warm-up at Keeneland.
Win: 10 Jonquil
Top 4 if playing Exotics 10-2-4-3
Race 11 – The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile – Grade I – 1 Mile (Dirt) – Purse: $1,000,000 Post Time: 6:45 CDT
My least favorite horse of 2025 the 10 White Abbario looks to regain his form he had early in 2025 when he cost me a huge Pick 5 at the Pegasus in January. He also won the Classic in 2023 so his best is certainly good enough to win anywhere, it just hasn’t shown in the second half of 2025. I think he’ll struggle to find it here against a trio of Baffert horses the 2 Goal Oriented, 7 Citizen Bull and possible Odds-on favorite by post time 3 Nysos. I thought 3 Nysos might end up in the classic, but looks strong against this field in the dirt mile. He’s going to be in a stalking position and has the best closing speed in the group. I like the 2 Goal Oriented moving back to the mile as he was pulled in by Journalism and Baeza after getting close to the lead in the turn last two trips out. Against the weaker field and with a shorter distance he could show up with a win here. 2024 Kentucky Derby winner 4 Mystik Dan hasn’t won a Grade I since then and while improved in speed ratings in 2024 hasn’t been able to keep up with the top class in the division. Not running in the Classic gives him a chance here, but I don’t think he’ll get his trip here away from Churchill. 6 Full Serrano won this race last year, but only has run twice this year. He had a good initial showing two trips ago, but last time out took a step back. I’m willing to throw that out and look at the fact that he is 3 for 3 in the mile at Del Mar. Pace could be a problem for him in this race however if he has to chase the 7 Citizen Bull out of the gate. 7 Citizen Bull is great when he does get to that lead, if he doesn’t I don’t think he hits the board.
Win: 3 Nysos
Top 4 if playing Exotics 3-2-6-10
Race 12 – The Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf – Grade I – 1 3/8 Miles (TURF) – Purse: $2,000,000 Post Time: 2:10 CDT
Let’s finish it up. The girls running for distance on the turf! Like the Breeders Cup Turf there’s lots of European entries in here. They’ll make it tough for American favorite 13 She Feels Pretty who draws a tough post on the outside here. I’m also not sold on her turning up in distance here against some horses who are locked in at the 1 & 3/8 distance. 7 Be Your Best will look to get out to the front and see how far she can go here, and she should have the 2 Stellify coming along with her. I don’t think either of those will have the speed to hold on here unless they are allowed to really get way out front. Look for the 9 Cinderella’s Dream and 13 She Feels Pretty to try and get in good stalking position. I liked the way the 4 Village Voice looked closing in the clear in her last trip, and the two horses on her outside will also make some noise. 5 Gezora is great at the finish and really showed it winning the French Oaks and has lots of good showings. 6 Diamond Rain could also show for Charles Appleby who just lost out to 13 She Feels Pretty in her North American debut at Woodbine. Her speed looks like she’ll be there at the finish. The 14 See The Fire can certainly win this race, but I hate this draw at this distance at this price.
