After giving it some thought, I’m pulling the trigger on the Bucks for 1 unit at -12. They have a very realistic shot at grabbing the #1 seed now and their schedule gets a lot harder after this game. I expect a big time smashing from Milwaukee against a Washington team that misses Kuzma and has a SOFT front court.
Enough BS – let’s trudge on and try to avoid this absurdity:
Thursday:
Arkansas vs Gonzaga -9.5 O/U 155
Is the SEC really overrated? I suppose we will find out more today. Gonzaga themselves could be a little overrated as well. I find this matchup interesting because neither team covered either of their wins. Now the Zag’s numbers are great being that they win every major matchup advantage vs the Hogs, but it’s hard to gauge those numbers being that they were developed vs inferior opponents and they didn’t exactly let off the gas when up by 20 for most of their games giving them inflated numbers. One thing that Arkansas does well is that they get to the free throw line, and if they can get the Zags in foul trouble early, they could cause some serious first half trouble. I feel like Arkansas can cover the 1st half based on what I saw the Zags do against Memphis and Georgia State. I think that it takes Holmgren and Timme a minute to get going and Holmgren can’t fly around a good defense like he has in the past due to his young body.
Arkansas 1st half +5.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Texas Tech vs Duke +1 O/U 137
According to the spread, this should be a great game! The Red Raiders are the best defensive team in basketball but this I think is a big step up in talent having to face Duke. Tech has destroyed the smaller teams by out-sizing and out-rebounding them, but Duke is a different animal and too tall to be pushed around. The Blue Devil’s have put it together against some of the best this year beating Gonzaga and Kentucky this season. Texas Tech has no actual matchup advantage vs Duke, and the Devils should be able to hit some mid range shots against them. The kicker for me is that Duke ranks 31st away from home while Texas Tech ranks 354th. I don’t like how the Red Raiders played Notre Dame last week and almost lost. I think that from an intangible aspect, Coach K will get the whistles this game being that it is his last Dance. Take Puke here to get to the elite 8.
Duke +1 – 2 stars
In this post, I’ll break down the two Sweet 16 matchups for tonight taking place in the South Region. I have 2 official CBB plays for tonight, 1 of which can be seen in this article. Click here to get all of my best plays sent to you each and every day!
Villanova(-5) vs Michigan O/U 135.5–Thursday 6:29 PM CT
Villanova cruised through the first weekend of the Tournament, racking up a 20 point win over Delaware as well as a 10 point win over Ohio State. Led by 2-time National Champion HC Jay Wright, this Wildcats team is a model of consistency and do many of the little things bettors are looking for in this stage of the year. Aside from their coaching advantage, Villanova ranks 1st in the country in Free Throw%, shoots well from the outside, and is also a very experienced team with lots of continuity. Michigan, on the other hand, is what I would describe as a very volatile team. This team alternated wins and losses over a 9 game stretch before finally getting over the hump with a win over Tennessee in their last matchup. Tennessee is built similarly to this Wildcats team(and are actually better defensively), so I certainly see the intrigue in looking towards Michigan here. Michigan is a team that lives inside the arc and doesn’t like to settle for outside jumpers, and I think Villanova’s defense is particularly vulnerable in the interior. However, Villanova did just hold a similarly built Ohio State team to 61, which gives me pause. I think this number is about right, but I’ll say this: If you like Michigan, play them in the 1st Half. If you like Villanova, play them over the full game. Michigan is certainly in good current form and is most likely to take advantage of any Villanova “rust” early in this game. However, given Villanova’s ability to make foul shots in late game situations, there is no way I could play Michigan in the full game. If anything, I have a slight lean to the Over as well. These are two very efficient offenses who get very manageable matchups. Michigan shouldn’t provide much resistance to Villanova’s desire to shoot the 3’s, and I also think Hunter Dickinson can take over this game for the Wolverines. The worry here is pace(Villanova runs at one of the slowest paces in the country), but I tend to think efficiency and good matchups trump tempo concerns. That being said, nothing in this game made my card for today.
Arizona(-1.5) vs Houston O/U 145.5–8:59 PM CT
You simply can’t deny how well Houston is playing entering this matchup. The Cougars have won each of their last 5 games by an average of 16 PPG; that includes an 18-point win over Memphis as well as a 15 point win over Illinois in their last matchup. Houston has the major coaching edge with veteran HC and 2021 Final 4 participant Kelvin Sampson leading the way. Contrastly, Arizona is led by 1st year HC Tommy Lloyd. Houston takes care of the basketball(1.5 assist/turnover ratio) and is a good 2-point shooting team. While outside shooting is not their speciality, this is the best offensive rebounding team in CBB. We saw Arizona get decimated in this facet of the game against TCU in their last matchup; they can try to make adjustments over a 3 day stretch, but things are only going to get tougher for them in that department in this matchup. Arizona is undoubtedly talented, but this is also the 4th youngest team in the country. I’m not going to cherry-pick stats to try to make this Arizona offense look bad; they shoot the ball almost 50% from the floor, take care of the basketball at an equal rate as Houston, and can also grab offensive rebounds at a very high clip themselves. However, considering Houston’s current form defensively, I believe this is Arizona’s toughest test this season. This game also takes place in San Antonio, a mere 3 hour drive for the Cougars(this is not a very big part of my handicap, but it’s certainly not a disadvantage). I’m going to isolate this game in the 1H and make a 1u play on Houston 1H +1 rather than Houston FG given that Houston shoots less than 67% from the free-throw line, while Arizona shoots 74%. That absolutely matters in a game that’s likely to come down to the wire. I also think that some of the intangibles of this matchup(location, coaching, experience level) point towards Houston playing truer to their form early. However, Arizona has superior talent, and for such a young team, this team comes through in the final minutes of games. I like Houston to take a lead into the Half and for this game to come down to the wire late.
After a brief hiatus with NHL breakdowns we’re back. We have a massive slate of NHL games tonight with some great matchups. I breakdown the Wild vs the Canucks and offer a few other plays. Let’s get into it!
Vancouver Canucks @ Minnesota Wild
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Vancouver Canucks | +164 | +180 | +1.5 (-130) | o6.0 (-105) |
| Minnesota Wild | -200 | -220 | -1.5 (+110) | u6.0 (-115) |
Trends:
Previous Matchups:
Preview:
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks are coming off a game against the Colorado Avalanche last night were they won 3-1 snapping a three game losing streak. They had a busy trade deadline dealing Travis Hamonic and acquiring Travis Dermott along with some other moves. Several of their main players J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and Conor Garland stayed put after being rumored to be on the move.
On the year, the Canucks haven’t been great ranking 22nd in goals for with a 2.81 average. However, in their last 10 games they’ve been clicking up front averaging 3.10 goals for. Their top line of Pearson – Miller – Garland has been great in the past two games combining for 8 points. They’ve been around their season average in shots on goal and in shooting percentage. So for them to start to figure things out up front is a great sign as they’re looking to make a playoff push. Their Power Play has also been converting at a higher rate at 26.09%.
Unlike their offense, they’ve been worse as of late in their last 10. On the year they rank 14th in goals against averaging 2.86 but, in their last 10 they’ve given up an average of 3.50 goals against. They have been giving up more shots recently which obviously leads to more scoring chances and is reflective in that number. Despite their 5 on 5 woes, they’ve been better on the Penalty Kill in their last 10 with a 76.19 success rate.
Jaroslav Halak started last night against Colorado so All-Star Thatcher Demko will get the nod tonight between the pipes. Demko has been one of the best goalies in the NHL this season ranking 13th in Goals Saved Above Expected with a +10.0. However, in his last two games he’s allowed seven combined. He did start against Minnesota in their matchup earlier this season and allowed three goals on thirty shots.
Vancouver has struggled on back to back games this season going 2-5-2 and 0-4-1 after a win.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild were also busy at the trade deadline acquiring Marc-Andre Fleury from the Chicago Blackhawks. Minnesota was in desperate need of some goaltending so that was a great move from them. With Marc Andre Fleury joining the team, they dealt goaltender Kaapo Kahkonen to San Jose for defenseman Jacob Middleton.
Fleury has yet to make his debut for his new team and is not slated to do so tonight unless something chances. Cam Talbot is expected to get the start in net who has been much better as of late and a big reason why the Wild are on a three game winning streak.
The Wild have one of the best offenses in the NHL led by up and coming super star Kirill Kaprizov. On the year the Minnesota ranks 3rd in terms of goals for averaging 3.66 and have been around that number in their last 10 averaging 3.60. They’ve been averaging more shots as of late but their shooting percentage has gone down slightly. Overall they have the 2nd best shooting percentage at 11.2%. The Wilds Power Play has also been around their season average so nothing really noteworthy there.
Minnesota ranks 20th on the season in terms of goals allowed with an average of 3.15. In their last 10 games, they’ve been worse averaging 3.30 goals against. Oddly enough, they’ve been averaging less shots on goal for in their last 10 games. However, in their last three games they have only allowed three goals. Their Penalty Kill hasn’t been great this season ranking 23rd with a 76.3 success rate and has been even worse recently. This isn’t a major concern as the Canucks don’t have a great Power Play but, as I mentioned before they have been better in their last few. Minnesota is also one of the least disciplined teams while Vancouver is one of the most disciplined.
Pick:
Other Picks for the Night:
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Well the first thoughts on the Podcast I did with Kiev O’Neil last Sunday night proved correct. There is no dominant team in this tournament.
Three #1 seeds survived to the Sweet 16 as Baylor went down, but Arizona should have lost and the Zags could have lost, but coaching adjustments by Mark Few who I believe is the best X’s and O’s coach in the tournament brought them back from 10 down at half. Kansas never dominated Creighton, but they got by.
On the #2 Seed line we lost Kentucky to the 3rd place team in the MAAC, startup St. Peters who made it two straight years a #15 seed has made the Sweet Sixteen. Auburn continued their putrid play away from home and fell to #10 Seed the Miami Fighting Larranaga’s. Villanova and Duke fought their way on and both got scares in the round of 32.
The #3 Seeds lost my much loved Wisconsin Badgers, who couldn’t have made a three pointer if the basket was twice as big, and my pick to win the tournament Tennessee, who ran into a very talented and healthy Michigan team who at least for two games lived up to their pre-season expectations. Tennessee scoring 8 points over the last 8 minutes did them in. Purdue and Texas Tech move on as expected with Texas Tech using a smothering defense and Purdue highly efficient offense.
The only #4 seed to go down was the other Big Ten Co-champ in Illinois who lost to a way under seeded #5 Houston squad. Arkansas and Providence who were prime picks to be upset have made it through along with UCLA. Of those three I think UCLA is the only one that could cut down the nets.
Joining the top 4 seed teams are the above mentioned #5 Seed Houston (Now at #2 overall in KenPom) #8 North Carolina, #10 Miami, #11 Iowa State, #11 Michigan, #15 St Peter’s.
I’m going to look at the games this weekend in the Midwest region being played Friday and Sunday at The United Center in Chicago.
#4 Providence vs #1 Kansas (-7.5) – O/U 141.5
Nobody believed in Providence. Less than 19% of ESPN Brackets had them in The Sweet Sixteen. My own Calcutta calculations put their chances at 23% to get here. (I had Iowa at 57%…oops) They are the luckiest team in all the country according to KenPom with only 5 losses on the record and 2 of those coming in close games to Villanova. Outside of 3 losses they’ve been in every game all year and there is something to be said about that. This is a team that creates that luck metric through senior leadership, clutch shooting, and timely defense. When you keep ending up in the same situations you learn how to deal with them, and that is what this Providence team has done.
Kansas came out of the Big 12. Duh Big deal right? Wrong. AdjEM of a Big 12 team expected to go .500 in conference play is +18.64. That’s by far the #1 conference now. In fact the gap between the Big 12 and the #2 Conference the SEC is bigger than the gap from the SEC, to the #6 conference the PAC 12. Kansas is battle tested. Coming into the tourney 13 of their last 16 opponents were in the current KenPom top 50. They went 12-4 in those games against a gauntlet of the top of the best conference in college basketball.
So what is the difference going to be in this one. If you’ve ever seen the late 1980s Louis Gossett Jr. fighter plane movie classic Iron Eagle 2, you know the phrase “Speed Kills Peaches.” Kansas has it, and Providence hasn’t impressed against it. Only 3 teams in the Big East plays as fast or faster than Kansas. St John’s, Marquette and Georgetown. Let’s take Georgetown out of the mix because well, they’re 2022 Georgetown. In the other four games Providence gave up an average of 76.5 PPG, having one good defensive effort vs Marquette. The games they won against St Johns involved Providence using a decided FT advantage to earn victories, but they allowed St John’s to score at will especially inside the arc. Kansas is much better defensively than those two up tempo teams. If Providence doesn’t knock down their 3s in order to keep up I think this one could get away from them. Kansas allows opponents to shoot 30.4% from beyond the arc and if Providence isn’t well better than that they’re in trouble. The Friars record when shooting under 30.4% from 3? 5-4.
I Lean Kansas laying the points, but just can’t pull the trigger on a side with that big of a spread in a power conference match-up in the Sweet Sixteen. I have the total at 143 so also a slight lean to the over here as well, but this one is probably just a wait and watch affair for me.
#11 Miami (-2.5) vs #10 Iowa State – O/U 133
This line has seen quite a bit of movement already with Miami going from -1 up to -2.5 and the O/U dropping from 136.5 down to 133.
I love the Nickname the Fighting Larranaga’s. Seems more fitting than saying there’s going to be a hurricane sighting in Chicago on Friday. Miami had an up and down season with some great wins and some close heartbreaking losses. They went 14-6 in conference including a win vs Duke and UNC early in January. They also lost twice to both Florida State and Virginia. Miami is great on the offensive side of the ball shooting it inside the top 20 overall in FG% on the season, but has struggled slightly on the defensive side of things.
Iowa State is a mirror image of Miami. They a great defensive team and one of the top ten defenses vs the 3. After starting 12-0 in the non-conference they went 7-11 in a very tough Big 12. While the opponents they lost to were all strong the did have some major offensive clunkers along the way that led to some awful efficiency losses. Two of those came in March with a 72-41 drubbing at the hands of Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tourney, and a 53-36 stinker vs the Pokes on March 2nd. Two solid defensive performances against Wisco and LSU in the NCAA has not made me a believer in the Cyclones. Both those teams struggled mightily shooting the ball down the stretch.
It’s a #10 vs #11 match-up so obviously both teams have flaws, but are there some things that can be exploited toward an advantage vs the line and what are they? Staying with the movies from my early childhood theme I look to the 1991 classic Necessary Roughness quote by Rob Schneider “Fumble, Fumbleaya, Fumbleruski!” On the season Iowa State ranks 12th nationally in steal % and 8th in Non-steal Turnover %. Their defensive ball pressure has caused issues for many teams. It is what led to the much of their offense over the course of the season as a lot came in transition. Miami is elite on the offensive side of those same stats at 24th offensively in not allowing steals and 6th in the country in Non Steal TO%. Quite frankly I think the way Miami’s guards were able to play the first two rounds and take care of the rock tells a story. Against USC they forced 18 turnovers and only turned it over 3 times. Versus Auburn they forced 13 and only turned it over 4 times. If Iowa State can’t get turnovers I don’t like them to repeat the defensive performance they had against Wisconsin and LSU, and I don’t like how this matchup shapes up for them. Another intangible is the Head Coaches. T.J. Otzelberger seems like a fine coach who had good success at South Dakota State and a couple less than memorable years at UNLV. He had a nice turn around this year for this Iowa State team primarily by bringing in solid talent through the transfer portal, but I can’t put him on the same level as Jim Larranaga. Jim has been a college head coach longer than I’ve been alive and he’s been here before. He took a different #11 seed George Mason to the Final Four and I could see him doing it again. He’s definitely got some Coach Gennero in him. I could see him turning to Associate Head Coach Chris Caputo and saying “Chris, Call me Crazy, but I’ve got a funny feeling about tonight’s game. Maybe we’ve got a shot.”
If you haven’t guessed by now I’m on the Miami Fighting Larranaga’s. I got it at -2 for 2.5 Units.
Tune in below as Brian Edwards joined me today to breakdown each of the Sweet 16 games for Thursday and Friday! Loaded with leans and free picks!!
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Parlays are bad.
Parlays are wrong.
Parlays are deadly.
Parlays kill people.
Parlays are pretty much the spawn of Satan,
pure evil, ya might say.
*NBA(1u): Hawks/Pistons 1H OVER 117(-110)–6 PM CT
The Hawks are an over team through and through; this team scores at will but plays one of the worst brands of defense in the league. This is their 3rd game and 4 nights and the second game of a back-to-back. Detroit doesn’t offer much resistance defensively themselves, and with a comeback win over the Knicks(a far better defense) fresh on their mind and playoff seeding of the utmost importance, I think we get a good offensive effort from the Hawks. However, it’s hard to ignore a key stat that factors into this play. The Pistons have run at an average pace all season, but over their last 3 games, they are running at the 3rd fastest pace in the league. Consequently, all 3 of those games flew over the total. You might ask why I’m playing this 1H Over instead of the full game Over. In this 3rd in 4 spot, Atlanta consistently plays true to themselves offensively and then gets fatigued in the 2nd Half, often leading to the 1H total soaring over while the FG total stays Under. I fell victim to this a week ago when they played Charlotte, and I have learned my lesson. 1H Over is the play in this one.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Hornets 1H, Heat(-102)–6 PM CT
The Hornets have been at home for over a week, which gives them a major advantage over the Knicks who flew into Charlotte overnight and are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Charlotte has been a pretty reliable offense all season, but what gives me enough confidence to include them in this play is the fact that they rank 5th in defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. The Knicks are very poor offensively, and you have to wonder what they’re even playing for at the moment with hopes at a spot in the play-in tournament all but dead. Julius Randle sat last night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this team has just woven the white flag. They blew a 4Q lead against the Hawks last night, making this a prime flat spot. While I want to fade the Knicks in this spot, Charlotte’s current form defensively ultimately is what gets me to the window here.
Miami blew a gasket the other night against a shorthanded 76ers team, but this is still the best team in the Eastern Conference that has been known to bounce back in these spots. This will be a revenge game for Miami that garners their full attention, and they’ll have the benefit of not having to face off with Steph Curry. Since Curry’s injury, the Warriors are 0-3 SU. They lost at Orlando last night, and this is also a 3rd game in 4 nights spot for them. Steve Kerr is ultra conservative in these bad rest spots, and I simply don’t think the Warriors have what it takes with the Curry injury still so fresh to step up in this spot. I’m not sure if Miami covers the 7.5 pt spread, but I feel comfortable trusting them to win this game.
On the latest edition of Laying the Points, Chris goes over the Wednesday NBA slate and gives away some free premium picks! Next up he’ll have Josh C. from the BetUS NBA show to cover Friday’s slate and next week it’s the return of Kate Constable! Onto the pod!
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