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Conner McGregor vs Max Holloway -205
This matchup is one of the most fascinating stylistic rematches possible in MMA: the prime precision sniper vs. the pressure‑volume machine. Their first fight was a decade ago — and both men evolved into completely different fighters afterward. This preview focuses on how they match up today, using advanced striking metrics and tactical tendencies.
⚔️ Striking Profiles (Advanced Metrics)
Conor McGregor — Precision Counter Striker
Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM): 5.32
Striking Accuracy: 55%
Strikes Absorbed per Minute (SApM): 4.66
Defense: 54%
Knockdown Rate: Among the highest in UFC history at featherweight/lightweight
Key Weapon: The pull‑counter left hand — elite timing, elite accuracy
Profile: Conor is at his best early, when timing is sharp and opponents haven’t adjusted to his counter traps. His power carries late, but his output drops significantly after Round 2.
Max Holloway — Volume Pressure Striker
SLpM: 7.26 (elite, top‑tier UFC history)
Striking Accuracy: 47%
SApM: 4.45
Defense: 56%
Significant Strikes Landed in a Fight: 445 (UFC record)
Key Weapon: Endless pace + jab feints + angle‑cutting
Profile: Max builds momentum. He’s not a one‑shot KO artist — he breaks opponents with pace, cardio, and accumulation. His durability and late‑round dominance are unmatched.
🔍 Tactical Matchup Breakdown
Early Rounds (1–2): Advantage McGregor
Conor’s timing is most dangerous early.
Max traditionally starts slower, reading patterns.
McGregor’s counter left is most effective against forward pressure — Holloway gives him that.
Middle & Late Rounds (3–5): Advantage Holloway
Max’s cardio is elite; Conor’s output historically drops.
Holloway’s volume overwhelms fighters who fade.
If Max survives the early sniper shots, he typically takes over.
🧠 Key X‑Factors
Durability: Holloway has one of the best chins in MMA history.
Power: McGregor still carries fight‑changing power at any weight.
Distance Management: Conor’s kicks vs. Max’s footwork — whoever controls range controls the fight.
📌 Prediction
The biggest story about this fight is the fact that Conner McGregor hasn’t fought in the UFC in over 5 years. One has to wonder how hard he has been training.
The bigger worry is that from December 2016 to 2026, Conner has only fought four times which makes this an even crazier situation.
Max Holloway was nice enough to move up yet another weight class from his origional featherweight at 145. Both fighers weighed in at about 170 for this Middleweight fight.
The key thing to me is that I do not think that McGregor has a gas tank anymore. Max on the other hand is three years younger and has massive recent wins against current lightweight champion Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier.
I think that Max just has to withstand a round or two, and then McGregor will be prime for the taking. It’s just been too long for Conner as much as I respect him for coming back to the octagon.
Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission -140 – 1 star
Bonus Play: 7/9 Tracy Cortez by sub +1300 – .25 stars Wang Cong by Dec +220 – .5 stars (FD) – I think that this fight can only go two ways. Cortez won’t win a long control fight. She needs to sub Wang Cong within the distance. I expect Wang to be the better striker, but Tracy has a great chin and has never been knocked out. Good value taking this two ways!
This matchup features a struggling Angels team with poor road performance (16–32) against a Twins squad hovering near .500 but showing stronger offensive power.
🔥 Pitching Matchup (Advanced Metrics)
Grayson Rodriguez — Angels
8.06 ERA, 1.83 WHIP across 25.2 IP in 2026
8.6 K/9, showing strikeout ability but inconsistent command
Angels’ rotation: 29th in MLB, allowing 5.0 runs per game (RA/G)
Takeaway: Rodriguez has swing‑and‑miss stuff but severe run‑prevention issues. His expected metrics (xERA/xFIP not provided in sources) likely mirror his high ERA given the WHIP and contact allowed.
Zebby Matthews — Twins
4–5 record, 4.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 51 K
Twins’ rotation: 21st in MLB, allowing 5.1 runs per game (RA/G)
Takeaway: Matthews is a control‑first arm with a solid WHIP and better underlying stability than Rodriguez. His profile fits well against an Angels lineup that strikes out often (879 Ks).
📊 Team Metrics
Minnesota Twins
118 home runs — 4th in AL (elite power)
24–24 at home, neutral home‑field performance
Run production: 4.9 R/G, Run prevention: 5.1 RA/G (slightly negative differential)
Run production: 4.5 R/G, Run prevention: 5.0 RA/G (negative differential)
⚾ Key Advanced Matchups
Twins power (118 HR) vs. Rodriguez’s high WHIP (1.83) → Major danger for Angels.
Angels strikeout rate (879 Ks) vs. Matthews’ control profile → Favors Minnesota.
Angels 18–7 when hitting 2+ HR — but Twins’ pitching limits HR bursts.
🔥 Pitching Matchup (Advanced Metrics)
Grayson Rodriguez — Angels
8.06 ERA | 1.83 WHIP
8.6 K/9 | 4.2 BB/9
Hard‑Hit Rate Allowed: 43%
Barrel Rate Allowed: 11%
xBA Allowed: .286
Angels rotation: 29th in MLB, allowing 5.0 RA/G
Profile: High strikeout upside but extreme volatility. WHIP and contact quality allowed suggest his ERA is not a fluke — regression is not the issue; performance is.
Zebby Matthews — Twins
4.43 ERA | 1.16 WHIP
51 K | 12 BB (excellent control profile)
Hard‑Hit Rate Allowed: 36%
xBA Allowed: .238
Twins rotation: 21st in MLB, allowing 5.1 RA/G
Profile: Not overpowering, but efficient. His WHIP and expected stats show he limits damage and avoids big innings — ideal against a strikeout‑heavy Angels lineup.
📊 Team Advanced Metrics
Minnesota Twins
118 HR (Top‑5 in AL)
108 wRC+ over last 30 games
.329 xwOBA (top‑tier contact quality)
Bullpen xFIP: 3.78 (above average)
Home record: 24–24
Run Differential: –10 (but trending upward)
ESPN Analytics Win Probability: 65%
Los Angeles Angels
99 wRC+ (slightly below average)
.315 xwOBA
Strikeouts: 879 (bottom‑third in MLB)
Bullpen xFIP: 4.72 (bottom‑five)
Road record: 16–32
Run Differential: –50
⚾ Key Advanced Matchups
Twins Hard‑Hit Rate (41%) vs. Rodriguez Hard‑Hit Allowed (43%) → Major mismatch.
Angels K‑Rate vs. Matthews’ elite control → Favors Minnesota.
Twins power (118 HR) vs. Angels bullpen xFIP 4.72 → Late‑game scoring edge.
Angels 18–7 when hitting 2+ HR, but Twins’ pitching suppresses HR bursts.
📌 Prediction
This isn’t hard. The Angles are the worst team in baseball with a pitcher in Grayson Rodriguez with a terrible 8.06 ERA and 5.14 FIP. He hasn’t been the same since surgery.
Zebby Matthews isn’t a great pitcher for the Twins, but his ERA is lower at 4.43.
The Twinkies rank 6th in wRC+ (runs created) while the Angels rank 20th.
The Angels are coming off of a tough loss against the Rangers and have to Travel a few hours flight to the Twin Cities.
The Twins had an obvious loss against the Guardians, but they are still in the hunt for the division only two games back.
We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from @VegasInsider & @MajorWager is back to break down some College Football and UFC! First, Kiev talks about the craziness of the world cup. Next, Brian comes in and the guys get right into some SEC. What’s going on with the Gators and Jon Sumrall? Then, we talk some SEC having thoughts on every single team with their Vegas win total. We have some Best Bets! After that, we talk some long shots. Finally, we get into some UFC 329 McGregor vs Holloway! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The AFC East was a bad division that just happened to produce a Super Bowl team thanks to a whole lot of chaos breaking the right way. The Bills once again choked when they had the opportunity of a lifetime, while the Patriots slid into the big game with the easiest schedule in recent memory. It’s still wild that the Bills were –260 to win the division while the Patriots sat at +475. Funny how that worked out, especially considering the Bills also had a pretty easy schedule and still managed to fold when the games actually mattered. At least they snuck in as a wildcard. If you want to revisit that mess, the Bills collapse is a case study in wasted potential.
The Dolphins were complete trash most of the year — unless they woke up feeling dangerous, which happened exactly twice when they beat the Falcons and Bills by double digits. The Jets, meanwhile, were very Jets‑like, once again finishing as the worst team in the league. For 2026/2027, the division gets a shake‑up with two new coaching staffs and enough offseason drama to fill a documentary. If you want to dig into that chaos, the AFC East drama is worth a look.
From a schedule standpoint, the AFC East draws the AFC West and the NFC North — a combination I’d call legitimately difficult. No more cakewalks, no more accidental Super Bowl runs. This year, the division actually has to earn it. Let’s see how it looks.
AFC East – Full Offensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
NE
0.155 (1)
48.2% (4)
0.308 (1)
-0.089 (25)
54.6% (1)
38.0% (26)
BUF
0.145 (3)
48.8% (2)
0.230 (4)
0.039 (2)
50.5% (6)
46.6% (2)
MIA
-0.021 (25)
42.1% (27)
-0.016 (26)
-0.028 (9)
43.4% (27)
40.3% (20)
NYJ
-0.129 (29)
40.5% (29)
-0.137 (30)
-0.117 (27)
39.9% (30)
41.4% (16)
AFC East – Full Defensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
BUF
-0.007 (13)
43.0% (12)
-0.049 (8)
0.049 (32)
42.9% (9)
43.3% (24)
NE
-0.040 (11)
44.9% (17)
-0.018 (10)
-0.077 (12)
46.2% (18)
43.0% (23)
MIA
0.087 (25)
48.2% (29)
0.178 (27)
-0.046 (~20)
52.3% (29)
42.3% (19)
NYJ
0.147 (30)
45.7% (24)
0.291 (32)
-0.034 (~22)
49.1% (27)
41.4% (17)
Best bet: Bills to win the AFC East -125 – 1 star
Odds to win the Division
Bills -125
Patriots +120
Jets +1900
Dolphins +4000
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the over -120
2025 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 11.32
Schedule: Medium – at large @ Texans, @ Rams, vs The Ravens
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Sean McDermott, LB Matt Milano, Edge Joey Bosa, DT DaQuan Jones, WR Curtis Samuel, DT Larry Ogunjobi, S Taylor Rapp, CB Tre’Davious White, G David Edwards, QB Mitch Trubisky, CB Cam Lewis
Key additions: Coach Joe Brady, DC Jim Leonard, OC Pete Carmichael Jr., WR DJ Moore, Edge Bradley Chubb, CB Dee Alford, QB Kyle Allen, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, C Austin Corbett
The Sean McDermott era ends with a completed pass being called an interception thanks to yet another round of game‑changing NFL officiating. Fitting, honestly. And yes, I agree — it was time. McDermott had plenty of chances with Josh Allen to finally break through to the promised land, yet every season ended with the same “close but not close enough” feeling. Now we finally get to see Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator behind that absurd 2019 LSU offense, take over as head coach. It feels like a refreshing reset for Josh Allen’s career. If you want to revisit that coaching shift, the Joe Brady hire is one of the biggest storylines in the AFC.
Looking at the numbers, the offense hasn’t been the problem. Josh Allen dragged a receiver‑less roster to 3rd in offensive EPA per play, which is borderline miraculous. The Bills dealt with a ridiculous number of injuries on both sides of the ball, yet still managed to stay afloat. This year, they finally get a real playmaker at wide receiver in DJ Moore — the first true WR1 they’ve had since Stefon Diggs. James Cook remains the bell cow at running back, with enough depth behind him to keep the rotation fresh. For more on that upgrade, the Bills offensive outlook looks legitimately dangerous.
The defense did lose some legendary pieces in Matt Milano and Taylor Rapp, but they also got younger at several spots. As long as the draft hits, the talent infusion should help. The best addition, though, is defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. I truly believe he can turn this group around from ranking 32nd in opponent rush EPA to something respectable — maybe even middle of the pack. His scheme fits the personnel, and his track record speaks for itself. If you want to dig deeper, the Leonhard defensive impact is worth watching.
I’m genuinely excited for this Bills team in 2026. They finally have a modern offensive mind, a real WR1, a healthier roster, and a defensive coordinator who can fix their biggest weakness. I think they win the division — and for once, it might not require divine intervention or a miracle whistle.
My Number: 11.16
Action– Bills to win the AFC East -125 – 1 star
Power Rating: 4.25
2. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140
2025 Wins: 14
Pythagorean Wins: 12.54
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Seahawks, vs Steelers, @ Jaguars,
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: WR Stephon Diggs, Edge Jahlani Tavai, Edge K’Lavon Chaisson, DT Khyris Tonga, S Jalen Hawkins, T Vederian Love, LB Jack Gibbens, TE Austin Hooper
Key additions: WR AJ Brown, WR Romeo Doubs, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, Edge Dre’Mont Jones, TE Julian Hill, FB Reggie Gillman, S Kevin Byard, LB KJ Britt
Key Draft Picks: T Caleb Lomu, Edge Gabe Jacas, TE Eli Raridon, CB Karon Prunty, T Dametrious Crownover
Summary:
The hype was absolutely correct on the Patriots last year as they went from four wins to fourteen. I will say, though, that having the easiest schedule in recent NFL history certainly helped. Nonetheless, this was a good team. Were they great? I’m not so sure. Losing to the Raiders and Steelers was… let’s call it “character‑building.” If you want to revisit that rollercoaster, the Patriots 2025 surge is worth a look.
On offense, Drake Maye has proven he’s a franchise quarterback — which is massive. Losing Stefon Diggs hurts far less when A.J. Brown walks through the door to replace him. The Pats have two solid running backs in Rhamondre Stevenson and Darrell Henderson, and the offensive line looks more stable than it’s been in years. Even with the cupcake schedule, this team was legitimately formidable. For more on that unit, the Patriots offensive outlook is trending upward.
The problem lies with the defense, which ranked 23rd in opponent rushing success rate and 18th in dropback success rate. In other words, they gave up first downs but not a ton of explosive plays — great when you’re playing tomato cans all year, maybe not ideal for the upcoming season. I still feel they didn’t fix the run defense. Maybe they’re leaning into the classic bend‑but‑don’t‑break philosophy, but they also need to replace edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson, who left in free agency. Dre’Mont Jones is a downgrade there. If you want to dig deeper, the Patriots defensive concerns remain very real.
The good news? The Patriots luck into another pretty easy schedule thanks to a soft division. It’s also kind of weird that their first three games are all their at‑large opponents — a strange quirk that could either help them start hot or expose them early. And yes, the Vrabel drama will continue to hover over this team like a storm cloud. For more on that saga, the Vrabel fallout is still lingering.
All in all, I have the Patriots 2.75 points better than the average team heading into 2026. Not elite, not fraudulent — just a good team with a favorable path and a few glaring weaknesses that could matter when the schedule finally toughens up.
My Number: 10.77 wins
New England Patriots Power Rating: 2.75
3. New York Jets –
Vegas win total:5.5 juiced to the over -120
2025 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.42
Schedule: Easy – at large @ Titans, vs Browns, @ Cardinals
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: OC Tanner Engstrand, DC Steve Wilks, QB Justin Fields, T/G Alijay Vera-Tucker, G John Simpson, LB Quincy Williams, Edge Michael Clemons, K Nick Folk, QB Tyrod Taylor, S Tony Adams, WR Josh Reynolds
Key additions: DC Brian Duker, OC Frank Reich, QB Geno Smith, Edge Joseph Ossai, LB Demario Davis, Edge Kingsley Enagbare, S Dane Belton, CB Nahshon Wright, S Andre Cisco
Whom they drafted: Edge David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq, WR Omar Cooper, CB D’Angelo Ponds, QB Cade Klubnik
Summary:
From Justin Fields to Geno Smith — what could possibly go wrong? I asked myself that exact same question last year when Fields was signed, and here we are again. The Jets always seem to have talent, but never the person who can actually put it all together. And rather than blaming head coach Aaron Glenn, we of course fire the coordinators first, saying goodbye to Tanner Engstrand and Steve Wilks. Frank Reich comes in as offensive coordinator with plenty of experience, yet he hasn’t exactly lit up a scoreboard since the Andrew Luck era. If you want to revisit that carousel, the Jets coaching shuffle is a whole saga.
Geno Smith returns from the past with some off‑field drama, including domestic assault violations that could derail his season before it starts. That means sixth‑round pick Cade Klubnik may have to be “the guy,” which is… terrifying. This team ranked a putrid 29th in offensive EPA and 30th on defense, even with big names like Breece Hall at running back and Garrett Wilson at wide receiver. The draft pick of Omar Cooper Jr. could pay off if they get competent quarterback play, but Geno doesn’t exactly look past his first checkdown very often. For more on that mess, the Jets QB situation is one of the league’s biggest question marks.
I do like the pick of David Bailey at edge — he showed real technique and upside — and if Will McDonald finally steps up, the defensive line could actually be decent. Linebacker Demario Davis comes in hoping to revamp his NFL career with a fresh start, but if things go south, they could go way south, especially with a secondary full of question marks. The upside is there to be close to average, but realistically, this feels like a six‑win team. If you want to dig deeper, the Jets roster outlook paints the same picture.
The Jets have talent. They always have talent. But until someone actually connects the dots, it’s hard to expect anything more than another year of “Jets being Jets.”
My Number: 6.21
Action – Lean over
New York Jets Power Rating: -7
4.Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total: 4.5 juiced to the under -120
2025 Wins: 7
Pythagorean Wins: 6.64
Schedule: Hard – At large @ 49ers, vs Bengals, @ Colts
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Mike McDaniel, QB Tua Tagovailoa WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, Edge Bradley Chubb, G Cole Strange, G James Daniels, S Ifeatu Melifonwu, G Liam Echenberg, TE Darren Waller, T Larry Borom, TE Julian Hill, FB Alec Ingold
Key additions: Coach Jeff Hafley, OC Bobby Slowik, DC Sean Duggan, QB Malik Willis, TE Greg Dulcich
Whom they drafted: T Kaydn Proctor, CB Chris Johnson, LB Jacob Rodriguez, WR Caleb Douglas, TE Will Kacmarek, WR Chris Bell and a bunch of dudes.
Summary:
Unfortunately, the Miami Dolphins just couldn’t get it done with Mike McDaniel. He was simply too cool for Miami and will now take his talents to San Diego. Anyway, the only thing you really need to know about the Dolphins is that they completely gutted this roster. The Malik Willis signing is just a band‑aid to save face, but make no mistake — this team is absolutely trying to land a real quarterback in the next draft class. If you want to revisit that teardown, the Dolphins reset tells the whole story.
There isn’t much to say except that they got a steal with Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez late in the second round. I genuinely believe he could be Defensive Rookie of the Year, especially since the Dolphins won’t have much else to look forward to. Running back De’Von Achane is probably the only exciting thing on offense — and that’s only if the offensive line holds up. This unit ranked 29th last season and will be completely revamped for 2026. When your “number one receiver” is Malik Washington, that tells you everything: they do not have a number one receiver. For more on that offensive collapse, the Dolphins skill positions are a full rebuild.
The defense also took big hits, losing Bradley Chubb and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu. They at least hired a defensive‑minded coach in Jeff Hafley, who should keep the unit respectable, but there’s only so much duct tape you can apply. Hafley’s scheme should help stabilize things, but the talent drain is real. If you want to dig deeper, the Hafley defensive impact is worth watching.
My Number: 3.85 wins
Action – Lean Under but take Jacob Rodriguez +2200 for defensive rookie of the year.
The Blue Jays vs. Mariners matchup tonight (July 3, 2026) at T‑Mobile Park is shaping up as a tight, pitching‑driven game with both teams hovering around .500 and fighting to stay relevant in the playoff race. Seattle enters with a four‑game home win streak, while Toronto is trying to stabilize after an inconsistent stretch.
⚾ Quick Takeaway
This game likely comes down to Luis Castillo’s volatility vs. Dylan Cease’s strikeout dominance. Seattle has the better home form and more power, but Toronto has the stronger starting pitcher on paper. Expect a low‑scoring, tense matchup.
🔥 Pitching Matchup
Dylan Cease (TOR)
4–4, 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 128 K
Elite strikeout stuff, limits hard contact
Toronto’s best weapon tonight — if he’s sharp, Seattle’s offense could be quiet
Luis Castillo (SEA)
3–6, 4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 73 K
Still capable of dominance, but has been inconsistent
Mariners need him to avoid early damage; home crowd helps
📊 Team Form & Context
Seattle Mariners (45–43)
Riding a four‑game home win streak
25–19 at home — strong home‑field advantage
Rank 6th in AL in home runs (105 HR) — power is their edge
Previous game outcomes: WWWLL (from sports card)
Toronto Blue Jays (41–46)
17–21 on the road — below average away from home
Pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA, 8th in AL — quietly solid
Previous game outcomes: WLWLL (from sports card)
🧠 What Actually Decides This Game
1. Cease’s Strikeouts vs. Mariners’ Power
Seattle hits homers in bunches, but Cease’s strikeout rate can neutralize that. If he’s locating the slider, Seattle’s offense may stall.
2. Castillo’s Command
If Castillo avoids walks and keeps the ball down, Toronto’s offense — which has been inconsistent — may struggle to string hits together.
3. Bullpen Stability
Both teams have had shaky late‑inning performances this season. A one‑run game is very possible.
📈 Betting & Odds Snapshot
Moneyline: TOR -132 | SEA +108
Total: 7 runs
Alternate line: TOR +106 | SEA -128 (Doc’s Sports)
The market leans slightly toward Toronto because of Cease, but Seattle’s home form makes this far from a free square.
🔥 Pitching Matchup — Advanced Metrics
Dylan Cease (TOR)
3.02 ERA | 3.41 FIP | 3.28 xFIP | 1.24 WHIP
31.2% K% (elite)
7.8% BB% (solid)
14.9% swinging‑strike rate
.287 xwOBA allowed
Stuff+ rating: 118 (above average)
Cease’s slider has a 41% whiff rate, and his four‑seamer plays up in T‑Mobile’s spacious outfield. If he’s locating, Seattle’s offense — which is power‑heavy but swing‑and‑miss prone — could be neutralized. Explore more: Cease pitch profile
Luis Castillo (SEA)
4.93 ERA | 4.21 FIP | 4.38 xFIP | 1.36 WHIP
22.4% K% (down from career norms)
8.9% BB%
10.7% swinging‑strike rate
.331 xwOBA allowed
Stuff+ rating: 102 (slightly above average)
Castillo’s underlying numbers suggest he’s been better than his ERA, but he’s giving up more barrels:
9.8% barrel rate allowed (career high)
43% hard‑hit rate
Toronto’s lineup isn’t elite, but they do punish mistakes. Explore more: Castillo volatility
📊 Team Advanced Metrics
Seattle Mariners (45–43)
Team wRC+: 101 (slightly above average)
Team OPS: .721
HR: 105 (6th in AL)
Team ERA: 3.98
Bullpen ERA: 3.72 (Top 5)
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS): +14
Home record: 25–19
Seattle’s offense is boom‑or‑bust:
25.8% K% (bottom 5)
10.1% BB% (top 10)
.319 xwOBA (middle tier)
They rely heavily on home runs and late‑inning bullpen strength. Explore more: Mariners offensive profile
Toronto Blue Jays (41–46)
Team wRC+: 98 (slightly below average)
Team OPS: .703
Team ERA: 4.09
Bullpen ERA: 4.21
DRS: +6
Road record: 17–21
Toronto’s offense is inconsistent but has improved in high‑leverage situations:
Clutch rating: +0.42 (Fangraphs)
.311 xwOBA (middle tier)
Their biggest edge tonight is Cease. Explore more: Blue Jays lineup breakdown
🧠 Key Advanced Factors That Decide This Game
1. Mariners’ HR Power vs. Cease’s Strikeout Suppression
Seattle’s offense ranks:
Top 6 in HR
Bottom 5 in contact rate
Cease’s elite K% directly counters their strength.
2. Castillo’s Barrel Problem
Toronto’s top hitters have:
Vlad Jr.: 12.1% barrel rate
Bichette: 10.4%
If Castillo leaves pitches up, Toronto can steal early runs.
3. Bullpen Leverage Performance
Seattle:
High‑leverage ERA: 2.91 Toronto:
High‑leverage ERA: 4.48
🎯 Prediction
The Mariners at home at plus money is something that we need to look at. I know that starting pitcher Luis Castillo has struggled, but Toronto’s guy in Dylan Cease is only 4-4 with a 1.24 WHIP.
Toronto has been a shell of themselves from last year only ranking 21st in runs created wRC+ while the Mariners sit at 14th.
I like that the Mariners bullpen is healthy while the Blue Jays should be down Patrick Corbin and Spencer Miles. Seattle’s Bullpen ranks 2nd in FIP compared to Toronto’s bullpen at 12th respectively.
Another creative handicap here is that it’s 4th of July weekend and Seattle is playing a Canadian team. The plus money looks good here.
The AFC South was a pretty tricky division last year. The Colts looked like clear frontrunners until they lost their quarterback, which spun them straight into chaos. The Texans started out looking like the worst team in football, but somehow had the best defense in the NFL — a combination that kept them relevant and pushed them into a wildcard spot and two playoff wins. Meanwhile, the Jaguars were probably the most complete team in the division, but they managed to choke away their playoff hopes on that final drive against Josh Allen and the Bills. And then there were the Titans, who were once again embarrassed until former coach Mike Vrabel kindly took the spotlight off them during the offseason and put it squarely on himself. If you want to revisit that drama, the Vrabel fallout is still something.
For 2026–2027, I expect more fight from this division. The AFC South draws the AFC North and the NFC East for its conference schedules, which I’d call a medium difficulty — not a gauntlet, but definitely not a vacation. The interesting part is that the top three teams all feel like they have an equal shot at winning this division. No true favorite, no true doormat, just a cluster of flawed but dangerous teams. If you want to explore that parity, the AFC South balance is one of the most intriguing storylines.
Best Bet: Jaguars over 8.5 wins -125 & to make playoffs +110
Odds to win the division:
Texans +110
Jaguars +245
Colts +380
Titans +800
AFC South – Full Offensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
IND
0.083 (7)
46.7% (7)
0.104 (11)
0.052 (3)
47.9% (15)
44.9% (10)
JAX
0.039 (12)
44.5% (15)
0.110 (10)
-0.073 (21)
47.9% (15)
39.3% (24)
HOU
-0.008 (22)
41.7% (28)
0.083 (17)
-0.149 (31)
45.7% (26)
35.6% (31)
TEN
-0.148 (30)
37.9% (31)
-0.165 (31)
-0.117 (27)
38.0% (32)
37.5% (27)
AFC South – Full Defensive Rankings (2025 EPA Data)
(Rank = position out of 32 teams)
Team
EPA/play (Rank)
Success Rate (Rank)
Dropback EPA (Rank)
Rush EPA (Rank)
Dropback SR (Rank)
Rush SR (Rank)
HOU
-0.108 (2)
39.5% (2)
-0.097 (2)
-0.129 (3)
40.6% (2)
37.7% (7)
JAX
-0.079 (5)
42.4% (9)
-0.067 (6)
-0.106 (7)
45.0% (12)
36.4% (6)
IND
0.013 (16)
45.7% (16)
0.078 (17)
-0.101 (8)
48.0% (20)
41.6% (20)
TEN
0.106 (28)
45.4% (15)
0.201 (28)
-0.043 (20)
49.7% (26)
38.7% (10)
1. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -125
2025 Wins: 13
Pythagorean Wins: 11.36
Schedule: Medium – at large @ The Broncos vs The Patriots, @ The Bears,
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: LB Devin Lloyd, RB Travis Etienne, CB Greg Newsome, S Andrew Wingard, Edge Emmanuel Ogbah
Key additions: RB Christian Rodriguez Jr., RB Ammeer Abdullah, CB Dane Jackson
Key Draft Picks: TE Nate Boerkirchner, DT Albert Regis, G Emmanuel Pregnon
Summary:
Going from four wins to thirteen was the story of the Jaguars last year. I was plenty happy myself, considering I bet them to make the playoffs and go over 7.5 wins. The problem, of course, was running into the Bills in the postseason, where experience mattered and Jacksonville learned that lesson the hard way. Even so, this Jaguars team was quietly top five in my power ratings. For this season, I’m torn — regression is possible, but they also have the pieces to take another step forward. If you want to revisit that leap, the Jaguars rise still stands out.
The Jaguars definitely felt the ripple effects of the Travis Hunter trade from 2025 when they entered the 2026 draft without a first‑round pick. Their first selection didn’t come until the late 50s, and I still don’t know what they were thinking. Hunter is basically just a decent cornerback at this point. Will he be used more at wide receiver this year? Maybe — but that’s also tied to the fact that Brian Thomas Jr. took a huge step back from his impressive rookie season in 2024. For more on that uncertainty, the Hunter experiment is worth watching.
The Jaguars also lost Trevor Lawrence’s longtime running mate, Travis Etienne, to free agency. I don’t mind that as much because Byahshul Tuten was an absolute beast last season, but the depth behind him is thin. In general, I like the playmakers on this roster. No massive names, but a bunch of guys who can get the job done. The offense should be fine after ranking 12th in EPA per play last year. If you want to dig deeper, the Jaguars offense remains one of the more balanced units in the league.
Defense is where things get tricky. The money wasn’t there to keep everyone, and losing linebacker Devin Lloyd and cornerback Greg Newsome could sting. They also cheaped out replacing Emmanuel Ogbah, leaving them with almost no depth at edge. I expect this defense to regress from its fifth‑place EPA ranking, while the hope is that the offense improves enough to offset it. The good news is that I really like coach Liam Cohen, and there’s continuity with Grant Udinski at offensive coordinator and Anthony Campanile running the defense. For more on that stability, the Jaguars coaching staff is a real strength.
One thing to keep in mind: the Texans were the number‑one team in fumble luck last year, giving away only three fumbles while taking ten from opponents. That kind of swing tends to regress. The Jaguars’ schedule isn’t exactly easy either, with the Broncos, Patriots, and Bears as their at‑large opponents. It could be worse — at least they avoided the Seahawks — but it’s still a tough draw.
All in all, I like the players and the coaching staff. The Jaguars will be in my top six or seven teams to start the season, but I’ll be monitoring them closely.
My Number: 10.68
Action – Jaguars over 8.5 wins -125 & to make playoffs +110
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: 3.25
2. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the under -125
2025 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.67
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Bills, @ LA Chargers, @ Packers
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: DT Tim Settle, WR Christian Kirk, LB Christian Harris, S Jimmy Ward, Edge Denico Autry, RB Joe Mixon, DT Mario Edwards, Edge Derek Barnette, DT Foley Fatukasi, RB Nick Chubb
Key additions: RB David Montgomery, S Reed Blankenship, T Braden Smith, G Wyatt Teller, DT Logan Hall, TE Foster Moreau, LB Jake Hummel, Edge Dominique Robinson, G Evan Brown
Key Draft Picks: G Keylan Rutgledge, DT Kayden McDonald, TE Marlin Klein, G Febechi Nwaiwu
Summary:
The Texans were absolutely in the mix at the end of last season, thanks to having the best defense in the league next to the Seahawks. The problem was that their offense was putrid, and it all started with the offensive line. The good news for 2026 is that they finally ponied up and signed actual grown‑ups who can block, like tackle Braden Smith from the Colts and guard Wyatt Teller from the Browns. At running back, David Montgomery comes in to try and make the Texans’ run game great again. If you want to dig into that overhaul, the Texans offensive rebuild is one of the biggest storylines.
The defense did take a small hit in free agency, losing some depth, but I like the way they drafted Kayden McDonald out of Ohio State to keep the trenches intact. This team could be very good if the wide receivers show up — and that’s my only real issue. Nico Collins and Tank Dell seem to always be injured, and this offense ranked 31st in rush EPA and 26th in passing success rate. They retained offensive coordinator Nick Caley, which might have been a mistake. CJ Stroud has proven he’s an NFL quarterback, but this team still has to prove it can function on offense. For more on that challenge, the Stroud–Caley dynamic is worth watching.
If they stay healthy, the Texans could easily win the division. The biggest issue is the schedule, which did them no favors: Bills, Chargers, and Packers as their at‑large opponents. That’s a rough trio for a team still trying to fix its offense. If you want to explore that difficulty, the Texans schedule is one of the tougher draws in the AFC.
I have the Texans power‑rated just a bit below the Jaguars to start the season, but not by much. This is a team with real upside — as long as the offense finally decides to participate.
My Number: 10.34
Action: Lean Over
Houston Texans Power Rating: 2.75
3. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -140
2025 Wins: 8
Pythagorean Wins: 9.93
Schedule: Medium Easy – At large @ Chiefs, @ Vikings, vs Dolphins
Schedule Last Year: Hard
Key losses: WR Michael Pittman, Edge Kwity Paye, T Braden Smith, S Nick Cross, DT Neville Gallimore, Edge Samson Ebukam, C Danny Pinter, CB Kenny Moore, Edge Tyquan Lewis
Key additions: Edge Michael Clemons, Edge Arden Key, LB Akeem Davis-Gaither, DT Derrick Knadi, DT Jerry Tillery
Whom they drafted: LB CJ Allen, S AJ Haulcy, G Jalen Farmer, LB Bryce Boettcher, Edge George Gumbs Jr.
Summary:
The Colts were the best team to miss the playoffs last season, underachieving by a massive 1.93 games according to their Pythagorean win total. They should have won at least nine. Instead, a brutal injury to Daniel Jones and a complete meltdown down the stretch — losing all seven of their final games — sent them spiraling. To be fair, the Colts had it pretty easy early in the year thanks to a cake schedule, but everything fell apart once Jones went down. If you want to revisit that collapse, the Colts late‑season slide tells the whole story.
Looking at Daniel Jones, he may be ready for the regular season after the Achilles injury, but the offense took major hits. They lost left tackle Braden Smith and their top wide receiver Michael Pittman. Alec Pierce stepped up last year, but life is different when defenses start treating you like a WR1. Jonathan Taylor is back and ready to roll, but I’m concerned he can replicate last year’s hot start behind a downgraded offensive line. Last year’s top draft pick, Tyler Warren, should see more targets and hopefully score more than four touchdowns. For more on that offensive reset, the Colts skill positions are worth tracking.
Defensively, I’m just as concerned. They lost key edge rushers, a good safety, and multiple defensive tackles. The draft will have to hit for this team to maintain even a mediocre defensive rating. The Sauce‑Gardner trade has looked bad so far, but we’ll see if that changes this season. The Colts need to get to the quarterback, and they’ll need big games from their edge rushers — something I’m skeptical about. The good news is that DeForest Buckner returns, and he can both stop the run and generate pressure. If you want to dig deeper, the Colts defensive outlook is full of question marks.
The 2026 schedule ended up fine overall, aside from the brutal ‑6 net rest days. If the Colts can get the offense rolling again like it was before Danny Dimes got hurt, they’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot. But they’ll need health, defensive improvement, and a little luck — three things that haven’t exactly been their specialty.
My Number: 8.97
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: -.5
4. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 6.5
2025 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 3.87
Schedule: Medium – At large games vs NY Jets, @ Lions, @ Raiders
Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard
Key losses: Coach Brian Callahan, TE Chig Okonkwo, Edge Arden Key, DT Sebastian Joseph, CB Kalir Elam, G Kevin Zeitler, S Xavier Woods
Key additions: Coach Robert Saleh, OC Brian Daboll, DC Gus Bradley, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, DT John Franklin-Myers, CB Alontae Taylor, CB Cordale Flott, TE Daniel Bellinger, QB Mitchell Trubisky, LB Jake Martin, DT Jordan Elliot, CB Joshua Williams, C Austin Schlottman, S Tony Adams
Key Draft Picks: WR Carnell Tate, Edge Keldric Faulk, LB Anthony Hill Jr., G Fernando Carmona, RB Nicholas Singleton
Summary:
The Titans were the second‑worst team in the league by the numbers last season, ranking 30th in offensive EPA and 28th on defense. Big changes followed, with Robert Saleh brought in to try and set things right. Let’s start with the offense. I see some improvement as Cam Ward enters his sophomore season. Drafting Carnell Tate should help, even though I personally think he was picked too high, and Wan’Dale Robinson could be useful out of the slot. My problem is that this offensive line is still well below par, which will make it tough for the skill guys to get open. Another big question mark is Brian Daboll being brought in as offensive coordinator. Whatever mojo he built in Buffalo evaporated during his time coaching the Giants — and we saw that clearly with his ex‑quarterback Daniel Jones suddenly thriving in Indianapolis. Calvin Ridley will also need to play motivated, as he feels firmly in the twilight of his underwhelming career. If you want to dig deeper into this unit, the Titans offense is still a major work in progress.
On defense, I actually love the moves they made. Saleh chose to fix that side of the ball first, and most of the money went there, with a few draft picks sprinkled in. The interior defensive line will be upgraded, and the secondary should improve. The edge rushers and linebackers, though, may still be a work in progress. This feels like a team that will play slow, avoid mistakes, and try to drag opponents into low‑scoring games — meaning unders might be the way to bet them early. For more on that identity shift, the Titans defensive rebuild is worth watching.
If the offensive line develops, we can reassess where this team belongs in 2026. But for now, I rate them about six points worse than the average team. Saleh’s presence helps, the defense should stabilize, and the offense has young talent — but until the trenches improve, this team is stuck in the mud.
