CFP quarterfinals

(all times ET)

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic – No 10 Miami  vs. No. 2 Ohio State -9.5 O/U 42.5
Location:  AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Time:  7:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated

Home:  None

Net yards Per Play:  Ohio State +1.05

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Ohio State is the number 1 team in offensive success rate and 4th in defensive EPA.   They are the best team in the nation on both sides of the ball.   Ohio State has the dudes to run with Malachi Tony, CJ Daniels and Keelan Marion.  Both schedule strength ranks about the same.   Ohio State has the number 2 red zone defense in the nation.

Verdict:  My number is Ohio State -7.5, but I would be more inclined to lay the -9.5 in thinking that Miami will not score touchdowns often if at all.   Right now it’s a lean to Ohio State.

Play:  Lean Ohio State -9.5

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl – No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech +1.5 O/U 52.5
Location:  Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time:  Noon
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated.

Home:  None

Net Yards Per Play:  Oregon +.45

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Nothing is more key than the strength of schedule disparity with Oregon’s ranking 17th and Texas Tech’s ranking 68th.  I will say that this is not Texas Tech’s fault as they could only play the teams that were in front of them.   If there is a weakness on the Red Raiders, it’s that they do not run the ball that well ranking 46th in rush EPA.   That would be where they need to attack Oregon as the Ducks rank 48th in opponent rush EPA and 9th in opponent pass EPA.    

Verdict:   I have both of these teams power rated pretty equally, but the explosiveness of Oregon’s offense is where I give them the edge.   This game should be won in the trenches where both teams are quite solid with the offensive line favoring Oregon and the defensive line favoring Texas Tech.   Oregon has the championship Pedigree as they been here before, while Texas Tech doesn’t.  This is the most important factor in this handicap.  The Ducks win a close one 27-24.

Play:  Oregon PK -125 – 2 stars

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential – No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana -6.5 O/U 48.5
Location:  Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Time;  4 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

All Motivated:

Home:  None

Net Yards Per Play:  Indiana +1.67

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   Alabama has the harder strength of schedule ranking 3rd to Indiana’s ranking 42nd, but this strength of schedule advantage doesn’t even come close to the fact that Indiana has a massive advantage in stats here.   Indiana is top 5th in both offensive and defensive success rates, while Alabama is 50th in offensive success rate and they can’t run the ball all that well.

Verdict:   Even though my number has Indiana an 8 point favorite here, I just do not trust them in this spot for two reasons.  For one, they do not have the championship pedigree that Alabama has, and number two, they are in somewhat of a let down spot after the Big 10 championship.    I actually kinda like the under as both of these teams rank towards the bottom in pace.

Play:  Strong lean under 48.5

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl – No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia -6.5 or 7 – O/U 55.5
Location:  Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Time:  8 p.m.
TV Network:   ESPN

All Motivated:

Home:  None

Net Yards Per Play:   Ole Miss +.51

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:   Georgia has the harder schedule ranking 13th to Ole Miss at 41st, but this line is pretty big.   The Rebels rank 12th in offensive EPA while the Bulldogs rank 25th.   Georgia ranks 29th in defensive EPA to Ole Miss ranking 39th.  Advantage Georgia.   I also give the coaching advantage to Georgia, but they do not run the ball all that well only ranking 48th in rush EPA to Ole Miss ranking 104th in opponent rush EPA.  That is where Georgia must capitalize.

Verdict:   We saw this game once already where Georgia barely covered this game at home in Athens where the yellow handkerchiefs fly freely like Reindeer, but I think that Ole Miss has a huge chip on their shoulder.   How do you not love what Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has become.   They were really the most impressive team to me last week during the playoffs.   They want to prove that they can do this without Lane and they seem to like Pete Golding a heck of a lot.  This is too many points as I have Georgia just two points better.

Ole Miss +7 – 2 stars

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College Bowls Dec 31st – Jan 2nd

(all times ET)

ReliaQuest Bowl – Iowa vs. Vanderbilt -5.5 O/U 47.5
Location:  Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Time:  Noon
TV Network:  ESPN

Iowa’s Motivation:  High – Kirk Ferentz loves to win bowl games.

Vanderbilt’s Motivation:  Medium High – I think that this team knew that their conference will continue to treat them like a red-headed step child.  

Home:  None

Iowa Potential Opt-Outs

• DE Max Llewellyn
• DT Aaron Graves
• C Logan Jones
• RG Kade Pieper
• RT Gennings Dunker
• S Xavier Nwankpa
• CB TJ Hall

Head coach Kirk Ferentz said he expects the roster to be intact for the bowl game.

Iowa Injuries

• CB TJ Hall (missed final two games)
• RB Xavier Williams (missed finale; 141 snaps)

Vanderbilt Potential Opt-Outs

• TE Eli Stowers
• QB Diego Pavia (can’t imagine he doesn’t play)

Vanderbilt Injuries

• None

Net Yards Per Play:  Vanderbilt +1.42

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Both teams have about the same strength of schedule with both ranking in the top 24.   The Commodores have a great offense ranking number 1 in EPA and number 4 in success rate.   Iowa has the solid defense ranking 4th in EPA and 40th in success rate.

Verdict:   This might be the best bowl game that’s not the playoffs.  I am really excited for this game and am very glad there are no opt outs thus far.   The interesting thing to me here is that in all of Iowa’s losses, not one of them was by more than five points.  This includes games against USC, Oregon and Indiana.   Vanderbilt had a very favorable SEC schedule with their only win against number 25 Missouri.   Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has a very favorable bowl ATS record at 12-8-1.   I see an Iowa type ugly it up game where they will have a chance to win it at the end.

Play:  Iowa +5.5 – 2 stars

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl – Arizona State vs. Duke -2.5 O/U 49.5
Location:  Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
Time:  2 p.m.
TV Network:  CBS

Arizona State’s Motivation:  Medium High – Kenny Dillingham is a fantastic motivator.

Duke’s Motivation:  High – They will want to prove that they should have been in the playoffs.

Home:   Even at 430 miles away, this is a home game for the Sun Devils as the drive isn’t too bad.  I’ve done it.  Give them 2 points.

Arizona State Transfer Portal

• QB Sam Leavitt (also injured)
• LT Josh Atkins (792 snaps)
• CB Javan Robinson (659 snaps)
• LB Tate Romney (101 snaps)

Kenny Dillingham allows players in the portal to play in bowl if they choose to do so. He said Jeff Sims would start at QB but freshman Cam Dyer will get some reps in the game.

Arizona State Opt-Outs

• WR Jordyn Tyson
• DB Xavion Alford (injured W2)
• CB Keith Abney II
• RB Raleek Brown
• RT Max Iheanachor
• LB Keyshaun Elliott

Arizona State Potential Opt-Outs

• DT C.J. Fite (will return in 2026; expected to play)
• DE Prince Dorbah
• RG Kyle Scott
• LB Keyshaun Elliott
• S Myles Rowser (declared for NFL Draft but dressed for practice)
• DL Justin Wodtly declared for the NFL draft but said he’d still play in bowl

Arizona State Injuries

• CB Rodney Bimage Jr. (hasn’t played since Week 12; 177 snaps)
• OL Ben Coleman (lost for year in Week 7)
• DE Clayton Smith (recent knee surgery, but could be back)

Duke Opt-Outs

• Starting RT Brian Parker II
• CB Chandler Rivers
• DE Vincent Anthony Jr.

Duke Injuries

• CB Kimari Robinson (missed ACC title game)
• DE Bryce Davis (missed ACC title game; 155 snaps)

Net Yards Per Play:  Arizona State +.56

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Duke has the better offense ranking 24th in EPA to Arizona State’s defense ranking 37th in EPA.   Both teams are bad at the opposite sides of the ball.   The Problem with ASU, is that they lost their starting quarterback Seam Leavitt and best receiver Jordan Tyson to injury, and either way, both are opting out of this game.  

Verdict:  The path to victory for ASU is to simply run the football, but I am not sure that they can accomplish this well without their starting running back.   Army Transfer Kanye Udoh will get the bulk of the carries.  It feels kind of like Kenny Dillingham is treating this like an exhibition game as he is going to give his freshman quaterback some reps.   The amount of opt-outs thickens for the Sun Devils, and I think taking Duke at -3 or below is the best bet.

Duke -2.5 – 2 stars

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Cheez-It Citrus Bowl – Michigan vs. Texas -7.5 O/U 45.5
Location:  Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Time:  3 p.m.
TV Network:  ABC

Michigan’s Motivation:  High – They are keeping their coaches and the young quarterback will want to beat an SEC team.

Texas’s Motivation:  Medium – They felt they deserved the playoffs, but Arch was more starch this year.

Home:  None

Michigan Opt-Outs

• EDGE Derrick Moore

Michigan Potential Opt-Outs

• QB Bryce Underwood 
• CB Jyaire Hill
• S Rod Moore (only played in two games)
• CB Zeke Berry
• LB Jaishawn Barham
• DT Rayshaun Benny
• RB Justice Haynes
• EDGE TJ Guy
• TE Marlin Klein (said he will play)
• LB Jimmy Rolder
• S Brandyn Hillman

Michigan Injuries

• LB Ernest Hausmann (missed final two games)
• S Mason Curtis (hurt vs. Ohio State)
• LT Evan Link (last played in Week 8)
• RB Justice Haynes (last played in Week 9; assume he’s out)
• RB Jordan Marshall (played only 16 snaps vs. Ohio State)
• WR Semaj Morgan (missed final two games)
• Backup QB Mikey Keene (won’t be available for bowl)

Michigan Coaching Changes

Michigan has fired head coach Sherrone Moore. Former Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi has been named the interim head coach. 

Offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey also left Michigan to become the offensive coordinator at Missouri. Co-offensive coordinator and tight ends coach Steve Casula will be the interim OC for the Citrus Bowl.

Texas Transfer Portal

• RB CJ Baxter (161 snaps)
• RB Jerrick Gibson (74 snaps)
• OL Connor Stroh (310 snaps)
• LB Liona Lefau (462 snaps)

Texas Opt-Outs

• S Michael Taaffe (600 snaps)
• CB Malik Muhammad (593 snaps)
• CB Jaylon Guilbeau (548 snaps)
• LB Anthony Hill Jr. (declared for NFL Draft; missed final two games due to injury; 563 snaps)
• EDGE Trey Moore (486 snaps)
• EDGE Ethan Burke (378 snaps)
• WR DeAndre Moore (not expected back in 2026)

Texas will be without six (potentially seven) defensive starters.

Texas Potential Opt-Outs

• DT Cole Brevard
• RG DJ Campbell
• RB Quintrevion Wisner
• LT Trevor Goosby

Texas Coaching Changes

Texas fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and hired Will Muschamp to be the new DC.

Net Yards Per Play:  Michigan +.61

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Another offense vs Defense type game as Michigan ranks 40th in offensive EPA to Texas ranking 26th on defensive EPA.  Michigan may have the advantage though as their defense is solid while Texas had a terrible offense ranking 102nd in success rate.  Texas had the harder strength of schedule ranking 16th to Michigan’s ranking 27th.

Verdict:  This should be called the entitled bowl.  Notice a big difference between of opt outs between this game and the Reliaquest bowl between Iowa and Vanderbilt.   This number is much too big if Bryce Underwood plays for Michigan.  I have to wait though and see who all stays in.

Play:  Strong lean Michigan +7.5

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl – Nebraska vs. Utah -14 O/U 50.5
Location:  Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
Time;  3:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Nebraska’s Motivation:  Medium – May be more fun to party out in Vegas than play this game.

Utah’s Motivation:  Medium High – I think they show up against the big 10 even though they missed the playoffs.

Home:  None

Nebraska Transfer Portal

• Starting QB Dylan Raiola (out for year due to injury)
• DB Malcolm Hartzog (74 snaps)
• QB Marcos Davila

Nebraska Opt-Outs

• RB Emmett Johnson (declared for NFL Draft)
• RG Rocco Spindler (NFL/Finger)

Nebraska Potential Opt-Outs

• S DeShon Singleton (headed to Senior Bowl; on bowl depth chart)
• LG Henry Lutovsky (on bowl depth chart)
• EDGE Dasan McCullough (350 snaps; declared for draft; not on depth chart)

Rhule said he doesn’t expect any other starters to opt out.

Nebraska Injuries

• QB TJ Lateef (hamstring)
• OT Gunnar Gottula (last played in Week 8; out for year)
• OT Teddy Prochazka (last played in Week 7; out for year)

Update: Rhule said Lateef is now a full-go.

Nebraska Coaching Changes

Nebraska fired DC Jon Butler earlier this month and hired the San Diego State DC to replace him. Phil Snow will serve as the interim. Rhule also recently fired both the OL and DL coaches.

Utah Opt-Outs

• LT Caleb Lomu (823 snaps)
• RT Spencer Fano (822 snaps)
• DE Logan Fano (516 snaps)

Utah Potential Opt-Outs

• QB Devon Dampier (said he’d play)
• LB Lander Barton (said he’d play)
• S Tao Johnson
• CB Smith Snowden

Utah Injuries

• DE John Henry Daley (out for year; one of best in the country)
• WR Ryan Davis (leading receiver; missed finale)
• OL Solatoa Moea’i (missed finale; 299 snaps)

Utah Coaching Changes

Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham took the Michigan job and will not coach in the Las Vegas Bowl. Utes defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley (and head coach in waiting) will take over.

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Net Yards Per Play:  Utah +.63

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Utah is the best rushing team in the nation ranking 1st in rush EPA while Nebraska is one of the worst at stopping the run ranking 130th in opponent rush EPA.  Nebraska is a very bad team right now, and they can’t stop what Utah does best.  Utah’s defense is solid especially near the red zone ranking 22nd in opponent red zone TD percentage.

Verdict:  Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is finally leaving, and this team will attempt to put on a huge performance.   I would look at Nebraska’s team total and go under.

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Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Rice vs. Texas State -14.5 O/U 58.5
Location:  Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
Time:  1 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Rice’s Motivation:  High – This team was terrible and somehow they get to play in a bowl game.

Texas State’s Motivation:  Medium – This team was better than their record, but still may show up here.

Home:  None – both teams about 270 miles away in the Houston area.

Rice Opt-Outs

• Starting QB Chase Jenkins (will not play in bowl)

I’d expect Patrick Crayton Jr. to start at quarterback.

Rice Transfer Portal

• Starting QB Chase Jenkins (712 snaps)
• WR Drayden Dickmann (653 snaps)
• RB Daelen Alexander (74 carries, 392 yards)
• S LaVonte Johnson (76 snaps)
• QB Drew Devillier (46 snaps)

Rice Injuries

• CB Khary Crump (kicked off team in Week 7)

Texas State Transfer Portal

• RG Tellek Lockette (277 snaps; injured since Week 6)
• RB/KR Jaylen Jenkins (55 snaps)

Texas State Injuries

• DT Bryce Carter (missed final two games; 312 snaps

AutoZone Liberty Bowl – Navy vs. Cincinnati +7 O/U 55.5
Location:  Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
Time:  4:30 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Navy’s Motivation:  High – Military always shows up.

Cincinnati’s Motivation:  Low – QB Brendan Sorsby won’t play, while the Bearcats for a minute thought they could win the Big 12.

Home:  None

Navy Potential Opt-Outs

• DT Landon Robinson

Navy Injuries

• LB Job Grant (missed final two games)
• CB Irabonoise Oniha (missed final two games)
• TE Cody Howard (last played in Week 9)

Cincinnati Transfer Portal

• Starting QB Brendan Sorsby (will not play)
• Starting S Christian Harrison (683 snaps)
• Starting S Trevon Gola-Callard (628 snaps)
• Starting S Jiquan Sanks (506 snaps)
• Starting CB Logan Wilson (548 snaps; also KR)
• Starting DE Mikah Coleman (447 snaps)
• CB Ormaine Arnold (257 snaps; 13 PBUs)
• S Tayden Barnes (185 snaps)
• Depth CB Kye Stokes (18 snaps)
• Depth S Willie Goodwyn (7 snaps)
• DT Kamari Burns (174 snaps)
• RT Ethan Green (82 snaps)

None of the above are on the bowl depth chart. The Cincinnati secondary will be extremely thin, which may be tied to losing CB coach Eddie Hicks to Arkansas.

Cincinnati Potential Opt-Outs

• DT Dontay Corleone (declared for NFL Draft; not on depth chart)
• LB Jake Golday (declared for NFL Draft; on depth chart)

With QB Sorsby out, Satterfield said both fourth-year senior Brady Lichtenberg (333 career passing yards) and freshman Samaj Jones (2 pass attempts this year) will see action under center.

Cincinnati Injuries

Nothing noteworthy.

Net Yards Per Play:   Cincinnati +.85

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Nothing is more noteworthy than Cincinnati losing their best player in quarterback Brendan Sorsby and a bunch of other starters.   We literally know almost nothing of the backups minus the fact that Cincinnati can run the ball some.  

Verdict: If both teams were active and healthy, Cincinnati would be a 10 point favorite here.   The line has really flipped sixteen to seventeen points and as much as I like Military academies, this is getting a little out of hand.  I will wait and watch the line, but I really lean the Bearcats here as their backups may be as good as most of Navy’s starters.

Play:  Lean Cincinnati +7

Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State -3 O/U 56.5
Location:  Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Time:  8 p.m.
TV Network:  ESPN

Wake Forest’s Motivation:  High – Get to beat an SEC team close to home.

Mississippi State’s Motivation:  Medium High – They haven’t went bowling in a while.   

Home:  Definitely Wake Forest as they are only 85 miles away.  Give them 2 points.

Wake Forest Transfer Portal

• DT Mateen Ibirogba (stud)
• WR Christopher Barnes (323 snaps)
• WR Micah Mays Jr. (one snap in finale)

Wake Forest Potential Opt Outs

• RB Demond Claiborne (declared for NFL draft)

Wake Forest Potential Opt Outs

• RT Fa’alili Fa’amoe
• S Davaughn Patterson
• S Nick Andersen

Wake Forest Injuries

• EDGE Nuer Gatkuoth (missed finale; 390 snaps)
• OG George Steih (last played in Week 12; 514 snaps; freshman Clinton Richard has filled in nicely)
• WR Micah Mays Jr. (one snap in finale)

Mississippi State Transfer Portal

• S Tony Mitchell (374 snaps)

Mississippi State Potential Opt-Outs

• S Isaac Smith

Mississippi State Injuries

• LB Derion Gullette (last played W12)

Mississippi State Coaching Changes

The Bulldogs fired defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler. Zach Arnett will return to Starkville to take back his old role.

Net yards Per Play:  Wake Forest +1.78

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  Wake Forest has the best unit on the field in their defense ranking 15th in EPA.   My big worry is the fact that they tend to turn over the football a little too much for my liking.   The big question for me is if Wake can put up enough points to be in this game.   The Demon Decans offense is pretty bad ranking 117th in success rate.  

Verdict:   I think we wait for Blake Shapen to be announced in before we make any moves here.  My number is Miss State -2.5, but I would be willing to take a +4 if we can get it.

Play:  Lean Wake Forest +3

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs. SMU +3 O/U 51.5
Location:  Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
Time:  8 p.m.
TV Network:  Fox

Arizona’s Motivation:   Medium High – Good bowl game and showcase for QB Noah Fifita if he plays.

SMU’s Motivation:  Low – Missed their chance at the playoffs at the end of the season by losing to Cal.

Home:  This is more old Pac 12 country and U of A will have more fans.   1 point home field advantage for U of A.

Arizona Transfer Portal

• G Michael Wooten (230 snaps)
• TE Keyan Burnett (107 snaps)

Arizona Potential Opt-Outs

• CB Treydan Stukes
• S Genesis Smith

Head coach Brett Brennan said there could be opt-outs.

Arizona Injuries

• RT Tristan Bounds (didn’t play in final two games)
• NT Tiaoalii Savea (last played in Week 11)

SMU Transfer Portal

• OLB DJ Warner (207 snaps)

SMU Potential Opt-Outs

• QB Kevin Jennings (will play)
• WR Romello Brinson
• TE RJ Maryland
• TE Matthew Hibner
• OG Logan Parr
• DL Jeff M’ba
• S Isaiah Nwokobia

SMU Injuries

Nothing noteworthy.

Net Yards Per Play:   Arizona +.2

Basic Stats:

Key Stats:  This is a very underrated bowl game.  Both quarterbacks will want to put on a show for the NFL.   The interesting thing is that Arizona’s defense is very underrated ranking 15th in opponent pass EPA and 6th in opponent passing success rate.   SMU Quarterback can get the job done however with his arm and his legs.   This matchup could end up being a lower scoring game even though SMU ranks 15th in tempo.

Verdict:   I like Arizona to win, but not my much.  My line on this game is Arizona -2 so I as of now have to lean SMU anything 3 or over.  No rush for this one.

Play:  Lean Arizona ML -142

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References:

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2025-college-football-bowl-news-updates-opt-outs-transfer-portal-coaching-changes-injuries-tracker