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Week 17 • Saturday, Dec. 27, 2025 • 4:30 PM ET • SoFi Stadium Sources: ESPN, FOX Sports, Chargers Wire
🏈 Team Records & Rankings
Category
Texans
Chargers
Record
10–5
11–4
Points Per Game
23.1 (18th)
23.3 (16th)
Points Allowed
16.6 (1st)
20.1 (8th)
Total Yards/Game
323.9 (19th)
—
Yards Allowed/Game
272.3 (1st)
—
👤 Key Player Stats
Texans
C.J. Stroud: 243/372, 2,628 yards, 16 TD, 6 INT
Nico Collins: 68 REC, 1,060 yards, 6 TD
Will Marks: 584 rushing yards, 2 TD
Chargers
Justin Herbert: 319/480, 3,491 yards, 25 TD, 12 INT
Ladd McConkey: 65 REC, 758 yards, 6 TD
Kimani Vidal: 631 rushing yards, 3 TD
🔥 The Stakes
Texans (10–5):
Clinch a playoff berth with a win.
Riding a 7‑game winning streak.
Looking to sweep the Chargers after eliminating them in last year’s postseason.
Chargers (11–4):
Already clinched a playoff spot.
A win sets up a massive Week 18 showdown with Denver for the division.
On a 4‑game winning streak.
⚔️ Matchup Breakdown
1. When the Texans Have the Ball
Offense ranking: 19th overall
C.J. Stroud: Efficient but not explosive lately; 187 yards last week
Strength: Ball security — Texans are +15 in turnover differential, best in the NFL
Challenge: Chargers defense is top‑10 across the board (3rd overall)
Key question: Can Houston sustain drives against one of the league’s most disciplined defenses?
2. When the Chargers Have the Ball
Offense ranking: 11th overall
Justin Herbert: Coming off a 300‑yard, 3‑TD performance vs Dallas
Run game: Omarion Hampton adds balance (85 yards, TD last week)
Challenge: Texans have the #1 defense in the NFL — #1 in yards allowed, #1 in scoring, #4 vs run, #4 vs pas
🔮 Texans vs. Chargers — Prediction
The Texans need this game more than the Chargers do, but you know what they say about “must wins.” If you must win, then you must not be that good.
Houston’s offense is pretty bad ranking 23th in EPA. They have one of the worst offensive lines in football. This doesn’t bode well against a team that is top 9 in sacks. The Chargers have a solid offense ranking 17th in EPA and Yards per play.
Houston’s saving grace is usually their defense ranking 1st in overall EPA per play, but the Chargers rank 6th themselves with a better pressure rate.
The biggest issue with the Texas is that this team is very injured in the secondary. They are down three of four starters.
The Chargers have the better coach in Jim Harbaugh and they are at home. I say lay the small number or the moneyline.
GameAbove Sports Bowl – Central Michigan vs. Northwestern -10.5 O/U 43.5 Location: Ford Field (Detroit) Time: 1 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Central Michigan’s Motivation: High – They get a Big 10 school however bad it may be.
Northwestern’s Motivation: Medium Low – Terrible opponent and terrible venue to have to go to Detroit.
Home: None
Central Michigan Transfer Portal
DL Kade Kostus (103 snaps)
Central Michigan Potential Opt-Outs
DE Michael Heldman
Central Michigan Injuries
QB Angel Flores (backup who was used often; hasn’t played since W9)
Northwestern Potential Opt-Outs
LT Caleb Tiernan
DE Anto Saka
Northwestern Injuries
RB Caleb Komolafe (missed finale)
RB Joseph Himon (left finale with injury)
WR Drew Wagner (last played in Week 12)
CB Fred Davis (didn’t play in finale)
DE Aidan Hubbard (hurt in Week 12)
DE Richie Hagerty (hurt in Week 9)
Head coach David Braun said he’s confident on Komolafe and Himon being back.
Net Yards Per Play: Central Michigan +.32
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Nothing is more key than Central Michigan’s 132nd ranked schedule to Northwestern’s ranking 34th. The Cats should be able to run the ball at will against a defense ranking 82nd in opponent rushing success rate.
Verdict: Believe it or not, I think that the Wildcats have a pretty good showing in this game. I would lay -10.5, but I am going to wait some to see if I get a better number, or if more people opt out. I’ll update as we go.
Play: Northwestern -10.5 – 1 star
Rate Bowl – New Mexico vs. Minnesota -2.5 O/U 47.5 Location: Chase Field (Phoenix) Time: 4:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
New Mexico’s Motivation: High – Get to beat a power 4 school close to home.
Minnesota’s Motivation: Medium Low – Best to use this as a warm vacation in Phoenix.
Home: New Mexico for the 3 points.
New Mexico Injuries
G Richard Pearce (last played in Week 12)
S Drew Speech (missed final two games)
DT Xavier Slayton (missed final two games)
They have a decent shot to suit up.
New Mexico Potential Opt-Outs
DE Keyshawn James-Newby (could see him getting P4 looks)
Minnesota Transfer Portal
RB2 Fame Ijeboi (495 yards)
WR Malachi Coleman (174 snaps)
Minnesota Potential Opt-Outs
WR Le’Meke Brockington (declared for NFL draft)
RB Darius Taylor
DT Deven Eastern
DE Anthony Smith
Fleck did not say if Brockington would play in the bowl or not.
Minnesota Injuries
CB Za’Quan Bryan (missed finale)
RG Marcellus Marshall (missed finale)
LB Matt Kingsbury (missed finale)
Net Yards Per Play: New Mexico +1.23
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Going against the grain here. So the Strength of schedule isn’t nearly as much of a factor here with Minnesota ranking 56th and New Mexico ranking 91st. It’s still a considerable difference, but not to the case of 1.23 net yards per play of a difference. New Mexico may be able to stop the pathetic gopher offense as long as they do not turn over the ball. New Mexico is -6 in turnover margin while Minnesota is +7.
Verdict: PJ Fleck is 6-0 in bowl games. That worries me some, but New Mexico should have the motivation to beat a power 4 school, and the home field advantage to win this game in Phoenix.
Play: New Mexico +2.5 – 1.5 stars
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl – Florida International vs. UTSA -6.5 O/U 59.5 Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) Time: 8 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Florida International’s Motivation: Medium High – They already live in good weather, they will be on business here.
UTSA’s Motivation: Medium – Former rival but not the greatest reward playing here. Will be fine.
Home: UTSA gets 1.5 points for being 290 miles away.
FIU Potential Opt-Outs
CB Brian Blades II
FIU Transfer Portal
CB Mister Clark (776 snaps)
CB Victor Evans (481 snaps)
FS Jessiah McGrew (769 snaps)
RT Daniel Michel (454 snaps)
None will play in the bowl. FIU will be extremely shorthanded in the secondary.
FIU Injuries
QB Joe Pesansky (foot)
QB Keyone Jenkins (groin)
Pesansky had started a few games before original starter Keyone Jenkins returned from injury and started the finale. Head coach Willie Simmons said both quarterbacks might play.
Starting NT Chidera Otutu (287 snaps)
Starting CB KK Meier (399 snaps)
Starting CB Davin Martin (437 snaps)
Starting DE Kenny Ozowalu (stud; 341 snaps)
It sounds like more names are coming after head coach Jeff Traylor said his team will “be a shell of themselves” for the bowl game.
UTSA Transfer Portal
Starting NT Chidera Otutu (287 snaps)
Starting CB KK Meier (399 snaps)
Starting CB Davin Martin (437 snaps)
Starting DE Kenny Ozowalu (stud; 341 snaps)
DE Daemian Wimberly (168 snaps)
UTSA Potential Opt-Outs
LB Shad Banks Jr.
UTSA Injuries
OLB Vic Shaw (missed finale; 349 snaps)
RG Darrell Jones (hurt in Week 13; didn’t play finale)
TE3 Dan Dishman (hurt in Week 12)
FS Jermarius Lewis (hurt in Week 12; 231 snaps)
Net Yards Per Play: UTSA +.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: These teams are pretty evenly matched if you think that both conferences are pretty equal. Both teams are decimated with transfers, but it sounds like UTSA will have more leaving the program than FIU.
Verdict: UTSA is the better team by some when both teams have everyone, but I think taking points makes a lot of sense in this one. I am not overly excited about it though.
FIU +6.5 – 2 stars
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl – Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina +9.5 O/U 57.5 Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland) Time: 11 a.m. TV Network: ESPN
Pittsburgh’s Motivation: Low – The Panther’s would rather stay home and watch re-runs of the wire than actually travel to Maryland to play the AAC.
East Carolina’s Motivation: High – Get to beat an ACC team is a good Christmas gift.
Home: None really, both teams are about 300 miles away.
Pitt Potential Opt-Outs
RB Desmond Reid
LB Kyle Louis
LB Rasheem Biles
RT Ryan Baer
Pitt Injuries
RB Desmond Reid (missed final two games)
DT Sean FitzSimmons (last played in Week 10)
RG Ryan Carretta (didn’t play final two games)
East Carolina Transfer Portal
QB Katin Houser (will not play in bowl)
TE Jayvontay Conner (496 snaps)
WR Yannick Smith (583 yards, 5 TDs)
East Carolina Potential Opt Outs
WR Anthony Smith
East Carolina Injuries
LG Panda Askew (didn’t play in finale)
East Carolina Coaching Changes
ECU defensive coordinator Josh Aldridge left for the same role at USF, while offensive coordinator John David Baker is headed to Ole Miss in the same role.
Net Yards Per Play: Pitt +.1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: So I do not think that the ACC and the AAC have all that much of a difference in power minus maybe Miami. Pitt has a very good defense when stopping both the run and the pass unless they are playing teams like Notre Dame and the Hurricanes. Both teams play a fast top 25 tempo, yet both rank in the top 18 in defensive success rate.
Verdict: I really wanted to bet the Pirates, but losing their coordinators and their starting quarterback Katin Houser doesn’t breed much confidence. I expect starting Panther quarterback Mason Heintschel to play. There is way too much variance in this game and I lean to the under even though these teams usually play pretty fast.
Play: Lean Under 57.5
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl – Penn State vs. Clemson -3.5 O/U 48.5 Location: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York) Time: Noon TV Network: ABC
Penn State’s Motivation: High – They actually get a very good opponent here.
Clemson’s Motivation: High – Also a very good opponent.
Home: Maybe a little for Penn State, but nothing more than .5 being in the Northeast.
Penn State Transfer Portal
CB Elliott Washington (256 snaps)
Penn State Opt-Outs
RB Nicholas Singleton
DT Zane Durant
S Zakee Wheatley
LG Olaivavega Ioane
Penn State Potential Opt-Outs
DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
RB Kaytron Allen
CB A.J. Harris
WR Trebor Pena
LB Amare Campbell
LT Drew Shelton
RT Nolan Rucci
Penn State Injuries
QB Drew Allar (out for year)
LB Tony Rojas (out for year)
Penn State Coaching Changes
The Nittany Lions fired head coach James Franklin during the season, which led to Terry Smith taking over as interim head coach. Matt Campbell will take over next season.
Clemson Transfer Portal
S Khalil Barnes (522 snaps)
Clemson Opt-Outs
DT DeMonte Capehart (declared for NFL draft)
DT Peter Woods (declared for NFL Draft)
DE T.J. Parker (declared for NFL Draft)
CB Avieon Terrell (declared for NFL Draft)
WR Antonio Williams (declared for NFL Draft)
Potential Opt-Outs
CB Jeadyn Lukus
QB Cade Klubnik (says he will play)
LT Blake Miller (says he will play)
Head coach Dabo Swinney said he doesn’t expect any more opt-outs, but that could obviously change. Clemson is looking to extend its FBS record of consecutive years with a postseason victory to 15. DE Will Heldt will play (returning next season).
Clemson Injuries
Starting LB Wade Woodaz (surgery; will not play)
Starting LG Collin Sadler
Starting WR Bryant Wesco (hurt in Week 8; out for year)
Starting TE Olsen Patt-Henry (hurt in Week 13; out for year)
DL Jahiem Lawson (hurt in W13; 300 snaps)
RG Walker Parks (hurt in Week 12; out for year)
OL Brayden Jacobs (hurt in Week 12; out for year)
OG Elyjah Thurmon (hurt in week 4; out for year)
QB Cade Klubnik (did not throw in practice on Dec. 15 but should be ready)
Head coach Dabo Swinney said 27 players will miss the bowl game, mostly due to injury. That includes eight who started in the regular season finale.
Net Yards Per Play: Even
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: The Lions have had the much harder schedule even though it just ranks 26th on Sagarin to Clemson’s ranking 47th. I mean, look who Penn State has played? Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. WTF. Anyways, Penn State has the better numbers on offense ranking 31st in EPA to Clemson ranking 52nd respectively. Clemson has the better numbers on D.
Verdict: Call this the preseason overrated disappointment bowl with these two teams. I really thought that Ethan Grunkemeyer was no worse than Dre Allar this year. He had a 69% completion percentage compared to Allar at 64%. Ethan actually had the better passer rating. I know that more kids may opt out for Penn State, but I see a more thus far for Clemson that will not be playing in this game. I’ll take the points.
Penn State +3.5 – 2 stars
Wasabi Fenway Bowl – UConn vs. Army -8.5 O/U 43.5 Location: Fenway Park (Boston) Time: 2:15 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
UConn’s Motivation: Medium – They are close by, but a cool venue. Lots of opt outs though.
Army’s Motivation: High – Military will always fight, and this is a very cool place to play.
Home: Both are within 212 Miles away, so no home advantage.
UConn Opt-Outs
QB Joe Fagnano
There’s a slight chance UConn could be down to QB4 if backup Nick Evers ends up entering the portal.
UConn Transfer Portal
Starting RT Carsten Casady (774 snaps)
Starting LT Ben Murawski (773 snaps)
Starting RG Brady Wayburn (430 snaps)
Starting RB Cam Edwards (says he’ll play)
Starting CB Cam Chadwick (796 snaps)
Starting LB Oumar Diomande (790 snaps)
CB Osiris Gilbert (288 snaps)
RB Victor Rosa (157 snaps)
RB Mel Brown (56 snaps)
RB MJ Flowers (37 snaps)
DL Vincent Carroll-Jackson
UConn Injuries
TE3 Juice Vereen (last played W11; 211 snaps)
DT Vincent Carroll-Jackson (last played W12; 494 snaps)
S Tyrece Mills (last played W12; 251 snaps)
Army Injuries
RG Paolo Gennarelli (last played W11)
Net Yards Per Play: UCONN +1.88
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: UCONN has the best unit on the field in their offense ranking 12th in offensive EPA as long as their passing game shows up.
Verdict: This has become the wait and see bowl. UCONN quarterback Joe Fagnano has opted out leaving a big decision for backup quarterback Nick Evers. If he doesn’t play, the Huskies will really not have a quarterback this game. Skyler Bell has an uphill battle trying to get everyone to play. If Evers and most of the portal kids play, the line should be Uconn -2.5, if they don’t play, the line should be Army -13. This total will be affected as well.
Play: Lean Army -8.5
Pop-Tarts Bowl – Georgia Tech vs. BYU -4.5 O/U 56.5 Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida) Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Network: ABC
Georgia Tech’s Motivation: Low – They had a shot at the Playoffs and blew it.
BYU’s Motivation: Low – They also had a shot at the playoffs even more recently and blew it.
Home: Give Georgia Tech .5 points for being in Atlanta, but it’s not that close at 436 miles away.
Georgia Tech Transfer Portal
Starting C Tana Alo-Tupuola
Backup QB Aaron Philo
LB Melvin Jordan IV (148 snaps)
Georgia Tech Potential Opt-Outs
RG Keylan Rutledge (sounds like he may play)
WR Eric Rivers (expected to play)
QB Haynes King (expected to play)
RB Jamal Haynes
Georgia Tech Injuries
DB Jy Gilmore (out for season; last played in Week 13)
DT Akelo Stone (last played in Week 13)
EDGE Andre Fuller only played three snaps vs. Georgia
Georgia Tech Coaching Changes
OC Buster Faulkner took the same position with Florida. Co-OC Chris Weinke will likely take over duties for play calling.
BYU Potential Opt-Outs
LT Isaiah Jatta
RB LJ Martin
WR Chase Roberts
DT Keanu Tanuvasa
Net Yards Per Play: Georgia Tech +.43
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both of these teams are very solid at pretty much everything. BYU had the harder schedule, but Georgia Tech has the better offensive stats ranking 22nd in EPA. BYU’s defense however ranks 18th in EPA and may be able to slow Haynes King down from that read option.
Verdict: This should be called the “almost had it bowl” based on their schedules. Otherwise, neither of these teams really belonged. I think that BYU is the better team, and probably the more motivated team, however, the Bees have the best play maker in Haynes King. He is like a poor man’s Josh Allen to me. My number is BYU -3.5 so I have to wait.
Play: Lean Georgia Tech +4.5
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl – Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State -5 O/U 41.5 Location: Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona) Time: 4:30 p.m. TV Network: CW Network
Miami Ohio’s Motivation: Medium – Finish the season on a good note in Tucson.
Fresno State’s Motivation: Medium Low – Not a great opponent or destination, yet they will still try and win.
Home: None
Miami (OH) Transfer Portal
Starting WR Kam Perry (led nation in yards per catch; nearly 1,000 yards; won’t play)
Starting DE Adam Trick (best defensive player)
Starting CB Mychal Yharbrough (591 snaps)
Starting RT Drew Terrill (best OL)
Miami (OH) Potential Opt-Outs
S Eli Blakey
S Silas Walters
Miami (OH) Injuries
QB Dequan Finn left the program
LB Corban Hondru (stud; missed final two games)
Fresno State Transfer Portal
S Jayden Davis (285 snaps)
Fresno State Potential Opt-Outs
CB Al’zillion Hamilton
DL Korey Foreman
Fresno State Injuries
S Ryan Wilson (missed finale)
DT Martin Owusu (last played in Week 10; 286 snaps)
Net Yards Per Play: Even
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: These two teams are almost identical in stats, strength of schedule, QBR, passing and rush EPA, defensive EPA and success rates.
Verdict: It’s all about the quarterback for Miami Ohio, as they have two pretty bad backups and a lot of guys opting out, BUT, Chuck Martin is 6-0 ATS in bowl games and that worries me some. I think that this line keeps going up and will at some point warrant a buyback past the 7. Matt Entz has shown thus far to be a pretty darn good coach for the Bulldogs. For now, take Fresno State.
Play: Fresno State -5 – 2 stars
Isleta New Mexico Bowl – North Texas vs. San Diego State +3 O/U 53.5 Location: University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico) Time: 5:45 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
North Texas’s Motivation: Medium Low – Hopes and dreams crushed and they maybe questioning their ability while a new coach situation looms.
San Diego State’s Motivation: High – Great season and this team is just getting started with Sean Lewis as coach.
Home: None, as both teams are a bit over 600 miles away from Albuquerque.
North Texas Transfer Portal
DT Jayden Williams
QB Drew Mestemaker
North Texas Potential Opt-Outs
RB Caleb Hawkins
WR Wyatt Young
WR Miles Coleman
North Texas Injuries
RB Caleb Hawkins (stud; left conference title game with injury)
LB Shane Whitter (last played in Week 10; 468 snaps)
RB Makenzie McGill II (last played in Week 8; 206 snaps)
WR Simeon Evans (last played in Week 11; 211 snaps)
North Texas Coaching Changes
Head coach Eric Morris took the job at Oklahoma State and will not be with the team for the bowl.
San Diego State Transfer Portal
DE Jared Badie (131 snaps)
EDGE August Salvati (118 snaps)
San Diego State Potential Opt-Outs
CB Chris Johnson
LB Owen Chambliss
EDGE Trey White
Johnson will be drafted, while rumors have swirled that Chambliss and White (both All-MWC) could follow DC Aurich to Nebraska.
San Diego State Injuries
QB Jayden Denegal (surgery; will not play)
WR Jordan Napier (out for year)
WR Jacob Bostick (out for year)
LB Tano Letuli (last played in Week 10; 209 snaps)
Former Central Michigan QB Bert Emanuel Jr. will start in place of Denegal.
San Diego State Coaching Changes
Aztec defensive coordinator Rob Aurich took the same job with Nebraska. Passing game coordinator Demetrius Sumler will serve as the interim DC for the bowl game.
Net Yards Per Play: North Texas +.78
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: North Texas clearly has the best unit in their offense, but without their coach Eric Morris, and their starting quarterback, what are they. The Aztecs have been getting better every game that they play. Their defense ranks 3rd in EPA. Both quarterbacks are out this game, and I think that flips the playing field to San Diego State. The Mean Green’s defense is poor ranking 69th in EPA.
Verdict: I do not see how you can go against coach Sean Lewis and the Aztecs. The Mean Green blew their playoff hopes and it will be tough to get up for a bowl game. I expect more opt outs for North Texas
San Diego State +3 – 2 stars
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl – Virginia vs. Missouri -7 O/U 48.5 Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) Time: 7:30 p.m TV Network: ABC
Virginia’s Motivation: Medium Low – They blew their playoff chances against Duke, but coach Bennett will get them back up.
Missouri’s Motivation: Medium – Why not beat up an ACC opponent with the change to meet Trevor Lawrence?
Home: None
Virginia Transfer Portal
Starting CB Ja’Son Prevard (585 snaps)
Virginia Potential Opt-Outs
RB J’Mari Taylor
QB Chandler Morris
DE Fisher Camac
S Antonio Clary
S Devin Neal
Virginia Injuries
LB Kam Robinson (out for year)
TE Dakota Twitty (last played W6; 247 snaps)
WR Trell Harris (top wideout left ACC title game with an injury; still waiting on imaging)
RG Kevin Wigenton II
Missouri Transfer Portal
Starting QB Beau Pribula (won’t play)
WR Josh Manning (318 yards, 2 TDs; will not play)
WR Marquis Johnson (340 yards, 2 TDs; will not play)
With Pribula entering the portal, backup Matt Zollers — who started three games this season — will get the start.
Missouri is also pretty thin at wide receiver.
Missouri Injuries
Starting TE Brett Norfleet (won’t play)
Starting LB Josiah Trotter (won’t play)
Net Yards Per Play: Missouri +.55
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Mizzu had the much harder schedule than Virginia. I know that there are some opt outs for the Tigers including quarterback Beau Pribula, but this team ranks 15th in rushing success rate and 14th in rush EPA. They should be able to run all over Virginia. Even if Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris Plays, I think Missouri can torch this team on the ground.
Verdict: Eli Drinkwitz is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in bowl games. Virginia gives up 4.72 yards per rush. This decision is easy to me.
Play: Missouri -4 – 2 stars
Kinder’s Texas Bowl – LSU vs. Houston -3 O/U 41.5 Location: NRG Stadium (Houston) Time: 9:15 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
LSU’s Motivation: Medium – They might want to try and impress Lane.
Houston’s Motivation: High – Get to play an SEC team.
Home: Houston gets a home game here, but only 2 points of advantage down in SEC country.
LSU Transfer Portal
DT Ahmad Breaux (274 snaps)
OL Carius Curne (305 snaps)
LSU Opt-Outs
CB Mansoor Delane (potential first round pick)
LSU Potential Opt-Outs
S AJ Haulcy
DE Patrick Payton
DE Jack Pyburn (accepted Senior Bowl invite)
LB Harold Perkins
WR Zavion Thomas
WR Barion Brown
WR Chris Hilton
LSU Injuries
LB Whit Weeks (will not play)
C Braelin Moore (missed finale; has a chance, per interim Frank Wilson)
QB Garrett Nussmeier (hasn’t played since Week 11; will not play)
WR Aaron Anderson (last played in Week 12; 241 snaps; status up in the air)
WR Nic Anderson (last played in Week 11; 222 snaps)
Nussmeier will not play, so Michael Van Buren will make his fourth straight start.
Houston Opt Outs
Demetrius Hunter left the program on Dec. 8.
Houston Potential Opt-Outs
RB Dean Connors
TE Tanner Koziol (accepted Senior Bowl invite)
DE Eddie Walls
QB Conner Weigman announced he will return to Houston in 2026 for his final season of eligibility.
Houston Injuries
DT Khalil Laufau (missed finale; 649 snaps)
Net Yards Per Play: Houston +.31
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: LSU had a brutal schedule ranking 9th to Houston’s cakewalk ranking 69th. In saying that, LSU players have no clue what to do here with no real coach. I honestly don’t even know if they care to practice that much. The potential opt outs for the Tigers is massive. The Cougars should be keeping everyone.
Verdict: I do not think that there is any downgrade for LSU at quarterback from Nussmeier to Van Buren. If everyone else plays, this should be a pickem game. Gonna have to wait it out.
Lean: LSU +3
Monday, Dec. 29
JLAB Birmingham Bowl – Georgia Southern vs. App State +7 O/U 59.5 Location: Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama) Time: 2 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Georgia Southern’s Motivation: Medium – At least they got an opponent even though it’s in the Sun Belt, not a great venue.
App State’s Motivation: Medium – Lucky to get a revenge spot against a Sun Belt opponent who beat them.
Home: None
Georgia Southern Injuries
RB OJ Arnold (stud; missed finale)
WR Dalen Cobb (missed finale)
DT Devan Lowe (missed finale)
Appalachian State Transfer Portal
QB AJ Swann (lost job late in year)
QB JJ Kohl (took starting job late in year)
Starting S DJ Burks (leading tackler over past two seasons)
Starting WR Davion Dozier (448 yards, 5 TDs)
Starting CB Elijah Mc-Cantos (705 snaps)
LB Brayshawn Littlejohn (305 snaps)
EDGE Thomas Davis (220 snaps; hasn’t played since Week 8)
If Swann and Kohl don’t suit up, App State only has two quarterbacks with little experience on the roster.
Appalachian State Injuries
WR Jaden Barnes (didn’t play final two games)
RG Trent Ramsey (hasn’t played since Week 8)
TE Izayah Cummings (hasn’t played since Week 9)
S Dylan Hasz (missed final two games)
Net Yards Per Play: App State +.41
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both defenses are pretty bad, but Georgia Southern has the best unit on the field in their offense that ranks 50th in EPA.
Verdict: App State quarterback JJ Kohl would be an idiot to play in this bowl game. The guy that he replaced is also gone. There is really no quarterback to man this team while the transfer portal is lighting up for the Mountaineers. This game could get ugly. Play Georgia Southern.
Coastal Carolina’s Motivation: Medium Low – Fired coach and not the greatest bowl game or opponent.
Louisiana Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Basically a home game in their state.
Home: LA Tech is only 65 miles away. Give them 3 points.
Coastal Carolina Transfer Portal
LT Nick Del Grande (663 snaps)
OL Joseph Hanson
Coastal Carolina Injuries
QB Samari Collier (missed final two games with a knee injury)
LT Nick Del Grande (missed final two games)
CB Myles Mooyoung (missed final two games)
LB Shane Bruce (hurt W11; 306 snaps)
S Dante Thomas (missed final two games; 247 snaps)
Tad Hudson would start at QB if Collier can’t go.
Coastal Carolina Coaching Changes
The Chants fired head coach Tim Beck. Defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson will serve as the interim head coach for the bowl.
Louisiana Tech Transfer Portal
QB Evan Bullock
S Michael Richard (603 snaps)
S Jacob Fields (775 snaps)
LB Mekhi Mason (675 snaps)
I’d expect Trey Kukuk to start at QB in the bowl. He started the final two games.
Louisiana Tech Injuries
QB Blake Baker (hurt in Week 11; out for year)
RT Kenneth Bannister (out since Week 7; 306 snaps)
Net yards Per Play: LA Tech +1.49
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Louisiana Tech is the much better team when healthy, but both teams are missing some key guys. LA Tech’s defense is the best unit on this field ranking 16th in EPA. Coastal is pretty bad everywhere.
Verdict: Coastal lost their coach, but maybe some of these kids stay motivated. The big question is if Samari Collier is going to be able to play for the Chants. If not, this is a no brainer bet for me on the Bulldogs.
Play: Lean LA Tech -9.5
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl – Tennessee vs. Illinois +2.5 O/U 61.5 Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee) Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Tennessee’s Motivation: Medium – Get to play close to home in Nash-Vegas.
Illinois Motivation: Medium High – Solid bowl game for this team in a fun destination.
Home: Only 180 miles to Knoxville gives Tennessee the 2.5 points.
Tennessee Transfer Portal
CB Boo Carter (239 snaps)
Tennessee Opt-Outs
WR Chris Brazzell II (declared for NFL draft)
LB Arion Carter (declared for NFL draft)
Tennessee Potential Opt-Outs
LT Lance Heard
DE Joshua Josephs
CB Colton Hood
S Jalen McMurray
TE Miles Kitselman (also injured)
Tennessee Injuries
TE Miles Kitselman (missed final 2 games)
EDGE Jordan Ross (missed finale; 217 snaps)
Illinois Opt-Outs
LB Gabe Jacas
OL J.C. Davis
Illinois Potential Opt-Outs
S Xavier Scott
WR Hank Beatty
TE Tanner Arkin
Illinois Injuries
LB Jojo Hayden (missed finale; 239 snaps)
S Matthew Bailey (had surgery; will not play)
Net Yards Per Play: Tennessee +.49
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: The Vols offense is the best unit on the field ranking 11th in EPA and 5th in success rate. Illinois defense is pretty bad whenever they face a team with a pulse ranking 99th in defensive EPA. Both teams only have two opt outs at this time.
Verdict: I see value on Tennessee as I think that this team will be motivated very close to home. Both teams will have their quarterbacks playing some football. Both teams without their best WR. Gotta take the Vols.
Tennessee -2.5 – 2 stars
Valero Alamo Bowl – USC vs. TCU +6.5 O/U 55.5 Location: Alamodome (San Antonio) Time: 9 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
USC’s Motivation: Medium High – They have been out of the playoffs for a while now and need to build up.
TCU’s Motivation: High – Getting a chance to beat USC should be fun.
Home: Definitely for TCU only 278 miles away. Give them 2.5 points.
USC Transfer Portal
CB Braylon Conley (201 snaps)
DL Devan Thompkins
TE Walker Lyons
USC Opt-Outs
TE Lake McRee
WR Ja’Kobi Lane
WR Makai Lemon
EDGE Anthony Lucas
LB Eric Gentry
S Kamari Ramsey
S Bishop Fitzgerald
USC Potential Opt-Outs
DT Keeshawn Silver
USC Injuries
DE Jahkeem Stewart (won’t be available)
RG Alani Noa (missed finale)
LT Elijah Paige (hasn’t played since Week 11; won’t play)
C Killian O’Connor (won’t play)
USC Coaching Changes
While nothing is official, defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn won’t speak to the media this week after previously being scheduled to do so.
TCU Transfer Portal
QB Josh Hoover
With Hoover entering the portal, Ken Seals will likely start under center.
TCU Potential Opt-Outs
TE DJ Rogers
WR Eric McAlister
S Jamel Johnson
S Bud Clark
DE Paul Oyewale
LB Kaleb Elarms-Orr
Sonny Dykes did say he expects everybody to play minus Hoover.
TCU Injuries
S Bud Clark (stud; missed final two games)
S Kylin Jackson (missed finale; 217 snaps)
RB Kevorian Barnes (hasn’t played since Week 11)
WR Jordan Dwyer (foot; expected to miss bowl game)
Net Yards Per Play: USC +.92
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: USC clearly has the best unit on the field in their offense ranking 4th in EPA. The problem with the Trojans is that they tend to pop when they go on defense. TCU is a medium type Power 4 team both on offense and on defense.
Verdict: There has to be a downgrade for TCU going from Josh Hoover to Senior Ken Seals, but it’s kinda hard for me to quantify that. USC will be missing their best two pass catchers in Lane and Lemon, but I expect a few Freshman here to step up and show how they could shine for next year. Both coaches Sonny Dykes and Linkin Riley are close to 50/50 ATS in bowl games.
Verdict: Lean USC -6.5, but there is a little too much variance in this game for my liking.
Merry Christmas everyone! There are three NFL games today, and there are lots of complaints that in each game, the home team is down their star quarterback. It’s actually worse than that. Not only are they down their star quarterbacks, they are also all down their second string quarterback from earlier in the season. The Vikings lost JJ McCarthy and Carson Wentz, the Commanders lost Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota, while the Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew. We are now getting Max Brosmer for the Vikings, Josh Johnson for the Commanders, and Chris Oladokun for the Chiefs. Now while I do not think that fading all of these quarterbacks in one bet may be a sharp play per say, it will at least make you feel better for watching such terrible football.
Money Line Parlay: Lions/Cowboys/Broncos -140 – 2 stars
Merry Christmas everyone! We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Brad Powers @BradPowers7 from Brad Powers Sports is back to break down a massive week of college bowls & sports betting! First, Kiev goes into NFL ATS & O/U. Next, Brad comes on and the guys get into their college football Christmas wish list. Then, we talk about the college football playoffs with some Best Bets! After that, We get into the FULL SLATE of bowl games starting December 26th and on to January 3rd. After that, the guys give out a beer bet banger bet that could buy us more suds. Then, Kiev gets into the full slate of NFL games with some more Free Plays. Next, we give out our Refuse to lose teaser that is 7-9 for the year. After that, Kiev recaps our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The Raiders out-gained the Texans 315 to 270 yet lost 23-21. A 1-0 turnover ratio and nine penalties got Las Vegas.
The Browns out-gained the Bills 294 to 256 yet lost 23-20. A 2-0 turnover ratio got the Fightings Sanders.
The Dolphins were only outgained 407 to 389 yet lost to the Bengals 45-21. A 3-0 turnover ratio and poor coaching did in the seadogs.
The Rams out-gained the Seahawks 581 to 415 yet lost 38-37 in overtime. They won the turnover battle 3-0, but poor special teams and terrible officiating got the mountain goats.
