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Podcast 763 – 99 – 25 – The Bear Necessities of Rivalry Week With Chris Fallica – College Football – NFL Week 13 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a Delicious show for you today!  The Bear Chris Fallica @Chrisfallica is back to break down a huge week of football!  First, Chris and Kiev talk about the five best things to do with thanksgiving leftovers.  Next, the boys get into the college football playoff committee and why it’s so hard to predict.  What does it take for a team to know what they have to do?  What does the committee need to fix?  Then, Chris and Kiev get into their six pack of games with some Best Bets!  After that, we talk some random games and give out a beer bet banger that may buy us a few cases if they hit!  Next, Kiev talks some NFL with a few more free plays as well as some strong leans.  Then, Kiev gives out his Refuse to lose teaser that is an improving 5-7.  After that, we go over some sharp money movement for the week.  Finally, Kiev recaps our plays!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2025

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

College Football Week 14 Betting Spots

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Let Down Spots:

  • Tulsa could let down hosting UAB after the big Army win.
  • Cincinnati lost their shot to be in the championship game and could affect them at TCU.

Revenge Spot:

  • Washington State will want revenge hosting Oregon State.
  • Wisconsin will want the Axe back at Minnesota.
  • Auburn will want Bama in the Iron Bowl.
  • Mississippi State will want Ole Miss bad in the Egg Bowl.
  • Kentucky will want to beat Louisville after the big L last year.

Get Up Spot:

  • Any and all five win teams or teams trying to make it to the championship game or playoffs.

Look Ahead Spots: 

  • Texas Tech could look past West Virginia to the title game with most likely BYU.
  • Georgia could look past Georgia Tech to SEC championship game.
  • Army could look past UTSA to the Navy Game.

Short Rest:

  • None

Long Rest:

  • Boston College off the bye at Syracuse.
  • Eastern Michigan off the bye hosting Western Michigan.
  • Oregon State off the bye at Washington State.
  • Virginia off the bye hosting Virginia Tech.

College Football Week 13 Misleading Final Scores

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
  • Florida State out-gained NC State 383-286 yet lost 21-11.   A nasty 4-0 turnover ratio and poor quarterback play did them in.
  • Missouri out-gained Oklahoma 301 to 276 yet lost 17-6.  A 2-0 turnover ratio, explosive plays and terrible red zone got the Tigers.
  • Missouri State out-gained Kennesaw State 535 to 500 yet lost 41-34.   A 2-0 turnover ratio and terrible red zone defense got the Bears.
  • FAU out-gained UCONN 687 to 600 yet lost 48-45.   A 2-0 turnover ratio did them in.
  • Jacksonville State out-gained FIU 449 to 398 yet lost 27-21.   They wont he turnover battle 2-3, but bad third and fourth down efficiency going 3/13 and 1/4 got the Gamecocks.
  • UCF out-gained Oklahoma State 396 to 228 yet only won 17-14.  A 2-1 turnover ratio and poor special teams hurt the Knights.
  • Cal out-gained Stanford 297 to 282 yet lost 31-10.  A 3-0 turnover ratio killed the Bears.
  • LSU out-gained Western Kentucky 328 to 152 yet barley won 13-10.  Equal turnovers but bad red zone and 9 penalties got the Tigers.

Fantasy Football Week 13

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Byes:  None

Key Injuries:

  • QB Baker Mayfield with a sprained left shoulder is day to day.
  • WR Tee Higgins with a concussion will miss Thursday’s game.
  • TE Michael Mayer was ruled out with an ankle.
  • RB Alvin Kamara was ruled out with a knee injury.
  • QB JJ McCarthey with a concussion may miss a week.

Waiver Wire:

  • QB Max Brosmer for the McCarthey injury is a look.
  • QB Cam Ward has been better lately.
  • RB Devin Neal for the Kamara injury can be big.
  • WR Andrei Iosivas will be big without Higgens around.
  • WR Chimere Dike had seven targets and is fantasy relevant.
  • WR Parker Washington balled out for the Jags.
  • TE Colby Parkinson found himself some paint.
  • WR Jayden Higgins had 9 targets for the Texans.
  • TE Brenton Strange had a big day with 93 yards.
  • RB Trey Benson could be back this week or next.

Sleepers/Non Starters trending up:

  • WR Andrei Iosivas with Joe Burrow throwing him the rock looks good.
  • TE Dawson Knox against the Steelers poor defense.
  • QB Kirk Cousins against the Jets is worth a look.
  • WR Darnell Mooney is a good start against the Jets.
  • WR Malik Washington against the Saints is hot.
  • WR Parker Washington against the Titans is fire.
  • RB Traveon Henderson against the Giants is solid.
  • RB Kenneth Gainwell against the Bills is fire.
  • RB RJ Harvey against the Commanders is nice.
  • RB Justice Hill against the Bengals can clean up.
  • QB Cam Ward could be a start.

Busts:

  • QB Daniel Jones against the Texans is rough.
  • QB Brock Purdy against the Browns is suspect.
  • WR Juwan Jennings against the Browns isn’t great.
  • QB Caleb Williams against the Eagles is bad.
  • WR Rome Odunze against the Eagles is rough.
  • QB DeAndre Swift against the Eagles is suspect.
  • QB Bryce Young against the Rams is sad.
  • WR Nico Collins against the Colts is a little dangerous.
  • RB Rico Dowdle against the Rams is wrong.
  • RB Josh Jacobs against the Lions could be DOA.
  • QB JJ McCarthy all time bust.

Nasty Sleeper: 

  • WR Chimere Dike has a good matchup vs the Jags.

Podcast 762 – 98 – 25 – NFL & College Football Recap & Play – Fantasy Football Week 13 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a GREAT show for you today!  Another weekend of NFL & College Football in the books, and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly.  Next, we talk some final scores with brief box score analysis.  Then, Kiev talks about NFL & College Football misleading final scores & betting spots for next week.  Who could let down?  Who could bet flat?  Who has long or short rest?  After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally, D-Nasty comes on to talk some fantasy football injuries, waivers, sleepers & busts.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football Prop Play – Panthers vs 49ers – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

https://www.tiktok.com/@theoddsbreakers/video/7576430385354116407?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7561627849494316599

NFL Week 12 Sunday Fun-day Play – Colts vs Chiefs – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Colts vs Chiefs -3.5 O/U 50.5

📍 Game Details

  • Matchup: Indianapolis Colts (8-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)

  • Date/Time: Sunday, November 23, 2025, 1:00 PM ET

  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

  • Broadcast: CBS

 

📊 Team Records & Win Probability

  • Colts: 8–2 record, 38.2% win probability

  • Chiefs: 5–5 record, 61.8% win probability

 

🔥 Betting Lines

  • Spread: Chiefs -3.5

  • Moneyline: Chiefs -187, Colts +156

  • Over/Under: 49.5 points

🏈 Team Records & Context

  • Colts (8-2): Leading the AFC South, Indianapolis has shocked the league with its offensive dominance. They rank first in points per game (32.1) and yards per play (6.4).

  • Chiefs (5-5): The reigning AFC champions are struggling, having lost two straight (Broncos, Bills). Their playoff streak is in jeopardy.

 

🔑 Key Matchups

  • Jonathan Taylor vs. Chiefs Run Defense: KC ranks 24th in defensive rush EPA, a glaring weakness against Taylor, who leads the NFL with 1,139 rushing yards.

  • Patrick Mahomes vs. Colts Secondary: Mahomes remains the X-factor. Despite KC’s struggles, his ability to extend plays could exploit Indy’s defense.

  • QB Duel: Gardner Minshew (Indy) has thrived in Shane Steichen’s system, while Mahomes is trying to drag KC back into contention

 

📈 Team Stats (Season Averages)

Category Colts Chiefs
Points per game 32.1 (1st NFL) 25.4 (9th NFL)
Passing yards 251.6 248.9
Rushing yards 145.3 (3rd NFL) 115.3
Opponent points allowed 20.6 18.1 (4th NFL)
Opponent pass yards 235.3 196.8
Opponent rush yards 92.3 100.0
 

Sources:

 

⭐ Key Players

  • Colts:

    • QB Daniel Jones – 2,659 passing yards

    • RB Jonathan Taylor – 1,139 rushing yards, 15 TDs

    • WR Michael Pittman Jr. – 6 receiving TDs

  • Chiefs:

    • QB Patrick Mahomes – 2,625 passing yards, 18 TDs

    • RB Kareem Hunt – 353 rushing yards, 6 TDs

    • TE Travis Kelce – 631 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Prediction:

  • When do numbers matter?  I mean, we are 12 weeks into the NFL season and the perception of this Chiefs team is still over-bloated.  
  • The Colts have the number 1 team in EPA throughout the season.   The Chiefs are sitting right behind them at number 2, but that doesn’t get me to this large spread.
  • Looking on the other side of the ball, the Colts rank number 10 in defensive EPA while the Chiefs are 14th.
  • It is fair to say that the Chiefs have had a much harder strength of schedule, but the big Colts wins against the Chargers, the Broncos and the Cardinals have aged pretty well.   
  • Believe it or not, the Chiefs weakness is on defense against the run ranking only a mere 24th in defensive rush EPA.   They allow 4.18 yards per rush and that is not a good number against the best running back in the world in Jonathan Taylor.   
  • Daniel Jones has seemed to grow up at quarterback ranking 4th in EPA + Completion percentage over expectation.  Mahomes ranks 7th.   
  • Colts are coming off of the bye week refreshed and sniffing a number one seed in the playoffs.   Take the Ponies.

Colts +3.5 – 2 stars

NFL Week 12 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Criminal activity, illegal transaction, crime, mafia. US Currency. Cash. Money.

As of Thursday 11/20 – The most prominent sharp sides and totals:

Sharp Money On:

  • Lions -8.5 to -10.5 hosting the Giants – 74% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • Saints +2.5 to -1.5 hosting the Falcons – 33% tickets and 42% of the money.
  • Cowboys +4.5 to +3 hosting the Eagles – 41% tickets and 48% of the money.
  • Raiders -3 to -4 hosting the Browns – 18% tickets and 34% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Patriots vs Bengals over 47.5 to 51.5 – 28% tickets and 45% of the money.
  • Browns vs Raiders under 41.5 to 36 – 36% tickets and 56% of the money.

College Football Week 13 Free Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

 

Tennessee vs Florida +4.5 O/U 57.5

 

Tennessee vs Florida is set for Saturday, Nov. 22, 2025 at 7:30 p.m. ET in Gainesville. The No. 20 Volunteers (7-3, 3-3 SEC) are favored, but history shows Florida (3-7, 2-5 SEC) has dominated this rivalry at home, winning 10 straight in The Swamp since 2003.

 

🔑 Key Storylines

  • Historic Struggles for Tennessee in Gainesville The Vols haven’t won at Florida since 2003, dropping 10 straight road games in the series. Florida has won 17 of the last 20 overall matchups.  

  • Florida’s Motivation Despite a disappointing season (3-7), the Gators are embracing the spoiler role. Interim coach Billy Gonzales leads a team that wants to protect home turf and ruin Tennessee’s finish.

  • Tennessee’s Stakes At 7-3, Tennessee is out of the College Football Playoff race but still ranked No. 20. A win would secure momentum heading into their final rivalry game against Vanderbilt and potentially improve bowl positioning.

  • Coaching Drama in Gainesville Florida fired Billy Napier in October, leaving Gonzales in charge. The offense has struggled since, but rivalry games often bring surprises.

📊 Team Comparison

Category Tennessee Volunteers Florida Gators
Record 7–3 (3–3 SEC) 3–7 (2–5 SEC)
Points per Game 43.4 20.8
Passing Yards/Game 318.3 217.1
Rushing Yards/Game 176.7 122.4
Opponent Points/Game 28.9 23.6
Opponent Passing Yards/Game 260.2 223.1
Opponent Rushing Yards/Game 130.1 143.2
 

Sources:

 

🔑 Key Players

Tennessee

  • QB Joey Aguilar: 2,941 passing yards, 22 TD, 10 INT

  • RB DeSean Bishop: 770 rushing yards, 10 TD

  • WR Chris Brazzell II: 873 receiving yards, 8 TD

  • LB Edwin Spillman: 65 tackles

  • DL Dominic Bailey: 6 sacks

Florida

  • QB DJ Lagway: 1,980 passing yards, 12 TD, 13 INT

  • RB Jadan Baugh: 808 rushing yards, 6 TD

  • WR Vernell Brown III: 473 receiving yards

  • LB Myles Graham: 55 tackles

  • EDGE Kamran James: 4 sacks

Prediction:  

  • In college football sometimes stats do not matter all that much.  This rivalry has been huge for many many years.   The problem for the Vols is that this game is in Florida.
  • The last time Tennessee beat Florida in Gainesville (The Swamp) was on September 20, 2003!  That is 22 years ago.
  • Look at the ATS history in this game at both locations, Florida has covered six out of the last seven.
  • In saying all that, the Vols also are not exactly a world beater this year.
  • Let’s now bring some numbers in the equation either way.   This Vols team has a pretty bad defense ranking 109th in success rate and 65th in defensive EPA.   Their offense is good, but they are not a team that anyone would want to lay points with.
  • Tennessee has also had some road struggles against Alabama and Mississippi State where they were very fortunate to win that game outright.
  • I think the play is the Gators, and we have 22 years of history here on our side.

Florida +4.5 – 2.5 stars

Missouri State vs Kennesaw State -6.5 O/U 57.5

  • Going back to the fade train here.
  • Don’t get me wrong.  I like this Feisty Owls team that has been playing some great ball in conference USA, but I really do not understand how they can be playing six points to the Missouri State Bears.
  • One big thing that I like to look for in my handicapping is improvement.   Since losing to SMU, the Bears have won six of their last seven games with wins against Liberty and FIU.
  • The Owls were on a similar run themselves, but they just got a reality check last week against the Jaguars.
  • If you go back a little farther, the Owls probably should not have beaten a UTEP team that was pretty much officiating out of the game.   UTEP actually won the box score there.
  • The Bears have a solid passing offense ranking 64th in drop back EPA.   This is where they can find success as the Owls only rank 105th in opponent passing success rate.   I see a close game here.  Take the Bears to cover.

Missouri State +6.5 – 2 stars

 

 

College Football Week 13 Sharp Money Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

As of Wednesday 11/19 – The Five most prominent sharp sides and totals:

Sharp Money On:

  • Miami -15.5 to -17.5 at Virginia Tech – 57% tickets and 81% of the money.
  • Arizona -4.5 to -7 hosting Baylor – 57% tickets and 68% of the money.
  • Old Dominion -9.5 to -12.5 at Georgia Southern – 50% tickets and 69% of the money.
  • Kennesaw State -4 to -6.5 hosting Missouri State – 55% tickets and 75% of the money.
  • Arkansas +10.5 to +8.5 at Texas – 61% tickets and 97% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Rutgers vs Ohio State under 56.5 to 54.5 – 76% tickets and 92% of the money.
  • Louisville vs SMU over 50.5 to 53.5 – 40% tickets and 69% of the money.
  • Kansas State vs Utah under 54.5 to 51.5 – 93% tickets and 93% of the money.
  • Michigan State vs Iowa under 43.5 to 42 – 51% tickets and 67% of the money.
  • Arkansas vs Texas over 55.5 to 57.5 – 21% tickets and 58% of the money.
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